ECON S-1452 Money, Financial Institutions, and Markets Professor: Bruce Watson Harvard University Summer, 2022 bwatson@fas.harvard.edu Class Time: Mondays and Wednesdays, 6:30 – 9:30 Note: This course will be delivered via web conference on the Zoom platform. All web conference lectures will be recorded, and will be available on the course Canvas site throughout the semester. Students may thus view the lectures whenever it is convenient, as many times as they wish. Teaching Assistant: Web Conference Sections: Hashim Zaman Tuesdays 7:30 – 9:30 PM Fridays 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM SYLLABUS This course presents a moderately advanced overview of concepts and techniques in the fields of finance, money, and banking. It examines the agents, instruments, and institutions that make up the financial system of the modern economy, such as bonds, the stock market, derivatives, and the money market, including the role of banks in deposit and credit creation. The course is divided into two halves. The first five lectures are devoted to selected topics in finance and financial markets. Standard concepts and tools of financial analysis are covered, including the risk-return tradeoff (Sharpe ratio), the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), option pricing theory, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and its alternatives, security analysis, and equity valuation. The second half of the course begins with a lecture on one of the largest and most important financial markets—bonds. A related topic, and the subject of the subsequent lecture, is the term structure of interest rates, captured with a graphical device known as the yield curve. Money is the most basic financial asset, and a lecture will be devoted to money and banking, including the structure and function of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. Financial markets don’t exist in isolation from the rest of the economy. Hence, in analyzing fixed income securities and equities, it is important to examine the macroeconomic factors which influence both the stock and bond markets. These factors can be much more significant than elements which relate only to particular companies or even industries. Likewise, monetary and fiscal policies can both have a tremendous impact on markets. All of these topics will be explored in detail. Lastly, the course looks at the international dimension of finance: Foreign exchange markets, global equities markets, and the opportunities and risks that arise from global operations. Publishing or Distributing Course Materials Students may not post, publish, sell, or otherwise publicly distribute course materials without the written permission of the course instructor. Such materials include, but are not limited to, the following: lecture notes, lecture slides, video, or audio recordings, assignments, problem sets, examinations, other students’ work, and answer keys. Students who sell, post, publish, or distribute course materials without written permission, whether for the purposes of soliciting answers or otherwise, may be subject to disciplinary action, up to and including requirement to withdraw from the Summer School. Further, students may not make video or audio recordings of class sessions for their own use without written permission of the instructor. Academic Honesty Harvard Summer School takes matters of academic honesty very seriously. While you may discuss assignments with your classmates and others, make sure that any material you submit is your own work. Use of old course materials, including problem sets or exams from online sources, is strictly prohibited unless made available to all students by the instructor. Examples of unacceptable conduct include plagiarism, copying and pasting answers from the internet, downloading answers to problem sets or exams from other students or the internet, collaborating on examinations, etc. Collaboration on problem sets is allowed, even encouraged, but there will be absolutely no allowance for any collaboration on exams. Any suspected collaboration during an exam, or consultation via text, email, or the web, will result in a full report to the Administrative Board of the Summer School, with subsequent investigation and disciplinary action. You are responsible for understanding Harvard Summer School policies on academic integrity (http://www.summer.harvard.edu/policies/student-responsibilities). Not knowing the rules, misunderstanding the rules, running out of time, or being overwhelmed with multiple demands are not acceptable excuses. To support your learning about academic integrity rules, please visit the Resources to Support Academic Integrity: (http://www.summer.harvard.edu/resources-policies/resources-support-academicintegrity) where you will find links to the Harvard Guide to Using Sources and two free online 15-minute tutorials to test your knowledge of academic citation policy. The tutorials are anonymous openlearning tools. Accessibility The Summer School is committed to providing an accessible academic community. The Accessibility Office offers a variety of accommodations and services to students with documented disabilities. Please visit http://www.summer.harvard.edu/resources-policies/accessibility-services for more information. All accommodations need to go through the Accessibility Services Office. Separate arrangements for students who approach individual instructors with a disability issue cannot be made. Course Requirements Exams There will be two exams for the course, one on the material covered in the first half, and one covering material from the second half. Both will be multiple choice exams taken on-line using a program called “Connect,” which is based on the textbook. The first exam will be available on Connect starting at 6:30 PM (US Eastern Time) on Monday, July 11. Students will have a 24-hour window, from 6:30 PM (US Eastern Time) on Monday, July 11 to 6:30 PM (US Eastern Time) on Tuesday, July 12, in which to complete the exam. The exam is two hours long, and, once begun, must be taken in one sitting. It cannot be partially finished, then saved, then completed later. The first exam will cover all the material presented in lecture from the first lecture on June 22 to the lecture on July 6. The second exam will be available on Connect starting at 6:30 PM (US Eastern Time) on Monday, Aug. 1. Students will have a 24-hour window, from 6:30 PM (US Eastern Time) on Monday, Aug. 1 to 6:30 PM (US Eastern Time) on Tuesday, Aug. 2, in which to complete the exam. The exam is two hours long, and, once begun, must be taken in one sitting. It cannot be partially finished, then saved, then completed later. The second exam will cover all of the material presented in lecture from July 13 to the last lecture on July 27. Hence, it will not be cumulative, only covering the material from the second half of the course. Detailed instructions on both exams will be sent to students well in advance of the exam dates. Please Note: It is your responsibility to plan your travel ahead around exam dates. The fact that the exams will be taken on-line, and the 24-hour window in which you can take them, should afford enough flexibility for you to work around other professional or personal commitments. No makeup of the first exam will be offered. Please see the section below on “Grading” to understand how your semester grade will be determined if you must miss the first exam for any reason. Proctorio In order to assure the integrity of the exams, they will be proctored through software called Proctorio. The Summer School offers remote proctoring integrated into the course Canvas site, and allows you to take exams wherever you are most comfortable. There is no need to take the exams in the lecture hall, and, for distance students, there is no need to hire or pre-schedule an in-person proctor. Proctorio requires you to use a computer outfitted with an external or built-in webcam, microphone, and the Google Chrome browser. A stable, reliable internet connection is essential (e.g. hotspots and VPNs won’t work). More information about setting up your computer and an opportunity to test Proctorio will be provided long before the scheduled exams. Problem Sets Problem sets will be completed on Connect, the same on-line platform on which the first and second exams will be taken. Full instructions concerning the Connect platform will be provided well before the first problem set is assigned. There will be six problem sets assigned during the term. All six problem sets will be available on Connect. Availability and due dates are listed in the course calendar below, and also in Connect. Problem sets must be completed on Connect before 11:45 PM Eastern U.S. time, on the date the problem set is due. We cannot accept late problem sets for any reason. However, to compensate for this policy, the lowest two of their six problem set scores will be dropped from each student’s semester grade calculation. If you cannot get a set done some week, that can just be one of the sets that gets dropped. Our grading policy is designed with the interests of all students in mind. As a teaching staff, we have to be fair to those whose submit their problem sets on time, often in spite of difficult situations. However we drop the lowest two scores to offer flexibility to those who encounter situations beyond their control, or who just had a bad week. With so many students in so many different circumstances, we have found the best way to be fair to everyone is to lay these ground rules out well in advance and follow them without exception. Graduate Project (Note: This requirement applies only to students registered for graduate credit) Students registered for graduate credit must submit three 1 – 2 page papers, written on Canvas, applying what they have learned in class to a relevant news item that they find in the media— newspapers, magazines, or on-line. Due dates for the papers are as follows: June 30, July 14, and July 28. Grading Your semester grade will be based on the higher of two weightings: 30% problem set scores 35% first exam 35% second exam or 30% problem sets 70% second exam So, if you do poorly on the first exam, or are unable to take it for any reason, your final exam will automatically be reweighted to be 70% of your semester grade, with the average of your four highest problem sets constituting the remaining 30%. We will make these calculations automatically for each student—you don’t have to “opt in” or “opt out” of one or the other weighting. We will make certain you receive the highest grade to which you are entitled. Once we have determined which weighting gives you the higher semester score, your grade will be calculated two ways, and if there’s any difference in the result, we will give you the higher of the two letter grades which result. Curve In the first calculation, semester grades will determined by a curve. The nature of a curve is that your grade is based on your performance relative to all other students in the class. It does not involve an “absolute standard,” e.g., 90 – 100 = A, 80 – 90 = B, etc., which you may be used to from high school or in some other courses. I believe that a curve is ultimately the fairest way to determine grades, since it does not set some arbitrary absolute standard, but assigns grades based on students’ performance relative to their peers. With a curve, your grade is based on your percentile rank in the class, i.e., the percentage of students in the class who scored below you. If you are in the 60th percentile, for example, that means that 60% of students had scores equal to or below yours, while 40% of students had scores above yours. The Curve Used in Assigning Your Letter Grade for the Semester To determine your semester grade, we will employ the (very generous) curve given below: Letter Grade Percentile Rank Range of Letter Grade A 83rd Percentile – 100th Percentile A- 63rd Percentile – 83rd Percentile B+ 44th Percentile – 63rd Percentile B 24th Percentile – 44th Percentile B- 10th Percentile – 24th Percentile C+ 7th Percentile – 10th Percentile C 5th Percentile – 7th Percentile C- 3rd Percentile – 5th Percentile D 2nd Percentile – 3rd Percentile E/F 0th Percentile – 2nd Percentile For example, say your total semester points were 85% of total possible points. If this score put you in the 60th percentile, you would receive a B+ by the curve. Absolute Scale In the second calculation, grades will be determined by the standard curve you may be familiar with from high school. In this approach, your letter grade is based on your total points as a percentage of the total possible points for the semester. Here is the scale: A 93.0% C+ 77.0% A- 90.0% C 73.0% B+ 87.0% C- 70.0% B 83.0% D 65.0% B- 80.0% E/F 0.0% So, for example, if your total points for the semester were 85% of the total possible points, you would get a letter grade of B. Given that the curve resulted in a grade of B+, while the absolute scale resulted in a grade of B, your reported semester grade would be a B+. Note for graduate students: Your semester grade, as calculated above, will be lowered by half a letter grade for each of the three graduate papers that you do not submit. For example, if you fail to submit one of the papers, your grade in the example above would be lowered from a B+ to a B. Readings The textbook for the course is: Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Investments, (12th Edition, 2021). ISBN: 978-1260571158 However, there is no one book that covers all the material that we will. The majority of the reading reinforces material you'll learn in class, but some of the topics we cover may not appear in any reading. Conversely, some of the assigned reading is for background, and will not be covered explicitly in class. You should consider the readings to be most useful as a reference, or as an additional source of review for material we have presented in class. You will not be responsible-on problem sets or exams-for material in the readings that we have not covered in class. So, if you can find an earlier, less expensive edition of the textbook, (including international editions), that will be fine. Relevant newspaper and magazine articles may also be placed on the “Readings” page of the course web site when relevant. Course Evaluation Your constructive assessment of this course plays an indispensable role in shaping education at Harvard. Upon completing the course, please take time to fill out the online course evaluation. Student Profiles Every summer, the course enrolls people from an amazing variety of backgrounds and walks of life. And, the reasons for taking the class are almost as diverse as students’ backgrounds. In order to share a little of their life stories with their classmates, students are encouraged to submit a few lines about themselves to the “Student Profiles” discussion board on the course website. Please note that this is completely voluntary, and also that the only people who will be able to view what you submit will be your classmates and the teaching staff—nobody else. Just submit a few lines about your job, background, interests, and/or why you have decided to study finance. Even if you decide not to submit a profile, you will enjoy reading about some of your fellow students. COURSE CALENDAR Wed., June 22 Course Introduction and Overview Capital Allocation The Three Levels of Portfolio Selection Capital Allocation Between a Risky and a Risk-Free Asset The Capital Allocation Line (CAL) Risk vs. Return: The Sharpe Ratio Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chap. 6 Fri., June 24 Optimal Risky Portfolios The Role of Diversification A Portfolio with Two Risky Assets Portfolio Optimization: The Efficient Frontier Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chap. 7 Problem Set 1 Available on the Course Connect Site Mon., June 27 The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) The Beta Coefficient The Security Market Line (SML) The Search for Alpha Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chap. 9 Wed., June 29 Efficient Markets Hypothesis: Theoretical and Empirical Foundations Alternatives to EMH: Behavioral Finance Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chaps. 11 – 12 Problem Set 1 Due Problem Set 2 Available on the Course Connect Site Wed., July 6 Option Markets and Option Valuation Option Basics: Calls and Puts Option Pricing Models Binomial Option Pricing Model Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chaps. 20 – 21 Problem Set 2 Due Problem Set 3 Available on the Course Connect Site Fri., July 8 Review Session for the Midterm Sun., July 10 Problem Set 3 Due Mon., July 11- First Exam (2 hours, covering all material from June 22 -- July 6, inclusive) Tues., July 12 Wed., July 13 Fixed Income Securities Basics of Bond Pricing Characteristics of Bonds Managing Bond Portfolios Duration Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Section 2.2 Chap. 14 Problem Set 4 Available on the Course Connect Site Mon., July 18 The Term Structure of Interest Rates The Yield Curve Theories of the Term Structure Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chap. 15 Wed., July 20 Money: The Most Basic Financial Asset Banks and the Banking Industry Structure and Functions of the Federal Reserve Monetary Aggregates The Money Multiplier Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy: The New Role of the Fed, and the New Realities of Banking Problem Set 4 Due Problem Set 5 Available on the Course Connect Site Mon., July 25 Macroeconomic Factors in Security Analysis Demand and Supply Shocks Business Cycles The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chap. 17 Wed., July 27 Foreign Exchange and International Finance Global Equities Markets Exchange Rate Risk and Diversification Political Risk Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Chap. 25 Problem Set 5 Due Problem Set 6 Available on the Course Connect Site Fri., July 29 Review Session for the Second Exam Sun., July 31 Problem Set 6 Due Mon,, Aug. 1 – Second Exam (2 hours, covering all material from July 13 – July 27, Tues. Aug. 2 inclusive)