International Conference
The 16th ICMSS
Investment Analysis
Coma Enterprise
Petra Christian University
PT Matahari Department Store Tbk
(LPPF)
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Industry: Retail
Company Name: Matahari
Ticker: LPPF
Price: 14425
Recommendation: Buy
Price Target: 21450
Revenue Growth
Total Revenues
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS
2013A
20.25%
Rp 6,754
Rp 1,814
Rp 1,150
394.17
2014A
17.34%
Rp 7,925
Rp 2,087
Rp 1,419
486.35
2015A
13.64%
Rp 9,006
Rp 2,339
Rp 1,780
610.31
2016F
7%
Rp 9,637
Rp 2,644
Rp 2,084
714.21
2017F
10%
Rp 10,601
Rp 2,908
Rp 2,292
785.63
Dividend per Share
Book Value per Share
157.70
291.80
427.30
528.51
549.94
577.44
-267.78
54.58
379.09
564.79
800.48
1,047.95
ROA
ROE
39.16%
-147.20%
41.58%
891.05%
45.79%
160.99%
47.28%
126.46%
42.80%
98.15%
38.94%
79.86%
Daily Share Price
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
2018F
10%
Rp 11,343
Rp 3,112
Rp 2,453
840.62
LPPF: Everbody’s Giant

Good Investment for both type of investor:
What we mean by both types are for Risk Averse
investors who choose Dividend more than Capital Gain,
and Capital Gain investor who clearly like Capital Gain
more than Dividend.

The Giant that never stops growing
Market Profile
Even though LPPF already have 152 stores in 66 cities,
52 Week Price Range
Average Daily Volume
Beta
Dividend Yield
Shares Outstanding
Market Capitalization
Institutional Holdings
Insider Holdings
IDR 13,325- IDR 22,575
IDR 6613780
1.82
2.77%
2,917.92
IDR 44,935,940.00
77.52%
22.48%
the Matahari Department Stores target is 400. By adding
8-10 stores every year, LPPF ultimately growing their
revenue. Matahari also have a great light-assets strategy
which makes their asset turnover highest in their sector.

The Giant buys its own food
High Dividend and Expansion at the same time doesn’t
mean you have to pay it with debt. LPPF have zero debt
Book Value per Share
Debt to Total Capital
Return on Equity
IDR 379.09
161%
and pay it all with internal money or with their free cash
flow.
1
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Company: The Pioneer and Market Leader
Follow the trend, will not be defeated by time
PT Matahari Department Store.Tbk is a retail company that
Established
: 24 Oktober 1958
1st Dep Store
: 1972
IPO Date
: 9 Oktober 1989
provides apparel, accessories, beauty supplies, and home supplies
for consumers who appreciate fashion and value added.Being the
first modern shopping centre in Indonesia, Matahari expanded its
network throughout Indonesia rapidly. In addition, it is also
Board of Director:
supported by a network of local suppliers and international
1. Bunjamin J. Mailool
reliable, affordable combination mode, stores with visually
2. Andre Rumantir
appealing, high quality and modern, and provide a shopping
3. Eddy Harsono Handoko
experience that is dynamic and fun.
4. Michael Remsen
5. Andy N. Purwo hardono
High Brand Profile
By the end of 2015, Matahari Department Store has achieved their 8 new
stores target with a total 147 stores network in 66 cities across Indonesia
Board of Comissioner:
(Currently 152 stores in 68 cities), or in other words, the largest retail
1. John Bellis
network in the country. Reaching their vision and mission, Matahari has
2. Sigit Prasetya
50.000 local workers and 850 local suppliers with exclusive brand such
3. William Travis Saucer
as Nevada, Little M, Cole, and Aero.
4. Herbert Stepic
In 2015, 35.5% of Matahari Department Store sales comes from their
5. Johanes Jany
direct purchase (Exclusive Brand) or the highest in history. In 2016,
6. Jonathan L.Parapak
Matahari Department Store is listed as number 1 Department Store
7. Henry Jani Liando
Retail category in Asia-Pacific Top 500.
8. John Riady
9. Niel Nielson
Expansion is the key
Share Holder in percentage
In the third quarter of 2016, Matahari have open 4 new stores in
2%
77,25%
20.48%
Indonesia, Quoting the company secretary, Matahari will open 8-10 new
stores at the end of 2016 which cost 30-40 billion IDR each store using
the internal fund. Matahari Department Store will also change their stores
lightning into LED to add customer comfort and save electricity cost.
PT. Multipolar TBK
Asia Color Company Ltd.
Public
2
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Summary: Good Reputation, inside and outside
Matahari have a lot of awards such as Top Brand Award and People’s
Choice Award, but most importantly, they also have a good corporate
structure and good management. Not just good at its circle, it is also
known as a member of the largest enterprise group number 6th in
Indonesia, Lippo Group.
Well Carried
As a member of the Lippo Enterprise Group, Matahari gain a lot of
advantages, including securing positions in Lippo Karawaci’s property
as Lippo Mall. In other hand Lippo group also has media holdings
group that can advertise Matahari (if needed) even though it is not for
free. Recently, LPPF also acquiring GEI stock by almost 10%, or
known as Mataharimall.com which also will increase Matahari sales.
Dividend Per Share
A bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush
Some people might choose dividend than capital gain because it is more
577.44
528.51
291.8
549.94
predictable. Matahari Department Stores offers 70% Dividend Payout
Ratio to its shareholder. If there are investor that, not sure about LPPF
future cash flow or a risk averse investor, LPPF offers sure Dividend
427.3
Policy by adding 10% more dividends in upcoming years.
157.7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Great Management, Loudest Signal, and Less Conflict
Paying all of bank debt with internal money make some shareholder
worried. But LPPF management settles it down by offering 70% of
Long Term Debt
LPPF net income in the form of cash dividends. By offering big
dividend, remembering LPPF doesn’t have any debt, management can’t
2,733.8
2,082.5
2,475.2
do some wasteful spending to non-profit investment or for their self-
1,566.5
410.2
0.0 0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
interest.
Exclusive Brand Awareness
Branding is also one important thing in the department store industry to
make customer satisfy and gain value-added. Matahari have it all, from
Nevada Clothing, Fladeo Shoes, Cole Jeans, and many others dailyneeded product who has already won awards, including foreign brands.
3
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
26/5/2016
MDS pay
dividend to
shareholders
(70% DPR)
13/5/2015 MDS
pay dividend to
shareholders
(35% DPR)
30/5/2015
MDS
RUPS
agreed to
60% DPR
26-4-2016
22/1/2016 MDS MDS sales Q1
Acquiring 5%
2016 vs Q1
of PT Global
2015 +31.6%
eCommerence
Indonesia (GEI)
31-10-2016
MDS sales Q3
2016 vs Q3
2015 -17%
It is possible that Matahari Share price will be back above 17.000-21.000 in March, or when Matahari going
to announce dividend payout ratio. Since 2013 (After CVC), Matahari always have minus growth share
price volatility pattern in Jul-Dec (Month to Month%) except in 2015 (0.1%).
Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow
Our Valuation comes up to 21.700 target price or 52% discount on the market.
Using Risk Free 7.72% from 10y Government Bond Yield, 9.05 risk premium, tax rate 20% and
cost of equity 16.68 which gained from rf+beta*rp. With inflation 5.7% gained from average
inflation from 2010-(mar) 2016. We found that WACC is 16.68%.
Finding Terminal Value from (FCFF* (1+inflation)) /(WACC-inflation), Discount factor from
WACC^, DCF= discount factor*FCFF; We Found EV that will used to found eq Val/share 21,463.
Currently (14TH Dec 2016), LPPF market price /share is 14,425 which indicated that LPPF is
currently undervalued in the market or on 49% discount.
4
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
In Detail
Revenue Growth
11343.2
9637.4
7925.5
9006.9
6754.3
10601.1
12986.8
Revenue Growth
12137.2
We use 7% growth in 2016 (as affect to -17% Q3 sales), 10% growth
in 2017, and 7% growth in 2018-2020. This growth is assumed by
market share that start to be eaten by Online Shop such as
Bukalapak, Tokopedia, Lazada, Zalora and even MatahariMall can
cause caniballization. But as we know that Matahari always expand
the number of their stores across Indonesia. Adding new stores in a
new city or Highly growth, GDP city (or province) will also one of
Net Fixed Assets
the important assumption to calculate revenue growth.
Debt
1173.6
876.6
727.2
726.0
969.9
1291.0
1066.9
881.7
We Assume that Matahari already have a lot of Free Cash Flow and
won’t get any additional Debt onwards.
Assets
As we know that every Lippo group cling firmly to their asset-light
strategy, including Matahari. So we set asset growth 10% each year.
It’s calculated by their expanding strategy which cost 20-30 billion
Dividend Paid
1,966
1,717
Rupiah /store.
1,542
1,605
460.156
1,837
Dividend
Highly Free Cash Flow makes Matahari give high percentage of
851.448
Dividend (DPR) 70% of their net sales. Assuming they will maintain
0
that percentage number onwards. It is also increasing their cost of
equity.
Another Reason to use DCF
The Discounted free cash flow model is
therefore the only theoretical correct
valuation method reflecting directly the
cash flow available for distribution and
hence should capture best the pricing
mechanism
of
the
stock
Apple to Apple
Our Valuation 100% comes from Discounted Cash Flow. There is
no Market Capital that as big as LPPF in the sectors to do relative
Valuation. According to Bapepam LK, VII C3.Butir 1.a 17/2009,
DCF is the best valuation for ongoing concern business.
market
(Rappaport and Mauboussin,2001).
5
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Risks to Price Target
As a cyclical stock, LPPF share price will also be affected by Indonesian economy and politics.
Almost 65% funds in our capital market come from foreign investor. If there are politic issues
which also affect the economy growth, foreign investor would “run out” from Indonesia Capital
Market and left LPPF shares fall. Tremendous growth of Ecommerce will also affect LPPF share
price by taking LPPF market share.
Headlines
MatahariStore.com (LPPF) vs MatahariMall.com (10% of LPPF)
This is what we called as cannibalization. It is feared that Matahari Store will be buried by
Matahari Mall, and the cost (operational & RD) will be wasted.
LPKR Investment Plan
InBeritaSatu.com, Indonesia tourism minister expressed LPKR intention to support the government
travel programs by establishing 120 new malls in 51 cities. That simply means another 120
Matahari Department Store will soon be open.
Indonesian Department store retail
sales value outlook
26.6
32.7
27.8 27.5 27.7 29 30.7
35 37.6
40.7
Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning
It is growing, but the hike is still low
In numbers, Indonesia Departmentt store retail sales always
growing. Indonesia Retail association (Aprindo), makes a
statement that they are optimistic that in 2017 retail industry will
grow up to 10 percent. This statement is supported by Indonesian
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
macroeconomics such as GDP, which predicted by Indonesia
Government above 5.1% in 2017. Besides GDP, this statement
also supported by Indonesian Consumer Spending Index, which
growing each year. Even though we are growing each year, in
2015, Indonesia is still defeated by Malaysia in top 30 Global
Retail Development Index. Indonesia is at 12th position while
Malaysia on 9th. According to GDRI findings, Indonesia is in the
low peak stage and still far from mature stage,
6
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
The Owner of the Largest Prey
Consumer in Indonesia can be classified as a High Class, middleclass, and Low-class consumer. Higher consumer spending, low
levels of unemployment and growing economy, create a number
of "spenders" who was born into middle class spender who is
none other than the main segment of Matahari Department Store.
Growing Bills
Despite higher consumer spending and retail industry sales
growth in Indonesia, operating expenses have continued to rise.
Jakarta Regional Minimum Wage
3,100
2,700
These expenses include the removal of subsidies on electricity by
the government, the minimum employee salary increases or
2,200
UMK annually, and the increased rent price in prime location.
2,441
1,290
The number one and the two digits growth
1,118
2011
2012
Being the largest retailer in Indonesia won’t stop Matahari to
2013
2014
2015
2016
grow even bigger. New Challenge by other new retail players
from overseas that come into Indonesia market, forcing Matahari
to take all prime locations for its branding strength and total sales
added.
It is Effective
Matahari have their 84 or 59 percent of their Stores located in
Java, or the most populated province in Indonesia. As the effect,
61 percent of their total store sales come from Java alone. This
means that Matahari have set their store location strategy
effectively.
Matahari stores location in percentage
11%%
13%
11%
JABOTABEK
12% 8%
Sumatera
Jawa Barat
Jawa Tengah
Jawa Timur
Bali & Kalimantan
Sulawesi & Indonesia Timur
Porter’s 5 Force
Threat of Substitute: Moderate to High
28%
15%
Traditional Markets: traditional markets remains one of the
people's choice to buy daily needs. According to the Standart
Charter Research, only 35% of apparel sales that occurred in the
modern market.
7
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Specialty retail: More and more small shops are appearing in
shopping malls or virtually (online shop), with its own brand and
Sales by province in
percentage
focus on certain products.
6%
17%
Limited Brand: However, Matahari has some of its own brand that
16%
already has a very good brand awareness in society, such as Nevada
61%
which rewarded as one of the top brand clothing in Indonesia and
beats other international brands.
Java
Sumatera
Threat of entrants: Moderate
Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Maluku
Franchise: Many newcomers are mostly brand of foreign origin, but
other location
to compete at the same level with Matahari, franchisee required
substantial capital to conduct business, branding, place, and legal
permissions.
Loyalty Program: Matahari have been known for a long time and
trusted by thousands of customers reflected in the number of
Rivarly
among
existing…
Bergaining
Power of
Buyer
Threat of
Substitute
4
3
2
1
0
Matahari Membership Card (MCC) that has already spread hundreds
of thousands. Economies of scale are also owned by Matahari as the
Threat of
entrants
owner of the largest store network in Indonesia.
Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Low
Bargaining
Power of
Suppliers
Product: Matahari Department Store has had 25,000 suppliers
providing a wide range of products including electronics, clothing,
furniture, and everyday products. For the clothing products it has
950 non-exclusive suppliers and 250 exclusive suppliers.
Bargaining Power of Buyer: Very High
No Switching Cost: Customers can buy daily necessities anywhere.
Matahari Club Card, which has over than 300,000 members, only a
few percent of the total 250 million consumers in Indonesia.
Among existing Rivalry Firm: Low to Moderate
Matahari Department Store is still the market leader in the middle
segment retail product with the largest network in Indonesia.
8
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Financial Analysis
Statement of Comprehensive income statement: Gain through its expansion
Currently the P/E ratio of LPPF is 21.51 or lower than P/E average for its industry (23.46). Earning
is also growing fast from the Matahari expansion strategy that add 8-10 new stores each year,
which assumed will be helping LPPF sales growth even in the mature stage.
Statement of Cash Flow: High Margin & Effectiveness at its best
The fast Growing Free cash flow has their own reasons, one of them are High profitability
margin and good Management Effectiveness from Matahari Department Store.
Profitability Ratios
LPPF Industry Sectors Management
Effectiveness
LPPF
Industry Sectors
Gross Margin
63.1
43.98
23.94
Return on Assets
45.79
8.78
Operating Margin
26.47
8.98
7.74
Return on Investment 138.13 13.06
9.09
Net Profit Margin
20.66
6.48
8.25
Return on Equity
160.99 14.91
12.6
5.6
Statement of balance sheet : 100% internal fund
Zero Debt, 70% Dividend, makes LPPF balance sheet looking good and strong. At the end of 2016
a current ratio of LPPF will reach above 1 and their quick ratio will also above 1 in 2018.
LPPF Ratio
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
Current Ratio
0.93
1.16
1.33
1.48
1.63
1.76
Quick Ratio
0.52
0.75
0.95
1.14
1.31
1.47
9
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Risks
Almost
Certain
R1: Strategic Risk: Matahari with the
Likely
Possible
aggressive expansion strategy, which can
R1
R2
R3.A
open 8-10 new stores every year, make a
R4
chance of a cannibalization effect that can
Unlikely
R3.B
reduce same store growth. Added 7-12 new
stores per year also bring problem to their
Rare
LPPF
RISK
MATRIX
light-assets strategy which relying on their
Insignificant
Minor
Moderate
Major
Catatrophic
supply distribution
R2: Compliance Risk: Although almost 78% percent of sales inventory comes from local
suppliers, Matahari still has a compliance / Regulation risk of imported goods due to export
program by the government. To protect domestic products government regulations can be
complicated and might add HPP inventory or capital costs.
R3.C: Operational Risk: From 144 Matahari Department Store, 35% were rented from business
relations. If there is a business partner who terminate the contract, Matahari will lose their
premium location.
R3.B: Operational Risk: Natural disasters such as floods also can hamper inventory distribution
or even damage the inventory.
R4: Systematic Risk: The risk of market changes is inevitable, cyclical stocks like LPPF affected
greatly by economic conditions and automatically, reduce business growth of LPPF.
Value of the shares of a company reflects the fundamental and information from the company
(Singhania & Anchalia, 2013).
Conclusion
LPPF being in a state of correction in and are underpriced. So there is a situation of "buy at
discount". This makes these shares eligible to be one of the considerations a good
investment in the stock market.
In addition to weighing the price is "cheap", the dividend policy Matahari Department
Store also can boost the share price LPPF
10
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Figure 1: Income Statement
in millions
Source: Company Documents, Student Estimates
PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE (LPPF)
Statement of Comprehensive Income
Projected
(in Million of IDR)
Periodicity:
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.E
2017.E 2018.E 2019.E 2020.E
4,091.9 4,700.7 5,616.9 6,754.3 7,925.5 9,006.9
9,637.4 10,601.1 11,343.2 12,137.2 12,986.8
1,458.7 1,595.2 1,910.8 2,391.3 2,877.5 3,335.6
3,411
3,752
4,014
4,296
4,596
Gross Income
- Operating Expenses
(Research & Dev Costs)
2,633.2 3,105.5 3,706.1 4,363.1 5,048.0 5,671.3
1,539.9 1,864.2 2,132.2 2,581.9 2,960.2 3,332.3
6,227
3,583
-
6,849
3,941
-
7,329
4,217
-
7,842
4,512
-
8,391
4,828
-
Operating Income
- Interest Expense
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)
1,093.3 1,241.3 1,573.9 1,814.9 2,087.9 2,339.0
315.0 536.8 451.5 309.2 256.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-79.9 -31.1 -36.6 -17.9 -18.6 94.2
2,644
39
2,908
43
3,112
46
3,330
49
3,563
53
2,605
521
2,866
573.10
3,066
613
3,281
656
3,510
702
2,084
2,292
2,453
2,625
2,808
Pretax Income
- Income Tax Expense
Net Income
858.6
234.1
624.5
735.6 1,159.0 1,523.6 1,850.5 2,244.8
269.9 388.1 373.5 431.4 464.0
465.6
770.9 1,150.2 1,419.1 1,780.8
11
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Figure 2: Balance Sheet
in millions
Source: Company Documents, Student Estimates
PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE (LPPF)
Statement of Balance Sheet
492
677
Annual
2012
2013
2014
2015
744
931
1,332
1,326
1,744.2 1,703.1 2,117.5 2,272.9
999.9
772.2
785.9
946.7
57.7
32.8
45.1
39.3
519.6
723.8
955.2 1,007.8
167.1
174.3
331.3
279.2
2016
1,351.85
2,790
1,438
62
998
292
855.1 1,185.5 1,233.8 1,295.4 1,616.4
939.8 1,183.7 1,414.1 1,619.4 2,004.1
316.9
489.7
686.9
893.4 1,127.5
622.9
694.0
727.2
726.0
876.6
232.2
491.5
506.6
569.5
739.8
(in Million of IDR)
2017
1,377.28
3,492
2,115
68
988
322
671
Projected
2018
1,394.67
4,181
2,786
73
978
344
714
2019
1,414.07
4,915
3,501
78
968
368
2020
1,435.61
5,697
4,261
83
958
394
1,617
2,204
1,323
882
735
1,864
2,425
1,455
970
894
2,118
2,667
1,600
1,067
1,051
2,393
2,934
1,761
1,174
1,219
2,691
3,228
1,937
1,291
1,399
Periodicity:
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
+ Cash & Near Cash Items
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable
+ Inventories
+ Other Current Assets
2010
2011
515
648
1,471.3 1,567.3
956.105
919.0
14.1
46.3
400.8
462.0
100.4
140.1
Total Long-Term Assets
Gross Fixed Assets
Accumulated Depreciation
+ Net Fixed Assets
+ Other Long Term Assets
3,942.5
735.156
163.1
572.1
3,370.4
Total Assets
5,413.9
2,422.5
2,929.8
2,936.9
3,413.0
3,889.3
4,407
5,356
6,299
7,308
8,387
Total Current Liabilities
+ Accounts Payable
+ Short Term Borrowings
+ Other Short Term Liabilities
1,464.9
718.5
233.3
513.2
1,799.8
891.2
284.9
623.6
2,170.2
1,054.7
483.9
631.5
1,890.2
1,266.0
29.1
595.1
2,518.5
1,410.8
279.0
828.7
2,439.0
1,551.6
0.0
887.4
2,395
1,446
950
2,635
1,590
1,044
2,819
1,701
1,118
3,016
1,821
1,196
3,228
1,948
1,280
Total Long Term Liabilities
+ Long Term Borrowings
+ Other Long Term Borrowings
2,874.7
2,733.8
141.0
2,255.4
2,082.5
172.8
2,691.1
2,475.2
215.9
1,828.1
1,566.5
261.5
735.2
410.2
325.0
344.1
0.0
344.1
364
364
386
386
409
409
433
433
458
458
Total Liabilities
+ Share Capital & APIC
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity
4,339.6 4,055.1 4,861.3 3,718.3 3,253.7 2,783.1
582.0
582.0
582.0 -3,185.1 -3,185.1 -3,185.1
492.3 -3,284.4 -2,513.5 2,403.8 3,344.4 4,291.3
2,759
(3,185)
4,833
3,020
(3,185)
5,521
3,228
(3,185)
6,257
3,449
(3,185)
7,044
3,686
(3,185)
7,887
Total Shareholders Equity
1,074.2 -2,702.4 -1,931.5
-781.4
159.3
1,106.2
1,648
2,336
3,072
3,859
4,701
Total Liabilities & Equity (Total Assets)
5,413.9
2,936.9
3,413.0
3,889.3
4,407
5,356
6,299
7,308
8,387
2,422.5
2,929.8
Market Profile
12
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Figure 3: Statement of Cash Flows
in millions
Source: Company Documents, Student Estimates
PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE (LPPF)
Statement of Balance Sheet
(in Million of IDR)
2016
Net Income
2,084
+ Depretiation & Amortization
195
+ Changes in Current Account (exclude cash) (69)
2017
2,292
132
214
2018
2,453
145
167
2019
2,625
160
178
2020
2,808
176
190
2,210
2,639
2,765
2,963
3,174
- Capital Expenditures
196
379
400
435
473
Cash flow from Investing Activity
(196)
(379)
(400)
(435)
(473)
+ Changes in Long term liabilities and equity 20
- Dividend paid
(1,542.16)
21
(1,605)
23
(1,717)
24
(1,837)
25
(1,966)
Cash flow from Financing Activity
(1,522)
(1,583)
(1,694)
(1,813)
(1,940)
492
677
671
714
760
2,014
2,260
2,366
2,527
2,700
Cash flow from Operating Activity
Net changes in Cash
Free Cash Flow
13
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Figure : Other Statements or Exhibits
in millions
Source: Company Documents, Student Estimates
PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
(in Million IDR)
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
EBIT
2,644
2,908
3,112 3,330
3,563
Tax
(521)
(573)
(613)
(656)
(702)
Depreciation
195
132
145
160
Capex
Changes in NWC
(196)
(69)
(379)
214
(400)
167
(435)
178
Free Cash Flow
Terminal Value
2,053
2,303
2,412 2,577
Discount Factor
0.75
0.56
0.42
0.31
0.23
DCF
1,535
1,288
1,009 806
2,914
Enterprise Value
Non-Operating Assets
(2015)
Debt from Capital
Structure (2015)
Fair Value of Equity
Shares Outstanding
Fair Value of Equity
per Share
Stock Price per Share
* undervalued stock
price
176
(473)
190
2,753
9,698
7,553
947
344
62,626,021
2,917.92
21,463
14,425
14Dec16
14
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
WACC Calculation
Risk free
Risk premium
Beta
Tax rate
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt
WoE
WoD
Inflation (Growth)
WACC
7.05% Indonesian Bond Yield 10 year
9.30% Damodaran Q3
1.82 Reuters
20%
33.70%
4%
100%
0%
4.1% Average Sep 2015 - Sept 2016
33.70%
Reference
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/17/171562/Matahari_AR2015-MEDRESS-.pdf
http://media.corporateir.net/media_files/IROL/17/171562/Combine_AR%20Matahari%202014_small%20SIze.pdf
http://media.corporateir.net/media_files/IROL/17/171562/Annual_Report_2013_PTMatahari_Department_Store_Tbk.p
df
http://media.corporateir.net/media_files/IROL/17/171562/annual/Annual_Report_2012_PT_Matahari_5142013b.pdf
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/17/171562/annual/Annual-Report-2011.pdf
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/17/171562/annual/Annual-Report-2010.pdf.
http://www.bareksa.com/id/text/2016/01/25/potensi-kanibalisasi-saham-matahari-departmentstore-anjlok-8-dalam-3-hari/12557/analysis
http://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/survei/penjualaneceran/Documents/SPE%20Oktober%202016_I
D.pdf
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=LPPF.JK
Miller, M. H., & Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend Policy, growth and the Valuation of
Shares. Journal of Business , 411-433.
Gordon, M. J. (1959). Dividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices. The Review of Economics
and Statistics , 99-105.
15
Coma Enterprise
Date: 11/12/2016
Disclosures:
Ownership and material conflicts of interest:
The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report [holds/does not hold] a financial interest in the securities of this company.
The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report [knows/does not know] of the existence of any conflicts of interest that
might bias the content or publication of this report. [The conflict of interest is…]
Receipt of compensation:
Compensation of the author(s) of this report is not based on investment banking revenue.
Position as a officer or director:
The author(s), or a member of their household, does [not] serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject
company.
Market making:
The author(s) does [not] act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities.
Ratings guide:
Banks rate companies as either a BUY, HOLD or SELL. A BUY rating is given when the security is expected to deliver absolute
returns of 15% or greater over the next twelve month period, and recommends that investors take a position above the security’s weight
in the S&P 500, or any other relevant index. A SELL rating is given when the security is expected to deliver negative returns over the
next twelve months, while a HOLD rating implies flat returns over the next twelve months.
Disclaimer:
The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the
author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or
completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by
16