公司报告
首次覆盖
金斯瑞生物科技
(1548 HK)
中国
迎接高增长的来临
我们首次覆盖金斯瑞生物科技（“金斯瑞”─ 全球第一的基因合成服务
供应商），给予买入评级，目标价 4.70 港元。预测公司 15-18 财年的年
复合增长强劲，达到 41.3%，动力来自基因合成服务的销售利润提升、单
克隆抗体销售，以及与酶制造商济南诺能合并后，公司的工业用酶业务规
模扩大。我们的目标价基于本益比 1.0 倍计算，反映 17 财年预测市盈率
41.3 倍 (EV/EBITDA 25.1 倍)，较全球同业过去五年市盈率中值 26.9 倍
高+1 个标准差。
全球生物医学研究服务供应商。
金斯瑞于 2002 年在美国新泽西州成立，销售各种用于生物医学研究的生物技
术产品，拥有客户多达 5,000 名，来学术界及大学、研究机构、制药及生物技
术公司等领域，遍及超过 100 个国家。公司的主要生产基地设于南京，现时
扩展至镇江地区。为提升工业用酶的业务规模，金斯瑞于 16 上半年底收购济
南诺能生物工程的 51%股权。金斯瑞的产品主要用于研究用途（包括单克隆
抗体及寡核苷酸），因此销售前无需经过相关审批。
全球领先的基因合成服务供应商。
按销售计算，金斯瑞 2014 年是全球最大的基因合成服务供应商，销售占比达
到 25.6%。2003 年，公司成为 International Gene Synthesis Consortium(国际基
因合成联盟)的创始成员之一。此外，公司还研发出 GenPlusTM 下一代基因合
成 技 术 ， 用 于基 因 组 的 高 通 量 及 平 行 合 成 ， 每 月产出 100Mbp ， 相 当 于
100,000 个基因或 20 个细菌基因组。我们预测公司的基因合成销售于 16/17
财年将分别按年增长 20%/16.0%，占总收入的 46%-47%（15 财年：54%）。
扩大工业用酶业务。
公司自 14 上半年开始入账酶销售，将会持续制造反应及性质良好的工业用酶，
并且借力其于基因合成的专业知识，修饰及改善生产酶的微生物。这可应用
于整合和简化药物、食品加工和农业的基因合成程序。金斯瑞目前销售 4-5 款
产品，于 16 上半年底收购诺能的 51%股权，借此提升产品种类和销售。受惠
低基数效应，预测公司 16/17/18 财年增长率达到同比升 418%/99%/81%，相
对有机增长(没有收购情况下)为同比升 100%/143%/155%（16 上半年：210%），
占 16/17 财年总收入的 6%/10%。
首予买入，目标价 4.70 港元。
我们的目标价是 4.70 港元，基于本益比 1.0 倍计算。预测 15-18 财年每股盈
利按年复合增长 41.3%，得出 17 财年预测市盈率和 EV/EBITDA 分别为 41.3 倍
和 25.1 倍。我们认为估值溢价合理，基于：(1)每股盈利的年复合增长率高达
41.3%（15-18 财年）；(2)公司是全球第一的基因合成服务供应商；(3)收购诺
能后工业用酶销售增加；及(4) 多元化的生物医学小众领域（单克隆抗体）。
我们对抗癌抗原治疗的研发估值为每股 1.50 港元，未计入我们的目标价，占
目前估值的 32%。
医疗保健
生物技术与制药
2016 年 11 月 22 日
买入
目标价
HKD4.70
收盘价 (21 Nov 16)
HKD3.81
Upside/downside (%)
恒生指数
总市值 (HKDm/USDm)
52 周最高/最低 (HKD)
日均成交额 (USDm)
流通量 (%)
23.3
22357.78
6,421/828
1.10 - 3.80
4.29
25
资料来源: 彭博
股价表现
HKD
280%
3.50
3.00
230%
2.50
2.00
180%
1.50
1.00
130%
0.50
0.00
Dec-15
80%
Aug-16
Price(LHS)
Rel. to HSI(RHS)
资料来源: 彭博
股票数据
绝对回报 (%)
绝对回报 (USD, %)
相对 HSI 回报 (%)
资料来源: 彭博
1M
33.7
33.7
38.0
3M
132.3
132.2
134.8
12M
公司簡介
金斯瑞生物科技,于 2002 年,在美国新泽西州成立,向来自
生物技术或制药公司，教育部门（大学和研究机构）以及
100 多个国家的政府机构/经销商的 5,000 多个客户销售各
种生物技术或生化产品。他们的主要生产基地中国南京。
他们的产品类型为客户提供 - 从抗体服务项目，酶到基因
合成项目。北美，欧洲和中国的收入占上半年总收入的
57％/ 17％/ 9％，另外 14％来自亚洲，不包括日本和中
国。其主要股东包括：（1）章方良（董事长兼首席执行
官）（61.9％）和（2）KPCB 中国联营公司（13.2％）。
资料来源: 彭博,公司数据, 国信证券 (香港) 研究部
Figure 1: 盈利预测
截至 Dec 31
(美元百万)
营业额
净利润
实际盈利
每股实际盈利 (USD)
每股股息 (USD)
市盈率 (x)
股息率 (%)
市净率 (x)
每股实际盈利增长 (%)
净资产收益率 (%)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16F
FY17F
FY18F
70
6
6
0.005
0.0
96.6
0.0
9.67
2.9
10.8
87
18
11
0.009
0.0
54.0
0.0
4.04
78.9
10.6
116
24
24
0.012
0.0
41.2
0.0
6.01
31.0
15.1
141
29
29
0.015
0.0
33.6
0.0
5.86
22.9
17.7
179
37
37
0.019
0.0
25.9
0.0
5.36
29.6
21.6
萧智舜 PhD
证监会中央编号:AVV237
+852 2899 6747
jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
资料来源：公司数据, 国信证券 (香港) 研究部
研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。
2
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Valuation
A target price of HKD4.70 based on 1.0x PEG
Our TP of HKD4.70 is based on 1.0x PEG, given the company is forecast to grow at 41.3% EPS CAGR
from 2015 to 2018F. This translates to a target P/E in FY17F at 41.3x and we use its FY17F EPS at
HKD0.013/ shares to derive our current TP, +1SD above its global sector’s past 5-year forward P/E
mean. This is also consistent with our DCF valuation, which also points a similar TP at HKD4.74,
using WACC at 10.4% and terminal growth at 3.0%. Our TP also implies 25.1x FY17F EV/EBITDA,
premium to global sector median of 13.4x, but at 1.0x EV/EBITDA to EBITDA CAGR of 24.6% (FY1518F).
A target price of HKD4.70
based on 1.0x PEG
Figure 2 Global closest peer’s group comparison
3 - mt h
C om pa ny
Ti c k e r
R a t i ng
Div yld
Mkt cap
avg t / o
P ER H i st
P ER
P ER
3 - Yr EP S
( US $ m)
( US $ m)
( x)
FY1 ( x )
FY2 ( x )
C a gr ( %)
Price
A d just ed sect o r med ian*
3 1.3
2 1.4
19 .7
2 0 .3
P EG ( x )
0 .9
H i st
Div yld
P/ B
( %)
FY1 ( %)
H i st ( x )
0 .8
0 .2
4 .1
P / B EV/ EB I TD A EV/ EB I TD A
FY1 ( x )
3 .4
( FY16 F)
16 .0
( FY17 F)
13 .4
Novozymes-B Shs
NZYM B DC
Non-rated
245.40
11,283
21.8
26.6
24.4
23.1
6.9
3.52
1.4
N/A
6.68
N/A
15.4
Intrexon Corp
XON US
Non-rated
25.37
3,002
36.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
(27.1)
N/A
N/A
N/A
4.85
N/A
N/A
14.8
Du Pont (Ei)
DD US
Non-rated
69.51
60,428
177.6
32.0
21.5
18.6
24.7
0.87
2.2
0.7
6.35
6.35
14.7
10.8
Thermo Fisher
TM O US
Non-rated
151.81
59,969
237.9
30.6
18.4
16.4
27.6
0.67
0.4
0.1
2.77
2.70
18.7
14.8
Vwr Corp
VWR US
Non-rated
26.16
3,441
21.2
22.4
15.3
14.2
19.4
0.79
N/A
N/A
2.25
2.19
11.7
10.9
Waters Corp
WAT US
Non-rated
140.29
11,304
80.6
24.6
21.4
19.7
10.6
2.03
N/A
N/A
5.00
4.85
15.2
13.4
Perkinelmer Inc
PKI US
Non-rated
51.87
5,675
30.2
27.4
18.7
17.2
21.1
0.89
0.5
0.1
2.66
2.59
15.5
12.9
Agilent Tech Inc
A US
Non-rated
45.71
14,828
88.3
38.1
23.9
20.9
27.3
0.88
1.0
0.3
3.41
3.39
17.6
14.0
Albany M olecular
AM RI US
Non-rated
15.66
672
3.7
N/A
14.5
11.6
(374.0)
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.13
N/A
27.2
8.3
Illumina Inc
ILM N US
Non-rated
137.08
20,137
209.2
43.0
41.3
36.2
10.5
3.95
N/A
N/A
8.66
8.47
27.4
23.6
Bruker Corp
BRKR US
Non-rated
22.38
3,615
14.8
37.3
20.5
20.2
27.7
0.74
0.5
0.2
5.16
4.88
16.0
12.2
Qiagen Nv
QGEN US
Non-rated
27.49
6,405
27.4
50.9
25.8
22.1
36.6
0.71
N/A
N/A
2.42
2.42
19.8
15.0
Dsm (Konin)
DSM NA
Non-rated
56.63
11,342
38.7
125.8
18.7
15.9
107.3
0.17
2.9
2.1
1.72
N/A
10.9
9.1
N/A
* Out liner s and " N / A " ent r ies ar e in r ed and excl. f r o m t he calculat io n o f aver ag es
Source: Bloomberg data and Guosen Securities(HK) Research
Figure 3 Traditional bigger US biotech peer group comparison
3 - mt h
C ompa ny
Ti c k e r
R a t i ng
Price
Mkt cap
avg t / o
( U S $ m)
( U S $ m)
A d just ed sect o r med ian*
Div yld
P ER H i st
P ER
3 - Yr EP S
( x ) FY1 ( x ) FY2 ( x )
C a gr ( %)
2 0 .8
P ER
15.8
15.2
H i st
P EG ( x )
( %)
P/ B
P/ B
EV/ EB I TD A
EV/ EB I TD A
FY1 ( %) H i st ( x )
Div yld
FY1 ( x )
( FY16 F)
( FY17 F)
12 .7
1.1
2 .5
0 .6
5.7
2 .2
11.3
3.8
11.98
N/A
N/A
2.24
2.17
15.2
10 .7
Thermon Group Ho
THR US
Non-rated
20.70
669
2.7
28.8
45.4
29.6
Gilead Sciences
GILD US
Non-rated
76.42
100,680
766.0
6.2
6.7
7.0
(5.3)
N/A
2.4
0.6
5.99
N/A
4.7
13.7
5.2
Celgene Corp
CELG US
Non-rated
119.45
92,598
465.0
59.1
20.2
16.8
62.5
0.32
N/A
N/A
16.39
N/A
27.6
14.3
Biogen Inc
BIIB US
Non-rated
319.18
69,445
434.2
20.8
15.8
15.2
14.1
1.12
N/A
N/A
5.73
N/A
11.3
10.7
Amgen Inc
AM GN US
Non-rated
149.04
110,874
556.1
16.3
12.9
11.9
12.7
1.01
2.7
0.7
3.61
N/A
9.5
7.3
* Out liners and " N / A " ent ries are in red and excl. f ro m t he calculat io n o f averag es
Source: Bloomberg data and Guosen Securities(HK) Research
Guosen Securities (HK)
3
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Figure 4 Post-IPO forward P/E Band
4.00
+2SD = 27.5x
3.00
Share Price (HK$)
+1SD = 21.9X
2.00
Mean = 16.4x
-1SD = 12.2x
1.00
-2SD = 8.0x
0.00
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Source: Bloomberg data and Guosen Securities(HK) Research
Figure 5 5-Year Global closest peers’ P/E curve
Figure 6 5-Year US’s traditional biotech sector’s P/E curve
23.0
48.0
+2SD=21.1x
43.0
38.0
21.0
+1SD=41.7x
+1SD=19.0x
19.0
33.0
28.0
17.0
Mean=26.9x
23.0
Mean=17.0x
15.0
18.0
-1SD=14.9x
-1SD=12.0x
13.0
13.0
-2SD=13.0x
8.0
3.0
19-Oct-11
19-Oct-12
19-Oct-13
19-Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Guosen Securities (HK)
19-Oct-15
19-Oct-16
11.0
19-Oct-11
19-Oct-12
19-Oct-13
19-Oct-14
19-Oct-15
19-Oct-16
Source: Bloomberg data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research
4
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Figure 7 DCF valuation to check with our current TP using PEG method
DCF (the whole company)
Year ended Dec (USDm)
EBITDA
Less: income tax
Less: Capex
Increase/ (decrease) in working capital
Unlevered FCF
YoY
Capex to sales
FY16F
FY17F
FY18F
FY19F
FY20F
FY21F
FY22F
FY23F
FY24F
FY25F
FY26F
FY27F
FY28F
35
(7)
(10)
(9)
10
43
(8)
(27)
(3)
5
-51%
19.0%
54
(11)
(25)
(14)
4
-17%
14.0%
63
(13)
(19)
(15)
16
305%
8.0%
74
(15)
(17)
(7)
36
119%
6.0%
87
(18)
(19)
(14)
35
0%
6.0%
98
(20)
(28)
(8)
42
18%
7.5%
113
(23)
(32)
(17)
41
-2%
7.5%
134
(28)
(29)
(11)
66
59%
6.0%
171
(36)
(22)
(22)
91
39%
4.0%
215
(45)
(23)
(18)
128
41%
3.5%
263
(56)
(25)
(32)
151
17%
3.3%
313
(67)
(29)
(29)
188
25%
3.3%
8.4%
(USDm)
Present value of Terminal Value
Present value of FCF (2017-2027)
Ended-2017
786
299
Present value of Enterprise
1,085
Plus: cash
Less: debt
HKD/USD
Equity value (HKD)
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) (m)
127
3
7.75
9,370
1,976
Price Target (HKD per share)
Implied FY17F P/E x
PEG
4.74
41.7
1.0
% Debt
% Equity
Tax rate
10.0%
90.0%
22.0%
1+ (1-T)D/E
Unlevered project beta
Project equity beta
Risk-free rate
Market risk premium
3.5%
7.0%
Project equity beta
Market risk premium
Equity risk premium
Plus risk-free rate
Cost of equity
1.1
7.0%
7.5%
3.5%
11.0%
Cost of debt
After-tax cost of debt
Cost of equity
WACC
1.1
1.0
1.1
5.1%
11.0%
Weightings
10.0%
90.0%
6.5%
Weighted costs
0.5%
9.9%
10.4%
Source: Company data and Guosen Securities(HK) Research
Global expert and leader of synthetic genes
Global major clients as biotech’s R&D and academia
Global major clients as
biotech’s R&D and
academia.
Drug-maker/ biotech firms and universities/ research institutes took up 60% and 36% of total in
1H16, whereas on-line orders already made up 45% of 1H16 total compared to the rest from offline at 55%. Further, North America, Europe and China derived 57%/17%/9% of 1H16 total revenue,
with another 14% total was from Asia excluding Japan and China. Currently, the company’s
production centre is based in Nanjing, China, likely benefit from falling RMB. We see the research
services sector’s long-term growth driver would be the global demand of research and
development of better medicines for critical diseases as a result of ageing population.
Genscript Biotech has a strong global reach of clients of over 2,510, 1,760, 430, 620 and 370 from
North America, Europe, China, other Asia Pacific, reaching as much as over 100 countries. Note
that, they had done their services and supplied products to 19 out of global’s top twenty drugmakers by revenue.
Global leader in gene synthesis
Global leader in gene
synthesis
Guosen Securities (HK)
On the global perspective, albeit top five players dominated an aggregate of 74.2% global gene
synthesis sales in 2014, most of which were US companies. Genscript Biotech was #1 with 25.6% of
the global market with sales at USD35m in 2014. The company started to launch its gene synthesis
service since 2003, subsequently became a founding member of International Gene Synthesis
5
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Consortium with four other major global gene synthesis providers. In 2014, the company
developed GenPlusTM Next-Generation gene synthesis technology and started to provide the
relevant high-throughput gene synthesis services. At the same time, this segment technique has
benefited all other segments within the company including industrial enzyme production.
Genscript’s de novo synthesis of DNA molecules encoding novel or optimized proteins has
enriched their protein and antibody-related services and products. No doubt about their product’s
purities and market reputation, in 2012, the company was selected as the first pure commercial
entity to take part in Johns Hopkins University’s Synthetic Yeast Genome Sc2.0 Project. From this
large-scale project to make an ideal model organism for various usages such as medicines, the
company successfully finished the synthesis of 170kb long of DNA fragments of a special yeast
chromosome arm within three months. This work led to certain publications in peer-reviewed
journals, such as Nature.
The company’s gene synthesis expertise includes the construction of non-pathogenic microbial
strains that are used to produce high-quality industrial enzymes, in particular to food industry.
Figure 8 From DNA fragment to protein expression
Source: Genscript Biotech and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Note that, GenPlusTM Next-Generation gene synthesis technology is Genscript’s latest
breakthrough: a proprietary technology platform combines parallel synthesis and automation to
enable an unprecedented capacity of 100Mbp per month – similar to 100,000 genes or 20 bacterial
genomes.
Guosen Securities (HK)
6
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Figure 9 An example of high-throughput array-based gene synthesis technology
Source: Photograph courtesy from Curr Opin Chem Biol (by S.Ma, N.Tang and J Tian); Genscript Biotech and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
In 2015, the company’s gene synthesis services sales attained USD47m, a 22% y-o-y surge, making
up as much as 54% of its total revenue. During the 2016’s interim, its gene synthesis sales rose
21% y-o-y to USD26m, 48% of 1H16’s total. With our average order price assumption at USD2,500 2600 per annum, we project the company’s gene synthesis segment to attain 20% y-o-y/ 16.0% yo-y sales growth in FY16F-17F, reaching as much as USD56m/ USD64m respectively, still translating
to 46% -47% of its total revenue. This also implies a sales CAGR from 2015 to 2018F of 18.3%. In
2014, the company already had 67.1% of gross margin. With bigger economy of scale by higher
base pairs preparation per day as a result of advancing new techniques on high-throughput and
parallel synthesis, we project Genscript’s GPM to stay at 67.0% in FY16F, edging up to 68.0%/
71.0% in FY17F-18F respectively.
Protein production also
fares well
Protein production also fares well
The company’s protein production services has been extended to both expression and purification
of the target protein. Genscript can produce high quality recombinant proteins in four expression
system, namely bacterial, insect, mammalian, and yeast cells, towering up to over 5,300 highquality proteins. Of which, recombinant proteins can be used in various areas of research, such as
diagnostic analysis, drug discovery and development, and protein functional and structural studies.
In the past, the company also engaged in more complicated projects or orders, including
transmembrane proteins, protein complex by co-expression, biologically active enzymes, cytokines,
growth factors, envelop proteins, nuclear hormone receptors, and recombinant antibodies to its
global clients. Usually, this work requires 2 to 4 months to complete the protein production,
including cloning strategy design, gene synthesis and subcloning, protein expression, protein
production and the final function confirmation.
In 2015, Genscript’s protein production sales reached USD10m, up 22% y-o-y, making up 12% of
2015’s total revenue. In light of continuous demand of quality protein complex for many drugmaking and biotech industry, we project a 32% y-o-y sales growth in this segment for FY16F, due to
a low base in 2H15, arriving at USD14m. Given its low-base in the market, this segment is
estimated to surge 32% CAGR from 2015 to 2018. Same reason as in gene synthesis, we see the
Guosen Securities (HK)
7
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
GPM for the protein production to stay at 59.0% in 2016, same as in 2014, then edging up to
60.0%/ 62.0% in FY17F/18F.
Skillful antibody
development with high
entry barriers
Skillful antibody development with high entry barriers
Since 2004, the company has supplied 13,000 high-quality polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies
to its global clients, using technologies derived from in-house R&D efforts and advanced inlicensed technologies. Genscript also provides a unique next generation therapeutic (curable)
antibody development platform with clear advantages over the traditional monoclonal antibody
(MABs) method. Whereby its process involves antigen preparation, animal immunization, antibody
development and the final antibody purification, this usually takes 4 to 6 months for MAB
development, and 2 to 3 months for polyclonal antibody works. This segment sales, has been
booked as the other items within the life science research services, which also include sales from
oligonucleotide synthesis, DNA sequencing and peptide synthesis.
Further, Genscript also provides very professional oligonucleotide synthesis, especially those
labeled by fluorescent or non-fluorescent dyes, quencher pairs, or electrochemicals for qualitative
and quantitative detection. This can be used in genetic testing and personalized medicine. Its DNA
based oligonucleotides are produced with high purity by the company’s state-of-the-art oligosynthesiser, whose products’ identity and purity are checked by mass spectrometry and high
throughput capillary gel electrophoresis. Moreover, the company also makes a variety of RNA type
derivatives, like modified RNA, chimeric oligonucleotide with mixed DNA and RNA bases, 2’-MeORNA, 2’-F-RNA, and other antisense RNAs at client request. All RNA oligonucleotides’ identity and
purity are checked by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and HPLC.
All in all, we project this other segment sales to grow at 16.3% CAGR from 2015 to 2018, given its
(1) variety of products and services with good growth potential such as MABs, DNA and RNA
synthesis; and (2) historical sales CAGR at 18.8% from 2012 to 2015. We also see this other
segment sales will continue to make up 21%/ 20% in FY16F-17F of the company’s total (FY15:
23.1%).
Industrial enzymes to grow
big post Nornoon
consolidation
Novozymes dominated 44%
of the global market in 2014
Industrial enzymes to grow big post Nornoon consolidation
The company started to record sales from industrial enzyme segment since 1H14. Genscript will
use its gene synthesis expertise to modify and improve the industrial enzyme producing
microorganism. Such that, the modified microbes can produce industrial enzymes with good yields
and effective performance properties. In particular, Genscript will continue to spend R&D on
industrial enzymes for food industry, as well as chemical drug production and beverage sector.
Since 2013, the company had developed product lines for a few enzymes under the brand name of
Bestzyme, especially for starch processing industry with 4-5 products on sales. The company is
expected to roll out the second generation of thermal and acid stable alpha-amylase in mid-2016.
They currently keep the design and laboratory scale production of their industrial enzyme products
in-house, while the company outsources the large-scale manufacturing and formulations to other
third-party suppliers. In April 2016, Genscript acquired 51% interests in Jinan Nornoon Biological
Engineering (Nornoon) (济南诺能生物工程有限公司) in China at a cash consideration of RMB53m.
This reflects a 22.1x FY15 P/E or 15.7x FY17F P/E under our estimate for Nornoon. Genscript is
likely to help improve Nornoon’s existing production capacity.
Founded in 2009, Nornoon has an annual capacity of 3Ktons, and its fermentation base was
derived from Jinan Tiantianxiang Co., Ltd. (济南天天香有限公司), whose enzyme production has
started in 2000. Currently, Nornoon can make enzymes for (1) animal feeds; (2) food industry; and
(3) industrial-use. This company had booked a net profit of RMB4.7m in 2015 (2014: RMB1m).
Based on the service network of Chinese Academy of Science for microbiology, Novozymes
(NZYMB.DC, NR) dominated 44% of the global market in 2014, with DuPont and DSM to have 20%
and 6% of market shares. In China, we believe that the current supply of industrial enzymes still
relies on imports from overseas companies. In 2013, the market estimated China’s annual usage
Guosen Securities (HK)
8
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
China’s current biggest
domestic supplier of
industrial enzyme is
Guandong Vtr Bio-tech Co.
reached 1.1m tons, of which Novozymes taking up two-third of this market, followed by DuPont.
China’s biggest domestic supplier of industrial enzymes is currently Guandong Vtr Bio-tech Co.
( 广东溢多利生物科技 ) (300381.CH, NR), followed by Youtell Biochemical (湖南尢特爾生
化),Beijing Smistyle Science and Technology Development (北京昕大洋科技发展), and Sunhy
Group (武汉新华扬生物股份).
Figure 10 Global industrial enzyme market shares in 2014
Others, 30%
Novozymes,
44%
DSM, 6%
Dupont, 20%
Source: The service network of Chinese Academy of Science for microbiology and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Global industrial enzyme
market to forge ahead to
USD6.0bn by 2016 from
2014’s USD3.7bn
While we see the global industrial enzyme market to forge ahead to USD6.0bn by 2016 from
2014’s USD3.7bn, on the need of cleaner and fewer synthetic steps for food and drug synthesis. In
2015, Genscript Biotech only recorded USD1.4m, over 289% jump from 2014. The company also
reported a similar sales value just for 1H16. In light of the completion of 51% stake acquisition of
Nornoon, we expect its 2H16 sales to be USD5.6m with USD4.3m sales from Nornoon. This leads to
its full-year sales for industrial enzyme in FY16F to be USD7m, a 418% y-o-y jump, with Genscript’s
organic sales growth to be 100% y-o-y (at USD2.7m) on its low base and being in rapid sales rampup phase. We foresee the company’s industrial enzyme sales will still continue to grow at
418%/99%/81% y-o-y in FY16F-18F versus organic growth at 100%/143%/155% y-o-y. In this case,
we also factor in a conservative forecast on Nornoon’s revenue growth in FY17F-FY18F to be 11%/
15% y-o-y, partly on RMB devaluation and more time needed to ramp its sales channel in China.
All in all, this enzyme segment will account for 6%/10%/14% of FY16F-18F total revenue (FY15:
1.6% & 1H16: 2.6%). Industrial enzymes’ gross margin in 1H16 of 13.1% was larger than FY15’s
5.5%, we see its gross margin would likely improve after its revamp of production issues, foraging
ahead to 25.0% in FY16F and up to 35.0% in FY17F.
Guosen Securities (HK)
9
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Financial projection
Stunning core profit growth at 110% y-o-y in 2016
Stunning core profit growth
at 110% y-o-y in 2016
We foresee that its gene synthesis services sales, making up 48% of FY16’s total revenue, will surge
20% y-o-y in FY16F (FY15: 22%), with 1H16 also at 21% y-o-y. This is well-supported by (1) true
expertise in gene synthesis; and (2) robust demand of quality modified genome for organisms to
further research in drug synthesis, food processing and agriculture. Coupled with other vast
demand and sales of modified antibodies and oligonucleotide (DNA and RNA) synthetic products,
we expect this big segment sales of life science research service to hit USD94m, a solid 22% y-o-y
increase. In addition, industrial enzyme sales would have a breakthrough to reach USD7m (+418%
y-o-y), post integration of Nornoon sales in 2H16 of USD4.3m. All in all, its FY16’s total revenue
would likely attain USD116m, a 33% y-o-y jump (1H16: 30%). Its blended gross margin is seen to
stay at 65.5% level compared to FY15’s 65.8% and 1H16’s 67.5%, again on stable gene synthesis’
margin at 67.0% and wider margin sales from growing industrial enzymes segment. We expect its
operating (opex) expenses to sales ratio to stand at 39.8%, similar to 1H16’s 40.6% (1H15: 48.0%),
on better sales channels and network. Its blended tax rate should stay similar to 1H16’s 21.3% at
22.0%. Our underlying profit is forecast to be USD24m, a stunning 111% y-o-y jump from FY15’s
USD11m. This FY15 profit number is derived from its reported earnings of USD17.5m, after adding
back of a listing expenses of USD5m, and deducting gains from (1) the settlement of intellectual
property infringement dispute; and (2) foreign currency exchange.
Trade receivables days is forecast to edge up to 62 days, from 2015’s 61 days; while inventory days
will be largely similar to 2015’s 23 days. Cash conversion cycle will likely stand at 53 days, up from
2015’s 52 days. Bank deposits and cash is seen to be USD124m at end-2016, up from end-2014’s
USD104m, on gains from operating cashflow as a result of bigger profit. Further, we expect the
company will invest USD6m/ 2m/2m for plant expansion and constructions in Jinan (Nornoon),
Zhenjiang and Nanjing headquarters respectively, totaling USD10m of capex, 8% of total revenue.
We do not expect the company will pay dividend in 2016, same for 2015.
Good 23% y-o-y profit growth in 2017
Good 23% y-o-y profit
growth in 2017
We foresee that its gene synthesis services sales will still make up 46% of FY16’s total revenue,
achieving 17% y-o-y in FY17F (FY16F: 20%), consistent with 18% CAGR (2014-18). Again, this would
be likely driven by robust demand of good-quality modified genome for organisms to further
research and production in different areas (medicines, agriculture and food industry). To sort out
the issue of intellectual property right argument with their clients when dealing with in vitro/ in
vivo preclinical trials, the company is expected to cut out its pre-clinical drug development
business. This will likely result in smaller sales at USD5m, 3% of 2017F’s total revenue (FY16F: 8%),
expecting this segment to have no sales in 2018. At the same time, the company is seen to
replenish the smaller sales from preclinical work to industrial enzymes sales at USD14m (+99% y-oy). This will be assisted by the full-year consolidation of Nornoon sales in 2017 at USD7m (+11% yo-y), with the company’s organic sales growth for enzymes at 143% y-o-y (USD7m). All in all,
Genscript’s total revenue is projected to grow at 22% y-o-y at USD141m (FY16F: 33%). On bigger
economy of scale in production, as well as its products’ stable selling price and wider margin sales
of gene synthesis at 68.0%, we forecast its blended GPM to stay at 65.5%, same as in 2016. While
its opex to sales will likely stay at 39.5% of total revenue in 2017, little smaller in 2016F’s 39.8%. As
such, our underlying profit in 2017F is forecast to be USD29m, 23% y-o-y increase.
Trade receivable and inventory days were largely similar to our estimated numbers as in 2016 at
62 and 25 (2016F: 62 and 23 days). Bank deposits and cash is forecast to be USD127m at end-2017
(end-2016F: USD124m), on bigger capex for the Jinan (Nornoon) and Zhenjiang sites which will be
offset a similar operating cashflow at USD36m vs 2016F of USD37m. Moreover, we expect the
capex in 2017F will be dedicated as USD8m for Jinan, USD15m for Zhenjiang sites and about
USD4m for Nanjing headquarters, towering a 2017F capex at USD27m, 19% of total revenue.
Guosen Securities (HK)
10
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Figure 11 Genscript’s development timeline
Source: Genscript Biotech and Guosen Securities(HK) Research
Figure 12 Customer breakdown by category at end-Jun 2016
Figure 13 Customer breakdown by region in 1H16
Japan, 3.3%
China, 8.5%
Colleges and
universities,
23.8%
APAC (excl
China &
Japan),
14.2%
Pharma and
biotech ,
60.1%
Research
Institutes,
12.5%
Europe,
17.2%
Government
bodies, 1.8%
North
America,
56.7%
Distributors,
1.9%
Source: Genscript Biotech; Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Source: Genscript Biotech, Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Figure 14 Number of purchase orders at end-Jun 2016 (through on-line or offline)
Source: Genscript Biotech and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Guosen Securities (HK)
11
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Figure 15 Summary of key life sciences research services offered by Genscript Biotech
Source: Genscript Biotech and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Figure 16 Production and sales offices of Genscript Biotech
Source: Genscript Biotech and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Guosen Securities (HK)
12
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Figure 17 P&L analysis
Year-ended Dec (USDm)
FY14
1H15
2H15
FY15
1H16
2H16F
FY16F
FY17F
FY18F
Total revenue
YoY change
70.0
16.5%
41.1
22.5%
45.7
25.2%
86.7
23.9%
53.2
29.6%
62.3
36.5%
115.5
33.3%
140.1
21.3%
178.2
27.2%
Cost of sales
(25.9)
(14.2)
(15.4)
(29.6)
(17.3)
(22.5)
(39.8)
(48.3)
(59.9)
Gross profit
YoY change
GPM
44.1
15.3%
63.0%
26.9
25.3%
65.4%
30.2
33.3%
66.2%
57.1
29.4%
65.8%
35.9
33.7%
67.5%
39.8
31.8%
63.9%
75.7
32.7%
65.5%
91.8
21.3%
65.5%
118.3
28.8%
66.4%
Selling and distribution expenses
% of total revenue
(15.5)
22.2%
(8.4)
20.4%
(9.3)
20.3%
(17.6)
20.3%
(9.6)
18.0%
(10.3)
16.5%
(19.9)
17.2%
(23.1)
16.5%
(29.9)
16.8%
Administrative expenses
% of total revenue
(21.4)
30.6%
(11.3)
27.6%
(17.2)
37.7%
(28.5)
32.9%
(12.1)
22.7%
(14.1)
22.5%
(26.1)
22.6%
(32.2)
23.0%
(41.0)
23.0%
(5.6)
8.0%
(2.4)
5.9%
(4.7)
10.2%
(7.1)
8.2%
(3.5)
6.7%
(6.9)
11.0%
(10.4)
9.0%
(14.0)
10.0%
(19.6)
11.0%
7.1
-17.2%
10.2%
7.2
73.0%
17.5%
3.7
25.6%
8.2%
10.9
53.2%
12.6%
14.3
99.0%
26.8%
15.5
314.9%
24.8%
29.7
172.8%
25.7%
36.5
155.5%
26.0%
47.4
206.6%
26.6%
1.5
0.7
11.6
12.4
(0.0)
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
Other expenses
% of total revenue
(0.3)
0.5%
(0.0)
0.0%
(0.3)
0.0%
(0.3)
0.3%
(0.0)
0.1%
(0.4)
0.6%
(0.4)
0.3%
(0.6)
0.4%
(0.7)
0.4%
Finance costs
(0.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.2)
(0.1)
8.2
7.9
15.1
23.0
14.2
16.0
30.3
36.9
47.8
7.8
(1.7)
20.1%
7.9
(2.2)
27.2%
15.1
(3.3)
22.0%
23.0
(5.5)
23.8%
14.2
(3.0)
21.3%
15.9
(3.6)
22.7%
30.2
(6.6)
22.0%
36.8
(8.1)
22.0%
47.7
(10.5)
22.0%
6.2
0.0
2.9%
5.7
0.0
42.0%
11.8
0.0
452.3%
17.5
0.0
183.5%
11.2
0.0
94.8%
12.3
0.0
4.9%
23.5
0.0
34.4%
28.7
0.0
21.9%
37.2
0.0
29.6%
0.0
(1.7)
8.0
6.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.2
2.9%
8.8%
7.4
83.1%
18.0%
3.8
76.7%
8.2%
11.2
80.9%
12.9%
11.2
51.2%
21.0%
12.3
227.9%
19.8%
23.5
110.7%
20.4%
28.7
21.9%
20.5%
37.2
29.6%
20.9%
Y-o-y
Total revenue
Gross profit
Selling and distribution expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT
EBT
Core profit
16.5%
15.3%
21.3%
27.2%
4.8%
4.1%
2.9%
22.5%
25.3%
10.4%
16.6%
47.3%
53.5%
83.1%
25.2%
33.3%
16.5%
46.7%
422.3%
460.4%
76.7%
23.9%
29.4%
13.5%
33.1%
178.6%
193.2%
80.9%
29.6%
33.7%
14.4%
6.5%
80.1%
80.1%
51.2%
36.5%
31.8%
11.1%
-18.3%
6.4%
5.7%
227.9%
33.3%
32.7%
12.6%
-8.5%
31.7%
31.3%
110.7%
21.3%
21.3%
16.4%
23.4%
22.1%
21.9%
21.9%
27.2%
28.8%
29.5%
27.2%
29.4%
29.6%
29.6%
Margin analysis
Total revenue
Gross profit
Selling and distribution expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT
EBT
Core profit
100.0%
63.0%
22.2%
30.6%
11.8%
11.2%
8.8%
100.0%
65.4%
20.4%
27.6%
19.2%
19.2%
18.0%
100.0%
66.2%
20.3%
37.7%
33.0%
33.0%
8.2%
100.0%
65.8%
20.3%
32.9%
26.5%
26.5%
12.9%
100.0%
67.5%
18.0%
22.7%
26.7%
26.7%
21.0%
100.0%
63.9%
16.5%
22.5%
25.7%
25.6%
19.8%
100.0%
65.5%
17.2%
22.6%
26.2%
26.1%
20.4%
100.0%
65.5%
16.5%
23.0%
26.4%
26.2%
20.5%
100.0%
66.4%
16.8%
23.0%
26.8%
26.7%
20.9%
R&D cost
% of total revenue
Operating profit
YoY change
Operating margin
Other income and gains
EBIT
EBT
Income tax expense
Tax rate
Profit for the year (reported)
MI
YoY change
Adjustment
Core profit
YoY change
Core profit margin
Source: Company data and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Guosen Securities (HK)
13
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Figure 18 revenue breakdown
Year-ended Dec (USDm)
FY14
1H15
2H15
FY15
1H16
2H16F
FY16F
FY17F
FY18F
Revenue
Life sciences research service
YoY change
% Total revenue
63.2
14.2%
90.3%
36.8
21.3%
89.6%
40.1
22.0%
87.9%
76.9
21.7%
88.7%
44.4
20.6%
83.4%
49.1
22.3%
78.8%
93.5
21.5%
80.9%
110.8
18.6%
78.5%
131.0
18.2%
73.0%
Gene synthesis services
YoY change
% Total revenue
38.4
10.7%
54.8%
21.3
14.6%
51.8%
25.4
28.3%
55.6%
46.7
21.7%
53.8%
25.7
20.6%
48.2%
30.1
18.7%
48.4%
55.8
19.6%
48.3%
65.4
17.2%
46.4%
76.3
16.6%
42.5%
Protein production services
YoY change
% Total revenue
8.4
23.5%
12.0%
6.2
62.1%
15.1%
4.0
-12.2%
8.8%
10.2
21.7%
11.8%
7.5
20.6%
14.1%
6.0
49.7%
9.6%
13.5
32.0%
11.7%
17.7
31.3%
12.5%
23.2
31.3%
12.9%
Other
YoY change
% Total revenue
16.5
18.3%
23.5%
9.3
17.3%
22.7%
10.8
25.8%
23.5%
20.0
21.7%
23.1%
11.2
20.6%
21.1%
13.0
20.6%
20.8%
24.2
20.6%
20.9%
27.7
14.7%
19.6%
31.5
13.7%
17.6%
Life sciences research catalog products
YoY change
% Total revenue
2.0
33.9%
2.9%
1.2
25.2%
2.9%
1.3
17.0%
2.8%
2.5
20.8%
2.8%
2.7
126.6%
5.0%
2.8
120.6%
4.6%
5.5
123.4%
4.8%
11.6
110.0%
8.2%
23.2
100.0%
12.9%
Preclinical drug development services
YoY change
% Total revenue
4.4
36.0%
6.3%
2.6
22.1%
6.4%
3.3
49.9%
7.3%
6.0
36.2%
6.9%
4.8
80.4%
9.0%
4.8
43.8%
7.7%
9.5
60.0%
8.3%
4.8
-50.0%
3.4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.3
N/A
0.5%
0.5
376.8%
1.1%
0.9
256.5%
2.0%
1.4
289.4%
1.6%
1.4
209.7%
2.6%
5.6
522.3%
9.0%
7.0
417.8%
6.1%
13.9
98.8%
9.9%
25.2
80.6%
14.0%
70.0
16.5%
41.1
22.5%
45.7
25.2%
86.7
23.9%
53.2
29.6%
62.3
36.5%
115.5
33.3%
141.1
22.2%
179.4
27.1%
Year-ended Dec (USDm)
Gross margin breakdown
FY14
1H15
2H15
FY15
1H16
Life sciences research service
Gene synthesis services
Protein production services
Others
Life sciences research catalog products
Preclinical drug development services
Industrial synthetic biology products
Blended margin
63.2%
67.1%
59.3%
56.1%
66.5%
63.8%
0.0%
63.0%
66.3%
70.7%
67.6%
55.6%
59.3%
64.4%
-46.4%
65.4%
67.6%
67.6%
48.3%
74.7%
69.2%
65.8%
31.5%
66.2%
67.0%
69.0%
60.0%
65.9%
64.4%
65.2%
5.5%
65.8%
69.5%
68.0%
60.0%
79.3%
64.7%
66.2%
13.1%
67.5%
Industrial synthetic biology products
YoY change
% Total revenue
Total revenue
YoY change
Source: Company data and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Figure 19 Gross margin assumptions
2H16F
68.0%
66.1%
57.8%
76.9%
64.3%
63.8%
28.0%
63.9%
FY16F
68.7%
67.0%
59.0%
78.0%
64.5%
65.0%
25.0%
65.5%
FY17F
69.5%
68.0%
60.0%
79.0%
65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
65.5%
FY18F
71.6%
71.0%
62.0%
80.0%
66.0%
0.0%
40.0%
66.4%
Source: Company data and Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Guosen Securities (HK)
14
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Summary financial statements(Year to Dec 31)
Profit & Loss (USDm)
Revenue
FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F
Financial Ratios
FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F
70
87
116
141
179
Gross profit margin (%)
63.0
65.8
65.5
65.5 66.4
Revenue growth (%)
16.5
23.9
33.3
22.2
27.1
Operating profit margin (%)
10.2
12.6
25.7
26.0 26.6
Cost of sales
(26)
(30)
(40)
(49)
(60)
Underlying profit margin (%)
8.8
12.9
20.4
20.5 20.9
Gross profit
44
57
76
93
119
Net debt/equity (%)
(46.2) (69.6) (75.9) (75.2) (75.2)
0
0
0
0
0
Net debt/total assets (%)
(30.9) (57.1) (59.7) (57.7) (56.2)
(37)
(46)
(46)
(56)
(71)
7
11
30
37
48
Other income/(expense)
Operating expenses
Operating profit
Operating profit growth (%)
Current ratio (%)
150
431
433
388
353
Dividend payout (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(17.2)
53.2
173
23.6
29.9
Interest cover (x)
17.3
0.0
309
237
385
Other non-operating inc/(exp)
1
12
1
0
0
Dividend cover (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Finance income
0
0
0
0
0
Acct. receivable turnover days
55.2
61.2
62.4
62.4 62.4
Finance expenses
0
0
0
0
0
Acct. payable turnover days
33.2
32.5
32.9
32.9 32.9
Associates & JCE
0
0
0
0
0
Inventory turnover days
22.4
23.4
23.4
25.0 25.7
Profit before taxation
8
23
30
37
48
Cash cycle days
44.4
52.1
52.9
54.5 55.2
(2)
(5)
(7)
(8)
(11)
Non-controlling interests
0
0
0
0
0
Net profit
6
18
24
29
37
Other Adjustments on UP
0
(6)
0
0
0
Taxation
Underlying Profit
Underlying profit growth (%)
Dupont Analysis
FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F
Tax burden (%)
78.8
76.2
78.0
Interest burden (%)
110
211
101
78.0 78.0
101
Operating profit margin (%)
10.2
12.6
25.7
26.0 26.6
101
6
11
24
29
37
Asset turnover (x)
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
2.9
80.9
111
22.9
29.6
Leverage ratio (x)
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
EPS (USD)
0.005 0.014 0.012 0.015 0.019
ROA (%)
7.0
8.1
12.1
13.7 16.4
Underlying EPS (USD)
0.005 0.009 0.012 0.015 0.019
ROE (%)
10.8
10.6
15.1
17.7 21.6
Underlying EPS growth (%)
2.9
78.9
31.0
22.9
29.6
DPS (USD)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
DPS growth (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Balance Sheet (USDm)
Fixed assets
FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F
38
38
40
42
44
0
0
0
0
0
Others
11
11
13
14
Non-current assets
49
49
52
2
2
3
Debtors & prepayments
13
27
Bank deposits & cash
26
104
Associates & JCE
Inventories
Others
8
23
30
37
48
Depreciation & amortization
5
5
5
6
6
15
Interest expense
0
0
0
0
0
55
58
Change in working capital
4
5
26
30
41
124
127
138
3
0
0
0
0
133
153
160
184
Bank & other borrowings
0
0
2
3
Trade & payables
3
2
5
Taxation
0
4
4
Others
26
25
Current liabilities
29
Bank & other borrowings
Others
Non-current liabilities
Net assets
Share capital
FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F
EBIT
44
Current assets
Cashflow (USDm)
0
(10)
2
(5)
(10)
(4)
(2)
(4)
(5)
(6)
3
4
3
3
3
Operating activities
12
20
37
36
41
Capex
Tax paid
Other operating cashflow
(7)
(7)
(10)
(27)
(25)
Free cash flow
5
13
28
9
16
2
Disposal of non-current assets
0
0
0
0
0
4
7
Associates & JCE (net)
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
Interest received
0
0
0
0
0
25
31
39
Dividends received
0
0
0
0
0
31
35
41
52
Other investing cashflow
(2)
3
2
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
Investing activities
(9)
(4)
(8)
1
2
2
2
2
New loans raised
8
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
2
2
Repayment of loans
(15)
0
0
0
0
62
149
168
172
188
Dividends paid
0
0
0
0
0
(25) (22)
0
2
2
2
2
Other financing cashflow
8
65
(6)
(5)
(5)
Premium & reserves
62
148
160
164
179
Financing activities
0
65
(6)
(5)
(5)
Shareholders' funds
62
149
162
166
181
Inc/(dec) in cash
3
81
23
6
14
127
Non-controlling interests
0
0
6
7
7
Cash at beginning of year
22
26
104
124
Total equity
62
149
168
172
188
Foreign exchange effect
0
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
BVPS (USD)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Cash at end of year
26
104
124
127
138
Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research
Guosen Securities (HK)
Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research
15
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
Information Disclosures
Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions
Stock Ratings:
Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Sector Ratings:
Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 –12 months.
Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 – 12 months.
Interest disclosure statement
The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an
officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies.
Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively “Guosen Securities (HK)”) has no disclo sable
financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen
Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK)
has no individual employed by the listed companies.
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profit made as a result of buying and selling securities.
The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (H K) and does not constitute any
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This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or
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Guosen Securities (HK)
16
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)
Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, jason.siu@guosen.com.hk
信息披露
公司评级、行业评级及相关定义
公司评级
买入：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，个股相对大盘涨幅在 10%以上；
中性：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，个股相对大盘涨幅介于-10%与 10%之间；
减持：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10%。
行业评级
超配：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10%以上；
中性：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，行业整体回报介于市场整体水平-10%与 10%之间；
低配：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10%以上。
利益披露声明
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