I suspect the cat is on the mat contrasts form the cat is probably on the mat. The effect that
it has varies according to the language is.
How does accuracy work for degreed beliefs?
 Greater confidence can make you more wrong or more right
 Maximize accuracy by matching confidence to strength of evidence
Calibration: with enough cases and the right feedback: we can see if our degrees of
confidence match the frequency of outcomes. And recalibrate our confidence if
necessary
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Using degrees of confidence…
No need for an opinion about everything. No need to take a side
We make gentle revisions, diminishing defensiveness/possession
Restricted search:
 Failure to seek out full range of possibilities or evidence
 Often a result of confirmation bias
Possibility freeze is the tendency to only consider one or two possibilities
Remedies for possibility freeze:
 Think of as many possibilities as we can
 Imagine them in detail
 Come up with reasons why they might occur
Evidence: any fact that supports a claim, in the sense that learning it should increase our
degree of confidence in that claim
The search for evidence: confirmation bias that arises due to insufficient search for evidence
doesn’t have to involve motivated reason, but seems to be much worse when it does