ISSN 1068-3739, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2022, Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 41–49. Ó Allerton Press, Inc., 2022.
Russian Text Ó The Author(s), 2022, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2022, No. 1, pp. 59–71.
Climate Change Impacts on Bioproductivity
of Terrestrial Ecosystems
in the Belarusian-Ukrainian Polesie Region
S. A. Lysenkoa*, V. F. Loginova, and P. O. Zaikoa
a
Institute for Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, ul. Skoriny 10,
Minsk, 220114 Belarus
*e-mail: lysenko.nature@gmail.com
Received February 4, 2021
Revised April 19, 2021
Accepted July 29, 2021
Abstract—The influence of interannual and long-term climate change impacts on net primary
production (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems in the central part of the Belarusian-Ukrainian Polesie region
(50.7°–53° N, 25.5°–31.5° E) are investigated using satellite observations and reanalysis data. The results
show that nowadays Polesie belongs to the zone of excessive heat and solar radiation resources and
insufficient moisture resources. The interannual variations in NPP in Polesie are 2–3 times higher than
in the other parts of Eastern Europe. Climate change in the recent 50 years led to the reduction of the
total carbon stock in the vegetation cover of the region (at the rate of ~750000 t/year). However, a
number of natural and anthropogenic processes not related to the climate compensate the climate-related carbon loss in the terrestrial biomass. Moreover, these processes cause a slow growth of carbon at
the rate of 140000 t/year in the region.
DOI: 10.3103/S1068373922010058
Keywords: Climate change, terrestrial ecosystems, bioproductivity, net primary production, Polesie
INTRODUCTION
The increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and climate change inevitably lead to changes in the species diversity and bioproductivity of terrestrial ecosystems. The biospheric effect of the CO2 concentration increase in the air is the intensification of the plant photosynthesis and generally favors a growth of total aboveground biomass [17, 24]. The global warming manifested at the regional
level in the change in the growing season length, heat and moisture conditions in the region can have both
stimulating and depressing effects on the plant growth. The joint biospheric effect of the mentioned factors
depends on the features of local climate, physical and chemical characteristics of soil and vegetation cover
[1, 7, 9, 13, 14, 23].
According to the theory of global warming, due to the positive feedback between the temperature and
albedo of the surface, the warming in the northern regions of the globe is faster than in the southern regions,
and winter temperatures grow more quickly than the summer ones [7]. As a result, the difference in the seasonal values of temperature and the temperature contrast between the north and the south decrease. The
growing season length and the total amount of heat available for plants during a year increase, and
agroclimatic zones move from south to north [13, 23]. In mid- and subarctic-latitude terrestrial ecosystems,
as air temperature rises, the portion of thermophilic and drought-resistant plants increases, and boreal species are depressed and move back to the north [21–23].
Synchronously with the increase in the growing season length and availability of heat resources for the
northern ecosystems, negative consequences of climate change begin to be manifested: an increase in the
frequency and duration of hot periods with precipitation deficiency, a growing risk of droughts and
wildfires, a disturbance of the hydrological regime of soil, etc. [12, 15, 23].
Calculations with the CMIP5 global climate models, despite a considerable uncertainty of their climate
projections, on average predict a statistically significant increase in the climate aridity on a global scale for
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all scenarios of the greenhouse effect evolution at the end of the current century [18], which may have negative consequences for forestry and agriculture in some regions.
The objective of the present paper is to study the impacts of modern climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in the Belarusian-Ukrainian Polesie region. This region was subjected to the large-scale amelioration in the 1960s–1970s, that caused a significant transformation of its natural environment. In the recent
years, Polesie especially acutely feels the effects of adverse climate change [4]. Frequent droughts and long
heat waves lead to the reduced soil moisture, river shallowing, systematic groundwater level drop, mass
drying of forests, and significant loss of crop yields [4–6].
Under the influence of the large-scale drying of the territory of Polesie and against a background of
global warming, essential changes occur in the productivity and species diversity of local plant communities. Many boreal plant species are depressed, their habitat is reduced, and they are replaced by new plants
from woody savannas and savannas [8]. Along with the climate, the development of flora and the formation
of phytocenoses in Polesie are considerably affected by human economic activity. In particular, a change or
a termination of the economic use of land, as a rule, leads to the intensification of herbage, overgrowth of
shrubs and trees, and, as a result, to a change in the vegetation cover.
The present paper for the first time provides quantitative estimates of the impact of variability and
long-period changes in the climatic parameters (air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture) on the net primary production (NPP) of the vegetation cover in Polesie. The NPP trends related to the
climate change and the impact of non-climatic factors in Polesie are mapped. Hereinafter, NPP is the annual
amount of carbon assimilated by green plants from the atmosphere per 1 m2 of the underlying surface as a
result of photosynthesis minus the loss for respiration and maintenance of biomass.
The paper consists of three sections. The first section provides a brief description of data and methods.
The second section presents the results of calculating the linear trend and standard deviation of the annual
NPP on the territory of Eastern Europe for the recent two decades. Here, Polesie region stands out clearly: it
is located within 50.7°–53° N, 25.5°–31.5° E, the values of the standard deviation here are several times
higher than the means for Eastern Europe. This indicates a particular vulnerability of this region to climate
change. The third section presents the analysis of spatial distributions of the coefficients of correlation
between NPP and the climatic characteristics, which allow detecting zones with the excess or lack of heat,
moisture, and solar radiation for local plant communities. Based on the revealed correlations and trends in
the climatic characteristics, the climate-related trend in NPP for the territory of Eastern Europe and the
residual trend associated with the human economic activity and the impact of non-climatic factors were
computed.
DATA AND METHODS
The interannual variability and long-period changes in NPP on the territory of Eastern Europe were analyzed using an empirical model of annual NPP for different plant biomes that is based on MODIS/Terra
satellite instrument data [16]. The model implies that the rate of carbon accumulation in biogeocenoses is
proportional to solar radiation absorbed by them in the photosynthetically active wavelength range of
0.4–0.7 mm (APAR, Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation). To convert APAR into the biogenic
carbon increment, the empirical coefficients of efficiency of the radiation transformation by plants e
(kg/MJ) were taken. They depend on the type of vegetation cover and temperature-humidity conditions of
its growth. When calculating the average annual NPP, the respiration of green phytomass, trunks and roots
of plants, as well as the dependence of their respiration function on temperature are taken into account. The
model utilizes ground observations (temperature and saturation deficit) and satellite data: leaf area index
(LAI) and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plants (FPAR). The final model
product (MOD17A2H), namely, the maps of average annual NPP with a spatial resolution of 500 m is
available to the public for the period from 2001 to 2019.
The MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) product based on the annual observations of the MODIS
instrument from the Terra and Aqua satellite platforms was used to classify the vegetation cover types
within he analyzed region. This product is disseminated in the same cartographic projection (sinusoidal)
and with the same spatial resolution (500 m) as the above MOD17A2H containing data on NPP. It includes
five different schemes for the controlled Earth surface classification, among which the IGBP global plant
classification scheme was chosen. In total, it considers 17 classes of the surface, including 11 classes of natural vegetation, 3 anthropogenic and mosaic land classes, and 3 classes not related to plants.
The spatial distributions of climatic parameters that determine the efficiency of the plant production
process (air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation at the atmosphere base, and productive moisture
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reserves) were taken from the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis database with a temporal resolution of a month.
Climatic data with an initial resolution of 0.25° in longitude and latitude were linearly interpolated to the
coordinate grid corresponding to the NPP maps.
The influence of variability of the climatic parameters on the bioproductivity of terrestrial ecosystems
was assessed using their interannual variations over the period of 2001 to 2019. For this purpose, the equation of multiple linear regression between the average annual anomalies of the climatic parameters and NPP
with a spatial resolution of 500 m were constructed. The anomalies of all considered parameters were
counted from the linear trends characterizing their systematic change during the analyzed period. It was assumed that the coefficients of linear regression between NPP and the climatic parameters characterize the
sensitivity of NPP to these parameters. The calculations did not consider local extreme weather events (hurricanes, hailstorms, frosts, etc.) not demonstrating a clear tendency toward a change in the frequency of
their occurrence.
The climatic component of the NPP trend was computed using the trends in the climatic parameters and
predetermined sensitivities of NPP to these parameters. The contribution of other factors to the systematic
bioproductivity change was estimated by subtracting climate-related components from the observed NPP
trends.
INTERANNUAL AND LONG-TERM CHANGES IN NPP
The spatial distributions of the linear trend and relative standard deviation of NPP for most of Eastern
Europe are presented in Fig. 1. For the whole analyzed region and especially for its high latitudes, the NPP
growth can be noted, that is probably associated both with the CO2 growth in the atmosphere and with an
increase in the growing season length and heat supply. In particular, in 1976 to 2019 the annual sum of active average daily temperatures (>10°C) in the Republic of Belarus increased by 590°C [4, 5]. The average
northward speed of the isolines of the annual sum of active temperatures for the recent three decades was
about 12 km/year. The mean growing season length determined from the dates of the stable spring and autumn 5°C air temperature crossing in the recent 20 years was 159 days in the north and 179 days in the
south of Belarus, while it varied within 149–165 days during the base climatic period.
The observed climate warming trends generally improve agrometeorological conditions in the northern
regions, where the main factor limiting the productivity of plant communities is the lack of heat. At the
same time, the regions with the negative or zero bioproductivity increment are distinguished on the NPP
trend map (Fig. 1a), which may be associated both with regional features of climate change and with
anthropogenic factors. Special attention should be given to Polesie region located within 50.7°–53° N,
25.5°–31.5° E (the gray rectangle in Fig. 1b). It includes the physiographic areas of Pripyat, Mozyr, and
Gomel Polesie regions in Belarus and Zhitomir, Kiev, and partly Volyn and Chernigov Polesie regions in
Ukraine. The distinguished area is situated in the central part of the geographic Polesie region; therefore, it
is hereinafter called Central Polesie.
In the 1960s–1970s, Central Polesie was subjected to large-scale amelioration in order to involve
wetlands to agriculture. The amelioration and the subsequent intensive use of this territory in agricultural
production led to the fundamental change in its soil cover, which is currently unstable. The amelioration affected most of the Belarusian part of Central Polesie. There low peatlands prevail which degraded into
sandy soil with low fertility and a low level of environmental sustainability as a result of their agricultural
use. The bog reclamation led to the groundwater level drop, drying of streams and small rivers, which considerably affected the water regime of the entire region [3, 10].
As shown in Fig. 1b, the relative standard deviation of NPP in Central Polesie is 2–3 times higher than in
the rest of Eastern Europe, which indicates a special sensitivity of biogeocenoses in this region to the climate variability. Proceeding from the map of terrestrial biomes MOD17A2H for 2017, it can be concluded
that 98% of the vegetation cover in this region (the rectangle in Fig. 1b) consists of the following biomes:
woody savannas (24.5%), mixed forecasts (23.9%), grasslands (16.4%), croplands (16.1%), savannas
(9.2%), evergreen needle leaf forests (4.8%), deciduous broadleaf forests (3.1%). It should be noted that
such global division of the territory according to the type of its vegetation cover is conditional and requires
concretization for each region. In this case, the “woody savannas” category includes lowland bogs with
mainly wood and shrub vegetation and many abandoned areas, that are currently subjected to afforestation
(for example, peat bogs and deforestation zones). The “savannas” category includes floodplain meadows,
as well as abandoned agricultural lands, where the afforestation has not yet started.
The absolute and relative standard deviations of NPP for these biomes within the study region are given
in Table 1. It is clear that the highest values of both absolute and relative interannual NPP variations are
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Fig. 1. The spatial distributions of (a) the linear trend and (b) relative standard deviation (SD) for the annual net primary
production (g C per 1 m2 of soil).
typical of the territories with the prevalence of wood vegetation. In descending order of interannual NPP
variability, these territories are followed by woody savannas, savannas, grasslands, and croplands. The
most vulnerable species to droughts is hydrophilous broadleaf species, which are biologically weakened
and become unable to withstand frequent droughts due to high evapotranspiration and low groundwater
level on the meliorated territories.
CLIMATE-RELATED CHANGES IN NPP
In order to assess the role of climate in the observed changes in bioproductivity of the vegetation cover,
it is necessary to analyze pair and multiple correlations between NPP and the major climatic parameters,
which determine the efficiency of the plant production process: air temperature, solar radiation flux at the
atmosphere base, amount of precipitation, and soil moisture. The analysis was carried out for the average
annual values of all considered parameters, except for soil moisture, that was averaged over the growing
season (May to September). Linear trends were preliminarily subtracted from the time series of all analyzed
parameters to exclude false correlations.
The spatial distributions of the coefficients of correlation between NPP and the climatic parameters calculated for 2001–2019 are presented in Fig. 2. The positive values of the correlation coefficients indicate
insufficiency of modern heat, moisture, or solar radiation resources for a further increase in NPP on the
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Table 1. The characteristics of interannual and long-term variability of NPP for plant biomes in Central Polesie
Biome
WSA
MF
GRA
CRO
SAV
ENF
DBF
Occupied area,
%
SD, g/m2
Relative SD,
%
Climate-related trend,
g/(m2 year)
24.5
23.9
16.4
16.1
9.2
4.8
3.1
51.1
68.8
36.6
33.9
38.3
60.9
67.6
8.9
11.4
6.7
6.3
6.8
10.2
11.4
–6.2
–9.1
–3.4
–3.4
–4.4
–8.6
–9.0
Residual trend,
g/(m2 year)
8.1
10.8
4.6
3.5
5.9
9.8
10.1
Biomes: WSA is woody savannas; MF is mixed forests; GRA is grasslands; CRO is croplands; SAV is savannas; ENF is
evergreen needle leaf forests; DBF is deciduous broadleaf forests.
given territory, and the negative values indicate the abundance of these resources. The presented distributions clearly show the zones in which the main factors limiting the NPP growth are heat and solar radiation,
as well as the zones where the NPP growth is limited by the moisture resources. The approximate border
between them is 54° N. Central Polesie currently belongs to the zone with abundant heat and solar radiation
resources and insufficient moisture resources.
As clear from Fig. 2a, the temperature optimum of biogeocenoses in Central Polesie has already been
passed. In case of further temperature rise, the biomass respiration processes begin to prevail over photosynthesis, which leads to the suppression of plants and the reduction of their NPP. During the periods of severe droughts, the irrevocable degradation of a part of the vegetation cover, that has low recovery capacity
in modern climate conditions, may occur [2].
The coefficients of pair correlation between NPP and the climatic parameters presented in Fig. 2 provide
information about the direction of NPP changes due to an increase in local heat, moisture, and solar radiation resources. However, the understanding of reasons for modern NPP changes and the forecasting of future NPP variations on a particular territory requires knowing the direction of changes in regional climate
conditions. In view of this, let us consider the maps of linear trends in the climatic parameters for the territory of Europe over the period from 1979 to 2019 (Fig. 3). The dots on the map mark the regions where the
trends are significant at the 1% level according to the standard t-test.
In addition to the everywhere air temperature rise, a rather fast increase in the amount of solar radiation,
a decrease in the average annual balance between the amount of precipitation and evaporation, as well as a
decrease in soil moisture during the growing season are registered on the territory of Europe. An exception
is Scandinavian and some Mediterranean countries, where only one of the analyzed climatic parameters,
namely, air temperature changes statistically significantly.
An increase in the solar radiation flux at the atmosphere base may be associated with the reduced aerosol
emission in European countries and an increased optical transmission of the atmosphere [11, 20]. For the
average trend in the solar radiation flux for the territory of Europe equal to ~0.18 W/(m2 year), the
shortwave component of the Earth surface radiation balance from 1979 to 2019 should have been increased
by 7.2 W/m2. For comparison, the direct forcing of longwave radiation related to the CO2 concentration
growth in the atmosphere for the same years can be estimated at ~1.07 W/m2 [19].
The territory of Central Polesie is within the zone of intensive solar radiation increase (Fig. 3b). Probably, this is why such rapid warming and moistening decrease are registered here and affect the vegetation
cover bioproductivity. This circumstance leads to the conclusion that modern changes in all analyzed climatic parameters result in a decrease in the phytomass stock in the region. Let us consider multiple regressions between NPP and the climatic parameters to quantify the rate of this decrease.
Like before, let us consider only the anomalies of average annual values of NPP and climatic parameters
counted from their linear trends. In addition, taking into account a high correlation between annual total
precipitation and soil moisture, let us use only three climatic predictors in the regressions for NPP: air temperature, amount of precipitation, and downward solar radiation flux at the atmosphere base. The desired
values in these regressions are the coefficients of the predictors, which characterize the NPP sensitivity to
the climatic parameters. They were determined by the least-squares method with a spatial resolution corresponding to the NPP maps (500 m). If these coefficients and linear trends in the climatic parameters are
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Fig. 2. The spatial distributions of the coefficients of correlation between the average annual anomalies (relative to linear
trends) of net primary production and climatic parameters: (a) air temperature, (b) downward solar radiation flux at the atmosphere base, (c) amount of precipitation, (d) soil moisture in the upper 7-cm layer.
known, it is easy to compute the NPP trend caused by the integrated action of these parameters, i.e., the climate-related NPP trend. The residual trend calculated as the difference between the actual and climate-related
NPP trends gives an idea on the processes of vegetation cover biopruductivity changes that are not related
directly to the climate, such as human economic activity, species composition variation, penetration of alien
plant species to the region, etc.
The results of the above calculations are presented in Fig. 4. It is clear that the climate change on the territory of Central Polesie, unlike the rest of Eastern Europe, has a negative effect on the total aboveground
biomass stock. The climate change causes an NPP reduction almost for all vegetation biomes in the study
region. The greatest climate-related NPP trend is registered for woodlands (see Table 1). Probably, it is associated with the presence of the great number of hydrophilous species in their composition, which are not
able to withstand effectively the increasing climate aridity.
Thus, Central Polesie is the most sensitive region of Eastern Europe to climate change. Due to adverse
climate trends, total carbon stock in the vegetation cover in Central Polesie decreases at the rate of
~750000 t/year, while in the rest of Eastern Europe, the climate change generally favors the accumulation
of carbon in the aboveground biomass. Nevertheless, the actual values of NPP in the study region (Fig. 1a)
even in case of the negative impact of the whole set of climatic parameters on the phytomass continue increasing slowly (at the rate of ~140000 t/year). This means that in addition to climate change, other factors
play important roles in the formation of aboveground phytomass in Central Polesie. In particular, they may
include the processes of natural overgrowing and waterlogging of peat hags, anthropogenic recovery of
drained peatlands by re-waterlogging, wider distribution of fast-growing and drought-resistant tree species
in the region, and penetration of alien plant species to the region. Due to these and other processes, total carbon stock on the territory of Central Polesie increases at the rate of 890000 t/year (Fig. 4b), which fully
compensates their climate-related loss (Fig. 1a).
CONCLUSIONS
The central part of Belarusian-Ukrainian Polesie is a unique region in terms of its sensitivity to the
interannual and long-term climate variability. Modern climate and soil conditions in the mentioned region
cause the excessive average annual amount of heat and solar radiation for local biogeocenoses but limit the
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Fig. 3. The distribution of linear trends in (a) average annual air temperature, (b) average annual downward solar radiation
flux at the atmosphere base, (c) difference between annual total precipitation and potential evaporation, and (d) average soil
moisture in the upper 7-cm layer over the growing season on the territory of Europe during 1979–2019.
amount of moisture. The intense air temperature rise and solar radiation increase in Central Polesie and the
decrease in the amount of effective precipitation (minus evaporation) observed in the recent 40 years lead
to the dehydration of the region and the reduction of bioproductivity of local plant communities.
The climate variability in Central Polesie causes variations in net primary production with an amplitude
that is 2–3 times higher than for the rest of Eastern Europe. Long-term climate change leads to the carbon
loss in the vegetation cover of the region at the rate of ~750000 t/year, while the climate change for the rest
of Eastern Europe generally favors the carbon accumulation in the aboveground biomass.
The most vulnerable ecosystems to climate change are forest ones. Many hygrophilous plant species
preserved in the forests of the region after the amelioration are not able to withstand the increasing climate
aridity and irrevocably degrade in the arid years. At the same time, there is an intensive bioproductivity increase for other species that are more adapted to climate change, which extend their habitat. The change in
the species composition of forests along with the overgrowth and waterlogging of abandoned territories
(peat bogs, deforestation zones, etc.) lead to the carbon replenishment in the vegetation cover of Central
Polesie at the rate of ~890000 t/year, which is 140000 t/year higher than the carbon loss in the phytomass
related to climate change.
An increase in the growing season length and heat supply generally improves agrometeorological conditions in northern Belarus, where the lack of heat was considered as the main factor limiting the farming
development until the beginning of modern warming. Currently, the heat resources of the territory of
Belarus are even excessive. The negative correlation between air temperature and net primary production
of biocenoses in southern Belarus points out that a further increase in the growing season heat supply without taking necessary agricultural measures will not already lead to the crop yield growth.
As a result of modern warming, the boundaries of agroclimatic zones in Belarus move in the northern direction at the speed of 12 km/year [5]. At the same time, the level of moistening of the territory of the counRUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
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Fig. 4. The distributions of (a) the climate-related and (b) residual NPP trend.
try decreases. The annual evaporation prevails over precipitation almost on the whole territory of the Brest
and Gomel regions of Belarus [5]. If this tendency continues, absolutely new agroclimatic conditions typical of the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine during the period preceding modern climate warming will be observed in Belarus in 30 years.
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2022