Lucid Motors
Quantitative Analysis (Annual) - SHORT
Shares Outstanding = 1.67 B
Comments on Annual Quantitative Analysis
Loss making up until 2025 at least
Very high sales multiple
Putting target at 13 which is -28% drop
Has traded around 13 recently
Quantitative Analysis (Sector Comps)
Comments on Quantitative Analysis Sector Comparison
One of the highest valued based on a sales multiple but also one of the bigger ones (20B+ mkt cap)
Comments on Business
Lucid Group, Inc. manufactures electric vehicles. It designs, develops, and builds energy storage systems
for electric vehicles and supplies automakers with the battery pack system needed to power hybrid, plugin, and electric vehicles. The company was founded in December 2007 and is headquartered in Newark,
CA. The listed name for LCID is Lucid Group, Inc. Common Stock.
KPI’s driving Revenue and Earnings
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Vehicle deliveries
Reservations for cars
Production volume
Prices for car models
Earnings Announcements
Date: 8/4/22 (next)
Last quarter (Q1) (ending 5/4/22) revenue of $57.7 million w/ deliveries of 360 vehicles
Catalysts excluding Earnings
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No news of quick recovery of chip shortage/supply chain issue
General Notes
92% historical, 100% implied
Avg volume 14M
Short int 6.42%, days to cover 7.6
52 week range 13.25 - 57.75
What is your choice of trade structure and why? Include time horizon for trade.
Including earnings on 8/4 with PT of 13
August 18/12 Put Spread for 1.8 (160% max return)
OR back ratio spread,
Sell Jul 22 Put for 4.85
Buy Aug 18 Put for 3.23
In a 1 to 3 ratio