12/13/2021
Project Management:
A Systems Approach to
Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling
Twelfth Edition
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter Seventeen
Risk Management
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
1
12/13/2021
Learning Outcomes
After careful studying this chapter You should be able to
• Explain what is meant by a risk
• Describe the components of a risk
• Define and construct the payoff table
• Discuss who is performing risk management
throughout the project
• Differentiate between types of risks
• Clarify what is meant by one’s tolerance for risk
• List different sources of a risk
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Learning Outcomes (cont.)
• Define what is meant by a risk event
• Describe the components of a risk management plan
• Discuss some risk gathering techniques such as the
Delphi technique and brainstorming
• Compare between quantitative risk analysis
qualitative risk analysis
• Discuss some risk response modes
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
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Basic Concept
Risk management focuses on:
• Known unknowns
• Proactive management
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
The alternative to proactive
management is reactive
management, also called crisis
management. This requires
significantly more resources and
takes longer for problems to
surface.
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
12/13/2021
Risk Management
• Risk management focuses on the future
• Risk and information are inversely related
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk Management (cont.)
• Historically, we focused our attentions on
schedule and cost risk management.
• Today, our primary emphasis is on
technological risk management:
• Can we design it and build it?
• What is the risk of obsolescence (uselessness)?
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
4
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Definition of Risk
Risk
= f (Likelihood, Impact)
event
• Likelihood is the probability of occurrence.
• Impact is the amount at stake and can be favorable or
unfavorable.
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Tolerance for Risk
• Risk avoider
• Risk neutral
• Risk lover
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
5
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Decision-Making Categories
• Complete uncertainty
• Relative uncertainty (partial information)
• Complete certainty
A payoff table is a matrix that allows decisionmakers to look at the impact various courses of
action called alternatives, as opposed to defaults,
which are the status quo actions.
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Developing and Using Payoff Tables
Establishing the
procedure to follow
Construct the
payoff table
Decision making
under certainty
Decision making
under complete
uncertainty
Decision making
under risk
Maxi-min approach
Maxi-max approach
Mini-max regret approach
Insufficient reason approach
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) approach
Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) approach
Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) approach
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FIVE STEPS TO DEVELOP PAYOFF TABLE
• List all the alternatives.
• List the future consequences of each
alternative.
• Identify the payoffs associated with each
combination.
• Assess the degree of certainty that these
combinations will materialize.
• Decide on a decision criterion.
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Payoff Table
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
7
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Risk Management Processes
• Risk planning
• Risk assessment
• Risk identification
• Risk analysis/quantification
• Risk handling
• Risk monitoring
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Developing
Contingency Plans
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Types of Risks (General)
• Business risks
• Insurable (pure) risk
•
•
•
•
Direct property damage
Indirect consequential loss
Legal liability
Personnel
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Types of Risk (PMI Method)
•
•
•
•
•
External – unpredictable
External – predictable
Internal – nontechnical
Internal – technical
Legal
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Risk Types at Boeing
•
•
•
•
Financial risks
Market risks
Technical risks
Production risks
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk Quantification
STAGE I
STAGE II
GUID- WARHEAD
ANCE
PROGRAM
SUMMARY
DESIGN
LEGEND
TEST
HIGH
MANU.
MEDIUM
COST
LOW
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Risk Handling
•
•
•
•
•
•
Assumption (retention)
Avoidance
Reduce
Control (mitigation)/ (Engineering
controls or administrative control)
Transfer
Accept
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
11
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Risk Problem
Solving
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Idea Generation:
Brainstorming
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
12
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Special Topics in
Risk
Management
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Future Risks
Inexperienced
Customer’s
Knowledge
Experienced
Simple
Complex
Contract Type
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
13
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How Much Risk Is Acceptable?
• High tolerance for risk
• Medium tolerance for risk
• Low tolerance for risk
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Degrees of Downstream Risk
Low Risk
R&D
Manufacturing
Marketing
Time
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Degrees of Downstream Risk
Moderate Risk
Information
Exchange
R&D
Manufacturing
Marketing
Time
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Degrees of Downstream Risk
High Risk
R&D
Manufacturing
Marketing
Time
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Prioritization of Risks
Schedule
Cost
Technical
Performance
or Quality
First
(Highest)
Priority
Second
Priority
Third
Priority
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk Controls
Schedule Length
Too
Long
Appropriate
Too Many
Risk Management
Filters and
Gates
No
Risk Plan
High
Low
Risk Controls
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
16
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Risk Control Measures
Range of Controls
Intensity of Controls
Extreme
Standard
Controls
Low
Low
High
Risk Intensity
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Which Method to Use?
Project Procedural
Documentation
Rigid
Policies/
Procedures
Avoidance
Transfer
Reduction
Assumption
Guidelines
High
Low
Tolerance for Risk
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
17
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The Risk-Reward Matrix
High
Risk
Medium
Low
Low
Medium
High
Reward
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Interacting Risks
Specification Limit
on Characteristic B
Product Feature A
Desirable
Undesirable
Undesirable
Product Feature B
Desirable
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
18
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Risk Planning
Performance
Poor Risk Management
Technical
Inability
Time
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Need for Risk Management
• To create an understanding of the potential risks
and their effects
• To provide an early warning system when the
risk event is imminent
• To provide clear guidance on how to contain the
risk event, if possible
• To restore the system after the risk event occurs
• To provide a means for escape and rescue
should all mitigation attempts fail
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
19
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Perfect Planning
DANGER
HAZARDS
LOSSES AND
DAMAGES
CONTINGENCY
PLANS AND
MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Imperfect Planning
DANGER
HAZARDS
LOSSES AND
DAMAGES
CONTINGENCY
PLANS AND
MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Investment in Risk Management
High
Potential
for Financial
Disaster
Parity
$ Invested
in Risk
Management
Potential
for Project
Failure
Low
Low
Hazards
High
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Scope Risks
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
21
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Scope Risks
OPTIMISTIC
APPROACH
UNCLEAR
REQUIREMENTS
IMPROPER
INTERPRETATION
ALLOWING
INTERNAL
ALLOWING EXTERNAL
CHANGES
CHANGES
PROCESS
NOT USED
NO CHANGE
PROCESS
CONCURRENT
ENGINEERING
SCOPE
REDUCTION
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Accepting Unclear Requirements
UNCLEAR
REQUIREMENTS
• Provide statement of
work checklists to
customers.
• Rewrite in your own
terminology and get
customer approval.
• Early on interface
meetings with the
customer.
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Misinterpretation of Requirements
IMPROPER
INTERPRETATION
• Request clarification
from the customer.
• Make effective use of
your subject matter
experts.
• Provide education and
training on writing/
interpreting the
statement of work.
Highly Optimistic Technical
Approach
OPTIMISTIC
APPROACH
• Implement technical
risk management.
• Understand the
customer’s definition
of success and your
definition of success.
• Maintain control over
value-added ideas.
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Allowing Your Team to Make
Unnecessary Changes
INTERNAL
CHANGES
• Emphasize the
customer’s objectives
to the team (both
technical and
business).
• Discourage going off
on tangents.
• Maintain control over
value-added ideas.
Allowing Unnecessary CustomerGenerated Changes to Occur
EXTERNAL
CHANGES
• Verify the contract
wording concerning
scope changes.
• Determine the impact
on the constraints.
• Evaluate the use of
some enhancement
projects to be
accomplished later.
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Improper Use of Concurrent
Engineering
CONCURRENT
ENGINEERING
• Explain the risks to
the customer with
overlapping work.
• Be conservative when
overlapping activities.
• Using committee
sponsorship may be
necessary.
Having No Change Control
Process
NO CHANGE
PROCESS
• Establish a structured
configuration
management plan.
• Explain the plan to
the customer.
• Make sure that the
configuration
management plan is
part of the contract.
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Not Using the Change Control
Process
PROCESS
NOT USED
• Force compliance to
the change control
process.
• Identify change
control stakeholders
and their roles.
• Evaluate continuous
changes versus using
some enhancement.
projects
Avoid Scope Reductions to
Lower Cost
SCOPE
REDUCTION
• Avoid highly
optimistic technical
approach.
• Avoid highly
optimistic scheduling.
• Try to avoid costscope trade-offs.
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Drivers on Scope
Improper use of concurrent
engineering
Highly optimistic technical
approach
Cost Risks
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Cost Risks
LABOR
ESCALATION
MATERIAL
ESCALATION
OVERHEAD
ESCALATION
NO
HISTORY
OVEROPTIMISM
PENALTY
CLAUSES
SCOPE
CHANGES
BUY-INS
MANAGEMENT
RESERVE
Escalating Labor Rates
ESCALATING
LABOR
• Use forward pricing
rates.
• Use industry surveys
and union surveys.
• Review past history
• Accurately define the
required skill levels for
the activities.
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Escalating Overhead Rates
ESCALATING
OVERHEAD
• Use forward pricing
rates.
• Look at the business
base over the life of
the project (new
versus old business).
• Review past history
• Consider using a
management reserve.
Escalating Material Costs
ESCALATING
MATERIALS
• Use forward pricing
rates.
• Use industry surveys
and union surveys.
• Review past history.
• Consider using a
management reserve.
• Maintain primary and
secondary sources (i.e.,
backup).
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No Data Base Or Prior History
NO
HISTORY
• Establish lessonslearned files.
• Frequent or weekly
analysis of costs.
• Make effective use of
the intranet.
• Maintain continuous
communications with
the team and line
management.
High Risk Penalty Clauses
PENALTY
CLAUSES
• Explain penalty
clauses to the team at
the kickoff meeting.
• Continuously remind
the team of penalties.
• Understand the risks
during negotiations.
• Penalty clauses
require more detailed
scheduling.
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Management Buy-Ins
A management buy-in (MBI) is a
corporate action in which an
outside manager or
management team purchases a
controlling ownership stake in
an outside company and
replaces its existing
management team. This type of
action can occur when a
company appears to
be undervalued, poorly
managed, or requires
succession.
• Avoid, avoid, and
avoid.
• Document buy-ins.
• Understand the risks
during negotiations.
• Prepare contingency
plans and tradeoffs.
• May be necessary to
perform scope—cost
trade-offs.
Overoptimistic Estimating
OPTIMISTIC
ESTIMATING
• Know basis for optimism.
• Develop management
reserves.
• Understand the risks.
• Closely monitor the work
and progress.
• Be prepared for tradeoffs, perhaps
continuously.
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High-Impact Scope Changes
SCOPE
CHANGES
• Follow configuration
management
protocols.
• Evaluate future
enhancements versus
continuous
improvement.
• Need proper
evaluation of valueadded changes.
Improper Use of
Management Reserve
MANAGEMENT
RESERVE
• Limit size of the
management reserve.
• Make sure the size of
the reserve is proper
for the risks expected.
• Do not use the reserve
for scope changes.
• The management
reserve should not be
applied to all projects.
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Driver on Cost
Too many scope changes
Scheduling Risks
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Scheduling Risks
WRONG
ESTIMATES
ROLLING WAVE
PLANNING
NO RISK
MANAGEMENT
UNAVAILABLE
RESOURCES
UNLIMITED
RESOURCES
WRONG
RESOURCES
SCOPE
CHANGES
CHANGING
PERSONNEL
EXTERNAL
DEPENDENCIES
Using Wrong Estimates
WRONG
ESTIMATES
• Use your subject
matter experts.
• Develop history and
lessons-learned files.
• Be prepared for
reassessment during
execution.
• Admit when wrong
and be willing to
update estimates.
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Estimating without Considering Risks
and Uncertainty
NO RISK
ANALYSIS
• Must review past
history.
• Must use subject
matter experts
correctly.
• Must evaluate schedule
risks.
• Make effective use of
templates and the
project office.
Using Rolling Wave Planning
Incorrectly
ROLLING WAVE
PLANNING
• Must reevaluate time
to complete.
• Must be prepared for
tradeoffs, possibly on
a continuous basis.
• Must respond rapidly
to problems.
• Senior management
must understand the
rolling wave concept
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Resources Are Not Available
UNAVAILABLE
RESOURCES
• Must have good
communications with
line managers.
• Changing priorities
may be necessary.
• Need strong project
sponsorship.
• Company decisions
may override the
project decision.
Wrong Resources Assigned
WRONG
RESOURCES
• Must have a clear
definition of the
requirements and skill
levels needed.
• Must have functional
accountability for
meeting deliverables.
• Must monitor and
assess resources
frequently.
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Constantly Changing Personnel
CHANGING
PERSONNEL
• Carefully evaluate skill
set needed.
• May need to prioritize
work packages.
• Be prepared for
problems.
• Company fire-fighting
may over-ride the
best interest of the
project.
Assuming Unlimited Resources
UNLIMITED
RESOURCES
• Avoid unlimited
resource planning.
• Negotiate for
deliverables, not
people.
• Establish firm
deliverables and dates.
• Consider use of rolling
wave planning.
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Unnecessary Scope Changes
SCOPE
CHANGES
• Must control changes
using the change
control process.
• Evaluate the proposed
change’s impact on
the schedule.
• Reassess the
scheduling risk.
Too Many External Dependencies
EXTERNAL
DEPENDENCIES
• Avoid when possible.
• Try to minimize the
risk impact on the
schedule.
• Closely monitor the
contractor’s
performance.
• Consider the use of
penalty clauses.
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Driver on Schedule
Improper or inadequate use of
risk management
Quality Risks
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Quality Risks
MISSING
SPECS
CHANGING
SPECS
UNCLEAR
SPECS
CUSTOMER
INVOLVEMENT
MISMATCHING
CHANGING
OBJECTIVES
LACK OF
REVIEWS
UNPROVEN
TECHNOLOGY
ONBOARD
LATE
Missing Specifications
MISSING
SPECS
• Carefully review
requirements.
• Use your subject
matter experts.
• Carefully evaluate
impact of missing data
before proceeding.
• Inform the customer
of the risks.
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Unclear Specifications
UNCLEAR
SPECS
• Use your subject
matter experts for
assessment.
• Don’t be afraid to ask
for clarification.
• Inform customer of
the risks.
• Continuous feedback
to the customer is
mandatory.
Changing Specifications
CHANGING
SPECS
• Evaluate risk impact
on time, cost, and
scope.
• Involve the customer
quickly
• Be willing to terminate
and start over.
• Expect this to happen
on long-term projects.
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Lack of Customer Involvement
CUSTOMER
INVOLVEMENT
• Must keep the
customer involved
right from the onset
of the effort.
• Invite the customer to
participate in
meetings/decisions.
• Invite the customer to
participate in risk
management.
Changing Objectives
CHANGING
OBJECTIVES
• Avoid if possible.
• Must reassess
potential impact
quickly.
• Must be willing to
replan.
• The business may
dictate changing
objectives, especially
with time-to-market.
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Use of Unproven Technology
UNPROVEN
TECHNOLOGY
• Avoid if possible.
• Must be willing to
reassess impact on
constraints and
objectives.
• Must be willing to reevaluate risks on a
continuous basis.
• Profitability may be
worth the risk.
Mismatching of
Requirements and Needs
MISMATCHING
• Use your subject
matter experts.
• Must have continuous
reviews with the
customer.
• Must have a willingness to accept
necessary changes.
• Must have a rapid
response team.
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Lack of Quality Personnel
Involvement at Gate Reviews
LACK OF
REVIEWS
• Quality personnel
must participate in
gate reviews.
• Bring the quality
personnel on board
early.
• Quality personnel
must participate in
risk assessment.
Quality Personnel Brought
Onboard Too Late
ONBOARD
LATE
• Quality personnel must
be part of the planning
process.
• On quality, overmanagement is better
than undermanagement.
• Must look at costbenefit of when to bring
quality personnel on
board.
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Driver on Quality
Lack of customer involvement
Management Risks
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Management Risks
UNCLEAR
OBJECTIVES
CHANGING
PRIORITIES
INSUFFICIENT
RESOURCES
NO PROJECT
CHARTER
LACK OF
INFORMATION
MICROMANAGEMENT
ORGANIZATIONAL
INSTABILITY
SCOPE
CHANGES
UNRESPONSIVE
MANAGEMENT
Accepting Unclear Objectives
UNCLEAR
OBJECTIVES
• Need both business
and functional
components.
• Involve sponsor early
• Ask for clarification
from the customer.
• Use a template or
checklist for the
characteristics of the
objectives.
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Insufficient Resources Exist
INSUFFICIENT
RESOURCES
• Request prioritization
of projects.
• Be willing to develop
and also update
contingency plans
regularly.
• Involvement of the
sponsor is necessary
• Scope reduction may
be necessary.
Changing Priorities Likely
CHANGING
PRIORITIES
• Develop and also
implement the
contingency plans.
• Sponsorship support
may be necessary.
• Must have a rapid
response team.
• Must have a
cooperative culture.
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No Project Charter
NO
PROJECT
CHARTER
• Must use assumed or
implied authority.
• Education of sponsor
may be necessary.
• Compare formal
versus informal
project management
approach.
• Have a detailed
management plan.
Allowing Micromanagement
to Occur
Micromanagement is a
negative term that refers to
a management style
characterized by extremely
close supervision and
control of the minor details
of an individual’s workload
and output.
• Ask for documented
role clarification.
• Adhere to the
methodology, if
available.
• Limit information flow
if necessary.
• Be sure that
micromanagement is
unnecessary.
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The Scope Change Policy
SCOPE
CHANGES
• Prepare and also
document the impact
analysis study of the
scope change.
• Adhere to the
configuration
management plan.
• Use risk management.
• Have a good
methodology.
Lack of Information
LACK OF
INFORMATION
• Prepare for
continuous impact
analysis.
• Develop a risk
management plan.
• Use the risk
management plan.
• Rolling wave planning
may be necessary.
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Organizational Instability
ORGANIZATIONAL
INSTABILITY
• Seek executive buy-in
from the start.
• Seek out strong
project sponsorship.
• May be necessary to
use formal project
management.
• A well-structured
methodology is
mandatory.
Unresponsive Management
UNRESPONSIVE
MANAGEMENT
• Formalized documentation and audit trail.
• Carbon copy to other
executives.
• “Forced” decisionmaking may be
necessary.
• Be willing to make
decisions yourself.
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Drivers on Management
Unclear objectives
Unresponsive management
Excerpted from Project Management 12E
by Harold Kerzner. Copyright 2017 by John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
51