144
Article
Recent Developments in Geographic
Profiling
D. Kim Rossmo
This article outlines operational developments in geographic profiling in the last decade, focusing on
police use and training and the exploration of new applications. A brief summary of environmental criminology, the
theoretical foundation of geographic profiling, is first provided. The establishment of the geographic profiling analysis
training program for property crime is then discussed. This is followed by a review of new applications of the
methodology in border security, military counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, and geo-historical analysis.
Research on the use of geographic profiling in biology, zoology, and epidemiology is next discussed. Finally, potential
future developments are examined.
Abstract
Geographic profiling is a criminal investigative
methodology that analyses the locations of a connected series of crime to determine the most probable area of offender residence (Rossmo, 2000). Its
primary purpose is to help police manage information through suspect prioritization. The technique
has now expanded to a number of other disciplines
as the ability to determine the geographic origin of a
series of events has utility in fields other than criminal investigation.
A profile cannot prove an offender’s guilt—only
a witness, confession, or physical evidence can do
that (Klockars and Mastrofski, 1991). However,
police detectives must find the offender before
they can prove his or her guilt. The role of a geographic profile is to help prioritize suspects
identified in the ‘finding’ stage of a criminal investigation. It is not unusual for serial crime cases to
involve hundreds, even thousands of suspects.
Given the ubiquity of address-based information
in police files and public records, geographic profiling is a useful tool in the investigation of serial
crime.
Environmental criminology
Geographic profiling is based on the ideas and principles of environmental criminology. The main
interest of traditional criminology has been the offender, a focus which typically has ignored the
crime setting, the ‘where and when’ of the criminal
act. While there has been some interest in how
geography influences crime, including the pioneering cartographic studies of Guerry and Quetelet
and the ecological research of the Chicago School,
it was not until the development of environmental
criminology, and its shift from offender to criminal
D. Kim Rossmo, Department of Criminal Justice, Texas State University. Email: krossmo@txstate.edu
Advance Access publication: 9 January 2012
Policing, Volume 6, Number 2, pp. 144–150
doi:10.1093/police/par055
ß The Authors 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
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Introduction
Recent Developments in Geographic Profiling
The geographic profiling analysis
training program for property
crime
Geographic profiling has turned out to be a surprisingly robust and versatile methodology. Originally
developed for analyzing serial murder cases, it was
soon applied to rape, sexual assault, arson, robbery,
and bombing investigations. In recent years, the
technique has also been used on several other
types of crimes, including kidnapping, burglary,
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auto theft, fraud, vandalism, and graffiti. Some of
the most interesting applications have been of
non-criminal spatial data, either in support of a
police investigation or for research purposes: payphones in a murder case, cellular telephone switch
towers in kidnapping cases, store purchases of
bomb components, credit card purchases or bank
ATM withdrawals in rape cases, postcards and
notes left on the street in sedition cases, even the
routine activities of students.
In the late 1990s, the National Law Enforcement
and Corrections Technology Center-Southeast
Region (NLECTC-SE) wanted to expand the use
of geographic profiling to property crime investigations (Rossmo and Velarde, 2008). Working
with the Vancouver Police Department, the
NLECTC-SE developed a 2-week program for
crime analysts and detectives as part of a technology
demonstration program first introduced in 2001
(Laverty and MacLaren, 2002). Called Geographic
Profiling Analysis (GPA), the 2-week course
included classroom lectures and exercises, and
field evaluation and mentorship. The program
was redesigned by Texas State University in 2004.
GPA training is now available through various universities and police agencies internationally, including the Jill Dando Institute in London.
The GPA curriculum consists of two 1-week
courses.
Week One, The Geography of Crime, is an
overview of environmental criminology, the
geography of crime, offence linkage, spatial–
temporal crime patterns, and geographic profiling for property crime. The primary purpose
of this week is to familiarize students with theoretical concepts, the nature of crime patterns,
and the challenges of serial crime investigation.
The content is designed to be a general overview of everything a police investigator or
crime analyst should know about environmental criminology.
Week Two, Rigel Analyst, covers the use of
the software, preparing a geographic profile,
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event, that a full appreciation of the importance of
place was realized.
Environmental criminology is interested in the
interactions between people and their surroundings, and views crime as the product of offenders
and their setting (Brantingham and Brantingham,
1981, 1984). Research in this field has taken a multidisciplinary approach—involving operational, perceptual, behavioural, social, psychological, legal,
cultural, and geographic perspectives—to examining the micro, meso, and macrolevels of crime.
The main environmental criminology theories
underlying geographic profiling—crime pattern
(Brantingham and Brantingham, 1993), routine activity (Felson, 2002), and rational choice (Clarke
and Felson, 1993)—provide a basis for understanding the target patterns and hunting behaviour of
criminal predators through the microlevel dimensions of offender, victim, crime, and environment.
By concentrating on the spatial and temporal
patterns of crime, environmental criminologists
are able to produce research with near-term practical utility. Not only are space and time easily measured and quantified, but they also define
parameters within which police, urban planners,
and crime prevention practitioners operate. This
is the domain of geographic profiling, crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED),
problem-oriented policing, situational crime prevention, and much of the work of crime scientists
at the Jill Dando Institute, University College
London.
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casework exercises, suggested strategies, and
report preparation. The primary purpose
of this week is to introduce students to the
experience and mechanics of preparing geographic profiles for property crime. The content is specifically designed for individuals who
will be involved in geographic profiling duties.
New applications
Geographic profiling has found new applications in
the military, intelligence, and homeland security
fields, as well as in historic cold case investigations.
As has been observed with criminal offenders, insurgents, terrorists, and enemy combatants often
exhibit consistent patterns of spatial behaviour.
The specific nature of their actions and the proper
understanding of a geographic profile within the
context of their operations, however, may require
domain-specific interpretations. Consequently, it is
important to work with subject matter experts and
field practitioners when conducting studies on new
applications.
Border security
While geographic profiling is usually thought of as
a method for determining the most likely location
of an offender’s home or base of operations, it can
also be used to analyse movements through constricted areas along international borders. Border
control is a crucial component of national security;
however, the length of land borders and coastlines
in many countries poses significant security challenges. Illegal workers, drug couriers, foreign terrorists, smugglers, fugitives, and other criminals
benefit from the porous nature of most national
boundaries. Analysing 254,717 illegal entry events,
Rossmo et al. (2008) identified physical and human
geographic features that influenced the probability
of illegal crossings through the Del Rio sector of the
Texas–Mexico border. Knowledge of the geographic patterns of illegal migration can help border
patrol agencies optimize resource allocation strategies and anticipate offender reactions to enforcement efforts.
Military counterinsurgency
Research on insurgency attacks in Iraq has identified underlying spatial and temporal patterns
(Johnson and Braithwaite, 2009; Townsley et al.,
2008). These incidents are quasi-criminal in
nature and traditional military responses are not
appropriate because of the civilian nature of
the surrounding population. They therefore
require intelligence analysis and an investigative
response. Geographic profiling is now being used
by coalition forces to help analysts determine the
most probable locations of enemy bases (Brown
et al., 2005). For example, urban and countryside
insurgency problems in Iraq and Afghanistan include attacks from improvised explosive devices
(IEDs), vehicle bombs, land mines, rocketpropelled grenades (RPGs), mortars, and snipers.
Insurgents typically obtain their heavier armaments
and munitions from supply centres—homes,
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Police officers and crime analysts are usually on
their own after completing a training course.
Unfortunately, classroom exercises can never fully
prepare students for all possible operational realities. The GPA course addresses this problem by
providing ongoing instructor mentorship, certification based on actual police agency casework, and a
network of geographic profiling analysts to facilitate information sharing and case consultation.
In turn, the feedback received regarding field
experiences and operational issues can then be
incorporated into future course content. Not surprisingly, given the relative frequency of property to
violent crime, the demand for GPA training is
the fastest growing area of geographic profiling.
Over 600 people, representing 264 agencies from
14 countries, including Australia, Canada,
England, Korea, The Netherlands, South Africa,
Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, and the
USA, have now been trained in geographic profiling
analysis.
D. K. Rossmo
Recent Developments in Geographic Profiling
Counterterrorism
Terrorism is a covert threat, and important patterns can be lost in the large volume of data collected by counterterrorism and intelligence
agencies. Geographic prioritization models can be
used to prioritize suspects, tips, and leads. While it
has seemed to some that terrorists, with transnational structures and decentralized networks,
lack a geographic structure, it turns out this is not
the case. It is possible to discover significant patterns in terrorist activity by analyzing geospatial
intelligence on terrorist incidents, according to
the Director of National Intelligence Open Source
Center (Federation of American Scientists, 2009).
Many minor terrorist actions are ordinary crimes,
such as robbery, theft, and credit card fraud (Jordan
and Horsburgh, 2005). Even major terrorist attacks,
often chose for symbolism (Drake, 1998), require
the establishment of terrorist cells in the area of
operation. In both cases, a geographic relationship
exists, whether it is the target determining the locations of the terrorist cell sites, or the terrorist cell
sites determining the location of the target.
Using environmental criminology theories and
geographic profiling concepts, Rossmo and
Harries (2011) analysed the geospatial patterns of
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urban terrorist cells in Turkey. They collected spatial data on 38 terrorism cases involving 206 target
sites and 215 cell sites from police investigation
files, mapped these locations, and measured the
distances from cell sites to incident sites and the
distances between cell sites. The resulting probability distributions provide the basis for the development of a geospatial model for intelligence
management.
Geo-historical analysis
Geographic profiles have now been prepared for a
number of unsolved historical crimes, including
Jack the Ripper, 1888 (Rossmo, 2000), the Austin
Axe Murderer, 1884–1885 (Rossmo, 2006), the
Zodiac Killer, 1968–1969, and the Sacramento
East Area Rapist, 1976–1986 (Crompton, 2010).
Such cases involve substantial historic research beyond the usual investigative analysis. In addition
to the challenges of obtaining old police files and accurate crime information, maps and demographic
information from the relevant time periods have to
be located, timelines for key places such as schools
or military bases investigated, and an understanding of existing social conditions obtained. For
example, the housing conditions of urban blacks
in post-Civil War Texas in the Austin Axe
Murderer case, the poverty of Whitechapel in the
Jack the Ripper case, and the 1960s culture of
California in the Zodiac case are all important
geo-historic factors. The development of these
methods inform more than academic curiosity.
With advancements in DNA technology, some of
the more recent of these historical cases are now
being actively re-investigated using geoprofiling as
part of the suspect prioritization process.
Biology, zoology, and
epidemiology
The original development of geographic profiling
was informed by animal foraging models and point
pattern analysis, the latter first developed to study
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mosques, warehouses, and various other buildings.
These centres serve as the equivalent of bases and
can be geographically profiled, using the locations
of the attacks as the equivalent of crime sites.
Geographic profiling provides the military a
semi-automated means to predict insurgents’
behaviour and actions. Further, it offers an
increased level of analysis through a mathematical
calculation that predicts insurgent activity areas
and bases of operation. This capability can assist
deployed military forces by focusing intelligence
collection efforts and directing arms resources to
insurgent bases in order to disrupt future attacks
(Grau, 2004). Other potential military applications
that are being researched include battlefield analysis, piracy interdiction, optimal search strategies
for missing sea vessels, and war crime investigation.
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Article
which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. Six of these sites were ranked in the top six
positions, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. They
conclude geographic profiling could play a useful
role in integrated control strategies relating to a
wide variety of infectious diseases (see, also,
Buscema et al., 2009).
Finally, geographic profiling has been used to
identify source populations of invasive species
from their current locations (Stevenson et al.,
in press). The technique was tested on historical
data from the Biological Records Centre for 53 invasive species in Great Britain, ranging from marine
invertebrates to woody trees, in a wide variety of
habitats. The accuracy of the results indicates geographic profiling might be used to help target control measures.
Biological applications of geographic profiling
could ultimately prove to have benefits for police
agencies and homeland security. Research on locating sources of epidemics or invasive species using
geoprofiling models may eventually be translated
into analytic methods for identifying the origin of
bioterrorism attacks. This capability is important
for both public safety and police investigative
functions.
Future developments
There are three promising areas of research that
may lead to future improvements in geographic
profiling and crime detection. The first is the incorporation of areal analysis into the point pattern
analysis employed in geographic profiling. Johnson
(1999) explored the relationship between the
geo-demographic characteristics of the location
where a stranger rapist lived and where he offended.
This work was later expanded upon by incorporating different geo-demographic systems and distance analyses (Rossmo et al., 2004). Levine and
Block (2011) are developing a Bayesian approach
that integrates historic offender residence data
with journey-to-crime estimations. Unfortunately,
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patterns of plant locations. In an interesting turnabout, biologists and zoologists are now applying
geographic profiling to research on foraging
models, animal predation, and disease spread.
Le Comber et al. (2006) used geographic profiling models to quantitatively describe foraging patterns of two sympatric colonies of pipistrelle bats in
Scotland. They found the variables of models fitted
to known roost locations could be used to differentiate foraging patterns between the two species.
A similar study, conducted in the laboratory at
Queen Mary College, University of London, combined computer model simulations and experimental observation of foraging bumblebees to
demonstrate how geographic profiling can be
used to discriminate spatial search patterns resulting from varying flower densities and different foraging algorithms (Raine et al., 2009).
Martin et al. (2009) applied geographic profiling
to location data from 340 predatory interactions
between white sharks and Cape fur seals near Seal
Island in False Bay, South Africa, to investigate spatial patterns of shark attack and search behaviour.
They found sharks appear to have a well-defined
search base and their spatial patterns of predation
were non-random. Interestingly, this location was
not where seal predation risk was highest; instead,
it most likely represents an optimal balance among
prey detection, capture rates, and competition.
Smaller sharks had more dispersed prey search patterns and lower predatory success rates than larger
sharks, suggesting either a refinement of hunting
strategies with experience or competitive exclusion
of smaller sharks from the best hunting areas.
Geographic profiling has also been used in epidemiology research to locate origins of infectious
disease. Le Comber et al. (2011) examined the sites
of 321 cholera deaths from the 1854 outbreak in
Soho, London. The Broad Street pump, the
source of the contamination, ranked first among
13 local water pumps, and was situated in the top
0.2% of the geoprofile. They also analysed 139
reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, and
ranked 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, 7 of
Recent Developments in Geographic Profiling
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to date has been the use of geospatial analyses to
refine the calculation of familial DNA probabilities.
Conclusion
Analysing and understanding crime patterns
has significant potential for improved policing,
criminal investigation, crime prevention, and
public safety. The expansion of geographic profiling demonstrates the reach and power of the environmental criminology approach. It also illustrates
the value of crime science, with its multidisciplinary
and scientific focus on reducing crime through new
techniques of prevention and detection.
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