ICRA BUSINESS ACTIVITY
MONITOR - AN INDEX OF
HIGH FREQUENCY
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic activity improved and
became more broad-based vis-à-vis
pre-Covid levels in June 2022
JULY 2022
1
Highlights-I
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ICRA Business Activity Monitor is a
composite indicator that comprises:
▪ Auto production (2Ws and PVs)
▪ Vehicle registrations
▪ Output of Coal India Limited (CIL)
Indian economic activity improved and became more broad-based in June 2022, relative to the pre-Covid levels.
While the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the ICRA Business Activity Monitor - an index of high frequency economic
indicators*, expectedly moderated to 22.5% in June 2022 from 39.2% in May 2022 owing to a normalising base, the
growth relative to pre-Covid improved to 15.2% from 12.0%, respectively. Moreover, a higher number of sectors
surpassed their pre-Covid volumes in June 2022 relative to the previous month.
Even as the Index expanded by 25.4% YoY in Q1 FY2023 on a low base, it surpassed the pre-Covid levels of Q1 FY2020
by a healthy 14.5% (+3.4% in FY2022 vs. FY2020). ICRA pegs the YoY GDP growth for Q1 FY2023 at a lower 12.5-13%,
reflecting the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the associated rise in commodity prices on demand and the
margins of India Inc., and thereby the value-added growth, as well as the relatively subdued agricultural
performance. However, the seemingly robust demand for services and the recent fall in commodity prices offer an
upside to GDP growth in Q2 FY2023 relative to our current forecast of 6.5-7.0%.
▪ Power generation
▪ Rail freight traffic
•
Base normalisation dampened YoY growth of several indicators in June 2022: As many as 14 of the 16 indicators
witnessed a moderation in their YoY growth in June 2022 relative to May 2022, largely on account of base
normalisation related to lifting of state-wise restrictions post the Covid 2.0 wave. In contrast, ports cargo traffic and
non-food bank credit saw an uptick in growth in June 2022, compared to May 2022.
•
However, month-on-month (MoM) and pre-Covid performances were encouraging in June 2022: The ICRA
Business Activity Monitor dipped by 1.2% to 117.0 in June 2022 from 118.4 in May 2022, the decline being
significantly lower than the 3.9% seen in June 2019, with as many as 10 of the 14 non-financial indicators reporting a
better MoM performance. The performance relative to pre-Covid levels also improved, with the ICRA Business
Activity Monitor surpassing the June 2019 levels by 15.2% in June 2022 (+12.0% in May 2022). Moreover, 10 of the
14 non-financial indicators exceeded their pre-Covid volumes in June 2022, relative to eight each in Apr-May 2022.
▪ Non-oil merchandise exports
▪ Cargo handled at major ports
▪ Consumption of petrol and diesel
▪ Finished steel consumption
▪ Generation of GST e-way bills
▪ Domestic airline passenger traffic
▪ Aggregate deposits and non-food
credit of SCBs
*While the monthly data for 16 indicators is available, for computation of ICRA Business Activity Monitor, we have clubbed the production of PVs, scooters and motorcycles
together as a single indicator; Source: ICRA Research
www.icra.in
22
Highlights- II
•
Quarterly volumes of majority of indicators exceeded pre-Covid levels in Q1 FY2023: The index averaged at 117.2
in Q1 FY2023, a YoY expansion of 25.4% on the back of a low base. Encouragingly, it exceeded the pre-Covid activity
of Q1 FY2020 by a healthy 14.5%, led by higher volumes of the CIL output, electricity generation, non-oil exports, rail
freight, steel and petrol consumption.
•
Q1 FY2023 GDP growth pegged at ~12.5-13%: Notwithstanding higher pre-Covid volumes for a majority of
indicators in Q1 FY2023, the spike in global commodity prices following the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
for a larger part of the quarter is expected to have compressed demand for goods as well as the margins of
corporates, impacting the value-added growth. Moreover, agricultural GVA growth is expected to have been
subdued in Q1 FY2023, following the heatwave seen in parts of the country. Consequently, ICRA projects the YoY
expansion in GDP at 12.5-13% in Q1 FY2023.
•
Early data for July 2022 weak; growth of the Index to ease to single-digits in Q2 FY2023: The early data for July
2022 is depicting a weak picture so far, with a YoY dip in electricity demand and daily average registration of
vehicles, although they are partly dulled by the continued base normalisation. We expect that a normalising base is
likely to moderate the YoY growth of the ICRA Business Activity Monitor to single-digits in Q2 FY2023.
•
Robust services demand, lower commodity prices offer upside to Q2 FY2023 GDP growth: Services demand
appears to be robust, aiding the growth momentum of the Indian economy. In addition, the recent correction in key
commodity prices, including crude oil amid fears of a global recession is likely to ease pressure on input costs and
hence, margins of the India Inc. in the immediate term. If this downtrend sustains, we see a tangible upside to our
estimate of the YoY GDP growth of 6.5-7.0% for Q2 FY2023.
EXHIBIT: Index Level of ICRA Business
Activity Monitor (FY2019=100)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
117.0
EXHIBIT: YoY trends in ICRA Business Activity
Monitor
22.5
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
YoY (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
www.icra.in
33
ICRA Business Activity Monitor includes high frequency indicators related to
industrial and service sectors
ICRA Business Activity Monitor
Auto
Production
(PV and 2W )
Coal India
Limited
output
Power
Generation
Rail Freight
Traffic
Non-oil
Merchandise
Exports
Cargo
handled at
Major Ports
Consumption
of Petrol and
Diesel
Finished
Generation of
Steel
GST e-way
Consumption
bills
and vehicle
registrations
Note: While the monthly data for 16 indicators is available, for computation of ICRA Business Activity Monitor, we have clubbed the production of PVs, scooters and
motorcycles together as a single indicator ; SCB: Scheduled Commercial Banks; PV: Passenger Vehicles; 2W: Two-wheelers; Source: ICRA Research
Domestic
Airline
Passenger
Traffic
Aggregate
Deposits and
Non-food
credit of SCBs
www.icra.in
44
YoY expansion in ICRA Business Activity Monitor eased to 22.5% in June 2022,
led by base normalisation
YoY (%)
Wave 2.0
Wave 3.0
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Aug-21
Jun-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
22.5
Apr-20
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Aug-21
Jun-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
Aug-20
Jun-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Dec-19
Oct-19
Aug-19
Jun-19
117.0
Wave 1.0
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Dec-19
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Oct-19
Wave 3.0
Jun-19
Wave 2.0
Aug-19
Wave 1.0
EXHIBIT: YoY growth of ICRA Business Activity Monitor
Feb-20
EXHIBIT: Level of ICRA Business Activity Monitor (FY2019=100)
Note: While the monthly data for 16 indicators is available, for computation of ICRA Business Activity Monitor, we have clubbed the production of PVs, scooters and motorcycles together as a single
indicator; Source: ICRA Research
▪ The YoY growth in the ICRA Business Activity Monitor remained optically elevated at 22.5% in June 2022 on account of the low base. However, growth was
lower than the levels seen May 2022 (+39.2%) as a base normalisation set in, with the reopening seen in June 2021 post the second wave of Covid-19.
▪ As many as 14 of the 16 constituent high-frequency indicators witnessed a moderation in their pace of YoY expansion in June 2022 relative to May 2022,
barring ports cargo traffic (to +13.6% from +8.9%) and non-food bank credit of SCBs (to +13.7% from +12.6%).
▪ In MoM terms, the ICRA Business Activity Monitor recorded a dip of 1.2% to 117.0 in June 2022 from 118.4 in May 2022), amidst the geopolitical tensions,
elevated inflation levels and tightening monetary policy across the world. However, this moderation was significantly lower than the level in June 2019 (MoM: 3.9% in June 2019.
www.icra.in
55
YoY growth of most high frequency indicators moderated in June 2022, led by
base normalisation
EXHIBIT: Heatmap of high frequency indicators
YoY
Growth
(%)
Auto Output
Domestic
Vehicle
Electricity Non-oil Ports Cargo Rail GST e-way Finished Steel
Airlines Petrol
CIL
PV Scooter Motorcycle Registration
Generation Export
Traffic
Freight
bills
Consumption
Passenger
output output
output
Diesel
Bank
Deposits
Non-Food
Bank
Credit
Jan-22
2.1
-23.6
-17.2
-10.8
6.7
0.9
19.4
-2.8
7.7
9.5
0.5
-17.1
-5.3
-6.5
8.3
8.3
Feb-22
-3.0
-23.1
-23.2
-9.2
3.9
4.6
18.9
-4.5
6.6
8.3
-5.3
-1.7
3.5
-0.7
8.6
8.0
Mar-22
-4.9
-24.7
-17.8
-2.9
-1.1
4.9
8.9
1.2
7.2
9.7
0.7
36.7
6.2
6.7
8.9
9.7
Apr-22
0.5
7.5
-1.2
37.2
27.6
11.6
17.7
5.5
9.4
28.0
1.8
92.1
17.2
7.9
9.8
11.3
May-22
131.5
411.3
111.2
207.4
30.0
23.7
12.6
8.9
14.6
84.1
18.6
471.2
51.5
31.7
9.3
12.6
Jun-22
9.5
78.1
12.4
26.1
28.9
15.8
10.3
13.6
11.3
36.2
13.3
239*
23.2
23.9
8.3
13.7
YoY growth; sequential pick-up
YoY growth; sequential dip
YoY growth; no sequential change
YoY contraction; sequential pickup
YoY contraction; sequential dip
As expected, the pace of YoY growth for most indicators eased in June 2022, on account of the normalisation of the base; in contrast, ports cargo traffic and
non-food bank credit of SCBs recorded an improvement in YoY growth during June 2022.
NA: Not available; *Based on ICRA’s estimates; Note: While the monthly data for 16 indicators is available, for computation of ICRA Business Activity Monitor, we have clubbed the
production of PVs, scooters and motorcycles together as a single indicator; Passenger Vehicles (PV), scooter and motorcycle refers to growth in production volumes; CIL: Coal India
Limited. Auto includes output of PV, two-wheelers and three-wheelers, CIL refers to growth in production volumes; electricity generation includes thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear
electricity; petrol and diesel refer to growth in consumption volumes; bank deposits and bank credit refer to growth in O/S volumes; Data on finished steel consumption (non alloy and
alloy/stainless) is taken from JPC; Source: SIAM; Joint Plant Committee; CIL; CEA; Indian Ports Association; Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Commerce, GoI; Goods and Services Tax
Network; Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Directorate General of Civil Aviation; PPAC; Indian Railways; Reserve Bank of India; Vahan Portal; Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways; CMIE; CEIC; ICRA Research
www.icra.in
66
However, MoM performance of most economic indicators improved in June
2022, relative to June 2019
EXHIBIT: MoM performance of non-financial economic indicators in June 2019 and June 2022
Deterioration
Improvement
15%
MoM (%)
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Domestic
Passenger
Traffic*
CIL's Output Rail Freight
Electricity
Vehicle
Petrol
Finished steel Ports Cargo
Generation Registration Consumption consumption
Traffic
Jun-19
GST e-way
bill
Non-oil
Exports
Motorcycle
Diesel
Scooter
Production Consumption Production
PV
Production
Jun-22
*Based on ICRA’s estimates; Note: While the monthly data for 16 indicators is available, for computation of ICRA Business Activity Monitor, we have clubbed the production of PVs, scooters and
motorcycles together as a single indicator; Source: SIAM; CIL; CEA; MoRTH; Ministry of Commerce, GoI; Indian Ports Association; Indian Railways; GSTN; DGCA; PPAC; JPC; RBI; CEIC; ICRA Research
▪ If we compare the MoM trends with the pre-Covid month (June 2019), as many as 10 out of the 14 non-financial monthly indicators, other than CIL’s output
(-5.7% in June 2022 vs. -3.7% in June 2019), rail freight traffic (-4.7% vs. -3.3%), domestic air passenger traffic (-13.0% vs. -1.2%), and electricity generation
(-2.7% vs. -2.0%), displayed a better performance in June 2022 vs. June 2019.
▪ Seven of the 14 non-financial indicators recorded a sequential uptick in June 2022, namely ports cargo traffic (+0.04%), GST e-way bills (+1.2%), non-oil exports
(+3.6%), motorcycle production (+4.8%), diesel consumption (+5.4%), scooter production (+7.8%), and PV production (+9.2%).
www.icra.in
77
Moreover, most non-financial indicators were higher in June 2022 vs. pre-Covid
levels of June 2019
Growth relative to June 2019 (%)
EXHIBIT: Performance of non-financial economic indicators in June 2022 relative to June 2019 (pre-Covid)
Deterioration
60%
Improvement
50%
40%
30%
41.3%
20%
10%
3.0%
0%
-10%
-15.6%
-12.0%
-10.1%
7.8%
12.0%
12.5%
14.7%
14.8%
15.2%
23.7%
49.7%
27.4%
-9.5%
-20%
Scooter
Production
Domestic
Passenger
Traffic*
Motorcycle
Vehicle
Diesel
Finished steel Electricity
Petrol
Ports Cargo CIL's Output ICRA Business Rail Freight
Production Registration Consumption consumption Generation Consumption
Traffic
Activity
Monitor
PV
Production
Non-oil
Exports
GST e-way bill
*Based on ICRA’s estimates; Note: While the monthly data for 16 indicators is available, for computation of ICRA Business Activity Monitor, we have clubbed the production of PVs, scooters and
motorcycles together as a single indicator; Source: SIAM; CIL; CEA; MoRTH; Ministry of Commerce, GoI; Indian Ports Association; Indian Railways; GSTN; DGCA; PPAC; JPC; RBI; CEIC; ICRA Research
▪ The ICRA Business Activity Monitor indicates that aggregate activity in June 2022 was 15.2% higher than the pre-Covid level of June 2019, an improvement
relative to the corresponding performance of May 2022 (+12.0%).
▪ 10 of the 14 non-financial indicators recorded improved volumes in June 2022 relative to the pre-Covid level of June 2019.
▪ In contrast, scooter production (-15.6%), domestic passenger traffic (-12.0%), motorcycle production (-10.1%), and vehicle registrations (-9.5%) lagged their
respective pre-pandemic volumes in June 2022.
www.icra.in
88
Number of indicators above pre-Covid volumes increased in June 2022, after
showing steady trend in Apr-May 2022
Number of non-financial indicators
in ICRA sample
EXHIBIT: Number of non-financial economic indicators above and below pre-Covid levels
5
9
Jun-21
10
7
6
6
7
8
8
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
4
Oct-21
10
8
4
6
Nov-21
Dec-21
Above pre-Covid
8
8
6
6
Jan-22
Feb-22
10
4
Mar-22
8
8
6
6
Apr-22
May-22
10
4
Jun-22
Below pre-Covid
*Pre-Covid level for April-June 2022 has been taken as April-June 2019, due to onset of first wave in April 2020, impacting the performance of some indicators in that month; Note: While the monthly data
for 16 indicators is available, for computation of ICRA Business Activity Monitor, we have clubbed the production of PVs, scooters and motorcycles together as a single indicator; Source: ICRA Research
▪ The number of non-financial sectors registering above pre-Covid volumes rose to 10 in June 2022, in line with the trends seen in March 2022, a pick-up from
the performance in Apr-May 2022 (eight). This indicates the economic activity has seen an improvement in the just-concluded month.
▪ Diesel consumption and PV production exceeded their pre-Covid volumes in June 2022, after trailing the corresponding levels in Apr 2022 and May 2022.
www.icra.in
99
Quarterly performance of majority of indicators exceeded their corresponding
pre-Covid levels in Q1 FY2023
Growth relative to pre-Covid (%)
EXHIBIT: Quarterly pre-Covid performance of non-financial economic indicators in Q4 FY2022 and Q1 FY2023
Below pre-Covid
60%
Above pre-Covid
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Scooter
Production
Motorcycle
Production
Vehicle
Registration
Domestic
Diesel
PV
Passenger Consumption Production
Traffic*
CV
Finished steel Ports Cargo
Petrol
Electricity CIL's Output
Production consumption
Traffic
Consumption Generation
Q4 FY2022 vs. Q4 FY2019
Rail Freight GST e-way bill
Non-oil
Exports
Q1 FY2023 vs. Q1 FY2020
*Based on ICRA’s estimates; ^the performance is compared to Q4 FY2019 and Q1 FY2020, since the nationwide lockdown (Covid 1.0) was imposed on March 25, 2020, affecting the performance of some
indicators in that quarter; Source: SIAM; CIL; CEA; MoRTH; Ministry of Commerce, GoI; Indian Ports Association; Indian Railways; GSTN; DGCA; PPAC; JPC; RBI; CEIC; ICRA Research
▪ In terms of the quarterly performance relative to the pre-Covid levels^, out of the 15 indicators (including CV production which is available on a quarterly basis
only), the number witnessing higher volumes stood at 10 in Q1 FY2023, as against seven in Q4 FY2022. Scooter production (-17.8%), motorcycle production
(-16.0%), vehicle registrations (-8.7%), domestic passenger traffic (-5.0%), and diesel consumption (-1.8%) lagged their pre-Covid volumes in Q1 FY2023.
▪ Additionally, the growth performance vis-à-vis the pre-Covid levels of 13 out of the 15 indicators improved in Q1 FY2023, relative to Q4 FY2022, indicating a
modest recovery. Moreover, PV production (to +6.1% in Q1 FY2023 from -8.1% in Q4 FY2022) and CV production (to +10.1% from -7.3%) reverted to a growth
in Q1 FY2023 from the contraction recorded in the previous quarter, relative to the corresponding pre-Covid levels.
www.icra.in
10
10
Auto output improved sequentially; vehicle registrations moderated in June
2022, owing to a normalising base
2W + PV production
YoY %; RHS
200%
100%
1,000
0%
Vehicle Registrations
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
-200%
Oct-20
-100%
0
Dec-20
500
Aug-20
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Oct-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Oct-19
Dec-19
-100%
YoY (%)
300%
Wave 3.0
1,500
Jun-20
-50%
Wave 2.0
2,000
Apr-20
0%
Wave 1.0
Feb-20
50%
‘000s units
2,500
Oct-19
YoY (%)
100%
Wave 3.0
Dec-19
Wave 2.0
Jun-19
Wave 1.0
Aug-19
Jun-19
‘000s units
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
EXHIBIT: Trends in vehicle registrations
Aug-19
EXHIBIT: Trends in production of PV and two wheelers (2W)
YoY %; RHS
The data on PV production provided by SIAM does not include that of Tata Motors Limited; Source:
SIAM; CEIC; ICRA Research
Vahan portal provided by the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways does not cover the vehicle registration data
for Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and Telangana; Source: Vahan, ICRA Research
▪ The YoY growth in the aggregate output of PVs and 2Ws moderated to
22.0% in June 2022 from the sharp 147.0% in May 2022, reflecting the
fading of the base effect.
▪ Moreover, the output of PVs (+9.2%) and 2Ws (+5.6%) recorded a
sequential uptick in June 2022, in tune with emerging signs of demand
recovery.
▪ Relative to pre-Covid volumes of June 2019, volume of PVs recorded a
healthy growth of 27.4% in June 2022, while the output of 2Ws trailed the
same by 11.6%.
▪ Similarly, the YoY growth in vehicle registrations eased to 26.1% in June
2022 from 207.4% in May 2022, led by a normalising base.
▪ As per the data released by FADA, retail volumes of PVs (+27.0%; with an
improvement in semiconductor availability), tractors (+40.0%; with the
onset of kharif season) and CVs (+3.9%) in June 2022 exceeded their preCovid levels of June 2019, whereas those of 2Ws (-16.4%) and 3Ws (-5.7%)
continued to trail the same.
www.icra.in
11
11
CIL’s output and electricity generation moderated in June 2022, with monsoon
arrival curtailing demand amidst the easing power supply concerns
YoY %; RHS
Source: CIL; ICRA Research; MT: Million tonnes
▪ With a 5.7% MoM decline, the output of CIL fell to an eight-month low 51.6
MT in June 2022. Additionally, the YoY growth in CIL’s output eased slightly
to 28.9% in the month, from 30.0% in May 2022. Output exceeded the preCovid output levels of June 2019 by 14.8%.
▪ Against the normative requirement of 22 days, all-India coal stock level in
power plants rose to 10.3 days as on July 14, 2022 from 9.7 days in June
2022, with an improvement in supply.
▪ With CIL issuing tenders to import 2.4 MT of coal for Q2 FY2023 to meet
electricity demand, supply is expected to further improve going forward.
-10%
Electricity generation
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
-30%
Aug-20
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Aug-21
Jun-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Oct-20
CIL's output
Dec-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Dec-19
Oct-19
-30%
YoY (%)
50%
Wave 3.0
10%
Jun-20
-10%
Wave 2.0
30%
Apr-20
10%
Wave 1.0
Feb-20
30%
Billion KWh
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Oct-19
YoY (%)
50%
Wave 3.0
Dec-19
Wave 2.0
Aug-19
Wave 1.0
Aug-19
Jun-19
Mn tonnes
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
EXHIBIT: Trends in electricity generation
Jun-19
EXHIBIT: Trends in CIL’s output
YoY %; RHS
Electricity generation includes thermal, hydro, nuclear and renewable energy; Source: CEA; ICRA
Research
▪ The YoY growth in electricity generation eased to 15.8% in June 2022 from
23.7% in May 2022, partly driven by the cooling down of temperatures in
the latter half of the month with the onset of monsoon.
▪ Electricity demand is expected to moderate further in July 2022, with the
progress of the monsoons.
▪ The average spot power tariffs in day-ahead-market (DAM) moderated to
Rs. 6.5/unit in June 2022 from Rs. 6.8/unit in May 2022, led by improved
supply from non-thermal sources, and a slight moderation in demand.
www.icra.in
12
12
Domestic steel consumption was steady in June 2022; average GST e-way bill
generation saw a modest rebound
YoY (%); RHS
Million
3.0
Wave 1.0
Wave 2.0
YoY (%)
Wave 3.0
80%
2.5
50%
2.0
Average GST e-way bill generation
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Oct-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
-40%
Apr-20
0.5
Feb-20
-10%
Oct-19
1.0
Dec-19
20%
Jun-19
1.5
Aug-19
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
YoY (%)
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
Wave 3.0
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Oct-20
JPC Steel Consumption
Dec-20
Jun-20
Wave 2.0
Aug-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Oct-19
Dec-19
Jun-19
Wave 1.0
Aug-19
Apr-19
Mn tonnes
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
EXHIBIT: Trends in average generation of GST e-way bills
Apr-19
EXHIBIT: Trends in JPC steel consumption
YoY %; RHS
Source: JPC; ICRA Research
Source: GSTN; ICRA Research
▪ Domestic finished steel consumption (non-alloy, alloy and stainless) stood
at a healthy 9.3 MT in June 2022, in line with the previous month.
▪ On a YoY basis, the growth dipped modestly to 13.3% in June 2022 from
18.6% in May 2022 on the back of a normalising base following the second
wave of Covid-19. This is mirrored by the trend in both non-alloy (+13.6%;
+17.9%) as well as alloy (+9.9%; +28.0%) items.
▪ Relative to the pre-Covid output of June 2019, finished steel consumption
was 7.8% higher in June 2022.
▪ The average daily generation of GST e-way bills improved to 2.48 million in
June 2022 from a four-month low of 2.37 million in May 2022. However, it
was 1.5% lower than the record high of 2.52 million seen in March 2022.
▪ With a modest uptick in e-way bill generation amid ongoing economic
recovery and continued transmission of higher commodity prices into
output inflation, GST collections are expected to remain healthy in July
2022, likely exceeding the Rs. 1.45 trillion garnered in June 2022.
▪ We expect substantive upside of ~Rs. 1.2 trillion to the GoI relative to its
FY2023 Budget Estimates for CGST of Rs. 6.6 trillion.
13
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Ports cargo traffic and non-oil merchandise exports were largely flat in June
2022, relative to May 2022
EXHIBIT: Trends in non-oil merchandise exports
Port Cargo Traffic
YoY (%); RHS
Non-oil Exports
Jun-22
YoY (%)
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Jun-21
Wave
Wave3.0
3.0
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Oct-20
Dec-20
Wave
Wave2.0
2.0
Aug-20
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Aug-21
Jun-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Dec-19
Oct-19
Aug-19
Jun-19
Apr-19
45
Jun-20
50
Apr-20
55
Feb-20
60
Dec-19
65
Wave
Wave1.0
1.0
US$ bn
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Oct-19
YoY (%)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Aug-19
Wave 3.0
Jun-19
Wave 2.0
Jun-22
Wave 1.0
Mn tonnes
70
Apr-19
EXHIBIT: Trends in ports cargo traffic
YoY (%); RHS
Source: Indian Ports Association; ICRA Research
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry; ICRA Research
▪ With a marginal 0.04% MoM growth in June 2022, cargo handled at ports
remained largely flat relative to May 2022.
▪ Amidst steady volumes, cargo handled at major ports recorded an uptick in
the pace of YoY growth to 13.6% in June 2022 from 8.9% in May 2022
predominantly led by the favourable base effect.
▪ Moreover, traffic in June 2022 surpassed the pre-Covid volumes of June
2019 by a healthy 14.7%, with higher shipments of coal (+32.9%),
containers (+21.2%), POL (+5.6%), and other liquids (+5.1%) outweighing
the steep decline in shipments of iron ore (-59.0%) and fertilisers (-26.9%).
▪ Non-oil exports rose by 3.6% MoM to US$31.5 billion in June 2022 from
US$30.4 billion in the previous month.
▪ While the YoY growth dipped mildly to 10.3% from 12.6%, respectively,
such exports in June 2022 surpassed the pre-Covid levels by 41.3%, boosted
by higher commodity prices.
▪ Exports of engineering goods were up by a mild 3.0% YoY in June 2022
(+12.7% in May 2022), witnessing a moderation partly on account of the
negative fallout of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
www.icra.in
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14
Rail freight traffic dipped in June 2022 from May 2022 highs; domestic air
passenger traffic ~12% lower than pre-Covid levels
Non-oil Exports
YoY (%)
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Jun-21
Wave 3.0
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Oct-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Wave 2.0
Aug-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Oct-19
Dec-19
Jun-19
Wave 1.0
Aug-19
Apr-19
Mn tonnes
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
EXHIBIT: Trends in domestic airline passenger traffic
YoY (%); RHS
In lakhs
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Wave 1.0
Wave 2.0
Wave 3.0
YoY (%)
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
EXHIBIT: Trends in rail freight traffic
Domestic Airlines' Passengers
YoY (%); RHS
Source: Indian Railways, GoI; ICRA Research
*Data for June 2022 is based on ICRA’s estimates; Source: DGCA; ICRA Research
▪ Rail freight traffic volumes declined by 4.7% MoM to 125.5 MT in June
2022, translating to a lower YoY growth of 11.3% in the month, compared
to 14.7% in May 2022.
▪ Iron ore (-3.2 MT) accounted for more than half of the decline in overall rail
freight volumes of 6.2 MT in June 2022, followed by coal (-1.8 MT) and
foodgrains (-1.0 MT).
▪ Regardless, freight in June 2022 exceeded the June 2019 volumes by a
robust 23.7%, benefitting from the tariff and non-tariff measures that had
been undertaken in Aug 2020 to boost the rail operations.
▪ Domestic airlines’ passenger traffic recorded a sequential dip of ~13% to
10.5 million in June 2022 (as per ICRA’s estimates), trailing the June 2019
level (12.1 million) by ~12%.
▪ A muted base related to the severe impact of the Covid 2.0 wave and curbs
on domestic air travel translated to an optically high YoY growth of ~239%
in June 2022 (+471.2% in May 2022).
▪ Recovery in corporate travel and steady demand from leisure traffic are
likely to support passenger traffic in FY2023; nevertheless, any further
Covid waves and a rise in air fares remain key monitorables.
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Diverging MoM trend in petrol and diesel consumption in June 2022, with rise in
latter stemming from agri demand, higher purchases from bulk buyers
Petrol consumption
YoY (%); RHS
Million MT
8.0
Wave 1.0
Wave 2.0
YoY (%)
150%
Wave 3.0
Diesel consumption
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
-100%
Feb-21
-50%
3.0
Oct-20
4.0
Dec-20
0%
Jun-20
50%
5.0
Aug-20
6.0
Apr-20
100%
Feb-20
7.0
Oct-19
YoY (%)
100%
70%
40%
10%
-20%
-50%
-80%
Dec-19
Wave 3.0
Jun-19
Wave 2.0
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Wave 1.0
Aug-19
Million MT
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
EXHIBIT: Trends in diesel consumption
Apr-19
EXHIBIT: Trends in petrol consumption
YoY (%); RHS
Source: PPAC; ICRA Research
Source: PPAC, ICRA Research
▪ Petrol consumption stood at 2.97 million MT in June 2022, a shade below
the all-time high of 3.02 million MT in May 2022. Retail prices have
remained unchanged post the excise duty cut since late-May 2022, which
has supported consumption.
▪ The YoY growth in consumption halved to 23.2% in June 2022 from 51.5%
in the previous month, albeit on a normalised base.
▪ Volumes in June 2022 accounted for 112.5% of the pre-Covid sales of June
2019, partly benefitting from the preference for personal mobility.
▪ In contrast, diesel consumption grew by 5.4% MoM to 7.68 million MT in
June 2022, reaching highest ever volumes witnessed in the month of June
amidst steady retail prices.
▪ This may partly be on account of a seasonal pick-up in agricultural demand
as well as bulk buyers shifting their purchases to retail outlets.
▪ Moreover, consumption in June 2022 exceeded its pre-Covid volumes of
June 2019 by 3.0% (after March 2022).
www.icra.in
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16
Non-food bank credit growth outpacing deposit growth in FY2023 so far
EXHIBIT: Trends in bank deposits
YoY (%)
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
EXHIBIT: Trends in non-food bank credit
Wave 1.0
Wave 2.0
YoY (%)
16
Wave 3.0
Wave 1.0
Wave 2.0
Wave 3.0
14
12
10
8
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
Aug-20
Jun-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Dec-19
Oct-19
Aug-19
Jun-19
4
Apr-19
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Oct-19
Dec-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Apr-19
6
Source: RBI, ICRA Research
Source: RBI; ICRA Research
▪ Given foreign capital outflows, the YoY growth in outstanding bank deposits
moderated to a five month low of 8.3% as on June 17, 2022 (+9.3% as on
May 20, 2022; +10.3% as on June 18, 2021).
▪ The incremental deposits in FY2023 till date (as on June 17, 2022) stood at
Rs. 1.0 trillion, considerably lower than the year-ago (Rs. 1.9 trillion as on
June 18, 2021), as well as the FY2021 levels (Rs. 3.0 trillion as on June 19,
2020).
▪ We expect incremental deposit of Rs. 13.0-14.0 trillion in FY2023,
translating to a YoY growth of 7.9-8.5% (+8.9% in FY2022).
▪ In contrast, the YoY growth in outstanding non-food bank credit touched a
three-year high of 13.7% as on June 17, 2022 (+12.6% as on May 20, 2022;
+5.9% as on June 18, 2021), aided by rising working capital requirements
and shift of corporate credit demand from debt capital markets to banks.
▪ Moreover, incremental credit in FY2023 so far (till Jun 17, 2022) stood at
Rs. 2.7 trillion, in contrast with the typical negative trend seen during the
first quarter in past seven years.
▪ ICRA estimates incremental credit to rise to Rs. 12.0-13.0 trillion (+10.1 to
+11.0%) in FY2023, from Rs. 10.5 trillion (+9.7%) in FY2022.
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Mobility for retail and recreation flattened while remaining at elevated levels
EXHIBIT: Trends in mobility for retail and recreation
Covid 1.0:
Nationwide
lockdown
0%
Covid 2.0:
Stringent statewise lockdowns
Unlock 1.0-6.0
(June 1, 2020Nov 31, 2020)
-20%
-40%
-60%
Covid 3.0: Lesser statewise restrictions and
faster relaxations
-80%
Jun-22
May-22
Apr-22
Mar-22
Feb-22
Jan-22
Dec-21
Nov-21
Oct-21
Sep-21
Aug-21
Jul-21
Jun-21
May-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
-100%
Mar-20
Seven day moving average of %
change from baseline period
20%
Data is available up to July 8, 2022; The percentage change is compared to a baseline value for the same day of the week, Baseline period: Jan 3, 2020- Feb 6, 2020; Source: CEIC; ICRA Research
▪ The mobility for retail and recreation was 5.3% above the baseline level at end-June 2022 (seven-day moving average), mildly lower than the trends seen at
end-May 2022 (+8.9%), end-April 2022 (+9.4%) as well as at end-March 2022 (+9.1%). Subsequently, it has rebounded to 7.6% as on July 8, 2022.
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18
Early data for July 2022 weak
EXHIBIT: Daily average vehicle registrations at all-India level
EXHIBIT: Electricity Demand at all-India level
▪ The data provided on the Vahan portal reveals that the average daily
vehicle registrations during July 1-18, 2022 stood at a 13-month low of
43.3k units, trailing the previous month and year-ago levels by 15.9% and
14.2%, respectively.
▪ Vehicle registrations typically pick up pace in the second half of the month.
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Oct-19
Dec-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
May-22
Feb-22
Nov-21
Aug-21
May-21
Feb-21
Nov-20
Aug-20
May-20
Feb-20
Nov-19
Aug-19
May-19
*Till July 18, 2022; Note: Vahan portal does not cover the vehicle registration data for Madhya
Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana; Source: Vahan, MoRTH; CEIC; ICRA Research
Apr-19
YoY (%)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
‘000 units
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
*Till July 17, 2022; Source: POSOCO; IEX; ICRA Research
▪ After 16 months of successive growth, all-India electricity demand has
recorded a YoY contraction in July 2022 so far, albeit a mild 1.3% till July 17,
2022.
▪ This reflects a combination of high base effect as well as advancement of
South-west monsoon rains in certain parts of the country which partly
eased the demand from elevated levels seen in the recent months.
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19
Fuel sales dipped sequentially in early-July 2022 following revival of monsoon rains
%
EXHIBIT: Sales of Petrol and Diesel during July 1-15, 2022 by state fuel refiners
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
27.0
23.3
-7.8
-13.7
Petrol
Diesel
YoY
MoM
Source: ICRA Research
▪ Sales of petrol and diesel contracted by 7.8% and 13.7%, respectively, in July 1-15, 2022, over the corresponding period in June 2022, as per the preliminary
data released by state refiners. This appears to be largely on account of the revival of monsoon rains, which impacted fuel consumption and affected mobility.
▪ In YoY terms, sales of petrol and diesel recorded a substantial YoY expansion of 23.3% and 27.0%, respectively, in the first two weeks of July 2022, on a
continuing low base.
www.icra.in
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Annexure A.1: ICRA Business Activity Monitor
The ICRA Business Activity Monitor- an index of high frequency economic indicators, is a composite indicator that gauges economic activity each month. While
several high frequency indicators are released every month, each of these provides insights on the performance of a select segment of the economy. It is possible
to appraise trends in each of these indicators and provide a qualitative assessment of the overall state of the economy. However, such an evaluation is fraught
with challenges, especially when indicators display contradictory trends or point to multi-speed expansions/contractions. The Business Activity Monitor aims to
overcome this contention by providing a summary measure of the state of the economy by integrating multiple high frequency indicators into a single index.
The ICRA Business Activity Monitor is constructed using 14 monthly high frequency indicators – auto production (comprising passenger vehicle, motorcycle and
scooter production clubbed into a single indicator), output of Coal India Limited, electricity generation, non-oil merchandise exports, rail freight traffic, ports
cargo traffic, non-food bank credit of scheduled commercial banks, bank deposits, vehicle registrations, generation of GST e-way bills, domestic airlines’
passenger traffic, petrol consumption, diesel consumption and steel consumption. Each of these indicators are indexed such that the average index value for the
base year FY2019 amounts to 100. The ICRA Business Activity Monitor is computed by taking the mean of the index values of these 14 indicators.
The ICRA Business Activity Monitor gives us the net direction of our 14 high frequency indicators and can be used to assess economic conditions across time
periods. For instance, an increase in the value of the index to 118.4 in May 2022 from 116.0 in April 2022, signifies that the economic activity has improved in
May 2022 relative to April 2022. Moreover, the activity in May 2022 (118.4) is 12.0% higher than the pre-Covid level in May 2019 (105.7).
While summary measures of economic activity such as the GDP and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) are released by the Government, these are available
with relatively longer lags. The GDP data is available for a quarterly or higher frequency and is released with a lag of two months post the end of the quarter.
Although IIP data is available on a monthly basis, it is released with a lag of around six weeks post the end of the month (Eg. IIP for May 2022 was released on 12th
July 2022). However, the IIP by design excludes the services sector. Since the ICRA Business Activity Monitor is based on a variety of high frequency indicators, it
is released with a lag of two weeks (Eg. Business Activity Monitor for May 2022 is available by mid-June 2022), thereby enabling a faster assessment of economic
activity in the immediately preceding month.
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21
Annexure A.2: ICRA Business Activity Monitor
EXHIBIT: Deviation in YoY growth between ICRA Business Activity Monitor
and IIP
Source: ICRA Research
May-22
Mar-22
Jan-22
Nov-21
Sep-21
Jul-21
May-21
Mar-21
Jan-21
Nov-20
Sep-20
Jul-20
May-20
Mar-20
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
May-22
Mar-22
Jan-22
Sep-21
Jul-21
May-21
Mar-21
Nov-21
IIP
-40
May-19
ICRA Economic Activity Index
Jan-21
Nov-20
Sep-20
Jul-20
-30
May-20
-20
-60
Mar-20
-10
-20
Jan-20
0
20
Nov-19
10
60
Sep-19
100
Jul-19
(pp)
20
May-19
YoY (%)
140
Jul-19
EXHIBIT: Correlation between YoY trends in ICRA Business Activity Monitor
and IIP
Source: ICRA Research
▪ The IIP is a measure of industrial activity and does not cover the agriculture and services sectors. The ICRA Business Activity Monitor is a broader measure than
the IIP as it also covers some high frequency indicators related to the services sector (measures of mobility such as airlines passenger traffic and petrol
consumption and financial services such as non-bank food credit and bank deposits).
▪ We have observed some degree of correlation between the two (in both absolute and YoY growth terms). The deviation between the growth of the ICRA
Business Activity Monitor and the IIP stood at +/- 2% and +/-5% in 14 and 31, respectively, of the 38 months between April 2019 and May 2022.
▪ Further, the ICRA Business Activity Monitor correctly predicted the YoY growth accelerations and decelerations in the IIP on 29 of the 38 occasions during this
period. The deviations in the YoY growth between the ICRA Business Activity Monitor and the IIP were positive/negative in 23/15 of the 38 months.
www.icra.in
22
22
Annexure A.3: ICRA Business Activity Monitor
ICRA Economic Activity Index
Source: ICRA Research
Mar-22
Dec-21
Sep-21
Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-20
Sep-20
Mar-22
Dec-21
Sep-21
Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Dec-19
Sep-19
Jun-19
-40
Jun-20
0
-20
Mar-20
20
Dec-19
40
(pp)
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
Sep-19
YoY (%)
60
EXHIBIT: Deviation in YoY growth between ICRA Business Activity Monitor
and non-agri non-PADOS GVA
Jun-19
EXHIBIT: Correlation between YoY trends in ICRA Business Activity Monitor
and non-agri non-PADOS GVA
Non-agri non-PADOS GVA
Source: ICRA Research
▪ On the other hand, notwithstanding some coverage of the services sector, the ICRA Business Activity Monitor is a relatively narrower measure of economic
activity compared to the GDP or the Gross Value Added (GVA), which is much more comprehensive in its scope. While the ICRA Business Activity Monitor
provides a good gauges the direction of growth in non-agri non-public administration, defence and other services (PADOS) GVA, the deviation in the growth
rates exceeded +/-1% in 10 of the 13 quarters.
▪ Interestingly, in the period when growth was slowing down (up to Q1 FY2021), there was a negative deviation between the ICRA Business Activity Monitor and
the non-PADOS GVA growth, indicating that the former predicted the downturn but magnified its extent. The opposite is true for the period from Q4 FY2021
onwards.
▪ Since the GVA is a measure of value addition, this could lead to a difference in the magnitude and/or direction of changes between the growth in the GVA and
the ICRA Business Activity Monitor, as the former would be affected by changes in margins of businesses following rising/falling commodity prices or cost
cutting measures.
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23
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Annexure B.1: Volumes of all indicators rose in June 2022 relative to June 2021 - I
EXHIBIT: Trends in Volumes for Last Three Years in May and June (Part -I)
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
May
May
June
June
May
May
June
June
CIL
Port Traffic
CIL Output
Output (Million
(Million Port
Traffic (Million
(Million
tonnes)
tonnes)
tonnes)
tonnes)
May
May
June
June
Finished
Finished steel
steel
consumption
consumption
May
May
June
June
May
May
June
June
Rail
Rail Freight
Freight (Million
(Million Non
Non Food
Food Bank
Bank
tonnes)
Credit
tonnes)
Credit (Rs.
(Rs. Trillion)
Trillion)
FY2021
FY2021
FY2022
FY2022
May
May
June
June
May
May
June
June
May
May
June
June
Bank
Bank Deposits
Deposits (Rs.
(Rs. Non-oil
Non-oil Exports
Exports (100
(100 Petrol
Petrol Consumption
Consumption
Trillion)
Million
('0000
Trillion)
Million USD)
USD)
('0000 Metric
Metric
Tonnes)
Tonnes)
FY2023
FY2023
Source: CIL; Ministry of Commerce, GoI; Indian Railways; Indian Ports Association; JPC; RBI; PPAC; CEIC; ICRA Research
www.icra.in
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24
Annexure B.2: Volumes of all indicators rose in June 2022 relative to June 2021 - II
EXHIBIT: Trends in Volumes for Last Three Years in May and June (Part -II)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
May
June
May
June
May
June
May
June
May
June
GST e-way bills (in PV Production ('000 Scooter Production Diesel Consumption Domestic Airlines'
lakhs)
units)
('000 units)
('0000 Metric
Passengers ('0000
Tonnes)
persons)
FY2021
FY2022
May
June
Electricity
Generation (100
Million KWH)
May
June
Motorcycle
Production ('000
units)
May
June
Vehicle Registration
('000 units)
FY2023
Source: SIAM; PPAC; CEA; GSTN; DGCA; Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; CEIC; ICRA Research
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Contact Details
Aditi Nayar
Rahul Agrawal
Yash Panjrath
Chief Economist
Senior Economist
Economist
aditin@icraindia.com
rahul.agrawal@icraindia.com
yash.panjrath@icraindia.com
0124 4545 385
022 6169 3353
0124 4545 399
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Contact Details
Aarzoo Pahwa
Tiasha Chakraborty
Senior Associate Economist
Associate Economist
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0124 4545 835
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Executive Vice-President
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Head Media & Communications
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communications@icraindia.com
022- 6114 3406
080 – 4332 6401
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