Tentan NEGB01&NEGB22 Ekonometri Tuesday 25th of May 2021 • • • • There are 5 questions. This exam gives a maximum of 20 points. Each (sub)question has the same number of points. 10 points are required to pass the exam. • • No dictionaries, no calculators. You can answer the questions in English or Swedish. Some friendly advice: • • • Write clearly and write on each pages the number of the question answered. If you cannot solve an entire question completely, don't give up! Hand in your solutions and indicate where you got stuck, rather than handing in a blank paper. Allocate your time proportionally among the questions. Good Luck! Klaas Staal 1 1. SPSS & Some Multiple Choice Questions Consider the following SPSS output: Graph 1 2 Graph 2 Suppose, in addition, that the auxiliary regression of ‘tenure’ on ‘years of education’, ‘years of potential experience’ and ‘age’ gives an R2 equal to 1. a. b. c. d. Give the regression model that is estimated in this SPSS output. What is the interpretation of the estimated intercept? What is the interpretation of the first estimated slope coefficient? What is the interpretation of the fourth estimated slope coefficient? 3 e. Some multiple choice questions. For each question, give the subindex of the question (i, ii, iii, iv) and the corresponding answer (1, 2, 3, …, 16). i) In the regression model π’π’π‘π‘ = πππ’π’π‘π‘−1 + πππ‘π‘ , ππ is the: (1) Coefficient of autocorrelation; (2) First-order coefficient of autocorrelation; (3) Coefficient of autocorrelation at lag 1; (4) All of the above. ii) If the error terms π’π’π‘π‘ satisfy the assumptions of the classical linear regression model, then in the regression model π’π’π‘π‘ = πππ’π’π‘π‘−1 + πππ‘π‘ , the expected value of ππ is: (5) -1; (6) 0; (7) 1; (8) Between -1 and 1. iii) The estimation method that accounts for the fact that observations coming from populations with greater variability are given less weight than those coming from populations with smaller variability is: (9) OLS; (10) GLS; (11) MLE; (12) 2SLS. iv) In the regression model ππππ = π½π½1 ππ0ππ + π½π½2 ππ1ππ , if π½π½1is the intercept coefficient then the value that ππ0ππ can take are:: (13) All zeros; (14) All ones; (15) Any value; (16) Any positive value. 4 2. SPSS & Some Multiple Choice Questions Continue with using the model and SPSS output in Question 1. a. Independent from the estimation, explain which sign you would expect for the third slope coefficient. b. What is the meaning of the estimated value of the standardized coefficient for “years of education”? c. Why are the estimated slope coefficient(s) (not) jointly statistically significantly different from 0 at the 5% significance level? d. Why would you (not) expect a perfect multicollinearity problem if the model in Question 1 is extended with tenure and age? 5 e. Some multiple choice questions. For each question, give the subindex of the question (v, vi, vii, viii) and the corresponding answer (17, 18, 19, …, 32). v) Which estimation method obtains BLUE estimators when estimating a regression model in the presence of autocorrelation? (17) OLS; (18) GLS; (19) MLE; (20) 2SLS. vi) Using the OLS estimation technique in the presence of autocorrelation will lead to: (21) Accurate t- and F-tests; (22) Inaccurate t- and F-tests; (23) Efficient estimates; (24) Biased estimates. vii) In the Park test ln π’π’οΏ½ππ2 = ln ππ 2 + π½π½ ln ππππ + ππππ is the suggested regression model. If we find π½π½ to be statistically significantly different from zero, this means that: (25) The homoscedasticity assumption is satisfied; (26) The homoscedasticity assumption is not satisfied; (27) There is autocorrelation; (28) There is no autocorrelation. viii) Heteroscedasticity may arise due to various reasons. Which one of these is NOT a reason: (29) Extremely low or high values of the (in)dependent variables; (30) Correlation of variables over time; (31) Incorrect specification of the functional form of the model; (32) Incorrect transformation of variables. 6 3. SPSS & Some Multiple Choice Questions Continue with using the model and SPSS output in Questions 1 and 2. a. Do you think that there is a heteroscedasticity problem? Explain. On which graph do you base your answer? b. Do you think that there is an autocorrelation problem? Explain. On which graph do you base your answer? c. Do the Durbin-Watson d test of autocorrelation. That is, give the test statistic, the critical values at the 5% significance level, and the interpretation of the test outcome. d. Is the estimated R2 statistically significantly larger than 0? Why (not)? 7 e. Some multiple choice questions. For each question, give the subindex of the question (ix, x, xi, xii) and the corresponding answer (33, 34, 35, …, 48). ix) Multicollinearity is not a problem if the objective of the estimation is: (33) Forecasting only; (34) Prediction only; (35) Getting reliable estimators of the parameters; (36) Prediction or forecasting. x) As a remedy to multicollinearity, which of the following may lead to a specification bias? (37) Transforming the variables; (38) Adding new data; (39) Dropping one of the collinear variables; (40) First differencing the successive values of the variable. xi) Dummy variables classify the data into: (41) Inclusive categories; (42) Mutually exclusive categories; (43) Qualitative categories; (44) Quantitative categories. xii) Suppose you estimate the differentials in average annual salary of professors for three categories – those employed at a fully governmentfunded college (π·π·1ππ ), those employed at a partially government-funded college (π·π·2ππ ), and those employed at a private college (π·π·3ππ ), using ππππ = π½π½1 + π½π½2 π·π·2ππ + π½π½3ππ π·π·3ππ + π’π’ππ . π½π½1 then represents the mean annual salary of professors working in: (45) Fully government aided colleges; (46) Partially government aided colleges; (47) Private colleges; (48) All three colleges. 8 4. SPSS & Linear Regression & Some Multiple Choice Questions Continue with using the model and SPSS output in Questions 1, 2 and 3. a. Are the residuals normally distributed? Why (not)? b. Explain why adding the variable (years of education)2 can solve a potential heteroscedasticity problem. c. Suppose you want to estimate whether the effect of education on wages is different for males and females. Give the regression model in which the intercept and slope parameter of ‘years of education’ can differ by gender, while keeping the effects of marriage and ‘years potential experience’ constant. d. Test whether education has a positive effect on hourly wages at the 1% significance level. Give the test statistic, the critical value and the test outcome. 9 e. Some multiple choice questions. For each question, give the subindex of the question (xiii, xiv, xv, xvi) and the corresponding answer (49, 50, 51, …, 64). xiii) In the regression model ππππ = π½π½1 + π½π½2 ππ2ππ + π½π½3 ππ3ππ + π’π’ππ testing the overall significance of the model using an F-test, the degrees of freedom used is (k-1),(n-k), where k is equal to: (49) 2; (50) 3; (51) 4; (52) The sample size. xiv) When the R2 for a regression model is equal to 0, the F value is equal to: (53) Infinity; (54) A high positive value; (55) A low positive value; (56) 0. xv) Which of the following formulations of the Cobb-Douglas production function is NOT intrinsically linear: (57) (58) (59) (60) π½π½ π½π½ π½π½ π½π½ ππππ = π½π½1ππ2ππ2 ππ3ππ3 ππ π’π’ππ ; π½π½ π½π½ ππππ = π½π½1ππ2ππ2 ππ3ππ3 + ππ π’π’ππ ; ππππ = π½π½1ππ2ππ2 ππ3ππ3 π’π’ππ ; All of the above. xvi) π π οΏ½ 2 can take values: (61) Between 0 and 1; (62) Between -1 and 1; (63) Between -1 and 0; (64) Less than +1. 10 5. Linear Regression & Some Multiple Choice Questions Continue with using the model and SPSS output in Questions 1, 2, 3 and 4. a. State the Gauss-Markov Theorem. b. Is the Gauss-Markov Theorem applicable in the regression model presented in Questions 1, 2, 3, and 4? Why (not)? Consider the following models: Model A: πππ‘π‘ = πΎπΎ1 + πΎπΎ2 ππ2π‘π‘ + πΎπΎ3 ππ3π‘π‘ + πππ΄π΄π΄π΄ Model B: (πππ‘π‘ − ππ2π‘π‘ ) = πΏπΏ1 + πΏπΏ2 ππ2π‘π‘ + πΏπΏ3 ππ3π‘π‘ + πππ΅π΅π΅π΅ c. Will the OLS estimates of πΎπΎ2 and πΏπΏ2 be the same? Why? d. Will the OLS estimates of πΎπΎ3 and πΏπΏ3 be the same? Why? 11 e. Some multiple choice questions. For each question, give the subindex of the question (xvii, xvii, xix, xx) and the corresponding answer (65, 66, 67, …, 80). xvii) If we multiply the explanatory variable by 1000 and re-estimate the regression, the intercept coefficient and its standard error will: (65) increase by 1000 times; (66) decrease by 1000 times; (67) remain the same; (68) increase by (1/1000) times. xvii) If in ππππ = π½π½1 + π½π½2 ππππ + π’π’ππ both Y and X are standardized variables, the intercept term will be: (69) Positive; (70) Negative; (71) Between -1 and 1; (72) Equal to zero. xix) “The regression model does not include the lagged value(s) of the dependent variable as one of the explanatory variables.” This is an assumption underlying which of the following tests of autocorrelation? (73) Durbin-Watson d test; (74) Runs test; (75) Breusch-Godfrey test; (76) Graphical method. xx) Data on GDP, unemployment, and household expenditure are examples of: (77) Experimental data; (78) Non-experimental data; (79) Cross-section data; (80) Time series data. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24