Chapter 1 Investments: Background and Issues Bodie, Kane, and Marcus Essentials of Investments 12th Edition Introduction • What is an investment? Commitment of current resources in the expectation of deriving greater resources in the future • You are making an investment taking this class: the current time you spend and the cost you commit for the expectation of a higher salary job in the future Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 2 1.1 Real versus Financial Assets • Real assets • Assets used to produce goods and services. • Financial assets • Claims on real assets or the income generated by them. • Financial assets simply define the allocation of wealth among investors Financial Assets: Claims on Real Assets or Real Asset Income Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. Real Assets Productive Capacity Property, plants and equipment, human capital, etc. 3 Table 1.1 Balance Sheet, U.S. Households, 2019 Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 4 1.1 Financial Assets = Financial Liabilities • Financial Assets and Liabilities must balance Financial Assets (Owner of the claim) Financial Liability (Issues of the Claim) • Aggregated balance sheets only real assets remain • Domestic Net Worth = Sum of real assets Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 5 Table 1.2 Domestic Net Worth, 2019 Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 6 1.2 Broad Types of Financial Assets • Fixed-income (debt) securities • Pay a specified cash flow over a specific period • Equity • An ownership share in a corporation • Derivative securities • Securities providing payoffs that depend on the values of other assets Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 7 1.2 Broad Types of Financial Assets Common Stock Ownership stake in entity, residual cash flow Asset Classes Derivative Securities Contract, value derived from underlying market condition Since equity is tied more closely to a firm’s real assets, it is considered more risky than bonds Fixed Income Securities Money market instruments, Bonds, Preferred stock Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 8 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • Informational Role of Financial Markets • Capital flow to companies with best prospects • Market Price = Fair Value? (Not Always) • Do markets allocate capital to best uses? • Other mechanisms to allocate capital? • Advantages/disadvantages of other systems? Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 9 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • Consumption Timing • Use securities to store wealth • Transfer consumption to the future Dollars • Consumption smoothed over time Consumption Surplus Deficit Deficit Income Age Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 10 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • Risk Allocation • Investors select desired risk level • Bond vs. company stock vs. cash Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 11 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • Separation of Ownership and Management • Large firms require separation between principals & agents • Separation Agency Problems • Ways to reduce Agency Problems: • Performance-based compensation • Boards of directors may fire managers • Threat of takeovers Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 12 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 13 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • An agency problem example: • In February 2008, Microsoft offered to buy Yahoo at $31 per share when Yahoo was trading at $19.18 • Yahoo rejected the offer, holding out for $37 a share • Proxy fight to seize control of Yahoo's board and force Yahoo to accept offer • Proxy failed; Yahoo stock fell from $29 to $21 • Did Yahoo managers act in the best interests of their shareholders? Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 14 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • Corporate Governance and Corporate Ethics • Businesses and markets require trust to operate efficiently • No trust additional costly laws and regulations • Governance and ethics failures cost the economy Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 15 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • Corporate Governance and Corporate Ethics • Accounting scandals • Enron, WorldCom, Rite-Aid, HealthSouth, Global Crossing, Qwest • Misleading research reports • Citicorp, Merrill Lynch, others • Auditors: Watchdogs or consultants? • Arthur Andersen and Enron Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 16 1.3 Financial Markets and the Economy • Corporate Governance and Corporate Ethics • The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) passed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX): • Requires more independent directors • Requires CFO personally verifies the financial statements • Created new oversight board for the accounting/audit industry • Charged board to maintaining a culture of high ethical standards Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 17 1.4 The Investment Process: Asset Allocation • Asset Allocation • Allocation of an investment portfolio across broad asset classes. • Primary determinant of a portfolio's return • Percentage of fund in asset classes, for example: 10% 30% 60% Equity 25% 25% Bonds Bills 50% • Top Down Investment Strategies start with Asset Allocation Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 18 1.4 The Investment Process: Security Selection • Security Selection • Choice of particular securities within asset class • Security Analysis • Analysis of the value of securities • Bottom up Investment strategies starts with Security Selection Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 19 1.5 Markets Are Competitive • Risk-Return Trade-Off • Higher expected returns Higher risk • Stock portfolios lose money an average of 25% • Bonds • Lower average rates of return (under 6%) • Not lost more than 13% of value in any one year Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 20 1.5 Markets Are Competitive • Risk-Return Trade-Off • How do we measure risk? • How does diversification affect risk? Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 21 1.5 Markets Are Competitive • Efficient Markets: Prices reflect all information available to investors • Passive management • Buying and holding a diversified portfolio • No attempt to identify mispriced securities • Active management • Identify mispriced securities of forecast broad market trends Your Belief in Market Efficiency Choice of InvestmentManagement Style Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 22 1.5 Markets Are Competitive Markets are… Security Selection: Asset Allocation Active Management Passive Management Inefficient Efficient Actively Seeking Undervalued Stocks No Attempt to Find Undervalued Securities Market Timing No Attempt to Time Market Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 23 1.6 The Players • Business Firms (net borrowers): Raise capital now to pay for investments • Households (net savers): Purchase securities issued by firms • Governments (can be both borrowers and savers) • Financial Intermediaries (connecting borrowers & lenders) • • • • • Commercial banks Investment companies Insurance companies Pension funds Hedge funds Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 24 1.6 The Players • Investment Bankers • Entities that specialize in primary market transactions • Primary market • Newly issued securities (with the help of investment banks) offered to public • Investment banker “underwrites” issue • Secondary market • Preexisting securities traded among investors (Example: Stock Exchanges) Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 25 Table 1.3 Balance Sheet of Commercial Banks, 2019 Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 26 Table 1.4 Balance Sheet of Nonfinancial U.S. Business, 2019 Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 27 1.6 The Players • Venture Capital and Private Equity • Venture capital • Equity Investment to finance new firm • Private equity • Investments in privately-held companies • Fintech and Financial Innovation • Application of technology to financial markets • Ex: cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 28 1.7 The Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 Changes in Housing Finance Old Way New Way • Local bank institution made mortgage loans to homeowners • A bank possessed a portfolio of long-term mortgage loans • Bank’s main liability: Deposits • “Originate to hold” • Securitization: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bought mortgage loans, bundled them into large pools • Mortgage-backed securities are tradable claims against the underlying mortgage pool • “Originate to distribute” Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 29 1.7 Changes in Housing Finance • Securitization • Pooling loans into standardized securities back by loans • Can be traded like any other security Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 30 1.7 The Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 • Mortgage Derivatives • Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO): Consolidated default risk of loans onto one class of investor, divided payment into tranches • Ratings agencies paid by issuers; pressured to give high ratings Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 31 1.8 The Outline • Part One: Introduction to Financial Markets, Securities, and Trading Methods • Part Two: Modern Portfolio Theory • Part Three: Debt Securities • Part Four: Equity Security Analysis • Part Five: Derivative Markets Copyright © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 32