World Population Growth Through History
Billions
12
11
2100
10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
Black Death —The Plague
1900
1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100
Demographic Transition
Model
The Demographic Transition
in Great Britain
• Studied the change in birth rates, death
rates, and natural growth rates over the
course of British industrialization.
• Found a transition occurred when death
rates decline and then birth rates decline,
resulting in a low or sustained growth rate.
The Classic Demographic
Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
The Demographic Transition
Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high
birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and
finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most
rapid in the second stage.
Demographic Transition in England
Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in
the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition.
The Demographic Transition
© H.J. de Blij, P.O. Muller, and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
The Demographic Transition
• Stage 1: Low Growth
• Stage 2: High Growth
• Stage 3: Moderate Growth
• Stage 4: Low Growth or Stationary
• Stage 5: Negative Growth
Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about
1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history
reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.
Moderate Growth in Chile
Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it
entered stage 3 in the 1960s.
Low Growth in Denmark
Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the
1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population
pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.
Is the Demographic Transition
Model Still Useful?
• How well does the classic model work?
• Is it a useful framework for developing
countries?
• Do developing countries need to share the
experiences of Europe and the United
States?
• Is the socioeconomic change experienced
by industrialized countries a prerequisite
or a consequence of demographic
transition?
Demographic Transition in Sweden
and Mexico
Births/Deaths per 1,000
60
50
40
Sweden
Birth Rate
Mexico
Birth Rate
30
Death Rate
20
Death Rate
10
0
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1dIAt
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