GEO Resource Book Training Module Pilot Testing Meeting Module 5: Integrated Analysis of Environmental Trends and Policies August 4-5 Montevideo, Uruguay 1 Outline (for instructor, not for presentation) • Overview of Steps in Integrated Environmental Assessment • Overview of Analytical Framework • Presentation and Exercise #1 • Step 1: What is Happening to the Environment and Why? Slides Exercise 1 0 1 0 8 40 min 8 35 min 15 60 min 4 50 min 40 slides ??min • Presentation and Exercises #2 and #3 • Step 2: What are the Impacts on Ecosystems, Human Wellbeing and the Economy? • Presentation and Exercises #4 and #5 • Step 3: What are we Doing About Environmental Change and is it Effective? • Presentation and Exercises #6 (multiple steps) • Step 4: Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? • Presentation and Exercises #7 and #8 2 This training plan needs to be 4 hours long. (60 min) Steps of IEA 5. How can we change the future through our decisions? 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? 2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human well-being and the economy? 1. What is happening to the environment and why? 3 Analytic Framework Integrated Analysis of Environmental Trends and Policies STEP 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces Human Induced Responses Societal actions and policy STEP 1. What is happening to the environment and why? Resilience Of ecosystems and communities Impacts Pressures Human and natural STEP 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? State Of the environment 4 On ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy STEP 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy? Example (facilitator prepare a local example and present using template on next slide) • Select one specific environmental issue that can be classified as environmental state; • Identify a general societal driving force with broad influence on the environmental state; • Identify a pressure directly affecting the environmental state; • Determine a linked impact on an ecosystem service and on human well-being; • Describe a way in which a community has already tried to adapt to a similar change and some additional policy responses that could reduce the pressure on the environmental state and/or facilitate the capacity of the community to adapt. 5 EXAMPLE (DIEGO fill in with Uruguay example) STEP 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces STEP 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? Responses Resilience Impacts Pressures State STEP 1. What is happening to the environment and why? 6 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy? STEP 1: What is happening to the environment and why? 5. How can we change the future through our decisions? 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? 2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human well-being and the economy? 1. What is happening to the environment and why? 7 STEP 1: What is happening to the environment and why? 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces Human Induced Responses Societal actions and policy 1. What is happening to the environment and why? Resilience Of ecosystems and communities Impacts Pressures Human and natural 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? State Of the environment 8 On ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems and ecosystems, human wellbeing wellbeing? and the economy? STEP 1: What is happening to the environment and why? A. What are priority environmental issues and conditions? B. What is causing environmental change? C. How can environmental conditions and their causes be characterized? 9 A. What are priority environmental issues and conditions? 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces Human Induced Responses Societal actions and policy 1. What is happening to the environment and why? Resilience Of ecosystems and communities Impacts Pressures Human and natural 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? State Of the environment 10 On ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy? A. What are priority environmental issues and conditions? • Why is prioritization necessary? • Who should decide what is a priority and what is not? • Based on what criteria should priorities be established? • What prioritization process could be used? 11 EXERCISE #1 • Form groups of 5 • Decide on region or country to focus on • Discuss and note down key specific environmental issues in selected region (Max 5) • Complete table by assigning specific environmental issue to more general categories Time available: 10 minutes for group work, 10 minutes plenary 12 PRIORITY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN: ……………………………….. Priority environmental issue General theme 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 13 B. What is causing environmental change? 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces Human Induced Responses Societal actions and policy 1. What is happening to the environment and why? Resilience Of ecosystems and communities Impacts Pressures Human and natural 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? State Of the environment 14 On ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy? B. What is causing environmental change? • What are key specific pressures directly causing the environmental changes identified? • How are broad social driving forces contributing to environmental change? 15 EXERCISE #2 • Form groups of 5 • Working in a small group, select a key environmental issue and related state, working backwards, identify a specific pressure and related to that pressure a driving force contributing to the problem • Now starting from the driving force, identify two other pressures and related to the pressure other environmental states; not multiple linkages between pressures and environmental states • Complete diagram and discuss in plenary Time available: 10 minutes for group work, 10 minutes in plenary 16 START HERE EXERCISE DRIVING FORCE PRESSURES ENVIRONENTAL STATE OF CONCERN 17 C. How can environmental conditions and their causes be characterized? • Need to describe change in quantitative and qualitative terms • Quantitative analysis requires indicators • Indicators to be identified based on selection criteria, such as: – – – – Data availability Relevance for issue Scientific validity Potential resonance with public and policymakers • Indicators can be related to driving forces, pressures and environmental states 18 EXERCISE #3 • Split into three groups, one group to focus on Driving Force, second on Pressure, third on Environmental State category • Agree on Driving Force – Pressure – State chain based on previously completed table • Each group to develop max 3 indicators for their respective category • Define indicator, identify unit of measure and potential data source as noted in table • Reconvene in plenary and complete table with information provided by the three groups Time available: 15 minutes for group work, 10 minutes in plenary 19 EXERCISE CATEGORY INDICATOR UNIT OF MEASURE State: ______________ Pressure: ______________ Driving force: ______________ 20 POTENTIAL DATA SOURCE STEP 2: What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human well-being and the economy? 5. How can we change the future through our decisions? 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? 2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human well-being and the economy? 1. What is happening to the environment and why? 21 STEP 2: What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human well-being and the economy? STEP 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces Human Induced Responses Societal actions and policy STEP 1. What is happening to the environment and why? Resilience Of ecosystems and communities Impacts Pressures Human and natural STEP 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? State Of the environment 22 On ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy STEP 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy? STEP 2: What are the impacts on ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy? • Types of impacts A. Impacts on ecosystems B. Impacts on human wellbeing C. Economic impacts • General impact characteristics – – – – Positive vs. negative Direct vs. indirect (mediated) Immediate vs. delayed Spatially localized vs. dispersed 23 A. Assessing impacts on ecosystems • Ecosystem services are the benefits that people gain from ecosystems • A change in an environmental state can impact on a range of ecosystem services [easier to think of specific places rather than in aggregate for an entire country or province] • These impacts can be identified with an ecosystem services framework (right) 24 From MA (2005) Example impact pathways on ecosystem services Impact on Ecosystem Services Provisioning services • Food – a change in the magnitude of fish catches • Freshwater – a change in the quantity of drinking water of an acceptable quality Change in Lake Water Quality Indicator: Phosphorus Concentration, or alga count, or extent of weed coverage Regulating Services • Regulation of human diseases – a change in the surface algae and weeds can impact on the prevalence of mosquitoes and other insect pests Cultural Services • the loss of a commercial fishing resource could alter social relations of a community • a higher algae and weed count in the lake could negatively impact the use of the lake for recreational swimming and fishing. 25 Possible Indicators • Average annual fish catch • Drinking water quality exceedances, or water treatment costs • Mosquito counts, or occurrence of malaria • Number of commercial fisherman • Local tourism revenue Enhanced or Degraded? Assess based on indicator trend Assess based on indicator trend Assess based on indicator trend Exercise #4 Identification of pathways for impact on ecosystem services • Work in plenary and focus on one of provisioning, regulating or cultural services (start with provisioning, move on to other two if time permits) • Identify which ecosystem services could potentially be impacted by an adverse change in the environmental STATE indicator identified previously as a priority issue. • One spokesperson from each group to report results in plenary Time: 20 minutes plenary 26 Impact on Ecosystem Services Provisioning services Regulating Services Cultural Services 27 Possible Indicators Enhanced or Degraded? B. Assessing impacts on human wellbeing • Vulnerability – Assessing vulnerability of society requires an assessment of what society is exposed to, along with their capacity to adapt to the changes. Vulnerability = function of: (Exposure to change, Adaptive Capacity) 28 Exposure Changes in: Impacts on: 29 Constituents of Wellbeing • health – including being strong, feeling well, and having a healthy physical environment; • good social relations – including social cohesion, mutual respect, good gender and family relations, and the ability to help others and provide for children; • security – including secure access to natural and other resources, safety of person and possessions, and living in a predictable and controllable environment with security from natural and human-made disasters; and • freedom and choice – including having control over what happens 30 Exercise #5 Identifying the linkages between changes in ecosystem services and human wellbeing • Using one of the ecosystem service identified previously, discuss in plenary how human wellbeing could be impacted by a change in the ecosystem service Time = 15 minutes 31 C. Assessing economic impacts • Environmental change can have real economic costs and benefits • Many environmental goods and services do not have a market price, therefore these costs and benefits are often hidden • Measuring real but hidden environmental costs and benefits is important, but usually difficult and involves significant uncertainties • (an advanced module on this topic is being developed) 32 STEP 3: What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? 5. How can we change the future through our decisions? 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? 3. Why are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? 2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human well-being and the economy? 1. What is happening to the environment and why? 33 STEP 3: What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? STEP 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces Human Induced Responses Societal actions and policy STEP 1. What is happening to the environment and why? Resilience Of ecosystems and communities Impacts Pressures Human and natural STEP 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? State Of the environment 34 On ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy STEP 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems, human wellbeing and the economy? STEP 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? • Understanding the role of human decisions and policies in influencing environmental conditions • Policies are formal or informal ‘rules of the game’ • They may apply to: – – – – Driving forces Pressures States Impacts 35 Examples of policy types • • • • • • • Laws and legal instruments – Mandatory disclosure – Standards International agreements and obligations – Bi- and multilateral environmental agreements – Trade agreements Economic instruments – Taxes – Subsidies Political statements and programs – Ministerial speeches – Party platforms Education and information policies – Public consultations – Awareness raising campaigns Sustainable development strategies – SD strategies – Support for national SD councils or roundtables Voluntary standards and mechanisms – Voluntary disclosure – Corporate reporting ETC. 36 Policy effects and effectiveness • Policy effects: the impact of policy mix on a given environmental issue • Policy effectiveness: actual vs. expected or desirable performance of policies or a policy 37 Policy analysis process A. Select and characterize environmental issue (state) of concern B. Develop ‘catalogue’ of related policy influences C. Identify relevant performance criteria D. Cluster policies according to type E. Characterize policy mix and identify gaps F. Determine overall effects of policy mix on environmental outcomes G. (Identify key individual policies and analyze their relative impact) 38 Exercise #6 • Policy analysis exercise builds on earlier SoE and impact analysis exercises; refer to tables completed as part of those exercises • Form groups of 3 and work through all steps of this exercise in this group • Steps follow stages presented in the previous flow diagram from A to G • Report back will be at the very end, but there will be time if needed for short plenary discussion to clarify methodological and conceptual questions between steps if needed 39 A. Select and characterize environmental issue (state) of concern • Select driving force – pressure – state chain from Exercise 2 • Identify an indicator for environmental state, pressure and driving force; you may simply adopt the indicators already identified in Exercise 3 • Draw an approximate trend line that in your best judgment describes reality • Note major changes in the indicator trend 40 Example: Indicator related to environmental issue (state) 41 Category and issue Indicator Chart Driving force: Pressure: State: 42 B. Develop ‘catalogue’ of related policy influences • Identify policy instruments applied with significant influence on the selected driving force(s), pressure(s) and state(s) • Make sure you do not limit your attention only to certain types of policy instruments (e.g., market based) while ignoring others (e.g., regulatory) • Try to define policy instrument in specific terms 43 Example: policy instruments for water quality Municipal taxes Driving Forces urban growth Responses various policy instruments Pressures sewage discharge State water quality of rivers 44 (Impacts) Category and issue Policies Driving force: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Pressure: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. State: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Criteria 45 C. Identify relevant performance criteria • Identify a performance criterion for the chosen driving force, pressure and state variable • Try to be as specific as possible • Consider examples of criteria 46 General types and examples of performance criteria Type of criteria Example Benchmark Comparison with a documented best-case performance related to the same variable within another entity or jurisdiction. The policy is evaluated based on its impact in a given jurisdiction compared with conditions in the benchmark or reference jurisdiction. Example: highest percentage of households connected to sewage system in a comparable entity in the same jurisdiction. Thresholds The value of a key variable that will elicit a fundamental and irreversible change in the behaviour of the system. The policy is evaluated based on its role in making the system move toward or away from the threshold in any given period. Example: maximum sustainable yield of a fishery. Principle A broadly defined and often formally accepted rule. If the definition of the principle does not include a relevant performance measure, the evaluator should seek a mandate to identify one as part of the evaluation. Example: the policy should contribute to the increase of environmental literacy. Standards Nationally and/or internationally accepted properties for procedures or environmental qualities. The policy is successful if it helps keep performance within specified limits. Example: water quality standards for a variety of uses. Policy-specific targets Determined in a political and/or technical process taking past performance and desirable outcomes into account. Example: official development assistance shall be 0.4 percent of national GNP. 47 Category and issue Policies Driving force: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Pressure: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. State: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Criteria 48 D. Cluster policies according to type • Using shorthand or code, transfer driving force, pressure and state policies from previous table into the “Policies” column of the table that follows • Going one by one, determine what is the general type of the given policy • Use the examples of policy types as possible categories but may also create new categories if necessary • Write the name of the policy category in the cells right under ‘Policy types’ • Place checkmark 49 Policies Driving force Policy types 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: Pressure 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: State 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 50 E. Characterize policy mix and identify gaps • Working with the results of the table you completed in the previous step please indicate perceived impact of policy on the given environmental issue by placing the appropriate symbol in the cell representing the policy: – – – – – – – – Highly positive impact: +++ Moderately positive: ++ Slightly positive: + Neutral: 0 Slightly negative impact: Moderately negative: - Highly negative: - - Policy impact unclear: ? • Identify policy types that are over or underrepresented • Identify policy types and/or specific policies that are currently absent but might have significant potential • Discuss opportunities and barriers for changing the policy mix, either by adding new or discontinuing existing policies or policy types 51 Types of policy gaps • Relevant policy not in place • Policy not implemented • Policy misfunctioning 52 Policies Driving force Policy types 1: 2: +++ -++ 3: 4: 5: Pressure 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: State 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 53 F. Determine overall effects of policy mix on environmental outcomes • Working in plenary, compare the performance criteria identified for the driving force, pressure and state with the relevant indicator trend • Prepare a statement on the overall success or failure of the policy mix to meet expected outcomes • Identify the potential key causes of success or failure based on the previous table that characterized policies based on their positive or negative impact • Formulate a diagnostic statement about the differential impact of various policies, highlighting successes and areas for improvement 54 G. (Identify key individual policies and analyze their relative impact) • (Advanced section, in development) 55 STEP 4: Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? 5. How can we change the future through our decisions? 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? 2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human well-being and the economy? 1. What is happening to the environment and why? 56 Step 4: Are We Reducing our Vulnerability and Building the Resilience of Ecosystems and Society? STEP 3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it effective? Driving Forces Human Induced Responses Societal actions and policy STEP 1. What is happening to the environment and why? Resilience Of ecosystems and communities Impacts Pressures Human and natural STEP 4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of ecosystems and society? State Of the environment 57 Vulnerability of ecosystems and human wellbeing STEP 2. What are the impacts on ecosystems and human wellbeing? Step 4: Are We Reducing our Vulnerability and Building the Resilience of Ecosystems and Society? • Recall Vulnerability = function of: (Exposure to change, Adaptive Capacity) Adaptive Capacity – the capacity of humans to influence and manage resilience Resilience - the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. Source: Walker et al. (2004) 58 Determinants of Adaptive Capacity (Smit et al. 2001).[1] Determinant Explanation Economic resources • Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity • Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options Technology • Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation options • Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop and/or implement technological adaptations Information and skills • Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacity • Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation Infrastructure • Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity, since it provides more options • Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity Institutions • Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climaterelated risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacity • Policies and regulations have constrain or enhance adaptive capacity Equity • Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacity • Both availability of, and entitlement to, resources is important [1] Smit, B., Pilifosova, O., Burton I., Challenger B., Huq S., Klein R.J.T. and Yohe, G. (2001): Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity; in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, 59 N.A. Adaptation and Vulnerability, (ed.) J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, Exercise #6 Assessing adaptive capacity – Group Discussion Instructions Using the environmental state change identified as a priority, and the information on specific impacts, address as a group the following questions. • • How have communities/sectors historically adapted to the change in this particular environmental state? What socio-economic and environmental factors do you feel influence a communities/sectors capacity to adapt to the changes? [can use the framework from the previous slide to guide thinking] Total time = 20 minutes. 60 Exercise #7 Analysis of policies directed at building adaptive capacity and resilience Instructions • In groups of five, using the environmental state change identified previously as a priority for this session, and the information on specific impacts, address the following questions. – What policy responses currently help and hinder a community‘s or sector‘s capacity to adapt to specific changes? – What is needed on the ground to make communities/sectors more resilient to potential future changes? • Select a spokesperson and report back in plenary Total time = 40 minutes (20 minutes groups; 10 minutes plenary) 61 END 62