lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis CHAPTER1 9:FI NANCI ALSTATEMENTANALYSI S PROBLEM SETS 1. Th ema j ordi ffe r e nc ei na ppr o a c hofi nt e r na t i ona lfina nc i a lr e por t i n gs t a nda r dsa ndU. S. GAAPa c c ount i n gs t e msf r om t hedi ffe r e nc ebe t we e n‘ pr i nc i pl e s ’a nd‘ r ul e s . ’U. S. GAAPa c c ount i n gi sr ul e s b a s e d,wi t he xt e n s i v ede t a i l e dr ul e st obef ol l o we di nt he pr e pa r a t i onoffina nc i a ls t a t e me nt s ;ma n yi nt e r na t i ona ls t a nda r ds ,i nc l udi n gt ho s e f ol l o we di nEur ope a nUni onc ount r i e s ,a l l o wmuc hgr e a t e rfle xi bi l i t y ,a sl on ga s c onf or mi t ywi t hg e ne r a lpr i nc i pl e si sde mons t r a t e d.Ev e nt ho u ghU. S.GAAPi s g e ne r a l l ymor ede t a i l e da nds pe c i fic ,i s s ue sofc o mp a r a bi l i t ys t i l la r i s ea mon gU. S. c ompa ni e s .Compa r a bi l i t yp r obl e msa r es t i l lgr e a t e ra mon gc ompa ni e si nf or e i gn c ount r i e s . 2. Ea r ni n g sma na g e me nts h oul dnotma t t e ri nat r ul ye ffic i e ntma r k e t ,whe r ea l lpubl i c l y a v a i l a bl ei nf or ma t i oni sr e fle c t e di nt hepr i c eofas h a r eofs t oc k.I n v e s t or sc a ns e e t h r ou gha t t e mp t st oma na g ee a r ni n g ss ot ha tt he yc a nde t e r mi neac o mpa n y ’ st r ue pr ofit a bi l i t ya nd,he nc e ,t hei nt r i ns i cv a l ueofas h a r eofs t oc k.Ho we v e r ,i ffir msdo e n g a g ei ne a r ni n g sma na g e me nt ,t he nt hec l e a ri mpl i c a t i oni st ha tma na g e r sdono tvi e w fina nc i a lma r k e t sa se ffic i e nt . 3. Bo t hc r e di tr a t i n ga g e nc i e sa nds t oc kma r k e ta na l y s t sa r el i k e l yt obemor eorl e s s i nt e r e s t e di na l loft her a t i osdi s c us s e di nt hi sc ha p t e r( a swe l la sma n yo t he rr a t i osa nd f or msofa n a l y s i s ) .Si nc et h eMoo d y ’ sa ndSt a nda r da ndPoor ’ sr a t i n g sa s s e s sbond de f a ul tr i s k,t he s ea g e nc i e sa r emos ti nt e r e s t e di nl e v e r a g er a t i os .As t oc kma r k e ta na l y s t woul db emos ti nt e r e s t e di np r ofit a bi l i t ya ndma r k e tpr i c er a t i os . 4. ROA=ROS ATO Th eonl ywa yt ha tCr us t yPi ec a nha v ea nROSh i gh e rt ha nt h ei ndus t r ya v e r a g ea nda n ROAe q ua lt ot hei ndus t r ya v e r a g ei sf ori t sATOt obel o we rt ha nt h ei ndus t r ya v e r a g e . 5. ABC’ sAs s e tt ur no v e rmus tbea bo v et hei ndus t r ya v e r a g e . 19-1 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis 6. ROE=( 1–Ta xr a t e ) [ ROA+( ROA–I nt e r e s tr a t e ) De bt / Eq ui t y] ROEA >ROEB Fi r msAa ndBh a v et h es a meROA.As s umi n gt hes a met a xr a t ea nda s s umi n gt ha t ROA>i nt e r e s tr a t e ,t he nFi r m Amus tha v ee i t h e ral o we ri nt e r e s tr a t eorahi ghe rde bt r a t i o . CFAPROBLEMS 1. ROE=Ne tp r ofit s / Eq ui t y=Ne tpr ofit s / Sa l e s Sa l e s / As s e t s As s e t s / Eq ui t y =Ne tp r ofitma r gi n As s e tt ur no v e r Le v e r a g er a t i o =5. 5% 2. 0 2. 2=24. 2% 2. Smi l e Whi t eha shi ghe rq ua l i t yofe a r ni n g sf ort hef ol l o wi n gr e a s ons : Smi l e Whi t ea mor t i z e si t sg oo d wi l lo v e ras h or t e rpe r i odt h a ndoe sQui c k Br us h. Smi l e Whi t et he r e f o r epr e s e n t smor ec on s e r v a t i v ee a r ni n g sbe c a us ei tha sgr e a t e r g o od wi l la mor t i z a t i one xpe ns e . Smi l e Whi t ede pr e c i a t e si t sp r ope r t y ,pl a nta nde q ui pme ntus i n ga na c c e l e r a t e d de pr e c i a t i onme t hod.Thi sr e s ul t si nr e c o gni t i onofde pr e c i a t i one xpe ns es oo ne r a nda l s oi mpl i e st ha ti t si nc omei smor ec ons e r v a t i v e l ys t a t e d. Smi l e Whi t e ’ sba dde bta l l o wa nc ei sgr e a t e ra sape r c e ntofr e c e i v a bl e s . Smi l e Whi t ei sr e c o gni z i n ggr e a t e rba dde bte xpe ns et h a nQui c kBr us h.I fa c t ua l c ol l e c t i one xpe r i e nc ewi l lbec ompa r a bl e ,t he nSmi l e Whi t eha st hemor e c ons e r v a t i v er e c o gni t i onpol i c y . 3. a . ROE Net profits Net profits Sales Assets Equity Sales Assets Equity =Ne tpr ofitma r gi n To t a la s s e tt ur no v e r As s e t s / e q ui t y Net profits 510 0.0992 9.92% Sales 5,140 Sales 5,140 1.66 Assets 3,100 Assets 3,100 1.41 Equity 2,200 19-2 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis b . ROE 510 5,140 3,100 9.92% 1.66 1.41 23.2% 5,140 3,100 2,200 c . g=ROE pl o wb a c k23.2% 1.96 0.60 16.1% 1.96 4. a . Pa l ombaPi z z aSt or e s St a t e me ntofCa s hFl o ws Fort hey e a re nde dDe c e mbe r31 Ca s hFl o wsf r om Op e r a t i n gAc t i vi t i e s Ca s hCol l e c t i onsf r om Cus t ome r s $250, 000 Ca s hPa yme nt st oSuppl i e r s ( 85, 000) Ca s hPa yme nt sf orSa l a r i e s ( 45, 000) Ca s hPa yme nt sf orI nt e r e s t ( 10, 000) Ne tCa s hPr o vi de db yOpe r a t i n gAc t i vi t i e s $110, 000 Ca s hFl o wsf r om I n v e s t i n gAc t i vi t i e s Sa l eofEq ui pme nt 38, 000 Pur c ha s eofEq ui pme nt ( 30, 000) Pur c ha s eofLa nd ( 14, 000) Ne tCa s hUs e di nI n v e s t i n gAc t i vi t i e s ( 6, 000) Ca s hFl o wsf r om Fi na nc i n gAc t i vi t i e s Re t i r e me ntofCommonSt oc k ( 25, 000) Pa yme ntofDi vi de nd s ( 35, 000) Ne tCa s hUs e di nFi na nc i n gAc t i vi t i e s ( 60, 000) Ne tI nc r e a s ei nCa s h 44, 000 Ca s ha tBe gi nni n gofYe a r 50, 000 Ca s ha tEndofYe a r $94, 000 b . Ca s hflo wf r om ope r a t i ons( CFO)f o c us e sonme a s ur i n gt hec a s hflo wg e ne r a t e db y ope r a t i onsa ndno tonme a s ur i n gpr ofit a bi l i t y .I fus e da same a s ur eofpe r f or ma nc e , CFOi sl e s ss u b j e c tt odi s t or t i ont ha nt h ene ti nc omefigur e .An a l y s t su s eCFOa sa c h e c kont heq ua l i t yofe a r ni n g s .CFOt he nbe c ome sac he c kont her e por t e dne t e a r ni n g sfigu r e ,buti sno tas ub s t i t ut ef orne te a r ni n g s .Co mpa ni e swi t hh i ghne t i nc omebutl o wCFOma ybeu s i n gi nc omer e c o gni t i ont e c hni q ue st ha ta r es us p e c t . Th ea bi l i t yofafir mt og e ne r a t ec a s hf r om ope r a t i o nsonac ons i s t e ntba s i si sone i ndi c a t i onoft hefina nc i a lhe a l t hoft h efir m.Formos tfir ms ,CFOi st he“ l i f e bl ood”oft hefir m.Ana l y s t ss e a r c hf ort r e nd si nCFOt oi ndi c a t ef ut ur ec a s h c ondi t i onsa ndt hepo t e nt i a lf orc a s hflo wp r obl e ms . 19-3 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis Ca s hflo wf r om i n v e s t i n ga c t i vi t i e s( CFI )i sa ni ndi c a t i onofho wt hefir mi s i n v e s t i n gi t se x c e s sc a s h.Thea na l y s tmus tc ons i d e rt hea bi l i t yoft hefir mt o c ont i nuet ogr o wa ndt oe xpa nda c t i vi t i e s ,a ndCFIi sag o odi ndi c a t i onoft he a t t i t udeofma na g e me nti nt hi sa r e a .Ana l y s i soft hi sc ompone ntoft o t a lc a s hflo w i ndi c a t e st het yp eofc a pi t a le xpe ndi t ur e sb e i n gma deb yma na g e me ntt oe i t he r e xpa ndorma i n t a i np r oduc t i v ea c t i vi t i e s .CFIi sa l s oa ni ndi c a t oroft hefir m’ s fina nc i a lfle xi bi l i t ya ndi t sa bi l i t yt og e ne r a t es uffic i e ntc a s ht or e s pondt o una nt i c i pa t e dne e d sa ndoppor t uni t i e s .Ade c r e a s i n gCFIma yb eas i gnofa s l o wdo wni nt hefir m’ sgr o wt h. Ca s hflo wf r om fina nc i n ga c t i vi t i e s( CFF)i ndi c a t e st h ef e a s i bi l i t yoffina nc i n g ,t h e s o ur c e soffina n c i n g ,a ndt het y pe sofs o ur c e sma na g e me nts up por t s .Cont i nue d de btfina nc i n gma ys i gn a laf ut ur ec a s hflo wpr obl e m.Th ed e pe nde nc yofafir m on e xt e r na ls ou r c e soffina nc i n g( e i t he rbor r o wi n gore q ui t yfina nc i n g )ma yp r e s e nt pr obl e msi nt hef ut ur e ,s u c ha sde bts e r vi c i n ga ndma i nt a i ni n gdi vi de ndpol i c y . An a l y s t sa l s ous eCFFa sa ni ndi c a t i onoft heq ua l i t yofe a r ni n g s .I toffe r si n s i gh t s i nt ot hefina nc i a lha bi t sofma na g e me nta ndpo t e nt i a lf ut ur epol i c i e s . 5. a . CFf r om ope r a t i n ga c t i vi t i e s=$260–$85–$12–$35=$128 b . CFf r om i n v e s t i n ga c t i vi t i e s=–$8+$30–$40=–$18 c . CFf r om fina nc i n ga c t i vi t i e s=–$32–$37=–$69 6. a . Qui c k Br us hha sha dhi ghe rs a l e sa nde a r ni n g sgr o wt h( pe rs ha r e )t ha nSmi l e Whi t e . Ma r gi nsa r ea l s oh i gh e r .Butt hi sdoe sno tme a nt ha tQui c k Br us hi sne c e s s a r i l ya be t t e ri n v e s t me nt .Smi l e Whi t eh a sahi ghe rROE,whi c hha sb e e ns t a bl e ,whi l e Qui c k Br us h ’ sROEh a sbe e nde c l i ni n g .Wec a ns e et hes o ur c eoft hedi ffe r e nc ei n ROEu s i n gDuPonta na l y s i s : Compon e nt De fini t i on Qui c k Br us h Smi l e Whi t e Ta xbur de n( 1–t ) Ne tp r ofit s / pr e t a xpr ofit s 67. 4% 66. 0% I nt e r e s tbur de n Pr e t a xp r ofit s / EBI T 1. 000 0. 955 Pr ofitma r gi n EBI T/ Sa l e s 8. 5% 6. 5% As s e tt ur no v e r Sa l e s / As s e t s 1. 42 3. 55 Le v e r a g e As s e t s / Eq ui t y 1. 47 1. 48 ROE Ne tp r ofit s / Eq ui t y 12. 0% 21. 4% Whi l et a xbu r de n,i nt e r e s tbu r de n,a ndl e v e r a g ea r es i mi l a r ,pr ofitma r gi na nda s s e t t ur no v e rdi ffe r .Al t ho u ghSmi l e Whi t eh a sal o we rpr o fitma r gi n,i tha saf a rhi ghe r a s s e tt ur no v e r . 19-4 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis Sus t a i na bl egr o wt h=ROE pl o wba c kr a t i o Ludl o w’ s o wba c k Sus t a i na bl e e ROE Pl s t i m a t e o f r a t i o gr o wt hr a t e gr o wt hr a t e Qui c k Br us h 12. 0% 1. 00 12. 0% 30% Smi l e Whi t e 21. 4% 0. 34 7. 3% 10% Ludl o wh a so v e r e s t i ma t e dt hes u s t a i na bl egr o wt hr a t ef orbo t hc ompa ni e s . Qui c k Br us hha sl i t t l ea bi l i t yt oi nc r e a s ei t ss us t a i na bl egr o wt h–pl o wba c ka l r e a d y e q u a l s100%.Smi l e Whi t ec oul di nc r e a s ei t ss us t a i na bl egr o wt hb yi nc r e a s i n gi t s pl o wba c kr a t i o . b . Qui c k Br us h ’ sr e c e ntEPSgr o wt hha sb e e na c hi e v e db yi nc r e a s i n gbookv a l uepe r s h a r e ,no tb ya c hi e vi n ggr e a t e rp r ofit spe rdol l a ro fe q ui t y .Afir mc a ni nc r e a s eEPS e v e ni fROEi sde c l i ni n ga si st r ueofQui c kBr u s h.Qui c kBr us h ’ sbookv a l uepe r s h a r eha smor et ha ndoubl e di nt hel a s tt woy e a r s . Bo okv a l uepe rs h a r ec a ni nc r e a s ee i t h e rb yr e t a i ni n ge a r ni n g sorb yi s s ui n gne w s t oc ka tama r k e tpr i c egr e a t e rt h a nbookv a l ue .Qu i c kBr us hha sbe e nr e t a i ni n ga l l e a r ni n g s ,butt hei nc r e a s ei nt h enumbe rofout s t a n di n gs h a r e si ndi c a t e st ha ti tha s a l s oi s s ue das ub s t a n t i a la mountofs t oc k. 7. a . ROE=ope r a t i n gma r gi n i nt e r e s tbur de n a s s e tt ur no v e r l e v e r a g e t a xbu r de n ROEf orEa s t o v e r( EO)a ndf orSout ha mpt on( SHC)i n2007a r ef ounda sf ol l o ws : SHC: EO: Sales SHC: i nt e r e s tbur de n=Pretax profits EO: EBIT SHC: a s s e tt ur no v e r= Sales EO: Assets Assets SHC: l e v e r a g e= EO: Equity Net profits S HC: t a xbu r de n= Pretax profits EO: SHC: ROE EO: p r ofitma r gi n= EBIT 145/ 1, 793= 8. 1% 795/ 7, 406= 10. 7% 137/ 145= 0. 95 600/ 795= 0. 75 1, 793/ 2, 104= 0. 85 7, 406/ 8, 265= 0. 90 2, 140/ 1, 167= 1. 80 8, 265/ 3, 864= 2. 14 91/ 137= 0. 66 394/ 600= 0. 66 7. 8% 10. 2% 19-5 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis b . Th edi ffe r e nc e si nt hec o mpone n t sofROEf orEa s t o v e ra ndSout h a mp t ona r e : Pr ofitma r gi n EOha sahi ghe rma r gi n I nt e r e s tbur de n EOha sahi ghe ri nt e r e s tbu r de nbe c a u s ei t spr e t a xpr ofit sa r ea l o we rpe r c e nt a g eofEBI T As s e tt ur no v e r EOi smor ee ffic i e nta tt ur ni n go v e ri t sa s s e t s Le v e r a g e EOha shi ghe rfina nc i a ll e v e r a g e Ta xBu r de n Noma j ordi ffe r e n c ehe r ebe t we e nt het woc ompa ni e s ROE EOha sahi ghe rROEt ha nSHC,butt hi si sonl yi np a r tduet o hi ghe rma r gi nsa ndabe t t e ra s s e tt ur no v e r-gr e a t e rfina nc i a l l e v e r a g ea l s opl a y sapa r t . c . Th es us t a i na bl egr o wt hr a t ec a nbec a l c ul a t e da s :ROEt i me spl o wba c kr a t i o .Th e s u s t a i na bl egr o wt hr a t e sf orEa s t o v e ra ndSou t ha mp t ona r ea sf ol l o ws : o wba c k Sus t a i na bl e ROE Pl r a t i o * gr o wt hr a t e Ea s t o v e r 10. 2% 0. 36 3. 7% Sout h a mp t on 7. 8% 0. 58 4. 5% *Pl o wba c k=( 1–pa y o utr a t i o) EO: Pl o wba c k=( 1–0. 64)=0. 36 SHC: Pl o wba c k=( 1–0. 42)=0. 58 Th es us t a i na bl egr o wt hr a t e sd e r i v e di nt hi sma nne ra r eno tl i k e l yt obe r e pr e s e nt a t i v eoff ut ur egr o wt hbe c a u s e2007wa spr ob a bl yno ta“ nor ma l ”y e a r . ForEa s t o v e r ,e a r ni n g sha dnoty e tr e c o v e r e dt o200 42005l e v e l s ;e a r ni n g s r e t e nt i onofonl y0. 36s e e msl o wf orac o mpa n yi nac a pi t a li nt e ns i v ei ndus t r y . Sout h a mp t on ’ se a r ni n g sf e l lb yo v e r50pe r c e nti n2 007a ndi t se a r ni n g sr e t e nt i on wi l lp r oba bl ybehi ghe rt ha n0. 58i nt hef ut ur e .Th e r ei sad a n g e r ,t he r e f or e ,i n ba s i n gapr o j e c t i onononey e a r ’ sr e s ul t s ,e s pe c i a l l yf orc o mpa ni e si nac y c l i c a l i ndus t r ys u c ha sf or e s tp r oduc t s . 8. a . Th ef or mul af ort h ec ons t a ntgr o wt hdi s c ount e ddi vi de ndmode li s : P0 D 0 (1 g ) k g ForEa s t o v e r : P0 $1.20 1.08 $43.20 0.11 0.08 Thi sc o mpa r e swi t ht hec ur r e nts t oc kpr i c eof$28.Ont hi sba s i s ,i ta ppe a r st ha t Ea s t o v e ri sunde r v a l ue d. 19-6 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis b . Th ef or mul af ort h et wo s t a g edi s c ount e ddi vi de ndmode li s : P0 D3 P3 D1 D2 1 2 3 (1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k ) 3 ForEa s t o v e r :g1=0. 12a ndg2=0. 08 D0=1. 20 1=$ D1=D0( 1. 12) 1. 34 2=$ D2=D0( 1. 12) 1. 51 3=$ D3=D0( 1. 12) 1. 69 3( D4=D0( 1. 12) 1. 08)=$1. 82 P3 D4 $1.82 $60.67 k g 2 0.11 0.08 P0 $1.34 $1.51 $1.69 $60.67 $48.03 1 2 3 (1.11) (1.11) (1.11) (1.11) 3 Thi sa pp r oa c hma k e sEa s t o v e ra pp e a re v e nmor eunde r v a l ue dt ha nwa st hec a s e us i n gt hec ons t a ntgr o wt ha pp r oa c h. c . Ad v a n t a g e soft hec ons t a ntgr o wt hmode li nc l ude :( 1)l o gi c a l ,t he o r e t i c a lb a s i s ;( 2) s i mpl et oc o mput e ;( 3)i n put sc a nbee s t i ma t e d. Di s a d v a nt a g e si nc l ude :( 1)v e r ys e ns i t i v et oe s t i ma t e sofgr o wt h;( 2)ga ndkdi ffic ul t t oe s t i ma t ea c c ur a t e l y ;( 3)onl yv a l i df org<k ;( 4)c ons t a ntgr o wt hi sa nunr e a l i s t i c a s s u mp t i on;( 5)a s s ume sgr o wt hwi l lne v e rs l o wd o wn;( 6)di vi de ndpa y outmus t r e ma i nc ons t a nt ;( 7)no ta ppl i c a bl ef orfir msnotpa yi n gd i vi de nd s . I mpr o v e me nt so ffe r e db yt het wos t a g emode li nc l ude : ( 1)Th et wo s t a g emode li smor er e a l i s t i c .I ta c c ount sf orl o w,h i gh,orz e r ogr o wt hi nt he fir s ts t a g e ,f ol l o we db yc ons t a ntl on g t e r m gr o wt hi nt hes e c onds t a g e . ( 2)Th emode lc a nbeus e dt ode t e r mi nes t oc kv a l uewhe nt hegr o wt hr a t ei nt h efir s t s t a g ee x c e e d st her e q ui r e dr a t eofr e t ur n. 9. a . I nor d e rt ode t e r mi newhe t he ras t oc ki sund e r v a l ue doro v e r v a l ue d,a na l y s t sof t e n c omput epr i c e e a r ni n g sr a t i os( P/ Es )a ndpr i c e bookr a t i os( P/ Bs ) ;t he n,t he s e r a t i osa r ec o mpa r e dt obe n c hma r ksf ort hema r k e t ,s uc ha st heS&P500i nde x .The f or mul a sf ort he s ec a l c ul a t i onsa r e : Re l a t i v eP/ E= Re l a t i v eP/ B= 19-7 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis Toe v a l ua t eEOa ndSHCu s i n gar e l a t i v eP/ Emode l ,Mul r one yc a nc a l c ul a t et hefiv e y e a ra v e r a g eP/ Ef ore a c hs t oc k,a ndd i vi det ha tnu mbe rb yt h e5y e a ra v e r a g eP/ Ef or t heS&P500( s h o wni nt hel a s tc ol umnofTa bl e19E) .Thi sgi v e st h ehi s t or i c a l a v e r a g er e l a t i v eP/ E.Mul r one yc a nt he nc ompa r et hea v e r a g ehi s t or i c a lr e l a t i v eP/ Et o t hec ur r e ntr e l a t i v eP/ E( i . e . ,t h ec ur r e ntP/ Eone a c hs t oc k,u s i n gt hee s t i ma t eoft hi s y e a r ’ se a r ni n g spe rs h a r ei nTa bl e19F,di vi de db yt h ec ur r e ntP/ Eoft hema r k e t ) . Fort h epr i c e / bookmode l ,Mu l r one ys h oul dma k es i mi l a rc a l c ul a t i ons ,i . e . ,di vi de t hefiv e y e a ra v e r a g epr i c e bookr a t i of oras t oc kb yt hefiv ey e a ra v e r a g e pr i c e / bookf ort heS&P500,a ndc o mpa r et her e s ul tt ot hec ur r e ntr e l a t i v e pr i c e / book( u s i n gc ur r e ntbookv a l ue ) .Th er e s ul t sa r ea sf ol l o ws : P/ Emode l 5y e a ra v e r a g eP/ E Re l a t i v e5y e a rP/ E Cur r e ntP/ E Cur r e ntr e l a t i v eP/ E EO 16. 56 1. 09 17. 50 0. 87 SHC S&P500 11. 94 15. 20 0. 79 16. 00 20. 20 0. 79 Pr i c e / Bookmode l EO SHC S&P500 5y e a ra v e r a g epr i c e / book 1. 52 1. 10 2. 10 Re l a t i v e5y e a rpr i c e / book 0. 72 0. 52 Cur r e ntpr i c e / book 1. 62 1. 49 2. 60 Cur r e ntr e l a t i v epr i c e / book 0. 62 0. 57 Fr om t hi sa na l y s i s ,i ti se vi de ntt ha tEOi st r a di n ga tadi s c ountt oi t shi s t or i c a l5y e a r r e l a t i v eP/ Er a t i o ,wh e r e a sSou t ha mp t oni st r a di n gr i ghta ti t shi s t or i c a l5y e a rr e l a t i v e P/ E.Wi t hr e s pe c tt opr i c e / book,Ea s t o v e ri st r a di n ga tadi s c ountt oi t shi s t or i c a l r e l a t i v epr i c e / bookr a t i o ,whe r e a sSHCi st r a di n gmode s t l ya bo v ei t s5y e a rr e l a t i v e pr i c e / bookr a t i o .Asno t e di nt hep r e a mbl et ot hep r obl e m( s e eCF APr obl e m 7) , Ea s t o v e r ’ sbookv a l uei sunde r s t a t e dduet ot hev e r yl o whi s t or i c a lc os tba s i sf ori t s t i mbe r l a nds .Thef a c tt ha tEa s t o v e ri st r a di n gbe l o wi t s5y e a ra v e r a g er e l a t i v epr i c et o bookr a t i o ,e v e nt hou ghi t sbookv a l uei sunde r s t a t e d,ma k e sEa s t o v e rs e e me s pe c i a l l y a t t r a c t i v eonapr i c e / bookba s i s . b . Di s a d v a nt a g e soft her e l a t i v eP/ Emode li nc l ude :( 1)t her e l a t i v eP/ Eme a s u r e sonl y r e l a t i v e ,r a t he rt ha na b s ol ut e ,v a l ue ;( 2)t h ea c c o unt i n ge a r ni n g se s t i ma t ef ort h e ne xty e a rma yno te q ua ls us t a i na bl ee a r ni n g s ;( 3)a c c ount i n gpr a c t i c e sma yno tb e s t a nda r di z e d;( 4)c h a n gi n ga c c oun t i n gs t a nda r dsma yma k ehi s t or i c a lc omp a r i s on s di ffic ul t . Di s a d v a nt a g e sofr e l a t i v eP/ Bmode li nc l ude :( 1)bo okv a l uema yb eund e r s t a t e dor o v e r s t a t e d,pa r t i c ul a r l yf orac o mpa n yl i k eEa s t o v e r ,whi c hha sv a l u a bl ea s s e t soni t s booksc a r r i e da tl o whi s t or i c a lc os t ;( 2)bookv a l uema yno tb er e p r e s e nt a t i v eof e a r ni n gpo we rorf ut ur egr o wt hpo t e nt i a l ;( 3)c ha n gi n ga c c ount i n gs t a nda r dsma k e hi s t or i c a lc ompa r i s onsdi ffic ul t . 19-8 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis 10. Thef ol l o wi n gt a bl es umma r i z e st hev a l ua t i ona ndROEf orEa s t o v e ra ndSout ha mpt on: Ea s t o v e r Sout h a mp t on St oc kPr i c e $28. 00 $48. 00 Cons t a nt gr o wt hmode l $43. 20 $29. 00 2s t a g egr o wt hmode l $48. 03 $35. 50 Cur r e ntP/ E 17. 50 16. 00 Cur r e ntr e l a t i v eP/ E 0. 87 0. 79 5y e a ra v e r a g eP/ E 16. 56 11. 94 Re l a t i v e5y e a rP/ E 1. 09 0. 79 Cur r e ntP/ B 1. 62 1. 49 Cur r e ntr e l a t i v eP/ B 0. 62 0. 57 5y e a ra v e r a g eP/ B 1. 52 1. 10 Re l a t i v e5y e a rP/ B 0. 72 0. 52 Cur r e ntROE 10. 2% 7. 8% Sus t a i na bl egr o wt hr a t e 3. 7% 4. 5% Ea s t o v e rs e e mst obeunde r v a l ue da c c o r di n gt oe a c hoft hedi s c ount e dd i vi de ndmode l s . Ea s t o v e ra l s oa ppe a r st obec he a ponbo t har e l a t i v eP/ Ea ndar e l a t i v eP/ Bba s i s . Sou t ha mpt on,ont heo t he rha nd,l oo kso v e r v a l ue da c c or di n gt oe a c hoft hedi s c ount e d d i vi de ndmode l sa ndi ss l i ght l yo v e r v a l ue du s i n gt h er e l a t i v epr i c e / bookmode l .Ona r e l a t i v eP/ Eba s i s ,SHCa pp e a r st ob ef a i r l yv a l ue d.Sout ha mpt ondoe sha v eas l i ght l y h i gh e rs us t a i n a bl egr o wt hr a t e ,butno ta ppr e c i a bl ys o ,a ndi t sROEi sl e s st ha n Ea s t o v e r ’ s . Th ec ur r e ntP/ Ef orEa s t o v e ri sba s e donr e l a t i v e l yd e pr e s s e dc ur r e nte a r ni n g s ,y e tt he s t oc ki ss t i l la t t r a c t i v eont hi sba s i s .I na ddi t i on,t hepr i c e / bookr a t i of orEa s t o v e ri s o v e r s t a t e dduet ot hel o whi s t or i c a lc os tba s i sus e df ort het i mbe r l a nda s s e t s .Thi sma k e s Ea s t o v e rs e e ma l lt hemor ea t t r a c t i v eonapr i c e / bookba s i s .Ba s e dont hi sa n a l y s i s , Mul r one ys houl ds e l e c tEa s t o v e ro v e rSout h a mp t on. 11. a . Ne ti nc omec a ni nc r e a s ee v e nwhi l ec a s hflo wf r om ope r a t i onsd e c r e a s e s .Thi sc a n oc c uri ft h e r ei sabui l dupi nne two r ki n gc a pi t a l-f ore x a mpl e ,i nc r e a s e si n a c c oun t sr e c e i v a bl eori n v e nt or i e s ,orr e duc t i onsi na c c ount sp a y a bl e .Lo we r de pr e c i a t i one xpe ns ewi l la l s oi nc r e a s ene ti nc omebutc a nr e du c ec a s hflo w t h r ou ght h ei mpa c tont a x e so we d . b . Ca s hflo wf r om ope r a t i onsmi ghtb eag oodi ndi c a t orofafir m' sq ua l i t yofe a r ni n g s be c a us ei ts ho wswhe t he rt hefir mi sa c t ua l l yg e ne r a t i n gt hec a s hne c e s s a r yt op a y bi l l sa ndd i vi de nd swi t houtr e s or t i n gt one wfina nc i n g .Ca s hflo wi sl e s s s u s c e p t i bl et oa r bi t r a r ya c c ount i n gr ul e st ha nne ti nc omei s . 12. $1, 200 Ca s hflo wf r om op e r a t i ons=s a l e s–c a s he xpe n s e s–i nc r e a s ei nA/ R I gnor ede pr e c i a t i onbe c a u s ei ti sanonc a s hi t e ma ndi t si mp a c tont a x e si sa l r e a d y a c c ount e df or . 19-9 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis 13. a Bo t hc ur r e nta s s e t sa ndc ur r e ntl i a bi l i t i e swi l ld e c r e a s eb ye q u a la mount s .Butt hi s i sal a r g e rpe r c e n t a g ed e c r e a s ef orc ur r e ntl i a bi l i t i e sbe c a u s et h ei ni t i a lc ur r e ntr a t i o i sa bo v e1. 0.Sot hec ur r e ntr a t i oi nc r e a s e s .To t a la s s e t sa r el o we r ,s ot ur no v e r i nc r e a s e s . 14. a Cos tofg oodss ol di sund e r s t a t e ds oi nc omei shi ghe r ,a nda s s e t s( i n v e nt or y)a r e v a l ue da tmos tr e c e ntc os ts ot he ya r ev a l ue dhi ghe r . 15. a Si nc eg ood ss t i l li ni n v e nt or ya r ev a l ue da tr e c e n tv e r s u shi s t or i c a lc os t . 16. Considering the components of after-tax ROE, there are several possible explanations for a stable after-tax ROE despite declining operating income: 1. Declining operating income could have been offset by an increase in non-operating income (i.e., from discontinued operations, extraordinary gains, gains from changes in accounting policies) because both are components of profit margin (net income/sales). 2. Another offset to declining operating income could have been declining interest rates on any interest rate obligations, which would have decreased interest expense while allowing pre-tax margins to remain stable. 3. Leverage could have increased as a result of a decline in equity from: (a) writing down an equity investment, (b) stock repurchases, (c) losses; or, (d) selling new debt. The effect of the increased leverage could have offset a decline in operating income. 4. An increase in asset turnover could also offset a decline in operating income. Asset turnover could increase as a result of a sales growth rate that exceeds the asset growth rate, or from the sale or write-off of assets. 5. If the effective tax rate declined, the resulting increase in earnings after tax could offset a decline in operating income. The decline in effective tax rates could result from increased tax credits, the use of tax loss carry-forwards, or a decline in the statutory tax rate. 19-10 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn) lOMoARcPSD|18325619 Chapter 19 - Financial Statement Analysis 17. a . 2005 2009 ( 1)Op e r a t i n gma r gi n= 38 3 6.5% 542 76 9 6.8% 979 ( 2)As s e tt ur no v e r= 542 2.21 245 979 3.36 291 ( 3)I nt e r e s tBur de n= 38 3 3 0.914 38 3 1. 0 ( 4)Fi na nc i a lLe v e r a g e= 245 1.54 159 291 1.32 220 ( 5)I nc omet a xr a t e= 13 40.63% 32 37 55.22% 67 Us i n gt heDuPontf or mul a : ROE=[ 1. 0–( 5) ] ( 3) ( 1) ( 2) ( 4) ROE( 2005)=0. 5937 0. 914 0. 065 2. 21 1. 54=0. 120=12. 0% ROE( 2009)=0. 4478 1. 0 0. 068 3. 36 1. 32=0. 135=13. 5% ( Be c a us eofr oundi n ge r r or ,t he s er e s ul t sdi ffe rs l i g ht l yf r om t ho s eobt a i ne db y di r e c t l yc a l c ul a t i n gROEa sne ti nc ome / e q ui t y . ) b . As s e tt ur no v e rme a s u r e st hea bi l i t yofac omp a n yt omi ni mi z et hel e v e lofa s s e t s ( c ur r e ntorfix e d )t os u ppor ti t sl e v e lofs a l e s .Th ea s s e tt ur no v e ri nc r e a s e ds ub s t a nt i a l l y o v e rt hepe r i od,t hu sc ont r i but i n gt oa ni nc r e a s ei nt heROE. Fi na nc i a ll e v e r a g eme a s u r e st hea mountoffina nc i n go t he rt ha ne q ui t y ,i nc l udi n gs h or t a ndl on g t e r m de bt .Fi na nc i a ll e v e r a g ede c l i ne do v e rt h ep e r i od,t husa d v e r s e l y a ffe c t i n gt heROE.Si nc ea s s e tt ur no v e rr o s es ub s t a n t i a l l ymor et ha nfina nc i a ll e v e r a g e de c l i ne d,t hene te ffe c twa sa ni nc r e a s ei nROE. 19-11 Downloaded by hao wei (isfms@189.cn)