18 November 2022
Global Economic Calendar
Economics
Global
21 – 27 November 2022
Key economic data highlights of the week
Location/Indicator
Monday, 21 November
02:30 GMT Thailand GDP (Q3, % q-o-q s.a./ y-o-y)
07:00 GMT Germany PPI (Oct, % m-o-m/y-o-y)
08:00 GMT Taiwan Export orders (Oct, % y-o-y)
08:30 GMT Hong Kong CPI (Oct, % y-o-y)
Tuesday, 22 November
07:00 GMT UK Public sector net borrowing (PSNB), ex banks (Oct, GBPbn)
13:30 GMT Canada Retail sales (Sep, % m-o-m)
15:00 GMT Eurozone Consumer confidence (Nov, flash, Index)
15:00 GMT US Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Nov, Index)
Wednesday, 23 November
08:00 GMT South Africa CPI (Oct, % m-o-m/y-o-y)
08:15 GMT France S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
08:15 GMT France S&P Global services PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
08:30 GMT Germany S&P Global/BME manufacturing PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
08:30 GMT Germany S&P Global services PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
09:00 GMT Eurozone Global manufacturing PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
09:00 GMT Eurozone S&P Global services PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
09:30 GMT UK S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
09:30 GMT UK S&P Global/CIPS services PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
13:30 GMT US Initial jobless claims (Week 19 Nov, 000s)
14:45 GMT US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
14:45 GMT US S&P Global services PMI (Nov, flash, Index)
15:00 GMT US University of Michigan sentiment (Nov, final, Index)
Thursday, 24 November
00:30 GMT Japan Manufacturing PMI (Nov, preliminary, Index)
00:30 GMT Japan Services PMI (Nov, preliminary, Index)
05:00 GMT Singapore CPI (Oct, % y-o-y)
07:45 GMT France Business confidence (Nov, Index)
07:45 GMT France Manufacturing confidence (Nov, Index)
09:00 GMT Germany IFO business climate (Nov, Index)
Friday, 25 November
04:00 GMT Malaysia CPI (Oct, % y-o-y)
07:00 GMT Germany GfK consumer confidence (Dec, Index)
07:00 GMT Germany GDP (Q3, final, % q-o-q s.a./y-o-y s.a.)
07:00 GMT Germany Private consumption (Q3, % q-o-q)
07:45 GMT France Consumer confidence (Nov, Index)
CENTRAL BANKS / KEY EVENTS
Prior
HSBC Consensus
Prior Consensus
0.7/2.5
0.5/4.2
2.3/45.8 -2.0/37.7
-3.1
4.7
4.4
1.7
0.6/4.4
-0.2/40.3
-2.0
1.9
20.0
0.7
-27.6
-10.0
21.0
-0.5
-
1.1
-25.4
-6
0.1/7.5
47.2
51.7
45.1
46.5
46.4
48.6
46.2
48.8
222
50.4
47.8
54.7
0.4/7.6
47.2
51.2
46.0
47.0
47.0
48.4
47.5
49.1
54.5
0.2/7.4
45.3
46.5
46.0
48.0
45.8
48.0
50.0
48.0
55.5
50.7
53.2
7.5
102
103
84.3
7.0
101
85.5
7.1
102
85.0
4.5
-41.9
0.3/1.1
0.8
82
4.0
-38.0
0.3/1.1
82
3.9
-39.8
0.3/1.1
0.3
83
Source: All forecasts are HSBC; all historical data are from Bloomberg. Note:  shows key indicators.
Monday, 21 November
Mainland China
Policy rate (%)
01:15 GMT
Israel
Base rate decision (%)
14:00 GMT
Tuesday, 22 November
Hungary
Interest rate decision (%)
13:00 GMT
Nigeria
Interest rate decision (%)
HSBC
3.65
3.65 ► 3.65
2.75
3.25 ▲ 3.50
13.00
13.00 ► 13.00
15.50
16.00 ▲ 16.50
Wednesday, 23 November
New Zealand
3.50
RBNZ Official cash rate (%)
01:00 GMT
US
FOMC meeting minutes
19:00 GMT
Kenya
Interest rate decision (%)
8.25
Thursday, 24 November
Sri Lanka
CBSL Standing deposit rate (%) 14.50
CBSL Standing lending rate (%) 15.50
02:00 GMT
Sweden
1.75
Riksbank policy rate (%)
08:30 GMT
Turkey
One-week repo rate decision (%)
11:00 GMT
10.50
Eurozone
ECB monetary policy account
12:30 GMT
Korea
7-Day repo rate (%)
3.00
South Africa
Interest rate decision (%)
6.25
4.25 ▲ 4.25
-
-
8.25 ▲ 9.00
- ► 14.50
- ► 15.50
2.50 ▲ 2.25
9.00 ▼ 9.00
-
3.25 ▲ 3.25
7.00 ▲ 7.00
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates
HSBC Global Economics Team
Edited by Harriet Smith
Economist
HSBC Bank plc
harriet.smith@hsbc.com
+44 20 7992 0164
Seeking acatalyst – 9th edition of the EMSentiment Survey Click to view
Disclosures & Disclaimer
This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc
View HSBC Global Research at:
https://www.research.hsbc.com
-
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
What to watch out for
Next week, we will get the November flash PMI releases across Europe, Japan and in the US.
The October data suggested global economic activity slowed further, and markets will be eager
to assess the latest health check and will be on the lookout any continued signs of good news
with supply chains and prices. Additionally, as regional divergences remained in October with
Japan among other parts of Asia and LatAm holding up as relative outperformers, this too will
be interesting to watch to see whether the downturn has become any broader based.
In Europe, manufacturing and service activity has been hit hard. In particular, Germany has led
the downturn. However, it is likely PMI data for November will signal a slight improvement in
sentiment as gas storage stands full. But, nevertheless, we forecast the manufacturing and
services PMIs to remain in contraction territory at 46.0 and 47.0, respectively. In France, we
expect the manufacturing PMI to remain steady at 47.2 while we suspect the services PMI
dropped (from 51.7 to 51.2) as post-pandemic reopening effects start to fade. Overall, in the
Eurozone, we see the manufacturing PMI ticking up to 47.0 whereas a small fall in the services
PMI to 48.4 is likely. In the UK, following a grim set of October data given the political and
financial market turbulence in that month, we anticipate a small lift in manufacturing and
services PMIs (to 47.5 and 49.1) in November although we forecast both to remain below 50.
Across the Atlantic, in the US, after a slower rate of expansion was reported in October, it will be
interesting to see whether manufacturing activity holds up in November. Conversely, on the
services side, October data marked the fourth consecutive monthly contraction so the
November data will shed further light on the extent of the slowdown.
It is an otherwise quiet week for US data, but the FOMC meeting minutes out on Wednesday
are worth noting. It is likely that these will be closely evaluated to consolidate communications
from the November meeting concerning the basis for future rate rises, including hints for the
likely next move in December. With the October CPI print surprising to the downside, any clues
for how this ‘dovish’ data may be factored into future rate decisions will be of particular interest.
In Canada, details on retail sales for September are due to be released. We look for a 0.5%
m-o-m decline, largely due to a drop in prices linked to the fall in gasoline prices in the month.
Other key releases from Europe include confidence data from France and Germany as well as
the final German Q3 GDP print, which we expect to be in line with the preliminary estimate
pointing to a 0.3% q-o-q increase. We suspect business confidence in France to have edged
down a touch in November to 101 whereas the November German IFO release is likely to post
an improvement since the risk of government-forced gas rationing this winter has reduced,
wholesale energy prices have fallen, and the government has provided more clarity about the
announced gas price cap. As a result, we forecast the business climate index to have ticked up
to 85.5. Similarly, German consumer sentiment has likely also picked up, and we expect the
GfK consumer confidence print for December to rise to -38.0 from -41.9 in November. But, we
forecast French consumer confidence to remain unchanged at 82 in November. From the UK,
we will see details on October’s public finances. It is likely that public sector net borrowing
excluding banks will come in at GBP21.0bn, up from GBP20.0bn in September.
Turning to Asia, beyond flash PMI data from Japan, we will get October inflation releases from
Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. It is likely that all will show the annual rate of CPI to have
softened to 1.7%, 7.0% and 4.0%, respectively. Elsewhere, we will see Q3 GDP data from
Thailand for which we forecast growth to have ticked up to 4.2% y-o-y from 2.5% y-o-y.
It is a busy week in the diary for central bank meetings. To highlight a few, we will see rate
decisions in mainland China, New Zealand, Korea, Sweden and Turkey. We look for hikes in
New Zealand (4.25%), Korea (3.25%) and Sweden (2.25%) while a 150bp rate cut to 9.00% is
likely in Turkey, and we expect the PBOC to remain on hold at 3.65%.
2
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Main North American economic indicators calendar
Date
22-Nov
23-Nov
Location Time (GMT)
Canada 13:30
Canada 13:30
US
15:00
US
13:30
US
13:30
US
13:30
US
13:30
US
14:45
US
14:45
US
15:00
US
15:00
US
15:00
US
15:00
US
19:00
Subject
Retail sales
Ex auto
Richmond Fed manufacturing index
Durable goods orders
Ex transportation
Initial jobless claims
Continuing claims
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
S&P Global services PMI
University of Michigan sentiment
1-year inflation expectations
5 to 10-year inflation expectations
New home sales
FOMC meeting minutes
Unit
% m-o-m
% m-o-m
Index
% m-o-m
% m-o-m
000s
000s
Index
Index
Index
%
%
000s, annual rate
-
Period of data
Sep
Sep
Nov
Oct, flash
Oct, flash
Week 19 Nov
Week 12 Nov
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, final
Nov, final
Nov, final
Oct
-
Previous HSBC forecast
0.7
-0.5
0.7
-0.6
-10.0
0.4
0.4
-0.5
222
1507
50.4
47.8
54.7
54.5
5.1
3.0
603
560
-
Consensus
1.1
1.0
-6
0.4
0.1
50.0
48.0
55.5
576
-
Previous HSBC forecast
0.4
7.4
7.0
80.6
3.3
0.6
0.4/6.4
-/0.2/6.9
-/0.2/8.3
0.7/8.3
0.3/8.5
0.3/8.6
1.0/4.2
1.0/4.2
11.3
1.0/5.7
-/-5.7
8.9
-0.7
5752.0
166.3
278.1
-
Consensus
1.7
-/0.6/6.2
-/8.3
-/-/-/203.8
-
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates. Note: For final and second releases, the prior equals the flash release for the same period.
Main LatAm economic indicators calendar
Date
22-Nov
23-Nov
24-Nov
25-Nov
22-26 Nov
23-30 Nov
Location
Argentina
Argentina
Argentina
Argentina
Peru
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Brazil
Brazil
Mexico
Brazil
Brazil
Brazil
Time (GMT)
19:00
19:00
19:00
19:00
12:00
12:00
12:00
15:00
12:00
12:00
12:00
12:30
12:30
15:00
17:30
-
Subject
Trade balance
Exports
Imports
Primary balance
GDP
Economic activity index
IBGE inflation IPCA-15
Bi-weekly CPI
Bi-weekly core CPI
Central bank monetary policy minutes
GDP
GDP nominal
Economic activity IGAE
Current account balance
Foreign direct investment
Current account balance
Federal debt
Tax collections
Formal job creation
Unit
USDbn
USDbn
USDbn
ARSbn
% y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% bi-weekly/y-o-y
% bi-weekly/y-o-y
% q-o-q s.a./y-o-y
% y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
USDbn
USDbn
USDbn
BRLbn
BRLbn
000s
Period of data
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Q3
Sep
Nov
15-Nov
15-Nov
Q3, final
Q3
Sep
Oct
Oct
Q3
Oct
Oct
Oct
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates. Note: Bold indicates key indicators
3
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Main European economic indicators calendar
Date
Location
21-Nov Germany
22-Nov UK
UK
UK
Eurozone
Eurozone
23-Nov France
France
France
Germany
Germany
Germany
Eurozone
Eurozone
Eurozone
UK
UK
UK
24-Nov Norway
France
France
Sweden
Germany
Germany
Germany
Eurozone
25-Nov Germany
Germany
Germany
Germany
Germany
France
Time (GMT)
07:00
07:00
07:00
07:00
09:00
15:00
08:15
08:15
08:15
08:30
08:30
08:30
09:00
09:00
09:00
09:30
09:30
09:30
07:00
07:45
07:45
08:30
09:00
09:00
09:00
12:30
07:00
07:00
07:00
07:00
07:00
07:45
Subject
PPI
Public finances (PSNCR)
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB)
Ex banks
ECB current account s.a.
Consumer confidence
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
S&P Global services PMI
S&P Global composite PMI
S&P Global/BME manufacturing PMI
S&P Global services PMI
S&P Global composite PMI
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
S&P Global services PMI
S&P Global composite PMI
S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI
S&P Global/CIPS services PMI
S&P Global/CIPS composite PMI
Unemployment rate AKU
Business confidence
Manufacturing confidence
Riksbank policy rate
IFO business climate
IFO current conditions
IFO expectations
ECB monetary policy account
GfK consumer confidence
GDP
Private consumption
Government spending
Capital investment
Consumer confidence
Unit
% m-o-m/y-o-y
GBPbn
GBPbn
GBPbn
EURbn
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
%
Index
Index
%
Index
Index
Index
Index
% q-o-q s.a./y-o-y s.a.
% q-o-q
% q-o-q
% q-o-q
Index
Period of data
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Sep
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Sep
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Dec
Q3, final
Q3
Q3
Q3
Nov
Previous HSBC forecast
2.3/45.8
-2.0/37.7
10.1
19.2
20.0
21.0
-26.3
-27.6
47.2
47.2
51.7
51.2
50.2
45.1
46.0
46.5
47.0
45.1
46.4
47.0
48.6
48.4
47.3
46.2
47.5
48.8
49.1
48.2
3.2
102
101
103
1.75
2.25
84.3
85.5
94.1
94.3
75.6
77.5
-41.9
-38.0
0.3/1.1
0.3/1.1
0.8
2.3
-1.3
82
82
Consensus
-0.2/40.3
-25.4
45.3
46.5
44.9
46.0
48.0
47.0
45.8
48.0
47.3
102
2.50
85.0
93.6
77.0
-39.8
0.3/1.1
0.3
-0.3
83
Prior HSBC forecast
3.65
3.65
0.7/2.5
0.5/4.2
-3.1
4.7
26546.0
29100.0
4.4
1.7
3.6
3.6
3.50
4.25
-853.0
-3348.6
7.8
2.0
15.6
16.4
7.5
7.0
5.3
5.2
-4.8
-3.3
51.8
50.7
53.2
14.50
14.50
15.50
15.50
-2.3
0.4
3.00
3.25
4.5
4.0
0.0/0.9
-0.3/-2.5
1.5/4.4
1.6/4.5
Consensus
3.65
0.6/4.4
-2.0
1.9
3.6
4.25
-1480.0
4.9
11.0
7.1
5.3
-2.5
0.5
3.25
3.9
-/-2.1
1.4/4.3
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates. Note: For final and second releases, the prior equals the flash release for the same period.
Main Asian economic indicators calendar
Date
21-Nov
Location
Mainland China
Thailand
Taiwan
Taiwan
Hong Kong
22-Nov
Taiwan
23-Nov
New Zealand
Thailand
Thailand
Thailand
Singapore
Singapore
Taiwan
24-Nov
Japan
Japan
Japan
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka
New Zealand
Korea
25-Nov
Malaysia
Singapore
21-25 Nov Singapore
Time (GMT)
01:15
02:30
08:00
08:20
08:30
08:00
01:00
03:30
03:30
03:30
05:00
05:00
08:00
00:30
00:30
00:30
02:00
02:00
21:45
04:00
05:00
-
Subject
Policy rate
GDP
Export orders
Current account balance
CPI
Unemployment rate
RBNZ official cash rate
Customs trade balance
Customs exports
Customs imports
CPI
Core CPI
Industrial production
Composite PMI
Manufacturing PMI
Services PMI
CBSL standing deposit rate
CBSL standing lending rate
Retail sales ex inflation
7-Day repo rate
CPI
Industrial production
GDP
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates. Note: Bold indicates key indicators
4
Unit
%
% q-o-q s.a./ y-o-y
% y-o-y
USDm
% y-o-y
%
%
USDm
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
Index
Index
Index
%
%
% q-o-q
%
% y-o-y
% m-o-m s.a./ y-o-y
% q-o-q s.a./ y-o-y
Period of data
Q3
Oct
Q3
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Nov, preliminary
Nov, preliminary
Nov, preliminary
Q3
Oct
Oct
Q3, final
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Main CEEMEA economic indicators calendar
Date
21-Nov
22-Nov
23-Nov
24-Nov
25-Nov
26-Nov
Location
Israel
Israel
South Africa
Turkey
Poland
Poland
Poland
Hungary
Nigeria
South Africa
South Africa
Poland
Poland
Russia
Zambia
Kenya
Turkey
Hungary
Turkey
Zambia
Zambia
South Africa
Hungary
Poland
Poland
Angola
Israel
Time (GMT)
11:00
14:00
07:00
07:00
09:00
09:00
09:00
13:00
08:00
08:00
09:00
09:00
16:00
07:00
08:00
11:00
08:00
09:00
09:00
11:00
Subject
Unemployment rate
Base rate decision
Leading indicator
Consumer confidence
Average gross wages
Employment
Sold industrial output
Interest rate decision
Interest rate decision
CPI
Core CPI
Retail sales
Real retail sales
Industrial production
Interest rate decision
Interest rate decision
Capacity utilisation
Average gross wages
One-week repo rate decision
Trade balance
CPI
Interest rate decision
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate
Interest rate decision
Manufacturing production
Unit
%
%
Index
Index
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
%
%
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
%
%
%
% y-o-y
%
ZMWbn
% y-o-y
%
%
%
%
%
% m-o-m
Period of data
Oct
Sep
Nov
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Nov
Sep
Oct
Nov
Oct
Oct
Q3
Sep
Previous HSBC forecast
3.7
2.75
3.50
123.4
▼
76.2
14.5
15.2
2.3
2.1
9.8
3.8
13.00
13.00
15.50
16.50
0.1/7.5
0.4/7.6
0.5/4.7
0.5/5.0
21.9
21.1
4.1
3.2
-3.1
9.00
9.00
8.25
9.00
76.9
16.6
16.3
10.50
9.00
1.1
9.7
10.1
6.25
7.00
3.8
3.9
5.1
5.1
2.6
2.6
19.50
18.00
3.8
-
Consensus
3.25
14.0
2.2
7.9
13.00
16.00
0.2/7.4
0.3/4.8
21.8
2.9
8.25
9.00
7.00
5.1
2.5
19.50
-
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates
5
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
The following week
Date
28-Nov
29-Nov
30-Nov
01-Dec
02-Dec
Location
US
Japan
Japan
Sweden
Taiwan
UK
UK
Eurozone
Eurozone
Brazil
Germany
Germany
Canada
US
Japan
Mainland China
Mainland China
Thailand
France
France
France
France
Germany
Eurozone
Eurozone
India
India
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
Korea
Japan
Japan
Mainland China
India
France
Germany
Eurozone
UK
Eurozone
Brazil
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
Korea
Korea
Brazil
US
US
US
US
Canada
Canada
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream.
6
Time (GMT)
15:30
23:30
23:30
07:00
08:30
09:30
09:30
10:00
10:00
11:00
13:00
13:00
13:30
15:00
23:50
01:30
01:30
07:00
07:45
07:45
07:45
07:45
08:55
10:00
10:00
12:00
12:00
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
15:00
19:00
23:00
23:50
00:30
01:45
05:00
08:50
08:55
09:00
09:30
10:00
12:00
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
14:45
15:00
15:00
23:00
23:00
12:00
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
Subject
Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
Jobless rate
Job-to-applicant ratio
GDP
GDP
Net consumer credit
Mortgage approvals
Economic confidence
Consumer confidence
FGV inflation IGPM
HICP
CPI
Real GDP
Conference Board consumer confidence
Industrial production
Manufacturing PMI
Non-manufacturing PMI
Benchmark interest rate
HICP
CPI
GDP
Consumer spending
Unemployment claims rate
HICP
Core HICP
GDP
GVA
Real GDP
Real consumer spending
GDP price index
Core PCE price index
Advance goods trade balance
JOLTS job openings
Federal Reserve Beige Book
GDP
Capital spending
Manufacturing PMI
Caixin manufacturing PMI
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI
Unemployment rate
GDP
Personal income
Personal spending
Real personal spending
Total PCE price index
Core PCE price index
Initial jobless claims
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
ISM manufacturing
ISM prices paid
CPI
Core CPI
Industrial production
Nonfarm payrolls, monthly change
Unemployment rate
Labour force participation rate
Average hourly earnings
Unemployment rate
Net change in employment
Unit
Index
%
Ratio
% q-o-q/y-o-y
% y-o-y
GBPbn
1000s
Index
Index
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
Index
% m-o-m/y-o-y
Index
Index
%
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% q-o-q/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
%
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% y-o-y
% q-o-q, annualised
% q-o-q, annualised
% q-o-q, annualised
% q-o-q, annualised
USDbn
000s
% q-o-q s.a./y-o-y
% y-o-y
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
%
% q-o-q/y-o-y
% m-o-m
% m-o-m
% m-o-m
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
000s
Index
Index
Index
% m-o-m/y-o-y
% y-o-y
% m-o-m/y-o-y
000s
%
%
% m-o-m/y-o-y
%
000s
Period of data
Nov
Oct
Oct
Q3
Q3, preliminary
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov, final
Nov
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Sep
Nov
Oct, preliminary
Nov
Nov
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Q3, final
Oct
Nov
Nov, flash
Nov, flash
Q3
Q3
Q3, final
Q3, final
Q3, final
Q3, final
Oct
Oct
Q3, preliminary
Q3
Nov, final
Nov
Nov
Nov, final
Nov, final
Nov, final
Nov, final
Oct
Q3
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Week 26 Nov
Nov, final
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Previous
-19.4
2.6
1.34
0.9/3.8
4.1
0.7
66.8
92.5
-1.0/6.5
1.1/11.6
0.9/10.4
0.1/4.0
102.5
-1.7/9.6
49.2
48.7
1.00
1.2/7.1
1.0/6.2
0.2/1.0
1.2/-3.0
5.5
10.6
5.0
13.5
12.7
2.6
1.4
4.1
4.5
-92.2
10717
0.3/3.1
4.6
49.2
55.3
6.6
1.2/3.2
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.3/6.2
0.5/5.1
50.2
46.6
0.3/5.7
4.8
-0.7/0.4
261
3.7
62.2
0.4/4.7
5.2
108.3
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Major releases preview
Monday, 21 November
Mainland China: People’s Bank of China rate announcement 01:15 GMT
With further support needed to help stabilise the economy, we expect monetary policy to remain
accommodative. Low inflationary pressures should also allow the PBoC to maintain an easing
bias. However, we expect the PBoC to keep policy rates on hold in November (with the 1-year
loan prime rate kept at 3.65%) and prefer to use quantity-based and structural tools to support
the economy given concerns over capital outflow pressure due to a wider interest rate
differential with other economies. On 15 November, the PBoC made net withdrawals of
RMB150bn in 1-year medium-term lending facilities this month, keeping rates unchanged at
2.75%, while injecting a further RMB320bn in medium and longer-term facilities (e.g. PSL,
technology relending quota).
%
Policy rate
Prior
3.65
Consensus
3.65
HSBC
3.65
Thailand: GDP (Q3) 02:30 GMT
Thailand’s tourism engine started to really rev up in 3Q with tourism arrivals at 38% of prepandemic trends. From getting tourism receipts that were as much as 11% of GDP prepandemic to just 2% in 2021, turning a whole crucial economic sector back on, even if only
partially, will likely be a big push for growth. To a lesser but still very important degree,
consumption also likely gave a considerable upwards push to growth. Despite a high inflation
environment in the period, the Thai economy still enjoyed a good breeze of ‘re-opening’
tailwinds that boosted consumption. In fact, the shipment index, private consumption index and
even the PMI output index all pointed to strengthening consumption in 3Q. The export demand
of goods might have softened compared with 2Q, but has held up nonetheless. We expect GDP
in Thailand to grow 4.2% y-o-y in the 3rd quarter, and get closer to its pre-pandemic level.
%
q-o-q s.a.
y-o-y
Prior
0.7
2.5
Consensus
0.6
4.4
HSBC
0.5
4.2
Taiwan: Export orders (Oct) 08:00 GMT
Export orders likely rose 4.7% y-o-y in October, after declining 3.1% in September. Our
forecasts imply that export orders to have increased 2.4% m-o-m sa last month, following an
average 2.9% fall in Q3 22. There was a sizable rebound customs exports on the month in
October and the new orders PMI rose to 42.8 last month, from 37.7 in the prior month.
%
y-o-y
Prior
-3.1
Consensus
-2.0
HSBC
4.7
Hong Kong: CPI (Oct) 08:30 GMT
CPI inflation likely dipped down to 1.7% y-o-y in October, reflecting the muted domestic
situation, following on the recent bump in inflation in the prior month (4.4% y-o-y), which was
due to residual effects of public housing subsidies given the prior two years. The domestic
consumption recovery has been ongoing, but the overall pace remains more muted. While
consumption vouchers have helped, continued COVID-19 cases and an increased number of
residents travelling abroad following on the relaxation of inbound quarantine measures has
likely weighed on the pace of the consumption recovery.
%
y-o-y
Prior
4.4
Consensus
1.9
HSBC
1.7
7
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Tuesday, 22 November
Hungary: CB rate announcement 13:00 GMT
NBH will be taking its rate decision next week on the heels of yet another increase in inflation to
21.1% y-o-y in October (please see CE3 CPI : Higher peaks, uncertain disinflation pace) and an
economy reported to have contracted by 0.4% q-o-q in Q3. The slowdown supports
expectations of inflationary momentum coming from the domestic economy starting to wane.
But 20% annual inflation that is yet to peak (we see the peak at 24% in January) demands NBH
to stay the course i.e. keep the “quick deposit” rate at the current 18%. NBH’s quest to correct
inflation lower requires support from both tight fiscal policy and a stronger currency. The latter is
dependent on the ongoing EU funding negotiations with regard to the RRF and cohesion
funding, with both remaining fairly unclear and politicised. We see NBH ending its reliance on
the high “quick deposit” rate and switching back to its base rate as the key policy instrument, but
an agreement with the EU and inflation starting to fall remain key prerequisites for that.
%
Base rate
Previous
13.00
Consensus
13.00
HSBC
13.00
Canada: Retail sales (September) 13:30 GMT
We look for retail sales to decline by 0.5% m-o-m in September. The drop will largely be via a
drop in prices, linked to the decline in gasoline prices in the month. Excluding autos, retail sales
are expected to decline by 0.6%.
(% m-o-m)
Retail sales
Retail sales (excluding autos)
Prior
0.7
0.7
Consensus
1.1
1.0
HSBC
-0.5
-0.6
Nigeria: CBN rate announcement
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has hiked the policy rate by 400bp this year, and we expect
another 100bp increase at the upcoming MPC meeting as the rate-setting committee responds
to the ongoing rise in inflation, and pressure on capital flows and the currency. Inflation rose to
21.1% y-o-y in October amid broad food and non-food price pressures, well above the CBN’s
6%-9% target range, while the official naira exchange rate continues to depreciate, weakening
by about 7% against the USD.
%
Policy rate
Previous
15.50
Consensus
16.00
HSBC
16.50
Wednesday, 23 November
New Zealand: Reserve bank of New Zealand rate announcement 01:00 GMT
At its last meeting, in October, the RBNZ reported that it considered a 50bp or 75bp hike given
the inflation challenge. In the end, it chose a 50bp move. However, since then, both the market
and RBNZ have been surprised to the upside on a range of key data. Notably, both inflation and
employment were strong. Headline CPI inflation rose to 7.2% y-o-y and 5.4% y-o-y for core CPI.
Food price inflation rose to a new record high, and the key survey inflation expectations
measures rose, undoing a decline in prior quarters. Employment also grew a strong 1.3% q-o-q,
and the key wages measures rose as much as 7.4% y-o-y. As such, despite slowing domestic
activity and global growth slowing, we expect the RBNZ will hike its cash rate by 75bp in
November, to 4.25%. At its November meeting, the RBNZ is also set to publish updated
forecast and is likely to raise its projection for the peak cash rate from its previous forecast of
4.1% in mid-2023.
%
RBNZ official cash rate
8
Prior
3.50
Consensus
4.25
HSBC
4.25
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
France: PMI surveys (Nov, flash) 08:15 GMT
The French composite PMI fell from 51.2 in September to 50.2 in October, a decline caused by
both manufacturing and services. In November, we expect manufacturing PMI to remain steady
at a weak level of 47.2, given the lack of significant deterioration on the energy front.
Conversely, we expect services PMI to continue to drop (from 51.7 to 51.2), as the boost to
activity from post-pandemic reopening and the return of foreign tourists is now clearly fading.
Index
Manufacturing
Services
Prior
47.2
51.7
Consensus
-
HSBC
47.2
51.2
Germany: PMI surveys (Nov, flash) 08:30 GMT
Given that the risk of a government-forced gas rationing this winter has been greatly reduced
due to full German gas storages, business sentiment could improve slightly over the month. The
headline manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 45.1pts to 46.0pts, also helped by further
easing of supply constraints, which could support production activity. While we also expect the
service PMI to post a small monthly gain by 0.5pts to 47.0pts as well, both indices would still
remain deeply in contractionary territory in November.
Index
Manufacturing
Services
Prior
45.1
46.5
Consensus
45.3
46.5
HSBC
46.0
47.0
Eurozone: PMI surveys (Nov, flash) 09:00 GMT
In October, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell deeper into contractionary territory (from 48.4
to 46.4) with purchasing managers reporting notable contractions in the sub-indices for output
(-2.5pts), new orders (-3.4pts), and new export orders (-2.9pts). Supply-side constraints
appeared to continue easing, while cost pressures remained at elevated levels but did soften
slightly – the sub-index for output prices was down 1.3pts, while input prices fell by a more
notable 4.5pts. The services activity PMI remained more stable, seeing a slight downtick from
48.8 to 48.6, although business expectations expanded by 0.5pts. We expect both indices to
remain in contractionary territory in November, with a slight dip in the services index to 48.4
alongside an uptick in manufacturing to 47.0 due to improvements in gas storage and further
easing of supply constraints.
Index
Manufacturing
Services
Prior
46.4
48.6
Consensus
46.0
48.0
HSBC
47.0
48.4
UK: PMI surveys (Nov, flash) 09:30 GMT
The UK PMIs looked grim in October, with both the services and manufacturing sectors
registering prints below 50, indicating contraction, and the latter also pointing to job cuts. The
PMIs can sometimes appear more like a sentiment survey than an activity survey, and on that
basis, it is hardly surprising that the October numbers were weak, given the political and
financial market turbulence in that month. So we expect a small tick higher in November, but to
still low, below 50 readings. As ever, we will pay close attention to the price indices, which will
hopefully continue to point to diminishing inflation pressures for companies, and the
employment sub-indices, particularly given the surprise rise in unemployment in September.
Manufacturing
Services
Prior
46.2
48.8
Consensus
45.8
48.0
HSBC
47.5
49.1
9
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
US: FOMC minutes (1-2 Nov meeting) 19:00 GMT
At the November FOMC meeting, the Committee voted for a 75bp rate hike for the fourth
meeting in a row, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00%. In his press conference,
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a decision to slow the pace of rate hikes could come as soon as
December, but that the questions of how high to raise policy rates and how long to keep policy
restrictive were becoming more important. This message has been subsequently echoed by
other policymakers, such as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor
Christopher Waller. In a 16 November interview, President Daly commented that "somewhere
between 4.75% and 5.25%" might be a "reasonable" destination for the federal funds rate, but
that this would depend on incoming economic data. In a speech, also on 16 November,
Governor Waller said that the case for slowing to 50bp hikes was getting stronger but that future
incoming data could justify different policy paths, such as stepping down further to 25bp hikes or
continuing on with a "sequence" of 50bp hikes. Our forecast is that the FOMC will raise the
federal funds rate by 50bp in December and 50bp in February 2023, taking the federal funds
target range to 4.75-5.00%. In November, the FOMC included a new sentence in its policy
statement that said: "In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the
Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with
which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial
developments." It will be interesting to see how the discussion about this sentence is framed in
the November FOMC minutes. In a 15 November speech, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
discussed the "long and variable lags" in monetary policy and commented that the FOMC would
need to "calibrate policy today knowing we won't see its full impact on inflation for months."
Kenya: CBK rate announcement
We expect a 75bp rate hike from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) at its November MPC
meeting. Inflation has started to accelerate more meaningfully in recent months, primarily in
response to food price pressures, a weaker shilling exchange rate and imported inflation, and
the government’s recent decisions to scale-back price support measures, including the fuel
subsidy. Inflation accelerated to 9.6% y-o-y in October, some way above CBK’s effective target
range of 2.5% to 7.5%.
%
Policy rate
Previous
8.25
Consensus
8.25
HSBC
9.00
Zambia: BoZ rate announcement
CPI inflation had receded from a high of 25% in mid-2021 to 9.7% y-o-y in October, reflecting
easing food and non-food price pressures, even after the removal of the country’s costly fuel
subsidy at the beginning of the year. With inflation moderating, the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) has
kept its policy rate unchanged at 9.0% since Q4 of last year, and we see little pressure for
tightening at the upcoming November meeting.
%
Policy rate
10
Previous
9.00
Consensus
-
HSBC
9.00
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Thursday, 24 November
Sri Lanka: Central bank of Sri Lanka rate announcement 02:00 GMT
Inflation appears to have peaked and we expect policy rates to remain unchanged through our
forecast horizon. Having hiked aggressively, by 950bp since the start of 2022, at some stage,
once reforms gain traction, the CBSL should be in a position to cut policy rates. However, the
timing for such a move remains uncertain given the challenging outlook for Sri Lanka.
%
CBSL standing deposit rate
CBSL standing lending rate
Prior
14.50
15.50
Consensus
-
HSBC
14.50
15.50
France: Business confidence (Nov) 07:45 GMT
French INSEE business confidence was steady at 102 in October, remaining 2pts above its
long-term average of 100. We expect this index to ease by 1pt in November. This would be led
by services, as the boost to activity from post-pandemic reopening and the return of foreign
tourists is now clearly fading. In addition, confidence in the building sector should start to be
negatively impacted by the recent rise in interest rates for housing loans.
Index
Business confidence indicator
Prior
102
Consensus
-
HSBC
101
Sweden: Riksbank policy rate 08:30 GMT
50 or 75bps is the big question at this meeting. With the ECB, Bank of England and Federal
Reserve all delivering 75bp increases, the central bank watching over one of the highest core
inflation prints in the developed world may want to deliver the same degree of tightening. But at
the same time, Sweden’s economy appears to be facing many headwinds – most notably from the
housing market. House prices are falling fast and the Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report
highlighted the growing risks that higher interest rates could have on the economy. As a result, we
think a 50bp increase at this meeting is likely – but whatever is delivered, markets will be looking
to what the Riksbank thinks about future tightening or the possibility of rate cuts in 2023.
%
Policy rate
Previous
1.75
Consensus
2.50
HSBC
2.25
Germany: ifo business climate (Nov) 09:00 GMT
Similar to the PMI survey, the ifo business climate should show signs of an improvement as
fears of a gas rationing over the winter have eased, wholesale energy prices have dropped and
the government provided more details about the announced gas price cap to support
households, small businesses and the industry. This should have a sizeable supporting impact
on economic expectations (+1.9pts to 77.5pts) whereas we expect current conditions to only
post a small gain (+0.2pts to 94.3pts). The headline ifo business climate hence would improve
from 84.3pts to 85.5pts, still the third-lowest print in more than two years.
Index
ifo business climate
ifo current conditions
ifo expectations
Prior
84.3
94.1
75.6
Consensus
85.0
93.6
77.0
HSBC
85.5
94.3
77.5
Eurozone: Monetary policy account (October meeting) 12:30 GMT
In October, the ECB raised all key policy rates by 75bps, taking the deposit rate to 1.50%. However,
the policy statement saw a potentially dovish tweak, dropping “over the next several meetings,”
from the GC “expects to raise interest rates further […] over the next several meetings.” In another
dovish shift, President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB will take into consideration the
disinflationary impact of any recessions and transmission lags in monetary policy. Nonetheless, the
11
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
ECB did reiterate its unchanged goal of bringing inflation back to its medium-term 2% target. The
ECB also announced some changes to the terms of the TLTRO-III, with banks meeting the lending
benchmark now having to pay the average depo rate prevailing from November 2022 (instead of
since banks took the loans) until maturity or early repayment. Reserves remuneration was tweaked
slightly as well – minimum reserves will now be remunerated at the depo rate, like all other
reserves, rather than the main refinancing rates. The minutes should shed additional light on the
dovish elements of the new rates guidance (and to what extent they were actually intended or not),
the size and timing of future rate rises, as well as possible timing of quantitative tightening.
Korea: Bank of Korea rate announcement
The Bank of Korea (BoK) is likely to raise its base rate by one last 25bp to 3.25% at the upcoming
policy meeting on 24 November, after delivering total 250bp hikes in the current tightening cycle
since August last year. KRW has reversed some of its sharp depreciation recently. This likely
reduces pressures from a higher exchange rate and widening policy rate differential from the US,
which was an important consideration in raising the policy rate by a larger 50bp in October. As
such, the policy focus is likely to shift to domestic factors, especially as real GDP growth is likely to
be well below the potential rate in 2023 and inflation has already peaked. Moreover, there are early
signs of a sharp property price correction, which is a downside risk to the economy, given the high
leverage and price levels. As such, we expect the BoK to stay on hold throughout next year.
Meanwhile, the Korean central bank will also release its new set of economic forecasts. The BoK is
likely to lower its growth forecast from the current 2.1% (HSBC: 1.5%) in 2023, while next year’s
inflation projections are likely to remain unchanged at 3.7% (HSBC: 2.7%). Indeed, the policy
statement in October stated that growth next year is likely to be lower than what the central bank
forecasted in August, while inflation is largely tracking the existing projection.
%
7-Day repo rate
Prior
3.00
Consensus
3.25
HSBC
3.25
South Africa: SARB rate announcement
We continue to expect the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to raise the policy rate by 75bp
to 7.00%, repeating the moves taken in July and September. We think that the SARB will
remain cautious and vigilant about inflation risks, with headline inflation still significantly above
the midpoint of the 3-6% target band and near-term CPI likely to surprise to the upside relative
to the central bank’s current estimates. The prospect of further Fed tightening will also weigh on
the policy choice as the SARB seeks to anchor inflation expectations more firmly around the
4.5% midpoint. There could be a more dovish split among the committee this time with some
support for a smaller move in the policy rate.
%
Policy rate
Previous
6.25
Consensus
7.00
HSBC
7.00
Friday, 25 November
Malaysia: CPI (Oct) 04:00 GMT
We expect the headline inflation to rise by 4.0% y-o-y in October, down from 4.5% y-o-y in the
previous month. The sharp decline in year-on-year number is primarily due to the high base
effect from last year having waned off. Sequentially, on a seasonally adjusted basis, we expect
the growth pace to remain at par with September numbers. While food inflation may continue to
show some signs of moderation, the underlying core pressure is likely to continue rising.
Domestic demand remains robust and the labour market has recovered at an impressive pace.
As a result, we think price pressures will remain elevated for longer, in particular core inflation,
despite some breather from favourable base effects for the headline.
%
y-o-y
12
Prior
4.5
Consensus
3.9
HSBC
4.0
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
France: Consumer confidence (Nov) 07:45 GMT
French consumer confidence surprisingly bounced back by 3pts in October, from 79 to 82.
However, it remained far below its long-term average of 100. We expect this index to remain
steady at this low level in November. Granted, sentiment could be supported by the easing in
fuel shortages at the pump due to the end of the strikes in refineries. However, the ongoing rise
in inflation and lingering worries about the cost of living should prevent consumer confidence to
improve markedly, in our view.
Index
Consumer confidence indicator
Prior
82
Consensus
83
HSBC
82
Germany: GDP (Q3, detailed) 09:00 GMT
According to the flash release, the German economy grew by 0.3% q-o-q in Q3 with private
consumption being the main driver. Most likely, household spending was supported by the
lagged effects from the abolishment of COVID-19-related restriction, hence supporting service
consumption. It will be interesting to get details about the development of the savings rate as
well as well as the complete expenditure breakdown. We expect both the quarterly and the
y-o-y growth rate to be confirmed at 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively.
%
GDP (q-o-q)
GDP (y-o-y)
Prior
0.3
1.1
Consensus
0.3
1.1
HSBC
0.3
1.1
Angola: BNA rate announcement
Inflation pressures in Angola have moderated substantially, giving the Banco Nacional de
Angola (BNA) room to start easing policy with a 50bp rate cut to 19.50% in September. With
further disinflation lowering price growth to 16.7% in October, we expect a 150bp rate cut this
month, and another 200bp of easing during 2023 to take the policy rate to 16% by the end of
next year. Recent exchange rate depreciation may be a source of concern for the BNA, but is
unlikely to prevent policy easing.
%
Policy rate
Previous
19.50
Consensus
19.50
HSBC
18.00
13
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Sovereign ratings, key events, and central bank meetings
Sovereign ratings
December
9 December
9 December
9 December
16 December
16 December
Key events
SAU
GBR
NLD
LUX
SVK
Moody’s to review sovereign debt rating
Fitch to review sovereign debt rating
Moody’s to review sovereign debt rating
Moody’s to review sovereign debt rating
Moody’s to review sovereign debt rating
November
25 November
OECD publishes economic outlook
December
5 December
13-14 December
15 December
15 December
15-16 December
19-20 December
Eurogroup meeting
FOMC meeting
ECB meeting (updated forecasts)
Bank of England MPC meeting
European Council meeting
Japan monetary policy meeting
January
13-14 January
17-18 January
31 January – 1
February
February
2 February
2 February
Early February
Czech presidential election
Japan monetary policy meeting
FOMC meeting
ECB meeting
Bank of England MPC meeting (Monetary Policy Report published)
European Commission releases Winter forecasts
Source: Central banks, rating agencies, Bloomberg
Central bank meetings
2022
November
December
2023
January
February
March
April
May
US
UK
EMU
JP
13-14
15
15
19-20
21-22
2
23
2
16
2-3
11
4
IN
MX
BR
ID
AUS
7
15
6-7
21- 22
6
8
9
24
31-1
Source: Central banks, Bloomberg
14
KR
17-18
27-28
13
23
13
25
31-1
10
NZ
CN
TK
RS
23
21
20
24
22
16
25
19
23
23
22
21-22
18
2-3
8
12
24
10
17
28
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Key market views
Policy rates
Key economic forecasts
__________GDP _________
%
2022f
2023f
2024f
2.9
1.8
2.2
World
2.4
0.3
1.0
Developed
3.6
3.7
3.9
Emerging
1.7
0.4
0.9
US
3.1
-0.2
0.9
Eurozone
4.3
-0.2
1.3
UK
1.2
0.9
0.5
Japan
3.5
5.2
4.8
Mainland China
6.7
5.3
6.0
India
2.9
0.7
1.9
Brazil
-5.3
-3.4
1.3
Russia
Global policy rates
________ Inflation ________
2022f
2023f
2024f
8.5
6.7
4.5
7.5
5.2
2.8
9.1
7.7
5.7
8.1
4.7
3.5
8.6
6.9
2.6
9.1
8.0
3.6
2.2
1.0
0.3
2.2
2.6
2.4
6.9
5.5
5.0
9.4
4.5
4.2
13.7
5.4
4.4
Source: HSBC. Note: India inflation forecasts are fiscal year.
US
Eurozone*
UK
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Sweden
Mainland China
India
Korea
Mexico
Brazil
Turkey**
Current
Q4 2022f
Q4 2023f
3.75-4.00%
2.00/1.50%
3.00%
-0.10%
2.85%
3.50%
1.75%
3.65%
5.90%
3.00%
10.00%
13.75%
10.50%
4.25-4.50%
2.50/2.00%
3.50%
-0.10%
3.10%
4.25%
2.25%
3.60%
6.40%
3.25%
10.50%
13.75%
9.00%
4.75-5.00%
3.50/3.00%
3.75%
-0.10%
3.10%
4.25%
2.50%
3.60%
6.40%
3.25%
9.50%
9.75%
9.00%
Source: HSBC, Bloomberg. Note:*refi rate/deposit rate, **Turkey is one-week repo rate.
Currencies
FX forecasts: selected economies shown
Change Current Q4 22 Comments
G10
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
EURNOK
EURCHF
EURSEK
Asia
USDCNY
USDKRW
USDMYR
USDTHB
USDSGD
USDINR
LatAm
USDMXN
USDBRL
USDCLP
EMEA
EURPLN
USDZAR
7%
6%
-8%
11%
-9%
8%
-6%
1.03 1.10
1.18 1.25
141 130
0.66 0.74
10.51 9.60
0.99 1.06
11.01 10.40
The Eurozone and the EUR have endured a difficult year for most of 2022, but we believe that the currency is set to bottom out and rally in 2023.
We think GBP’s downward trend is set to run out of steam and forecast a sizeable rally in GBP-USD through 2023.
There is now more friction impeding the upward momentum in USD-JPY after the Japan's Minister of Finance (MoF) started intervening in September, in our view.
We see a bumpy recovery in AUD-USD as a peak in the US core inflation narrows the distribution of peak rates for the Fed and reduces market volatility.
We expect the NOK to be driven by risk-on/risk-off (RORO) dynamics in 2023; a jump in equities and risk sentiment should outweigh a challenging domestic backdrop.
The CHF may face a challenging year in 2023 assuming a reversion to a more positive backdrop for risk appetite and signs of a bottoming out in global growth.
If global risk appetite recovers as we broadly expect further into 2023 and global growth starts to bottom out, the SEK could be in line to benefit from both sides of this equation.
-4%
-7%
-1%
-5%
-4%
-3%
7.16
1339
4.55
35.9
1.38
81.6
Assuming China will see a moderate growth rebound off the low base, we forecast the RMB to appreciate modestly against the USD in 2023.
We expect the KRW to recover and outperform other Asian currencies in 2023 – benefiting from its high correlation to the DXY index and to risk sentiment.
We expect the MYR to lag alongside the RMB in a broad USD correction, due to weak confidence among locals and a negative yiel d differential.
A tourism recovery should restore a current account surplus and lead the THB to outperform. There is a risk of outflows by residents due to a negative yield differential, however.
The chance of one more policy tightening move by the MAS in early 2023, and its high correlation with the DXY index, should help the SGD strengthen further.
We see USD-INR falling to 79.0 by Q4 23. Although the current account deficit will likely remain large in 2023, there is hope for a pick-up in portfolio inflows.
-1%
19.44 19.25 Remittances and tourism will likely remain resilient, supporting the MXN in the short-term; however, we expect the MXN’s outperformance to stall in H1 2023
despite a weaker USD.
5.47 4.50 We retain a positive outlook on the BRL in 2023 as the USD's rally will come to an end, real yield will keep rising and export volumes will support Brazil external balances.
923 850 The improvement in the political outlook combined with a broad softening of the USD should allow the CLP to recover some of its recent lost ground.
-18%
-8%
4%
-8%
6.90
1250
4.50
34.0
1.32
79.0
4.71 4.90 We believe that the PLN’s deteriorating macro fundamentals justify underperformance in 2023, particularly in a challenging election year.
17.43 16.00 We think the ZAR's depreciation has been mostly driven by external forces in 2022; with a less dominant USD, the currency is likely to recoup some of its losses in 2023.
Source: Bloomberg, HSBC. Note: Current is as of 17 November 2022.

See ‘Currency Outlook’ for our monthly views.
15
Economics ● Global
18 November 2022
Disclosure appendix
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Melis Metiner, David Faulkner, Matlhodi Matsei and Paul Mackel
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16
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18
Global Economics Research Team
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