Managerial Economics & Business Strategy CHAPTER 1 THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS Overview I. Introduction II. The Economics of Effective Management Identify Goals and Constraints Recognize the Role of Profits Understand Incentives Five Forces Model Understand Markets Recognize the Time Value of Money Use Marginal Analysis Problem-Solving Method Managerial Economics Manager Economics A person who directs resources to achieve a stated goal. The science of making decisions in the presence of scarce resources. Managerial Economics The study of how to direct scarce resources in the way that most efficiently achieves a managerial goal. Genesis 3:19 19 By the sweat of your brow you will eat your food until you return to the ground, since from it you were taken; for dust you are and to dust you will return.” Relevance of Managerial Economics for Non-Profit Organization Managers A relief agency receives a grant to plan a program to help refugees. Should it add a staff member or buy a computer system with this funds? A private university wishes to raise money to build a new wing on its library. Should it undertake a direct-mail campaign or seek funds through personal solicitations, or both? How much should the university invest in these fund-raising efforts? Relevance of Managerial Economics for Non-Profit Organization Managers A church runs a popular adult-education program that is losing money. Should the church expand or contract the program? A community agency for the elderly runs a day-care program and a Meals on Wheel program. How should it allocate its limited staff and budget between these two programs? Identify Goals and Constraints Achieving different goals entails making different decisions. The constrains include such things as the available technology and prices of inputs used in production. Recognize the nature and importance of Profit Accounting Profits Total revenue (sales) minus dollar cost of producing goods or services. Reported on the firm’s income statement. Economic Profits Total revenue minus total opportunity cost. Opportunity Cost Accounting Costs The explicit costs of the resources needed to produce goods or services. Reported on the firm’s income statement. Opportunity Cost The cost of the explicit and implicit resources that are foregone when a decision is made. Economic Profits Total revenue minus total opportunity cost. Profit is a Signal Profit signal to resource holders where resources are most highly valued by society. By moving scarce resources toward the production of goods most valued by society, the total welfare of society is improved. The Five Forces Framework Entry Costs Speed of Adjustment Sunk Costs Economies of Scale Entry Power of Input Suppliers Power of Buyers Supplier Concentration Price/Productivity of Alternative Inputs Relationship-Specific Investments Supplier Switching Costs Government Restraints Sustainabl e Industry Profits Industry Rivalry Concentration Price, Quantity, Quality, or Service Competition Degree of Differentiation Network Effects Reputation Switching Costs Government Restraints Switching Costs Timing of Decisions Information Government Restraints Buyer Concentration Price/Value of Substitute Products or Services Relationship-Specific Investments Customer Switching Costs Government Restraints Substitutes & Complements Price/Value of Surrogate Products or Services Price/Value of Complementary Products or Services Network Effects Government Restraints Interview with Michael Porter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYF2_FBCvXw Understand Incentives Managerial economics would enable you to structure incentives within your organization. Understand Markets Consumer-Producer Rivalry Consumer-Consumer Rivalry Scarcity of goods reduces the negotiating power of consumers as they compete for the right to those goods. Producer-Producer Rivalry Consumers attempt to locate low prices, while producers attempt to charge high prices. Scarcity of consumers causes producers to compete with one another for the right to service customers. The Role of Government Disciplines the market process. Recognize the Time Value of Money Present value (PV) of a lump-sum amount (FV) to be received at the end of “n” periods when the per-period interest rate is “i”: PV . FV 1 i n Present Value of a Series Present value of a stream of future amounts (FVt) received at the end of each period for “n” periods: PV FV1 1 i 1 FV2 1 i 2 ... FVn 1 i n Net Present Value Suppose a manager can purchase a stream of future receipts (FVt ) by spending “C0” dollars today. The NPV of such a decision is NPV FV1 1 i If 1 FV2 1 i 2 ... FVn 1 i Decision Rule: NPV < 0: Reject project NPV > 0: Accept project n C0 Present Value of a Perpetuity An asset that perpetually generates a stream of cash flows (CF) at the end of each period is called a perpetuity. The present value (PV) of a perpetuity of cash flows paying the same amount at the end of each period is CF CF CF ... 2 3 1 i 1 i 1 i CF i PVPerpetuity Use Marginal Analysis Control Variables Output Price Product Quality Advertising R&D Basic Managerial Question: How much of the control variable should be used to maximize net benefits? Net Benefits Net Benefits = Total Benefits - Total Costs Profits = Revenue - Costs Marginal Benefit (MB) Change in total benefits arising from a change in the control variable, Q: B MB Q Slope (calculus derivative) of the total benefit curve. Marginal Cost (MC) Change in total costs arising from a change in the control variable, Q: C MC Q Slope (calculus derivative) of the total cost curve Marginal Principle To maximize net benefits, the managerial control variable should be increased up to the point where MB = MC. MB > MC means the last unit of the control variable increased benefits more than it increased costs. MB < MC means the last unit of the control variable increased costs more than it increased benefits. Marginal decision making example • Discussion: How much advertising? • A $50,000 increase in the TV ad budget brings in 1,000 new customers • Estimated MCTV is $50 (the cost to get one more customer) • • $50,000 / 1,000 = $50 If the marginal revenue generated by this customer is greater than $50, do more advertising. Marginal decision making example (cont.) • Even if we do not know the marginal revenue, we can still use marginal analysis to make extent decisions • Compare TV advertising to telephone solicitation • Say you recently cut telephone budget by $10,000 and lost 100 customers • • Estimated MCPH = $100= ($10,000 / 100) So, to get one more customer costs $50 for TV and $100 for phone • MCPH > MCTV so shift ad dollars from phone to TV Problem-Solving Method Example: Over-bidding OVI gas tract 26 A young geologist was preparing a bid recommendation for an oil tract in the Gulf of Mexico. With knowledge of the productivity of neighboring tracts also owned by company, the geologist recommended a bid of $5 million. Senior management, though, bid $20 million - far over the next highest-bid of $750,000. What, if anything, is wrong? ANSWER: Manager bonuses for increasing reserves 27 The bonus system created incentives to over-bid. Senior managers were rewarded for acquiring reserves regardless of their profitability Bonuses also created incentive to manipulate the reserve estimate. Problem Solving Method Two distinct steps: • Figure out what’s wrong, i.e., why the bad decision was made • Figure out how to fix it Both steps require a model of behavior • Why are people making mistakes? • What can we do to make them change? 28 Problem Solving Method Economists use the rational actor paradigm to model behavior. The rational actor paradigm states: • People act rationally, optimally, selfinterestedly, i.e., they respond to incentives – to change behavior you must change incentives. Problem Solving Method How do we fix problem? Let someone else decide? Change information flow? Change incentives? Performance Reward evaluation metric scheme Conclusion Make sure you include all costs and benefits when making decisions (opportunity cost). When decisions span time, make sure you are comparing apples to apples (PV analysis). Optimal economic decisions are made at the margin (marginal analysis).