Abstracts
1
Session I
2:00 pm – 3:00 pm
Name
Poster Title
Poster #
Valan Anthos
The Frontier of Fairness in Climate Change: Newtok, Alaska
2
Allison Brooks
Laboratory Studies of Liquid-Liquid Phase Separation in Model Aerosol Particles
Relevant to Sea Spray Aerosol
4
Geselle Coleman
Environmental Influences on Quantum Use Efficiency in a Virginia Salt Marsh
6
Rachana Ghimire
A Deeper Look at Flood Insurance Risk Maps for Orleans Parish
8
Zabrenna Griffiths
Investigating the Effect of Soil Moisture on Net Ecosystem Exchange in Shale Hills
10
Megan Hanscom
Strategies for Women’s Success in STEM
12
Alex Kaltenbaugh
The Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric Teleconnections from 1851 to 2014
14
James Kinney
Comparing Kriging Techniques: Spatiotemporal Versus Pooled-Spatial
Interpolations of Temperature Anomalies
16
Emily Lamm
Intersectionality in Classroom Culture: Navigating Interconnected Contexts and
Identities
18
Elijah Laue
The Impact of Observed Tropical Cyclone Characteristics on Storm Surge Heights
for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
20
Eugenia Preston
Justice, Risk and Climate Change: A Case Study of Deep Uncertainties in Sealevel Rise Projections
22
Lyndsie Slater
How Carbon Dioxide Changes with a Synoptic Weather Event
24
Adam Sokol
Eddy Covariance Measurement of Methane Emissions from a Dairy Farm Lagoon
26
Jeffery Taylor
Meaningful Applications of Software Development Models
28
Jamie Vornlocher
Analysis of Carbon Isotope Changes in Organic Matter during the PaleoceneEocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
30
Ayesha Wilkinson
Tropical Cyclone Awareness and Preparedness in Cape Verde
32
1
Session II
3:00 pm – 4:00 pm
Name
Poster Title
Poster #
Daneisha Blair
Observed Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and the Maximum
Intensity of Tropical Cyclones
1
Avery Bowers
Possible Linkages between Aerosols and Respiratory Health in West Africa
3
Zoë Brooke Zibton
Jet Stream’s Influence on Clouds as Indicated by Radiative Flux Energy
5
Sebastián Cintrón
Del Valle
Alkalinity-Salinity Relationship in the Chesapeake Bay
7
Todd Emmenegger
Is a Changing Climate Affecting the Tropical Cyclone Behavior of Cape Verde?
9
Faith Groff
Does North American Monsoon Heating Influence the Formation of the Pacific
Subtropical Anticyclone?
11
Jiahao Han
Human Heat Stress: Major Health Issue of Global Warming
13
Elaine Hinrichs
Quantifying the Spatial Distribution of Urban Methane Emissions Using TowerBased Atmospheric Measurements
15
Chris Husson
Decision Making in Combined Capacity Expansion and Energy Markets
17
Austin Jordan
Recent Trends in Heat Index and Wind Chill over the Continental United States
19
Gillern Maguranye
Optimal Flow Modeling in Electrical Power Distribution: with Focus on the
Integration of Intermittent Renewable Generation in the Future
21
Claudia Mazur
Sea Surface Temperature and Snowfall: How Warming Waters Can Contribute
to Larger Snow Storms
23
Kayla Montgomery
Bayesian Inference for Climate Science: Examples Using RSTAN
25
Yanrong Mu
Spatial Interpolation for Missing Temperature Data
27
Alexander Pusch
Intergenerational Equality: Quantitatively Analyzing Ethical Philosophy with
Integrated Assessment Modeling
29
Giselle Redila
Foundation for an Immersive Visual Analytics System to Support Climate
Change Decision Making
31
Nick Vasko
Comparison of Hidden Markov Precipitation Models Using the Continuous
Ranked Probability Score
33
2
Undergraduate Research Symposium on Climate
Science and Risk Management:
Session I
3
The Frontier of Fairness in Climate Change:
Newtok, Alaska
Valan Anthos1,2 and Martin Vezér3
1Allegheny College, Meadville, PA
16335, USA
of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA
3Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA 16802, USA
2University
The town of Newtok lies at the intersection of physical and social vulnerability
Valan Anthos
that exposes it to an astronomical amount of risk from climate change. The
SCRiM Summer Scholars
ethics of risk management is still a fairly new topic in philosophy, and
Hermansson and Hansson’s article “A Three-Party Model Tool For Ethical Risk Analysis” provides an
excellent road map in navigating how to evaluate the distribution of risk. Applying the seven guiding
questions from that article to the situation in Newtok provides a firm foundation and justification of the
unfair amount of risk the town has been exposed to. The specific focus on Newtok also helps to expand
current evaluations of risk distribution, bringing more attention to issues of history, context,
compensation of non-market values, and autonomy. In assessing the distribution of risk with climate
change, there needs to be an all-encompassing view to not only identity unfairness, but understand the
nuanced conditions that allow these situations to arise in the first place. A more holistic philosophical
analysis can help to justify demands for reparations, and empathize the importance of Indigenous
autonomy in mitigating risk.
Laboratory Studies of Liquid-Liquid Phase
Separation in Model Aerosol Particles Relevant to
Sea Spray Aerosol
Allison K. Brooks1, Delanie J. Losey2, and Miriam Arak Freedman2
1Department
of Environmental Studies, Randolph College, Lynchburg, VA 24503,
USA
2Department of Chemistry, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
16802, USA
Atmospheric aerosol particles composed of inorganic and organic components
can change morphology at different relative humidities, which may impact
their effects on climate. These particles experience phase transitions, including
phase separation, efflorescence, and deliquescence. Liquid-liquid phase separation occurs in particles
that have organic and inorganic components; the salt becomes concentrated at low relative humidity
and salts out the organic component to form a separate phase within the aerosol particle. Sodium,
magnesium, and calcium ions are abundant in marine atmospheres from sea spray; therefore, it is vital
to understand the compositional effects these ions have on phase transitions of the aerosol particles.
The effects of composition on model aerosol particles were investigated within an environmental
chamber with an optical microscope. The particles were prepared by mixing the inorganic salt with 3,3dimethylglutaric acid and water and then spraying aerosolized particles on hydrophobically coated glass
Allison Brooks
REU in Climate Science
4
microscope slides. Various systems used in these laboratory studies investigated the effects of sodium,
magnesium, and calcium cations with chloride and sulfate anions. Results suggest the cation effect is
small and that the anion effect is more pronounced. These effects on phase transitions are important
due to their different light scattering and absorbing properties, uptake of water, reactivity with other
atmospheric components, effects on air quality parameters, and other effects that likely vary with
compositional changes.
Environmental influences on Quantum Use
Efficiency in a Virginia Salt Marsh
Geselle Coleman1, Jesus Ruiz-Plancarte2, Jose Fuentes2, and
Raymond Najjar2
1Department
of Physics, Atmospheric Science, and Geoscience, Jackson State
University, Jackson, MS 39217, USA
2Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Tidal wetlands perform a number of important ecosystem services, such as
carbon
sequestration, water quality improvement, and nutrient control.
Geselle Coleman
However, quantitative relationships between tidal wetland productivity and
REU in Climate Science
environmental factors are lacking. In this study, data from a flux tower in a
Virginia salt marsh are used to assess the gross primary productivity (GPP), defined as the total amount
of carbon dioxide assimilated by vegetation, and investigate the effect of air temperature, inundation
level, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) on the quantum use efficiency (GPP/PAR) from June
to November of 2015. The quantum use efficiency was lowest during the middle of the day, presumably
due to temperature and light stress. Quantum use efficiency also declined from summer to fall, with
temperature the likely driver of the decline because inundation did not change and PAR decreased. The
findings should be helpful in the development of process-based and remote-sensing models of tidal
wetland productivity.
A Deeper Look at Flood Insurance Risk Maps for
Orleans Parish
Rachana Ghimire1 and Martin Vezér2
1Department
of Environmental Studies and Department of Economics, Washington
and Lee University, Lexington, VA 24450, USA
2Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA 16802, USA
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) “preliminary” Flood
Insurance Risk Map (FIRM) for Orleans Parish will become “effective” on
Rachana Ghimire
September 30th, 2016, replacing the outdated effective map of 1984. The FIRM
SCRiM Summer Scholars
determines flood insurance requirements and helps guide flood risk
management. It may also have an impact on socially vulnerable populations. In order to examine
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differences between the 1984 and 2016 FIRMs, and to interpret how socially vulnerable members of the
community could be affected by the 2016 FIRM, we apply a Geographic Information System (GIS)
analysis to three data-sets obtained from government and industry sources. We show how the new
effective FIRM (2016) indicates that a larger amount of area in Orleans parish is less prone to flooding
than the previous FIRM (1984/1999) as well as how socially vulnerable populations lie on the 100-year
and 500-year floodplains. We also note several concerns about the accessibility of FEMA resources and
offer recommendations for improving the transparency in its data repository.
Investigating the Effect of Soil Moisture on Net
Ecosystem Exchange in Shale Hills
Zabrenna Griffiths1, Yuting He2, and Kenneth J. Davis2
1School
of the Environment, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University,
Tallahassee, FL 32307, USA
2Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Carbon sinks have the ability to absorb more carbon dioxide than what they
emit. The terrestrial biome acts as a huge carbon sink, however, this ability is
dependent on different environmental factors. This study focused on the
effects of soil moisture on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory, PA.
It was hypothesized that the strength of the carbon sink would grow with wetter soils. Data was
collected from the eddy-covariance flux tower, a COSMOS soil moisture probe, automated soil
respiration chambers and sap flow probes for May to August between the years 2011-2016. Since
temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) also have an effect on carbon fluxes, these
variables were isolated to properly study soil moisture and carbon fluxes. Generally, less carbon dioxide
was absorbed with increasing soil moisture. Since NEE is a combination of photosynthesis and
respiration, the effect of soil moisture was studied separately for each process. The sap flow data
showed a decrease in activity with increasing soil moisture, hence photosynthesis was most likely
reduced. Additionally, more carbon dioxide was emitted from respiration with increasing soil moisture.
These findings could possibly explain why the forest at Shale Hills tends to release more carbon dioxide
with increasing soil moisture.
Zabrenna Griffiths
SCRiM Summer Scholars
6
Strategies for Women’s Success in STEM
Megan Hanscom1 and Richard Duschl2
1Ursinus
2The
College, Collegeville, PA 19426, USA
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
A variety of barriers prevent young women from either choosing STEM fields
as a path of study in higher education, or continuing to work within the
industry after graduation. Gender Bias, assumed gender roles, and perceived
incompetence are all noted barriers for young women looking to work in STEM
fields. This poster focuses on the strategies that can be implemented to help
Megan Hanscom
encourage the success of young women in science, including strategies for
SCRiM Summer Scholars
schools and teachers, parents, and young women and men in social
situations. Women’s retention rates in science fields are well below the workforce average, leading to a
less diverse work force focused important national problems. The absence of women in STEM leads to
male-centric work forces that can be exclusionary and aggressive towards women in the field. By
focusing on early intervention that teaches both girls and boys the worth of women in science, more
women can stay in STEM fields leading to a more diverse and advanced work force focused on today’s
pressing issues.
The Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric
Teleconnections from 1851 to 2014
Alex D. Kaltenbaugh1 and Steven B. Feldstein2
1Department
of Earth Sciences, Millersville University, Millersville, PA 17551, USA
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department
Atmospheric teleconnections are large-scale spatial patterns that characterize
the linkages between different weather conditions in different locations
Alex Kaltenbaugh
around the world. These patterns are long-lasting and can have great impacts
REU in Climate Science
on weather and climate over time. This study used SOM (self-organizing map)
analysis to generate the dominant sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies over the time period from 1851 to
2014 as well as each pattern’s frequency of occurrence for the months from December to February.
A 2X2 SOM grid for the North Pacific and for the North Atlantic was generated. For the North Pacific,
the dominant patterns are the positive and negative phases of Pacific/North American (PNA) and
Western Pacific (WP) patterns. The corresponding North Atlantic teleconnections are the two phases of
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns. These patterns were identified by
correlating the SOM frequencies with indices of major teleconnection patterns for the time period from
1950 to 2014. The positive PNA decreased in frequency from 1850 to 1940, while the WP patterns
underwent two large-amplitude oscillations over the time period. On the other hand, the North Atlantic
patterns did not exhibit any large amplitude trends or oscillations. In addition to this, both phases of the
PNA were found to have statistically significant coherence with the Niño 3.4 SST time series at periods of
7
4 and 3 years, while the positive WP and PNA patterns showed statistically significant coherence with
the September/October Barents and Kara Seas sea ice concentration at periods of 4 and 2 years.
Comparing Kriging Techniques: Spatiotemporal
Versus Pooled-Spatial Interpolations of
Temperature Anomalies
James R. Kinney1 and Jared W. Oyler2
1Pomona
College, Claremont, CA 91711, USA
and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Earth
This project presents a new approach to creating gridded climate datasets
from spatiotemporal point observations. Many current interpolations of
James Kinney
climate data use deterministic inverse distance weighting type techniques,
SCRiM Summer Scholars
which do not fully capture the underlying spatiotemporal covariance structure
of the data. Here, we show that by using spatiotemporal kriging techniques, we can more accurately
interpolate annual temperature anomalies. We fit spatiotemporal variograms to point observations
using a sum-metric covariance model. We then compared the resulting interpolations to those from a
pure spatial kriging approach. Cross validation showed that the spatiotemporal approach significantly
improved the MAE and RMSE compared to the pure spatial approach. For minimum and maximum
temperature anomalies respectively, MAE decreased from .63 to .33°C and .72 to .31°C and RMSE
decreased from .78 to .42°C and .91° to .40°C. Fitting a spatiotemporal variogram was often a subjective
and intensive process; however, this result suggests the increased accuracy is worth the additional
computational effort.
Intersectionality in Classroom Culture: Navigating
Interconnected Contexts and Identities
Emily Maxim Lamm1 and Richard Duschl2
1Sustainable
Climate Risk Management Summer Scholar, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department of Curriculum & Instruction of Education, Pennsylvania State
University, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
With the rapidly intensifying challenge of climate change, it is now imperative
that students gain climate literacy and become actively involved citizens. Yet,
Emily Lamm
attaining this is largely contingent on training teachers to manage the
SCRiM Summer Scholars
interdisciplinary thinking and complexity inherent to navigating classroom
culture. With the advent of the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), expectations for students
have been bolstered. In order to fulfill these elevated expectations, robust professional development
programs must be established to prepare teachers for effective classroom management. These
programs have three critical components: addressing problems emerging in classrooms, providing
8
ongoing coaching and feedback, and being sustained for a minimum of 2-3 years. Furthermore, while
there has been ample scholarship on how identities can lead to disparate outcomes for students in
science, it has primarily focused on singular identities. As a result, there is a need to integrate and
understand how these complex identities interact within and between students through the lens of
intersectionality - the overlap of race, class, and gender. Additionally, the interdisciplinary ways of the
Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) structure encourage critical thinking and collaboration,
and are thus incorporated into this research as another means of facilitating the success of all students.
Fusing notions of intersectionality and interdisciplinary learning provides a complimentary blend that
urges us to move away from oversimplification, and to instead convey information in a situated context.
Ultimately, the goal is to ensure that diverse student populations are served, achievement gaps are
minimized, and an overarching transdisciplinary framework is established.
The Impact of Observed Tropical Cyclone
Characteristics on Storm Surge Heights for the U.S.
Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Elijah Laue1 and Andra Reed2
1Department
of Physics and Astronomy, Dickinson College, Carlisle, PA 17013, USA
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennyslvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department
Tropical cyclones are among the costliest natural disasters in the world; storm
surge associated with tropical cyclones is the anomalous rise of waters above
Eli Laue
SCRiM Summer Scholars
typical tidal levels, and can be particularly destructive and costly. Climate
model results in recent studies have found that flood heights in New York are increasing not only due to
rising relative sea levels, but also due to changing tropical cyclone characteristics. Here, we investigate
the observational record of the North Atlantic basin to see if the same trends occur in changing tropical
cyclone characteristics. Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Best Tracks
Dataset and the SurgeDat Database from the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP),
values for pressure, wind, radius of maximum wind (RMW), latitude, longitude, storm surge, and storm
tide were obtained for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during the time period 1850 – 2015. A
principal component analysis was completed for basin wide tropical cyclones impacting the U.S.
coastline using characteristics of RMW, wind, and pressure. The principal component analysis indicated
that, among the tropical cyclone characteristics that we investigated that impact surge, RMW is
weighted most heavily, accounting for 58.9% of the variance in storm surge heights. Wind speed, a
measure of storm intensity, was the secondary component, accounting for 40% of the variance in storm
surge heights. Consistent with previous studies, quantile-quantile plots comparing distributions of wind,
pressure, and storm surge before and after 1970 found that the very strongest storms tend to become
slightly stronger in the later time period. Using New Orleans, LA and Wilmington, NC as case studies, it
was found that the basin wide trends in tropical cyclone surge heights and storm characteristics can be
seen on a smaller scale. The results from the observational record were consistent with climate model
results found in recent studies, indicating that the most severe storms may have become more severe in
the modern time period, and that variance in storm surge is primarily due to RMW and secondarily due
to wind speed. Although the results presented here do not include the impacts of sea level rise, we
none-the-less see a trend towards potentially stronger storms, which may produce slightly larger storm
9
surge heights in the modern time period compared to dates prior to 1970, increasing flood risk along the
coast in the modern time period. When considering that sea levels are almost certain to continue rising
significantly in coming centuries, compounding any increases in flood risk associated with increased
storm surge heights, these results indicate the need for serious adaptation and mitigation strategies
along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Justice, Risk and Climate Change: A Case Study of
Deep Uncertainties in Sea-level Rise Projections
Eugenia Preston1 and Martin Vezér2
1Washington
and Lee University, Lexington, VA 24450, USA
and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Earth
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth and Fifth
Assessment Reports present sea level rise (SLR) projections without explicitly
quantifying the potential contribution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)
Nina Preston
SCRiM Summer Scholars
because the rate of WAIS disintegration is deeply uncertain. New research
indicates that the collapse of WAIS could overwhelm the IPCC’s most recent
maximum projected SLR by 2100 of 185 mm (IPCC AR5, p. 1168), increasing the projection to 3.3 m
(3300 mm) (Pollard et al., 2015, p. 112 ). Such a scenario presents serious ethical problems, especially
when considering that many people who are most vulnerable to SLR have contributed the least to global
warming. Here we present an analysis of the precautionary principle that takes into account concerns of
deep uncertainty and justice in the context of SLR, further motivating and justifying preemptive climate
change mitigation and adaptation measures. While other accounts of deep uncertainty, justice, and the
precautionary principle treat these epistemic and ethical considerations separately, we identify
important relationships among these topics that highlight connections among climate change science,
ethics and public policy.
How Carbon Dioxide Changes with a Synoptic
Weather Event
Lyndsie Slater1, Kenneth Davis2, Sandip Pal2
1Department
of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, Texas Tech
University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
2Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Lyndsie Slater
REU in Climate Science
There would be more carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere if it were not for
the natural land sink over North America due to photosynthetic activity of
plants like forests and corn belts. This study aims to understand the effects of synoptic weather events
on CO2 variability. It was investigated using the summer of 2010 measurements by first finding the day
10
of frontal passage and then finding the corresponding hour of passage from available near-surface
meteorological data. In situ CO2 measurements on the NOAA towers at WBI (Iowa) and LEF (Wisconsin)
were used to study diurnal cycles and were then compared to the observations of the WRF model
simulations. Between 1 June 2010 through 30 September 2010 there were nine cold fronts that passed
through both tower locations. WBI, which is surrounded by a corn belt, has the larger variability with
amplitudes on the order of 35-45 ppm. This is compared to LEF, which is surrounded by a forest, which
has fewer days with large variability with amplitudes on the order of 15-25 ppm. The day (24 Aug) that
had large variability at both locations were then compared to the WRF model to understand how well
the model can detect the impact of frontal passages on CO2 variability. The variability in the diurnal
cycles for both towers in the model were similar to the observations. Future studies focusing on
measurements at similar geographic locations would definitely help obtain a detailed understanding on
the impact of frontal events on CO2 variability.
Eddy Covariance Measurement of Methane
Emissions from a Dairy Farm Lagoon
Adam B. Sokol1, Thomas Lauvaux2, Scott J. Richardson2, and James
Hlywiak2
1Department
of Geology & Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
2Department
Livestock manure management in concentrated dairy operations is a known
source of methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas. Recently, anaerobic waste
lagoons have emerged as a more common manure management technique. Thus, their associated CH4
emissions are increasingly relevant to national greenhouse gas inventories and local air quality. Our
objective was to characterize the variability of summertime CH4 emissions from a lagoon at a large dairy
facility in central Pennsylvania that uses a flush system to manage the waste of 2,600 dairy cattle.
Continuous flux measurements were taken over two weeks in July using the eddy covariance (EC)
method, which uses high-frequency gas concentration and three-dimensional wind speed
measurements to calculate turbulent fluxes from a source area. After data filtration based on turbulence
characteristics and source area, the average CH4 flux density from the lagoon was estimated to be
99 μmol m-2 s-1. This implies daily lagoon emissions of 881 kg CH4, corresponding to an average emission
rate of 340 g CH4 per cow per day. We observed no apparent relationship between temperature or
relative humidity and CH4 flux, though an extended measurement period may be needed to better
quantify any relationship that may exist. Our emission measurements fall in the high end of the range of
estimates found in the literature. These results could have important implications for greenhouse gas
inventory development and emission mitigation strategies.
Adam Sokol
REU in Climate Science
11
Meaningful Applications of Software Development
Models
Jeffery Taylor II1 and Richard Duschl2
1Jackson
State University, Jackson, MS 39217, USA
of Curriculum & Instruction of Education, Pennsylvania State
University, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department
Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time, and as such warrants
an incredible amount of research. The software produced by climate scientists
to
analyze that research is complex and often not easily adapted from one
Jeffery Taylor
SCRiM Summer Scholars
project to the next. This project examines the ways in which the agile software
development method can benefit climate scientists by using engineering
techniques that will keep climate software updated.
Analysis of Carbon Isotope Changes in Organic
Matter during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal
Maximum (PETM)
Jamie R. Vornlocher1, Allison A. Baczynski2, Shelby L. Lyons2, and
Katherine H. Freeman2
1Department
Jamie Vornlocher
REU in Climate Science
of Geology, State University of New York at New Paltz, New
Paltz, NY 12561, USA
2Deparment of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University
Park, PA 16802, USA
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a hyperthermal event that
took place approximately 56 million years ago. This episode of rapid global warming coincided with a
perturbation of the carbon cycle, marked by a release of isotopically depleted (d13C) carbon into the
ocean-atmosphere in amounts comparable to projected anthropogenic carbon release. Resulting carbon
isotope excursions (CIE) are preserved within the rock record and can be used as to monitor carbon
release during this climate episode via total organic carbon (TOC; ᵟ13Corg) and inorganic carbon (ᵟ13Cinorg)
records.
Two shallow marine sediment cores were taken in Maryland for analysis of TOC and changes in ᵟ13C, as
previous studies in the region have focused largely on inorganic carbon. The addition of organic analyses
is important due to marked carbonate dissolution and incomplete d13Cinorg records as a result of ocean
acidification during the PETM. Ultimately, using carbon isotopes from global warming events in geologic
history can lead to better predictions of future impacts of anthropogenic warming.
12
Tropical Cyclone Awareness and Preparedness in
Cape Verde
Ayesha Wilkinson1 and Gregory Jenkins2
1Florida
State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department
Cape Verde or Cabo Verde, made up of 10 islands which are about 350 miles
off the west coast of Africa, lies the country of Cape Verde comprised of ten
islands situated in the Atlantic Ocean off of the west coast of Africa in the
Ayesha Wilkinson
Atlantic Ocean, is one nation at risk from the changing climate and tropical
SCRiM Summer Scholars
cyclone development due to its location. Future climate change through
warmer ocean temperatures could threaten the entire population, economics development, and public
health. Cape Verde does not have a radar so tracking tropical development is almost impossible expect
through satellite data. Cape Verde does not have experience with tropical cyclones and is an
independent nation therefore Cape Verde is extremely vulnerable. The goal of this project is to assist
the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Geofisica in Cape Verde’s and the citizens through
preparedness. This occurred through communicating weather risk effectively in the form of flyers,
website design, and educational modules. Tropical cyclone watches and warning flyers were created to
communicate the weather hazards to people who do not have internet access. The website designed
was created for government officials, broadcast meteorologists, and any with internet access.
Educational modules were designed to teach children from grade school to young adults and family to
prepare for a tropical cyclone and inform the various impacts. I will continue to work with INMG to keep
Cape Verde prepared for future tropical cyclones.
13
Undergraduate Research Symposium on Climate
Science and Risk Management:
Session II
14
Observed Relationship Between Sea Surface
Temperature and the Maximum Intensity of
Tropical Cyclones
Daneisha S. Blair1, Jenni L. Evans2, and Alex M. Kowaleski2
1Department
Daneisha Blair
REU in Climate Science
of Physics and Mathematics, Southern University A&M College, Baton
Rouge, LA 70813, USA
2Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
A consequential issue of global warming is that it increases sea surface
temperature (SST), potentially increasing the energy available to tropical cyclones (TCs). Although a
warm ocean is a prominent factor for TC formation, this raises the question of whether TCs are able to
become more intense due to increases in SST. The aim of this study is to document the relationship
between SST and TC intensity in five ocean basins. TC position and intensity data are obtained for a 33year period (1982-2014) from the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific, East Pacific, North Indian, and
Southern Hemisphere basins. SST and SST anomaly data for each TC position and time (as well as two
days before and two days after TC passage) are obtained from the 0.25o NOAA Optimum Interpolation
Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) dataset. We examine the relationship between SST and intensity at all
times for all TCs, as well as the relationship between SST and TC maximum intensity. We also investigate
how TC passage affects SST by analyzing how SST changes from two days before to two days after TC
passage. We find that higher SST values are associated with more intense TCs, though the vast majority
of TCs are much weaker than the maximum intensity observed at each SST. We also find that the degree
of SST reduction during TC passage shows slight positive correlations with TC intensity and with prestorm SST.
Possible Linkages between Aerosols and
Respiratory Health in West Africa
Avery S Bowers1 Adjoa Ronke Coker2 Dr. Gregory Jenkins3
1Department
Avery Bowers
REU in Climate Science
of Environmental Systems Engineering, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park PA 16802, USA
2School of International Affairs, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
PA 16802, USA
3Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park PA 16802, USA
While many studies have been conducted pertaining the environment and its
link to human health, few studies explore this correlation in West African countries. There are three
distinct climatic zones within West Africa. The northern territories consist of an arid terrain, termed the
Sahel region. There is the semi-arid zone which includes the mid region of the western countries termed
the Sahelo-Sundan region. Within the southern parts of West Africa, the climate is sub-humid and
termed the Guinean region. The effect of Saharan dust and the biomass burning from the Guinean
region, influence the seasonal trends of aerosols. The objectives for this research was to find seasonal
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trends of aerosols in West African countries using satellite data from NASA’s MODIS and the MERRA
model. World Health Organization for Burkina Faso in 2005-2007 was used to examine the relationship
between AOD and meningitis outbreaks. After examining the seasonal trends, countries like Cape Verde
exhibit aerosol optical depth peaks during May-July in comparison to Ghana and Burkina Faso who peak
during March. Through exploration and analysis MERRA suggest that biomass burning contributes most
of the aerosol concentration in the Guinean region while the Saharan dust contributes to the aerosol
concentration in the Sahel region, but the linkage between respiratory health and aerosols is inadequate
since health data on a monthly scale is difficult to obtain. In regards to Burkina Faso, when peaks of AOD
occurred, meningitis outbreaks occurred soon after.
Jet Stream’s Influence on Clouds as Indicated by
Radiative Flux Energy
Zoë A. Brooke Zibton1, Qian Li2, Sukyoung Lee2
1Department
of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of WisconsinMadison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
2Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
As the global temperature increases, there are numerous effects on global
circulation, including changes in the spatial pattern of clouds, radiative energy
Zoë Brooke Zibton
flux, and the location of the jet stream. Using 300-hPa zonal wind and Clouds
REU in Climate Science
and the Earth’s Radiative Energy System (CERES) observations of top-of-theatmosphere radiative energy flux data, this study explores the lead-lag relationship between the
poleward shift in the jet stream for the austral summers from 2001 through 2014. Composite analysis of
daily data indicates that the poleward jet shift leads 2 to 6 days. To determine whether there is a
statistically significant relationship this study uses composite analysis with a Monte Carlo significance
test. Additionally, this study uses individual layers of clouds, separating high, medium, and low cloud
cover to assist in interpreting the short and longwave radiation cloud forcing patterns, therefore
supporting the evidence of the jet-radiative energy flux relationship. Latitude-time evolution patterns of
low-level clouds correspond to shortwave radiative energy flux anomalies and additionally, high-level
clouds correspond to longwave radiative energy flux anomalies. These results suggest that changes of
the radiative energy flux patterns arise as a response to the poleward shift in the southern hemisphere
jet stream through its influence on cloud forcing.
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Alkalinity-Salinity Relationship in the Chesapeake
Bay
Sebastián M. Cintrón Del Valle1, Raymond G. Najjar2, Maria
Herrmann2, and Sreece Goldberger2
1Department
Sebastián Cintrón Del Valle
REU in Climate Science
of Physics, University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez, Mayagüez, Puerto
Rico 00681
2Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Estuaries are a significant source of atmospheric CO2, a major greenhouse gas.
However, it is not known whether the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States, is a
source or sink of CO2. Extensive pH measurements in the Bay offer the possibility of estimating the airwater CO2 flux if robust relationships between alkalinity, the acid neutralizing capacity of a water body,
and salinity can be established. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the alkalinity-salinity
relationship in the Chesapeake Bay based on more than 18,000 alkalinity measurements made between
1985 and 2015. It was found that seven segments of the Bay could be grouped into three different linear
functions, suggesting that alkalinity is conserved in the Bay and has properties that change depending
on the freshwater endmember (the riverine source). The highest freshwater endmember was 1.21 mol
m-3 for the Potomac River, the lowest one was 0.41 mol m-3 for the York and Rappahannock Rivers, and
an intermediate freshwater endmember was 0.79 mol m-3 for the remaining four segments. The linear
relationships were very strong, with R2 between 0.70 and 0.99. For some segments, most notably the
Potomac River, the scatter of the data increases with decreasing salinity, which is due, in part, to
seasonal and interannual variations in the freshwater endmember.
Is a Changing Climate Affecting the Tropical Cyclone
Behavior of Cape Verde?
Todd W. Emmenegger1, Michael E. Mann2, Jenni L. Evans2, and
Gregory S. Jenkins2
1Department
of Mathematics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department
An existing dataset of synthetic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks derived from
climate change simulations were used to explore TC variability within a 250 km
Todd Emmenegger
REU in Climate Science
radius of the Cape Verde Islands (16.5388N, 23.0418W). The synthetic sets
were examined according to genesis point location, track projection, intensity, frequency, and
seasonality within the observational era (1851 AD to present). These factors of TC variability have been
shown to be strongly related to climate oscillations, thus the historical era was grouped by the
increasing and decreasing regimes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the main development region
(MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean and then further analyzed. Numerous studies have examined Atlantic Basin
activity throughout this era; the goal of our study is to investigate possible variations in TC behavior
around Cape Verde, ultimately determining whether Cape Verde experiences similar fluctuations in
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activity as observed basin-wide. We find that several facets of TC variability such as intensity,
seasonality, and genesis point location around Cape Verde are not significantly different to that of the
entire basin, thus forecasts of the entire basin in these respects may also apply to our site. A long-term
trend of increasing TC frequency can be identified basin-wide within the observed set, yet activity
around Cape Verde does not display this same behavior observably or in any synthetic set. A relationship
between the location of genesis points and the regimes of SST fluctuation is shown to be existent. We
find both more observed and synthetic genesis points within the vicinity of Cape Verde during cool
periods, and an eastward and equatorward shift in cyclogenesis is evident during warm regimes. This
southeastern shift in genesis points attributes to the increased intensities of TCs seen during periods of
warmer SST. Years of increased SST are also linked to an earlier seasonality in Cape Verde.
Does North American Monsoon Heating Influence
the Formation of the Pacific Subtropical
Anticyclone?
Faith P. Groff1, David J. Stensrud2, and Andrew C. Ross2
1Department
of Geological Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405,
USA
2 Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Faith Groff
REU in Climate Science
Global circulation patterns during the boreal summer are characterized by lowlevel subtropical highs over the oceans and monsoon rainfall over the continents. Rodwell and Hoskins
(2001) hypothesized that northerly winds in the eastern Pacific, which help maintain the subtropical
high, are a response to diabatic heating from monsoon convection. Using a simple model, monsoon
convection was found to produce subsidence to the northwest of the monsoon region, which then led to
enhanced, low-level northerly winds below the region of subsidence. If this mechanism is operating,
then increases in monsoon convection should lead to increases in low-level northerly flow over the
eastern Pacific. To further explore this proposed relationship, data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
from 1979 – 2015 were used. Rainfall data were first utilized to define a domain for the North American
monsoon region, with results showing that upward vertical motion at 500 hPa was co-located with this
region. To the northwest of the monsoon region, off the coast of California, the reanalysis shows an area
of strong subsidence and surface northerly winds as suggested by the theory. Correlations between
each of these components of the mechanism were then calculated to explore if the hypothesized
physical mechanism is apparent in the data. Results indicated condensational heating from the monsoon
rainfall was negatively correlated to omega at 500 hPa, as expected, however this upward motion was
not correlated to subsidence off the coast of California. Furthermore, the northerly winds underneath
the region of subsidence were not correlated with the amount of monsoon precipitation received, as
proposed. The lack of strong correlations between the three components indicates that monsoon
heating is not a driving mechanism in the formation and maintenance of the Pacific subtropical
anticyclone.
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Human Heat Stress: Major Health Issue of Global
Warming
Jiahao Han1 and James Kasting2
1Department
of Physics, Dickinson College, Carlisle, PA 17013, USA
of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park,
PA 16802, USA
2Department
Human heat stress is already a major health issue in many parts of the world,
and is becoming more serious as the climate warms. Previous work by
Sherwood
and Hooper has shown that exposure to an environment with wet
Jacky Han
SCRiM Summer Scholars
bulb temperatures in excess of 35oC for more than a few hours can result in
fatal heat stroke. Maximum wet bulb temperatures today are typically less than
o
31 C, so it appears this lethal threshold is comfortably far off. Our computer simulation shows that heat
stroke threshold is much lower for people who are involved in physical activities, exposed to direct
sunlight, obese, or in otherwise poor health conditions. Our results suggest that global temperature
increases of a few degrees could trigger large number of heat-related deaths within the next few
decades.
Quantifying the Spatial Distribution of Urban
Methane Emissions Using Tower-Based
Atmospheric Measurements
Elaine Hinrichs1, Kenneth Davis2
1Oberlin
College, Oberlin, OH 44074, USA
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department
Methane (CH4), the main component of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse
gas. Accurate estimates of the amount and spatial distribution of CH4 leakage
from natural gas systems are needed to reduce CH4 emissions and climate
impacts. Previous results from the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) in Indianapolis, Indiana
indicate that the typical disparity between higher estimates of CH4 emissions from atmospheric
measurements and lower estimates from source inventories may be due to diffuse natural gas leakage
and downstream usage not accounted for in the source inventory. We set out to quantify the spatial
distribution of CH4 emissions in Indianapolis using a network of tower measurements, and to compare
diffuse total city emissions estimated from tower measurements and boundary layer budget methods to
the disparities between previous top-down and bottom-up estimates. In 2015, atmospheric CH4
concentrations were continuously measured from 9 towers in Indianapolis. The difference in CH4
concentration between 10 pairs of towers was calculated for afternoons when the wind was blowing
across both towers. CH4 flux was estimated using the boundary layer budget approach and assumptions
about boundary layer depth and wind speed. Preliminary results indicate areas with evidence of diffuse
CH4 emissions between towers, areas with evidence of either CH4 sinks between towers or CH4 emissions
Elaine Hinrichs
SCRiM Summer Scholars
19
near one tower, areas with no evidence of consistent emissions, and clear evidence of high CH4
emissions from the large landfill within the city. Total city CH4 emissions estimates were below the range
of previous INFLUX estimates because sinks outweighed emissions. The tower-based estimate from only
diffuse sources was -9.5 ± 12.7 Gg CH4/year, which gives no clear evidence of widespread emissions and
does not account for the difference between earlier top-down and bottom-up estimates. These results
do indicate a spatial distribution of diffuse CH4 emissions and potential CH4 sinks in Indianapolis worthy
of further investigation and action. To strengthen this analysis, future work should incorporate data
available for 2014 and 2013, analyze all 20 tower combinations, and improve the accuracy of flux
calculations.
Decision Making in Combined Capacity Expansion
and Energy Markets
Chris Husson
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
Naturally monopolistic energy markets are specifically prone to market
failures. In response, implementations of different types of regulations create
unique consequential outcomes. While capacity markets and energy markets
do not operate successfully on their own, combined the two markets provide a
Chris Husson
more optimal market equilibrium. In order to analyze such, this research set
SCRiM Summer Scholars
out to model firms competing under an independent system operator (ISO) in a
combined capacity expansion and energy market. While the current work is restricted by simplifying
assumptions such as fixed marginal costs, certainty of actions, and representing only a single decision
making firm, the model can be expanded in the future to relax such assumptions and reflect a more
accurate market equilibrium.
Recent Trends in Heat Index and Wind Chill over
the Continental United States
Austin Jordan, David W. Titley, Sonya K. Miller, and Amanda M.
Walker
Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
An article in Nature from Egan and Mullin (2016) concluded that 80% of the
U.S. population has experienced improving weather conditions from 1974 2013, a period in which the globe experienced significant warming. However,
Austin Jordan
REU in Climate Science
the authors' use of primarily average values overlooks extreme events that
might influence or alter their conclusion. This study considers the same
question of recent changes in quality of weather, but in the context of changing weather extremes,
which are stressful on people and society. To assess the past 40 years of weather in this context,
extremes in discomfort caused by temperature, humidity, and wind were evaluated on a daily timescale.
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Daily values of Heat Index and Wind Chill were calculated and analyzed over the continental United
States from 1976 - 2015. Results of trend line analysis show the frequency of uncomfortable and
dangerous Heat Indices is increasing in most regions of the U.S. and the country as a whole, and that
dangerous wind chill events are occurring much less often nationwide. Using the Q-Q plot method,
variations in the highest Heat Index values from region to region were also observed, while
the coldest Wind Chill values warmed across the contiguous U.S. in the most recent half of the 40-year
period. Danger and discomfort from extreme heat is an increasing concern for much of the country,
while extreme cold is becoming less of a concern.
Optimal Flow Modeling in Electrical Power
Distribution: with Focus on the Integration of
Intermittent Renewable Generation in the Future
Gillern Maguranye and Mort Webster
Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM), The Pennsylvania
State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
With the aim of meeting the ever increasing demand of electrical power,
power stations emit a lot of carbon dioxide which is a major contribution to
Gillern Maguranye
global warming. The way most power supply systems are structured makes it
SCRiM Summer Scholars
more difficult to include renewable power sources as major suppliers so as to
reduce these emissions. A program which solves optimization problems of choosing dispatch of power
generation while accounting for the constraints of the transmission network was developed in GAMS. In
electrical engineering these problems are referred to as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problems. The
program provides a solution which minimizes the cost of generation or reduce carbon dioxide emissions
by taking into account constraints such as generation levels of each power station, characteristics of
flow of current and demand levels. From the different models used results showed power to be
dispatched from each generator and the direction it should flow in, phase angle differences at each
node and voltage levels at which the power should be transmitted. In order to satisfy the objective
function power must be transmitted just as the results show. This developed program provides a base
for the development of a system which includes renewable sources of energy and it also helps in
reducing carbon dioxide emissions from high voltage supply systems.
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Sea Surface Temperature and Snowfall: How
Warming Waters Can Contribute to Larger Snow
Storms
Claudia I. Mazur1 and Andra Reed2
1Department
of Geology, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, MA 01075, USA
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
2Department
The northeast coast of the United States has seen a number of historic snowfall
events in recent years; the impacts of these snowfall events have been
particularly noticeable in major cities. Examples of these types of historic snowfall
events include both the large snowstorm that impacted the mid-Atlantic in early 2016, hitting New York
City (NYC) and Washington DC, and the extreme amount of snowfall that occurred in the Boston area in
2015. These large snowfall events have often occurred in conjunction with unusually warm sea surface
temperatures in the Atlantic basin. Here, we perform a statistical analysis of North Atlantic sea surface
temperature data and snowfall amounts in Boston, NYC and DC to investigate the historical relationship
between major snowfall events and Atlantic sea surface temperature and to understand how the
relationship between these quantities has evolved. Sea surface temperatures and observed snowfall
amounts in these regions were obtained from the National Climate Data Center. We find that when
there is an increase in sea surface temperature throughout the mid-Atlantic, there tends to be less
monthly snowfall in the northeast. However, larger, individual snowstorms tend to occur in conjunction
with increased sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño events. Our results indicate that, in a
changing climate with warming sea surface temperatures, residents of NYC, DC and Boston can expect
less monthly snowfall overall, but may experience more frequent, powerful individual snowfall events.
Claudia Mazur
SCRiM Summer Scholars
Bayesian Inference for Climate Science: Examples
Using RSTAN
Kayla Montgomery1, Ben Lee1,2 and Murali Haran1,2
1Department
of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
16802, USA
2The Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Bayesian inference is an important and commonly used approach for fitting
statistical models and making predictions based on the fitted model. It is
Kayla Montgomery
SCRiM Summer Scholars
particularly useful for complex models where multiple data sets and models
need to be combined, and it is very useful for handling missing data. Such
challenges arise frequently in atmospheric science. This poster helps to give a quick introduction to
Bayesian inference basics for climate scientists, with an example of the use of the RSTAN software
package for carrying out Bayesian inference. I will explain Bayesian inference using RSTAN through a
linear regression example. I will also provide results from a simulation study to compare frequentist and
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Bayesian approaches to constructing intervals for parameter estimates. In addition, I will provide a
simple example to illustrate how Bayesian inference is convenient for handling missing data.
Spatial Interpolation for Missing Temperature Data
Yanrong Mu1, Ben Lee1,2 and Murali Haran1,2
1Department
of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
16802, USA
2The Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Modern data sets in atmospheric science are often spatial, that is, each data
point may be associated with a location. This research project is focused on
statistical methods for spatial interpolation, in particular for interpolating
Yanrong Mu
temperatures across weather stations. I studied “kriging”, an interpolation
SCRiM Summer Scholars
approach based on Gaussian process models. I fitted the model using maximum
likelihood methods and I used cross-validation with mean squared prediction error (MSPE) as a criteria
to evaluate different versions of the model. I found that exponential and spherical covariance models
are both good approaches for fitting a temperature data set in the U.S. I also found that elevation is a
significant predictor of temperature. For large data sets, standard kriging methods are computationally
infeasible. Hence, I also studied the application of a method called lattice kriging which is efficient for
interpolating large data. In the context of the U.S. temperatures data set, I discuss how well standard
kriging and lattice kriging work in practice.
Intergenerational Equality: Quantitatively
Analyzing Ethical Philosophy with Integrated
Assessment Modeling
Alexander W. Pusch1 and Gregory G. Garner2
1Department
of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, CA 91711, USA
Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA 16802, USA
2
Prioritarianism and Utilitarianism are two economic welfare philosophies that
dictate fair distributions of resources. Utilitarianism is currently widely used in
economic modelling and focuses on maximizing overall welfare (or utility) in a
society--which is quantified using a social welfare function (SWF) that weighs each individual or
generation equally. Prioritarian SWFs evaluate well-being in a manner that prioritizes those who are
most disadvantaged. This study applies the two philosophies to intergenerational resource distribution
in the context of climate change. We review and evaluate two common intertemporal “weightings”, or
discount rates, along with two levels of Prioritarian inequality aversion and apply them as four different
objective functions in an integrated assessment model. Each discount rate and level of inequality
Alex Pusch
SCRiM Summer Scholars
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aversion represents a unique stakeholder preference and is optimized subject to William Nordhaus’s
Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model using a multi objective evolutionary algorithm. This
algorithm yields a solution set of Pareto-optimal policies that demonstrate all of the possible tradeoffs
among the four objectives that maximize social welfare. Furthermore, we select seven solutions as if
they were chosen by decision-makers to evaluate model outcomes. We then quantitatively assess the
basis of fit, uniformity, and convergence of the optimization to infer how the underlying assumptions of
integrated assessment modeling affect the difficulty in solving our new problem formulation.
Foundation for an Immersive Visual Analytics
System to Support Climate Change Decision
Making
Giselle Redila, Mark Simpson, Jan Oliver Wallgruen, Alexander
Klippel
The Network For Sustainable Climate Risk Management, The Pennsylvania State
University
ChoroPhronesis, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State
University
Giselle Redila
SCRiM Summer Scholars
The art of accessing data, conducting analyses, and visualizing such has
become relatively easier thanks to contributions in the sciences as well as the
ever-increasing innovations present in this digital age. With such innovations, the door to exploring and
applying these new technologies into research has never been wider.
The task of visualizing data can be revolutionized and transformed with virtual reality (VR) and placed
into an immersive visual analytics workbench, granting researchers and decision makers the ability to
virtually explore the data sets and conduct analyses. VR technologies, such as the Oculus Rift and the
HTC Vive, grant such new opportunities for individuals to interact with data like never before. With VR,
researchers and stakeholders can graph data and explore each point’s attributes to discover correlations
and arrive at results, whilst immersing themselves in the art of VR data visualization.
With Unity, a game development platform, and C#, a programming language, the possibility for
researchers to conduct their own analyses and visualize such has been verified with the work of this
project. The 3D visualization of the DICE Snake Model (Garner et al. 2016) in Unity has laid the
foundation for the incorporation of data visualization into virtual reality devices.
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Comparison of Hidden Markov Precipitation
Models Using the Continuous Ranked Probability
Score
Nick Vasko1, Ben Lee1,2 and Murali Haran1,2
1Department
of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
16802, USA
2The Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Precipitation is a very important component of climate change as it is related
to the risk of drought and flooding. Modeling precipitation is challenging for
several reasons. A time series of daily precipitation is “zero-inflated”, meaning
that a large proportion of the readings are zeroes. This rules out standard Gaussian models.
Furthermore the serial correlation among observations may vary with location. Another issue with
precipitation data is that they tend to have extreme values, that is, their distribution exhibits a “heavy
right tail”. We describe a Hidden Markov model based approach to modeling daily precipitation time
series, incorporating a Weibull distribution to allow for heavy tails. We compare the Continuous Ranked
Probability Score (CRPS) with the more commonly used Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) for selecting
among models. We find that selecting models via CRPS leads to better precipitation models. We apply
our methods in the context of two case studies: daily time series from Warren, Pennsylvania, and
Phoenix, Arizona.
Nick Vasko
SCRiM Summer Scholars
The Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) in Climate Science is a ten-week program is available to
undergraduate students to pursue research in climate science, scientific inquiry, and science communication. The
program seeks to expose students to the full range of scientific exploration, from generation hypotheses to
communicating research findings and their implications to other scientists and the general public. Research
projects will involve the spectrum of climate science from fundamental physical processes of the atmosphere,
oceans, and cryosphere and theoretical climate modeling, to interactions entailing the biosphere, and impacts on
various natural and human systems. Program directors for the REU in Climate Science are Dr. Raymond Najjar and
Dr. Jon Nese.
SCRiM Summer Scholars is a nine-week program which enables undergraduates and early career graduate
students to work full-time on independent research projects under the mentorship and support of SCRiM
researchers. Research projects include modeling experiments using simple Earth system and/or economic models,
development of educational resources on climate and risk, analyses of geophysical datasets (observed or
modeled), and meta-analyses based on synthesis of existing literature. Program directors for the SCRiM Summer
Scholars program are Dr. Robert Nicholas and Katerina Kostadinova.
The 2016 Penn State Undergraduate Research Poster Symposium on Climate Science and Risk Management was
organized by Dr. Raymond Najjar, Dr. Jon Nese, Katerina Kostadinova, and Dr. Andra Reed
Thank you for joining us!
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