1.0 Introduction
To say the year 2020 will be etched in history as the year that re-defined normality, is an
understatement. Not only had it made us rethink how we live our lives, but also it made industries
around the world re-evaluate their business strategies. Arguably, the most heavily affected
industry is aviation. April 2020 saw the lowest point of the industry in terms of air traffic. Two thirds
of the world’s fleet was grounded, 90% of flight operations has been halted, and international
operations saw a decline of 98% (Garrow & Lurkin, 2021). However, it is naive to say that COVID19 is the only contributor to aviation’s temporary downfall. One must dive further into the inner
workings of the aviation industry to truly understand the organisational structure of different
entities, be it airlines, manufacturers or maintenance, repair and overhaul centers, and how these
structures can better shape the organisation in preparation of what’s to come. Hence, the purpose
of this article is to identify the key challenges and potential opportunities regarding managing
organisations in aviation, by using horizon scanning, in particular the PESTLE model.
2.0 Horizon Scanning
The PESTLE model was used in the horizon scanning, over 3 individual years, 2021, 2024, and
2034.
Political challenges (see appendix A) include due to passing of new legislations by governments
on airlines. This requires organisations to adjust their business models in accordance with said
legislations, which will increase operating costs and reduce profit margins. Other challenges
include potential political instability in countries, creating difficulties in managing people and
organisation in and around said instabilities. Such scenarios have already been witnessed during
the Arab Spring protest in 2010, which affected air traffic volume in North Africa and Levant
(Button et al, 2015). Potential global trade war is also a risk towards air transport (IATA Economics,
2018).
Economic challenges (see appendix B) include global economic decline due to the COVID-19
pandemic, where recovery will take years. This causes organisations to impose pay cuts or
retrenchment to maintain businesses sustainability, affecting employees’ morale. Other
challenges include competition from emerging low-cost carriers, paired with more educated
spending habits in new consumers (Lobaugh et al, 2019), creating organisational unsettlement
as companies adapt to survive. Economic instability of the industry will also deter younger
generation of workforce, creating obstacles in managing personnel.
Social challenges (see appendix C) include change of consumer behavior towards higher air
travel cost post-pandemic as airlines seek to recover operational profits. New generation of
consumers require more entitlement and demands for their purchases as spending habits become
more value orientated. Hence major restructuring of organisational principles is needed to cater
for consumer needs. Retirement of older generation workforce create difficulties for organisations
to fill the void left behind. Potential terrorism and pandemic threat create challenges where
organisations require contingency plans.
Technological challenges (see appendix D) include technological advancements automating a
variety of conventional jobs, creating organisational anxiety on employee’s job security. Evolving
virtual meeting platforms makes business travel dormant, requiring airlines to change their
operating model to survive. Rise of cyber-crime threats require better Corporate Social
Responsibility (CSR) from organisations to educate consumers on cyber security (Tarabasz,
2017).
Legal challenges (see appendix E) include new regulations limiting passenger count on
passenger flights and regulating flight/cabin crew operations. Such changes may unsettle
organisations to some degree and increase operational costs. New environmental legislations
create a challenge for many organisations, that requires increased incorporation of environmental
concerns into organisation’s CSR, which is vital in strategic planning of an organisation
(Battacharya et al, 2008)
Environmental challenges (see appendix F) include increasing environmental impact of the
industry, also affecting CSR of the organisation. This creates difficulties in managing
organisations as new generation of employees prefer to be employed by companies that are
attentive to CSR values (Harvey et al, 2010). Consumers are also growing more environmentally
conscious, as three in five consumers believe environmental sustainability of companies is
becoming more important (Mastercard, 2021), hence managing organisational models to adapt
will be difficult.
3.0 Strategic Management of People
3.1 2021 Challenges and Opportunities
The pandemic has changed business principles for aviation organisations (Smet et al, 2020).
Conventional face-to-face dealings are overruled as the new motto of organisations is speed.
Being quick to make business decisions in aviation’s ever-changing environment is important.
This means shorter meetings where only key personnel are present. Non-critical business
decisions will be delegated amongst mid-level employees, exposing them to the process of
making business decisions, and learning to take responsibility for it. This ties to Branden’s Six
Pillars of Self-Esteem. Allowing employees to make business decisions gives them a sense of
responsibility for their actions towards the organisation’s objectives. Paired with other pillars of
self-esteem, organisations may discover talents which would have remain hidden otherwise.
Figure 1
Branden’s Six Pillars of Self-Esteem
Note. This figure shows Branden’s Six Pillars of Self-Esteem. Adapted from “The Six Pillars of
Self-Esteem”, by Nathaniel Branden, 1995, Bantam Book. Copyright 1995 by Nathaniel Branden.
As air travel recovers, organisations need to re-qualify employees who have been inactive for
long periods of time. The pandemic has limit travelling opportunities for trainers and learners,
making conventional face-to-face trainings difficult. Organisations may modify training programs
to utilize virtual classrooms, allowing tutors and students to connect from anywhere in the world
and is less time-consuming after discounting travelling time and costs (Alhat, 2020). Use of AR
and VR for training is also an opportunity. VR/AR usage in safety trainings has shown to improve
learners’ skills in recognising hazards (Brown et al, 2021).
3.2 2024 Challenges and Opportunities
2024 will allow organisations to identify employees who are potential future leaders, based on
their decision-making skills as discussed earlier. Training or coaching programs is important to
further groom these employees into valuable assets for the organisation. An example of such
program is the Operations Leadership Program (OLP) offered by Raytheon Technologies
Corporation, RTC (Operations Leadership Program job, 2018). The OLP places talents across
multiple functions within RTC’s different business units, exposing candidates in developing
business strategies and managements skills. Graduates will be able to lead organisations and
see success opportunities even during challenging times.
With environmental sustainability being a crucial part of CSR, organisations need to manage
employees in adapting more eco-friendly ways of working. Emphasizing this importance are
millennials (who make up a large part of the global workforce) who will make salary sacrifices in
exchange for employment with organisations that have good environmental practices (Drayson,
2015). Thus, businesses with poor environmental practices can negatively affect employee’s
working satisfaction. To fix this, organisations can employ “green-collar workers”, which are
individuals with environmental passion and interest, essentially environmentalists (Harvey et al,
2010). By promoting an environmentally sustainable workplace, employees will be more
environmentally conscious. Furthermore, working morale of employees who are more sensitive
to CSR is boosted, as their belief in the organisation’s environmental direction are met positively.
3.3 2034 Challenges and Opportunities
2034 will see organisations adopt leaner operating structure. Mid-level management will be
removed, encouraging synergy between upper management and general employees. Hence,
effective succession planning within the organisation is important for business continuity. This
requires human resources to identify potential candidates, whether it be new-hires or internal
candidates. The latter demands continuous learning for the employee with up-to-date business
management skills. This can be done via setting up of a Learning and Development center, where
employees can access learning programs catered to improve hard and soft skills.
Evolving technology may cause traditional blue-collar jobs to be fully automated. It is important
that organisations prepare employees to be more technologically skilled in order to remain
competitive. Leaders must plan for investments towards employees’ development in preparation
for the quickly evolving industry. Leaders themselves should be well versed digitally as technology
and digital skills in leadership will be the way forward. The topic of leadership in a digital world
have gained more interest over the years. (Cortellazzo et al, 2019).
Figure 2
Growth of articles on leadership and digitalisation
Note. This table shows the number of papers discussing leadership and digitalisation, from
1963 to 2018. From “The Role of Leadership in a Digitalised World: A Review”, by
Cortellazo. L, Bruni. E, & Zampieri. R, 2019, Frontiers of Psychology. Copyright 2019 by
Frontiers of Psychology.
Conventional job-specific skills training will also be important, as older generation of workforce
enter retirement. Younger generation of workforce will need formal training, especially for those
involved in manual hand-skill works. A new learning concept that can be explored is “gamification
training”, which uses elements of gaming in formal training (Gentry et al, 2019). Gamification
allows learners to be involved in active learning, solving clinical problems, and gaining experience
in risk-free surroundings (Min et al, 2022). Concept of gamification training have already gained
attention in the medical field, aviation should pick it up as well, considering its advantages.
4.0 Managing Change and Performance
4.1 2021 Challenges and Opportunities
The pandemic has forced aviation to function with one hand tied behind its back. With reduced
air traffic, falling profits and maintaining operational costs do not fit in the same equation. Costs
must be cut somewhere, for many organisations it means pay cuts or retrenchments. As of July
2020, around 400,000 airline workers have taken pay cuts or faced retrenchments (Kotoky et al,
2020). Such activities bring immense change to organisations and leaders are responsible in
managing such changes to prevent drastic fall in organisational stability.
Employees who kept their jobs, will face emotional unsettledness, either saddened by the
departure of their colleagues, or fearful for their own job security. Such emotions, along with
leadership methods and level of trust in leaders are rudimentary components for the success of
any organisational change (Agote, 2016). Emotions can emerge more often and stronger during
organisational change than in stagnation (Kiefer, 2002), due to unpredictability of the outcome,
making employees feel exposed. It is important that leaders gain trust of employees, ensuring
that such changes are for the organisation’s survival, and is merely done as a last resort. Trust is
important for employees to thrive towards a common objective (Dirks, 2000), as management by
a trusted leader can be met with positive emotions. Leaders can adopt Authentic Leadership
(Walumba et al, 2008) and Paternalistic Leadership (Farh & Cheng, 2000) methods for gaining
trust. Authentic Leadership involves engaging with employees and being transparent for critical
business information, while Paternalistic Leadership involves leaders showing concerns over
employees’ wellbeing and providing necessary support.
4.2 2024 Challenges and Opportunities
Organisations are predicted to continue the concept of remote working, either via working from
home or hybrid working patterns. This is mirrored in other industries too, proving that digital
workspace is the way to go. This requires substantial change in an organisation’s business model,
magnified by the fact that digital workspace may prove difficult for non-tech savvy employees and
employees who find on-site working to be more productive. Some even perceive digital workspace
negatively, as they transform job requirements drastically (Cortellazzo et al, 2019).
A leader’s role in guiding employees though this digital change is crucial. Like Paternalistic
Leadership, leaders may adopt people-oriented leadership behavior (Weber et al, 2022), showing
their concern for employee’s well-being during this journey. With introduction of new technologies,
leaders must compose strategies as a learning path for employees to adapt digitalisation. Such
path must be realistic enough to ensure its achievability. Technical support and mentoring should
also be readily available when needed. Most importantly, leader’s must have integrity and
commitment for their business decisions on this matter, which empowers employees to believe
the digital journey is truly needed.
As organisations adopt leaner business models, organisations’ operational change will cause
instability. Employees’ job scope is expanded beyond what was expected, greatly affecting
working morale. Sufficient trainings and workshops should be provided, and higher involvement
of employees in cross-functional projects can ease employees’ transition into this new role.
4.3 2034 Challenges and Opportunities
With tightened regulations and higher bargaining power of consumers, organisations struggle to
stay profitable. Brandenburger & Nalebuff’s (1996) concept of coopetition may be adopted by
more organisations to remain competitive. Coopetition refers to simultaneous cooperation and
competition between industry rivals. However, such relationship brings abrupt changes to both
organisations as each have different principles and cultures, which affects the alliance’s
performance.
Leaders of both organisations must adopt procedural strategising practices (Tidström et al, 2017)
to agree on how joint products and results are created and shared respectively. This is important
in establishing trust between both parties. (Celutch et al, 2011) states that conflict and trust must
co-exist for such relationships to prosper. Although usually viewed negatively, a healthy amount
of conflict shows members of both parties are committed in the success of the alliance, and
ultimately better business decisions can be made collectively. Strategic allocation of resources
and skills across both organisations can also help bridge the cultural and operational differences
between both parties.
Projects will be mainly executed by small, specialized teams to ensure maximum efficiency. This
poses a challenge as high-level leaders don’t have direct supervision over said teams, creating
difficulties in managing individual performances. Leaders may adopt the “Simple Structure” from
Mintzberg’s Five Organisational Structures (Mintzberg, 1992). Mintzberg elaborates such
structure uses direct supervision, with emphasis on the Strategic Apex. This structure requires
working teams to be small, with its direct supervisor being (preferably) technically knowledgeable
in the nature of the project.
Figure 3
The key parts of an organisation
Note. This figure shows the model of Mintzberg’s Structures in 5s. From “Organisational Structure:
Mintzberg’s Framework”, by Lunenberg, C, 2012, International Journal of Scholarly, Intellectual
Diversity. Copyright 2019 by Fred C. Lunenburg.
5.0 Self Reflection
From the horizon scanning, it is obvious that organisational structures and business models are
expected to change heavily from 2021 to 2034. Likewise, employees and leaders will have to
adapt accordingly to the industry’s changes to maintain employability and stay relevant to the
times. Traditional working behaviors will have to be revamped, and organisations must provide
appropriate support and training for employees to do so.
From an individual point of view, employees no longer have the privilege to just “stick to what they
do best”. The industry is moving towards a leaner organisational structure, where employees’ job
scope is expected to expand beyond their academic or professional qualification. Also, execution
of projects will be done by small cross-functional teams, where individual talents and its
management is crucial for success. Employees (including leaders) must be more self-driven in
self development and taking responsibility for their own progress. (Pedler, 1988) stressed that it
is the learners who have full responsibility for over their personal learning objectives, along with
the means of achieving it. It is also important that employees understand their individual learning
styles to get the most out of the developments process.
When using Bandura’s (1977) model of self-efficacy, employees are responsible for monitoring
the performance outcomes of their development. Employees must be able to evaluate if
development efforts are successful in equipping them with skills to tackle the new working world.
Vicarious experience/learning is also important, where employees must have appropriate role
model whom they can draw inspiration from. The sense of seeing another individual succeed in
self improvement can motivate ourselves into believing that we have the capability to do so too.
Figure 4
The components of self-efficacy
Note. This figure shows Bandura’s model of self-efficacy. Adapted from “Self-efficacy: Toward a
Unifying Theory of Behavioral Change”, by Albert Bandura, 1977, Psychological Review.
Copyright 1995 by Albert Bandura
From an organisational point of view, leaders must provide employees with the right infrastructure
for self-development. Firstly, leaders must prepare a succession plan, where employees may
know what their potentials are and which position they are expected to hold in the near future.
Job rotations can also help employees gain exposure on other aspects of the business they are
foreign to. Leader should also provide continuous feedback and encouragement towards
employee’s progress. This ties to Verbal Persuasion in Bandura’s model, where employee’s self-
efficacy can be influenced by encouragement or discouragement (Al-Jammal, 2016), primarily
from respected leaders. Leaders should also be aware of employee’s physiological feedback,
showing concern over emotional changes resulting from self-development activities. This also ties
with Farh and Cheng’s (2000) concept of Paternalistic Leadership mentioned earlier.
As leaders are tasked with steering organisations to success, it is important that leaders have
good self-awareness and self-development abilities (Goleman et al, 2002, p. 40) states that “a
deep understanding of one’s emotions, as well as one’s strength and limitations and one’s values
and motives” is necessary for self-awareness. “The cultivates self is a leader’s greatest tool” as
mentioned by Senge et al (2004, p. 186), who also states that understanding oneself is necessary
in becoming a leader.
Leaders who are self-aware can fully understand their core principles, which translates to heathier
interaction with employees. Self-aware leaders will also fully understand not only their strength
and weaknesses, but those of their employees as well, which result in realistic levels of
expectations over the team. (Bass, 1990, p. 20) states that transformational leaders will “broaden
and elevate the interests of their employees when they generate awareness and acceptance of
the purposes and mission of the group, and when they stir their employees to look beyond their
own self-interest for the good of the group”. In this context, employees have reported higher levels
of satisfaction when leaders underestimate transformational leadership (lower level of agreement
between employees and leaders on their transformational leadership) compared when leaders
overestimate it (Moshavi et al, 2003). This is likely due to that underestimators (leaders who
underestimate their transformational leadership) will be less assured about their abilities to fulfill
employees’ expectations and will strive harder in meeting them. As a result, employees will view
their leader’s efforts positively (Moshavi et al, 2003).
A useful model for self-awareness is found in Scharmer’s (2016) work, where he studies on the
process of self-reflection and utilising it for the benefit of the organisation. The left side of
Scharmer’s model is about observation and collecting feedback and judgements pertaining to
one’s behavior and decision. At the bottom of the model is Presencing, we reflect on our past
experiences and knowledge, letting go of things that are not important, and inviting what are our
highest future possibility. This stage requires us to be open minded, open hearted, and open
willed in approaching any situation. Finally, the right side of the model is where we bring forth all
our learnings and reflection with us, allowing us to operate at a higher level of performance.
Figure 5
Scharmer’s Theory U model
Note. This figure shows Scharmer’s Theory U model. From “Theory U”, by Center for Human
Emergence, n.d. Copyright 2016 by Center for Human Emergence.
Leadership development is essential for leaders to continually improve their leadership skills and
to build a more stable organisation. However, recent years have seen a transition from
organisational leadership development programs to self-development programs, as conventional
programs are costly and yielded unsatisfactory results (Jiang et al, 2020). Therefore, selfdevelopment can be described as the process of developing ourselves where the key motivator
is our own initiative, so that “people are leading their own careers, exploring what they want to do,
and making their own choices” (Moldoveanu & Narayandas, 2019).
Conventional leadership development program can only provide leaders generic means of
executing a task, it will be up to self-development where leaders can reflect on their surroundings,
and make key decisions based on what it needed at the time. Future leaders will be supervising
more diverse teams in the future, and the first step in doing so is accepting and recognising these
differences, and how it may steer to success. Self-development allows leaders to make the most
out of what is currently presented to them and create opportunities for success. Leaders who
undergo self-development will not only be trained on how to help the organisation in achieving
success, but also learn to maintain spirit and emotions of their teams while doing so.
Reflecting upon personal experience, I was recently tasked to lead a project to digitalize Quality
Notification for my organisation. Quality Notification is the process of capturing data for defective
parts in Systems, Applications, and Products (SAP) and providing the disposition whether they
are repairable or should be scrapped. The solution we were given for this project is a product
called ATS Inspect, provided by Applied Tech Systems Singapore. ATS Inspect moves away from
conventional paperwork and manual labor and incorporates digitalisation into our manufacturing
process.
Usage of this digital platform is the first in our global enterprise, technical know-hows on the
platform are practically zero. Using VARK’s personality test, I discovered majority of my peers
tend to learn better using kinesthetic and auditory method. The former promotes learning through
direct hands-on experience, while the later promotes learning via listening to audible information.
With this knowledge, I arranged online training sessions with the solutions provider for the team,
where the sessions would include hands-on usage on the software. This way, the team can
experience the product first-handedly, while the solutions provider is available to provide visual
and aural guidance.
As the team entered the phase of specifying the software and implementation across the
organisation, I realised the team was running behind schedule. Our progress was hindered by
continuous setbacks which in hindsight would have been easily avoidable. As I reflected on the
human side of the project, I realised I may not have distributed tasks according to individual team
members’ traits. Using Belbin’s model on team roles, I should have taken note of individual
personality of each member and assigned certain elements of the project according to it. I was
assigning budgetary proposal tasks to a “Specialist”, and cross-functional relation tasks to a
“Shaper”. Although both individuals can execute the job given, it would improve the team’s
performance if they had been given tasks that cater to their strengths. Looking back, I realised
the success of team-based projects do not rely solely on technical abilities of the team, but how
well do the assigned tasks relate to individual behavior and attributes.
Figure 6
Belbin’s Team Role model
Note. This figure shows Belbin’s Team Role model. From “Using Belbin Team Roles to create
inclusive teams”, by Marie Tseng, 2021. Copyright 2021 by Marie Tseng.
6.0 Conclusion
For an industry as volatile as aviation, effective leadership skills are vital in guiding organisations
to success. Leaders must be able to capture the changes demanded by the industry and ensure
such changes do not affect employees’ ability to perform. Self-awareness is also important for
leaders to reflect and judge if their decisions align with the company’s goals. Organisational
success does not solely depend on leaders’ capabilities, but leaders must have the full support of
the organisation, which may come in the form of development programs or empowerment of their
decisions. To summarise, strategic human resource management plays a key role in in managing
the people aspects of the organisation, ensuring employees contribute to the organisation, and
organisations fulfilling the people’s needs.