Hospital Sector Analysis Q1FY23 Results Hospital Sector – Q1FY23 Result Comparison Rs. In Crores Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin Net Profit Q1FY23 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Apollo 3795.60 7.03% 0.94% 490.74 5.94% -5.60% 12.93% -13 bps -90 bps 317.11 251.80% -35.19% Fortis 1487.85 7.96% 5.50% 251.10 13.50% -8.77% 16.88% 82 bps -264 bps 122.25 79.86% -53.61% Narayana Hyudayalaya 1033.43 9.86% 20.15% 191.97 9.65% 43.26% 18.58% -3 bps 300 bps 110.55 60.40% 45.12% Max Healthcare 1066.27 13.58% 6.61% 264.36 25.73% 8.26% 24.79% 240 bps 38 bps 172.83 39.68% 17.64% KIMS 495.51 33.08% 4.72% 137.16 20.76% -4.53% 27.68% -282 bps -268 bps 69.96 -13.30% -21.48% 1. On both YoY and QoQ basis, all hospital players witnessed good growth on the revenue side. This was mainly because of rise in elective procedures which people had postponed till the pandemic effects were high. 2. On the margin side, almost all companies have managed to maintain their previous levels. KIMS saw a decrease in their margins because of its acquisition of Sunshine Hospitals getting completed during the quarter. Sunshine operates at lower margins compared to KIMS. Hospital Sector – Q1FY23 Performance Drivers Company Key Reasons Apollo Hospitals 1) The company earned 39% of the quarterly revenue through the pharmacy business of the company 2) The company has a total of 71 hospitals (44 owned) on 30th June, 2022 with a total bed capacity of 9911 (includes managed hospitals). The operational beds in the hospitals owned by the company were 7864. 3) The company has a total of 4761 pharmacy stores at the end of Q1FY23 (Net addition of 232 pharmacy stores in Q1). Fortis Healthcare 1) Contribution of Covid revenues (in hospital business) in Q1FY23 was a negligible 0.6%. In Q4FY22 this was 6% compared to 45% in Q1FY22 (Covid 2nd wave effect) 2) The company had a bed occupancy rate of 65% during the quarter. In comparison, occupancy rate was 65% in Q1FY22 as well and 59% in Q4FY22. 3) In the case of the diagnostic arm of the company – SRL Labs, the Covid revenue during the quarter was 6% of its total diagnostic revenue in Q1FY23. In comparison, Covid revenue was 45% of total revenue in Q1FY22 (Covid 2nd Wave) and 22% of total revenue in Q4FY22 (Omicron Wave). 1) Recovery of high end electives continued in this quarter. In Q1FY22, unlike other hospital companies, NH did not have a huge inflow of Covid patients because of highly specialized nature of their units. Due to this, the Narayana YoY numbers are good for the company. Hrudayalaya 2) 35% of the company’s revenues from India operations have been from Bengaluru region which also has the company’s flagship hospital. The three hospitals in this region have earned a combined EBITDA of 31% during the quarter. In Q4FY22, this region earned a margin of 28%. Hospital Sector – Q1FY23 Performance Drivers Company Key Reasons 1) EBITDA per bed of Rs. 62 lakhs earned by the company during the quarter 2) Compared to the previous quarter (Q4FY22), the revenue has increased by 14% and the EBITDA has increased by around 24%. In Q4FY22, the Omicron wave had an adverse effect on the operation of the Max Healthcare company since this led to lower Non-Covid revenue due to lockdown and Covid hospitalizations were low due to Omicron being a mild variant. 3) The company had a bed occupancy rate of 74% during the quarter. Krishna 1) Cardiac Sciences have contributed the highest at 19% to the revenue mix during Q1FY23 Institute of 2) Compared to the previous quarter (Q4FY22), the revenue has increased by 33% and the EBITDA has Medical increased by around 21%. The key reason for this is consolidation of Sunshine Hospitals with KIMS which Sciences (KIMS) has resulted in an increased topline. Hospital Sector - Revenue & EBITDA Trend Revenue Trend 4000 3500 Revenue in Crs 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Apollo Q3FY21 Fortis Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Narayana Hrudayalaya Q2FY22 Max Healthcare Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 KIMS *KIMS is a newly listed companies. Since, quarterly reporting was not mandated before their listing, the data for the same is not available Hospital Sector - Revenue & EBITDA Trend EBITDA Trend EBITDA Margin Trend 700 35% 615 587 600 30% 520 491 500 25% 463 400 300 20% 287 284 275 244 200 246 239 221 175 169 134 144 251 210 192 175 15% 10% 137 130 129 264 114 100 5% 0 0% Q1FY22 Apollo Q2FY22 Fortis Q3FY22 Narayana Hrudayalaya Q4FY22 Max Q1FY23 KIMS Q1FY22 Apollo Q2FY22 Fortis Q3FY22 Narayana Hrudayalaya Q4FY22 Max Healthcare Q1FY23 KIMS Hospital Sector – Q1FY23 Earnings Call Highlights Company Q1FY23 Apollo • 41% of the revenue was from insurance route – This has positively impacted the ARPOB during the quarter. • Surgical revenue during the quarter was 68% of the total revenue. This has increased from 60% in Q1FY22. This is a higher margin service. • International patients are 85% of pre-Covid levels in terms of volumes – In terms of revenue, the metric is already at pre-Covid level. • The capex in the new acquisition of Gurgaon would be a maximum of Rs. 900 Cr – Rs. 450 Cr would be spent in acquisition, around Rs. 350 on building and other expenses. Fortis • The numbers on surgicals are encouraging and at 61% of the revenue contribution, these are at all time high for any quarter. • The brownfield expansion plan of the company – Adding 1500 beds in the next 3 years would be funded through internal accruals. Narayana Hrudayalaya • The company registered highest ever EBITDA margin in their India operations during the quarter. • Currently the ALOS (average length of stay) is around 4.6 days. The company plans to bring it down to around 4 in the long run. • Capex plans over the next 3-5 years is of around Rs. 700-1000 Cr. Hospital Sector – Q1FY23 Earnings Call Highlights Company Q1FY23 Max Healthcare • The company has taken a price hike of around 2-2.5% in the quarter. • International patient mix is already back to pre-Covid levels. Afghanistan forms a key part of international patient mix for the company and this is yet to normalize. • Max Lab, which is a non-captive pathology vertical reported gross revenue of Rs.26 crore. It added 90 channel partners during the first quarter of FY23, taking the overall active clients to 850 plus. Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences • Average length of stay has improved to 4.14 from 4.59 on quarter-on-quarter basis. • KIMS has curved a special niche for itself in the areas like organ transplantation, neurosciences, oncological sciences, renal sciences and gastro sciences. The management hopes that the acquisition of Sunshine Hospitals will enable it to reach more patients particularly from the orthopedic segment. • April and May months were unusually bad for the company during this year. However, things picked up quickly in late May. • The company expects its new hospital in Nashik and Bengaluru to be operational within 15-18 months. Hospital Sector - Segment Analysis ARPOB (Average Revenue per Operating Bed) Average Occupancy 74% 58% 60% 68% 65% 74% 66% 63500 59% 48510 51999 51507 66000 53699 30192 25144 APOLLO FORTIS NARAYANA HRUDAYALAYA Q4FY22 MAX HEALTHCARE KIMS APOLLO Q1FY23 FORTIS NARAYANA Q4FY22 MAX KIMS Q1FY23 *Narayana Hrudayalaya has not disclosed average occupancy levels and ARPOB in their investor presentation. 1. The occupancy levels of all hospitals have improved on a QoQ basis with the only exception being KIMS. The reason for the same is with the consolidation of Sunshine Hospitals, the overall occupancies have diluted since Sunshine operates at around 40% average occupancy. 2. Max Hospitals continues to see healthy increase in its ARPOB. All other players have also improved this mainly due to a superior case mix in post Covid environment. Hospital Sector - Headwinds and Tailwinds Tailwinds Headwinds 1) Massive scope for operating leverage to play - Hospitals need to be open 24x7, they need to be adequately staffed in case there is a sudden rise in people requiring hospitalization (Eg – Covid pandemic). Hence, the fixed costs will be a drag in times when the demand for their services is low but operating leverage play will massively improve margins during good demand 1) The sector is very capital intensive. Land, building, medical equipment etc., require heavy investments along with high operating costs. This creates a significant barrier to entry and expansion, and is one of the key reasons why bed density continues to lag requirements 2) Due to high cases of Covid in the country, people who had delayed electives surgeries would opt for the same now. This is a high margin business for the hospitals and would help in margin expansion 2) Hospital sector in India is heavily regulated with major regulations in licensing, approvals, prices of drugs and consumables 3) There is an increase in per capita healthcare expenditure due to rising income, easier access to high-quality healthcare facilities and greater awareness of personal health and hygiene 3) For an average Indian, affordability is still an issue – The average revenue per operating bed of the listed players is around 25k-60k per day. Hence, getting hospitalized is an expensive affair. 60% of expenses in India are paid by the patients out of pocket. Hence, demand can be bit of a concern for the bigger players 4) Specialized surgeries are a high margin business. Almost all players in the industry specialize in one or more of specialized surgeries – For eg. ECMO treatment in case of KIMS and Cardiac Sciences in case of Narayan Hrudayalaya. These businesses will increase EBITDA % as the economy gradually opens up. Hospital Sector – Growth Graph Hospital Sector - Stock Update Current Market Price (Rs.) Market Capitalization (Rs. In Crores) Earnings Per Share (EPS) (TTM) Current P/E Ratio Median PE- 3 Years Median PE- 5 Years Apollo 4,210 58,546 63.52 66.27 74.94 77.57 Fortis 293 22,332 5.43 54.00 36.52 - Narayana Hrudayalaya 718 14,587 18.55 38.71 41.41 45.62 Max Healthcare 388 37,050 6.61 58.72 95.27 95.27 1,221 9,650 39.54 30.88 49.55 49.55 Company KIMS Disclaimer: This Hospital Sector report has been prepared by the InvestYadnya Team based on the Quarterly Result of the companies. This report should not be the basis for the stock selection of the investors. Do follow due diligence before making any investment decision.