Introduction to Epidemiology: Revision Guide This revision guide has been designed to help revise the basic concepts of the Intro to Epi course. You are welcome to use it to guide your revision process Types of study design Study Design RCT Case-control Cohort Study Ecological Study Cross-sectional Study Details A RCT recruits participants who are then assigned to a control group or an intervention group. The outcome is observed from both groups after the intervention has been completed. A case-control study is a study where researchers observe cases, find non-cases, and then assess previous exposures for both groups. A cohort study is used when assessing population outcomes. Participants are chosen as per predetermined characteristics, such as birth year. An ecological study is focused on multiple populations. There are no individual participants, but comparison is made between entire populations. A cross sectional study sets to examine the prevalence of an outcome at a specific time. Measurements are taken to create a ‘snapshot’ of the data at one point. Example We want to assess whether an antismoking campaign is effective at changing smoking behaviours in individuals. Advantages/disadvantages Good: o Exchangeability on potential outcomes o Highly trained staff o Strictly controlled Bad: o Not representative o Difficult to recruit o Expensive Out of 50 people who have lung cancer, we want to assess how many of them were smokers and how many weren’t. Is smoking an exposure for lung cancer? We want to assess the impact of antismoking messages among different age groups. Participants are characterised by birth year. Good: o Cheap and fast o Good for rare disease o Can calculate RR and IRR Bad: o Selection bias o Recall bias o Confounding bias Good: o Many measures o Reduce recall bias o Show order (XY) Bad: o Large sample sizes o Expensive and long When looking at the effect of smoking on a global scale, we want to assess the prevalence of smoking across populations and their respective death statistics. To evaluate whether an anti-smoking campaign was effective, data regarding smoking behaviour is collected before and after the intervention to compare. Good: o Large-scale comparisons o Monitors global health o Hypothesis generating o Cheap and rapid (if data is available) Bad: o Ecological fallacy 1 Good: o Good for large samples o Prevalence of disease measure o Many variables Bad: o Does not show order o Recall bias Be very clear on what exposure, outcome and a confounder is…. Confounder Outcome Exposure Potential sources of bias (this list is from the Webb & Bain Textbook, which you can access online) Name of bias Definition Example/Detail Confounding When the relationship of Occurs 1st – Characteristic of interest is affected by another the real world because factor. humans live ‘correlated lives’ and behaviours cluster. Selection bias Inappropriate selection of Occurs 2nd – Not a study and comparison groups characteristic of the real world, due to different criteria or but a characteristic of how systemic differences. studies are designed and how the population is sampled. Information bias Occurs due to error in the Occurs 3rd – Not a measurement of the outcome characteristic of the real world or misclassification of and is created by how things participants with respect to are measured. their exposure status or outcome. List of Calculations Case Non-case Total Exposed a b a+b Unexposed c d c+d Total a+c b+d a+b+c+d Disease (D+) No disease (D-) Positive test (T+) T+D+ T+D- Negative test (T-) T-D+ T-D- Name Prevalence Incidence Notes/Formula Cases/Total defined population New cases/Total defined population 2 Example a/a+b+c+d - Risk difference Prevalence Ratio Risk ratio (aka. relative risk) Odds ratio Sensitivity Specificity Positive Predictive Value Negative Predictive Value Outcome among exposed – outcome among unexposed Prevalence among exposed/prevalence among unexposed Incidence among exposed/incidence among unexposed Odds of disease in exposed/odds of disease in unexposed # of positive tests/# of cases # of negative tests/# of non-cases # of cases/# of positive tests # of non-cases/# of negative tests 3 (a/a+b) – (c/c+d) a/c (a/a+b)/(c/c+d) (a/b)/(c/d) T+/D+ T-/DD+/T+ D-/T-