The Hong Kong Polytechnic University School of Accounting and Finance Applied Econometric Methods in Accounting and Finance Research (AF5908) Fall 2020 Instructor Dr. Steven X. Wei Office: Room M708, 7th Floor, Li Ka Shing Tower, PolyU Campus Tel: 2766-7056 Email: afweix@inet.polyu.edu.hk [Please always send your e-mails to this account. I do not check my teaching web E-mail account due to time limitation!] Consultation Hours: TBD (in the first class) Making an appointment for any other time Class Time and Venue Day and Time: Thursday 18:30 – 21:20 Venue: Online teaching with Zoom Description of the Course This course covers basic concepts of econometrics, simple and multiple linear regression models, various issues related to relaxing the assumptions of these models, dummy variables, etc. Least square estimation method and maximum likelihood estimation method will be taught and hypotheses testing techniques will be covered. Asymptotic theory will be briefly introduced. Some advanced regression models, such as Probit/Logit models and censored models will be discussed as well. We focus on those econometric issues encountered in doing empirical research and practical reports. Some theoretical discussions are indispensable though I will certainly try hard to teach the course in an intuitive way. Textbook Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 7th ed., SouthWestern. Some references and other hands-outs will be distributed in class. To learn and work effectively, you are required to form a study group (with 3 - 5 members) to handle the two homework assignments and discuss some “tough issues” you may encounter in class. Please bring a calculator with you to each class [This would be useful to prepare for your mid-term and final exams too]. Course Grading AF5908 Class Participation Two Homework Assignments Take-home exam 10% 40% 50% Overall 100% 1 Note To pass the course, you need to pass both the Continuous Assessment (CA) and the Take-home examination. The passing grade for each of the CA and taking-home exam is 40 (out of 100). If you worry about passing the final exam, please talk to me before mid-October. Tentative Topics Part I. Regression Analysis with Cross-Sectional Data 1. Review of Basic Concepts in Econometrics (Appendices A – C) Descriptive statistics (mean, median, variance, standard deviation, covariance, correlation coefficient), random variable and its distribution (discrete and continuous random variables, probability mass or density function (pf, pmf and pdf), cumulative distribution function (cdf)), commonly-used distributions (uniform, Bernoulli, normal, t-, 2-, and Fdistributions), joint and conditional distributions, independence, estimator and estimate, unbiasedness, consistency and efficiency; law of large numbers (LLN) and central limit theorem (CLT), null (alternative) hypothesis, Type I (Type II) error, significance level, tstatistic, p-value; linear function (intercept and slope), quadratic function, exponential function, (partial) derivative of a function, logarithm, marginal effect, diminishing marginal effect, elasticity. [Please take the first two weeks to study the concepts carefully, if you do not have the background.] 2. The Linear Regression Model (Ch. 2 – Ch.4 ) Dependent and independent variables, disturbance (error term), intercept and slope parameters, population regression function (PRF), sample regression function (SRF), ordinary least squares (OLS), fitted value, residual, R-squared (coefficient of determination), unbiasedness, heteroskedasticity, standard error of regression. Partial effect, multi-collinearity, exogenous and endogenous explanatory variables, misspecification, omitted variable bias, standard error of the regression (SER), the GaussMarkov theorem (BLUE). Null and alternative hypothesis, t-ratio, significancelevel, rejection rule critical value, onetailed test, two-tailed test, statistically significant, economically significant, p-value, confidence interval, F-test. 3. Further Topics with the Linear Regression Model (Ch. 5 – Ch.9 ) Consistency, asymptotic variance, asymptotic t statistics, Largrange multiplier (LM) test, asymptotic efficiency, asymptotic normality, Adjusted R 2, dummy variable, the Chow test, linear probability model, slef-selection problem, heteroskedasticity-robust standard error, Breusch-Pagan test for heteroskedasticity, White test for heteroskedasticity, weighted least squares estimators, feasible GLS, measurement error, Davidson-MacKinnon test, lagged dependent variable, missing data, non-random sample, outlier. AF5908 2 Part II. Regression Analysis with Time Series Data * only talk about when there’s time. 4. Time Series Models (Ch. 10 – Ch.12, Ch.18 )* (How much to cover the topic will depend on the progress of my teaching.) Stochastic process (time series process), finite distributed lag (FDL) model, lag distribution, long-run propensity (LRP) or long-run multiplier, auto-correlation, time trend, seasonality, spurious regression, detrending, stationary process, non-stationary process, moving average MA(q), autoregressive process AR(p), random walk, unit root process, integrated of order d (I(d)), Dickey-Fuller test, first difference, co-integration, error correction model, stochastic trend, Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic, ARCH model Part III. Advanced Topics 5. Instrumental Variables Estimation and Two Stage Least Squares (Ch. 15) Endogeneity problem (omitted variables, errors-in-variables, etc.), Instrumental variables, identification, over-identification, under-identification, reduced form equation, two stage least squares estimator, testing for endogeneity 6. Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models (Ch. 17) Logit/Probit models, specification, latent variable models, ML estimation of Logit/Probit models, hypothesis testing with Logit/Probit models, interpretation of the estimates of the models, pseudo R-squared, Tobit models, interpreting the Tobit estimates, inverse Mills ratio, censored and truncated regression models, self-selection models, sample selection correction 7. Panel Data Models (Ch. 13 – Ch.14 )* (How much to cover the topic will depend on the progress of my teaching.) Two-period panel data analysis, difference-in-differences, fixed effects model, random effects model AF5908 3