GEO Resource Book
Training Module Pilot Testing Meeting
Module 5:
Integrated Analysis of Environmental Trends and Policies
August 4-5
Montevideo, Uruguay
1
Outline (for instructor, not for presentation)
• Overview of Steps in Integrated Environmental
Assessment
• Overview of Analytical Framework
• Presentation and Exercise #1
• Step 1: What is Happening to the Environment
and Why?
Slides
Exercise
1
0
1
0
8
40 min
8
35 min
15
60 min
4
50 min
40 slides
??min
• Presentation and Exercises #2 and #3
• Step 2: What are the Impacts on Ecosystems,
Human Wellbeing and the Economy?
• Presentation and Exercises #4 and #5
• Step 3: What are we Doing About Environmental
Change and is it Effective?
• Presentation and Exercises #6 (multiple steps)
• Step 4: Are we reducing vulnerability and building
the resilience of ecosystems and society?
• Presentation and Exercises #7 and #8
2
This training plan needs to be 4 hours long.
(60 min)
Steps of IEA
5. How can we change the future through our decisions?
4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of
ecosystems and society?
3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it
effective?
2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human
well-being and the economy?
1. What is happening to the environment and why?
3
Analytic Framework
Integrated Analysis of Environmental Trends and Policies
STEP 3. What are we doing about
environmental change and is it effective?
Driving
Forces
Human Induced
Responses
Societal actions
and policy
STEP 1. What is happening
to the environment and
why?
Resilience
Of ecosystems
and
communities
Impacts
Pressures
Human and
natural
STEP 4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
State
Of the
environment
4
On ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy
STEP 2. What are
the impacts on
ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy?
Example (facilitator prepare a local example and
present using template on next slide)
• Select one specific environmental issue that can be classified as
environmental state;
• Identify a general societal driving force with broad influence on the
environmental state;
• Identify a pressure directly affecting the environmental state;
• Determine a linked impact on an ecosystem service and on human
well-being;
• Describe a way in which a community has already tried to adapt to a
similar change and some additional policy responses that could
reduce the pressure on the environmental state and/or facilitate the
capacity of the community to adapt.
5
EXAMPLE (DIEGO fill in with
Uruguay example)
STEP 3. What are we doing about
environmental change and is it effective?
Driving Forces
STEP 4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
Responses
Resilience
Impacts
Pressures
State
STEP 1. What is happening
to the environment and
why?
6
2. What are the
impacts on
ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy?
STEP 1:
What is happening to the environment and why?
5. How can we change the future through our decisions?
4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of
ecosystems and society?
3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it
effective?
2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human
well-being and the economy?
1. What is happening to the environment and why?
7
STEP 1:
What is happening to the environment and why?
3. What are we doing about environmental
change and is it effective?
Driving
Forces
Human Induced
Responses
Societal actions
and policy
1. What is happening to the
environment and why?
Resilience
Of ecosystems
and
communities
Impacts
Pressures
Human and
natural
4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
State
Of the
environment
8
On ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy
2. What are the
impacts on
ecosystems and
ecosystems,
human wellbeing
wellbeing?
and the economy?
STEP 1:
What is happening to the environment
and why?
A.
What are priority environmental issues and conditions?
B.
What is causing environmental change?
C.
How can environmental conditions and their causes be
characterized?
9
A. What are priority environmental
issues and conditions?
3. What are we doing about environmental
change and is it effective?
Driving
Forces
Human Induced
Responses
Societal actions
and policy
1. What is happening to the
environment and why?
Resilience
Of ecosystems
and
communities
Impacts
Pressures
Human and
natural
4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
State
Of the
environment
10
On ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy
2. What are the
impacts on
ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy?
A. What are priority environmental
issues and conditions?
•
Why is prioritization necessary?
•
Who should decide what is a priority and what is not?
•
Based on what criteria should priorities be established?
•
What prioritization process could be used?
11
EXERCISE #1
•
Form groups of 5
•
Decide on region or country to focus on
•
Discuss and note down key specific environmental issues in selected region
(Max 5)
•
Complete table by assigning specific environmental issue to more general
categories
Time available: 10 minutes for group work, 10 minutes plenary
12
PRIORITY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN:
………………………………..
Priority environmental issue
General theme
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
13
B. What is causing environmental change?
3. What are we doing about environmental
change and is it effective?
Driving
Forces
Human Induced
Responses
Societal actions
and policy
1. What is happening to the
environment and why?
Resilience
Of ecosystems
and
communities
Impacts
Pressures
Human and
natural
4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
State
Of the
environment
14
On ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy
2. What are the
impacts on
ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy?
B. What is causing environmental change?
•
What are key specific pressures directly causing the environmental
changes identified?
•
How are broad social driving forces contributing to environmental change?
15
EXERCISE #2
• Form groups of 5
• Working in a small group, select a key environmental issue and
related state, working backwards, identify a specific pressure and
related to that pressure a driving force contributing to the problem
• Now starting from the driving force, identify two other pressures and
related to the pressure other environmental states; not multiple
linkages between pressures and environmental states
• Complete diagram and discuss in plenary
Time available: 10 minutes for group work, 10 minutes in plenary
16
START HERE
EXERCISE
DRIVING FORCE
PRESSURES
ENVIRONENTAL STATE OF CONCERN
17
C. How can environmental conditions and their
causes be characterized?
• Need to describe change in quantitative and qualitative terms
• Quantitative analysis requires indicators
• Indicators to be identified based on selection criteria, such as:
–
–
–
–
Data availability
Relevance for issue
Scientific validity
Potential resonance with public and policymakers
• Indicators can be related to driving forces, pressures and
environmental states
18
EXERCISE #3
•
Split into three groups, one group to focus on Driving Force, second on
Pressure, third on Environmental State category
•
Agree on Driving Force – Pressure – State chain based on previously
completed table
•
Each group to develop max 3 indicators for their respective category
•
Define indicator, identify unit of measure and potential data source as noted
in table
•
Reconvene in plenary and complete table with information provided by the
three groups
Time available: 15 minutes for group work, 10 minutes in plenary
19
EXERCISE
CATEGORY
INDICATOR
UNIT OF MEASURE
State:
______________
Pressure:
______________
Driving force:
______________
20
POTENTIAL DATA
SOURCE
STEP 2:
What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems,
human well-being and the economy?
5. How can we change the future through our decisions?
4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of
ecosystems and society?
3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it
effective?
2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human
well-being and the economy?
1. What is happening to the environment and why?
21
STEP 2:
What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems,
human well-being and the economy?
STEP 3. What are we doing about
environmental change and is it effective?
Driving
Forces
Human Induced
Responses
Societal actions
and policy
STEP 1. What is happening
to the environment and
why?
Resilience
Of ecosystems
and
communities
Impacts
Pressures
Human and
natural
STEP 4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
State
Of the
environment
22
On ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy
STEP 2. What are
the impacts on
ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy?
STEP 2:
What are the impacts on ecosystems, human
wellbeing and the economy?
•
Types of impacts
A. Impacts on ecosystems
B. Impacts on human wellbeing
C. Economic impacts
•
General impact characteristics
–
–
–
–
Positive vs. negative
Direct vs. indirect (mediated)
Immediate vs. delayed
Spatially localized vs. dispersed
23
A. Assessing impacts on ecosystems
• Ecosystem services are the
benefits that people gain from
ecosystems
• A change in an environmental
state can impact on a range
of ecosystem services [easier
to think of specific places
rather than in aggregate for
an entire country or province]
• These impacts can be
identified with an ecosystem
services framework (right)
24
From MA (2005)
Example impact pathways on ecosystem services
Impact on Ecosystem Services
Provisioning services
• Food – a change in the magnitude
of fish catches
• Freshwater – a change in the
quantity of drinking water of an
acceptable quality
Change in Lake
Water Quality
Indicator: Phosphorus
Concentration, or alga
count, or extent of
weed coverage
Regulating Services
• Regulation of human diseases – a
change in the surface algae and
weeds can impact on the
prevalence of mosquitoes and
other insect pests
Cultural Services
• the loss of a commercial fishing
resource could alter social
relations of a community
• a higher algae and weed count in
the lake could negatively impact
the use of the lake for recreational
swimming and fishing.
25
Possible Indicators
•
Average annual fish catch
•
Drinking water quality
exceedances, or water
treatment costs
•
Mosquito counts, or
occurrence of malaria
•
Number of commercial
fisherman
•
Local tourism revenue
Enhanced or
Degraded?
Assess
based on
indicator
trend
Assess
based on
indicator
trend
Assess
based on
indicator
trend
Exercise #4
Identification of pathways for impact on ecosystem services
•
Work in plenary and focus on one of provisioning, regulating or cultural
services (start with provisioning, move on to other two if time permits)
•
Identify which ecosystem services could potentially be impacted by an
adverse change in the environmental STATE indicator identified previously
as a priority issue.
•
One spokesperson from each group to report results in plenary
Time: 20 minutes plenary
26
Impact on Ecosystem Services
Provisioning services
Regulating Services
Cultural Services
27
Possible Indicators
Enhanced or
Degraded?
B. Assessing impacts on
human wellbeing
• Vulnerability
– Assessing vulnerability of society requires an
assessment of what society is exposed to,
along with their capacity to adapt to the
changes.
Vulnerability = function of:
(Exposure to change, Adaptive Capacity)
28
Exposure
Changes in:
Impacts on:
29
Constituents of Wellbeing
•
health – including being strong, feeling well, and having a healthy physical
environment;
•
good social relations – including social cohesion, mutual respect, good
gender and family relations, and the ability to help others and provide for
children;
•
security – including secure access to natural and other resources, safety of
person and possessions, and living in a predictable and controllable
environment with security from natural and human-made disasters; and
•
freedom and choice – including having control over what happens
30
Exercise #5
Identifying the linkages between changes in
ecosystem services and human wellbeing
• Using one of the ecosystem service identified previously, discuss in
plenary how human wellbeing could be impacted by a change in the
ecosystem service
Time = 15 minutes
31
C. Assessing economic impacts
• Environmental change can have real economic costs
and benefits
• Many environmental goods and services do not have a
market price, therefore these costs and benefits are
often hidden
• Measuring real but hidden environmental costs and
benefits is important, but usually difficult and involves
significant uncertainties
• (an advanced module on this topic is being developed)
32
STEP 3:
What are we doing about environmental change
and is it effective?
5. How can we change the future through our decisions?
4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of
ecosystems and society?
3. Why are we doing about environmental change and is it
effective?
2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human
well-being and the economy?
1. What is happening to the environment and why?
33
STEP 3:
What are we doing about environmental change
and is it effective?
STEP 3. What are we doing about
environmental change and is it effective?
Driving
Forces
Human Induced
Responses
Societal actions
and policy
STEP 1. What is happening
to the environment and
why?
Resilience
Of ecosystems
and
communities
Impacts
Pressures
Human and
natural
STEP 4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
State
Of the
environment
34
On ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy
STEP 2. What are
the impacts on
ecosystems,
human wellbeing
and the economy?
STEP 3.
What are we doing about environmental
change and is it effective?
• Understanding the role of human decisions and
policies in influencing environmental conditions
• Policies are formal or informal ‘rules of the
game’
• They may apply to:
–
–
–
–
Driving forces
Pressures
States
Impacts
35
Examples of policy types
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Laws and legal instruments
– Mandatory disclosure
– Standards
International agreements and obligations
– Bi- and multilateral environmental agreements
– Trade agreements
Economic instruments
– Taxes
– Subsidies
Political statements and programs
– Ministerial speeches
– Party platforms
Education and information policies
– Public consultations
– Awareness raising campaigns
Sustainable development strategies
– SD strategies
– Support for national SD councils or roundtables
Voluntary standards and mechanisms
– Voluntary disclosure
– Corporate reporting
ETC.
36
Policy effects and effectiveness
• Policy effects: the impact of policy mix on a
given environmental issue
• Policy effectiveness: actual vs. expected or
desirable performance of policies or a policy
37
Policy analysis process
A. Select and characterize environmental issue (state) of concern
B. Develop ‘catalogue’ of related policy influences
C. Identify relevant performance criteria
D. Cluster policies according to type
E. Characterize policy mix and identify gaps
F. Determine overall effects of policy mix on environmental outcomes
G. (Identify key individual policies and analyze their relative impact)
38
Exercise #6
• Policy analysis exercise builds on earlier SoE and impact
analysis exercises; refer to tables completed as part of
those exercises
• Form groups of 3 and work through all steps of this
exercise in this group
• Steps follow stages presented in the previous flow
diagram from A to G
• Report back will be at the very end, but there will be time
if needed for short plenary discussion to clarify
methodological and conceptual questions between steps
if needed
39
A. Select and characterize environmental issue
(state) of concern
• Select driving force – pressure – state chain from
Exercise 2
• Identify an indicator for environmental state, pressure
and driving force; you may simply adopt the indicators
already identified in Exercise 3
• Draw an approximate trend line that in your best
judgment describes reality
• Note major changes in the indicator trend
40
Example: Indicator related to environmental issue
(state)
41
Category and issue
Indicator
Chart
Driving force:
Pressure:
State:
42
B. Develop ‘catalogue’ of related policy influences
• Identify policy instruments applied with significant
influence on the selected driving force(s), pressure(s)
and state(s)
• Make sure you do not limit your attention only to certain
types of policy instruments (e.g., market based) while
ignoring others (e.g., regulatory)
• Try to define policy instrument in specific terms
43
Example: policy instruments for water quality
Municipal taxes
Driving
Forces
urban growth
Responses
various policy
instruments
Pressures
sewage
discharge
State
water quality
of rivers
44
(Impacts)
Category and
issue
Policies
Driving force:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Pressure:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
State:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Criteria
45
C. Identify relevant performance criteria
• Identify a performance criterion for the chosen driving
force, pressure and state variable
• Try to be as specific as possible
• Consider examples of criteria
46
General types and examples of performance criteria
Type of criteria
Example
Benchmark
Comparison with a documented best-case performance related to the same variable within another
entity or jurisdiction. The policy is evaluated based on its impact in a given jurisdiction compared
with conditions in the benchmark or reference jurisdiction.
Example: highest percentage of households connected to sewage system in a comparable entity in
the same jurisdiction.
Thresholds
The value of a key variable that will elicit a fundamental and irreversible change in the behaviour of
the system. The policy is evaluated based on its role in making the system move toward or away
from the threshold in any given period.
Example: maximum sustainable yield of a fishery.
Principle
A broadly defined and often formally accepted rule. If the definition of the principle does not include a
relevant performance measure, the evaluator should seek a mandate to identify one as part of
the evaluation.
Example: the policy should contribute to the increase of environmental literacy.
Standards
Nationally and/or internationally accepted properties for procedures or environmental qualities. The
policy is successful if it helps keep performance within specified limits.
Example: water quality standards for a variety of uses.
Policy-specific targets
Determined in a political and/or technical process taking past performance and desirable outcomes
into account.
Example: official development assistance shall be 0.4 percent of national GNP.
47
Category and
issue
Policies
Driving force:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Pressure:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
State:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Criteria
48
D. Cluster policies according to type
• Using shorthand or code, transfer driving force, pressure and state
policies from previous table into the “Policies” column of the table
that follows
• Going one by one, determine what is the general type of the given
policy
• Use the examples of policy types as possible categories but may
also create new categories if necessary
• Write the name of the policy category in the cells right under ‘Policy
types’
• Place checkmark
49
Policies
Driving
force
Policy types
1:
2:



3:
4:
5:
Pressure
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
State
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
50
E. Characterize policy mix and identify gaps
•
Working with the results of the table you completed in the previous step please
indicate perceived impact of policy on the given environmental issue by placing the
appropriate symbol in the cell representing the policy:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Highly positive impact: +++
Moderately positive: ++
Slightly positive: +
Neutral: 0
Slightly negative impact: Moderately negative: - Highly negative: - - Policy impact unclear: ?
•
Identify policy types that are over or underrepresented
•
Identify policy types and/or specific policies that are currently absent but might have
significant potential
•
Discuss opportunities and barriers for changing the policy mix, either by adding new
or discontinuing existing policies or policy types
51
Types of policy gaps
• Relevant policy not in place
• Policy not implemented
• Policy misfunctioning
52
Policies
Driving
force
Policy types
1:
2:
+++
-++
3:
4:
5:
Pressure
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
State
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
53
F. Determine overall effects of policy mix on
environmental outcomes
• Working in plenary, compare the performance criteria identified for
the driving force, pressure and state with the relevant indicator trend
• Prepare a statement on the overall success or failure of the policy
mix to meet expected outcomes
• Identify the potential key causes of success or failure based on the
previous table that characterized policies based on their positive or
negative impact
• Formulate a diagnostic statement about the differential impact of
various policies, highlighting successes and areas for improvement
54
G. (Identify key individual policies and analyze
their relative impact)
• (Advanced section, in development)
55
STEP 4:
Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of
ecosystems and society?
5. How can we change the future through our decisions?
4. Are we reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of
ecosystems and society?
3. What are we doing about environmental change and is it
effective?
2. What are the impacts of these changes on ecosystems, human
well-being and the economy?
1. What is happening to the environment and why?
56
Step 4: Are We Reducing our Vulnerability and
Building the Resilience of Ecosystems and
Society?
STEP 3. What are we doing about
environmental change and is it effective?
Driving
Forces
Human Induced
Responses
Societal actions
and policy
STEP 1. What is happening
to the environment and
why?
Resilience
Of ecosystems
and
communities
Impacts
Pressures
Human and
natural
STEP 4. Are we reducing
vulnerability and building the
resilience of ecosystems
and society?
State
Of the
environment
57
Vulnerability of
ecosystems and
human wellbeing
STEP 2. What are
the impacts on
ecosystems and
human wellbeing?
Step 4: Are We Reducing our
Vulnerability and Building the Resilience
of Ecosystems and Society?
• Recall
Vulnerability = function of:
(Exposure to change, Adaptive Capacity)
Adaptive Capacity – the capacity of humans to influence and
manage resilience
Resilience - the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and
reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially
the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.
Source: Walker et al. (2004)
58
Determinants of Adaptive Capacity (Smit et al. 2001).[1]
Determinant
Explanation
Economic resources
• Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity
• Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options
Technology
• Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation options
• Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop and/or
implement technological adaptations
Information and
skills
• Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacity
• Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and
appropriate adaptation
Infrastructure
• Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity, since it
provides more options
• Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity
Institutions
• Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climaterelated risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacity
• Policies and regulations have constrain or enhance adaptive capacity
Equity
• Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacity
• Both availability of, and entitlement to, resources is important
[1]
Smit, B., Pilifosova, O., Burton I., Challenger B., Huq S., Klein R.J.T. and Yohe, G. (2001): Adaptation
to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity; in Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
59 N.A.
Adaptation and Vulnerability, (ed.) J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani,
Exercise #6
Assessing adaptive capacity – Group Discussion
Instructions
Using the environmental state change identified as a priority, and the information on
specific impacts, address as a group the following questions.
•
•
How have communities/sectors historically adapted to the change in this particular
environmental state?
What socio-economic and environmental factors do you feel influence a
communities/sectors capacity to adapt to the changes? [can use the framework from
the previous slide to guide thinking]
Total time = 20 minutes.
60
Exercise #7
Analysis of policies directed at building adaptive capacity and resilience
Instructions
•
In groups of five, using the environmental state change identified previously as a
priority for this session, and the information on specific impacts, address the following
questions.
– What policy responses currently help and hinder a community‘s or sector‘s
capacity to adapt to specific changes?
– What is needed on the ground to make communities/sectors more resilient to
potential future changes?
•
Select a spokesperson and report back in plenary
Total time = 40 minutes (20 minutes groups; 10 minutes plenary)
61
END
62