11 DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION REGION III Schools Division of Tarlac Province Macabulos Drive, San Roque, Tarlac City Learning Activity Sheet in Statistics and Probability Quarter 3 - Week 3 Computing the Mean and Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution (M11/12SP-IIIb-1, M11/12SP-IIIb-2, M11/12SP-IIIb-3, M11/12SP-IIIb-4) Subject – Grade 11 Learning Activity Sheet Quarter 3 – Week 3: Computing the Mean and Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution First Edition, 2022 Republic Act 8293, section 176 states that: No copyright shall subsist in any work of the Government of the Philippines. However, prior approval of the government agency or office wherein the work is created shall be necessary for exploitation of such work for profit. Such agency or office may, among other things, impose as a condition the payment of royalties. 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CAPARAS, EdD, LRMS Supervisor NAME, Education Program Supervisor - Subject NAME, CID Chief NAME, Division EPS in-charge of LRMS NAME, Division EPS – Subject Printed in the Philippines by ________________________ Department of Education – Region III, Schools Division of Tarlac Province Office Address: Telefax: Email Address: Macabulos Drive, Brgy. San Roque, Tarlac City 2300 Tarlac (045) 982 0345 | 982 0374 tarlac@deped.gov.ph Mathematicians usually consider the outcomes of a coin toss as a 1 random event. That is, each probability of getting a head is 2, and the 1 probability of getting a tail is 2. However, it is not possible to predict with 100% certainty which outcomes will occur. But new studies question this theory. During World War II, a South African mathematician named John Kerrich tossed a coin 10,000 times while he was interned in a German prison camp. Unfortunately, the results of his experiment were never recorded. With this, you will learn how to determine the likeliness of the happening of an event as you go along with the lesson. Going back to the lessons in Mathematics in your Junior High School year, you have learned how to compute and describe for mean and variance of ungrouped and grouped data. In this lesson, we shall discuss the mean and variance associated with probabilities, called mean and variance of a discrete probability distribution. And at the end of the lesson, you are able to illustrate, calculate, interpret, and solve problems involving the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete probability distribution. Kindly, follow the directions and answer the questions honestly in your notebook. Always remember, knowledge is a valuable asset that no one can take away from you. Goodluck and enjoy learning! Recalling that the mean of ungrouped data is known as average. The Σ𝑥 formula for the mean of ungrouped data is mean (𝑥̅ ) = 𝑁 . Directions: The table shows the grades of the 5 random STEM learners in the first quarter. Find the average of each learner. Subjects Oral Commnunication General Mathematics Personal Development Understanding Culture, Society, and Politics Student Student Student Student Student A B C D E 94 88 92 96 97 97 94 92 94 93 88 95 92 82 88 83 94 87 91 81 Komunikasyon at Pananaliksik sa Wika at Kulturang Pilipino Physical Education and Health English for Academic and Professional Purposes General Biology 1 Precalculus Average 90 97 94 85 91 85 96 91 91 85 88 96 92 93 86 90 96 95 98 90 96 93 96 89 81 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Suppose, you rolled a die once, what do you think is the average number of spots that would appear? The following activity will help you answer this question. Mean of a Discrete Probability Distributions Steps in Finding the Mean Step 1: Construct the probability distribution for the random variable X. Step 2: Multiply the value of the random variable X by the corresponding probability. Step 3: Add the results obtained in Step 2. And the result in step 3 will be the mean when simplified. Let 𝑥 be the number of spots in a die and 𝑝(𝑥) be the probability of a certain value of 𝑥. (Note, the symbol asterisk “ ∗ ” means multiplication and mu “𝜇” is the symbol for the population mean.) 𝒙 𝒑(𝒙) 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 1 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 2 2∗ 6 3 3∗ 6 4 4∗ 6 5 5∗ 6 6 6∗ 6 21 Σ[x ∗ 𝑝(𝑥)] 𝑜𝑟 𝜇 = 𝑜𝑟 3.5 6 2 3 4 5 6 Total Σ𝑝(𝑥) = 1∗ 6 =1 6 1 = 6 1 = 6 1 = 6 1 = 6 1 = 6 1 = 6 As you can see on the table above, the p(x) in every spot is and the sum of the p(x) is 1 which only means that it is a probability 6 distribution. The mean of the probability distribution tells us that the average number of spots that would appear is 3.5. That is in rolling a die many times, theoretically the mean will be 3.5. 1 Formula for the Mean of the Probability Distribution 𝜇 = [𝑥1 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥1 )] + [𝑥2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥2 )] + ⋯ , +[𝑥𝑛 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥𝑛 )] or 𝜇 = Σ [𝑥 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] where: 𝜇 𝑥 𝑝(𝑥) = means = values of random variable x; and = the corresponding probabilities Example 1. Cellular Phone Sales The probability that a cellular phone kiosk in Waltermart Capas sells 𝑥 number of new phone contracts per day which is shown in the table below. What is the average number of cellular phone that a kiosk will be sold? Solution: 𝒙 4 5 6 8 10 Total 𝒑(𝒙) 8 20 6 20 2 20 3 20 1 20 20 Σ𝑝(𝑥) = =1 20 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 8 32 4∗ = 20 20 6 30 5∗ = 20 20 2 12 6∗ = 20 20 3 24 8∗ = 20 20 1 10 10 ∗ = 20 20 108 Σ[x ∗ 𝑝(𝑥)] 𝑜𝑟 𝜇 = 𝑜𝑟 5.4 20 Therefore, the mean of the probability distribution is 5.4. This suggests that the average number of cellular phone which will be sold for the day is 5.4 or approximately 5. Always Remember A discrete random variable 𝒙, the mean, denoted by 𝝁, is the sum of the products formed from multiplying the possible values of 𝒙 with their corresponding probabilities. Variance of Discrete Probability Distributions The Variance and Standard Deviation describe the amount of spread, dispersion, or variability of the items in a distribution. Steps in Finding the Variance and Standard Deviation Step 1. Find the mean of the probability distribution. Step 2. Subtract the mean from each value of the random variable X. Step 3. Square the results obtained in Step 2. Step 4. Multiply the results obtained in Step 3 by the corresponding probability Step 5. Get the sum of the results obtained in Step 4 to get the variance. Step 6. Get the square root of the result in Step 5 to get the standard deviation. Example 1. Face Mask Consumed in a Day The number of face mask consumed by Mr. Lee’s household for the last three months is listed below. Estimating the number of face mask to be bought for the next month is necessary. To get that, let’s compute for the mean, variance, and standard deviation of probability distribution using the following steps. Let 𝑥 be the number of face mask consumed per month and 𝑝(𝑥) be the corresponding probability. 13 1 5 𝒙 𝒑(𝒙) 15 2 5 16 2 5 Solutions: Step 1. Find the mean of the probability distribution. 𝒙 13 15 16 𝒑(𝒙) 1 5 2 5 2 5 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 13 5 30 5 32 5 𝝁 = Σ[𝑥 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥)] = 75 = 𝟏𝟓 5 Step 2. Subtract the mean from each value of the random variable X. 𝒙 13 𝒑(𝒙) 1 5 2 5 2 5 15 16 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 13 5 30 5 32 5 Step 3. Square the results obtained in Step 2. 𝒙 𝒑(𝒙) 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 1 13 13 5 5 2 30 15 5 5 2 32 16 5 5 𝒙−𝝁 13 − 15 = −2 15 − 15 = 0 16 − 15 = 1 𝒙−𝝁 13 − 15 = −2 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 (−2)2 = 4 15 − 15 = 0 (0)2 = 0 16 − 15 = 1 (1)2 = 1 Step 4. Multiply the results obtained in Step 3 by the corresponding probability. 𝒙 13 15 16 𝒑(𝒙) 1 5 2 5 2 5 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 13 5 30 5 32 5 𝒙−𝝁 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 4 5 13 − 15 = −2 (−2)2 = 4 15 − 15 = 0 (0)2 = 0 0 16 − 15 = 1 (1)2 = 1 2 5 Step 5. Get the sum of the results obtained in Step 4 to get the variance. 𝒙 13 15 16 𝒑(𝒙) 1 5 2 5 2 5 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 13 5 30 5 32 5 𝒙−𝝁 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 13 − 15 = −2 (−2)2 = 4 15 − 15 = 0 (0)2 = 0 16 − 15 = 1 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 4 5 0 2 5 6 𝝈𝟐 = Σ[(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥)] = = 𝟏. 𝟐 5 (1)2 = 1 Step 6. Get the square root of the result in Step 5 to get the standard deviation. 𝜎 = √Σ[(𝑥 − 𝜇 )2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] = √1.2 ≈ 𝟏. 𝟎𝟗𝟓 So, the mean of the probability distribution is 15, the variance and standard deviation of the probability distribution is 1.2 and 1.095 respectively. Formula for the Variance and Standard Deviation of the Probability Distribution For the Variance of the Probability Distribution, the formula is 𝝈𝟐 = Σ[(𝑥 − 𝜇 )2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] For the Standard Deviation of the Probability Distribution, the formula is 𝝈 = √Σ[(𝑥 − 𝜇 )2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] where: 𝜇 𝑥 𝑝(𝑥) = means = values of random variable x; and = the corresponding probabilities Example 2. Pizza Deliveries Pizza shop owner determines the number of pizzas that are delivered each day. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the probability distribution. Let 𝑥 be the number of pizzas delivered in a day and 𝑝(𝑥) be the corresponding probability. 35 0.1 𝒙 𝒑(𝒙) Solution: 𝒙 35 36 37 38 39 𝒑(𝒙) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 3.5 7.2 11.1 11.4 3.9 𝜇 = 37.1 36 0.2 𝒙−𝝁 −2.1 −1.1 −0.1 0.9 1.9 37 0.3 38 0.3 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 4.41 1.21 0.01 0.81 3.61 39 0.1 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 0.441 0.242 0.003 0.243 0.361 2 𝜎 = 1.29 Since the variance (𝜎 2 ) is 1.29, then the standard deviation of the probability distribution is 𝜎 = √Σ[(𝑥 − 𝜇 )2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] = √1.29 ≈ 𝟏. 𝟏𝟑𝟔. A. Direction. Complete the table below and find the mean of the following probability distribution. 1. 𝒙 𝒑(𝒙) 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 1 0.15 2 0.25 3 0.05 4 0.35 5 0.20 𝝁= 2. 𝒙 3 6 9 12 15 18 𝒑(𝒙) 1 5 1 10 1 10 1 5 1 10 3 10 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 𝝁= B. Direction. Solve the following problems. 1. The probabilities of a machine manufacturing 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 defective parts in one day are 0.75, 0.17, 0.04, 0.025, 0.01, and 0.005, respectively. Find the mean, variance, and the standard deviation of the probability distribution. 2. The number of laptops sold per day at a local computer store, along with its corresponding probabilities, is shown in the table. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the distribution. Number of Laptops Sold (𝑥) 0 1 2 3 4 Probability 𝑝(𝑥) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Direction: Based on the discussion above, answer the following questions. 1. What are the steps in finding the mean of a probability distribution? 2. What are the steps in finding the variance of a probability distribution? 3. How to get the standard deviation of a probability distribution based on its variance? • • Formula for the Mean of the Probability Distribution 𝝁 = Σ [𝑥 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] Formula for the Variance of the Probability Distribution 𝝈𝟐 = Σ[(𝑥 − 𝜇 )2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] • Formula for the Standard Deviation of the Probability Distribution 𝝈 = √Σ[(𝑥 − 𝜇 )2 ∗ 𝑝(𝑥 )] Direction: Read and analyze the problem below, write your answer on your notebook. Dr. Yap administered a group of 20,000 students to developed a test to measure boredom tolerance. The possible scores were 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, with 6 indicating the highest tolerance for boredom. The results are shown below. Complete the following table and then find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the probability distribution to measure boredom tolerance of the students. Score Frequency 𝑓 1400 2600 3600 6000 4400 1600 400 𝑥 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability 𝑝(𝑥) Direction: Record the hours you spent in studying each day, from Monday to Friday. Construct a table that shows your x as the number of hours, frequency as how many times you obtain that given hour, and the probability of each. Then, determine the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the probability distribution. From the result, analyze it and create a conclusion. Learning Activity Sheet in Statistics and Probability Quarter 3 - Week 3: Computing the Mean and Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution (M11/12SP-IIIb-1, M11/12SP-IIIb-2, M11/12SP-IIIb-3, M11/12SP-IIIb-4) Key to Corrections Let’s 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Recall 89.56 96.22 92.22 91.67 86.11 Let’s Practice A. 1. 𝒙 1 2 𝒑(𝒙) 0.15 0.25 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 0.15 0.50 3 4 5 0.05 0.35 0.20 𝒙 3 𝒑(𝒙) 1 5 1 10 1 10 1 5 1 10 3 10 0.15 1.40 1.00 𝝁 = 3.20 2. 6 9 12 15 18 B. 1. 𝒙 𝒑(𝒙) 0 0.75 1 0.17 2 0.04 3 0.025 4 0.01 5 0.005 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 0 0.17 0.08 0.075 0.04 0.025 𝜇 = 0.39 𝒙−𝝁 −0.39 −0.61 1.61 2.61 3.61 4.61 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 3 5 6 10 9 10 12 5 15 10 54 10 𝟓𝟕 𝝁= = 𝟏𝟏. 𝟒 𝟓 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 0.152 0.372 2.592 6.812 13.032 21.252 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 0.114 0.063 0.104 0.170 0.130 0.106 2 𝜎 =0.687 𝜎 = √0.687 ≈ 0.829 2. 0 1 2 3 4 𝒙 0 1 2 3 4 𝒑(𝒙) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 𝒙−𝝁 −2.2 −1.2 −0.2 0.8 1.8 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 4.84 1.44 0.04 0.64 3.24 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) 0.484. 0.288 0.012 0.128 0.648 𝜇 =2.2 𝜎 2 = 1.56 𝜎 = √1.56 ≈ 1.249 Let’s Enrich Answers may vary Let’s Perform Answers may vary Let’s Assess Answers may vary References: Belecina, Rene R, Elisa S Baccay, and Efren B Mateo. Statistics and Probability. Firsted. 2019., 2-8. Manila, Philippines: Rex Bookstore, 2019. “Compendium of Notes in Statistics and Probability.” Tarlac: Schools Division of Tarlac Province, 2020. For inquiries or feedback, please write or call: Department of Education – Region III Schools Division of Tarlac Province Office Address: Telefax: Email Address: Macabulos Drive, Brgy. San Roque, Tarlac City 2300 Tarlac (045) 982 0345 | 982 0374 tarlac@deped.gov.ph