For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking Michael Ross, Wilfrid Laurier University Sofy Carayannopoulos, Wilfrid Laurier University Matthew Donovan, Wilfrid Laurier University HBP# NA0671 On October 10th, 2018, Tim Hogarth, Vice President (VP) of Innovation Framework and Strategies at Toronto-Dominion Bank Group (TD) made his way down to the parking garage after the monthly meeting of the TD Innovation Council. The Innovation Council was a cross-functional group of senior leaders whose mandate was determining strategic innovation priorities for which Hogarth and his team would then recommend and develop solutions. Today’s meeting had focused on the “fintech” (financial technology) start-ups and technology giants entering financial services. They were getting between the banks and their customers, and some industry analysts speculated that the entrants had already made significant headway into attracting customers with services such as Apple Pay and Google Pay. Everyone on the Innovation Council agreed with the industry analysts: banks had to respond or they risked losing relevance and becoming a supporting actor in the background of financial services. Jeff Henderson, Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer to whom Hogarth reported, reminded everyone that chasing too many solutions at once was unwise. He wanted Hogarth to choose an activity to start with: should this be payments, wealth management or consumer finance/lending? Should TD focus on younger, newer customers or its established and higher-value customers? Henderson had added, “TD has invested a great deal in updating its technology infrastructure, so new additions can easily be integrated into our digital ecosystem, while also maintaining cyber security. We have the financial resources to invest whatever is needed to address this issue, but the long-term returns have to make sense.” As Hogarth pressed the button for the elevator, Henderson’s last words to him rang in his head, “Everything is moving so fast that we have to run hard to not fall behind. Please send me your proposal for our digital strategy by next week. We have roll out within six months and re-evaluate and adjust in nine.” INDUSTRY PROFILE The operations of banks in Canada could largely be divided into three business lines: (i) consumer/ business banking, (ii) wealth management, and (iii) investment banking and capital markets. Consumer banking provided services such as chequing, savings, loans, credit cards, and insurance to address the daily banking needs of individuals and ----------------------------- Copyright 2021 by the Case Research Journal and by Michael Ross, Sofy Carayannopoulos and Matthew Donovan. TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 1 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. businesses customers. Wealth management provided advice-based wealth and asset management services and wealth products such as mutual funds. Both of these business lines served a wide range of customers from children to high-net-worth individuals and from small businesses to large corporations. These were often referred to as “retail” or “commercial” lines. Investment banking provided companies, institutional investors and governments with products and services such as distribution of debt and equity issues, and advice on acquisition and divestitures. The “Big Five” banks (Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Bank of Montreal) held almost 90% of the industry's total assets1. Banks operating in Canada were regulated under the Bank Act to provide stability and protect consumer wealth and privacy. Regulatory requirements set a high bar and created entry barriers for potential newcomers. For example, new start-ups could not access the systems to process payments without having a bank partner. The process of opening a bank branch in Canada was also slow. For example, Silicon Valley Bank, a lender, applied in May 2017 to establish a branch in Canada, received an order from Canada’s Finance Minister authorizing a branch in March 2018, but was still subject to further approval from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Canada’s banking regulator. As Hogarth had pointed out at the Innovation Council, Our size and the banking regulations pose some challenges, but our stability and experience are also advantages. Safety and security are primary concerns for customers, and we have far more and valuable experience navigating the complex regulatory environment. Regulations still mean that new entrants have to meet standards that ensure customers aren’t exposed to unnecessary risk. A newcomer can’t simply access systems to process payments: they need banking partners like us. In the 1980s and 1990s, two significant events were the launch of ING Bank of Canada (Canada’s first notable branchless banking model) and the emergence of nonbank/alternative mortgage origination companies (e.g., Mortgage Central Nationwide). Since 2016, several new domestic Schedule I2 banks had begun operating in Canada. The newest entrants — Street Capital Bank of Canada, Uni Financial Cooperation, Wealth One Bank of Canada Inc., Exchange Bank of Canada and Concentra Bank — were either focusing on a particular niche or service or using technology to connect with customers online or on their mobile phones. For example, Wealth One was targeting the Chinese Canadian population with full Mandarin and Cantonese supported speakers. In 2017, there were 32 Schedule I banks in Canada. The most important components of competition in banking were price and range of service offerings. The keys to profitability were attracting and retaining customer relationships. This was achieved through exceptional service and convenience, and a diverse range of product and service offerings delivered through an array of distribution channels. Basic services such as paying for purchases and paying bills were provided at a low cost to attract customers. Inertia then made the bank the default choice for subsequent, higher margin products such as loans, insurance, investment products and advisory services. Mobile payment systems and other new offerings were additional revenue sources and offset low interest income. See Exhibit 1 for key statistics of the Canadian banking industry. 2 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. BANKING IN THE DIGITAL AGE The digital landscape in banking was changing rapidly driven by smartphone adoption, big data and artificial intelligence and predictive analytics. Adoption of smartphones in Canada was over 85 percent with rates of over 95 percent in the 44 and younger demographics, 87 percent in the 44 to 64 and roughly 60 percent in those older than 643. Switching banks had become easier over time, and new apps and online services were beginning to attract customers with convenience and lower fees. Analysts predicted that banks that didn’t use digital technologies to reduce costs by automating processes and improve customer experiences could miss opportunities to improve performance and see profits decline (see Exhibit 2). However, industry experts believed that the larger threat lay in disintermediation (see Exhibit 3 for Digital Effects on Performance). Banks served as intermediaries – they were a conduit for transactions between buyers and sellers or consumers to other consumers. Fintechs were intervening between banks and consumers with services offered through new technologies. They offered loans, mortgages, deposits, currency exchange and other basic banking services. While the fintechs still usually used the banks to fulfill the products they sold, the fintechs were interacting with the clients and thus meant they were disconnecting the banks from their customers. Aside from the lost revenue opportunities, the banks were losing two other valuable assets – data and relationships. The technology company that handled the transaction would scrub the customer data. The bank could see the transaction’s value but would not receive related information – data which was important in improving and personalizing customer service. Data analytics could identify and recommend a more economical way of handling a transaction or automating a recurring task such as monthly money transfers. It could also identify opportunities for cross-selling. If a bank noticed that a client was paying rent on a new property, the bank could offer its own renters’ insurance. Fees from and sales of other products such as insurance accounted for roughly 22 percent of bank’s return on equity compared to roughly six percent ROE for provision of credit4. New entrants were entering retail banking as stand-alone businesses, service partners and important elements of financial value chains, setting a higher bar for customer experience and eroding margins. Nutmeg, a UK investment provider, promised mass affluent customers that if they spent 10 minutes online answering questions about themselves and their goals, Nutmeg would build and manage an investment portfolio for them. This was a significant difference from the involved and in-person traditional wealth advisory services. Similarly, Kabbage partnered with Scotiabank in Canada. Kabbage created an online platform that allowed customers to quickly and easily apply for small business loans and used analytics of data sources like social media profiles and QuickBooks accounts to assess applications and respond in six minutes. Technology giants were also entering financial services, motivated by significant revenue opportunities. During the Innovation Council meeting, Hogarth pointed out that having some of the world’s leading technology firms providing financial services was as, if not more, worrisome than the smaller fintechs. In addition, non-technology firms were entering the industry with their own loans and credit cards. Walmart was offering micro-finance loans and Costco and other department stores were offering exclusive credit cards. (See Exhibit 4 for size of banking activities relative to technology companies). TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 3 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Many of these players had strong technology capabilities and large user bases. Google Pay and Apple Pay were just two of a plethora of digital wallets being developed by technology giants and some believed disruption had already occurred in payments. As Henderson stated during the meeting, Hogarth would have to prioritize which activity to focus. Should he focus on regaining ground on digital wallets even though the margins were small and there were already giants with expertise and large user bases like Google and Apple firmly established there? Should he cede this function and focus on wealth management or consumer finance that would have a large negative impact and was not yet a target for the giants? In addition to fintechs that provided components of a bank’s services, a 2018 report by KMPG5 noted that an increasing number of neobanks and challenger banks were being established. These firms offered lower fees and/or more perks compared to traditional banks due to the cost savings of being fully digital. Neobanks such as Monzo, Starling and Atom Bank were newer, completely digital mobile outfits that were focused on a completely new banking experience. A lot of the neobanking activity was being driven by open banking, a concept that allowed banks to securely and in real time share customer data with a third-party developer and “bolt” that developer’s capabilities onto their own. The implication was that it made it easier for customers to manage different services across different providers, but this also made it easier to switch providers. Challenger banks could be established firms or brand-new banks with licenses that sought to compete with larger institutions and weren’t burdened by legacy systems and cumbersome organizational structures such as major bank operations. Cyber security however was a substantial concern for purely digital players because all transactions and activities were conducted online. This risk was lower in traditional banks such as TD because they also offered in-person and physical evidence of transactions. Most challenger banks focused on niche products rather than the entire retail banking value chain which meant they also were less hampered by regulatory requirements and barriers. Customers could open a checking account or borrow money, but they had to go elsewhere for services such as credit cards or mortgages. They focused on the relatively small segment of customers that were comfortable executing all of their banking activities digitally. Most challenger and neobanks were in the United Kingdom, however, they were popping up worldwide. Some legacy firms such as JPMorgan were launching digital banks of their own, targeting younger customers and areas of the U.S. with a shortage of brick-and-mortar banks. CUSTOMER INFORMATION Banking customers ranged from children to retired seniors and across all income classes and investment needs and knowledge. They ranged in their preferences for faceto-face interactions versus comfort and preference for digital interfaces. The banking relationship usually began with the creation of a savings account with a small amount of money, often set up by parents. It evolved as the customer moved through various life stages and financial circumstances and financial activities changed. Younger customers, such as students, were just starting out on their independent lives and did not have large savings accounts or the need for many financial products, such as a mortgage. Viewed as the next large wave of banking customers, Millennials (those born between 1981-1996) and Generation Z (born 1997-2012) consumers were most willing to shop around to acquire financial products and to try digital innovation 4 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. from non-traditional providers. A 2015 study showed that one in five Millennials had switched their bank in the past year6. Older generations who were more established financially offered greater revenue opportunities for the banks. With stable incomes, savings and investments, and mortgages, middle-aged and older Canadians were able to use many more retail banking products. These consumers were much less open to switching services once established with a provider; only three percent of those 55 years and older switched primary banks each year6. Increasing technological adoption, in particular banking via smartphone, was one reason banking was shifting to digital. According to the Canadian Bankers Association7, 56 percent of Canadians had used online banking in 2019, with 76 percent using online and digital banking to conduct most of their banking. Adoption of digital banking was highest among Millennials and Generation Z but it was a trend that spanned all generations. Furthermore, Millennials were three times more likely to rely on mobile banking compared to Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964), and 36 percent of Millennials identified mobile apps as their leading banking method compared to 23 percent across all other demographic groups. Regardless of age and life stage, customers were increasingly expecting personalized, convenient services and were willing to switch banks to obtain it. (See Exhibit 5 for additional consumer information). Wealthsimple and Questrade were examples of two new online investment management services focused on making investing easier by providing low- and nocommission stock trading and managed portfolios at a fraction of the cost of banks’ mutual funds. Robo-advice was gaining traction among many consumers, and particularly among Millennials, which was why TD was developing and testing roboadvisor solutions. Quick and easy access to and assistance with buying a car or home was also a top consumer concern; however, fintechs had not yet meaningfully addressed this space in Canada. The Canadian federal government mandated that banks put borrowers through a rigorous financial stress test to be eligible for a mortgage. Fintech lenders typically entered the space by focusing on subprime loans8, since Canadian banks typically stayed away from these borrowers. At the same time, persuading customers to switch from their banks to a new fintech product for daily activities was not easy. It required persuading them to change ingrained, habitual behaviours. The online services banks already provided such as automatic bill payments tied people to their existing banks. Importantly, protection of their financial assets was the valued most by all demographics. Hogarth often reminded the Innovation Council that trust and reputation were still very important factors in influencing who customers used for financial services and would continue to be important even in the digital age. See Exhibit 5 for consumer interests. The 2016 CGI9 research report showed, trust was a significant factor driving consumer preference for their current institution rather than new, digital financial service providers. Twenty-four percent of consumers still preferred to use the branch and 86 percent of consumers including Millennials reported they would use their branches at some point in the future, attributable at least in part to the fact that speaking to a person was more trusted and was perceived to provide greater value than other channels10. TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 5 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. TORONTO-DOMINION BANK GROUP TD was founded in 1852 and headquartered in Toronto. TD was divided into three areas: Canadian retail, U.S. retail and Wholesale. It served over 25 million customers worldwide. In 2018 it had over 2400 retail locations and over 5100 ATMs in North America. TD’s market share in Canada was roughly 21 percent and it was ranked number one or two in market share for most retail products. It had top three investment dealer status in Canada and had roughly 38,800 employees in 2018. TD also offered a full range of financial products and services to over nine million customers in the United States. (See Exhibit 6 for details on TD’s operations). The third quarter results of 2018 showed that Canadian retail contributed roughly 60 percent of earnings. U.S. retail contributed 26 percent. Of the Canadian operations, roughly half of its total revenue was generated by personal banking, 13 percent by business banking, 18 percent wealth management and another 18 percent insurance. See Exhibit 7 for more details from TD’s 2017 annual report. TD had a wide range of retail customers and functions. At one end of the spectrum were governments and large corporations, at the other were young children opening their first bank account. In between there were high-net-worth individuals and institutions seeking wealth management services and small businesses who had varying needs. TD’s brand promise focused on enriching the lives of customers and making them more confident in their financial futures and financial decisions. TD espoused to be more than just a place to go for savings, payments and loans; it wanted to help customers achieve life goals that had financial implications, and help their customers make their financial and everyday lives better. The pillars of its brand promise were: (a) personal human experiences, (b) proactive advice and solutions, and (c) convenient, simple and timely interactions. Hogarth was proud that TD was viewed as an industry leader in customer service excellence. DIGITAL ACTIVITIES TD had over 12 million digital customers. It had a long history of being willing to push boundaries and be innovative to deliver customers digitally-enabled experiences. (See Exhibit 8 for an overview of digital strategy in 2018). In 1996, it established WebBroker, the first Internet brokerage service in Canada. Self-directed, online trading was also pioneered in the U.S. in the 1990s through TD Ameritrade. The continued improvement in online trading experience for self-directed investors made Ameritrade a leader in a booming industry. In 2011, the TD app was launched, allowing users to perform all mainstream banking activities such as viewing accounts and paying for bills on their mobile phones. It was named the number one Canadian mobile banking app by Silicon Valley’s App Annie. In 2015, TD formed an exclusive partnership with Flybits to build TD for Me into its TD app. This acted as a digital concierge and provided special offers and discounts at points of interest based on user interests and location. Similarly, TD formed an exclusive partnership with Moven to create TD MySpend, a companion to the TD app. TD MySpend tracked and categorized spending, compared it with the user’s past spending patterns and savings goals. It then notified users so that they could make informed spending decisions and improve spending habits in real time. One quarter of users were between the ages of 18 to 25 while 30 percent were between 25 and 35, and TD’s research had shown that users of this app spent 8 percent less than those that did 6 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. not. In 2017, TD introduced voice banking "skills" on Alexa (a Wi-Fi-based device that used voice commands to execute a wide variety of tasks). It was the first financial institution in Canada to offer Facebook Messenger and Twitter chatbots to give customers instant help on select general inquiries such as how to report a lost or stolen card. TD also formed an agreement with Kasisto, enabling customers to get instant answers about specific spending-related questions such as how much they spent on a recent trip, what their largest transaction was last week, or what they spent on categories like coffee last month. In 2018, TD acquired Layer 6, a leader in the use of machine learning, in order to enhance its capabilities in the delivery of responsive, personalized and insight-driven customer experiences. TD, like other banks, had also begun re-organizing internally around end-to-end customer journeys rather than product lines. Recognizing that homebuying made over 56 percent of Canadians anxious, TD collaborated with Flybits to create the Homeowers’ Journey. In 2018 it added a mortgage concierge to its TD app. Customers could calculate how much they could afford by inputting their financial information and then search active real estate listings that matched their budget and desired neighbourhood. They could also receive digital mortgage pre-approval and hold the rate for 120 days. Using geolocation technology, customers could quickly and easily connect with local mortgage specialists to receive advice as well as help with the home-buying process. PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF BANKING Henderson invested a great deal in updating the bank’s infrastructure and acquiring technology talent. As Henderson said, “To fuel our innovation, TD is in search of diverse skills and perspectives from a wide range of fields, including cyber.” Between 2014 to 2018 TD modernized its architecture, invested in application programming interfaces11 (API), and externalized those APIs so that outside organizations could develop programs and services that connected with TD technology. It was looking at proof of concepts in everything from virtual and augmented reality to blockchain, predictive technologies, and the Internet of things. Hogarth was hired in 2017 in large part because he had helped create the Australian Commonwealth Bank’s industryleading digital capabilities. His mandate at TD was to innovate TD’s digital activities so it could be a leader in the future of banking. Rather than viewing fintechs as a threat, Hogarth viewed them as opportunities for mutually beneficial collaborations. Hogarth was often heard making statements such as, “Partnering with fintechs enables us to harness their creativity and implement innovations faster while the fintechs benefit from our large customer base and brand reputation. It should be a win-win.” In May 2018, TD took part in a reverse pitch event at the Canadian Fintech 2.0 Summit. This event featured financial institution executives pitching fintechs on the merits of working with banks. An important component was the patents for start-ups program where TD provided the start-ups with the resources to navigate the patent filing process so that start-ups retained control over their innovations. The challenge was that innovation cycles were becoming shorter, meaning banks now had to respond quickly with tools that were changing quickly and outside of their core capabilities. Hogarth recognized that, in addition to choosing what business lines and customers to prioritize, he needed an execution strategy that could be deployed for this and future actions. TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 7 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. He recognized that while internal development ensured control, secrecy and good integration, the trial and error approach that was a norm in technology companies was an uncomfortable factor for banks; they could not risk errors with financial transactions that could diminish customer trust and create accounting errors. Although banks were a reliable and mature employer, technology was a supporting function rather than the identity of the organization. They were not the first option that came to mind for technology talent. Moreover, in-house IT projects at many financial firms were notorious for cost and time overruns. McKinsey Consulting estimated that “large IT projects run 45 percent over budget and 7 percent over time, while delivering 56 percent less value than predicted.”12 The other option was forming partnerships or acquisitions. Hogarth recognized that the rapid growth of the fintech ecosystem that was creating challenges also offered a wide range of small companies with which the bank could partner or could acquire for innovative solutions and quick access to new capabilities. TD had the financial capacity to pursue acquisitions and had successfully done so, but he recognized that this was not a sustainable strategy for innovation, both due to its cost and the need to manage new and unfamiliar technology activities and organizations. Partnerships with technology giants were also an option but this was a double-edged sword: the new ventures and giants could provide critical infrastructure and differentiating technologies, but the bank could not become so dependent on them that they could lose control in the long-run. Hogarth was actively involved with TD’s fintech outreach and partnership efforts, and he always made sure to set up online news alerts for firms that he was particularly interested in. He had his eye on a couple of promising companies and technologies. He wondered if it was time to take a closer look at some of them as part of his recommendation. Aislelabs was a Toronto-based company that used location tracking to provide marketing services and analytics for brick and mortar retailers. Typically, the intended use was for retailers to push coupons and advertisements to consumers’ phones as they walked by their store in a mall. Hogarth envisioned TD using this technology in a way that instead benefited the consumer. If someone set a budget for clothing in the TD MySpend app and they had already exceeded it for the month, then TD could use this technology to push a notification reminding them if they spent too long in a Banana Republic store. According to a 2018 report from consulting firm Oliver Wyman, nontraditional banking needs, such as helping consumers with smart spending, were features that were wanted by consumers and created customer loyalty and lock-in through habitual use but were under-delivered by banks13. Revolut was a British fintech that specialized in low-cost currency exchange and transfers, which made it popular in the multi-currency EU region. The firm was looking to expand to additional countries in the coming years, including Canada. Canadians had Interac E-transfers as a way of sending funds between Canadian bank accounts for low or no cost, depending on the bank; however, foreign currencies or accounts were not compatible. More than half of Asian, Black, and South American residents of Canada were first-generation immigrants, with the largest groups coming from China, India, Philippines, and Mexico14. Among Canadians born in Official Development Assistance countries (a Government of Canada designation for most low-to-middle income countries), 37 percent of these immigrants sent money back to their home country every year, at a transfer fee that ranged from two to 20 percent of the amount sent15. Low-cost currency conversions and transfers could be an attractive feature to offer to Canada’s growing immigrant population. 8 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. In the same immigrant-focused vein, Nova Credit was an American company that specialized in transferring credit history from foreign countries to the U.S. when someone moved. Accessing credit with no domestic history was a challenge, and Nova Credit would allow immigrants with no history in the U.S. to access credit cards and loans for which they would not normally be qualified. TD could become Nova Credit’s first non-American partner and allow new immigrants to qualify for TD credit cards, mortgages, and loans. Canada welcomed roughly 275,000 new immigrants each year. By using foreign credit scores to approve reputable borrowers, TD could build a multiproduct relationship with new immigrants from the moment they entered Canada. Google Pay stored credit cards from participating banks. Google Pay could be used to pay for things online and in stores through contactless payment on consumers’ phones. Many Canadian banks already allowed consumers to add their cards to the platform and some experts believed that disruption was already significantly in progress in that activity. TD already allowed customers to add cards to their Apple Wallet. Hogarth wondered if it made sense to allow it on Google Pay as well or if it should develop its own digital wallet to avoid ceding even more power to outside organizations that might diminish TD’s power to compete in the future. In addition to control, bringing TD support to third-party wallets didn’t come without financial costs. Apple Pay charged TD about 50 cents per credit card on the platform each year and 0.15 percent per transaction processed; Google Pay likely would have similar costs16. DIGITAL STRATEGY PROPOSAL Stepping off the elevator and walking toward his car, Hogarth mulled over the remarks Innovation Council executives that were central to the issue. Wendy Arnott, VP Customer Experience & Innovation, reinforced the fact that customer expectations were increasing, "Customers continue to express that they want to bank with us through their channel of choice. They are increasingly comparing their experiences with us to those that they're receiving from all companies they do business with, not just banks." The Innovation Council all agreed that as customers’ lives became increasingly digital, exploring technologies was critical if TD wanted to shape the future of banking. Hogarth thought, “This is about bringing the bank to fintech. We must embrace technology and find pragmatic solutions, and it won't be replicating what we've done in the branches and moving it to the screen. It’s about evolving the nature of the relationship with the customer.” Henderson’s statement rang in Hogarth’s ears, “We have the financial resources to invest whatever is needed to address this issue, but the long-term returns have to make sense.” He created a list of questions in his mind: 1. What activity should we prioritize to enhance and protect from fintech disruption, payments, consumer finance/lending or wealth management? 2. What customers should we pursue first with our solutions? Should we pursue the Gen Z and Millennials that embrace technology, or should we focus on older generations that generate more of our revenues? As he reviewed these thoughts, he realized he was standing on the passenger side of his car. It had been four years since he had moved to Canada, but from time to time his Australian roots still showed. TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 9 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 1 – Canadian Commercial Banking Overview Breakdown of market share for major banks in Canada Major players (Market share) Royal Bank of Canada 24.1% TD Scotiabank Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Bank of Montreal Other 21.6% 15.3% 14.9% 12.4% 11.7% Annual industry growth Businesses 4.4% (2017-2022) 87 Segmentation of Canadian banking clients and the products provided to these clients Product and services segmentation (2017) Business loans, 12% Other, 57% Mortgage loans, 15% Consumer loans, 15% Market segmentation (2017) Branch banking customers, 10% Other personal clients, 3% Sales, Online banking customers, 41% ATM banking users, 13% Mobile banking customers, 14% Corporate customers, 20% Source: Prepared with data from Ismailanji, M. (2017, September). Commercial banking in Canada. Report 52211CA. Retrieved from IBISWorld database 10 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 2 – The Impact of Digital Operations on Banking Revenues Impact from digital changes, % of net profit for retail bank % of retail business profit 40 30 30 20 10 10 5 0 -6 -10 -20 -13 Innovative new Increased revenue from innovative offers by offers and competitors business models -16 Margin compression Increased Increased revenue Lower operational operational risk costs from from new products automation, and cross-selling digitization Source: Prepared with data from Broeders, H., & Khanna, S. (2015). Strategic choices for banks in the digital age. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/strategicchoices-for-banks-in-the-digital-age TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 11 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 3 – Digital Effects on Performance Direction and scale of impact of main threats and opportunities for banks Full disintermediation Service area Consumer disintermediation Significantly cheaper operations New markets Net profit impact Consumer finance Mortgages SME lending Retail & SME payments Chequing account deposits & personal financial management Wealth management Insurance Legend: Very large negative impact Large negative impact Modest negative impact Slight negative impact Neutral Slight improvement Source: Dietz, M., Harle, P., Khanna, S. and Mazingo, C. (2015). The fight for the customer. McKinsey global banking annual review 2015. McKinsey. Retrieved from www.mckinsey.com 12 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 4 – Banking Revenue Activities and Disruptive Threats Disruptive threat to various financial services areas Ranking of banking activities and how attractive they are to and how well they fit with the capabilities of digital giants Activity Attractiveness based on size of revenue pool, regulations, capital intensity Consumer lending Mortgages Consumer wealth management Consumer & small business payments 3 4 2 Fit with capabilities based on customer access, brand power, scale & network effects, data advantage 4 3 2 1 1 1= most attractive/best aligned; 4=least Source: Kumar, M., Saumya, S., Berz, K., Le Boulay, G., Tang, T., Tripathi, S., Walsh, I., Xavier, A., & Robin. M. (2019). Banks brace for a new wave of digital disruption. Boston Consulting Group. Retrieved from https://www.bcg.com/enca/publications/2019/banks-brace-new-wave-digital-disruption.aspx Estimated impact in fintech disruption on five retail banking businesses by 2025 Area Consumer finance Payments SME lending Wealth management Mortgages Profit change (%) -60 -35 -35 -30 -20 Revenue change (%) -40 -30 -15 -15 -10 Source: Created with data from Dietz, M., Harle, P., Khanna, S. and Mazingo, C. (2015). The fight for the customer. McKinsey global banking annual review 2015. McKinsey. Retrieved from www.mckinsey.com TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 13 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 5 – Consumer Insights Response to consumer survey on what services would change their loyalty to their primary bank. Locate discounts Simplify home buying Provide more personal service Provide real-time, proactive actionable advice Help to proactively pay & manage bills (n=4013) 45% 43% 40% 39% 39% Source: Created with data from Edmondson, D., Sadowski, S., & Vogtle, J. (2016). 2016 North America Consumer Digital Banking Survey. Retrieved from Accenture Consulting: https://www.accenture.com/t20160609T222453__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/PDF-22/Accenture2016-North-America-Consumer-Digital-Banking-Survey.pdf What global financial services consumers value the most 90% 80% Protection valued most by all demographics 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Valued most by affluent consumers over 40 years old Source: Created with data from CGI (2016). FinTech disruption in financial services. A consumer perspective. Retrieved from https://www.cgi.com 14 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 6 – TD Bank Group Overview Business description Canadian Retail Personal banking, credit cards & auto finance Small business & commercial banking Direct investing, advicebased wealth businesses and asset management Property, casualty, life and health insurance Operations & results Earnings $1,852 (CAD$ MM Q3, 2018) Customers Over 15 million Employees Approx. 38,500 Branches/ 1,154 branches; ATMs ATMs U.S. Retail Wholesale Personal banking, credit Research, investment cards & auto finance banking and capital Small business & market services commercial banking Global transaction Corporate & specialty banking banking Presence in key global Wealth private client financial centres, services including New York, Strategic relationship with London, Singapore TD Ameritrade $1,143 $223 Over 9 million Approx. 26,000 3,172 1, 244 stores; 2,399 ATMs Source: Created from data provided by TD TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 15 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 7 – Relevant Excerpts and Financials from TD’s 2017 Annual Report Canadian Retail segment business strategy The strategy for Canadian Retail is to: • Consistently deliver legendary personal connected customer experiences across all channels and provide trusted advice to help our customers feel confident about their financial future. • Deepen customer relationships by… growing in underrepresented products and markets. • Execute with speed and impact, taking only those risks we can understand and manage. • Innovate with purpose for our customers and colleagues, simplifying to make it easier to get things done. • Be recognized as an extraordinary place to work where diversity and inclusiveness are valued. • Contribute to the well-being of our communities. U.S. Retail segment business strategy The strategy for U.S. Retail is to: • Deliver legendary omni-channel service and convenience. • Grow and deepen customer relationships. • Leverage our differentiated brand as the “human” bank. • Deliver productivity initiatives that enhance both customer and employee experience. • Build upon our unique employee culture. • Maintain our conservative risk appetite. • Actively support the communities where we operate. 16 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 7 – Relevant Excerpts and Financials from TD’s 2017 Annual Report (Cont’d) Corporate income statement Corporate balance sheet TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 17 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Exhibit 7 – Relevant Excerpts and Financials from TD’s 2017 Annual Report (Cont’d) Canadian retail banking revenue breakdown U.S. retail banking revenue breakdown Source: TD. (2018). 2017 Annual Report. Retrieved from https://www.td.com/document/PDF/ar2017/ar2017-Complete-Report.pdf Exhibit 8 – Overview TD digital activities Included with permission from TD. Source: TD Bank Group. (2018). Investor Presentation - Q3 2018. Retrieved from https://www.td.com/document/PDF/investor/2018/2018Q3_TD_Investor_Presentation_F_EN.pdf 18 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. NOTES Ismailanji, M. (2017, September). Commercial banking in Canada. Report 52211CA. Retrieved from IBISWorld database. 1 Schedule I banks were permitted to accept deposits and were not subsidiaries of foreign banks, which made them eligible to receive, hold and enforce a special security interest. Schedule II banks were subsidiaries of foreign banks. Both Schedule I and II banks were allowed to accept deposits. Schedule III banks were often foreign banks permitted to operate in Canada but limited in the range of banking services they could offer. Examples of Schedule III banks included Capital One and Bank of America. 2 Statistics Canada (2020). Table 22-10-0115-01 Smartphone use and smartphone habits by gender and age group. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.25318/2210011501-eng 3 Dietz, M., Harle, P., Khanna, S. and Mazingo, C. (2015). The fight for the customer. McKinsey global banking annual review 2015. McKinsey. Retrieved from www.mckinsey.com 4 Caplain, J. (2018). Taking on the world. KPMG. Retrieved from https://home.kpmg.com 5 Pilcher, J. (2015, May). No Loyalty? Millennials Not Afraid to Dump Their Banks. The Financial Brand. Retrieved from https://thefinancialbrand.com/51778/millennialbank-switching-study/ 6 Canadian Bankers Association (2019). Focus: How Canadians Bank. Retrieved from https://cba.ca/technology-and-banking 7 TransUnion. (n.d.) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/growth-in-canadianfintechs-having-impact-on-canada-s-banking-landscape-882169096.html 8 CGI (2016). FinTech Disruption in Financial Services. A Consumer Perspective. Retrieved from https://www.cgi.com 9 Edmondson, D., Sadowski, S., & Vogtle, J. (2016). 2016 North America Consumer Digital Banking Survey. Retrieved from Accenture Consulting: https://www.accenture.com/t20160609T222453__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/PDF22/Accenture-2016-North-America-Consumer-Digital-Banking-Survey.pdf 10 Application programming interfaces (APIs) make it easier for developers to use certain technologies in building applications. 11 Bloch, M., Blumberg, S., & Laartz, J. (2012, October 1). Delivering large-scale IT projects on time, on budget, and on value. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/ourinsights/delivering-large-scale-it-projects-on-time-on-budget-and-on-value 12 Oliver Wyman. (2018, February). The Customer Value Gap: Re-Calculating Route. Retrieved from https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliverwyman/v2/publications/2018/February/The-State-Of-The-Financial-ServicesIndustry-2018.pdf 13 Statistics Canada. (2017, October 25). Ethnic and cultural origins of Canadians: Portrait of a rich heritage. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/98200-x/2016016/98-200-x2016016-eng.cfm 14 TD – Preparing for the Future of Banking 19 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022. For the exclusive use of S. Albo, 2022. Dimbuene, Z. T. & Turcotte, M. (2019, April 17). Study on International Money Transfers from Canada. Statistics Canada. Retrieved from https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/89-657-x/89-657-x2019007-eng.htm 15 Shecter, B. (2016, May 10). Canadian banks got slightly better deal on Apple Pay: source. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://financialpost.com/news/fpstreet/canadian-banks-got-slightly-better-deal-on-apple-pay-source 16 20 Case Research Journal •Volume 41• Issue 1• Winter 2021 This document is authorized for use only by Sophie Albo in Comm 401 Winter 22 taught by Michel Greiche, Concordia University - Canada from Jan 2022 to Apr 2022.