Loan types Pure discount loans o Simplest form of loan o A borrower received money today and repays a single lump sum at some time in the future o Example: treasury bills (T-bills) o Example: if a T-bill promises to repay $10000 in 12 months, and the market interest rate is 7% how much will the bill sell for in the market? Answer- $9,345.79 Interest-only loans o Borrowers pay interest each period and repay the entire principal at some point in the future o Example: corporate bonds o Example: for a 3-year, 10% interest-only loan of $1000, the borrower would pay $100 at the end of first and second year and at the third year, 1000 along with $100. Answer- $1,000 Amortized loans o The borrowers pay a fixed amount each period (interest and principle), over time, reducing the balance to zero o Example: home mortgages, auto loans, business loans etc. o Example: construct a amortization schedule for a $1000, 10% annual rate loan with 3 equal pay Step 1: Step 2: Step 3: Interest Rates and Bond valuation What is a bond? Bond is a loan Firms can issue bonds to raise capital When you buy a bond, you are lending money to the company who issues it The company, in turn, promises you to pay periodic interest at specific dates and the principle when the bond reaches the maturity date Who issues bonds? Government bonds—or treasury bonds, are issued by the federal government Municipal bonds—or Munis, are issues by the state and local governments Corporate bonds—are issued by business firms Why do firms issue bonds? Do not want equity dilution (EPS consideration) Academic papers suggest that seasoned equity offerings (SEO) are often undervalued, and have to sell at discount Bond terminologies Par value o Stated face value of the bond o The amount of money firms repay you on the maturity date o Generally assumed to be $1,000 Coupon o Periodic interest payment o Set at bond issuance and remains in force during the bond’s life Coupon rate o Annual coupon payment/par value o A bond has par value of $1000 and coupon rate 5%, pays coupons $50 per year Maturity date o Pre-specified date on which the par value must be repaid o Most bonds have maturities ranging from 10 to 40 years Bond Valuation The value of any financial assets in the present value of the future cash flows the asset is generating Example: What is the value of a 10-year, 10% annual coupon bond, assuming the par value is 1,000 and the discount rate is 10% o Example: what is the price on a 20-year, $1000 par value, 8% annual coupon bond, assuming that the discount rate is 12% o N=20, I=12, PMT=80, FV=1000 PV=-701.22 Interest rate risk When interest rate rise, what happens to the value of outstanding bonds? o All else equal, the longer the time to maturity, the greater the interest rate risk o All else equal, the lower the coupon rate, the greater the interest rate risk Interest rates go up, bond prices go down When interest rates go down, prices go up o With lower interest rates, newly issued bonds yield less than “old” bonds, so the prices of these old bonds go up until the yields are the same Bond valuation cont. Coupon rate= market interest rate o Bond price=par value o Bond is selling at par Coupon rate > market interest rate o Bond price > par value o Bond is selling at a premium Coupon rate < market interest rate o Bond price < par value o Bond is selling at a discount Bonds with semiannual coupons Although some bonds pay coupons annually, the vast majority make payments semiannually Example: What is the value of a 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond, if rd=13%? o Example: a 25-year bond with a $1000 face value and a 6% coupon rate (with semi-annual payments) is currently selling for %634.88. What is the yield to maturity on this bond? o N=50, PV= -634.88, PMT= (6% *1000)/2 = 30, FV=1000, I=5% (semi-annual) (annual, convention) Yield=5% *2=10% Yield to maturity (YTM) Unlike the coupon rate, which is fixed, the bond's yield varies from day to day Yield to maturity is the rate of return we expect to earn if we buy the bond today and hold it to maturity Example: what is the YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon, $1000 par value bond, selling for $887? o Should YTM go up or down if the Fed raises interest rates? o Rationale: think of a competitive credit market Debt vs. Equity Debt is not an ownership interest in the firm. Creditors generally do not have voting power The interest payment on debt is considered a cost of doing business and is fully tax deductible. Dividend, however, is not tax deductible Unpaid debt is a liability of the firm. If it is not paid, it can lead to bankruptcy Bond ratings Designed to reflect the probability of a bond issue going into default Call provisions Many corporate and municipal bonds contain a call provision that gives the issuer the right to call the bonds for redemption The issuer normally pays a call premium, which often equals one year’s interest In most cases, bonds are not callable until several years after issue, generally 5-10 years Companies call bonds when interest rates have declined significantly since bonds were issued It reduces their interest expenses A call privilege is valuable to the firm but detrimental to long-term investors Callable bonds have a higher interest rate than the non-callable bonds Correct answer: E Inflation and interest rates Real vs. Nominal rates The fisher effect 1 + R = (1 + r) * (1 + h) o R: nominal rate o r: real rate o h: inflation rate Term structure of interest rates Relationship between interest rates (or yields) and maturities The yield curve is a graph of the term structure Yield of corporate bonds Yield are determined by more factors for bonds issued by corporations Default risk premium o The possibility of default/credit risk Liquidity premium o A liquid asset can be converted to cash quickly at a “fair market value” o Liquidity premium can be measured by trading volume Zero-coupon bond Pays no periodic coupons They often mature in ten or more years Receive the face value (usually $1000) at maturity Example: If you want to purchase a zero-coupon bond that has a $1000 face value and matures in three years, and you would like to earn 10% per year on it, what is maximum price you are willing to pay? o $1000/ (1 + 10%) ^3 = $751.3 Chapter 8: Stock Valuation Common stock Represents ownership Ownership implies control Stockholders elect directors Directors elect management Cash flow from stockholders If you buy a share of stock, you can receive cash in two ways: o The company pays dividends o You sell your shares As with bonds, the price of the stock is the present value of these expected cash flow Discounted Dividend Model The value of a stock is the present value of the future dividends expected to be generated by the stock o For common stocks, the future cash flows (dividends) are highly uncertain Example: if g=0 (zero growth) o If ABC corp. Has a policy of paying a $2 per share dividend every year, what is the stock price if the discount rate is 13%? The dividend stream would be a perpetuity Constant growth stock A stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate o If g is constant, the discounted dividend formula converges to o Rs > g Dividend yield and capital gains yield Dividend yield o D1/ P0 Capital gains yield o (P1 – P0) / P0 Total return (rs) o Dividend yield + capital gains yield Supernormal growth stocks What is g=30% for 3 years before achieving long-run growth of 6%? o Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value o However, the growth does become constant after 3 years Non-constant growth stocks Preferred stock Hybrid security Like bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders However, companies can omit preferred dividends payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy Chapter 9 Capital Budgeting 1: Net present Value and other investment criteria Capital budgeting Use similar valuation techniques to evaluate the investment by a firm in real assets, which we refer to as projects Project—any firm decision that involves cash outflows made in order to receive cash inflows o Example: new product, new software, new plant and machinery Capital Budgeting Rules Given the outflows and inflows, is the project a worthwhile investment? --capital budgeting decisions Net present value (NPV) The value of a project Sum of the PVs of all cash inflows and outflows of a project discounted at the cost of capital (WACC) o The higher the NPV, the higher the shareholder wealth Thus, NPV is the best selection criteria Calc Example o NPV rules o If projects are independent, accept if the project NPV >0 o If a project is mutually exclusive, same economic life, accept project with the highest positive NPV o Accept one if mutually exclusive, select both if independent Internal rate of return (IRR) Discount rate that makes NPV 0 IRR Rules o Accept project if IRR > WACC, because the project’s return exceeds its costs and there is some return left over to boost stockholders’ return o If projects are independent, accept both projects as both IRR > WACC=10% o If projects are mutually exclusive, accept S, because IRRS >IRRL Warning about IRR: Multiple IRRs o Under certain conditions a project may have more than one IRR o Cash inflows occur before cash outflows, cash flows change signs more than once o NPV assumes that project cash flows can be reinvested at WACC o IRR assumes that project cash flows can be reinvested at IRR Modified internal rate of return (MIRR) The discounted rate that causes the PV of a project’s terminal value (TV) to equal the PV of costs TV is found by compounding inflows at WACC o 0= PV outflow + TV inflow/ (1+ MIRR)^N MIRR vs NPV o MIRR is superior to regular IRR as an indicator of a project’s “true” rate of return o For independent projects, the NPV, IRR and MIRR always reach the same accept/reject conclusion/ they are equally as good o For mutually exclusive projects, the NPV is best because it selects the project that maximizes values Regular payback period Number of years required to recover a project’s cost The shorter the payback, the better the project Calculated by adding project’s cash inflows to its cost until the cumulative cash flow for the project turns positive Calculating o Warnings o An arbitrary decision rule since the critical number is arbitrarily chosen o Ignore the time value of money. Future cash inflows are directly compared with the project’s cost without discounting those future cash flows o Ignores the cash flows that occur after the critical number Discounted payback period