TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
HARRIS
3
Crutch Arguments
12
Become A Person Of The Book
16
Quarterback
17
Running Back
56
Wide Receiver
129
Tight End
200
Team Defense
237
Ranks
251
Appendices
264
Harris Football YouTube Channel
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My Name Is Chris! This Is An Almanac!
W
elcome! Welcome in, everybody. Thank you so much for being here. Wow! It’s been another
hard dang year, but here’s hoping that you and I and everybody we know will start getting
our lives back to normal—by getting vaccinated!—and part of that will be enjoying a
fresh NFL season. Football is entertainment, fantasy football is some weird goofball variant on that
entertainment, and the past 18 months have reinforced that none of it really matters at all. But I have
to say: I’m happy to have it around. It’s turned into the unlikeliest source of connection I could’ve
imagined…and without it, I wouldn’t know most of you!
So unlike this time last year, as I write it feels pretty certain that we’re going to have a 2021 NFL
season. We might even have fans in the stadia. NFL players have always been asked to put their health
on the line for our carnival amusement…personally, I’m looking forward the possibility of going back
to “only” worrying whether they might strain a hamstring or pop a quad, rather than waking up every
day to discover who wound up on the COVID list. For me—and I’m guessing for a lot of you—football
Sundays are part of the fabric of my life during the fall and winter, and yeah, for sure, I always feel a
little conflicted about that given what we know about concussions, but it’s nice to hope everyone we’re
watching on TV and drafting for our fantasy teams won’t contract a scary illness just by breathing. That
said, you’re not going to read much more about COVID in this year’s Almanac, except in cases where
an individual player’s 2020 season was affected by it. It’s maddening that the biggest public health crisis
in a hundred years has been turned into some kind of litmus test about whether you accept reality, but
that’s where we are. Get the damn vaccine.
My goals in these pages is to get you ready for your fantasy drafts, to tell you how I view the NFL’s
current landscape, and to make you chortle heartily, not necessarily in that order. I’ve often said that
while I think the Player Profile Almanac is the most thorough distillation of a meticulous film-watcher’s
experience of the prior season imaginable, I also view it as a joke-delivery mechanism. I grant you, as I
get older my jokes and references age with me. If something winds up not making you laugh, you can
just assume it’s because you’re refreshingly young. Congratulations!
So let’s go! I’ve been writing this thing since early May—and this year I got some help on the profiles
from Travis Souders, thank you, Travis!—and I’m eager to share it with you. My post-ESPN career
has essentially been dedicated to the proposition that fantasy football analysis is largely simplistic and
bad: the result of folks who read depth charts and dive into data heedless of how unpredictive NFL
data tends to be. When you read the profiles and research projects herein, you can be assured that
my opinions are legitimately my opinions, and that they’re mostly borne of judgements I’ve made by
watching film of every regular-season NFL game for the past decade. That doesn’t mean I’m always
right, because there is no “always right” when it comes to predicting such a random, outlier-laden sport.
But I believe in evaluating talent. Good players tend to produce good numbers.
For 2021’s Almanac, we decided our theme would be MUSIC, so you’ll see a bunch of made-up album
covers referring to inside jokes that probably only podcast listeners will really get, and then you’ll see
song lyrics scattered throughout. Do they skew old, too? Yeah, probably. Not, like, doo-wop old, but also
not much hip hop. If the stuff we reference here isn’t your cup of tea, well, I hope you’ll have the good
grace to nod knowingly, chuck me under the chin, and read on.
Mostly: I hope you have a good time reading. Let me also remind you: I also have a YouTube
channel where you can see exactly what I’m seeing! Come subscribe! It’s fun! Click this link:
(www.YouTube.com/HarrisFootball)
2021: The Year I Rewrite The Almanac Introduction
Year over year, it’s tempting to keep reusing the same introduction for this Almanac, which explains
why I’ve done exactly that for…several years. (Also never discount laziness.) I have a way of thinking
about this stuff that doesn’t change very much from season to season, mostly because it works better
than the alternatives. But if you’re an annual Almanac purchaser, you deserve a little refresh! For 2021,
I thought I’d take another swing at it, from scratch, so I could try and explain my approach. A lot of you
know my approach, because you listen to me talk on my podcast and watch the videos we make for our
YouTube channel. But maybe some of you are new to my work and to this document, and you could use
an introduction to the rubrics with which I approach evaluating fantasy football. So here we go!
When I Was Just A Wee Lad...
…I worked at ESPN. I was lucky enough to get a job at the Worldwide Leader just as fantasy sports
became a bigger part of mainstream sports culture. We used to get funny looks in the make-up room!
And while I was a pretty good writer, and had been playing fantasy for a long time, I honestly don’t
know if there was anything particularly different, interesting or special about the way I did my job.
My initial assignments were to cover fantasy football, fantasy baseball and fantasy NASCAR. I wrote
and talked about them for years, and at the beginning probably sounded about like anyone else on the
network or anyplace else. I crunched numbers. I found trends. When I happened upon a stat or package
of stats I believed might be predictive, I wrote about it, and tested it, and had spreadsheets and did all
the quant things a good analyst is supposed to do.
It worked quite well for baseball. This was a time when most analysts (who on TV were mostly explayers) couldn’t be bothered to learn much beyond topline player stats, so having the sabremetricians
of the world proselytize things like BABIP and WAR until they became more mainstream was revelatory.
Because batter/pitcher interactions were so similar, and because there were so many of them in a
baseball season, the people doing hard data science popularized the notion that topline numbers could
be misleading. I read their work. I applied it to my own, and preached the gospel of valuing players by
more unseen statistical factors.
It also worked pretty well for stock-car racing! Weirdly, I was a cast member of NASCAR Now from its
very first season, despite the fact that I didn’t grow up watching the races and didn’t really know much
about it. But an opportunity’s an opportunity, so I did my best to become an expert. I sat next to Dale
Jarrett a couple times a week, and he probably looked cross-eyed at me every time I talked—though he
was never anything but incredibly nice to me—because I’d literally never (and still literally have never)
sat behind the wheel of one of those death machines. But I developed models about which teams and
drivers excelled on which types of tracks, and tried to start drawing parallels to make predictions about
who’d be good at the next week’s track. I didn’t really understand what I was talking about from a carracing perspective, but it didn’t matter: it was thousands of laps’ worth of good and interrelated data.
Football Is Just Different
For a few years, I tried to be similarly analytical about fantasy football. Like a dutiful professional, I
tried to find breakout players by examining lightly-used guys who had high yards-per-carry averages
and dismiss aging veterans whose target totals went down as the season went along. And it really didn’t
work. NFL stats are absolutely excellent at telling you what just happened, but they’re not great at
predicting what will happen.
There are two reasons. First, one play can alter the data to such an incredible degree that it’s rendered
quasi-meaningless. I think we can agree that a running back who has 19 carries that go zero yards and
one carry that goes 100 yards is probably a worse bet in the future than the one who has 20 carries that
each go for five yards, but YPC can’t tell the difference. (Certainly, that’s why the notion of “standard
deviation” exists, but that simple calculation doesn’t help us understand whether the long run was fluke
or heroism.) Second, and I think more importantly, football data is created by interactions that contain
exponentially more complexity than the data produced by a pitcher throwing to a batter, or a car driving
around a track 500 times. It’s 11-on-11 out there, and often a skill-position player has very little to do
with whether a given play is successful. He gets a good block, he might go for 40 yards. He gets a bad
one, he’s stopped. A wideout saddled with a poor quarterback has no real way to prove he’s good, except
randomly popping a long play that might happen because of him, or might happen because a cornerback
fell down. Which right tackle is playing injured this week? Which linebacker has decoded the QB’s vocal
inflections? In my undergrad days, we called this “spaghetti data.” There’s a meaningful story to be told
by analyzing it after the fact, but that story often has no bearing on what’ll happen next. There are too
many interconnected factors, too many flukes, to tell us which players will have a good season, let alone
a good game next week.
Oh, but listen. In the many years since I began doing this dumb job, football data has gotten more
prevalent, not less. Now we have NextGen stats created through trackers in player uniforms, NFL
Combine performance data has become part of the discourse, and if you’re not quoting something about
YAC at the water cooler, Jeannie from Accounting will politely tell you to pound sand. The geeks have
stormed the castle, and as these impossible heaps of data become popularized—that guy reached the
highest mph of any running back all week! that guy has the widest average separation on his routerunning! that guy’s three-cone time is amazing!—fantasy has desperately tried to keep up.
Would That It Were So Simple
Man, if I could do less work, I’d be pretty psyched! Not that the fantasy experts who advocate data uber
alles don’t work hard, but…once you build a model, all that’s left is to shove data into it, look at the
results, and tweak. That’s not nothing. It requires a nimble mind and some killer Excel chops. But it still
amounts to swan diving into a big pile of numbers and swimming around, and it doesn’t take that long.
A few years into my tenure at ESPN, I realized two things. (1) I sounded like everyone else. We were
all speaking the same language of YPC and YPA and QBR and I wondered what actual value I—or any
of us—was adding. (2) My analysis sort of sucked. I was just reading depth charts and coach interviews
and Vegas over/under win totals and building a vision of how I expected things to go based on the same
vision everyone else had. I was groupthinking, much as I did covering baseball and NASCAR. I’m sure
my articles and TV hits were fine, but I wasn’t really saying much.
And what occurred to me was: there was one frontier no fantasy analyst I knew had crossed. We all feel
like we understand the abilities of players we see. We all can say, “Yeah, I’m not getting fooled by that
running back, I saw what he looked like in the open field. About a hundred other guys could’ve made
that run.” So what if I watched all of it? What if I got tape of every single NFL regular season game and
watched every play, and made notes and started to compare?
Assessing Talent Is The Key
The numbers lie. Team performances wildly fluctuate year to year. Coaches lie all the bloody time.
Using any of these as a foundational piece of one’s fantasy predictions ends in mediocrity. Go ahead and
draft your fantasy football team based on last year’s stats or NFL standings and tell me how that goes.
Make your decisions based on which depth chart looks wide open or the nice things a coach said about
his player. None of it really works! The NFL is a weird, unrepeatable smashing together of flesh and
treasure that won’t conform to the boxes we build for it.
Of course, that’s not to say we have no earthly idea from season to season which players will be good.
By now we’ve all seen Patrick Mahomes enough to know: he’s really great, and if he stays healthy, he’ll
have a good season. That Dalvin Cook guy can really play. Boy, Davante Adams sure seems to be able to
get open, huh? Did we decide these things because of their stats? I’d argue no; I’d argue we decided these
things because we saw them play football, and they did things other players can’t do.
And that’s why I’ve used my film-watching approach for the past ten years or so. It can be difficult
to motivate yourself to watch a 16th game in a three-day stretch. It’s a lot easier to listen to a press
conference and read a box score. But I now have the bedrock belief that all football fans basically
know good players and bad players when they see them. I don’t think I’m some all-world talent
evaluator. I just think mostly it’s obvious, and I happen to be the insane person who puts my eyeballs
through 256 games—soon to be 272 games!—per season because it gives my analysis an edge. Was a
good weekly stat output something special? Did it come from something fluky? Our eyeballs—yours and
mine—can tell us that much better than any spreadsheet. It’s not perfect. Of course it’s not! Sometimes
we’re wrong. Sometimes teams don’t agree with our assessments. Sometimes players get hurt. But it’s
the best we have. My goal is to get you to tilt your perspective away from simplistic, uninformed,
clichéd reasons for liking players, even if we never rid ourselves of them entirely. This Almanac’s goal,
therefore, is to get you to tilt toward talent.
Draft Strategy Notes
Okay, here’s where I’m going to start repeating myself from previous seasons’ Almanacs, because my
draft strategy tends not to change much based on fads. Zero-RB! Elite tight ends only! Exclusively
silver-uniformed players! Certainly, when I put together a draft board for a given league, I look at the
scoring, I look at the rules, I understand where requirements may be unique. Just as certainly, as a draft
proceeds, I might look at the players I’ve drafted so far and feel like I’ve gone quite risky or haven’t
built in enough explosiveness, and change things up a little. But I’m almost never saying, “I need this
position right now!”
I really do try and stick to my board for as long as I can. Are there times when I jump a player over
someone I have rated higher? Definitely. Sometimes it’s because I’ve already loaded up at a position.
Sometimes it’s because I feel like I’ve taken some high-variance players and want some security.
Sometimes it’s because I pick again soon, and I think I can snipe the drafter selecting behind me. But
I try to trust the evaluations I’ve done on the players themselves, rather than reach to fill positions
(especially very early and very late). When I’m drafting, my main emotion seems to be mostly me
saying, “Okay, which guy am I happily surprised lasted this long?” and picking him.
Of course, this is fancy talk. To some degree, positional strategy is “baked into the board.” When I
assemble five or six running backs before any other position in my overall ranks, I’m tacitly admitting
that RB is more important to fill early, if I can. And that’s because in the end, what we’re really talking
about when we talk about draft strategy is: scarcity. There are a lot of great quarterbacks in the league,
and even more QBs who might not be great but will get lots of work and produce decent-to-excellent
statistics. But that’s the point: in a single-QB league, despite all the talent at the position, I’m not going
to put any quarterbacks that high up on my draft board, because I know relatively speaking I can get
nearly as good a player (or stats that are nearly as good) later in my draft. To a lesser extent, I feel the
same about tight ends, though I’ll admit Travis Kelce now strains against his shackles when I try to keep
him out of my first round. And certainly, once I get past the point where I’m drafting fantasy starters,
my mind is almost exclusively on scarcity: I’ll load up on RBs and WRs galore, because I know those
will be the positions where need is most deeply felt throughout the season. Bottom line: when you look
at my combined ranks at the end of this book, you’ll be able to tell where I think the biggest scarcity
lies, and how that affects my approach. But I’m always going to line up my board to err on the side of
players I like.
Frequently Asked Questions
• Where Are The Stat Projections? Oh buddy, you don’t need them. Trust me: you don’t.
Every stat projection you’ve ever been given by a fantasy expert came from either (a) a ranking,
and was retrofitted to make the guy in question “look like” the RB17, or (b) a spreadsheet in
which the projector decided they were sure what percentage of a team’s stats to give each player.
These are fine, they’re fun exercises, but they’re no more accurate than licking your finger and
sticking it in the wind. And when you put stat projections in profiles—trust me, at ESPN I did it
for years—all you do is distract readers from consideration of the only thing that matters: is the
dude in question good enough to play.
• Where Are The Auction Values? I love auctions. Unlike a snake draft, everyone has a crack
at every player. If every league I play in could be an auction, I’d do it. But I’ve been in hundreds
of auctions, and they’re all different. In one, Zeke Elliott might go for $57. In another, he
might go for $70. It depends on when the player is nominated, yes, but it also depends on how
the market gets set. That’s the beauty of an auction: it’s its own mini-market. It isn’t “wrong”
if the elite wideouts all go for $10 more than you expected. The first player whose name gets
nominated in an auction always brings some excitement, but also always winds up setting a
slightly different precedent. There’s no “right” amount to pay. That’s what a market determines!
The dirty not-so-secret, of course, is that a lot of predetermined auction values come from
fantasy-points-per-dollar. And where do fantasy-points-per-dollar come from? Stat projections!
• Why Don’t You Rank In Tiers? I get asked this so frequently. I guess some folks want
draft-day guardrails to be real so badly, they’re willing to suspend disbelief and believe in magic
powers. “Surely you, a person who thinks about this stuff all day, have found hard breaking
points between the 39th and 40th wideout on your list! Declare it a tier, and I will follow you!”
The exercise is just dumb. Make your own linear list of positional brethren. You mean to tell
me you find hard-and-fast differences between entire swaths of players? Trust me: anyone who’s
putting tiers in their ranks is just doing it because people whined. Linear ranks tell you, in order,
which players the ranker likes best next. And I’m even comfortable with the idea that sometimes,
that’s a stretch, they have a hard time distinguishing between RB34 and RB36. But please don’t
tell me that there are discernible classes at regular intervals at each position, worth drawing
bright lines between. It’s just not true.
• Why Aren’t There IDP Ranks? Unless you’re in a league that drafts double-digit players on
defense, you don’t need to worry about your IDP players until late late late in your draft. Tackles
aren’t that hard to come by, and more exotic stats (sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.) are
so scarce as to largely be unpredictable week to week. Brand new Arizona Cardinal J.J. Watt is
great in years he stays healthy. But on average, he probably isn’t getting you more than a sack per
game. Is Watt’s weekly marginal value over a random late-round DE worth reaching dozens of
picks for? Load up on scarce positions and take whoever you take late.
• Where Are Your Kicker Ranks? Right next to Cousin Josh’s Guide To Humility. They don’t
exist. Stop playing with kickers. From week-to-week, they’re random. You don’t need more
randomness in this dopey game.
Player Profile Features
The Almanac profiles are listed in order of my standard-league ranks, mostly because I think PPR is
a bad format. (PPR began as a remedy for running backs dominating fantasy football—think Larry
Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, etc.—and it felt unfair when you picked 10th and didn’t
have a crack at those guys. But short passing is so incredibly prevalent in the NFL now, all we’ve done
is reward dump-offs. Whee! You can find my PPR ranks at the end of the book.) Also, with apologies
to dynasty-league enthusiasts, the profiles are really written mostly from a redraft perspective. I’ll
occasionally weigh in on a young player’s long-term prospects, but I won’t lie: I’m mostly thinking about
2021. (But I do have dynasty ranks at the end of the book, too.)
Here’s an explanation about information the profiles try to communicate:
• AGE is the player’s age as of 12/31/21. (This is an NFL convention.)
• HEIGHT and WEIGHT are self-explanatory.
• INJURY refers to the number of games the player has missed due to injury over the past three
seasons combined. Sometimes this involves a judgment call; in the case of COVID-related absences,
I didn’t consider that an injury, since what we really care about are absences that result from
something that happened on the field.
For rookies, I also give an NFL COMPARISON, which is my best effort at projecting the known veteran
player I think that prospect is likeliest to become.
For veterans, I give more data and ratings. Yardage and touchdowns are self-explanatory. The other
numbers I include are:
• For QBs, WRs and TEs, AY@T is “average yards at the target,” which is to say how many air
yards, on average, passes traveled before they reached their intended target. This isn’t a perfect
metric, but it gives some broad sense of how players were used. In previous editions of the
Almanac, I used AY@C (“average yards at the catch”) which I find to be a little more persuasive,
but unfortunately my data source for that dried up.
• RBs, WRs and TEs have ROUTES/GAME, which indicate the number of times the player ran in
a pass pattern divided by the number of games he played.
• For RBs, BIG RUNS are running plays that went for 20 or more yards. This is another statistic
that doesn’t mean much on its own—how many of these runs were the results of defensive
incompetence? how many came on 3rd-and-30?—but it can add to the mosaic of a player’s
ability.
• Since they often share time at their own positions and it’s important to know who on the depth
chart is playing more, RBs and TEs have SNAPS/GAME. That’s the total of number of snaps they
played in ’20 divided by the number of games played.
• WRs have a SLOT %, which is the percentage of their routes they ran while lined up in the slot.
Again, this helps give context for how a player was used. However, being “merely” a slot receiver
is no longer the fantasy insult/curse it once was. CeeDee Lamb and Tyler Lockett were utilized
by their teams a ton from the slot last year, and I don’t think you’d say they’re dumpy slow guys
who can only go over the middle.
• TOP 12 FINISHES and TOP 24 FINISHES give the number of weeks the player finished with
enough fantasy points to qualify for these designations. (For RBs and WRs, I split these finishes
into standard and PPR.) This tends to be a very TD-heavy metric; some weeks, all a TE had to
do was catch one pass for one yard and a TD, and they finished in the top 12. So sometimes this
count simply reflects, “How many weeks did this dude find the end zone?” Still, it’s useful for
context, to see how spread out each player’s fantasy production was.
• All veterans have “A+ thru F” FILM GRADES across several dimensions. These are plainly
subjective, based on my own study (a) over the years; (b) while watching every game weekby-week in ’20; and (c) re-watching film this summer. Any film grade that changed from last
season’s Almanac is indicated by a bolded font. Note that film grades for second-year players are
entirely new—since I don’t give film grades to rookies—and thus bolded.
• SITUATION is my attempt at assessing everything outside the player himself, e.g., how friendly
or unfriendly the depth chart, game plans and other players will be. Like most of the other
subjective grades featured in the Almanac, it’s on an “A+ thru F” scale. Of course, a defining
principle of my philosophy is that we’re pretty bad at divining situations before they happen, so
please take this grade with a king-sized grain of salt.
• SENSITIVITY is an effort at defining how important each player’s situation might be to his
variance. If I give a player one checkmark for “situation,” what I’m saying is: this player drives
the bus. He doesn’t need everything to work out perfectly around him in order to produce good
fantasy value. And if I’m giving him five checkmarks (the max), I’m telling you: he’ll be more
of a passenger to his situation than a driver. If things go great for the entire offense, sweet, he’ll
likely benefit. If things don’t work out like that, you’re probably not getting fantasy greatness.
• RANKS RANGE presents the highest and lowest potential rank I believe is likely for that player,
assuming he and everyone else stays healthy.
• ’20 PRESEASON RANK and ’20 FINAL RANK should be intuitive, except that for anyone who
I ranked outside the number of players I ranked at each position (80 for RBs and WRs, 40 for
TEs) and anyone who finished outside that group, I just put “N/A.”
Finally, you’ll also find a set of “Harris’s Research Projects” in which I posed a common question about
a linchpin player and tried to answer by diving into historical statistics. And you’ll also see “Cousin Josh
Says…” sections, in which everyone’s favorite (?) podcast guest offers his trashbaggy opinion on more
divisive players.
A Note About Film Grades
So listen: they’re subjective. I do my best. I watched lots of film, I tried to assess what I was seeing…
but of course, in the case of many veterans, I’m also relying on some institutional memory and some
preexisting biases and maybe I’m just not seeing what you’re seeing, and that’s fair. I can’t claim to
sit down every day and forget every single thing I ever knew about Terry McLaurin’s speed. He’s fast!
That’s going to factor into my thinking. But I tried!
I also should mention that when I’m talking “End Zone” grades for WRs, I’m accounting for the full
range of skills that get a wideout work in the end zone. That certainly includes height and jumping
ability, but it can include quickness, too. Some dudes can just get open in tight quarters.
Also, I’ll admit: I always start out trying to avoid grade inflation. I’d love to have a nice, even spread
among all the grades in each category at each position. After all, while these men aren’t a “D” in
anything compared to most of the human race, some are definitively better than others. Alas, sometimes
I couldn’t stick to the curve. I looked at my try-hard students and couldn’t always make “C” the average
grade.
Notes On Second-Edition Updates
Changes made for the August 13th update are demarcated in red:
• Any player whose rank changed from the first edition has a red star
by his name.
• When the multi-slot upgrade or downgrade of a player’s rank made several players around him move
up or down one slot, I usually didn’t put a star beside those other players’ new ranks.
• Any player whose profile required re-writing based on current events, the new writing appears in red.
• I did make small insertions and deletions, for sense, without demarcating every single change in red.
I also didn’t make note of sentences that were deleted outright. If you’ve already read a profile from a
previous edition and nothing appears in red, don’t worry, even if a few words changed, you got the gist.
Notes On Third-Edition Updates
Changes made for the August 27th update are demarcated in bold blue:
• Any player whose rank changed from the first edition has a blue star
by his name.
• When the multi-slot upgrade or downgrade of a player’s rank made several players around him move
up or down one slot, I usually didn’t put a star beside those other players’ new ranks.
• Any player whose profile required re-writing based on current events, the new writing appears in blue.
• I did make small insertions and deletions, for sense, without demarcating every single change in blue.
I also didn’t make note of sentences that were deleted outright. If you’ve already read a profile from a
previous edition and nothing appears in red, don’t worry, even if a few words changed, you got the gist.
• Also I inserted a “flag” icon beside the names of the 10 Flag Players from the podcast.
Thank Yous
Thanks to Dillon McGaughey, Travis Souders, Rob Marantz and Josh Fischberg for your time and
patience in helping me put this thing together.
And thanks to you, dear reader, for supporting my podcast, the YouTube show, and this goofball
document. I hope you learn a lot, I hope you win your league, and I hope you find it fun. Remember to
tune into the Harris Football Podcast Monday through Friday from August through December!
Thanks again!
-Chris
Crutch Arguments
Over the years, the term “crutch argument” has spread at least a little bit across fantasy football. Now
guests come on the podcast and repeat the term back to me, which is weird! Long ago, I was new to this
goofy industry and casting around for a term that expressed my frustration with a particular kind of
facile argument made for and against NFL players. I noticed a—shall we say—lack of intellectual rigor. I
noticed how some folks would decide whether or not they liked a player, and only then come up with a
reason.
It was the reasons.
Honestly, that’s what so many of my objections come down to. I’m absolutely cool if you don’t agree
with me on a player, or a team, or anything else. I don’t always (or even usually!) know what’s going
to happen. I haven’t cornered the market on future juice. But as in so many things in life, my ability to
take a position or an argument seriously comes down to the reasons. If all you can do to explain your
reasons is spout clichés, or point to “evidence” that doesn’t track, or use facts that don’t even necessarily
imply that your position or argument is true…well, everybody’s entitled to their own opinion, but you’re
probably not going to sway me.
And so it’s the reasons we care about…we should have real reasons to feel the way we do. And in all
walks of life, if the people giving you advice can’t give you valid reasons to follow…it’s probably time
not to follow them. In the case of the term “crutch argument,” it was simply that I noticed a simplistic
and convenient set of “reasons” for having opinions on players that weren’t really reasons at all, and that
sometimes in fact could be twisted to support the exact opposite opinion. These arguments, therefore,
were “crutches” to help the opinion-haver limp along to the conclusion they wanted to reach all along.
The better we get at noticing these non-reasons, the faster we can dismiss the opinion-haver from our
thought process. Let’s dig in.
Pure Crutches
Quarterbacks Who’ll Always Be Playing From Behind
Let’s set aside for a moment the obvious fallacy behind this contention, which is: before a season begins,
we’re not great at knowing who the truly rancid teams will be, and who’ll actually spend the most time
playing with large deficits. Even the Vegas over/under win totals are wrong to a notorious degree every
year. But let’s set that aside. Let’s say we know that a QB will face big deficits in many of his games. Is
that an argument for or against that QB? If you want to make the “for” argument, you’d say, “Excellent,
I want my guy to be trailing all the time, that means they’ll have to throw like crazy and that means
big stats!” If you want to make the “against” argument, you’d say, “Uh-oh, bad teams tend to score the
fewest points, no thank you.” I mean, if players who always trail on the scoreboard were such a source
of fantasy gold, wouldn’t Gardner Minshew have been fantasy MVP last year? Minshew had the most
pass attempts with his team trailing by 14+ points: 173 throws, a whopping 54 more than the secondplace finisher, Drew Lock. Unless I’m mistaken, neither Minshew or Lock was a positive fantasy asset
in 2020. For every legendary Blake Bortles season in which the QB became a fantasy starter thanks
to garbage time, I can point to a Dwayne Haskins year where the hole just gets deeper. If you hear an
analyst still using this crutch in ’21, run away.
Team Signed A New Receiver
I’ve sat in rankings meetings and literally—LITERALLY—had this crutch used to defend one receiver,
and ten minutes later heard it used to diss another. You can probably see how this works. If you want to
argue in favor of an incumbent receiver, you say, “Yes! Signing a legit #2 pass target will finally remove
the specter of double teams, and my man will get many singled-up looks and zone coverages, which
will improve his efficiency and lead to glory.” And if you want to argue against the incumbent, you say,
“Well, there are only so many targets to go around, and this new free-agent signee is a good player.
I’m worried that the #1’s volume goes down, and therefore so does his production.” The only thing
that’s absolutely true here is that, yes, the team did add a receiver. But the outcome for other players
on the team isn’t automatically implied. Either can be true. In ’20, Stefon Diggs joined the Bills and
Cole Beasley had the best season of his nine-year career. Robby Anderson joined the Panthers and D.J.
Moore’s stat line didn’t budge. As in most things in life, these situations are more nuanced than applying
a big, broad rule.
New Offensive Linemen Have Joined
If you want to make an argument in favor of a skill player, you can invoke the name of the big-ticket
free-agent tackle who’ll be blocking for him, or the early-round draftee who’ll no doubt make an
immediate impact. If you want to make an argument against that same skill player, you can mention
those same new o-line names, and contend that new blocking units often don’t gel immediately. And
I’ve heard both crutches, and the fact is that neither result is automatically implied by the stimulus. Do
we sometimes look back at a high-ticket o-line signing and view it as a rallying point around which the
entire offense improved? Surely! Andrew Whitworth joining the Rams in ’17 is credited as one of that
team’s major pivot points as they became Super Bowl participants. But may I list for you the highestticket OL acquisitions of ’20? Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Lions), Graham Glasgow (Broncos), Jack Conklin
(Browns), Bryan Bulaga (Chargers), Ereck Flowers (Dolphins) and George Fant ( Jets). Safe to say not
all those offenses improved. Similarly, sometimes you’ll hear an analyst use the added fact of a highly
drafted rookie as a reason to like or dislike a surrounding skill player. Andrew Thomas (#4 Giants),
Jedrick Wills (#10 Browns), Mekhi Becton (#11 Jets), Tristan Wirfs (#12 Buccaneers), Austin Jackson
(#18 Dolphins), Cesar Ruiz (#24 Saints) and Isaiah Wilson (#29 Titans) went in the first round. If
there’s an “automatic pattern” to be found for those who spent high picks on linemen, I can’t see it here.
In the NFL media, blind hope springs eternal (and sells newspapers), so any change a team has made
will be spun as a reason to believe things will get better. Except often things don’t get better, at least not
right away. And yet, if you take the opposite tack—that instability and a new blend isn’t something you
want to rely on right away—you can actually miss out on an offense taking a big jump.
He’s In A Contract Year
I still hear it. In an era where data is so readily available, it feels like we should be beyond explanations
for player love/hate that revolve around “motivation.” But we’re not. Turn on a cacklefest NFL studio
show or old-think podcast and motivation is probably the thing you hear invoked most. Motivation,
body language, locker room quotes, bulletin board material…they are the domain of the armchair
psychologist and the lazy, lazy analyst. I’ll never proclaim that athletes aren’t human, and don’t react
to stimuli differently. I just don’t believe we can know who’s who. Who evinces bad body language but
performs anyway. Who needs an extra kick in the pants provided by a disrespectful quote. Who gets
sullen at the first perceived slight and slacks off. Like all people, these athletes contain multitudes. If
you’re drafting based on who “looks sulky,” good luck to you. And of course, “he’s in a contract year”
is the ultimate litmus test of how gullible we are to this kind of nonsense. Usually, it’s invoked to imply
extra motivation, super focus, because unlike other years, this season the dude will try, because he wants
to get paid. But sometimes it’s used to imply that the player in question is destined to crash because
he’s soft. The numbers? Of course the numbers tell us that there’s no appreciable uptick or downtick in
performance in contract years as opposed to any other years. But why let that get in the way of a good
ex-jock quote on your favorite inane morning football show!
Other Terrible Reasons
His Workshare Will Be High
This is the new tyrant in the room. A whole lot of people are convinced that they have the magic
depth-chart divining rod: that they can simply look at an NFL roster and know exactly where the
targets and carries will land. Obviously, in a lot of cases, that doesn’t require a ton of skill; as long as
he’s healthy, Derrick Henry will probably have a fine workload. But in murkier situations, it can lead
to unwarranted unbridled enthusiasm. While it’s absolutely true that an NFL team is going to radiate
400+ pass attempts and 300+ rush attempts no matter what, penciling non-stars whose talent you either
don’t like or haven’t taken the time to analyze gets you into trouble. We’re all old enough to remember
2020, when there was nobody to get in the way of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and DeVante Parker and
Miles Sanders and Henry Ruggs and Leonard Fournette. I could go on. It’s true that someone has to get
work, but often it’s not the dude you expect. None of this is to say you should only draft players whose
situations you’re sure about. Rather, it’s to request that you dig deeper and make a decision about a
player’s talent before deciding he’ll earn a big role.
A corollary to this is the notion that a former understudy will automatically inherit the workshare of a
departing starter. We’ll get another round of this in ’21: Julio Jones leaves the Falcons, Kenny Golladay
leaves the Lions, Kenyan Drake leaves the Cardinals. So some of us rush to immediately dump a big
target or carry share on a new guy. “Oh boy,” goes the argument, “in that system, the slot receiver is
huge! The tight end is a must! The deep threat will get fed!” But the fact is: players earn big workloads.
They earn them because they’re good. And NFL teams learn whether the replacement players are as
good! If they’re not, well, you’re not going to see a team fruitlessly funnel a workload the inheritor’s
way all season just because “that’s the way we’ve always done it.” Teams that don’t change personnel
evolve their strategies from year to year; teams who do change personnel often rethink everything. Rob
Gronkowski departed from the Patriots in ’19, leaving behind 100+ annual targets. Did New England
just plug in Ben Watson or Matt LaCosse and feed them those targets? They did not. (Those two players
combined for 43 targets all that year.) None of this is to say that a new player can’t directly inherit a
big workshare. It’s to say: he’ll do it if his talent justifies it. Beware workshare arguments that don’t
invoke talent.
They Used So Much Draft Capital On Him, They Have To Use Him
Tell it to Henry Ruggs! NFL teams are getting better at viewing bad draft choices as sunk costs, even
early on. But let’s set aside busts, and just talk about run-of-the-mill high skill-position draft picks.
They disappoint us a lot. Statistically speaking, a running back taken in the first or second round is
almost equally likely to have fewer than 150 touches as a rookie than he is to have more than 200. A
receiver taken in Rounds 1 or 2 is more likely to catch fewer than 40 balls than he is to catch more than
60. Does that mean you should always stay away from rookies? Not necessarily. But it does mean you
should maintain an air of skepticism. Especially as today’s NFL offenses diversify and rely on one guy
less, a first-year player is often merely a part of his new team’s attack in that first year.
Watch Out For That Strength Of Schedule
I can’t stress it enough: last year’s record isn’t a great predictor of this year’s record. It just isn’t, both
because teams reinvent themselves so thoroughly from year to year, and because the line between wins
and losses is often so frustratingly thin. And yet every year, the dopey NFL media centers an entire
episode of whatever show they’re doing around that one full-screen graphic listing “Which Team Has
The Easiest Schedule This Year?” that’s just a list of the combined winning percentage of this year’s
opponents in last year’s games. We don’t know what’s going to happen. That’s why football is great.
Embrace the chaos.
Home/Road Splits
This gets perilously close to the “motivation” discussion to which I alluded above. In these days of
private team planes and five-star accommodations, can someone please tell me why a player would be
“bad on the road”? Now, there’s no question that crowd noise is worth something. There’s a reason
Vegas gives two or three points to the home teams (when there are fans in the stands) in its lines.
But the idea that certain players are simply crippled by not getting to sleep in their own beds is so
overworked as to be threadbare. We had to listen to this in regard to Ben Roethlisberger for years—
“can’t play him on the road!”—until the recent times, when Big Ben mysteriously started producing
better road games. This just isn’t a thing. And the reason it’s not a thing is that we’re talking about such
small sample sizes. Flip a coin 16 times, you’re probably not gonna get eight heads. And sometimes, you
might even get 12 heads! Does that mean the coin is better at home than on the road? If you want to
tell me you’re slightly in favor of QBs who get to play more dome games? Yes, there’s a slight (but only
slight) historical trend in which the average QB will produce a few ratings points higher indoors than
outdoors. (In fact, crowd noise historically is a bigger factor than indoors/outdoors.) But if someone is
telling you to build lineups around home/road, don’t listen.
Those Guys Worked Together In The Offseason
When you tune your ears to it, you can easily begin to pick out the boilerplate training camp nonsense.
Inevitably, in every NFL city this summer, some beat reporter will write a story about the tight bond
that’s developed between a QB and his WR, or a RB and his offensive line, as a result of extra work,
joint vacations and/or psychic spa treatments. I won’t argue chemistry isn’t real. I will argue that to
predict chemistry based on stuff athletes or coaches say is useless and patronizing. Show me the NFL
players who come to camp and don’t talk about what great chemistry everyone has developed, what a
connection they have, what a band of brothers they all are. People. C’mon. You’re starting to sound like
brandbots. It’s page-filling nonsense. Flush it out of your mind.
He’s Added 15 Pounds Of Muscle
Every summer I ask myself how a beat reporter can actually write about a player being in “the best
shape of his life” without collapsing into a puddle of giggles. And yet every summer, there it is.
Yards. Per. Carry.
It is the bête noire of the Little Podcast That Could. I feel like we’ve made some progress at least in some
fantasy football corners, shrieking whenever someone invokes YPC as a reason to like or dislike a player.
I know for sure that many guests come on my show saying, “I know you won’t let me get away with
quoting YPC…” But it’s still presented as a trump card in so many quarters. And it’s a terrible stat.
Mathematicians will tell you YPC isn’t sticky from season to season, and it certainly isn’t sticky from
game to game. Folks want it to be batting average, and it just isn’t. Batting average is based on a binary:
a one for a hit, a zero for an out. YPC gets incredibly skewed by one long run, even if that run isn’t
really the result of the back’s ability. Over time, do the best RBs in history tend to post good percarry averages? Surely! But my point is that you didn’t need YPC to discover that they were good…you
could just watch them play. When YPC is invoked as a capstone to a Hall-of-Fame career, I’m happy
to doff my cap and be impressed. But when it’s invoked as a reason to like some schmo I can tell isn’t
actually good, or when it’s invoked as a reason not to like someone I think has real talent, it boils my
britches. Over the NFL’s history, we can point to hundreds of outlier high YPC seasons that were never
duplicated, because they weren’t actually reflective of the RB’s talent. As in the case of every argument
I’ve outlined in this section: it’s all about reasons. If YPC is a reason someone is using to justify liking or
disliking a player, be wary.
BECOME A PERSON OF THE BOOK
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Slotback Rhapsody
The Big Clear
War On Sound
Tulsa
At 27 years old,
undersized but talented
Nick “Mouse” Morrison
has yet to realize his
dreams. After several
unsuccessful training
camps, Nick decides a
minicamp in Detroit
will be his last go-round
in pro football. Slotback
Rhapsody is Friday Night
Lights all grown up.
Kid Centrifuge is a rock
band with dreams no
bigger than other rock
bands: ho-hum, tour and
get signed and be famous
and change the universe.
Alas, unlike their rockmusic forebears, our
heroes live in a world
that has largely moved
on to techno, dance and
pop.
Dub Storm is a stoner,
which wouldn’t be so
bad if he didn’t also
know 101 ways to kill
a man. A former Special
Forces sniper, Dub has
become a private eye. He
gets hired over one long,
eventful weekend to find
the kidnapped scion of
Austin’s foremost real
estate family. Harsh
developments ensue.
All the electricity has
gone out, nobody knows
why, and it’s five months
later. Food is scarce, and
gas is scarcer. The world
isn’t sudden chaos: it’s
simply quiet and lost.
Survival depends on
trusting the right people,
and staying away from
the wrong ones. But
how can you tell the
difference?
1. PATRICK MAHOMES KC
Age: 26 • 6’3” • 230 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
4,740 Pass YD • 38 Pass TD • 6 INT • 8.2 AY@T (67th%) • 308 Rush YD • 2 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 10 • Top 24 Finishes: 15
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A+ • Accuracy: B • Vision: B • Running: B+ • Situation: A • Sensitivity: ü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 1
’20 Final Rank: 4
’21 Ranks Range: 1-3
Here’s why everybody is stupid.
(That’s a pretty cool way to start the first profile in an Almanac, right? They tell you to distill what you
believe into the pithiest possible statement, and plunk it right down as the first thing the reader reads—
they call it a “lede”—and by golly, I just wrote a dang lede!)
Year over year in fantasy football, the market changes opinions too much! We should have a philosophy
and stick to it! A single NFL season shouldn’t be enough data to overturn our draft strategies, yet here
we go again with Mr. Mahomes and his positional brethren.
There isn’t a lot of doubt who the first quarterback off the draft board should be. Mahomes finished
fourth in QB fantasy points on a technicality: the Chiefs rested their starters in Week 17. Had Mahomes
submitted an average game in a meaningless contest, he’d have been QB1. He was terrific all season
despite his team never finding a run game, though his playoffs were marked by drama: Mahomes got
knocked out of the AFC Divisional round with a concussion and also suffered a turf toe injury that
required surgery after the season. But really, there’s no need to get fancy. He’s the best player in the
sport.
So I’ll devote the rest of this first profile to note that after his historical and shocking ascension to his
current throne in 2018, Mahomes became a hipster choice to be drafted in the first round. Then, after
Mahomes’s ’19 season got interrupted by a high-ankle sprain, consensus had it that you should once
again never take a quarterback in the first round. And now here we are again: after as many as five
QBs (including Mahomes) were league-winners in ’20, there are experts who’ll again tell you to grab
someone at the position at your first round’s tail end.
But here’s the thing: ’20 was a freakshow. So many early picks got hurt! Barkley, McCaffrey, Thomas,
Mixon, Julio, Ekeler, Godwin, Kittle, Golladay, Beckham…superstars who produced so little that it’s
unsurprising the league’s best QBs lapped the field. If you’re telling me you’re positive that half the ’21
first round will again take the pipe, then sure: it makes sense to bank huge points with the best fantasy
signal callers. However assuming you aren’t able to forecast another series of cataclysmic injuries to
the NFL’s best players, we’re still better off taking scarcer positions at the very top of our drafts. Justin
Herbert also played 15 games last year, and scored around 42 fantasy points fewer than Mahomes (a.k.a.
less than three per week). The point isn’t that Mahomes isn’t great, because he is. The point is that we
shouldn’t change the way we think about drafts just because a bunch of high-profile RBs and WRs got
hurt in ’20. You can still find QB solutions—often off the waiver wire—who can give you terrific fantasy
productivity without blowing a first-round pick on the position.
2. AARON RODGERS GB
Age: 38 • 6’2” • 225 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
4,299 Pass YD • 48 Pass TD • 5 INT • 7.8 AY@T (52nd%) • 149 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 13 • Top 24 Finishes: 15
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A+ • Accuracy: A • Vision: A+ • Running: C- • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 6
’20 Final Rank: 2
’21 Ranks Range: 1-7
I wasn’t going to write this profile.
I was going to leave Aaron Rodgers on the “TBD” list for as long as possible, because of his feud
with the Packers. He’s allowed his minions to leak all kinds of unflattering opinions about the people
who run his franchise. At various times through the winter and spring, it sounded like the chances of
Rodgers returning to Green Bay were tiny. I never believed it, and I told you so. I figured he’d be back
and sure enough, he reported to training camp on time in late July. But that doesn’t mean he can’t
change his mind.
Is Rodgers a diva troll? I guess. Maybe I don’t care that much. We make a mistake when we think we
know these people. Maybe in addition to being one of the all-time greats, Rodgers is, in fact, a jerk.
I’m not sure why it matters. Because he’s still absolutely amazing. Faced with the strongest doubt of his
13-year starting career, A-Rod delivered an all-timer of a campaign. In last year’s profile, I invoked the
possibility that the team using a first-round pick on Jordan Love could do for Rodgers what the drafting
of Jimmy Garoppolo did for Tom Brady in ’14, and maybe that’s what happened. Or maybe Rodgers
stayed healthy and his natural awesomeness shone through. Either way, he tossed 48 TDs and 5 INTs
and won his third MVP award.
We all know that Rodgers’s complaints about his receiving cast have been well-founded. Davante Adams
is amazing, but the fact that he’s had to use the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison,
Allen Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown in major roles the past couple years is laughable. Perhaps
Randall Cobb’s late-July return diversifies the passing game a bit, or maybe rookie third-rounder Amari
Rodgers takes the team by storm. Aaron Jones signed a big new deal, A.J. Dillon will play. The offensive
line was tremendous in ’20 (though left tackle David Bakhtiari tore his ACL late and center Corey
Linsley left for the Chargers). This team should once again be very good.
And yet I get the feeling that’s still not good enough for some fantasy advisors. They think a collapse is
coming because Rodgers doesn’t offer squishy feel-good quotes. Or they luxuriate in QB rushing yards,
and turn up their noses at latter-day A-Rod and his sub-200-rush-yard output. I say phooey! Listen,
the cheat code is real, and if there were electric rushers who didn’t have lingering questions about their
arm productivity, I would rank them ahead of Rodgers. But everyone else on this QB list comes with
enough question marks that I’ll just take Rodgers in the early/mid rounds and live with modest ground
production. Will he pass for 48 TDs again? Probably not. That’s okay: 40 will do.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
To start training camp, I have Rodgers as my QB9, and that doesn’t have anything to
do with him hosting a game show or chilling out on the weekend running around on
the sand. It really is because I legitimately like eight guys better than Rodgers. Harris
will hate this, but I look at last year’s stat line and think it’s just not repeatable. A-Rod
is part of the F.U. Phylum. ‘When I get to the 2-yard-line, I do whatever I want.’ I agree
that’s an amazing thing to have for fantasy when it works, but those TD rates are just
ridiculous. Anyone who watches the games…how many of those 48 TD passes in ’20
were three-yard outs to Davante Adams at the goal line? ‘Oh, it didn’t work? Let’s
throw it again!’ At some point somebody reins this guy in. That’s probably what they’re
fighting about in Green Bay. ‘Rodgers! Let Aaron Jones score!’ And Rodgers goes,
‘Screw you,’ and flings another option-pass to an offensive lineman.”
3. JOSH ALLEN BUF
Age: 25 • 6’5” • 237 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
4,544 Pass YD • 37 Pass TD • 10 INT • 8.2 AY@T (73rd%) • 421 Rush YD • 8 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 16
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A+ • Accuracy: B+ • Vision: B • Running: A • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 9
’20 Final Rank: 1
’21 Ranks Range: 1-10
Was there anything on Josh Allen’s film from his first two seasons to make us believe this kind of thirdtime-around breakout was coming? Not much! Before the 2020 season, I’m pretty sure Allen sat down
and watched Godfather III, Dark Knight Rises, Matrix Revolutions, Rise Of Skywalker and Terminator 3, and
decided, “I’m gonna do the opposite of that!”
Stefon Diggs is a hell of a drug.
Well, of course, it wasn’t all Stefon Diggity. Allen’s third-year film simply doesn’t bear that much
resemblance to what he laid down before. It wasn’t a shock Week 1 to see him shrug off a blitzing
Marcus Maye coming at him full speed, and then rush for 16 yards out of nothing. It’s the kind of play
maybe only Allen and prime Cam Newton could pull off, but that, he’d done. But Allen hadn’t thrown
for 300 yards in any of his first 28 starts, and he did it eight times in ’20. You saw touch throws, deep
crossers that required patience and timing…it was an absolutely different play-calling approach from
Allen’s first two seasons, because apparently Sean McDermott saw what his young signal caller had
grown into before the rest of us did. (The next time someone tells you they’re positive an offense will
be “too run-heavy” to be useful for fantasy, just remember the Bills’ offensive transformation.) There
were so many knock-kneed, careless throws on Allen’s first two years of film, and so many beautiful
frozen ropes last year. We’re not surprised he rushed for eight TDs; he’s now done at least that in all
three of his seasons. But improving his completion rate by nearly 20% on his attempts that traveled 20+
yards? That’s not only Diggs. Allen really did take a crazy leap forward.
The question for ’21 is whether he can consolidate it, and prove he’s a year-in year-out great player.
Running alone isn’t enough. (Lamar Jackson is waving hello.) I admit, when a guy who’s shown so
little as a passer suddenly looks like one of the best throwers in the league, part of me wants to hang
back and make sure he can do it again. But at some point we just have to take the plunge. The rushing
TDs are real and spectacular and should provide some floor, and at least we now know Allen has this
combination of arm strength and accuracy lurking in him. Might we look back after the fourth time
around and decide ’20 was a fluke? It’s possible. Then again, Josh Allen spent all winter re-watching
Mad Max Fury Road, so….
4. RUSSELL WILSON SEA
Age: 33 • 5’11” • 215 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
4,212 Pass YD • 40 Pass TD • 13 INT • 8.0 AY@T (64th%) • 513 Rush YD • 2 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 15
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A • Accuracy: A- • Vision: B- • Running: A- • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 4
’20 Final Rank: 6
’21 Ranks Range: 1-8
Have we reached the Russell Wilson Inflection Point? Has the market finally decided he’s a great player
and thus valued him appropriately? Maybe, and that’s a bummer, because I’ve enjoyed nothing more than
pocketing the World’s Corniest Quarterback in the sixth round every year, then watching him blow up.
So listen. It appears all is not cookies-and-cream in the Emerald City. There’s enough leakage from
Wilson’s p.r. machine about the QB’s dissatisfaction with the offensive line and the play calling (and a
contract that has no guaranteed money after 2021) to believe it’s possible that Russ will take the felt
pens and inspirational whiteboard I can only assume he totes around with him wherever he goes, and
play in a different city someday. But not this year.
And that means Wilson is likely to be valued in the top five among fantasy QBs for ’21, as he should be.
He’s got DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as blistering weapons. He’s got new offensive coordinator Shane
Waldron coming over from the Rams to replace Brian Schottenheimer. And he even rushed for 513
yards in ’20, settling down the Cheat-Code-Only crowd.
Listen, the Seahawks offense grew increasingly hard to watch in the second half of last season. Defenses
learned that passing game Plans A, B and C were to throw straight-drop deep balls, and started to take
them away. On throws of 20+ air yards in his first eight games, Wilson was 15-for-36 for 646 yards
and seven TDs, which helped elevate him to MVP contention. In the season’s second half? He was 7-for27 for 231 yards and two TDs on such throws. With Waldron calling plays, expect more play-action,
less emphasis on Wilson scrambling to allow receivers to get open, and more quick tight-window tosses
which Russ absolutely has the wing and the accuracy to execute. That, in turn, should allow for the
occasional freestyle scrambling miracle that Wilson has made his calling card, and which should keep
Metcalf and Lockett near the top of their own fantasy rolls. No, there’s probably not much arbitrage
value left drafting Wilson. He’s gonna go about where he should. But if you’re willing to pay that price,
he’ll deliver.
5. KYLER MURRAY ARI
Pod nickname:
Chicken Strips
Age: 24 • 5’10” • 207 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
3,971 Pass YD • 26 Pass TD • 12 INT • 7.4 AY@T (31st%) • 819 Rush YD • 11 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 11 • Top 24 Finishes: 14
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A • Accuracy: B- • Vision: C- • Running: A+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 5
’20 Final Rank: 4
’21 Ranks Range: 1-10
Remember that Built To Spill song “Untrustable Part 2”? Oh, you don’t, because you’re not a thousand
years old? Well excuse me.
I wish I trusted Kyler Murray a little more as a thrower. I want to love him, but so many times on the
podcast in 2020 I’d review his film and say something like, “Well, as a thrower he’s not quite there,”
and “Oh, boy, he probably could’ve thrown five interceptions in this game,” but then of course I’d also
go on to say, “Yeah, and none of that matters because the little dude ran for another 60 yards and a
touchdown.” The fact is, though, that while the Cardinals did a good job improving their execrable
offensive line and built their defense from terrible to average, they haven’t yet transformed Murray into
a winning big-league QB.
And, for that matter, they also haven’t gotten winning big-league coaching out of Kliff Kingsbury, which
is probably more worrisome. Rescuing a Week 10 win against the Bills via Hail Mary was exhilarating,
but overall the Cardinals had way too many penalties, way too many blown assignments, way too many
bubble screens on 3rd-and-long…all signs of iffy coaching. After Murray suffered a midseason shoulder
injury and temporarily stopped scrambling, he was hard to watch (or start on a fantasy team) and the
team nosedived out of first place. DeAndre Hopkins made a predictable difference in the possession
game because he’s a monster, but (save the Hail Mary) wasn’t the downfield weapon he historically was
in Houston. You can see how all the pieces might fit into a high-functioning championship-style offense,
but it’s fair to wonder if Kingsbury is the one to make it happen.
And yet of course I’ll still rank Murray fifth because the cheat code matters. It was the rare defense that
could contain him on the ground in ’20—the Patriots in Week 12 come to mind, blitzing the living hell
out of Arizona and containing Murray around the edges—and the guy is just so quick and fast. We need
to be careful not to emphasize a QB’s running skills too much; that’s how you get folks drafting Lamar
Jackson in the first round last year. But Murray had enough good flashes as a passer (and is young
enough) to believe that he can complement his rush yards with the occasional big aerial game, too. And
someday perhaps he’ll become truly trustable (part 2).
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Should we worry about QBs whose biggest advantage
comes on the ground?
I do a variation on this research project every year, but as the game changes (for the better!)
to being more accepting of different athletes playing quarterback, it’s worth checking in on
recent and less-recent history. QBs who earn 30% of their fantasy points on running plays are
a fairly recent phenomenon, and also fairly rare. And really fun to watch! The question is can
they sustain it, and what happens when they don’t. Here’s everyone over the past 11 years who
finished as a top-12 fantasy QB with at least 30% of their points coming from rushing:
Player
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson
Robert Griffin
Cam Newton
Michael Vick
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Cam Newton
Tyrod Taylor
Josh Allen
Cam Newton
Season
2020
2019
2012
2011
2010
2014
2020
2012
2016
2019
2017
% Rush Points
36.7%
36.1%
35.4%
35.0%
34.5%
34.2%
32.8%
31.3%
30.9%
30.4%
30.3%
Finish
10th
1st
5th
3rd
1st
3rd
3rd
4th
8th
6th
2nd
% Rush Points Next Year
?
36.7%
15.9%
31.3%
21.9%
15.0%
?
26.5%
26.3%
18.3%
22.0%
Finish Next Year
?
10th
18th
4th
11th
3rd
?
3rd
16th
1st
12th
Obviously, I could just as easily have applied this research to Lamar Jackson’s profile! And I’m
actually not entirely sure what lessons this data teaches us. The best of all outcomes here would
be if Murray (and Jackson) turn out like Russell Wilson of ’14 or Josh Allen last year: transform
their games to become more complete passers, while still earning enough (and sometimes
more than enough) fantasy points on the ground. It also helps to be Cam Newton, who’s still
submitting elite rushing seasons in his 30s, and whose mediocre passing didn’t catch up to him
until late in his career. The worry we have is the RG3 worry, the Vick worry, the Tyrod worry...
rushing TDs are awesome! But they’re kind of random. If you don’t have the passing chops to
sustain yourself in a year when the rushing points ebb, you’re pretty meh. Speaking of which....
6. LAMAR JACKSON BAL
Pod nickname:
Cheat Code
Age: 24 • 6’2” • 212 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
2,757 Pass YD • 26 Pass TD • 9 INT • 8.3 AY@T (82nd%) • 1,005 Rush YD • 7 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 15
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A • Accuracy: C+ • Vision: C+ • Running: A+ • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 2
’20 Final Rank: 10
’21 Ranks Range: 1-10
Those great scholars Green Day once said, “I believe I’m a walking contradiction and I ain’t got no
right.” Were they opining about Lamar Jackson 23 years before his rookie season and two years before
his birth? I’ll leave that to the pop-punk PhDs. Also, Lamar’s best work doesn’t come when he’s walking.
In his first two full years starting for the Ravens, Jackson has produced two of the three greatest
quarterback rush-yard seasons of all time. He’s the greatest runner the position has ever known. That
gives him more weekly upside than any player in the sport, and makes him awesome. Aesthetically
speaking, if you don’t love watching Lamar Jackson run around on any given Sunday, you’re by
definition not a fun person.
The rest of his game, though, is potentially a problem. Jackson isn’t a bad thrower—in fact he has
terrific arm strength—and he’s not incapable of reading a defense. His best work comes throwing short
and intermediate over the middle, especially against zone. On film you see great timing and courage
standing in, getting his body convoluted, yet still completing impressive strikes to Mark Andrews
and Marquise Brown between the hashes. But Jackson famously complained that by the end of 2020,
defenses were calling out Baltimore’s plays before the snap, and he bears some of the responsibility.
He still hasn’t proven himself as an accurate downfield thrower, and there were times he just flat-out
refused to throw outside the numbers, even when he had an open man. (The playoff loss to Buffalo was
particularly galling in this regard.) The Ravens added two more wideouts in the draft—Rashod Bateman
and Tylan Wallace—and shouldn’t lack for pass-catching upside. But once the somewhat fluky big pass
TDs of ’19 abated (as I predicted they would in this spot last summer), Jackson struggled to provide
every-week fantasy value with his arm.
And we should really want Jackson’s game to become more balanced! The “walking contradiction” part
of a player like Lamar is that he’s an impossibly amazing runner, but the more he runs, the scarier it
gets. He takes so many hits. He’s by far the most-contacted QB over the past two seasons. He missed
Week 12 last year because of coronavirus, but he had to come out in Week 14 because of leg cramps
and suffered a concussion in the playoffs. Building your offense (and your fantasy team) mostly around
QB running is both awesome and terrifying. But Jackson is still young enough to emerge as a complete
thrower, which would once again see him threatening to win fantasy MVP. (I really wish he’d get
vaccinated, though. Jackson caught COVID again in training camp. Find something you love as
much as COVID loves Lamar Jackson.)
7. JUSTIN HERBERT LAC
Age: 23 • 6’6” • 236 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
4,336 Pass YD • 31 Pass TD • 10 INT • 7.3 AY@T (28th%) • 234 Rush YD • 5 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 14
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A • Accuracy: C+ • Vision: B • Running: B • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 35
’20 Final Rank: 9
’21 Ranks Range: 3-12
Justin Herbert’s rookie Almanac profile began with this amazingly prophetic statement:
“I’m not a huge fan of Herbert as a prospect.”
So, y’know, maybe in order to kill the fewest brain cells possible, you should just move on. When you
start from a place that stupid, the only thing left for me to do is actually jump out of this document,
A-Ha style, and smack you in the head with a two-by-four.
The problem that I—and many college scouts who are significantly smarter than I—had with Herbert
was his throwing mechanics. Nobody doubted his throwing arm or his size, but he spent most of his
college career passing with his feet out of alignment, plus often seemed hesitant to let the ball go until
his wideout broke clear, which tends to get you punished in the NFL. It was no shock that last year’s
#6 pick rode pine to begin the season. He wasn’t ready. We thought. Then the fickle needle of fate
punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung, and the Chargers didn’t have any choice. Herbert had to start.
And he was great! What can you say? You heard me call it on the podcast from the very beginning: it
was immediately obvious on an NFL field that Herbert has it. There was a throw in the third quarter
of that unexpected Week 2 start where Keenan Allen ran a deep seam route and the Chiefs had seven
guys back, the window was tiny, and ho hum Herbert just nailed it. Watching that one game, my
opinion changed, and I immediately said I thought Herbert’s early rookie-year performances were
more impressive than Joe Burrow’s, and that my valuation of the Chargers’ skill players just went up.
Herbert plays under control. His mechanics look fine. He takes the deep shot when it’s there. He was the
Offensive Rookie Of The Year in a season when his offensive line was terrible.
You might think a rank this high is an overreaction to my lack of enthusiasm last summer, and you
might worry about drafting a non-cheat-code QB to be your starter. (Herbert’s scrambling mobility is
solid for a big dude, but he’s not always the most pocket-aware, and the Chargers aren’t calling running
plays for him.) All I can say is: put in the Week 15 tape against the Raiders, where Herbert is playing
with a hobbled Allen, and you’ll believe. This kid is one of the most exciting passing prospects of the
past decade.
8. DAK PRESCOTT DAL
Age: 28 • 6’2” • 238 lbs • Injury: 11
2020 Stats:
1,856 Pass YD • 9 Pass TD • 4 INT • 7.8 AY@T • 93 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
5 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 5
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: B- • Vision: C • Running: B+? • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 8
’20 Final Rank: 32
’21 Ranks Range: 4-12
Of all the misbegotten seasons NFL teams had in 2020, the Cowboys’ bore the closest resemblance to
Franklin’s Lost Expedition. In 1845, two British ships sought a new section of the Northwest Passage,
became icebound for more than a year, ate each other, and the entire 129-man crew eventually died.
Just as ominously, last year Jerry Jones had to watch Andy Dalton play football.
Prescott gruesomely broke his leg in Week 5 against the Giants. But that’s not all that went wrong in
Big D. Zeke Elliott seemed a shadow of himself. Relatedly, the offensive line was decimated for the
second straight year and couldn’t block Aunt Nora. The middle linebackers kept breaking their necks.
And the defense in general was laughably soft. And because so many things went wrong, it’s difficult to
draw any set conclusions for ’21 based on last year’s game film.
But I can tell you this: in September, Prescott wasn’t as good as his numbers indicate. In Week 2 against
the Falcons, an Elliott fumble helped dig a 29-10 hole which Dak helped furiously overcome (and
needed an onside kick to finish off). In Week 3 against the Seahawks, Prescott threw a pick and lost a
fumble to dig a 30-15 hole, which he racked up big stats trying to vanquish. And Week 4 against the
Browns, a Prescott fumble was complicit in digging a 41-14 hole he then padded his stats trying to get
out of. Listen, it’s good to know Prescott is capable of putting up three straight 400-yard days when the
moment calls for it, but you’re crazy if you don’t think Dak’s “big stat output” during his limited ’20
engagement doesn’t have the Whiff Of Bortles about it.
That said, Prescott is a good player. He’s not the best. He has a fine arm that doesn’t wow you—it’s fair
to be concerned about a shoulder issue that’s caused him to miss most of training camp, but the
Cowboys still maintain he’ll be ready for Week 1—he’ll make more mistakes than you’re comfortable
with, and he’ll almost always drag his team back in situations where you’re sure they’re dead. After
a couple years of will-they-or-won’t-they, the Cowboys rewarded Dak with a franchise-cornerstone
contract, and I have no problem with it. There’s a world where the o-line finally returns to health,
Elliott excels as a result, the deep wideout corps gets more consistent, and Prescott once again sniffs a
top-five fantasy finish. Well, but it seems likelier Dak follows his usual pattern: boom weeks followed
by busts, not quite enough running to make a permanently safe foundation, and lots of fighting to
overcome the knuckleheaded players (and coaching and management) that surrounds him. And, y’know,
hopefully nobody eats anybody.
9. TOM BRADY TB
Age: 44 • 6’4” • 225 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
4,633 Pass YD • 40 Pass TD • 12 INT • 8.6 AY@T (91st%) • 6 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 14
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B- • Accuracy: A- • Vision: A+ • Running: F • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 10
’20 Final Rank: 8
’21 Ranks Range: 4-16
As my dad says, “The Patriots were idiots for letting the GOAT go.” And yes, as it happens my dad is a
regular talk-radio caller. Why do you ask?
Brady’s final season in New England left open major questions. After an 8-0 start during which he was
QB6, the bottom dropped out and Brady was regularly seen cursing out his receivers for substandard
play. He was 42. He was still coached by Bill Belichick. Maybe, just maybe, the problems were Tom
Terrific’s. Maybe he was cooked.
Um, I think a 2020 season in which Brady passed for 40 scores and 4,600 yards and won his seventh
Super Bowl and fifth Super Bowl MVP answered those questions. Now we can look back and say it’s
possible a receiving corps consisting of hobbling Julian Edelman, Jakobi Meyers, Mohamed Sanu and
Phillip Dorsett (along with a dose of Belichickian hubris) was the culprit. You simply couldn’t watch
Brady’s Buccaneers film and see much wrong. An offensive line (and offensive coach) known for
allowing high pressure rates suddenly numbered among the league’s best thanks to Brady’s pre-snap
understanding of where the ball should go. A receiving corps previously touched with greatness but
always lacking in finish suddenly became a coherent group of reliable studs. And Brady himself showed
as much arm strength as I’ve seen from him in a decade. Check a throw he made in the first quarter
Week 2 against the Panthers: a 25-yards-in-the-air dagger down the middle that never got more than
eight feet off the ground.
Were there hiccups? Sure. Week 5 against the Bears Brady seemed to forget what down it was on a
potential game-winning drive. He biffed two regular-season games against the Saints. He left a ton of
throws on the field Week 14 against the Vikings. Mike Evans was slow getting started on downfield
passes in the season’s first half. Chris Godwin missed time with injury. Aged Rob Gronkowski doesn’t
separate. Brady is no longer anything like a perfect player, and this isn’t a perfect surrounding cast.
But they’re pretty dang good! If it seems crazy to tempt fate with a dude entering his age-44 season,
well, I get it. But you’d have said the same thing last year, and it worked out amazingly. There are no
rush yards here, but you’re always getting a few QB-sneak TDs, and knowing the answers to the test
before the exam is given makes Brady the greatest ever. He’s still a mid-round fantasy starter.
10. JOE BURROW CIN
Pod nickname:
The Sofa
Age: 25 • 6’3” • 221 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
2,688 Pass YD • 13 Pass TD • 5 INT • 8.3 AY@T (79th%) • 142 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 4 • Top 24 Finishes: 9
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C+ • Accuracy: C • Vision: A- • Running: C- • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 28
’20 Final Rank: 25
’21 Ranks Range: 4-20
Early in their career, Nirvana covered a Shocking Blue song whose refrain goes:
Can you feel my love buzz?
Can you feel my love buzz?
When evaluating Joe Burrow’s rookie year, “love buzz” seems appropriate. Rarely has the NFL media so
wanted a young QB to be amazing right away. And you understand it: the Bengals have been bad for a
half-decade, and Burrow was a lightly-regarded underdog Ohio St. transfer who went absolutely cuckoo
at LSU as a redshirt-senior, rising from NFL Draft afterthought to #1 overall pick. They got a Week 2
national TV showcase against the Browns. And every announcer who laid a vocal cord on Burrow tried
to palm him off as an incredible finished product.
Well, he wasn’t. In September, Burrow did a lot of chicken-with-its-head-cut off scrambling and
inaccurate passing, and against aggressive defenses he was tentative with his decisions. Of course, he
also had excruciatingly bad pass-blocking that necessitated abandoning plays after two seconds. What
the goofball cheerleaders in the NFL media wanted right away for Burrow is kind of what Justin
Herbert immediately showed with the Chargers (at least partly because of what turned out to be a better
surrounding cast). Still, as he settled in, Burrow proved capable of a throw that’s a modern-day must:
the touch-pass intermediate crosser against zone, where you have to toss it over linebackers but in front
of defensive backs. He pulled it off repeatedly. Unfortunately, Burrow’s season ended with a nauseating
knee injury in Washington that required multiple ligament reconstructions.
With the love buzz having at least partly worn off—step right into the void, Trevor Lawrence—it’s easy
to see Burrow has the kind of upside we should pursue if we’re waiting on QB. Signing Riley Reiff and
keeping Jonah Williams healthy could give Burrow more time, and drafting Ja’Marr Chase to go with Tee
Higgins and Tyler Boyd (and Joe Mixon) presents a tantalizing stable of young weaponry. There’s early
training-camp concern that none of this has gone well: beat reports have worried Burrow and
the offense have looked bad so far. Maybe that’s a bunch of new players getting to know each
other, maybe it’s Burrow himself working back to full health, or maybe they’re just not good.
I know I spent time on the podcast in July saying we mostly need to pay attention to negative
stories, but I haven’t moved Burrow’s rank yet. Could preseason struggles get me concerned?
Okay, maybe. I just tend to think assessments of “overall badness” as judged by beat reporters
gets put in the wood chipper and sprayed everywhere, and soon Joe Burrow doesn’t know how
to hold a football. I believe there’s been some smoke, and we’d do well to pay attention. But it’s
been so overriding and generic...nobody seems to be able to point to one thing or one player
who’s been a problem. After a couple good practices the narrative could just as easily become,
“Hey, everybody’s back! Crisis averted!” But yes: we’ll keep paying attention.
11. MATTHEW STAFFORD LAR
Pod nickname:
Stat Padford
Age: 33 • 6’3” • 220 lbs • Injury: 8
2020 Stats:
4,084 Pass YD • 26 Pass TD • 10 INT • 8.8 AY@T (97th%) • 112 Rush YD • 0 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 14
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 18
’20 Final Rank: 15
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A+ • Accuracy: C+ • Vision: B • Running: C- • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüü
’21 Ranks Range: 6-18
It’s a long time since I coined the nickname Stat Padford. (Did I coin it? Pretty sure I was using it more
than 10 years ago. Internet sleuths: you decide!) Young Stafford was a proto-Bortles: helping the Lions
get down big on the scoreboard, then padding stats to make end results look respectable. However, that
image has now been eclipsed by another: the tragic old pro trying to rise above his circumstances only
to have the boulder squish him, year after year.
Stafford surely was tough for a Lions franchise that won double-digits just twice in his 12-year career
(and went 0-3 in the playoffs). After breaking his back in ’19, last year he hurt his thumb in Week 10
and required surgery after the season, hurt his ribs and had to come out in Week 14, and hurt an ankle
in Week 16 and also left that game. Are the Rams getting some perfect gemstone who merely needed
a new setting? Good Stafford can be very good. But oh, the mind-numbing mistakes: in ’20, he helped
blow a Week 2 Packers game with a rancid pick-six in his own end zone, in a close one Week 8 he
cluelessly fumbled deep in Colts territory down six then his very next snap threw a pick-six to end it,
had two rancid picks early Week 9 against the Vikings, got embarrassed all day in a Week 11 shutout
loss to the Panthers…you can find excellent throws all over Stafford’s film, especially when he got a
clean pocket, but you always have to take his good with his bad.
This season Stafford makes a leap from his traditional QB16-to-20 range. In L.A., he gets a professional
receiving corps, an offensive line upgrade, and (most tantalizingly) Sean McVay’s play calling. You’ve
heard me pining to see McVay in full flower with a QB with a big arm and a willingness to read-andreact and go deep? Here we go. I doubt you’ll see a massive overall change: the Rams offense will still be
highly structured, with lots of motion, well-defined reads and quick throws. The differences will come
in the occasional bomb shot, where Stafford’s right arm has simply been kissed by celestial beings, and
also in moments of improvisation: Stafford isn’t Russell Wilson, but he’s a significantly better passer
than Jared Goff when he’s off-platform. Joining the Rams won’t stop Stafford from making his usual
mistakes. There’ll surely be a bunch. But since Calvin Johnson retired, Stafford’s ceiling has never been
higher.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
This is gonna be so great for those of us who are heavily invested in the Matt Stafford
industry. You know what it’s like? It’s like when your favorite older movie gets a huge
hyped release back in movie theaters again. You hear about it. You can’t believe it.
You get to see it on the big screen again? Amazing. You put on your best outfit to go
to the movies—this is all from back when we used to be able to go outside—you get
your concessions of choice: mine is a cup of coffee and a pack of gum. And you just
sit there and get thrilled and watch everybody else discover this thing you’ve known
about for years. In L.A., Stafford sleepwalks into a top-10 fantasy finish, and the world
remembers just how great he is. The Rams offense is good! I haven’t seen this many
weapons since I was watching The Assault on American Gladiators!”
12. JALEN HURTS PHI
Age: 23 • 6’1” • 223 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
1,061 Pass YD • 6 Pass TD • 4 INT • 8.7 AY@T • 354 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 4
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C • Accuracy: C- • Vision: C • Running: A • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 44
’20 Final Rank: 35
’21 Ranks Range: 8-32
Re-watching Hurts’s rookie film wasn’t a superheroic feat. He only played as a halfback/gadget weapon
until Week 13, when now-deposed coach Doug Pederson finally benched floundering Carson Wentz in
the fourth quarter. So we’re talking about 4.25 games, a.k.a. 184 dropbacks. Like Michael Scott’s book
about business, I can honestly say, “Somehow I Manage.”
As a thrower, Hurts was rough. He was Gabbert-rough. He was Tebow-rough. Jalen Hurts did not
look like a big-league quarterback. Now, it’s possible that nobody would’ve looked like a big-league
QB playing for the 2020 Philadelphia Eagles. The offensive line was comically injured all season—11
different linemen played at least 50 snaps—and the receiving corps was so bad that Greg Ward and
Travis Fulgham led them in catches (and no WR surpassed 419 receiving yards). But Hurts looked like
a weak-armed, inaccurate and callow QB prospect. He stared down throws, he seemed to forget who
his primary receiver was, he was slow to find secondary reads, and he often didn’t step up to pass. He
didn’t commit these sins on every play, but they happened too often. A Week 16 game against a dreadful
Cowboys defense featured a dozen bad plays (in a contest where Hurts racked up 342 passing yards…
truly, we should not manage our teams by the box score).
So why would I consider Hurts a top-15 fantasy option? You know why! He’s a terrific runner. He’s fast,
quick, nimble, knows how to string together moves, and is quite powerful breaking an arm tackle or
dragging someone toward the goal line. Is he Kyler Murray? No: he’s not that fast. But he’s a rocked-up
223 pounds. If Hurts lasts a full season as Philly’s starter, he’s could threaten 1,000 yards rushing.
Based on his ’20 film alone, I’d say Hurts should get benched before that. But of course: he was a rookie
who wasn’t expected to play, and who’d lasted to the second round because he needed development.
Also, the Eagles have a new coach (Nick Sirianni), they drafted a top WR prospect (DeVonta Smith)
and hope to have a healthier offensive line. Plus at the moment, Philly’s only alternative is ossified Joe
Flacco. Hurts is by far the likeliest QB in my top 15 to get benched. But he gives you a greater chance
at explosive weeks than anyone left on this positional list, and I’ve actually raised him two spots in
the QB ranks as of the second Almanac update, and I’ll tell you why. This is not my usual m.o.
But the Eagles and Patriots held joint practices and I have a “source” (not really as impressive as
it sounds) with the Patriots who said New England brass came away believing Hurts really has
made strides as a thrower. This is such a hard thing to know until the games count! After all,
without Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots secondary may be awful! Still, I trust this account enough
to being to feel enticed.
13. RYAN TANNEHILL TEN
Pod nickname:
Dog Sausage
Age: 33 • 6’4” • 207 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
3,819 Pass YD • 33 Pass TD • 7 INT • 8.2 AY@T (70th%) • 266 Rush YD • 7 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 8 • Top 24 Finishes: 15
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B- • Accuracy: B • Vision: C • Running: B • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 20
’20 Final Rank: 7
’21 Ranks Range: 8-20
If you’ve enjoyed my hilariously wrong Ryan Tannehill takes over the past season-and-a-half, you’re
probably disappointed to see him ranked this highly. Dog Sausage is finally getting respect! What’s this
world coming to?
Here’s what I think I haven’t gotten wrong on Tannehill. His six seasons in Miami were mostly an
experiment in seeing how many stupid mistakes a quarterback can make. His physical skills were fine—
after all he was a #8 overall pick—but he just seemed sorta dumb. In Tennessee he has completely
remade that image, and I think I told you that right away. Gone were the 50-50 wish balls and the
broken-field-scramble fumbles where he seemed to think he was Michael Vick instants before he got his
kidneys manually removed by a defensive player. As a Titan, he’s been significantly more reined in, and
it’s suited him.
I just didn’t think you could win (in the NFL or in fantasy) with this new sterilized version of Ryan
Tannehill, and I’ve been proven wrong. Tanny took the Titans to the AFC title game two years ago, and
followed that up with a 33/7 season plus somehow rushed for seven scores, too. There’s exactly zero
mystery how he did it. In ’20, Tannehill ran play-action on 32% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the
NFL among full-time starters. On those throws, he had the league’s second-highest yards-per-attempt
(10.5, behind only Tom Brady, who ran play-action less than half as often). The Titans have been
overwhelming in their simplicity. They scare the bejeezus out of everyone with Derrick Henry, throw a
bunch of short passes, then give Tannehill a downfield read on play-action and tell him not to make a
mistake. It’s very 1989, it leads to full quarters of dullard play, but in the end so far it’s worked.
The key difference in ’21 is the advent of Julio Jones to Nashville. We’ll argue in the wide receiver
section the effect this will have on A.J. Brown, but it’s not really convincing to say Tannehill derives no
benefit. Having another great receiver is good for a QB. The Titans have real Super Bowl aspirations,
and Tannehill is part of them. Car Seat Headrest has an eleven-and-a-half-minute song called “The
Ballad Of The Costa Concordia,” about a pleasure cruise gone horribly wrong in ’12. It’s over-the-top,
unnecessary and great. There’s a big spoken-word part in the middle where Will Toledo says, “How
many times have I drowned,” and then the music kicks back in and he dramatically sings:
I GIVE UP!
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Historically speaking, how play-action-heavy were the
Titans last year?
In 2020, Ryan Tannehill executed play-action on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than any
quarterback since ’13, and the second-most in the past ten years. For sure, NFL play-action is on
the rise right now. But the Titans’ (or Arthur Smith’s) vision for how to clean up Tanny’s wild act
from Miami was to keep him on schedule, give him limited reads, and drive home a fear of the
running game to make his job simpler. It worked. And you know what? When a coordinator finds
a good running game and a QB who’s solid at play-action mechanics? It usually works!
Player
Russell Wilson
Ryan Tannehill
Christian Ponder
Jared Goff
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson
Jared Goff
Cam Newton
Josh Allen
Russell Wilson
Season
2013
2020
2012
2018
2020
2019
2020
2012
2020
2014
Play Action %
33.4%
32.1%
32.1%
31.6%
30.8%
29.3%
29.3%
28.8%
28.7%
28.5%
RB Companion
Marshawn Lynch
Derrick Henry
Adrian Peterson
Todd Gurley
Lamar Jackson?
Mark Ingram
Todd Gurley
DeAngelo Williams
Devin Singletary
Marshawn Lynch
QB Fantasy Finish
8th
7th
22nd
7th
10th
1st
19th
4th
1st
3rd
I’m not trying to define causation here. There’s pretty clearly some good correlation going
on, though! When coordinators with good running games go play-action-crazy...good things
usually happen for the QB. Of course, a bunch of these guys are hyper-mobile and produced
great fantasy finishes because of their own rush stats...and Tannehill himself is a fine runner. I’ll
rack this up as one more reason it’s dumb to say a team is “too run-heavy” for its QB to be good.
Often, a good running game implies a good QB year, especially if play-action gets in a groove.
14. MATT RYAN ATL
Pod nickname:
Matty Melt
Age: 36 • 6’4” • 217 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
4,581 Pass YD • 26 Pass TD • 11 INT • 8.5 AY@T (85th%) • 92 Rush YD • 2 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 7 • Top 24 Finishes: 12
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 11
’20 Final Rank: 12
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: B+ • Vision: B+ • Running: D • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
’21 Ranks Range: 8-14
Phew, it’s tough to understand how the Falcons can sink low enough to draft #4, with a bloated salary
cap, mediocre line play and an aging veteran under center, fire their GM and head coach, and somehow
not emerge from the 2021 Draft without a new QB. It is some true galaxy-brained stuff. They let the
49ers trade ahead of them, then still stared Justin Fields square in the face and took a tight end. It’s
baffling.
And I guess it’s good for Matt Ryan! Calvin Ridley is an emerging superstar and that rookie TE, Kyle
Pitts, should be great. Per usual, even with Julio Jones departed for Tennessee, Ryan won’t lack for big/
fast/talented dudes to throw to. I’ve always taken issue with Matty Melt’s decision making, but we want
our fantasy QBs tossing it to guys who can take it to the house on any play.
Ryan’s stats will always look better cumulatively than they feel watching him play week-by-week. He’s
a throw-from-behind specialist who’ll make you crazy checking to the open receiver while one of his
elite weapons faces tighter coverage. He tosses dismal end-zone interceptions in crucial moments. He
often can’t finish off drives. He’s not actually a bad QB…that’s obvious. But he’s not actually a 38/7 guy,
either. (Those were his TD/INT totals when he body-snatched Brett Favre and became the ’16 MVP).
Matt Ryan will finish his career fifth in total passing yards and dumdums will proclaim him a Hall-ofFame shoo-in, and the truth is that Matt Ryan is right-handed Mark Brunell born 15 years later, into
the era where Alex Smith passes for enough yards to make the career top 30. If Ryan’s the one you get
when employing a zero-QB draft strategy, I’m fine with it. He’s got 10 straight years with at least 4,000
yards passing and there’s little competition in the Falcons’ locker room to make you think that’ll change
in 2021. Arthur Smith made chicken salad out of chicken bleep in Tennessee and I’m sure he’s got tricks
up his sleeve. All I can tell you, though, is the ride with Matty Melt is never smooth.
15. BAKER MAYFIELD CLE
Pod nickname:
The Baker Mayfield Blues Implosion
Age: 26 • 6’1” • 215 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
3,563 Pass YD • 26 Pass TD • 8 INT • 8.3 AY@T (76th%) • 165 Rush YD • 1 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 10
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: B • Vision: B • Running: C • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Let’s begin then, the fantasy fool the experts, too.
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 14
’20 Final Rank: 17
’21 Ranks Range: 10-24
New Pornographers are one of my favorite bands and they did not write the song “Fantasy Fools” for
me, but I like to pretend they did. Lead singer Carl Newman is from Vancouver and has never expressed
a preference for the Cleveland Browns (I did interview him once for the late beloved Juggernaut
podcast…we did not discuss the NFL), but perhaps Mr. Newman would enjoy investing in a player like
Baker Mayfield. After all, you’re going to hear the entire fantasy world say the Browns are “too runheavy” to allow Mayfield to be good for fantasy. Hm. Perhaps we are fools, indeed.
The fact is that in 2020 the Browns did, in fact, feature a top-five run-heavy offense. (See below: they
ran on 49.7% of their plays.) Frankly, though, look at some of the other offenses around them, and
you’ll conclude it’s certainly possible for a QB who works within a system that is “run-heavy” by today’s
standards to be a good fantasy option, even without the cheat code. Mayfield played behind perhaps the
NFL’s best offensive line last year: tackle had been a weak spot, but drafting Jedrick Wills and signing
Jack Conklin turned them around. As a result, Mayfield averaged the longest time before throwing of
any QB in the league. If he gets back something resembling prime Odell Beckham—obviously no sure
thing—Mayfield could easily overperform my rank of him. For these reasons, I think Mayfield has a
better best-case scenario than several of the guys ranked below him.
The reason I couldn’t get him higher than this isn’t about situation, but rather about the contrasts
Mayfield has shown in his career. His best fantasy season was ’18, his rookie year. He had us excited
because he was a swashbuckling maniac who threw to the perimeter a ton, often heedless of which
defenders might be standing there. It made Mayfield electrifying, but it also gave him frightening weekto-week downside. The more refined version of Mayfield we saw in ’20 threw very well into tight
windows, but also picked his spots better: in ’18 he averaged nearly six tight-window throws per game
and last year it was four. The best version of Mayfield is the more conservative version. Maybe that
changes if ODB rocks again. Still, that explains why I’m going along with the crowd: Mayfield appears to
be a better player when he swashes fewer buckles.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Are QBs in “run-heavy” offenses doomed to fantasy
failure?
You’re about to go through another pre-draft season of “experts” telling you which teams will
be good and which teams will be bad, and your job is to ignore them as much as possible. If
every NFL season was the same, drafting for fantasy would be easy! Similarly, you’ll hear which
teams can’t sustain high-level fantasy QBs because they run too much. I think this chart puts the
lie to that:
Team
Ravens
Patriots
Titans
Browns
Saints
Vikings
Packers
Run/Pass Ratio
58.1%
53.2%
51.2%
49.7%
48.6%
47.6%
45.7%
QB
Lamar Jackson
Cam Newton
Ryan Tannehill
Baker Mayfield
Drew Brees
Kirk Cousins
Aaron Rodgers
QB Fantasy Finish
10th
16th
7th
17th
21st
11th
2nd
(Note that Brees missed four games with injury.) First of all, it’s pretty obvious that “runheaviness” is already a sliding scale. In 1990, 11 teams ran more than they passed; last year it
was 3. And considering more than half the guys on this list finished as fantasy starters (Jackson
obviously via his legs more than his arm), it just seems dumb to say you’re positive a QB can’t
give you an excellent fantasy season in today’s game because of play-calling mix.
16. KIRK COUSINS MIN
Pod nickname:
Starbucks
Age: 33 • 6’3” • 202 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
4,265 Pass YD • 35 Pass TD • 13 INT • 7.8 AY@T (55th%) • 156 Rush YD • 1 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 8 • Top 24 Finishes: 15
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C+ • Accuracy: A- • Vision: B • Running: C- • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 19
’20 Final Rank: 11
’21 Ranks Range: 10-18
It’s Week 6 against the Falcons. The Vikings receive the opening kickoff. The Falcons put eight
defenders in the box on the game’s first play from scrimmage. Kirk Cousins goes play-action to the
running back, and the Falcons D couldn’t scream ZONE !!! more if Grady Jarrett wore a t-shirt that said,
“Hi, Kirk, We Are Now Currently Dropping Into A Very Basic Zone.” Deion Jones is standing in the
middle of the field. Covering nobody. And Cousins flings it blithely over the middle at Justin Jefferson,
which would’ve been a great plan except for the part about Deion Jones standing right there.
Maybe we don’t know the actual truth about Cousins. He’s been barely-bad-enough-to-lose for a long
time, but it’s fair to say his three years in Minnesota have largely been marked by terrible offensive line
play. Maybe nobody would succeed under such circumstances, and maybe Cousins would transcend his
traditional pants-pooping with a better surrounding cast. Then again, this was pretty much his act for
three years as a starter in D.C., too: capable of good stretches, capable of helping his receiving weapons
to fine seasons, but always ready with the ill-timed head-clutcher.
The Vikings drafted Kellen Mond in the third round this spring, and when it comes to NFL-readiness
Mond is probably in Jalen Hurts territory, which is to say: pretty clearly not ready. But Cousins’s
contract has officially reached unwieldy territory—he’ll make $21 million and count $31 million against
the cap this year, with even bigger numbers coming in ’22—which is only a winning recipe when your
signal caller can be your best player. Nobody but his immediate family believes that’s true in Cousins’s
case. (His family are also the ones who literally (literally!) have to watch Kirk take a rock out of a jar
each month to represent his (and their) mortality. Seriously. That’s a not-made-up and very deep thing
Kirk Cousins does. He also apparently won’t get vaccinated, so if you’re concerned about your
fantasy QB missing a random game, factor that, too.)
Dalvin Cook is terrific. Jefferson is terrific. Healthy, Adam Thielen is terrific. When a QB has this kind
of skill-position talent around him, and when he understands the basics of how to do the job, he’ll
probably deliver an okay season. But with Cousins, the past decade has taught us expecting better than
that is folly.
17. JUSTIN FIELDS CHI
Age: 22 • 6’3” • 227 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
deshaun watson
’21 Ranks Range: 10-40 • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üü
Obviously, the Bears are run by morons. And I don’t just mean the GM. Sure, Ryan Pace is the one
who: drafted Kevin White seventh overall; gave Mike Glennon $18.5 million guaranteed; signed Markus
Wheaton to replace Alshon Jeffery; released Robbie Gould only to watch him be great with the 49ers;
gave both Trey Burton and the rotting husk of Jimmy Graham starter money; gave Robert Quinn $30
million guaranteed at age 30 and watched him rack up two sacks; and didn’t even meet with Deshaun
Watson before trading up to pass on Patrick Mahomes and take Mitch Trubisky at #2 overall, and
subsequently gave Nick Foles $45 million guaranteed. Everyone in the Chicago organization senior to
Pace is a moron because despite the fact that they all can see how disappointing and dysfunctional the
Bears are even as an 8-8 “playoff” team, Pace is still employed, and also because despite the fact that
Pace (and coach Matt Nagy) are practically dead men walking, ownership allowed them to draft yet
another QB this spring.
But you know that meme of the balding guy that reads, “Worst Person You Know Makes A Good Point”?
I really like Justin Fields! I wish my team had traded up to get him! I obviously don’t know whether
Fields can be a great thrower, but I know he’s a great runner. He might already be the NFL’s thirdfastest QB behind Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. He’s tall and strong, he cuts on a dime…he is
dangerous. He has excellent throwing arm strength. And at Ohio St. he had moments of transcendence
as an accurate thrower. If everything works out perfectly for Fields, he’s an even more mobile Deshaun
Watson. Of course, Fields doesn’t turn pro with Watson’s safe floor and immediate polish; his college
offense didn’t require him to make many reads, so we don’t know what he’ll do when receivers aren’t
schemed wide open by RPOs and misdirection. He absolutely could flop, and become the “run-only”
QB type that some (incorrectly, I think) believe Lamar Jackson is already doomed to be. But even
that’s kind of awesome! Certainly it would be fine for fantasy, plus it would be more enjoyable to watch
than the week-by-week water torture called Trubisky. After having seen Fields run in an exhibition
game and make legit NFL defenders look like me out there—and after having heard Andy
Dalton proclaim that it’s “his time” like some kind of dictator ten minutes away from being
overthrown—I’m lifting Fields’s rank a bit. I really don’t think we’re going to have to wait very
long to see him start.
What’s crazy here is Pace and Nagy may have fallen ass-backwards into a legacy maker. I’ve disliked
almost everything about Pace’s administration, and then he picked the dude I would’ve picked, and what
can you do but tip your cap? I doubt Fields can save his bosses as a rookie…especially because Nagy has
told anyone who’ll listen Dalton ($10 million guaranteed!) is his starter. I frankly don’t believe that,
but if it’s true, it’s one more reason to axe these dummies. What’s likelier is Fields plays enough to show
glimpses, Pace and Nagy get fired this winter, and the next guys inherit a QB who, if he’s good, they’ll
never get credit for.
18. BEN ROETHLISBERGER PIT
Age: 39 • 6’5” • 240 lbs • Injury: 14
2020 Stats:
3,803 Pass YD • 33 Pass TD • 10 INT • 7.0 AY@T (19th%) • 11 Rush YD • 0 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 13
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C • Accuracy: C • Vision: A- • Running: F • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 15
’20 Final Rank: 14
’21 Ranks Range: 10-30
It’s hard to throw 33 TDs and finish QB14 or lower in fantasy! Philip Rivers managed that ignominious
feat in 2016, Derek Carr almost did it in ’15 (he tossed 32 scores), and that’s it: nobody else has
thrown that many TDs and been that mediocre for fantasy in NFL history. You might believe Big Ben
accomplished such weird ordinariness in ’20 because so many more QBs throw so many more TDs in
the modern game, and that’s fair: in ’05 Carson Palmer led the league with 32 passing scores. But if you
watched Roethlisberger at the end of last season, you know his pedestrian season was well-earned.
The Steelers started 11-0, but Big Ben still didn’t look amazing. There’s lots of talk about how after
his ’19 elbow surgery, Roethlisberger is now purely a three-step-drop, dink-and-dunk passer, but the
numbers and our eyeballs don’t bear that out: Pittsburgh still took plenty of shots, and for three months,
the likes of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool made those deeper attempts pay off, even if Big Ben
wasn’t fully his old rifle-armed self. No, the real problem isn’t “only” the deep ball, but rather protracted
bouts of latter-day-Cam-Newtonian wildness, impatience and bad decisions. And those qualities
became obvious to everyone in December: the Steelers went from Super Bowl contenders to pitiable
afterthought as the weather turned windy and Big Ben looked like a cross between Sam Darnold and a
sight-impaired walrus. By the Wild Card round, Mike Tomlin appeared terrified of his offense, punting
twice in spots where going for it seemed obvious.
This feels like the last roundup for Roethlisberger. It feels like what we went through with Rivers
last year. We’ll clearly endure a couple months of team-sanctioned beat reports enumerating the
many ways Big Ben is better than ever, and he might even start the campaign pretty well. Between
Johnson, Claypool and the surprisingly re-signed JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh has great pass targets.
Eventually, though, I expect ’21 to turn into the same kind of valedictory death march Rivers had in
Indianapolis: a decent-but-not-championship-level team stirs the echoes for a while but eventually
collapses under the weight (and I do mean weight) of its diminished signal caller.
19. RYAN FITZPATRICK WAS
Pod nickname:
FitzPumpkin
Age: 39 • 6’2” • 228 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
2,091 Pass YD • 13 Pass TD • 8 INT • 7.7 AY@T (49th%) • 151 Rush YD • 2 Rush TD
9 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 6
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C • Accuracy: B+ • Vision: D • Running: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 33
’20 Final Rank: 28
’21 Ranks Range: 12-36
He’s fun, okay? I admit the FitzPumpkin is fun. No argument: the NFL is better when he’s in it. But this
notion that in his age-39 season, the Pumpkin will come to a new city and finally become consistent
enough for you to use in a fantasy league is absolutely hilarious. You people believe in the damn tooth
fairy, too?
And yet it’s incredible. Without fail, a segment of the fantasy world loses its mind whenever Fitz joins a
new squad. (Washington will be his ninth, in case you’re keeping score.) The brainworms are incredible!
“Scott Turner calls a lot of pass plays! Fitzpatrick is aggressive! Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan
Thomas! Wait on QB and draft Fitz!” Just amazing cognitive dissonance. To believe Ryan Fitzpatrick will
win you a fantasy title is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. He’s spent his entire professional
life proving otherwise. It’s like assuming Nickelback’s finally going to release a rock opera that’ll make
the critics weep.
Let me be clear: Fitz isn’t bad, or at least he’s not bad in textbook ways. Whereas many of the other
doofus QBs in the bottom half of the league employ a death grip on their jobs by refusing to take
chances, Fitzpatrick has the opposite problem: in his pass selection, he is borderline deranged. He never
met a tight window he wouldn’t try to throw into. Don’t believe me? Then you haven’t watched Fitz
play…but also, over the last three years, next-gen stats tell us he has the smallest average yards between
his target and the nearest defender of any QB in the league. It’s truly incredible, and Washington fans
are about to experience it: you’ll be thrilled over games where Fitz only throws two picks, because you’ll
have seen three other throws that could have been intercepted.
You know exactly how this season goes. In September, Fitzpatrick will have a couple huge statistical
days, because he always does. NFL media suckers will once again chuckle and shake their heads and say,
“The guy just gets it done, wherever he goes!” Then Ron Rivera will watch Fitz try to throw a football
through five defenders, decide he’s seen enough, and then Taylor Heinecke will get starts. I like fun! Fitz
is fun! Just don’t draft him!
20. DEREK CARR LV
Pod nickname:
Middle-Aged Dopey Golden Retriever
Age: 30 • 6’3” • 210 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
4,103 Pass YD • 27 Pass TD • 9 INT • 7.8 AY@T (58th%) • 140 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 7 • Top 24 Finishes: 14
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A- • Accuracy: B • Vision: C+ • Running: C- • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 23
’20 Final Rank: 13
’21 Ranks Range: 14-24
I have to write another Derek Carr profile? This silver-and-black ham sandwich? This jar of
Marshmallow Fluff pocketing another $20 million to go 8-8 again? (Oh, sorry, I mean 8-9.) Week 2 last
year, Brian Griese was announcing Saints/Raiders and said something like, “Well, Jon Gruden will have
to go deeper into his playbook with this deficit, you can’t just throw five-yard check-downs now,” and I
was like, “Have you met Derek Carr?”
Okay, let’s admit that very weirdly, last year Carr established the best deep-ball chemistry he’s had in
most of his (gulp) seven-year career with…Nelson Agholor? Whereas in 2019, Carr had the secondfewest attempts that traveled 20+ air yards, in ’20 he was middle-of-the-pack, and more than one-third
of his deep completions went to Agholor and not the bonus-baby wideout we all hoped for, Henry
Ruggs. And that’s still damning with faint praise: even with Agholor deciding he’s an actual downfield
NFL receiver, Carr finished in his customary back half of the league in AY@T. Lesser announcers than
Griese (who is very good!) waxed rhapsodic over Carr’s interception-less streak to start the year (149
attempts without a pick!) while failing to notice that this guy who I found so fun and aggressive early
in his career has morphed into Teddy Bridgewater. Among all eligible QBs since the stat is available
beginning in ’03, Carr is 63rd out of 68 in career average downfield target yards.
Carr is nearing the same inflection point Jared Goff reached and Kirk Cousins is approaching: not
terrible, but not worth the money. The Raiders are absolutely one of those squads people on Twitter
show four snapshots of with the legend “WHO STOPS THIS OFFENSE???” and of course the answer is:
lots of people will. I like Josh Jacobs very much, Ruggs barely scratched the surface but he’s still fast,
Darren Waller is officially one of his position’s elites…and yet you know how this movie ends. Carr will
have flashes of looking like a star if you squint, the Raiders will float around the bubble of the playoff
picture, and the moment your fantasy team decides to rely on Carr he’ll give you 22-for-34 for 215
yards throwing two-yard passes to Kenyan Drake.
21. TREVOR LAWRENCE JAC
Age: 22 • 6’6” • 220 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Andrew luck
’21 Ranks Range: 14-28 • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
It’s rare you can write a draft pick in ink two-plus years before it happens. But after his insane
freshman year at Clemson, Lawrence was always destined to go #1 in 2021. The only question was
which team would take him. And the Jets were absolutely lined up, they were #32 with a bullet, 0-13
and historically terrible…then Adam Gase delivered one more parting shot, winning two games in
December and handing Lawrence to Jacksonville on his googly-eyed way out the door.
The NFL Draft is pretty random. We don’t know what these kids will be, no matter how many times
the echo chamber reverbs. But Lawrence is about as can’t-miss as they come. Could he turn out to be
Tim Couch, Sam Bradford, David Carr or JaMarcus Russell, who are the four true #1 overall QB busts
of the modern era? I suppose anything’s possible. As a thrower, Lawrence is wonderfully accurate in the
chains-moving, anticipation department, plus showed strong deep-ball placement throughout his career.
His instincts to slide step or scramble under pressure and get off a pure throw are already at NFLstar caliber. And he’s absolutely got a chance to be a ground-game contributor, though I’d imagine the
Jaguars would prefer he not run at Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray volumes. If there’s one area you can
quibble with Lawrence, it might be decision-making consistency: as his college career wore on and his
receivers weren’t quite as dominant, he made more mistakes. But he was still pretty great.
Urban Meyer comes to Jacksonville with a couple years’ worth of grace period, a shotgun-heavy spread
playbook approach with power-running elements, and a reputation for grinding players down by being
sort of an a-hole. It sounds like an absolutely perfect setup for Lawrence (except the a-hole part) until
you realize the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator will be your friend and mine, Darrell Bevell, who has more
lives than Keith Richards and Wile E. Coyote combined. (In truth, I don’t think Bevell is that bad…he
gets a bad rep for being “too run-heavy,” but he’s also shown a decent ability to adjust to his personnel.)
My tendency is to believe the Jags will screw this up because they’re the Jags, and the ’21 season will
undoubtedly be bumpy. But Lawrence is the one you want. If he’s healthy coming off non-throwing
shoulder surgery and shows what he showed at Clemson, this team will be better, the skill weapons will
all get more interesting, and Lawrence will soon tickle fantasy relevance.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
What’s the actual upside of a first-round rookie QB?
We know these names well, but it’s good to remind ourselves. Here are the quarterbacks drafted
in the first round over the past four years:
Year
2020
2020
2020
2019
2019
2019
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2017
2017
2017
Draft Pick
1
5
6
1
6
15
1
3
7
10
32
2
10
12
QB
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Mitch Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
QB Fantasy Finish
25th
31st
9th
8th
24th
36th
16th
27th
21st
34th
29th
28th
52nd
26th
Coming off Justin Herbert’s stunning first season, maybe you’re tempted by the prospect of any
of 2021’s first-round QBs—Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones—launching
unexpectedly into fantasy-starter territory, but as you can see, it doesn’t usually happen. True,
players like Burrow and Watson had promising rookie seasons interrupted by injury, and many
of these guys didn’t get a chance to start right away. But that’s exactly the point, right? I can
spend several effusive paragraphs being tantalized over what Lawrence might someday be, but
playing quarterback is the hardest gig in pro sports. You’re always well-advised to look for QB
upside because the position is so statistically replaceable…but in their first years, these new kids
will probably prove too up-and-down to rely on.
22. TUA TAGOVAILOA MIA
Age: 23 • 6’ • 217 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
1,814 Pass YD • 11 Pass TD • 5 INT • 7.4 AY@T (37th%) • 109 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 6
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C • Accuracy: C • Vision: A- • Running: B • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 32
’20 Final Rank: 31
’21 Ranks Range: 12-24
As a great 20th century philosopher once said:
My loneliness is killing me and I
I must confess I still believe, still believe
I’m still in the tank for Tua. I admit, preferring him over Justin Herbert last summer now looks really
bad. Herbert was rookie of the year, and Tagovailoa threw 11 TDs in 10 games. You’d rather your
teacher’s pet be great right away. But I’m hanging in.
If there’s a reason besides stubbornness to preach Tua’s possibilities in 2021, it’s his Week 9 film against
the Cardinals. In that game, we saw the Diet Russell Wilson act we hope will blossom this season:
in a shootout, Tagovailoa hit three deep balls (two of which he completed despite interference), he
scrambled to throw, he tied the game late with a perfect fade to Mack Hollins…it was the best we saw
him as a rookie. He hurt his thumb the next week, missed a game, and after that comes the Rorschach
test.
Tagovailoa had good moments in the season’s second half—a big statistical output in a thwarted
comeback attempt versus the Chiefs, a couple red-zone TD runs against the Patriots—but anyone who
watched him in December would call Tua a check-down artist. But was that because of some limitation
on his part, or was it the result of (a) the injured thumb; (b) an injury-decimated receiving corps
that wasn’t very good to begin with; and/or (c) Chan Gailey at offensive coordinator? Even losing big
in a Week 17 tilt against the Bills when a win would’ve gotten them to the playoffs, Gailey called a
surprising number of screen passes against a defense playing back. Wilson’s true magic is that he extends
plays unlike anyone else, then fires downfield. Tua didn’t do that much in the season’s second half. Your
explanation will define how you view him going forward.
The Dolphins have done a lot to change Tua’s circumstances. Gailey re-retired (or was privately fired).
Hollins and Jakeem Grant were demoted to bit players. And Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle joined
DeVante Parker atop the WR depth chart. Tua has a reputation for a crazy-quick release but not the
strongest deep-ball arm. Can he take advantage of the Fuller/Waddle combo’s impossible speed? If he
can’t, we’re in trouble. If he can, hit me baby one more time.
23. TREY LANCE SF
Age: 21 • 6’4” • 224 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Donovan McNabb
’21 Ranks Range: 10-40 • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüü
If there’s ever been a quarterback selected in the NFL Draft’s top five whom I actually believed might
not start for a good long while, it’s Lance. That’s because the Niners’ #3 overall pick played only 18
games of college ball at FCS North Dakota St. So when Kyle Shanahan threatens us with more games of
Jimmy Garoppolo (or someone else, if the 49ers part ways with Handsome Jimmy), it may not be idle
springtime coachspeak.
Lance learned pro-style concepts at NDSU. He had to make pre-snap adjustments, and also advance
to secondary and tertiary reads post-snap. He’s proven adept at play-action, and unlike a lot of his
contemporary collegiate prospects, has lots of experience dropping back from under center and setting
his feet in traditional fashion before throwing. But let’s not be Pollyanna about it: Lance was also a
completely dominant athlete for his level of competition, plus his offense often had short throws as
primary reads. That’s how Lance gained a reputation as a dink-and-dunker in his single starting season.
He doesn’t have tons of experience diagnosing complex downfield coverages. He simply hasn’t played
very much (or any) high-level football.
But the fit with Shanny Junior figures to be marvelous. Lance’s play-action chops and footwork
operating under center are a natural for an offense with tons of misdirection and pre-snap motion and
outside-zone handoffs. Plus—most important for fantasy—Lance can really run. First and foremost he’s a
big dude who’ll shed tacklers and run over the occasional DB, and while he’s not really a make-you-miss
quickness guy, he could easily be Josh Allen in the ground game: picking his spots, getting into the open
field and being a true handful to tackle, and stealing red-zone touchdowns. There’s reason to gamble on
him in a late round of a redraft league. Sure, he might sit for half the year, but I think he’s going to play
in 2021. And if he’s got the cheat code, he’ll quickly work his way into starting fantasy consideration.
I’ve hiked him a few spots to account for the fact that he hasn’t looked lost so far playing among
the big fellas, though talks about him only entering games in sub-packages in September aren’t
fully encouraging.
24. CARSON WENTZ IND
Age: 29 • 6’5” • 237 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
2,620 Pass YD • 16 Pass TD • 15 INT • 8.6 AY@T (88th%) • 276 Rush YD • 5 Rush TD
12 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 8
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: C • Vision: B- • Running: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 12
’20 Final Rank: 22
’21 Ranks Range: 8-24
If you can think of a more precipitous fall from grace than Carson Wentz’s, I’d like to hear about it.
Here’s the #2 draft pick from five years ago who was an MVP candidate four years ago, who’s been
saddled with a terrible offensive line and terrible receivers for years, and who just got traded for a bag
of distressed Steve Emtman jerseys. I’m not here to call Wentz blameless. But this is nothing short of a
Shia-LaBeouf-level immolation. (Maybe I’m onto something! Both guys have rocked regrettable beards.)
What the hell happened? 2020 was awful! I’m not allowed to rag on Gardner Minshew and Drew
Lock and give Wentz a performance pass. Yes, for the second straight year the Eagles whiffed on their
receiving corps, and yes, the blocking was terrible. But those things were true in ’19, too, and Wentz
didn’t look like that. We’re talking poor accuracy and poor decisions and taking a crazy number of sacks
while looking confused by an offense he knew by heart. Wentz’s previous calling card was courage under
fire and an ability to avoid big mistakes. In ’20, his damn brain broke. Okay, yes, there were times he
was playing with 10 strangers. But dangit, flip on a random play during Eagles/Giants in Week 10 and
nobody should be air-mailing throws like that. You could’ve snuck Wentz-lookalike Prince Harry into
that #11 jersey and Philly fans would’ve been like, “Carson still sucks even with the accent.” (And Philly
fans know a thing or three about accents.)
Might we look back on Wentz’s career like we do Drew Brees’s? Crashed out of the first gig, found
a more stable organization for the second gig and went on to great things? It’s possible. These past
couple Eagles teams have been mediocre and snake-bitten. Wentz only turns 29 in December and has
arm strength and toughness. He gets reunited with his old mentor Frank Reich in Indianapolis. He’ll
play behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines with decent-if-not-upper-echelon receiving talent. If
it hadn’t been for Philip Rivers and his 97 children last year, the Colts roster might’ve looked like a
potential conference finalist. But any talk about reinserting Wentz into starting fantasy territory
ended early this August, when he aggravated an old foot injury and required surgery. He’ll
miss his entire first training camp with a new team, plus the Colts are playing it hilariously
cagey, claiming Wentz has a “5-to-12-week return timeline.” EL. OH. EL. This is clearly
gamesmanship—will our guy be back for the season opener? will he sit until Week 8? we’ll
surprise you!—but it’s hard to know whether it’s gamesmanship meant to get the Seahawks to
let their guard down in Week 1, or meant to fool everyone on the early schedule into wasting
time preparing for Wentz. I can’t hike him back to his original rank from this summer, but I’m
boosting him a few spots between the first and second Almanac updates, because whispers now
indicate Wentz himself wants to target Week 1 for his return. It’s still regrettable that he won’t
have had a training camp with his new teammates, so it’s hard to expect greatness right away,
and for heaven’s sake, let’s not base our drafts on rumors! But it will be better if he’s out there
than not.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I went down with the ship in a huge way with Wentz last year. I planted my flag on him
in my home league, which resulted in my team throwing 10 TD passes in 13 regularseason games. It was absolutely horrific to watch. My Sundays were done at 1:45
p.m. each week. So okay, Wentz goes from Philly to Indy and I get it…you can try this
if you’re Frank Reich. You can try taking this old familiar thing that everybody now
knows just isn’t very good, and stick it behind a great offensive line and tell everyone
it’s gonna be great. But this year it doesn’t move the needle for me. It’s like making
an Old-Fashioned with well liquor. It doesn’t sit well, and vomit will eventually be
involved.”
25. DANIEL JONES NYG
Pod nickname:
Danny Ten-Cent Piece
Age: 24 • 6’5” • 221 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
2,943 Pass YD • 11 Pass TD • 10 INT • 7.4 AY@T (34th%) • 423 Rush YD • 1 Rush TD
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 10
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: C • Vision: C- • Running: B+ • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 22
’20 Final Rank: 24
’21 Ranks Range: 16-26
Ah, the allure of small sample sizes. In the first appearance of Daniel Jones’s rookie year, he outdueled
Jameis Winston, put up big numbers, and Giants fans—shockingly, because they tend to be so shy and
retiring—went crazy with the nicknaming and told-you-sos…and then he bumbled through the rest
of the season. In Week 1 of 2020, Jones led a 19-play second-half drive that had announcers soiling
themselves with glee…and then he threw a pick on the goal line. I know it’s not as fun as listening to
Stephen A. make proclamations in the moment (“the Big Blue wrecking crew, things of that nature”),
but watching young players for longer than an eye-blink tends to yield smarter opinions.
I will base my opinion on Danny Ten-Cent Piece on his entire body of work, but that oeuvre is wellsummarized by his read-option keeper Week 7 in Philly, where he breaks into the clear, runs 80 yards,
and falls down untouched in the open field before he can score. This poor guy can’t get out of his own
way.
In ’20, Jones was the NFL’s second-most-blitzed QB on a per-dropback basis, behind only Cam Newton,
and it’s easy to understand why. In both cases, defenses simply don’t fear them much as throwers;
Newton’s shoulder is attached by chewing gum, while Jones doesn’t read the field quickly enough. Were
there mitigating factors last year? Sure. Saquon Barkley missed 14 games, the offensive line was terrible
(Dave Gettleman selecting Jones and tackle Andrew Thomas with top-six picks in back-to-back drafts
adds to his legacy of Being Dave Gettleman), and Jones had his December wrecked by a bad hamstring.
At his best, Jones is a good runner with some cheat code in his game, and despite my near-constant
mockery, in ’20 he really actually did seem more comfortable throwing with anticipation rather than
waiting for his receiver to get open. In Kenny Golladay he has a true potential alpha receiver (who
is already missing big swaths of training-camp time with a pulled hammy). Healthy, Jones is
certainly going to eclipse 11 aerial TDs this season. He still has a sliver of upside. But you don’t need to
take a chance on him, even in a superflex league.
26. SAM DARNOLD CAR
Age: 24 • 6’3” • 225 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
2,208 Pass YD • 9 Pass TD • 11 INT • 7.5 AY@T (40th%) • 217 Rush YD • 2 Rush TD
12 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 3
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: C- • Vision: C • Running: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 24
’20 Final Rank: 33
’21 Ranks Range: 16-30
Oh you revisionist softies! After three seasons of Sam Darnold seeing ghosts, you’re really going to
blame Adam Gase? In the immortal words of Julian Casablancas: “No more askin’ questions or excuses,
information’s here, here and everywhere.”
I get it. Despite being saddled with Teddy Bridgewater and losing Christian McCaffrey for most of last
year, Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady hasn’t lost his new-car smell, and with a healthy CMC to
go with D.J. Moore and Darnold’s old buddy Robby Anderson, the situation in Charlotte feels better for
Darnold. But until he proves capable of utilizing these dudes, Darnold deserves about as much benefit of
the doubt as Wario.
I re-watched a good deal of film to write this profile. Darnold has tons of ability! He really does. His
TD passes in Week 2 and Week 3 against the Niners and Colts, respectively, are sick throws out of
structure, where he gets pressure, avoids it with awesome instincts, throws off platform and daggers the
scores. The problem is you never know when the inverse is coming. Darnold is simply way too slow
making his reads, or he’s too reluctant to trust his read and throw to receivers who haven’t broken open
yet. And when he does this, he’s so comfortable in the scramble drill, he’ll try way too much hero-ball,
and make dreadful mistakes trying to replicate the kind of TDs I referenced earlier. Home Dolphins,
road Bills…throws on the move, against his body, awful picks that became synonymous with Darnold’s
three-year stint with the Jets.
Can he clean this up? I don’t know. Gase isn’t an offensive dummy. Certainly, Darnold had poor casts
around him, and he lost time to serious injuries in each of his pro seasons. If Brady and the Panthers
can break Darnold down, and get him to throw with more touch and anticipation while also cutting
down on the late-in-play disaster passes, maybe there’s something to be salvaged. Personally I think
if that were possible, Gase already would’ve done it. But either way, please don’t tell me Darnold is
immediately destined for reclamation solely because of cast and coaching. The player himself has given
us enough information to call him wildly disappointing so far.
27. JARED GOFF DET
Pod nickname:
Ryan Goffling
Age: 27 • 6’4” • 222 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
3,952 Pass YD • 20 Pass TD • 13 INT • 6.2 AY@T (4th%) • 99 Rush YD • 4 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 11
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B+ • Accuracy: C+ • Vision: C+ • Running: C • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 16
’20 Final Rank: 19
’21 Ranks Range: 20-28
I tried to tell you. When the Goffling was lighting up the world in 2017 and ’18, I tried to explain why
he wasn’t an elite quarterback, but as long as he was submitting top-12 fantasy seasons I had a hard
time convincing you. In fact, in true Ryan-Tannehill-circa-’21 fashion, I gave up a couple years ago and
ranked Goff as my QB10 just in time for the mask to come off and Goff to reveal that he is actually
Kyle Orton.
Turns out Sean McVay understood all along. In a move colder than a fart trapped in a dead polar bear,
the Rams shipped Goff to NFL Siberia for Matthew Stafford. That means the Goffling moves from one
of the NFL’s better receiving corps to one helmed by Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams, and from
one of the league’s best play callers to Anthony Lynn. It is, shall we say, a poorer neighborhood to live
in.
But if we’re blaming Goff’s poor fantasy prospects entirely on his surrounding cast, we’re making a
mistake. There are fewer QBs with a starker performance contrast between clean-pocket and pressured
performance, and Goff has a well-earned reputation for being slow to come off his first read. The
main defensive game plan against Goff seems to be muddling secondary coverages until after the snap,
knowing that some of the time, he’ll just read it wrong and throw directly into traffic. McVay earned his
“genius” label by advancing the cause of RPOs and four-wide and jet-motion and bootlegs in all downand-distance situations, but it’s possible he merely emphasized that playbook style because he feared the
turnover havoc Goff would wreak left to his own devices. The Lions will sure learn from this, and give
their new QB as many defined reads as possible, because Goff actually is a good ball handler and playaction worker and when he finds the right receiver against the right coverage, can make every throw in
the book. But I believe the guy we’ve seen the past two years is closer to the real Jared Goff than his
first two scintillating campaigns, and as such, more mediocrity will likely ensue.
28. JAMEIS WINSTON NO
Age: 27 • 6’4” • 231 lbs • Injury: 3
Pod nickname:
Wacky Waving Inflatable
Arm-Flailing Tube Man
2020 Stats:
75 Pass YD • 0 Pass TD • 0 INT • 5.5 AY@T • -6 Rush YD • 0 Rush TD
4 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 • Top 24 Finishes: 0
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B+ • Accuracy: C • Vision: C- • Running: B • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 37
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 18-40
Conventional (read: Batman) logic has it that you either die a hero or live long enough to become a
villain. Jameis knows. Early in his Buccaneers career, he wasn’t exactly good, but he gathered disciples.
From 2016 to ’19, Winston had as many or more games with three-plus passing TDs than Matthew
Stafford, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton and Jared Goff. The fact that he also led the entire world in
interceptions over the same period was mere minutiae. Someday and soon, he’d correct his wild
proclivities, take coaching, clean up his crab-leg-stealing, Uber-driver-groping ways, and become a QB
mensch.
Alas, as his career in Tampa wound down, Jameis shed believers faster than Theranos, Matt Lauer and
going out at night wearing a fedora. I couldn’t even find folks to argue with me about him anymore!
That ’19 season—in which Winston had nine multi-interception games and threw the most INTs in a
season since ’88—proved everything you really needed to know: Winston is aggressive to a fault, but
simply can’t be trusted with a football (and possibly anything else) in his hands.
But Drew Brees retired.
So now the Saints are headed into ’21 with a truly unholy alliance under center: I’m presuming Winston
will take more snaps, but Taysom Hill will run around and grin through his mouthpiece a lot and score
an annoying number of touchdowns. In my opinion, Hill isn’t a good enough thrower to win the job
entirely. But he’s going to play. That leaves Winston in the awkward position of having fewer snaps to
prove that anything’s changed in his wacky waving arm-flailing game. That was always doubtful anyway,
because Jameis is a knucklehead’s knucklehead, and simply breathing the same locker room air as Sean
Payton isn’t likely to change that. (That fact that Michael Thomas looks questionable in Week 1 because
of ankle surgery doesn’t help.) Still, I’d take a shot on Winston first, simply because he will take shots,
he will go down the field, and for at least part of a season it’s possible he catches fire. Just hopefully not
literally. Which is also definitely possible.
29. ZACH WILSON NYJ
Age: 22 • 6’2” • 214 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Johnny manziel
’21 Ranks Range: 20-30 • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüü
Let’s get it on record now: if the reaction of my draft-savvy friends and colleagues is any indication,
Wilson will be the Mitch Trubisky of the 2021 NFL Draft. Of the five experts I had on the podcast, I
couldn’t find a single one who believed the Jets should take him #2 overall. I daresay every one of them
believes we’ll look back on Wilson’s selection much like we view Trubisky’s: with disbelief that someone
could select him over the quarterbacks taken after him. (In Trubisky’s case, that’s Patrick Mahomes and
Deshaun Watson. In Wilson’s, it’s Trey Lance and Justin Fields.)
Wilson’s supposed upside is that he’s a Mahomes-in-waiting: a big-armed, scrambling, aggressive, offplatform (read: sidearm, on the run, while jumping) thrower. The problem is that I couldn’t find anyone
who actually believes this. The name Wilson most often evoked was Johnny Manziel, which of course
sounds terrifying. But if we can imagine a world where Manziel wasn’t derailed by personal problems,
maybe he’d have worked out as an NFL QB? Swashbuckling, throwing on the run, looking to make plays
down the field…these are things we’re supposed to want, things that the Cousins/Carr/Goff modus
doesn’t try and as a result sort of bores us to death. Alas, very few players have the talent to execute the
wild stuff Mahomes does. When you try to be Mahomes but don’t quite have his preternatural ability
to throw accurately while allowing every other play to become an out-of-structure scramble drill, your
results look like Jameis Winston’s or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s or (insert shudder) Sam Darnold. And nobody
wants that.
Wilson won’t be boring. He had a great ’20 college season submitting wildly impressive, borderline
Mahomes-esque highlights, but he did it against middling competition. His instinct is to pass up the
short stuff and go deep when he can, and the Jets have assembled a motley crew of wideouts with
some speed: Corey Davis, Denzel Mims and Elijah Moore. They’re going to make some big plays. But if
Wilson doesn’t rein himself in, and if it turns out he’s not Mahomes…he’s also gonna throw a bunch of
picks.
30. TYROD TAYLOR HOU
Age: 32 • 6’1” • 217 lbs • Injury: 15
2020 Stats:
208 Pass YD • 0 Pass TD • 0 INT • 9.6 AY@T • 7 Rush YD • 0 Rush TD
2 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 • Top 24 Finishes: 0
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: C • Vision: C- • Running: A? • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 31
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 20-N/A
Tyrod Taylor was already a pretty sympathetic figure. They didn’t literally have to turn him into
Rasputin.
You’ll still find folks who believe Taylor got a raw deal in Buffalo and Cleveland. (I am not one of those
folks.) “He rarely made the big mistake,” went the argument. “He flashed impressive mobility and did
everything his coaches asked and hovered around .500, got the Bills to their first playoffs in 18 years,
and played okay while the Browns promised they were going to wait on Baker Mayfield.” I’ll argue that
at every step of his NFL career, Taylor has been more inhibitor than accelerator, that he’s one of the
game’s true merciless check-down artists, and that whatever fantasy excitement you think he brings with
his legs might be more memory than reality in his age-32 season. But sure, he’s always seemed like a
pretty likeable guy.
That’s why a Chargers team doctor stabbing him in the lung when trying to deliver a painkilling injection
prior to Week 2 of 2020 seems particularly cruel. As NFL injuries go, it’s up there. It’s not Donté
Stallworth suffering burns in a hot air balloon crash, or Chris Hanson dropping Jack Del Rio’s ax on
his foot in the locker room, or Bill Gramatica tearing his ACL celebrating a first-half field goal, or Gus
Frerotte headbutting a concrete wall after scoring a touchdown. But it was pretty gnarly!
Anyway, with Deshaun Watson widely presumed to be heading for a lengthy suspension, for the moment
I’m going to assume he’s not playing for the Texans this year. If that changes, I’ll update. For now, I’ll
assume Taylor will get first crack at a starting gig that has lost most of its luster. Taylor is a terrible fit
for deep threat Brandin Cooks, and there’s no one else on this roster who looks exciting to throw to.
The line can’t run block at all. We don’t love judging situations as “worst in the NFL” before the season
begins, and normally this would be a cue to find someone we can draft below market value. (Maybe
Cooks?) Unfortunately, Taylor isn’t a starting-caliber player. Expect to see multiple guys under center
this season, including third-round rookie Davis Mills.
31. CAM NEWTON NE
Age: 32 • 6’5” • 245 lbs • Injury: 17
2020 Stats:
2,657 Pass YD • 8 Pass TD • 10 INT • 6.8 AY@T (13th%) • 592 Rush YD • 12 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 8 • Top 24 Finishes: 9
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: D • Accuracy: C- • Vision: B • Running: A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 13
’20 Final Rank: 16
’21 Ranks Range: 16-40
Did I really make Cam Newton a flag player in 2020? Good lord. Okay, yeah, it’s not that damaging to
your fantasy team when you wait-wait-wait on QB and then whiff on a supposed sleeper in a doubledigit round. But it’s pretty damaging to my reputation! On “How To Fight Loneliness,” Wilco sang,
“Whatever’s going down, will follow you around.” Dammit, Jeff Tweedy! Not now!
To be fair, my profile of Newton last year began with the warning that if it turned out he wasn’t
healthy, it would be a bad selection and a terrible year for the Patriots. His shoulder cartilage needed
surgery after the ’18 season, following up a rotator cuff procedure after ’16. And my dudes, all is not
well in that hulking right arm. I’ll admit the first couple games last year fooled me. Week 1 against the
Dolphins, he barely threw but came out rip-roaring with read options and rushed for 75 yards and two
TDs. Week 2 against the Seahawks, he looked borderline great throwing it, plus rushed for two more
scores and nearly engineered a last-second comeback. He was QB3! Life was good!
But oh my God, after that. You know I wear the Patriots footie pajamas, and you know I accept your
hate and derision for that fact, but I have to say: it’s been a long time since I felt nothing about a Patriots
team. That’s what Newton did. He. Could. Not. Throw. He missed two games with COVID, but does
that explain consistently spiking throws several yards in front of his receivers’ feet? I have to believe
the shoulder was hurt again. Did New England have one of the NFL’s worst group of running backs and
receivers? Yup. Does that explain being unable to toss a ball ten yards to a human being standing right
over there with nobody guarding him? Personally I believe it does not.
So Newton signed a cheap contract to return to New England, but it was always likely someone else
would join that QB room. At first it seemed like it might be Jimmy Garoppolo, but it turned out to
be rookie Mac Jones. It won’t be a shocker if Newton begins the year under center, and while adding
Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor makes for a weird group, they’re certainly better
at catching the ball. Eventually, though, unless Newton has a time machine implanted in that poor
bedraggled shoulder, Jones will get his chance. (Let’s be fair, Newton looked really good in New
England’s second preseason game, throwing with more zing and accuracy than we saw most of
last year. That probably forestalls Jones’s ascension to the big chair in September. But it’s gonna
happen.)
32. TEDDY BRIDGEWATER DEN
Age: 29 • 6’2” • 215 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
3,733 Pass YD • 15 Pass TD • 11 INT • 7.0 AY@T (22nd%) • 279 Rush YD • 5 Rush TD
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 12
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C- • Accuracy: A- • Vision: B+ • Running: C • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 27
’20 Final Rank: 18
’21 Ranks Range: 20-N/A
Sing it out loud. Heck, make it a mixtape, I don’t mind:
Like a bridge over troubled waters
I will wreck my knee
Poor Teddy B was almost certainly never the same after a gruesome 2016 knee injury in practice
cost him two full seasons. So while our evaluations of him must necessarily be harsh—because he’s a
pulse-deadening player best-suited to be a backup—let’s never lapse into cruelty. Bridgewater will be a
vagabond for the rest of his NFL career, including ’21 with Denver, but the fact that he has a career is
nice.
In his single season as Carolina’s starter, Bridgewater lost 11 games, and eight of those by a single score.
Yes, the Panthers had eight chances for game-winning or -tying drives and never once finished the job.
You can’t blame the quarterback for everything, but it tracks with the experience of watching his film:
when defenses are aggressively up on you trying to stop you in your tracks, Bridgewater’s usual staple
of screens and digs and shallow crosses works less well, he has to read and force, and he just isn’t that
guy. Sure, a knee injury that cost him Week 11 might’ve been partly to blame, and missing Christian
McCaffrey was a disaster in more ways than one. But a Teddy Bridgewater offense is just too easy to
defend when the rubber meets the road.
That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player. He’s as accurate as they come with a clean pocket, and he’s not
fully noodle-armed: he’s not great at the deep-over route, but he can certainly zing it 35 yards without
lobbing it straight up in the air Philip-Rivers-style. The Broncos have chosen him as their Week 1
starter, and he will keep the trains running on time. Drew Lock has greater potential, but obviously
the team has decided it doesn’t trust him. You can expect a less swashbuckling attack for
however long Bridgewater lasts under center, which is less-than-great for all the skill players in
Denver. I think you can probably also expect Lock to make starts at some point in ’21.
33. JIMMY GAROPPOLO SF
Age: 30 • 6’2” • 225 lbs • Injury: 23
2020 Stats:
1,096 Pass YD • 7 Pass TD • 5 INT • 6.3 AY@T • 25 Rush YD • 0 Rush TD
6 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 4
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: C+ • Accuracy: A- • Vision: B+ • Running: C- • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 17
’20 Final Rank: 39
’21 Ranks Range: 20-N/A
Jimmy G has no more guaranteed money left on his contract and the Niners could recoup all but about
$3 million of his cap hit by cutting or trading him before the season begins. So there’s at least some
chance Garoppolo won’t be on San Francisco’s roster come September. Handsome James has a no-trade
clause for 2021, and anyway, a potential suitor would probably play chicken with the 49ers, hoping they
release Garoppolo so they can negotiate a number well below the $24 million per year they’d inherit
if they traded for him. Blah blah blah—that’s all a way of saying: wow, has Jimmy G’s star fallen fast!
It’s barely more than a year since he led his team to a Super Bowl, and now Trey Lance is the future
quarterback and might start most of this year, too. Ravishingly attractive people aren’t supposed to be
treated so shoddily! What’s next, Margot Robbie having to open her own car door?
I don’t think this means Garoppolo is terrible. It means that Kyle Shanahan imagined being married to
him for another two years at a top-five QB salary and pulled a Gob Bluth: “I’ve made a huge mistake.”
Garoppolo barely got underway (with a bad Week 1 performance against Arizona) when he suffered a
high-ankle sprain in Week 2, missed a couple games, came back in Week 5 against Miami and pooped
the bed with three terrible throws to end the first half which got him benched, suffered a different
high-ankle sprain in Week 8, and that was it. I’ve never been as low on Jimmy G as Cousin Josh, but I
understand the complaints about Garoppolo’s wing: he sometimes winds up looking like a game manager
because he’s accurate and a good reader of defenses, and his game plans have rarely accentuated deep
balls. Truly, though, I think the reasons this divorce is coming involve money, health and upside. It’s
never been about the 49ers being “too run-heavy.” It’s been about whether Garoppolo is your best player
and whether he can stay on the field. (In three of four seasons with the Niners, he’s played a maximum
of six games.) Seems like Shanny Junior has had enough. Garoppolo could start Week 1, and he could
start all through September and maybe even beyond. But eventually, no matter what the beat reporters
say, I think the #3 pick is gonna eat. If Jimmy G goes elsewhere, where he’s a clear starter? He’ll get a
bump on this list, but probably not a massive one.
34. TAYSOM HILL NO
Age: 31 • 6’2” • 221 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
928 Pass YD • 4 Pass TD • 2 INT • 6.8 AY@T • 457 Rush YD • 8 Rush TD
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 5
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: B • Accuracy: B • Vision: C- • Running: A • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 43
’20 Final Rank: 29
’21 Ranks Range: 14-N/A
Taysom Hill gets a profile!
Five years into his NFL career, Hill has at long last aw-shucksed his way into this incredibly prestigious
document, where I will no doubt make dumb jokes at his expense and dismiss the possibility he’ll be
useful for your fantasy team. Congrats, kid. You finally made it.
When it comes to Hill, the only question that really matters isn’t, “Is he the next Steve Young?” because
he isn’t. To make Hill a fantasy factor, we need merely wonder: can he keep a starting NFL gig for
an entire season? He’s a 221-pound runner with an uncommon nose for the end zone, and if he ever
started 16 games under center, he’d be rosterable in all leagues. (He also might get hurt because he’s
such a bruiser, but that’s a question for another time.)
I’m skeptical, but then I’ve always been skeptical when it comes to Hill. In his first two starts last year
in place of an injured Drew Brees, the Saints ran a pared-down game plan, allowed him to roll out and
cut the field in half, and basically put training wheels on. Week 13 in Atlanta, they let him drop back
and make throws down the field, and he was terrific. But Week 14 against the Eagles he showed his
limitations: not enough anticipation, a bunch of overthrows and incorrect reads, plus awful ball security.
He looked like a dude learning on the job, which of course he was.
It’s possible that I’ve got this wrong, that it’s not Jameis Winston but Hill who has the lead in postBrees New Orleans. Maybe Hill is about to do a Lamar-Jackson-style season and win you your crown
by being an early-season waiver pickup or even a late-round draftee, then scoring a dozen rushing TDs.
(At least he doesn’t have tight end eligibility anymore. Those were fun tweets.) I’m definitely willing
to reconsider Hill’s rank vis-à-vis Jameis in August. The cheat code is wildly strong in this grinning
goober, and if he’s an unquestioned starter, he vaults up the rolls. We’ll just have to see how committed
Sean Payton is to this particular bit.
35. MAC JONES NE
Age: 23 • 6’3” • 217 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
chad pennington
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüü
If you tuned into our YouTube livestream on Day 1 of the NFL Draft, you already know how I felt when
the Footie Pajama Patriots drafted Mac Jones. After watching them get beaten out by the Bears in a
quest to trade up for electric Justin Fields, I saw this national-championship-winning tub of goo enter
the Cam Newton Replacement Sweepstakes, and I turned purple.
Jones is not a fit human. He is triangular. He is great-auntie-shaped. And I love how in New England,
that immediately means the comparisons to Tom Brady are even more valid, because Brady was himself
slightly lumpy as a draftee. My concern here is that New England put its next four seasons into the
hands of Kirk Cousins: a competent pocket passer who looks decent play-to-play and largely avoids
mistakes, but struggles when he has to improvise or, um, like, move. It’s unfair to proclaim that because
his receiver talent was so extraordinary at Alabama (DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle were top-10
picks) Jones never had to throw to covered receivers. That’s not true. He repeatedly showed he could
process information and be accurate in close quarters. It’s honestly more the offensive line that has me
worried: Jones just didn’t experience pressure that most college quarterbacks get, and when rushers got
near, he didn’t always react great to it.
Despite my first response, I admit Jones could work out fine. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels built
their empire creating a system that allowed Brady to flower to his fullest possible form, and they
obviously believe Jones is the same kind of guy. Jones may be a one-year starter on a historically great
college team, but even I have to admit he had more collegiate success than Brady. He’ll never be a good
runner, and he’ll have to sharpen his reaction times by a lot because he also doesn’t have a howitzer
for an arm. In 2021, it seems reasonable to believe that unless Jones is overpoweringly good in camp,
Newton will be under center Week 1. But Jones—who has been pretty darned good as the secondman-in in his two exhibition-game appearances—will get starts. Guaranteed. Or your next basket of
mozzarella sticks is on the house.
36. DREW LOCK DEN
Age: 25 • 6’4” • 228 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
2,933 Pass YD • 16 Pass TD • 15 INT • 9.0 AY@T (100th%) • 160 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD
13 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 4 • Top 24 Finishes: 7
Film Grades:
Arm Strength: A • Accuracy: D • Vision: B • Running: C+ • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 25
’20 Final Rank: 23
’21 Ranks Range: 14-40
It would be easy to write a Drew Lock profile in which I rag on the kid’s first full season as a starting
NFL quarterback. The numbers are hellacious. Lock posted the league’s worst completion percentage
and had the league’s third-worst off-target percentage. Early in the year, he was a legit mess: holding
the ball too long, throwing crazy interceptions, failing tests when it came to footwork, eye discipline,
pre- and post-snap reads…really just giving the Broncos little chance to win. We were deep in Tebow
Country, where thrown footballs look like they’re powered by an angry toddler’s remote control and
fans peek between their fingers to watch games.
But revisiting Lock’s work from Week 13 forward, I was surprised not to hate his work nearly as much
as I expected. Some of the mistakes he made over the first three months didn’t recur. Now he was
throwing more consistently to the open man. He was reading safeties and blitzers better. He didn’t force
as many throws. He had a clueless fumble-six against the Bills that once again brought his bumbling
pocket awareness into focus, but there’s no doubt in my mind he was better.
That’s not a full-throated endorsement. It’s mostly to say: boy, he really should’ve beaten out Teddy
Bridgewater! He has obvious physical advantages: arm strength, escapability, aggressiveness. Lock
would’ve been the right one to unlock a big-boy offense, unlike Teddy B, whom we know will gamemanage the Broncos to a stifling 6-11 record. It’s a super-bad sign for his career to lose this
competition, and it makes you think the Broncos are about done with him as a long-term
solution. In ’21, there’s a great chance both guys start games. And you don’t want any part of
either one of them in a fantasy league.
37. JACOB EASON IND
Age: 24 • 6’6” • 231 lbs
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A • Situation: C? • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Eason gets a last-minute profile at the end of July because Carson Wentz hurt a foot in training
camp, and needed surgery. Wentz’s comical timeline has him potentially available Week 1 and
potentially missing time all the way into October. Barring a last-minute trade or free-agency
acquisition, Eason looks like next in line. And truthfully: I don’t have any better idea how that’ll go than
you do.
Eason has a reputation for prototypical NFL size and arm strength, but has never yet proven he can
manifest into any more than a howitzer-packing galoot. He arrived at the University of Georgia as the
nation’s #1 recruit and flat-out didn’t play well as a freshman, got hurt as a sophomore but also lost
his job to Jake Fromm with nary a whimper, and transferred to the University of Washington where he
played one year and was merely fine. He arrived in Indy as a fourth-round pick, probably destined for
a career holding a clipboard; when your Draft Day comp is Brock Osweiler, your future on the front
of a Wheaties box isn’t guaranteed. Scouts admire Eason’s physical tools but knock his pocket presence
and ability to roll through progressions. He just didn’t handle pressure well in college. If Wentz is really
destined to miss time, I suppose the good news is that the Colts theoretically feature a strong offensive
line and several intriguing young skill weapons. Heck, if I’d been writing the Almanac in 2001, I’m sure
I wouldn’t have given Tom Brady a scintillating review, either. If Eason gets a chance, we’ll be watching,
but we’ll also be waiting a good while before we take any kind of fantasy plunge. (Plus we’re now told
Wentz has a chance to be ready Week 1.)
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
Gardner Minshew, JAC
Marcus Mariota, LV
Jordan Love, GB
Kellen Mond, MIN
Davis Mills, HOU
Mitch Trubisky, BUF
Jacoby Brissett, MIA
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Andy Dalton, CHI
Taylor Heinecke, WAS
Tyler Huntley, BAL
Joe Flacco, PHI
Brandon Allen, CIN
P.J. Walker, CAR
1. DALVIN COOK MIN
Age: 26 • 5’10” • 210 lbs • Injury: 8
2020 Stats:
1,557 Rush YD • 44 Rec • 361 Rec YD • 17 TD • 6 Big Runs • 46 Snaps/G • 17 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 11 STD/10 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 13 STD/13 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: A • Power: C+ • Receiving: B+ • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 5
’20 Final Rank: 3
’21 Ranks Range: 1-4
I’m the one natural one
And you may as well crash with me
In this case, the Folk Implosion had it wrong. In 2021, there is no natural one. Coming off a season
of pain and destruction among running backs, there’s no convincing argument that any of the NFL’s
top RBs should be the unquestioned #1 player off draft boards. I’m casting my lot with Cook, but I
understand why you might lean elsewhere. It’s close.
Even a couple years ago, it would’ve been laughable to select Cook before the position’s other stars. He
tore an ACL in ’17, then lost a significant chunk of ’18 to a hamstring problem and didn’t look anything
like a transcendent player. The NFL Combine lovers who’d thrown cold water on Cook’s draft stock
because of bad times in the short shuttle and three cone crowed. Cook wasn’t special! Then, even after
a 1,600-scrimmage-yard season in ’19, the haters were legion. Adam Schefter went so far as to tweet, “I
wouldn’t draft him in a fantasy first round” because Cook might hold out for a new contract before ’20
began.
But the day before Minnesota’s opener, Cook signed an extension, then blew doors. My notes on his
game film are littered with things like, “He can run power trap,” “He can obviously run zone,” “Man,
are this guy’s feet electrocuted?” When we compare Cook to the rest of the #1 candidates, we don’t
come away thinking he’s the unquestioned best. His long speed is really good, but it’s not Saquon
Barkley’s. His acceleration is special, but it’s probably not quite Alvin Kamara’s. His change-of-direction
is wonderful, but Christian McCaffrey’s is probably better. Yet Cook is an incredible package…I
offhandedly referred to him as “a Porsche” a few years back, and that’s stuck in my mind. One of my
favorite RB performances of ’20 came Week 8, at Packers, where Cook slashed and broke tackles and cut
perfectly into holes and took a screen 50 yards looking like one of the best open-field runners around.
Seriously, at his best moments, Cook leaves so much safety lingerie on the deck, he should probably pay
dues in the stripper’s union.
He’s got a stable offense with good surrounding talent. His offensive line has struggled in pass
protection but run blocks better, plus added a first-round tackle and a third-round guard. Anyone who
spent the last couple years shouting, “Watch out for Alexander Mattison” now has to admit there’s no
threat to Cook’s depth-chart primacy. And most importantly: he’s great! Now, is he world-historically
great? I’d argue no. Is he leagues better than other players in my top 5? I would also say no. But he’s
the one coming off a mostly healthy season, coming off 1,900 scrimmage yards, who’s scored 30 TDs
the past two years combined and who can create even when he doesn’t get a perfect setup. In PPR my
answer would be different, but in standard, Cook is the one.
2. ALVIN KAMARA NO
Pod nickname:
Bitchin’ Kamara
Age: 26 • 5’10” • 215 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
932 Rush YD • 83 Rec • 756 Rec YD • 21 TD • 7 Big Runs • 42 Snaps/G • 22 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 11 STD/12 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 14 STD/13 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: A- • Power: B • Receiving: A+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 4
’20 Final Rank: 2
’21 Ranks Range: 1-4
Here’s the dingdong argument against Kamara you should not accept:
“Drew Brees is retired! That offense will never be the same! Jameis Winston is a middling QB without a
clue and Taysom Hill will steal all the rushing touchdowns, and I don’t want to pay for any big piece of
that Saints offense circa 2021.”
Would it be better for everyone involved if Prime Brees walked through that door? Of course. A better
QB is good. This has been my TED Talk. But please don’t tell me Hill stealing TDs means the death
knell for Kamara’s value: Hill scored eight last year while Kamara was busy scoring 21. Also please don’t
tell me Jameis Winston can’t blunder around the field like Sideshow Bob stepping on rakes and still
produce worthwhile fantasy seasons for his skill guys: Doug Martin is right over there waving hello.
Being without a great quarterback is a negative for Kamara. You know what? He didn’t have a great
quarterback in ’20, when he led so many fantasy teams to a title. I agree that any RB who plays on a
team with a potentially suspicious QB has a smaller margin for error. But supremely talented RBs are
still encouraged to apply.
Here’s the argument against Kamara that seems wiser:
“You’re putting him higher than last year’s presumptive #1 and #2 RBs only because they got hurt and
he didn’t. You’re forgetting what it was like to draft Kamara in ’19, when a high-ankle sprain wrecked
his season and he finished as RB16.”
Yup. It’s true! The top of the running back rolls is tricky this year. Kamara has zero 1,000-yard rushing
seasons and he’s vying with some dudes who’ve done elite numbers. He only missed one game in ’20
(because of COVID), but two years ago he slaughtered his fantasy owners. If you’re working on the
every-other-year principle (as in: an RB gets hurt in seasons after he gets a big workload), then you’ll
believe the other options are rested, whereas Kamara is due to get hurt again. I can only speak for
myself: as I evaluate all the potential early-round RBs, there is some injury recency bias. Not a ton, but
it’s there: a worry that the injured player isn’t quite himself or doesn’t get quite the same workload
coming back.
And the bottom line is: nobody runs like this guy. He may not give you elite rushing numbers, but
that’s because the Saints are so busy throwing him one-yard passes and watching him do that crouchedpanther thing, where he becomes this untacklable, ultra-shifty monster with his foot stomping the
accelerator. I truly cannot envision a world in which Sean Payton becomes so enamored with Taysom
Hill (and, um, Jameis Winston?) that he erases the screen game. It’s deadly, easy money. I can’t promise
Kamara stays healthy again, but if he does, he’s the safest RB around.
3. CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY CAR
Pod nickname:
Bench Press / Tiny Bones
Age: 25 • 5’11” • 205 lbs • Injury: 13
2020 Stats:
225 Rush YD • 17 Rec • 149 Rec YD • 6 TD • 0 Big Runs • 53 Snaps/G • 26 Routes/G
3 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: A+ • Power: C- • Receiving: A+ • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 3
’20 Final Rank: 51
’21 Ranks Range: 1-6
Let me just start here: any running back can get hurt. You don’t have to be a high-workload tiny-boned
superstar to miss three months with an ankle injury and ruin everyone’s fantasy season. We’re never
going to be able to correlate McCaffrey’s insane workload in 2018 and ’19 with his injury in ’20.
But…can you feel the I-told-you-so creeping in?
In last year’s Almanac, I took the mea culpa for not respecting McCaffrey as one of the best players in
the NFL. But I also did a Research Project reminding you of the Curse Of 400, which in olden times
(say, 2010) was near to gospel: RBs almost always disappoint the year after they hit 400 scrimmage
touches. Plus, in addition to being just the third guy to hit that workload milestone since ’09, CMC was
the smallest man to do it this millennium.
Yup, I’ve now been saying it for three years running: Christian McCaffrey’s workloads were too big for
his size. I just hope the Panthers are saying it now.
For McCaffrey to deliver a super-elite fantasy season he doesn’t need to handle it 25 times a game.
It’s actually kind of absurd, when you think about it. Derrick Henry won a rushing title in ’19 with 20
touches per game. (He reached 24 last year, and we’ll talk about those potential roosting chickens in a
bit.) I certainly don’t expect you or anyone else to live by some vague and arbitrary statistical maxim…
but in this case it makes some sense. I’m not going to tell you CMC got hurt last year because he’s
small—after all, lots of bigger RBs got hurt, too—but I’m also not agreeing that the degree to which your
frame allows you to dish out contact has no bearing on your likelihood of getting injured. My evidence?
NFL teams have known it for generations. They simply don’t give men McCaffrey’s size that amount of
contact. McCaffrey at 80 or 90% of his ’19 workload would give Carolina great return on investment,
and save him five car crashes per week. I hope that’s what’s coming. CMC can be the RB1 without
playing over 1,000 snaps from scrimmage, which was his workload in ’19...80 more than any other RB
this millennium. (And I only issue that qualifier because I don’t have numbers that go further back than
that.)
There’s no longer any doubt that McCaffrey is an all-world baller. His elusiveness is the best in the
game, bar none. His receiving and route-running skills are incredibly refined. He’s awesome. If you want
to shoot for two seasons ago and take him first overall in a standard-scoring league, I honestly can’t
argue. And I have him ranked #1 in PPR. But no more hero ball! Let’s make it through the full year, and
then CMC can say “I told you so” back, and wave those tiny-boned forefingers in my face.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
Harris and McCaffrey are pretty close to the same size (editor’s note: I’m taller!) and
you wouldn’t smash Harris straight up the gut 20 times a week, would you? This year,
I’d like to think the coaching staff goes, ‘All right, we can’t run him the way we used to
because it’s stupid, so let’s look at the way the Saints use Kamara and do that.’ Instead
of 18 to 20 carries a week, we want 12 to 15, and let him go crazy in the receiving
game. I love McCaffrey, but I don’t want more than 20 touches per game. CMC is like
your dream car. You take the convertible out in the sun, you drive around smiling at
everyone else in an obnoxious pink t-shirt, and then put it away when things get a
little cloudy. To this point, they act like he’s Eddie George or Jamal Lewis. They think
he’s a thicc back. And he’s not!”
4. NICK CHUBB CLE
Pod nickname:
In The Name Of Chubb / Power Of Chubb
Age: 26 • 5’11” • 227 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
1,067 Rush YD • 16 Rec • 150 Rec YD • 12 TD • 12 Big Runs • 33 Snaps/G • 12 Routes/G
12 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 10 STD/10 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: B • Power: A • Receiving: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 8
’20 Final Rank: 9
’21 Ranks Range: 1-6
“Make up your mind,” sang a band called What Made Milwaukee Famous. “Are you in are you out? I’ve
got no patience for your impetuous doubt.” You’ve been listening to me talk about Chubb on the podcast
for three years now. I thoroughly understand that he’s never submitted a top-five fantasy season, that he
has Kareem Hunt on board again, and that he missed the first four games of his career last year with a
knee injury. By ranking Chubb this high, I’m making a call. I think we’re going to view him differently
after the 2021 season.
There are a lot of great running backs in the league. But I think if you lined them all up, I’d say Chubb
is the best. (That may partly be because Saquon Barkley’s ACL recovery is an unknown we can’t answer
until we see him play again.) A big dude shouldn’t have feet like that, so capable of cutting back that
linebackers and defensive backs flail as helplessly as Craig Ehlo on that long-ago Jordan winner. (Sorry
Cleveland fans.) Watch Chubb’s game-sealing run Week 10 against the Texans: Houston has thrown
everything at the line to stop Chubb and get the ball back, it’s a pitchout sweep on a third-and-3, Justin
Reid is unblocked and has an angle on Chubb as the RB runs to the sideline, Chubb sees Reid has
him, cuts it inside as though to bully his way for the first down, then suddenly tapdances outside, Reid
falls down, and Chubb is off like a rocket, all the way down the sideline, and then unselfishly ducks
out of bounds at the 1. (I had him in a lot of leagues, and didn’t find this last maneuver particularly
charming.) I definitely know small backs who can make that run. But Nick Chubb is a 227-pound
moose! It’s physics-defying.
Listen, if you want to play the “projected” game: had Chubb stayed healthy, he was on a pace for 1,622
scrimmage yards and 16 TDs (and that takes into account neither the fact that he got hurt early in
Week 5 nor that selfless 59-yard run that should’ve given him another score). He’d have finished RB4.
If we accept that Derrick Henry is a long-run artist—and I have to, it keeps happening!—then Chubb is,
too, and I’d argue the time it takes him to get up to speed is about half of Henry’s. We should also spare
some space for the Browns o-line, which was the NFL’s best in ’20; we’ve learned the hard way that we
can’t 100% count on a line’s quality to persist year over year, but I feel better about Chubb’s blocking
than I do any other guy high on this list. I get it. If you’re drafting based on stats, Chubb isn’t the first
big back you’re targeting early your draft. But I think he’s an amazing player. Make up your mind. Are
you in are you out?
5. DERRICK HENRY TEN
Pod nickname:
NYC Tap Water
Age: 27 • 6’3” • 247 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
2,027 Rush YD • 19 Rec • 114 Rec YD • 17 TD • 16 Big Runs • 42 Snaps/G • 12 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 10 STD/9 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 12 STD/12 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: D • Power: A+ • Receiving: D • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 10
’20 Final Rank: 1
’21 Ranks Range: 1-6
“It is April 2016. I am being drafted in the second round by the Tennessee Titans. It is January 1994.
I’m born in Yulee, Florida. It is January 2016. I’m winning the national championship at Alabama by
rushing for 158 yards on 36 carries. It is December 2018. I am rushing for four touchdowns and 238
yards in a single game. It is January 2021. I am rushing for 250 yards in the regular season finale and
making some dumb redhead cry. I am tired of this Earth. These people. I am tired of being derided in an
Almanac as though I’m some sort of Brobdingnagian antihero.”
Yeah, I almost changed Derrick Henry’s nickname to Dr. Manhattan. (Ask your parents.)
So listen: every so often in this document, we come to a player I’ve just whiffed on. All I can do is
apologize, explain my logic, and then…do it again. Yeah, I’m still probably too low on Henry. But at least
this time he’s in my top five!
Watching the Titans offense—and Henry in particular—kind of makes me insane. It shouldn’t work.
Play-to-play, carry-to-carry, Derrick Henry represents the kind of running back I’ve derided for a
decade-and-a-half doing this dumb job. All those times I told you a big statistical output was misleading
and the RB was doomed never to repeat it? All those calls on Alex Collins, Jordan Howard, LeGarrette
Blount, Jeremy Hill, Chris Ivory, Leonard Fournette, etc. that you’ve maybe even appreciated over the
years? The reason I’ve called Henry overvalued is that his film has always evinced something like those
guys’ film did. Ponderous to the hole. Slow to cut. Middling vision. Game after game I watch the Titans,
and Henry goes three quarters doing nothing. He was stuffed for zero yards or fewer a league-high
59 times in ’20 and he weighs 247 pounds. That shouldn’t be! In my experience, when NFL teams get
these kind of performances from running backs, they tend to move on. They tend not to give them
378 carries, most in the league since ’14 and second-most in the league since ’06. These kinds of
observations usually mean a dude is on his way out.
And in Henry’s case, it’s just not true.
The Titans are built around Henry’s ridiculous size and strength and ability (so far) to stay healthy.
They will give it to him early and he will fail, and they will give it to him in the middle and he will fail,
and they’ll give it to him late and he will fail, but mixed in with all those opportunities, even though
defenses know it’s coming, every so often…you get the thunderbolt from above, and Henry gets his
shoulders squared and gets up to speed and he’s gone. He led the league in big runs last year. He led
the league in just about everything a running back can do last year. He’s a compiler, yes. He’s not close
to the most talented player at his position. I think eventually he’ll break down, because the kinds of
workloads he’s gotten the past two seasons are from a different era. But how can I deny what the guy
has done? I still don’t want to rank him where I’d have to take him, because it goes against the way I
evaluate players. But if Derrick Henry stays healthy, man, he’ll probably look down at me, and frown at
me, and explode me in the snow all over again.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I started doing Derrick Henry’s training videos this summer. He has this one where he
puts chains around his neck and starts doing pushups. I think doing that is actually
really dangerous for your spine, but I’m willing to risk it if I can wind up looking
like Henry. Not only has he transformed my body into being an elite specimen…
he’s transformed my La Liga team, too. I don’t see any reason why this guy would
be slowing down any time soon. He should be even money to lead the league in
touchdowns. I still think he gets over 300 carries. I love being right, and I’ve been right
on Henry all the way through.”
6. SAQUON BARKLEY NYG
Age: 24 • 5’11” • 233 lbs • Injury: 17
2020 Stats:
34 Rush YD • 6 Rec • 60 Rec YD • 0 TD • 0 Big Runs • 32 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
2 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A? • Elusiveness: A? • Power: A? • Receiving: A- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
You’re lying motionless on your back
And your legs aren’t taking any more requests
Those disobedient wrecks
—“Accidntel Deth,” Rilo Kiley
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 1
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 1-24
What do we do after Superman blows a tire? I don’t know any better than you do! I’ll take a stab at a
Research Project below, but the simple answer is: not all torn ACLs are created equal. If Barkley is about
to pull an Adrian Peterson from 2012—rushing for 2,000 yards a year after tearing a knee ligament—
this rank is too low. But if he’s gonna follow the disturbing trend of some more recent ACL injuries, I
haven’t downgraded him enough.
Unless Barkley gives us bad rehab news between now and Week 1, you’re going to have to spend a firstround pick to get him. And that’s strategic terrain that would make a Grand Canyon burro think twice.
In some order, Saquon and Christian McCaffrey were the #1 and #2 picks in every draft last season, but
they both got hurt. But CMC gets more benefit of the doubt for ’21 because his injury was less serious
and he didn’t require surgery.
And if you know anything about me, you understand how much this kills me! We lean on cliché when
it’s hard to find words: Saquon Barkley is (was?) a truly generational talent…probably literally the best
running back to come into the NFL since Peterson himself. When he’s been right, you could make the
argument that Barkley is the fastest, sharpest-cutting and deadliest-to-tackle RB in the business, all in
one package.
But he hasn’t been healthy. Barkley’s Week 2 torn ACL in ’20 might’ve erased a gimpy ’19 from your
memory: he suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3 of that season, missed most of a month, and then
didn’t look like himself again until December. None of this is to accuse Saquon’s legs of being somehow
more subject to damage than anyone else’s. But every fantasy football draft pick represents a balance
between risk and reward. It would surprise absolutely nobody if Barkley finds better luck, feels like
himself, and lays waste to defenses even behind an offensive line that’s been bad for several years. But
how could I make the argument there isn’t more risk after back-to-back injury-marred seasons, and
knee reconstruction? The fact is: a brave owner in every fantasy league is going to pull the trigger and
build their team around Saquon Barkley. And then hope. I have clearly ranked Barkley aggressively,
as though he’s going to be ready to play a decent amount in September. If we get bad news about
his progress, I’ll have to lower him. But so far, the news is all good. Barkley was activated off the
PUP list in early August and is practicing in training camp.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Can we draw any conclusions from RBs returning from
recent ACL tears?
I’m reluctant. First of all, maybe except for Dalvin Cook, we haven’t seen someone on Barkley’s
level tear an ACL since Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles did it in 2011, and both of those guys
were awesome again in their very next seasons. But meanwhile, RBs with ACL tears in the past
five seasons have a dreadful return record, and that’s scary. Then again, it’s not a murderers’ row:
Player
Lamar Miller
Rashaad Penny
Jerick McKinnon
Jay Ajayi
Dalvin Cook
Danny Woodhead
Gio Bernard
RB Rank Pre-ACL Year
22nd
59th
24th
33rd
N/A
11th
21st
ACL Year
2019
2019
2018
2018
2017
2016
2016
ACL Age
28
23
26
25
22
31
25
RB Rank Post-ACL Year
158th
139th
N/A
129th
31st
89th
36th
Is what Danny Woodhead did in his age-32 season relevant to what Barkley will do this year?
Are any of these guys? Cook might be most illustrative: after suffering his big injury as a rookie,
he struggled with strains and pulls as a sophomore and disappointed wildly, then busted loose
two years post-injury. But before you freak out about Saquon, there are old stand-bys from long
ago. Jamal Lewis? Ronnie Brown? Peterson? Charles? Terrific the year after their ACLs. You might
quibble with how much I’ve lowered Barkley from his healthy peak, but I wouldn’t take this chart
to mean he should be off your board entirely.
7. AARON JONES GB
Pod nickname:
Not Jamaal Williams
Age: 27 • 5’9” • 208 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
1,104 Rush YD • 47 Rec • 355 Rec YD • 11 TD • 6 Big Runs • 37 Snaps/G • 17 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 13 STD/13 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • Power: C • Receiving: B+ • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 9
’20 Final Rank: 5
’21 Ranks Range: 5-12
I took heat in some quarters last year, making Jones a top-10 RB and endorsing him as a strong
selection at the first-round turn. Didn’t I realize he was coming off a totally unsustainable 19-TD
season? Didn’t I know his luck was due for regression? WASN’T I PAYING ATTENTION TO THE BOX
SCORE???
Well, sure. But I was paying closer attention to Jones himself. Nobody’s going to mistake him for
Derrick Henry. He is, in the parlance, somewhat tiny-boned. But he’s a terrific player! And I don’t
have an inherent bias against the TinyBones™; I’m simply warier of their workloads and worried about
labeling them sure things. But when we’re outside the first several running backs, we’re no longer in the
realm of sure things. Jones deserves late-first/early-second consideration once again.
For some reason, Jones has always inspired an undercurrent of reluctance. First Jamaal Williams would
steal too much work. Now it’s A.J. Dillon. Oh, and he doesn’t catch it enough, or well enough. (Check
out his Week 2 grab against the Lions, split wide, lined up on corner Daryl Roberts…the kind of 50/50
fly-pattern ball you’d throw to A.J. Brown…and Jones makes a sick grab.) Well, he can’t be effective
in short yardage (he’s got 10 TDs from inside an opponent’s 3 over the past two years). Well, he’s
probably not going to sign long term (he got a four-year deal with $13 million guaranteed this winter).
I actually fully agree with the idea that a RB who’s obviously much quicker than he is strong shouldn’t
regularly dwell in the land of 20+ touches per week. Jones sprained an MCL last year and missed a
couple games, plus had to leave the NFC Championship Game with an injured chest. So Dillon’s gonna
come in and be a behemoth and take high-single-digit carries every week? Okay, there’s risk there. I can
live with it.
I’ll wrap this up by addressing the Jeopardy-themed elephant in the room: my rank of Jones would’ve
gotten worse without Aaron Rodgers. If we get some kind of August surprise and it’s Jordan Love
leading the Packers, you’re gonna hear all kinds of arguments about how that means Green Bay will
become more run-focused and everything will turn out brilliant for both Jones and Dillon. No. It would
be bad for all skill weapons if an all-time great QB departs. Fortunately it doesn’t seem like that’ll
happen in 2021, so I’m just fine with Jones.
8. EZEKIEL ELLIOTT DAL
Age: 26 • 6’ • 228 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
979 Rush YD • 52 Rec • 338 Rec YD • 8 TD • 3 Big Runs • 51 Snaps/G • 23 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/10 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: A • Receiving: B+ • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 3
’20 Final Rank: 11
’21 Ranks Range: 3-14
When it comes to Zeke Elliott, does HarrisFootball YouTube producer Dave Pyper look good or what?
Last summer, Pyper took time away from making great videos and crashing early out of online poker
tournaments to go on record several times about how freaked the idea of drafting Zeke #3 overall made
him. And he was nearly the only one! Coming off a run of brilliance that saw him finish as a top-five
fantasy RB three out of four years—interrupted only by his six-game domestic-violence suspension in
2017—Elliott didn’t have many doubters. I sure wasn’t one of them. But despite the fact that he played
15 games (he was hobbled by a calf problem in December), Elliott was wildly disappointing in ’20.
Now, Pyper’s reasoning was about the effect of big workloads: coming into last season, Elliott had backto-back years of 350+ touches, and if any 25-year-old has tread worn from his tires, Zeke’s the one.
Pyper thought Elliott would get hurt. In fact, durability was about the only thing the Cowboys star had
going for him. Dak Prescott broke his ankle, Andy Dalton scared nobody, the offensive line was a mess
for its second straight year, and second-year back Tony Pollard continued to look spry in a supplemental
role. Week-by-week, Elliott played, yet tormented his owners with pedestrian results on big workloads.
But hey, maybe it was for the wrong reason, but Pyper turned out right.
So this is a tough film-watching challenge. Can I go back and review the dozens upon dozens of times
Zeke gets met in the backfield—Elliott finished 34th out of 47 qualified rushers in average yards gained
before contact—and discern how much responsibility he bears? After all, if we decide his humdrum
’20 performance was entirely about situation, maybe we should be ushering him right back into our
top three? Well, obviously, you see my rank. I have doubt. Elliott had issues even before Dak’s injury,
with huge fumbles and key drops last September. As the team started to slide, Mike McCarthy used
Zeke in Wildcat, he used other players in Wildcat and handed it to Zeke…and you can’t look at any
Cowboys tape and fail to find plays where the blocking was so bad Walter Payton would’ve been snowed
under. But there are also plenty of times Elliott gets room, gets clear, gets in the open…and maybe he
doesn’t quite look the same. His calling card is supposed to be speed and shiftiness with power. He
still looked good. He just didn’t quite have the same oomph. I felt like I was watching Kareem Hunt
in silver and blue. (In a lot of cases that’s a compliment, but not in Zeke’s.) Who knows: it’s possible
I’m seeing things, and Elliott will go right back to superstardom. It’s possible the COVID season didn’t
let him prep right. It’s possible Dak’s return and the o-line playing better clears everything up. But it’s
also possible Pyper’s right, and someone who’s been used this much has already seen his career peak
unnaturally early.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
Oh, I’m real nervous about Elliott this year. I admit it: after last season, I can’t tell
if he’s good anymore. I assume he’s going to be a first-round fantasy pick in most
leagues, but he’s very polarizing, because after a few years where he seemed like
the safest guy around, now it feels like you really don’t know what you’re getting. It’s
like my Bahamas vacation I went on this summer. On paper, on Instagram, it really
looks like a wonderful place: gorgeous blue seas, white sands. And then I get there,
and it’s just Las Vegas on the ocean, but double the price. Two vodka cranberries?
$42 after tax and tip. These Zeke Elliott game logs: 18-for-51, 19-for-63, 12-for-54…are
they all Andy Dalton’s fault? Maybe reality no longer matches the brochure. I’ll tell
you one thing: he’s gonna be an early panic button this year. Week 1 against Tampa
Bay, everyone’s watching, if he comes out and poops the bed with 17-for-50, people
are gonna be messaging me on Twitter saying, ‘He didn’t look right, should I just drop
him?’”
9. JOE MIXON CIN
Pod nickname:
Le’Veon Jr.
Age: 25 • 6’1” • 220 lbs • Injury: 12
2020 Stats:
428 Rush YD • 21 Rec • 138 Rec YD • 4 TD • 3 Big Runs • 47 Snaps/G • 20 Routes/G
6 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: A- • Receiving: B • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 6
’20 Final Rank: 49
’21 Ranks Range: 4-15
Does any song capture the feelings of the Joe Mixon believer circa 2021 than the Yeah Yeah Yeahs
singing “Maps”? “Wait, they don’t love you like I love you. Wait, they don’t love you like I love you.”
Well, okay, maybe these days Broken Social Scene has it better: “It’s a shoreline / It’s high speed / It’s a
cruel world.”
Damn. When he’s right, Mixon just looks different. I admit that—and will momentarily flagellate myself
about—the awesome qualities we see on film haven’t fully manifested into an actual great season yet. But
I can’t help it…even in his six relatively low-impact games in ’20 before suffering a mystery foot injury
that cost him the remainder of the season, there are so many times when you can’t believe a 220-pound
guy can wait like that, hop like that, explode like that. Calling someone “Le’Veon Junior” has suddenly
turned into much less of a commendation, but stylistically they’re so similar. Mixon still really does
exhibit the talent to be the overall RB1.
But we’re four years in and I’m running out of excuses. Mixon got a truly massive workload in the first
month-and-a-half of Joe Burrow’s NFL career: his 140 touches were most in the league, he’d played the
second-most snaps behind only Zeke Elliott, he’d run six more routes per game and caught two more
passes per game than in ’19…yet the elite stats weren’t there. Sure, yes, finally he exploded in Week 4
against the Jags with an incredibly physical receiving touchdown and a bunch of lightning-acceleration
runs to make you drool. But his status as fantasy’s RB9 after six weeks was based mostly on that one
day. And then came the foot problem, and Zac Taylor telling us how close Mixon was to returning for
three months. He never came back.
Even I, who could probably make a convincing claim to a cabinet-level position in the Joe Mixon Fan
Club, can’t justify him as a first-round pick this year. Provided Burrow returns well from his torn ACL,
things are looking up for the Bengals. You can see the makings of a high-octane offense and Mixon is
the best running back on the roster. But what if there’s just something missing? What if he’s always
destined to tease but never quite deliver? For all the skill and power I think I see, dude’s never had
double-digit TDs, he’s never challenged for a rushing title, and he’s never elevated his team the way
other guys ahead of him on this last have done. I really do believe it’s there. But as those melancholic
throwbacks the Decembrists remind us: “We’re not so starry-eyed anymore.”
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Please tell me there’s hope for a fifth-year explosion
from Mixon?
Okay, what we’re looking for is some hope via historical precedent. Plenty of running backs
have posted awesome fantasy seasons in the fifth years of their NFL careers. We want the dudes
whose results maybe weren’t so spectacular the four seasons prior. For this exercise, I used Joe
Mixon’s best fantasy finish to date—ninth, in 2018—as the threshold. Since ’01, here are absolute
best Year 5 fantasy finishes of RBs who hadn’t previously finished higher than ninth at the
position:
Player
Priest Holmes
Michael Turner
Marshawn Lynch
Knowshon Moreno
Brian Westbrook
LaMont Jordan
5th Season
2001
2008
2011
2013
2006
2005
Fantasy Finish
2nd
2nd
5th
5th
6th
8th
Previous Best Fantasy Finish
15th
50th
12th
17th
10th
43rd
Um, it’s not a huge list! Plus there are obvious extenuating circumstances with the most
attractive names here. Holmes was nicked-up, oft-ignored and then supplanted by Jamal Lewis
in Baltimore, and only broke loose when he moved to Kansas City in ’01. Turner sat four seasons
behind LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, then exploded upon moving to Atlanta in ’08. And
Lynch had a couple promising (dare I say Mixon-esque) years in Buffalo before falling out of
favor then becoming Beast Mode in his first full season after a trade to Seattle. But dangit, you
know what I take from this list? IT’S POSSIBLE!
10. JONATHAN TAYLOR IND
Age: 22 • 5’10” • 226 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
1,169 Rush YD • 36 Rec • 299 Rec YD • 12 TD • 7 Big Runs • 32 Snaps/G • 13 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 10 STD/11 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: A- • Receiving: B- • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 20
’20 Final Rank: 4
’21 Ranks Range: 5-14
You know when I compare a prospect to Nick Chubb, I’m excited by that prospect! I enjoyed being able
to take advantage of 2020’s too-cute draft chatter, and select Taylor in the third and sometimes fourth
round of fantasy drafts. Didn’t you hear? The fact that he was an incredibly successful and durable
collegiate running back was a bad thing.
(There’s simply a subset of NFL nerds who’ve decided any investment in any running back at any level
is stupid: drafting them, paying them decent contracts…and it’s such a straw-man argument, because
nobody’s out here saying RBs are anywhere close to as important as QBs and nobody’s out here saying
you can’t win a Super Bowl without an elite RB. We’re just saying there are times, when it’s the right
player, that a big-time RB can help the cause. Or would you rather just sniff your own farts and draft
Mitch Trubisky all over again?)
Anyway, partway through the season, even the fourth round didn’t look like good value for Taylor! Even
after Marlon Mack’s season-long injury, the Colts were loath to commit to him. He’d struggle for a half
and Jordan Wilkins would get work. He’d fumble and get benched and Frank Reich would say he hurt
his ankle, when we could see it wasn’t true. Taylor inspired serious existential angst, so much so that he
was the subject of my first Film Futures of ’20, in early November, and in assessing his rookie film to
that point, I invoked the “T-word,” as in “Turkey Mayo.” Big fast kid who can’t get out of his own way,
who definitely has good acceleration and size and long speed and power but just doesn’t seem to have
instincts, kind of like Tevin Coleman? It was a nervous-making time. At that exact moment, Taylor was
RB18.
Fortunately, Taylor came out of it. He was so strong (and the rest of the field so weak) that he’d go on
to finish RB4 for the season. And the legion of people who hated him through two-and-a-half months
last year are probably going to yell at me all August for not ranking him higher. In scoring seven TDs
in his final four games, in trusting his vision more, in going hog-wild in the Week 17 finale against
Jacksonville for 253 yards, did Taylor remind me of Chubb? Maybe not quite yet. Instead I thought of
prime DeMarco Murray. (I mean that as praise: Murray had a 2,200-scrimmage-yard season.) Big and
fast, terrific power and acceleration, tons to love about him when things are cranking correctly and
there’s space for him to run…but maybe not quite a creator, maybe not the most laterally agile, maybe
a few too many unnecessary cuts in open space. To be 100% convinced there are absolutely no hurdles
for Taylor this year is to ignore a whole lot of what happened last year. And, of course, the Colts have
been a complete mess in August. Taylor lost Carson Wentz as his starting quarterback for all
of camp and possibly multiple regular-season games. All-world guard Quenton Nelson will also
miss camp with foot surgery. You’ll hear knuckleheads telling you Wentz’s absence means good
things for Taylor because it means Indy will run even more. That’s a crutch argument. Worse
offenses are usually worse for everyone. I lowered Taylor a spot among RBs in the August 13
ranks, and I don’t see how he’s in the first-round conversation anymore. Yes, Wentz and Nelson
could make it back for Week 1 and everything could turn out fine, but we have to consider that
nobody had much practice time together. There’s a bit more risk than there was before.
11. JOSH JACOBS LV
Pod nickname:
Jacked Gerbil
Age: 23 • 5’10” • 220 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
1,065 Rush YD • 33 Rec • 238 Rec YD • 12 TD • 3 Big Runs • 39 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 7 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/10 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • Power: A- • Receiving: B- • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 7
’20 Final Rank: 8
’21 Ranks Range: 6-14
I hope you don’t expect objectivity when it comes to my son.
But I’m sorry if the prime objection to selecting Josh Jacobs as an RB1 is Kenyan Drake? Knowing what
we know about everything that makes Kenyan Drake Kenyan Drake? I mean, let’s make sure we continue
to admire the Jacked Gerbil’s game film, but if he’s still a zigzaggy power back with oomph, I say this is
an opportunity to draft for value.
And he is! Jacobs didn’t have a superstar breakout season as a sophomore, but he still submits a couple
runs every week you want to rewind and watch again. For those who have GamePass: Week 1, Q2
4:37, a bounce outside, a stutter-step to accelerate around the edge, lowers his helmet to break a tackle,
12 yards. Week 5, Q4 14:21, subtle visual adjustment to skate through a red-zone hole then powers
through two DBs. Week 10, Q3 13:27, middle linebacker standing in the hole, incredibly quick slidestep left, outruns one guy to the corner, cuts in front of another, 13 yards. Week 15, Q1 5:08, the hole
is stuffed, Jacobs adjusts to the outside, slips between defenders, 20 yards. I won’t tell you Jacobs is the
best running back in the league, but as a combo of low-to-the-ground shiftiness, acceleration and power,
he might be unmatched.
So okay, the Drake signing sends up a red flag about whether the Raiders view Jacobs as a “three-down
back.” But man, even if Kenyan Drake can make it through a full season without losing his cleats or
accidentally locking himself in a freighter to Brazil, do we care? Jacobs played 60 third-down snaps
all season in 2020! That’s not very many! The Raiders already didn’t view Josh Jacobs as a third-down
back, which is a bummer, but he still locked up an obvious RB1 spot all year! So let’s give Drake 50
catches. It limits Jacobs’s star appeal in PPR, but I can’t see a world where it causes a healthy Jacobs to
curb his ball-carrying workload. He’s just too good. Neither do I buy that Jacobs is somehow due a TD
regression. He’s got that crouched cutback thing in a 220-pound body…he’s maybe not made to score
bunnies the way Derrick Henry is, but through two seasons he’s got 25 touches inside the 3 and has
scored nine times. That’s really good! Let’s keep an eye on the DUI he got at the Vegas airport back in
January (he and I had a stern talk over the family dinner table), but otherwise: I’m letting the market
fret and taking the Gerbil in the second or even third round.
12. ANTONIO GIBSON WAS
Age: 23 • 6’2” • 220 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
795 Rush YD • 36 Rec • 247 Rec YD • 11 TD • 5 Big Runs • 28 Snaps/G • 11 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: C • Power: A- • Receiving: B? • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 44
’20 Final Rank: 14
’21 Ranks Range: 8-20
Well, he’s not Cordarrelle Patterson.
That was the downside worry when Washington selected Gibson in the third round last spring.
Essentially a wide receiver who had 33 career collegiate running back carries, Gibson had that weird
Memphis stench on him: the thing that gets everyone revved up about Tony Pollard and Darrell
Henderson and Anthony Miller, only to see them settle into niche NFL roles. (It might be the
barbecue.) And boy howdy, harder to find a comp who screams “niche” more than goofball Cordarrelle.
In 2020, the talented Derrius Guice proved too slimy even for the NFL—a pretty low bar!—and Bryce
Love’s long-destroyed knee never healed. That gave Gibson a pretty clear lane, and I have to say: his
RB14 finish is misleading. He probably didn’t show out quite at that level. At various times, Peyton
Barber was stealing short TDs (that didn’t last) and J.D. McKissic became a locked-in PPR monster
(that did)…and Gibson himself was slow to impress. McKissic occasionally ran with more pop than
Gibson, he was always more trusted in pass protection, and he usually showed more nuance as a carrier.
Especially early in the year, Gibson’s main move was something I like to call “The Tasmanian Devil.”
You couldn’t really call zone plays for him, because four microseconds after the snap he’d already turned
himself into a cartoon tornado and was running as fast as he could, looking to blow a hole in a cartoon
mesa.
Later in the year, I thought the Football Team intentionally ran power plays with pulling guards and
tackles in effort to slow Gibson down by giving him a fat guy to follow. It worked pretty well! Give
him a clean read and a decent lane, and you’ll see Gibson is an impressive athlete. Tall, big, strong and
not great wiggle, but a fine ability to make a single move and get going fast. Fast! Like, watch him get
squared up Week 11 against the Bengals on a pair of runs around the edge, and you can understand
how terrifying a person of these dimensions can be when he’s the windshield and you’re a bug. For
a former wideout, he didn’t run many routes, and maybe that changes in ’21, but it doesn’t have to.
We’re not ranking him anything like an elite fantasy weapon. That’s as it should be…his rookie year was
incomplete. But if Year 2 sees Gibson develop better patience, he could make it a lot harder for his team
to use other RBs.
13. J.K. DOBBINS BAL
Age: 23 • 5’10” • 212 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
805 Rush YD • 18 Rec • 120 Rec YD • 9 TD • 8 Big Runs • 29 Snaps/G • 12 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: A- • Power: B- • Receiving: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 30
’20 Final Rank: 17
’21 Ranks Range: 8-24
And if you’re feeling incomplete
The line is stretching up the street
—Michael Penn
If you’d told me that Dobbins, who I thought deserved favorable comparisons to Ray Rice last summer,
would get thrown into a backfield with two gravy-booted putt-putt golfers for basically his entire rookie
year, I sure as heck would’ve expected better than RB17. But from Week 1 forward, John Harbaugh
seemed to be spinning a wheel. If the clicker landed on you, congrats, you’re in there. If it didn’t, come
and stand over here next to the ghost of Le’Ron McClain. (What’s that? I’m being told Le’Ron McClain
is, as of publication date, very much alive and not a ghost. Our apologies to the McClain family.)
Mark Ingram, such a fantasy hero two seasons ago, had obviously lost something by 2020. Whatever
that something was, Gus Edwards never had it. There would be weeks where Dobbins would
dramatically out-snap the others, play fine, and then disappear the very next game. When Ingram finally
fell out of favor in mid-November, freaking Justice Hill started getting snaps. When by definition your
range of opportunities will be narrowed because your quarterback is the greatest rusher the position has
ever known, boy, it sure would be cool to at least believe some strong RB play would earn your coach’s
favor. Edwards is nothing special as a player—I’m sure he’s a lovely person—but Dobbins absolutely
couldn’t shake him.
Ranking Dobbins here is, I think, a nice hedge against the market, which may just assume ’21 will be a
repeat of ’20. But if you’re taking bets on potential changes, I think you’d hope the super-fast dude, the
quick dude, the surprisingly sturdy dude (for his size) who’s only entering his second year would have
a chance to grab more workload. In theory it’s true that even a pure starting RB who’s Lamar Jackson’s
little buddy has his fantasy upside capped, but just remember that Ingram finished as the RB8 in ’19.
Harbaugh may once again try the mess-around with Edwards (Ingram has moved on…I didn’t mean
it like that...he’s not dead, he’s just in Houston!), but given Dobbins’s explosive acceleration, this time
there’s a pretty good chance the coach won’t get away with it. As Michael Penn also sang, “I will wait
for heaven if you’ll be there.” (But everyone’s alive! Let me clarify: everyone involved here’s still alive!)
14. NAJEE HARRIS PIT
Age: 23 • 6’2” • 229 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Steven Jackson
’20 Ranks Range: 10-20 • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüü
What if Kalen Ballage could play? What if D’Onta Foreman had known which way to go? What if Karlos
Williams hadn’t inhaled backwards? We’ve heard the siren’s song of the big guy who can run fast plenty
of times. They don’t all turn out to be Steven Jackson.
But Harris (no relation) has a real chance. I snickered when people tried to make his former Alabama
teammate Damien Harris (also no relation) a thing. He wasn’t the one we were waiting for. But this kid
has a chance to be terrific. I know the Steelers depth chart is littered with dudes that Fantasy Hipster
Twitter has tried to sell you for years (“…trust me guys, Benny Snell is good!” “…Anthony McFarland,
real sleeper there” “...oh, s***, this is where Ballage wound up?”) but they’re all J.A.G.s, which will be a
reason a bunch of people are on Najee for 2021. True, it doesn’t hurt that nobody else there can play.
But I wouldn’t put Harris this high if I didn’t think his skills will justify the big workloads others are
assuming.
Let’s not automatically launch Harris into the land of 2,300-scrimmage-yard seasons like S-Jax. He
comes to the NFL needing refinement in a few areas: pass protection, vision in short yardage, too many
spin moves. (For a 229-pound guy, he can press the hole and bounce it decently well…he just doesn’t
do it enough, and the pros don’t let you hesitate like he could when he was playing for the best team
in college football.) Let’s not sell him to you as “quick twitch.” Harris is a little like his fellow Alabama
alumnus Derrick Henry in his build-up speed: we’ll get some big plays, but they’ll rarely come because
of some wild maneuvering he did near the line. He’ll need room, and any Pittsburgh fan will tell you
the Steelers o-line in ’20 sure didn’t look like the Le’Veon Bell days. However, one striking difference
between Harris and Henry is that Najee is an accomplished receiver, and not just on wide-open screens.
He can track the ball and catch it over his shoulder in ways that Henry can’t, but Steven Jackson could.
What else could go wrong in his rookie year? Well, I could simply be wrong. Sometimes Alabama players
look better than they turn out to be. Maximum touches are nobody’s birthright. If Harris isn’t ready to
pass protect, or if he struggles in short yardage despite his size, or if he turns the ball over, the Steelers
will find someone else to play. That’s the way it works, despite all the talk you’ll hear about first-round
draft capital. I don’t think Harris is destined to be considered a top-five RB over the course of his
career. But in a year when a lot of RB2s make you nervous, Najee’s payout could at least be S-Jax-lite.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
What kind of workload is “guaranteed” for first-round
running backs?
It would be dumb to say “none.” First of all, RBs taken in the first round of an NFL Draft are
presumably good players, and in a quasi-rational world good players play. Also, I’m not trying to
tell you the concept of draft capital isn’t a thing. Of course a first-round pick gets more chances
than a sixth-rounder: executives and coaches like to look smart, and wasted first-rounders look
bad on the résumé. But folks who invoke the dreaded term “draft capital” don’t do subtlety.
They are here to tell you that a high draft pick is going to play right away, and they’re sure of it,
and sometimes they are wrong:
Player
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Josh Jacobs
Saquon Barkley
Rashaad Penny
Sony Michel
Leonard Fournette
Christian McCaffrey
Ezekiel Elliott
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Draft Year
2020
2019
2018
2018
2018
2017
2017
2016
2015
2015
Total Touches
217
262
352
94
216
314
197
354
250
217
Fantasy Finish
22nd
14th
2nd
N/A
25th
8th
15th
2nd
5th
N/A
There are some great rookie seasons here, from players we really like. There are also some
stinkers. And don’t tell me it’s only about injury! Rashaad Penny and Melvin Gordon both played
in 14 games. Christian McCaffrey played in 16. I’d like Najee Harris to work out in 2021. I feel like
I’m ranking him optimistically. But “they used a first-round pick on him” is not a much more
compelling rationale than “who else is there.” What matters most is how ready the player is.
15. AUSTIN EKELER LAC
Age: 26 • 5’10” • 200 lbs • Injury: 8
2020 Stats:
530 Rush YD • 54 Rec • 403 Rec YD • 3 TD • 2 Big Runs • 40 Snaps/G • 23 Routes/G
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: B • Power: C- • Receiving: A • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Pod nickname:
Tiny Bones West
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 12
’20 Final Rank: 35
’21 Ranks Range: 10-20
I like a band called Oso Oso. You should check them out! Anyway, they have a lyric that goes: “Never
thought twice / No, I never thought at all / Always coming up short / ’Cause you’re dreaming so small.”
Which makes me wonder: do you think Austin Ekeler has dreams in which he weighs 225 pounds and
scares the bejeezus out of defensive players?
I’m not going to pound the table about how the tiny bones fared in 2020. Lots of running backs got
hurt, and not all of them were small guys their teams tried to make into featured guys. And in fact,
we’re told by people invested in such things that there’s no correlation between an RB’s size and injury
proclivity. They’ve got spreadsheets to prove it! To that, I say: ha! If you could prove that RBs were used
exactly the same heedless of size and then show me that injury rates are the same, I’d listen. But there’s
a reason guys like Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey haven’t usually been feature backs. Players their size
often don’t hold up when subjected to big-boned-style plays, so on average they just run way fewer of
them.
That said, there are exceptions. CMC himself looks like one. Warrick Dunn, Ray Rice, Charlie Garner…
even in this leviathan millennium of pro football, we can find guys who were shifty and clever enough
to dance between the raindrops and produce big workloads year after year. Ekeler may post jacked Insta
photos, but he’s small. He runs tough but he doesn’t move piles. He’s fast. He’s quick. He dances behind
the line probably a little too much, and we’ll see how much that frustrates new offensive coordinator Joe
Lombardi, who’s spent several seasons with Alvin Kamara’s incredible and incredibly direct quicks.
But in theory, it’s an amazing fit. We know Ekeler’s best stuff comes in open space. He’s a screen guy,
but also an absolutely brutal matchup running routes out of the backfield against linebackers and
safeties. Ekeler was already a danger to tickle 100 receptions with Anthony Lynn and Ken Whisenhunt
in charge. If he stays healthy in ’21—a badly torn hamstring cost him six games and rendered him gimpy
toward the end of last year, and gee, I wonder if there’s anything a smaller player who posts outrageous
weightlifting videos might put into his body that could result in a badly torn hamstring—he’s probably
got a better-than-even chance of getting there. And while he’s probably a terrible bet to convert a bunch
of inside-the-5 carries into touchdowns, Ekeler is one of the league’s RBs you most want catching the
ball anywhere in the end zone’s vicinity. (Remember: he had eight receiving TDs in ’19.) Let Josh Kelley
or Justin Jackson or rookie Larry Rountree have more carries. It’s fine. Let’s get Ekeler 200 high-value
touches, and he’ll deliver an RB2 season in standard and better than that in PPR.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I can’t do this little ball of averageness again. I don’t think he’s a special talent. As
long as he’s on the field, okay, PPR you’re gonna love him, standard you’ll probably
be okay with him. But if anyone has the slightest bit of worry about McCaffrey, they
should be freaking out about Ekeler, because Ekeler isn’t nearly as good. He’s the
imitation product. You buy it knowing it’ll break down. It’s like…every summer I buy a
pair of cheap sunglasses. Good for a couple months, does the trick, breaks down, and
you wind up wondering why you didn’t get the name brand. I’ll ask the readers: if I
set the over/under on Ekeler’s games played this year at 12.5, wouldn’t you definitely
take the under? I’d definitely take the under. I know from experience, my knockoff
sunglasses don’t last that long.”
16. CHRIS CARSON SEA
Pod nickname:
Pocket Fives
Age: 27 • 5’11” • 222 lbs • Injury: 7
2020 Stats:
681 Rush YD • 37 Rec • 287 Rec YD • 9 TD • 3 Big Runs • 32 Snaps/G • 16 Routes/G
12 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 7 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C- • Power: A • Receiving: B- • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 22
’20 Final Rank: 16
’21 Ranks Range: 14-24
Who’s that over there? What him? Oh, don’t worry about him. That’s just Old Man Carson.
Doesn’t it seem like this poor dude has seen it all? He’s still only 27! But dang, his body has aged like
Mickey Rourke. Poor guy tore an ACL in high school, broke a thumb in college, and in the NFL has
fractured a hip, broken an ankle, and last year missed a month with a foot sprain. In the past three
seasons combined, Carson is top 10 in rushing yards, but struck out in free agency presumably because
of missed time. He returned to Seattle for $5.5 million guaranteed and the Seahawks aren’t on the hook
for much money beyond 2021, which is good, because at that point it’s possible all that’ll be left of him
is a shinbone and some dental tartar.
It’s hard not to root for Carson. He’s not that talented, but man does he ever grind. The year Seattle
drafted Rashaad Penny in the first round, they clearly planned a transition. But Carson wasn’t having
it. He was a contact-seeking missile. It feels like he limps off the field after a big hit every other game,
but he’s usually right back out there to do it again. He’s on the axis that includes guys like David
Montgomery and James Robinson—blood-and-guts types whose skill is surviving 20+ car crashes per
week—and yet Carson seems to squeeze even a little more out of himself than those dudes. A cynical oaf
like me is reluctant to call it heart. But maybe that’s what it is.
The weeks he’s healthy, Carson is a fantasy start. We’ll have to see Penny before we believe in him, and
if the likes of DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer were threats, they’d have beaten out a 74-year-old (and
Jacksonville-bound) Carlos Hyde for looks in Carson’s injury-related absence. It’s cool to know after
two seasons of intense fumbling, Carson only dropped one all ’20 (and didn’t lose it) and Hyde being
gone once again makes Carson a favorite should the goal-line battering ram be needed. Investing longterm in this slow, unidirectional banger seems about as wise as betting on Mickey Rourke’s next plastic
surgery procedure. But for ’21 Carson is locked in as your RB2...and the trainer’s table.
17. CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE KC
Pod nickname:
The Cajun Lawyer
Age: 22 • 5’8” • 209 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
803 Rush YD • 36 Rec • 297 Rec YD • 5 TD • 3 Big Runs • 40 Snaps/G • 21 Routes/G
13 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 7 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: C- • Receiving: B • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 11
’20 Final Rank: 22
’21 Ranks Range: 10-26
“Now, Mister Heeeeeeeelaire, I may not be one o’ them fancy city lawyers. But wouldn’t you agree that
even down by the bayou, eatin’ gumbo and crawdads, the neighborhood folks say yo’ rookie season
simply wadn’t very good?”
On the podcast, we had more giggles with Clyde Edwards-Helaire than maybe any other player in 2020.
My Inebriated James Carville voice became the subject of several mixtapes, and it was never not amusing
to hear guests react when I’d straight-facedly call CEH “The Cajun Lawyer” in casual conversation. It
all dates back, of course, to the weird pronunciation Steve Levy gave Edwards-Helaire’s last name on
Opening Night. Ah. We have fun.
But it wasn’t that much fun to draft CEH in the first round.
It’s an object lesson on reaching for situation when you’re not sure the player is worth it. There was so
much dot connecting when it came to Edwards-Helaire last August, the Chiefs could’ve put out a kids’
book. He was perfect for Andy Reid. He was perfect for Pat Mahomes. He was coming in and catching
100 passes, no question! His ADP got up to NINTH overall! That was frankly a pretty easy mistake to
avoid: the result of wish-casting by dimmer bulbs in the fantasy industry. But let’s not let ourselves
off the hook. Even as I scoffed at the price tag, I understood the logic and worried I might miss out
on some league-altering stats, because in my estimation CEH was a strong prospect. Not my favorite
running back in the Class of 2020, but strong.
And he kind of cratered. Week 1? Awesome: 25/138/1. The entire reason of the season? 156/665/3.
And he only caught 36 balls! Chris Carson and Devin Singletary had more receptions! And here’s
another thing: all last summer, I made this big comparison, right? Edwards-Helaire and Singletary are so
similar! I said it a dozen times! They’re so similar!
Unfortunately I might be right!
We wanted them both to be tiny-boned RBs who could find a way to be a feature back. And let’s just
say it hasn’t worked out yet for either little dude. In college CEH looked tough to tackle? It sure didn’t
seem that way in the NFL. He got nine carries inside the 5 last year. He scored a TD on one of them.
The Chiefs realized partway through the year they needed someone else and acquired the rotted husk of
Le’Veon Bell. CEH was still the starter, in a rotation…he just wasn’t very good.
It was one season. Edwards-Helaire looked shifty, he had a few impressive broken-field runs. Plus
he missed the season’s final two games and a playoff round because of an injured hip. It’s absolutely
possible we’ll see the “real” CEH in his second year, and he’ll come at a more reasonable price. But there
are enough “other guys” around that Chiefs backfield that I doubt we’re headed for a 300-touch season.
18. DAVID MONTGOMERY CHI
Pod nickname:
Middle Management
Age: 24 • 5’10” • 222 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
1,070 Rush YD • 54 Rec • 438 Rec YD • 10 TD • 5 Big Runs • 49 Snaps/G • 24 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 7 STD/7 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 10 STD/11 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C • Power: A- • Receiving: C+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 31
’20 Final Rank: 6
’21 Ranks Range: 14-24
In another universe, you and I could embrace fraternally, chuck each other under the chin, and
celebrate the try-hard nature of David Montgomery. He’s the kind of dude we should be rooting for. An
unremarkable athlete by NFL standards who works his butt off and gets drilled by straight-shot tackles
a couple hundred times a year, gets up again, and drags his quarterback-free team into the playoffs?
That’s legendary stuff. Good for him!
Unfortunately, Fantasy Nation is about to stare at Montgomery’s #6 finish in standard-league RB fantasy
points, and suffer worse collective head trauma than when everyone decided Crash was a good movie.
Don’t you all remember? Don’t you remember the venom Montgomery manufactured for two-and-a-half
months among the unlucky souls who drafted him? Through Week 11, Monty was RB27!!! He was stuck
on 427 rushing yards and two TDs!!! If you truly believe deep in your soul that in the 2020 season’s
final six games—25 contests into his career—David Montgomery met an old lady down by the magicsaturated shores of Lake Michigan who granted him his wish to become Jamaal Charles…I guess that’s
one explanation for vaulting 21 fantasy spots in 34 days. The other explanation is: a first-carry-of-thegame, wide-open 57-yard run in Week 12, a first-carry-of-the-game wide-open 80-yard TD run in Week
14, a couple goal-line plunges, and an incredible 77 carries in Chicago’s final three contests. We got 11
weeks of Twitter jokes about Montgomery having less success changing direction than the John Birch
Society. You can’t ignore the better performances that saved his season, but you also can’t assume it will
ever be thus.
We’ve seen this movie before in this exact uniform. Jordan Howard patrolled Solider Field for three
years of declining returns. Sunlight—and not box scores—tends to reveal who these bruisers are. It’s
not that they don’t deserve the uniform. What they do is really difficult. But Montgomery doesn’t
have the Charles-ian talent to create fairytales on his own. He needs a malfunctioning QB and a coach
unconcerned with treating him like a rented mule. I guess it’s possible Justin Fields winning the job
under center for ’21 could take some wind out of Monty’s draft-day sails and make his price more
reasonable. If we could view him like we view, say, Chris Carson (whose play his resembles), there’d be
no agita. He’d be a violence-tinged low-level RB2 with a high injury coefficient, and we’d accept him on
those terms. Paying more than that is asking for the monkey’s paw finger to curl your way.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I have Montgomery at RB19 in standard and I’ll be honest: I want him lower. This feels
like the ultimate in ‘I’m taking Montgomery, because who else is there in the Bears
backfield?’ If he does another 300 touches, I guess I’ll just slap you five. He’s almost
definitely not winding up on any of my teams. But you know what I really wanted to
say here? I was trying to think of Bears running backs Montgomery reminds me of.
And I thought, oh, yeah, for sure, he’s like that guy who played for them just a couple
years ago…Anthony Thomas! Bigger back, had some success but it went away real fast
because he wasn’t actually good at football. And then I look Anthony Thomas up on
Pro Football Reference, and realize he was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2001!
That’s how you know you’re getting old. Someone who put up numbers twenty years
ago and you’re sure it happened yesterday.”
19. JAMES ROBINSON JAC
Age: 23 • 5’10” • 225 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
1,070 Rush YD • 49 Rec • 344 Rec YD • 10 TD • 5 Big Runs • 44 Snaps/G • 18 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 7 STD/7 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 11 STD/12 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: D • Elusiveness: C • Power: A+ • Receiving: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 7
’21 Ranks Range: 20-32
James Robinson simply plays like one of the strongest running backs in the league. Maybe the strongest,
Derrick Henry included. Going back to refresh myself on his game film, I couldn’t believe how many
runs he finished off by nearly ending some dumb defender. If you’d like to see a few: Week 1 Q2 12:13,
Week 3 Q3 0:58, Week 7 Q2 3:52…his contact balance is incredible and he fits the cliché of the big
dude who delivers contact rather than accepting it.
And it turns out he ain’t going away.
Robinson became the first ever undrafted rookie to start at RB in Week 1, and set the NFL record
for most scrimmage yards by an UDFA rookie. The dude he reminds me of most is Jeremy Hill, the
ol’ Hippo On Roller Skates: a crusher with amazing leg strength but without amazing speed or in-run
quickness. Robinson labors when he gets stuffed and has to adjust to the outside, usually getting caught
before he can get square. And when he breaks in the clear, he’s usually getting run down from behind.
Rookie Travis Etienne would’ve been a more exciting prospect, but he hurt his foot in Week 2 of
the preseason and will miss the entire 2021 campaign. Last year Robinson finished top 10 in
RB snaps per game and top five in RB touches per game. Even with Etienne gone—RIP Steve!—
it’s difficult to imagine the Jags doing that to Robinson again. It’s a hard life! But neither is
Robinson a candidate for my bust list any longer. If Carlos Hyde is really the only thing standing
between Robinson and a big workload, that sounds pretty good. I’d be concerned even a strong
dude like Robinson won’t hold up to the pounding he took during his 289 touches in ’20, so
Hyde probably legitimately does become draftable until and if Jacksonville signs another back.
But it sure now looks like Robinson is the one you want.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Did James Robinson just produce the greatest UDFA
season ever?
No. What? Stop. Among undrafted rookies? Robinson’s 2020 season was among the best we’ve
seen this millennium:
Player
James Robinson
Dominic Rhodes
Phillip Lindsay
Rob Kelley
LeGarrette Blount
Thomas Rawls
Team
JAC
IND
DEN
WAS
TB
SEA
Year
2020
2001
2018
2016
2010
2015
Scrimmage Yards
1,414
1,328
1,278
786
1,021
906
Fantasy Finish
7th
12th
12th
26th
27th
28th
But there have been a bunch of pretty amazing UDFA RBs just in the past 20 years! Guys
who almost certainly stood the test of time better than Mr. Robinson will. I could’ve
included multiple seasons by two of these guys, but just to get more names on the list, I
took each undrafted RB’s best season:
Player
Priest Holmes
Arian Foster
Willie Parker
Austin Ekeler
LeGarrette Blount
Team
KC
HOU
PIT
LAC
NE
Year
2002
2010
2006
2019
2016
Scrimmage Yards
2,287
2,220
1,716
1,550
1,021
Fantasy Finish
1st
1st
5th
7th
7th
It should be noted that Holmes finished first one other time and also had a second, while
Foster had three other top fives. Still, it’s a feather in the Jaguars’ and Robinson’s cap to
produce like that when few people have even heard of you.
20. MILES SANDERS PHI
Age: 24 • 5’11” • 211 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
867 Rush YD • 28 Rec • 197 Rec YD • 6 TD • 4 Big Runs • 48 Snaps/G • 23 Routes/G
12 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 7 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: C+ • Receiving: B • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 17
’20 Final Rank: 21
’21 Ranks Range: 12-28
I’ll be eating dirt on Derrick Henry for the next decade, but sometimes I steer you right.
Man, were people shouting from the rooftops about Miles Sanders the past couple years, or what? In
2020, on average the kid was taken #12 overall! Maybe because of the guy who preceded him at Penn
State, there’s always been this weird undercurrent around Sanders that he’s this close to turning into
Saquon Barkley. Buddy, I have to tell you: Zooropa is no Achtung ! Baby, Speed 2 is no Speed, and nobody
can follow the eternal grace of Trevor Noah. ( Just kidding: he’s terrible.)
We’re past the point where Miles Sanders will be considered a first-round pick or a future superstar.
My Tevin Coleman comparisons have so far come eerily true. Nobody can watch Sanders on film and
miss his speed: he’s got some of the best running back wheels in the game. There are times when he’s
patient and sets up his blocks with good vision and then busts it and you’re pumped. But for someone
so fast he gets stuffed more than he should, he’ll flash hands problems, and he got hurt: a hamstring cost
him Week 1 and a knee injury took him out for a couple midseason games (he was fine in Week 17…
the Eagles were tanking). As Philly flopped around looking for answers during their disastrous season,
Boston Scott got more run than we’re comfortable with and Corey Clement swooped in for vulture
carries a couple times.
However, it’s also true that Sanders made a few big plays once Jalen Hurts took over, including a Week
14 read-option handoff where he got loose, accelerated and made Malcolm Jenkins of the Saints look
real bad trying to tackle him. Sanders is too fast to give you nothing, and now that he’ll be priced
reasonably, the value proposition maybe starts to invert: you’re only paying for an RB2, maybe in the
fourth round? Well, now those feast-or-famine weeks don’t sting so much. The Eagles took a crack at
Kerryon Johnson this winter plus drafted Kenneth Gainwell, so they, too, seem to be “over” the idea
that Sanders is all-world. (If Kerryon is healthy, who knows, maybe he’s the one to gamble on in a much
later round.) But sure: if I’m taking bets on which Philly back takes advantage if Hurts is ready to lead a
resurgence, it’s Sanders.
21. D’ANDRE SWIFT DET
Age: 22 • 5’8” • 212 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
521 Rush YD • 46 Rec • 357 Rec YD • 10 TD • 1 Big Run • 28 Snaps/G • 16 Routes/G
13 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • Power: C • Receiving: A- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 25
’20 Final Rank: 20
’21 Ranks Range: 10-24
The argument that “the Lions are going to suck!” shouldn’t be a reason to avoid D’Andre Swift. First off:
you don’t actually know they’ll suck. You think you do. That’s why people who run Vegas are rich and
you’re not. And second off: James Robinson was just RB7 on a one-win team. In 2019, Joe Mixon was
RB11 on a two-win team. In ’18, David Johnson was RB10 on a three-win team. Not every worst team
in the NFL winds up featuring a pure starting fantasy running back. But the last three have!
No, the main consideration here is whether Swift is good enough to take advantage of whatever
situation the Lions present him with in ’21. I like his rookie tape. It’s appreciably better than anything
new stablemate Jamaal Williams has ever laid down. But I don’t love it. Swift is a glider, as in: he tends
to take the handoff and kind of look around. One step, two steps, kind of looking for an excuse to
change directions. Often that change of direction is terrific. He can string together multiple cuts that
are impressive, and if the Lions get better on the o-line (and to be honest, the line wasn’t horrible run
blocking in ’20), big plays might ensue. But they didn’t last year. Only one of his 114 carries went for
20+ yards. I chalk some of that up to Swift’s own hesitance, and maybe an overconfidence that he can
pick and choose when to hit it hard in the NFL.
There’s a play from Week 10 against Washington (12:53 Q3, if you’d like to look it up) where Swift
catches a wide-open screen, gets in the open field, and changes direction on one foot without losing
any speed, causing a potential tackler to dive and miss. Not every RB can make that run. It makes
you understand why he glides like that…because when he finds a spot to use an electric cut, he can be
deadly. But I think we also better understand what Swift doesn’t have. He’s not a breakaway star (or at
least he wasn’t last year). Defenders run him down from behind. He’s also not a real power back. Sure,
on film I see the occasional trucking of a cornerback, but mostly: no. His best asset is that pow, that
lightning change of direction. If his vision comes around, if he becomes more decisive, we’re talking
second cousins with LeSean McCoy…that kind of quickness. Yes yes, I’m sure Jamaal Williams will play
some, and be a nuisance, and people will get mad at Swift. It’s exactly what happened with Aaron Jones.
But if Swift learns to trust his eyes, go faster, and only cut decisively when it’s really there, he could
turn out great. His August has been rocky, though: he missed early-camp time with a groin injury.
I’m not lowering his rank for the first Almanac update, but he’s got to get back to practice! For
the second Almanac update: he did! Dan Campbell—his meathead coach—has made noises about
Swift not being in shape and we probably shouldn’t overreact to those. By the same token, we
always say pay attention to the negative stuff, and the fact that Swift missed weeks with a groin
injury and has earned his coach’s public ire caused me to lower the sophomore RB about half-around, and give Williams a boost.
22. DARRELL HENDERSON LAR
Pod nickname:
Henderson The Gain King
Age: 24 • 5’8” • 208 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
624 Rush YD • 16 Rec • 159 Rec YD • 6 TD • 3 Big Runs • 23 Snaps/G • 9 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: C • Receiving: B • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 42
’20 Final Rank: 31
’21 Ranks Range: 10-40
We didn’t know much about Henderson headed into 2020. He had just 43 touches as a rookie, and the
Rams drafted Cam Akers in the second round last spring. I made Henderson a low-cost flag player last
summer because too many folks made assumptions that he wouldn’t be part of the Rams’ plans. That call
worked out pretty well in the season’s first half: as of Week 10, he was fantasy’s RB15. Come December,
though, Akers asserted himself as the starter, and by season’s end Henderson was on IR with a highankle sprain. All Rams running backs looked good behind what might’ve been the NFL’s best offensive
line; Akers’ and Henderson’s best plays usually began with time to assess the defense, and often featured
massive lanes.
For ’21, the world turned upside-down in July, when Akers tore an Achilles’ while training. He’s out.
For the moment, that injury makes Henderson a very clear Rams starter, far ahead of recently acquired
Sony Michel and unknowns like Xavier Jones and Jake Funk. Let’s admit that in ’20 Henderson proved
he’s a solid pro. He’s small but solid and crashed in a few goal-line touchdowns—he had 15 goal-to-go
rushes in ’20, which was top 20 in the league and only two fewer than Akers—but his best stuff relates
to his in-play vision and speed: I love how frequently on tape Henderson gets going and sees to the
second level early, so he can set up an onrushing linebacker or safety and accelerate past. He also got the
corner often and made defenders look slow, and caught Jared Goff screens well enough to believe he’ll
improve on 16 catches.
With this rank, I’m obviously not biting down too hard on the crusade to view Henderson as an
unquestioned NFL starter. I made him a flag player in mid-August because on some sites, his ADP
just hadn’t caught up to the idea that he’s probably the Rams’ lead guy no matter what, and
frankly Michel’s acquisition might put a little more ballast into Henderson’s average fantasy
draft position. But I’m not budging him. It was always likely the Rams would add another
running back, and Sony Michel is not the worst case. He’s a plugger, and he’ll play. But my rank
of Henderson always assumed someone else would play. Michel has a complicated playbook to
learn and isn’t a pass catcher; he might get a chance at a big role later in the year, but I strongly
believe Henderson will be the one to own early on, whereupon he could put some distance
between himself and the competition. (Let’s hope Henderson’s camp thumb injury isn’t a big
deal!)
23. KAREEM HUNT CLE
Age: 26 • 5’11” • 216 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
841 Rush YD • 38 Rec • 304 Rec YD • 11 TD • 3 Big Runs • 33 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/9 PPR
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 27
’20 Final Rank: 10
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • Power: A- • Receiving: A- • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüü
’21 Ranks Range: 12-24
There are several reasons to be wary about Kareem Hunt. First off: he’s an idiot and possibly worse.
The NFL is filled with bad guys we know about and bad guys we don’t…Hunt made his personal
distastefulness public by hitting a woman in a hotel corridor, and followed it up by driving stoned and
ruining his chances at a big free-agency payday. Just as there’ll always be apologists for dinks like this,
there’ll also be people who don’t want to draft him in a fantasy league because they don’t want to root
for him. I’m sympathetic with the latter group.
But Hunt is also a big reason why the Browns are good. You’re maybe selling your soul by employing
him, but you’re also getting a bargain. Hunt is certainly one of the 15 best running backs in the league.
He brings a ridiculous hammer on power runs for a modestly sized RB, plus catches it great. He’s
making a legit good salary for a backup, but attached to a different brain he’d be sitting on $25 million
guaranteed and Cleveland wouldn’t be able to afford him.
Another reason to worry about selecting Hunt this high in your fantasy draft is: Nick Chubb. There’s an
argument that goes, “Oh, don’t worry, the Browns are so run-heavy that there’ll always be enough work
for both guys,” but that’s a dangerous plank to walk down. Last year that was true: nearly 500 carries
and 21 rushing TDs on a team without a mobile QB makes a meal at which both Chubb and Hunt can
feast. But things in the NFL don’t stay the same. The Bills just increased their passing yards by 1,391 in
a single season. I believe Chubb is special enough that if only one guy’s going to be useful for fantasy,
it’ll be him.
It’s also worth noting that Hunt scored just shy of 40% of his fantasy points in the four-plus games
during which Chubb was out injured. (I’m including Week 4 against the Cowboys, when Chubb played
13 snaps then got hurt.) But there were definitely weeks in 2020 when they were simultaneously
productive: five times Chubb and Hunt each reached double-digit fantasy points in the same game.
The Browns backfield will be a rotation and snap count numbers will look similar. Hunt will run more
routes and catch more passes, Chubb will make more big plays because he’s awesome, and they’ll split
goal-line work. Hunt has also proven to be incredibly durable, never missing a game DUE TO INJURY
in his four-year career. He’s a very good player and probably not a very good person, and I’ll leave it to
you.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I’m going to have a ton of teams with Kareem Hunt on them this year. You might
normally think that an NFL squad having two very good running backs means in any
given week the floor for each of them is really low, but in Cleveland’s case I don’t
think so. I think they realize what Baker Mayfield is and they’ll commit to double-digit
touches for both guys. Every week it’ll be Chubb with 18-to-22 touches and Hunt with
13-to-15. Even if you crap the bed, you’re still getting eight fantasy points a game.
But then you also have the Wonka lottery ticket if Chubb gets hurt. I still think Hunt is
an elite talent and if he was on his own team, he’d be a top-10 back. So if something
happens to Chubb like it did last year, boom, Wonka bar.”
24. MELVIN GORDON DEN
Pod nickname:
Melly
Age: 28 • 6’1” • 215 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
986 Rush YD • 32 Rec • 158 Rec YD • 10 TD • 5 Big Runs • 40 Snaps/G • 18 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/10 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B- • Power: B+ • Receiving: B+ • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 18
’20 Final Rank: 13
’21 Ranks Range: 14-28
Melly’s had quite the character arc. We fade in on him as the despised rookie in 2015—217 touches
without finding the end zone—while Danny Woodhead’s matinee-idol good looks and teeny-tiny mouse
paws win America’s heart. He earns grudging respect with back-to-back 12-touchdown campaigns, but
stat-huggers still hate him: after all, look at his yards-per-carry! In his fourth year, he posts a great YPC
and 14 TDs, and finally is welcomed into fantasy nation’s kitchen for cocoa and s’mores. But the next
year he sprains a knee, maybe isn’t quite the same guy when he comes back, and makes a great big noise
about holding out in ’19; now he’s the greedy veteran who doesn’t know how good he has it! In ’20 he
leaves for $16 million in Denver, and he’s the wily mercenary upsetting the apple cart. He posts an okay
season for a bad Broncos team, he’s 28 and heading into the last year of his deal…and Denver spends a
second-round pick on Javonte Williams, with sinister liquidation plans on their minds.
This is some Walter White stuff.
So Gordon was fine last year, but not quite the same. He was wonderful Week 13 against the Chiefs;
it wasn’t just the 65-yard scamper that kind of randomly opened up for him (his younger self scores
on that run): he actually ground down KC’s defense, mostly making one cut, dragging tacklers. But in
other games he didn’t have the true evasive snap from his Chargers days. If anything, though, his power
looks were better: Week 11 against the Dolphins he pounded in two red-zone runs and almost dragged
four defenders to a third TD late in the game, but fumbled at the goal line. His vision is still wonderful.
He ducks in and out of momentary alleys in a way that would benefit spryer backs. His run-to-run
toughness has always been awesome. He’s himself, only less so. (Aren’t we all?)
As you’ll see below, Melly has the NFL’s third-most touches over the past six years, and it probably
shows. I don’t think he’s cooked, and none of this means Williams is ready to supplant him right away.
The Broncos probably don’t know how the mix will work out. There were times, in between his messy
injury situation, when Phillip Lindsay looked better than Gordon last year, and surely the team hopes
and believes Williams has a higher ceiling than Lindsay. In what feels like a transition season, I’ll give
Gordon a slight nod over Williams, realizing that we really won’t know anything perhaps into October.
Let’s just hope when he goes out, Melly chooses a path other than lying on a concrete floor listening to
Badfinger.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Is it fair to say Melvin Gordon is “an old 28”?
Well, he’s touched the ball a lot. Here are the six biggest RB touch workloads from 2015 to 2020:
Player
Todd Gurley
Ezekiel Elliott
Melvin Gordon
Frank Gore
Le’Veon Bell
Latavius Murray
Team
LAR/ATL
DAL
LAC/DEN
IND/MIA/BUF/NYJ
PIT/NYJ/KC
OAK/MIN/NO
Touches
1,703
1,654
1,530
1,435
1,288
1,277
Games
88
71
82
93
59
93
Of course, that’s a pretty specific sample size: the six seasons ending in 2020. Is 1,530 touches
a big workload across the past 15 years? Well, we’re in an age of backfield specialization and
timeshares, and even a relative horse like Gordon—never the best RB in the league, always pretty
darned good—has regularly seen touches siphoned off by lesser teammates, so you’ve probably
already guessed that there are some much larger touch numbers out there:
Player
Steven Jackson
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Team
STL
TEN
MIN
CHI
PHI/BUF
BAL
Years
’06-’11
’08-’13
’08-’13
’08-’13
’12-’17
’08-’13
Touches
2,057
2,014
1,982
1,892
1,825
1,799
Games
86
95
89
91
87
92
In fact, I counted 51 separate six-season RB chunks over the past 15 years in which an RB has
touched it more than Gordon in his career. Some of those guys did it multiple times. (Frank Gore
did it eight times.) Some of them got washed pretty quickly thereafter. (Paging DeMarco Murray,
Thomas Jones and Michael Turner.) I’m probably making a mistake if I declare Gordon’s career
workload some kind of world-historic problem sure to sink him in ’21. Then again, teams pamper
their RBs more now, and so maybe having the third-highest workload in these times will be a
problem going forward.
25. JAVONTE WILLIAMS DEN
Age: 21 • 5’10” • 212 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
mark ingram
’21 Ranks Range: 18-40 • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
John Elway was bad at drafting running backs. Ronnie Hillman (3rd round/2012), Montee Ball
(2nd/’13), Devontae Booker (4th/’16), De’Angelo Henderson (6th/’17), Royce Freeman (3rd/’18) and
David Williams (7th/’18)…that’s what we call “The Buster Bluth.” As in: results only a one-handed manchild could love. So I guess it’s good for Javonte Williams’s future prospects that Elway has turned the
Broncos GM job over to George Paton (whom George C. Scott did not play in a biopic). Maybe that
gives Williams a fighting chance.
Prospects like Williams walk on a knife’s edge. You watch his North Carolina game film and you’d think
you’re seeing a 230-pound thumper. He lowers his pads and delivers contact, he sighs away arm tackles,
he drags defenders. The fact is, though, that Williams isn’t a bruiser by NFL standards. He’s certainly
not tiny-boned, but the style that requires you to run through full-grown professional men usually also
requires Saquon Barkley’s frame. History is littered with mid-sized backs who succeeded as bullies in
college but couldn’t do it in the pros: Julius Jones, Brandon Jackson, Ball, William Green…but then every
so often this kind of player turns out to be Mark Ingram or Frank Gore.
Williams isn’t going to dance, and he’ll rarely be described as explosive. The question is whether he’s a
step up from Jordan Howard Mode. (And remember: Howard is listed at 224 pounds and probably plays
at closer to 230.) If you’re smart with your body and really strong and pretty lucky, you can carve out
a long-term career as an undersized power RB, provided your agility and vision are above replacement
level. That’s what we’ll find out in ’21. The Broncos would love for Williams to be heir apparent to
Melvin Gordon, who’s entering his contract’s final season and who seemed to lose a few mph off his
fastball last year. Gordon is likeliest to begin the year in charge of this backfield…but that may change
as the season wears on.
26. MIKE DAVIS ATL
Age: 28 • 5’9” • 221 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
642 Rush YD • 59 Rec • 373 Rec YD • 8 TD • 2 Big Runs • 37 Snaps/G • 19 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B • Power: B • Receiving: B+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 18
’21 Ranks Range: 16-30
Podcast listeners have been hip to Mike Davis’s work for a few years. He never got run with the Niners,
but in Seattle became a solid complimentary back who did everything pretty well, including catch passes.
His payday with the Bears in 2019 resulted in nothing good, then he wound up with the Panthers and
then Christian McCaffrey got hurt and Davis’s spotlight moment arrived. And for a good long while in
’20, he thrived!
I have an easy, two-word way to put you in the right headspace. Alfred. Morris. You’ll never be tempted
to call any of his individual attributes “excellent,” but he’ll do everything pretty well. You’ll get good
power runs from this (cue Cousin Josh) thicc-back-baybee. His change of direction is actually pretty
solid, even if his top-end speed is uninspiring. Maybe Morris ran with slightly more oomph—remember
Alf’s rookie year he rushed for 1,600+ yards!—and maybe Davis catches it better, but in terms of lowto-the-ground, non-gravy-booted, Weebles-wobble-but-they-don’t-fall down…Davis and Morris are
displayed in the same aisle at the supermarket.
For most of Davis’s career, that’s meant he’s been subservient to more naturally gifted players. But in
Atlanta? Boy, so far he looks like the main game in town. The Falcons haven’t re-signed Todd Gurley
and haven’t make a play (in free agency or the draft) for any other name you’d care about. Qadree
Ollison and UDFA rookie Caleb Huntley will try to separate from each other in training camp, but
without a veteran signing late, Davis looks like a pretty pure starter. That worked in Carolina, though
Davis’s efficiency dropped as his workload stacked up….Maybe plodding thunder-boomers Ollison or
Huntley wins Arthur Smith’s attention and spell Davis, and maybe that’d be a good thing. Let’s not
overrate Davis because of his depth chart, but let’s acknowledge he’s solid. It’s easy to imagine him as a
weekly flex.
27. DAMIEN HARRIS NE
Age: 24 • 5’11” • 213 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
691 Rush YD • 5 Rec • 52 Rec YD • 2 TD • 4 Big Runs • 24 Snaps/G • 5 Routes/G
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: B+ • Receiving: D • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 59
’20 Final Rank: 44
’21 Ranks Range: 20-50
Patriots Footie Pajama wearers began 2020 annoyed with this guy. After a ’19 rookie training camp in
which he was so unimpressive he saw five offensive snaps all year, Harris needed pinkie surgery heading
into ’20 and missed Weeks 1 through 3. When we finally got to see him play, he wasn’t the main culprit
behind New England’s increasingly enervated performances, but he didn’t exactly pick the offense up by
the scruff of the neck and shake it. As a prospect, I suspected he was Peyton Barber. Now that I’ve seen
him run against the pros? He’s probably…a slightly better Peyton Barber?
Harris is quite physical. I re-watched his film soon after watching James Robinson’s, and the experience
was similar. They take no prisoners. They are out there to go as fast as they can at all times and smash
someone at the end of it. Harris is strong…but he’s not nearly as strong as Robinson, and so he doesn’t
get away with as much. He also did not play on third down: Harris played 243 snaps overall…and 12 of
them came on third down. Unless something changes pretty dramatically, the best Harris can hope for is
to lead the early-down brigade and hope the Patriots don’t get blown out of games, because he probably
ain’t playing in hurry-up, either.
New rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is a bigger version of the same player. James White returns the
favorite to catch passes out of the backfield, and maybe J.J. Taylor auditions for that role, too. Even
with Sony Michel traded to the Rams, that’s a lot of humans who play the same position. I don’t
believe Harris is guaranteed a massive workload, and if anything, Michel’s trade is a vote of
confidence in Stevenson. Still, having the other veteran big back leave town before Week 1 is a
positive for Harris. His rank gets a nudge skyward here, but I’m not impressed enough to view
him as a no-brainer. There’s a world where it’s Stevenson and not Harris who goes off in ’21,
and certainly there’s a world where they each play so much nobody winds up with consistent
value.
28. MYLES GASKIN MIA
Age: 24 • 5’10” • 200 lbs • Injury: 7
2020 Stats:
584 Rush YD • 41 Rec • 388 Rec YD • 5 TD • 3 Big Runs • 43 Snaps/G • 20 Routes/G
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B • Power: C- • Receiving: B+ • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 27
’21 Ranks Range: 20-36
On one hand, Myles Gaskin is Bran Stark on the throne, seeing everyone else he competed with for the
Dolphins’ starting RB gig vaporized. Jordan Howard? Gone. Matt Breida? Gone. DeAndre Washington?
Gone. (Clayton Fejedelem? Still in Miami, mostly plays defense, but awesome Game Of Thrones name.)
On the other hand, Myles Gaskin is also the dumb-dumb producers that foisted the final two seasons of
GoT mediocrity upon us. We watched what he created. But we knew we could do better.
Last summer, Gaskin won that starting gig. There’s no question: he came out Week 1 and played 39
snaps, only getting spelled by his more senior teammates. And for about half-a-season, he stayed atop
the pecking order, until a knee injury cost him a month and then COVID cost him an additional two
weeks. If we’re giving points for already having impressed his coaches enough to turn him from a
seventh-round draft pick into a starting NFL running back, then okay, Gaskin goes into training camp
as the favorite to lead Miami’s backfield.
But there’s the pesky matter of his actual play. It was platoon-worthy. He’s a smaller back who’ll stick
his face in traffic, but usually his nose gets ripped off. His speed is okay, but certainly not top end. He
seems to want to cut a lot, but I rarely saw him actually evade tackles. To my eyes: he is Just A Guy. The
fact that the Houses of Howard, Breida and Washington got burned down by Gaskin says more about
them than it does about him. During Gaskin’s absence in 2020’s second half, Salvon Ahmed looked
almost exactly the same; I think if you’d let Ahmed play in a Gaskin uniform, nobody would’ve been the
wiser. And now lifetime plugger Malcolm Brown joins the Dolphins and will certainly have a chance
to earn big-back carries. I strongly suspect the Dolphins will fracture the RB job amongst imperfect
options. If the market wants to tell you Gaskin’s a draft-day RB2, tell it right back: SPLINTER IS
COMING.
29. TREY SERMON SF
Age: 22 • 6’ • 213 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
melvin gordon
’21 Ranks Range: 14-50 • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
There’s no sense having experts on if you’re not going to listen to them. I do my best, but I’m no college
scout. When the esteemed Matt Waldman comes on my podcast and says Trey Sermon is his favorite
running back in the 2021 NFL Draft, ahead of brand names like Najee Harris and Travis Etienne…
we’d do well to listen. Matt eats college tape the way I eat pro tape, and has done this for a decadeand-a-half. (Go buy his Rookie Scouting Portfolio. It’s awesome!) He’s not always right, but his opinion
carries weight. It helps that HarrisFootball’s own Patrick Murray jumped on the pre-draft Sermon train,
praising his smooth lateral agility and contact balance, qualities that don’t show up when the RBs are
getting timed and measured in their underpants.
Essentially, though, it seems it’s impossible to merely “like” Trey Sermon. You’re either high on him
or—like a lot of Draft Twitter—think he’s an absolute stiff. Why couldn’t he hack it at Oklahoma? Why
didn’t he pop until his final few games at Ohio State? If he’s so great, why’d he come out of the National
Championship game after one carry? It’s true that Sermon has an injury history: he tore an ACL in ’19
and got triple-body-slammed early in that final collegiate game dislocating his shoulder. But we hear
he’s ready to go for his rookie season in San Francisco.
Schematically, this is a good fit. Sermon’s leading quality as a prospect is his quick change-of-direction…
he’s not one of those jitterbugging LeSean McCoy guys, but when he sees it and hits it, he shifts his
vector without losing speed. The Niners love zone, they love stringing out a defense toward the sideline
and letting their RBs create, and Sermon can do that. The drawback of landing with Kyle Shanahan, of
course, is that Shanny Junior hasn’t usually picked one guy. Raheem Mostert is the veteran leader, and
other bodies line the room: Wayne Gallman, JaMycal Hasty, Elijah Mitchell…even Deebo Samuel gets
carries when he’s right. (The Jeff Wilson injury helps all these guys acquire a bit of upside.) Then again:
if Sermon is as good as his believers say, he’ll be better than any Shanahan RB so far, which could justify
bigger workloads. If that happens, we’ll all look at Waldman and say that with Sermon he was (ahem)
preaching to the choir.
30. RAHEEM MOSTERT SF
Pod nickname:
Honey Mostert
Age: 29 • 5’10” • 205 lbs • Injury: 15
2020 Stats:
521 Rush YD • 16 Rec • 156 Rec YD • 3 TD • 2 Big Runs • 29 Snaps/G • 11 Routes/G
8 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: C+ • Receiving: B- • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 26
’20 Final Rank: 47
’21 Ranks Range: 20-50
Someone once told me that Beck is the musical equivalent of a fedora. That made me laugh pretty hard.
Somewhere along the way, the world decided that Beck was a genius, despite the fact that no song of
his has pierced my consciousness since 1996. He won a Grammy for Album of the Year in ’14, and I’m
convinced that record is just 47 minutes of the sound of critics sniffing their own farts.
What does any of this have to do with Honey Mostert? Well, by golly, when did we decide this guy was
good? In the second half of the Niners’ Super Bowl season, he went on a goofy TD spree and suddenly
people remembered he used to run track. I gotta be honest: I know there’s some NextGenStats dude out
there with a radar gun who’ll tell you Mostert hit 60 miles an hour at the end of one run, but play-toplay…I don’t even find him that fast. He’s 29. He’s been on five teams. He’s never caught it much, he’s
never had more than 137 carries in a season, he missed eight games in ’20 with a sprained MCL and a
high-ankle sprain. This is your king? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Let’s add into the mix that when it comes to running backs, Kyle Shanahan is a commitment-phobe. He’s
like me with boxes of cereal. I love to go to the store and buy like six boxes of cereal and line them up
on the shelf and then not eat too many of any of them, because I just like having a whole bunch of boxes of
cereal. The Niners’ scheme is great, and I grant you that Mostert has had higher high points than anyone
else in that scheme over the past four years, so to ascribe him no upside would be naïve. But they signed
Wayne Gallman, they still have deep-league darling JaMycal Hasty, and they drafted both Trey Sermon
and Elijah Mitchell. Buddy, if Raheem Mostert gets 200+ carries this year, I’ll eat my hat. (And in
order to put my ranks where my flags are, I swapped Mostert in Sermon in the second Almanac
update. I still don’t really have any greater idea about whether either guy noses ahead of the
other, but I’m more willing to take the risk on Sermon.)
31. RONALD JONES TB
Age: 24 • 5’11” • 208 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
978 Rush YD • 28 Rec • 165 Rec YD • 8 TD • 6 Big Runs • 31 Snaps/G • 12 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B- • Power: B • Receiving: C+ • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 29
’20 Final Rank: 15
’21 Ranks Range: 16-32
RoJo is pretty good at everything. He’s got moves. He can power through contact. He breaks the
occasional long run. He catches it fine. You wouldn’t number him among the best running backs at
any of these things, but the moment you tell yourself he only gets what’s blocked, he’ll make a threequarters-speed juke and shake free, and the moment you think he can’t produce in physical situations,
he scores five out of seven times from inside the 3. Three years in, we have a solid handle on Jones.
Any illusion I had that he’d be a superstar is gone, but his skills categorize him as a good, solid starting
running back.
But do the champs categorize him that way?
They didn’t during their Super Bowl run. Leonard Fournette took advantage of Jones breaking his
pinkie, injuring a quad, and also going on the COVID list in December, becoming Tampa’s lead back on
the road to the title. I will tell you I think Jones is a better player than Fournette—and plus he’d almost
have to be less annoying—but I will also say Fournette isn’t a total bum. It makes sense that both will
play a lot as long as each is healthy, and let’s also note that Gio Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughan are still
around. Plus it’s important to realize that when you draft any Tampa Bay player, you become invested
in an ecosystem managed by one of the biggest coaching liars in the business. Bruce Arians literally told
reporters Vaughan was due for a breakout year ten days before signing Bernard. The Bucs often flipflop
which RB they use based on who whined in a meeting. We try to ignore Arians as much as possible,
but in what looks like some flavor of platoon, we can’t help scanning for clues and we’re regularly
flummoxed by Mr. Hat. Draft Jones in the middle rounds to be a flex or a bench player, hope for a
workload increase I think he could handle, then invest in earplugs.
32. CHASE EDMONDS ARI
Pod nickname:
Chase Volume
Age: 25 • 5’9” • 210 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
448 Rush YD • 53 Rec • 402 Rec YD • 5 TD • 4 Big Runs • 31 Snaps/G • 16 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 7 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • Power: D • Receiving: A • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 52
’20 Final Rank: 30
’21 Ranks Range: 20-40
Life is pretty sweet when all you have to do to be considered “stable” is stand next to Kenyan Drake.
Fantasy owners who endured the Vomit Coaster that was Drake’s 2020 season and were looking for
a respite and maybe a breath mint found refuge in Edmonds. Maybe he’s never run for 500 yards in
a season, but his game is predictable: he’s a wind-up toy who’ll make a half dozen cuts on every run,
line up in the slot, carry reverses and end arounds, and catch passes downfield. The joke in nicknaming
Edmonds “Chase Volume” is that he actually never gets any, and probably never will. There was a
25-carry game in Week 9 against the Dolphins last year, but it mostly consisted of Edmonds throwing
his body against the rocks. He’s not built to be a leading man.
But compared to Drake, Chase Edmonds represented something that went right with Arizona’s offense
last year, and that leads us to believe he’ll be a decently important piece in ’21. James Conner arrives
in the desert and makes sense as a touchdown vulture, but he’s never healthy plus doesn’t really
fit Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. They want four-wide, pedal down, ghost motion, jet action,
multifunctional players. Edmonds isn’t much of a running back in the traditional sense, but he could
catch 100 passes if that became the plan.
So which is less insulting? Calling Edmonds a Worse Darren Sproles or a Better Chris Thompson? If
you’re after more than that, if you’re still somehow trapped in summer ’19 hipster talk that Edmonds
is destined to be a full-time player, personally I think you haven’t watched him. The Cardinals have
Conner and also Eno Benjamin is kicking around the practice squad. Chasing volume is never a good
idea anyway, and all but the most starry-eyed Edmonds enthusiasts have to admit: the volume in Arizona
looks far short of guaranteed.
33. A.J. DILLON GB
Age: 23 • 6’ • 247 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
242 Rush YD • 2 Rec • 21 Rec YD • 2 TD • 2 Big Runs • 8 Snaps/G • 3 Routes/G
11 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Elusiveness: C- • Power: A • Receiving: C- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 53
’20 Final Rank: 76
’21 Ranks Range: 24-40
People just like the big guys. When a big guy does anything vaguely athletic, announcers bellow, fans
shriek, and fantasy players nap with visions of Jerome Bettis dancing in their heads. Already this
summer we’ve read homespun stories about how A.J. Dillon has named each of his thighs. (That’s not a
joke. That happened.) I guess it’s charming? It’s always seemed a little to me like losing your mind about
a cat playing the piano. Like, okay, wow, amazing. The song isn’t very good, though, right?
Dillon isn’t straight-line slow, but sometimes it literally looks painful for him to change directions:
he’ll take a misstep trying to shuffle his feet into position and almost fall to the ground without being
touched. (Sometimes he’ll actually fall to the ground without being touched.) Of course, he’s absolutely
huge, and very willing to detonate defenders once he gets square. Bettis isn’t the former Steelers back
Dillon reminds me of; I think he’s basically James Conner. For one season, being Conner was awesome!
But it required a ton of patience for stuffed runs, and an offense (and offensive line) good enough to
push people around. Everyone fell out of love with Conner real quick when those big lanes weren’t there
and when the Steelers didn’t have leads to protect.
For years the Packers tried to make Jamaal Williams a thing, but nevertheless Aaron Jones persisted.
Jones is a borderline-elite player, and Williams wasn’t, and A.J. Dillon probably isn’t…but I imagine
there are 150 touches out there for Dillon, because there always were for Williams. And you know
what? That’s cool! Personally if I draft Aaron Jones early, I don’t want him handling it 20+ times a game.
Dillon will be a menace on the goal line and feature in some highlights where the announcer voices
funny noises as though an avalanche is happening as Dillon runs. But it would take an Aaron Jones
injury to make drafting A.J. Dillon truly amusing.
34. KENYAN DRAKE LV
Pod nickname:
Not That Drake
Age: 27 • 6’1” • 211 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
955 Rush YD • 25 Rec • 137 Rec YD • 10 TD • 6 Big Runs • 40 Snaps/G • 14 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: C • Receiving: B- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
It’s torture, right? He’s torture.
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 14
’20 Final Rank: 12
’21 Ranks Range: 20-36
Nobody could watch Kenyan Drake play and call him terrible. There are times he flashes all-world
acceleration, he finds cutback lanes, and his long speed is good. When everything breaks right on a play
and he finds a hole and gets going, he looks like an elite player. And when someone gets super-excited
about Drake, that’s how you know they’ve mostly only watched his highlights. On SportsCenter, he’s a
superstar.
But there’s an awful lot of smashing into defensive linemen and falling down! Too many times he takes
a run directly toward the sideline with people chasing him, and instead of cutting it back he just runs
out of bounds. Too many weird drops at inopportune times. Dating back to his Dolphins days when I
saw so much on-field promise after his second season and made him my #1 flag player of 2018, Drake’s
whole has always been less than the sum of his parts. His cumulative numbers always feel better than
the experience of owning him week by week. In ’20, he finished 12th in standard RB fantasy points but
caught just 25 passes and garnered eight of his 10 TDs on carries from inside the 3. (He had 19 carries
from inside the 3!) That national TV Cowboys game when he broke a 69-yard (nice) basura-time run
got him attention he legit deserved. Then he sort of squandered it. True, the very next game Drake
suffered an ankle injury that had him in tears on the sideline, but he only missed one game. He got
temporarily benched in Week 14 for fumbling twice in the span of three plays. It’s always something!
The Cardinals knew him best after having paid him a ton on the transition tag, and let him walk. Jon
Gruden and Mike Mayock never met a square peg they wouldn’t try to fit into a round hole, so they
gave Drake $8.5 million guaranteed, which isn’t chump change. Either they know something we don’t
know about Josh Jacobs, or Drake is about to become the back half of a platoon. It’s obvious from this
rank that I trust Jacobs way more than I do Drake. But Drake should be drafted in all leagues in case I’m
wrong.
35. MICHAEL CARTER NYJ
Age: 22 • 5’8” • 199 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Dion lewis
’21 Ranks Range: 24-50 • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüü
There’s a fine line between Dion Lewis and Warrick Dunn, and it’s impossible to know what you’re
getting until they actually play in the NFL. Is Michael Carter a modern-day specialist, who can help out
with traditional running back carries in a pinch but is better suited to a third-down role? Or is he an
exception to the tiny-boned rule, who can make a living dodging and weaving and reading the post-snap
flow of a defense, making right decisions, and getting chunks whenever they’re available?
History tells us we’re bad at making this call, because college football doesn’t afford us a true test. Any
small RB trying to make it in the league was necessarily an athletic stud in college. Carter had a 7.9
YPC and 18 runs of 20+ yards at North Carolina last year, both marks that led the nation. He rushed
for 308 yards in his final collegiate game. That’s amazing! But how much of it will translate when every
defender he faces will be better than every defender he’s ever faced, and when he doesn’t have the option
of being physical to accomplish his goals? Patrick Murray did a YouTube breakdown of Carter for our
channel, and found a lot to like, but also found instances where his in-play vision wasn’t up to snuff.
Players like Dunn and Brian Westbrook and Charlie Garner…they became leading men because they
were quick and fast, yes, but also because they had a preternatural ability to find places to run. Let’s
face it: every year we hear about the next undersized college star who’s going to break loose and become
a pro feature back, and they almost always turn into Jahvid Best or Ronnie Hillman or Kevin Faulk or
Ameer Abdullah.
Carter should get some run as a rookie, and we’ll begin to find out whether he can be another
exception. Other than him, the Jets backfield consists of bad players who washed ashore: Tevin Coleman,
Ty Johnson, La’Mical Perine, Josh Adams. If Carter can’t get on the field, it’ll tell us a lot. But you won’t
be drafting him as a fantasy starter, so you can afford to be patient.
36. JAMAAL WILLIAMS DET
Age: 26 • 6’ • 213 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
505 Rush YD • 31 Rec • 236 Rec YD • 3 TD • 1 Big Run • 28 Snaps/G • 13 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Elusiveness: C • Power: B+ • Receiving: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 38
’21 Ranks Range: 36-50
What more can I say about Jamaal Williams that hasn’t already been said? We all lived through the
Actually Jamaal Williams Is Good™ Era. Man, great times, right? Quarantine wasn’t even a twinkle in
our eye. Then we lived through the Aaron Jones Is Overrated™ Era. I’ll admit it, those times were even
better…Childish Gambino making an awesome video to make us think? Phew! Next came the Don’t
Forget About Jamaal Williams™ Era, in which everyone seemed to subliminally accept that Jamaal
Williams was, in fact, heartrendingly average, but also wanted us to remember his name just in case, I
dunno, A.J. Dillon’s left thigh accidentally broke Aaron Jones’s spine during Omaha drills? Set all this to
a montage. I’m teary-eyed.
Well, now I guess I’m proud to report that heading into Year 5 of his NFL career and changing from the
Packers to the Lions, Williams no longer seems to be the sneaky cause célèbre of fantasy hipsters across
the globe. HE IS FINE. HE IS A FINE NFL-QUALITY BACKUP. There’s no need to make everyone into
a potential stud, right? You could just, like, watch the games and see what they can do? Williams is a
slow, steady player who “gets what’s blocked” but also brings some legit thump to the job, and while he
doesn’t exactly run a lot of deep post patterns, he’s proven reliable catching short stuff.
Please allow your league-mates to listen to new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn make all
sorts of comforting sounds about how Williams might be an equal platoon partner with D’Andre Swift.
If both men are healthy, that’s as transparent a lie as “Wow, Ben Affleck really nailed that scene.” Will
Williams potentially get 10 touches per game, and score a few TDs? It’s what he does. But listen. Swift
has some issues, and I detailed them in his profile, but he’s a dang jumping bean. Williams’s talent
doesn’t compare. But given Swift’s protracted absence through August because of a groin injury
and Dan Campbell throwing a bit of shade Swift’s way because of his conditioning once he
returned to practice, I bumped Swift down a couple notches and correspondingly hiked Williams
a bit.
37. PHILLIP LINDSAY HOU
Age: 27 • 5’8” • 190 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
502 Rush YD • 7 Rec • 28 Rec YD • 1 TD • 6 Big Runs • 24 Snaps/G • 9 Routes/G
11 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: A- • Power: D • Receiving: B- • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 38
’20 Final Rank: 61
’21 Ranks Range: 24-50
There are two categories of NFL analysis. Category 1 is stuff we can observe with our own eyes.
Category 2 is everything else. We don’t know how playing time will break out. We don’t know who’s
been promised a major role. We don’t know which teams are going to be great and which ones terrible.
We don’t know who’s a nice guy and who’s a menace and who looked at the coach cross-eyed. Most
fantasy resources base most of their analysis on Category 2 assumptions. “Since we know Player X is
the starter….” “Since there’s nobody else on that depth chart….” “Since they’re always going to be playing
from behind….” I assume that’s part of why you’re here: I try to base as few of my opinions as possible
on settled Category 2 assumptions.
Phillip Lindsay is a really good little player. He finished RB12 in his 2018 rookie season and RB19 in
’19, surpassing 1,000 yards rushing in both campaigns. He’s 190 pounds soaking wet but he’s blazing
fast and lightning quick and shows very little regard for his personal well-being: for three seasons in
Denver, this dude flung himself full speed into almost every run. It worked for two of those seasons, but
in ’20 it got him hurt. In Week 1 he suffered a toe injury that cost him three games, over the course of
the year he suffered a concussion and a knee injury, then in December a hip injury sent him to injured
reserve. It’s not hard to understand why Denver moved on.
So why the disquisition about Category 2 at the start of Lindsay’s profile? Well, we’ve gotta rank these
guys, but we can’t know the Texans’ plans until we see them unfold. They have a ton of washed-up
bodies on their running back depth chart: David Johnson, Mark Ingram, Rex Burkhead. In theory, I like
Lindsay more than any of them. I’d like to rank him highest. But will the Texans see things as I do?
Will they let the mighty-mite steer while his bigger, older teammates cheer? I can’t tell you. Camp buzz
probably won’t be about Lindsay. We’ll hear how much DJ has left, how Ingram is everybody’s father
figure, how Burkhead knows winning. But I like the idea of a late-round Lindsay flyer. Category 1 stuff
tells me he’s the best RB. We’ll see if the Category 2 stuff gets in the way.
38. JAMES CONNER ARI
Pod nickname:
The Squirminator
Age: 26 • 6’1” • 233 lbs • Injury: 12
2020 Stats:
721 Rush YD • 35 Rec • 215 Rec YD • 6 TD • 5 Big Runs • 41 Snaps/G • 17 Routes/G
13 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: C- • Power: A • Receiving: B • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 24
’20 Final Rank: 25
’21 Ranks Range: 20-40
If I knew we were getting 17 healthy games out of James Conner, I’d rank him ahead of Chase Edmonds
and lots of other guys. But it’s 2021 and the Squirminator deserves no such trust. I’ll makes excuses
for his final two seasons in Pittsburgh here in a second. But the bottom line is you’re taking your own
medical condition into your hands if you rely on Conner as an every-week fantasy starter.
But he didn’t suddenly become a terrible player. 2019 was wrecked for most Steelers by Ben
Roethlisberger’s injury. ’20 wasn’t as bad, but the days of Le’Veon Bell playing behind the game’s best
offensive line are long gone. Conner’s style already requires a longer runway than a lot of backs, and he
often didn’t get it. The Steelers seemed to get frustrated with him halfway through last season and tried
other options like Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels, but it’s not like those guys fared any better.
Listen, nobody’s shocked Pittsburgh let him walk. He’s got a wonderful personal backstory, recovering
from cancer to play in the NFL, but it’s always seemed to be something with him. Last year, he hurt
an ankle right out of the gate, he missed two games to COVID, and he labored with a bad quad all
through December. This offseason he hurt his toe in an ATV accident and needed surgery. The Cardinals
got him cheap and aren’t committed to anything. But he’s a good player! He’s an absolute hammer at
233 pounds—in 25 career runs inside the 3, he’s got 15 TDs—and while he isn’t particularly agile,
his top speed is decent. He’s also not as bad a receiver as you think, so while Edmonds obviously gets
preference in the Cardinals’ short passing game, Conner won’t be entirely forgotten. If he’s healthy.
Which he won’t be. But I’ll say this: if you’re trying to knock it out of the park with a later-round pick,
Conner should come cheap.
39. DAVID JOHNSON HOU
Age: 30 • 6’1” • 224 lbs • Injury: 7
2020 Stats:
691 Rush YD • 33 Rec • 314 Rec YD • 8 TD • 4 Big Runs • 45 Snaps/G • 24 Routes/G
12 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: A- • Receiving: A+ • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 23
’20 Final Rank: 19
’21 Ranks Range: 20-40
What’s the saddest song you know? I dunno, for me it could be Ben Folds Five doing “Brick.” But maybe
you have your own personal go-to. And in order to get ready for what might be David Johnson’s final
Almanac profile, I suggest you get your selection all queued up.
The unanswerable question is what might have been. DJ flexed onto the scene the second year of his
career. He finished as the overall #1 player in fantasy with 20 scrimmage touchdowns, 2,118 scrimmage
yards, 80 catches and the biggest lock in dynasty leagues of the past decade. At age 25, Johnson was
about to win your league for two or three straight seasons. He was a crushing power back with aboveaverage speed, above-average moves, and a wideout’s hands. Everything was coming up Milhouse.
Then the Injury God came calling. In the final game of his historic 2016, Johnson suffered one of the
nastiest-looking knee injuries ever, as two guys bent him over and it looked for all the world like his
leg had snapped. It was “just” a serious sprain. Then first game of ’17, Johnson dislocated his wrist and
missed the entire rest of the season. He hasn’t been the same since. In ’19, he hurt his back and missed
games with a bad knee. Last year, he missed three games with a concussion and another due to COVID.
He’s 30 now. I’ll admit: with fewer than 1,000 career carries, he’s got less tread taken off his tires than
most men who’ve reached anything near his ’16 pinnacle, but if his ’20 tape is any indication: he’s not
getting back up there again.
He’s still a really good receiver. He’s still big enough to be an answer near the goal line, though if
Mark Ingram makes the team, Ingram’s a better answer. Mostly, though, at age 30 DJ looks very much
like the guy he was most compared to in younger days: Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, he looks like
Adrian Peterson when he turned 35. Volume could give him an opportunity, but if we’re supposed to
pay attention to the negatives that come out of training camp, then we should listen to Johnson
himself, who’s expressed frustration at his role playing behind both Phillip Lindsay and Ingram.
DJ is probably still the only one of these with the chance to be an every-week no-brainer fantasy
starter. But it’s not a very good chance. For the moment, I’ve lowered him below Lindsay, who is
obviously closer to his prime (even if he’s a possibly worse bet to stay healthy). If it’s actually
Ingram who makes the team and Johnson who gets cut? Welp, I’ll have gotten it wrong. Johnson is
a brick and you’re drowning slowly.
40. DEVIN SINGLETARY BUF
Pod nickname:
Devin Single-Carry
Age: 24 • 5’7” • 203 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
687 Rush YD • 38 Rec • 269 Rec YD • 2 TD • 3 Big Runs • 37 Snaps/G • 18 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: C • Receiving: B- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 16
’20 Final Rank: 37
’21 Ranks Range: 20-45
Oh, goody. I’ve really been looking forward to this one. Singletary was a flag player for me last year, and
it worked out horribly. All summer 2020, I told you Singletary might be a T.B.E. (tiny-bones exception),
that he was a smaller Kareem Hunt replete with balance and vision, that he preternaturally battled
through arm tackles, that he was going to be your RB2. And then it turned out to be bloody nonsense.
My apologies! When a call misses this badly, it behooves me to wonder if there’s a process error I can
correct. Is there something I missed? In this case, I think it’s fair to say I was blinded a little bit by
situation. Josh Allen had been bad for two seasons so part of me figured it would always be thus, and
maybe I was looking for a player to take advantage of what I assumed would be a run-heavy attack,
without Frank Gore in the picture? Oops. Instead, the Bills became a top-10 passing machine without
nearly the same production needs from their rushing. I don’t think I assumed that rookie Zack Moss
would be totally uninvolved (and once he got healthy, he wasn’t). Maybe I just thought the pie would be
bigger for them to split. Not good.
What I say next might frustrate you: I don’t think Singletary’s film was terrible! I think he was a victim
of bad touchdown luck, getting tackled several times inside the 5 on longer runs, or his season might’ve
looked more respectable. (Finishing 21st in touches and 22nd in scrimmage yards isn’t great, but it
would’ve looked better with more than two TDs! That’s how you finish 37th in RB fantasy points!) He’s
still a tough little dude with directness and speed and contact balance. However, one thing continued
through his second season: the Bills simply don’t view Singletary as a goal-line back. He had five carries
inside an opponent’s 3, after getting one in ’19. Moss isn’t great, but he’s a factor. And now that we look
at Josh Allen differently, a backfield split between two apparently-non-outstanding RBs sounds gross. I
reserve the right to change my mind again, but for the moment I’m mostly out on Devin Single-Carry.
41. GUS EDWARDS BAL
Age: 26 • 6’1” • 238 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
723 Rush YD • 9 Rec • 129 Rec YD • 6 TD • 8 Big Runs • 21 Snaps/G • 6 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Elusiveness: C- • Power: A • Receiving: D • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 77
’20 Final Rank: 28
’21 Ranks Range: 25-40
Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World is great. Hilarious premise, perfect attitude, comic-book affect, killer
soundtrack. And this summer the whole thing got a little better, because they released the Brie Larson
version of “Black Sheep” which—for nerdy fans of the movie—has been much passed-around and
bootlegged for the past decade. It’s a great song! I’m guessing it’s not Gus Edwards’s favorite song. But
he should listen to it! Someone get Gus Edwards “Black Sheep,” stat!
Has Big Gus been the black sheep of the Ravens’ backfield these past three seasons? Kind of! This
undrafted bowling ball has frankly done an incredible job carving himself out a legit role on an offense
whose rush game is its entire raison d’être. He spent his rookie year looking better than Alex Collins,
Kenneth Dixon and Buck Allen, but often playing behind them. He spent his second year taking a
backseat to Mark Ingram. And in 2020 he watched Baltimore draft J.K. Dobbins. Yet by the end of
each season, Edwards has cranked out roughly the same numbers: around 140 carries, about 720 yards
rushing and a few touchdowns. Things never feel great when Edwards is on your menu of possible
fantasy starters, because you haven’t known when the three-carry, six-yard game is coming. But the
reasons I’m able to get him near my top 40 RBs this year are that Edwards is a tough guy who’s good at
what he does, and Ingram has left, so it looks like a two-man backfield.
Well, three. Lamar Jackson is great, and going to rush it a lot. But we don’t know for sure what the
Ravens plan to do with Dobbins. Is he about to become a 300-touch player? I actually kind of doubt
it. These last two seasons of Lamardom, there’ve been between 410 and 440 running back touches
available in Baltimore, and I suspect the ultra-reliable, ultra-sturdy, ultra-thicc, ultra-slow Edwards can
lasso a bit more work than he’s done so far. He’s a walking-around incarnation of Shonn Greene: not
much ceiling if everyone stays healthy, but a banger’s floor. And speaking of bangers, how about that
“Black Sheep?”…
42. LEONARD FOURNETTE TB
Pod nickname:
Baby He’s Not Too Fast (Oww)
Age: 26 • 6’ • 228 lbs • Injury: 12
2020 Stats:
367 Rush YD • 36 Rec • 233 Rec YD • 6 TD • 3 Big Runs • 28 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
13 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: C- • Power: A • Receiving: C+ • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 21
’20 Final Rank: 39
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
My best call of 2020 might’ve come tucked away in last summer’s Almanac: “Would the Jags potentially
work a transition to a younger player during the season, or would they even cut Fournette before Week
1?” It seemed unlikely, right? This former #4 overall pick, a 100-target receiver in ’19, Cousin Josh’s
silver medalist for Favorite Dude Ever…why would Jacksonville consider ditching him?
Well, the reason is that Leonard Fournette isn’t that great at football and apparently is personally
annoying as s—t.
He’s been suspended for on-field fighting. He couldn’t make it on time for meetings. Apparently after
Tampa scraped him up off the street last year, he complained about his playing time and Bruce Arians
was fed up and threatened to cut him. (I don’t keep track of the nice things NFL staff members say, but
when the bad stuff leaks out…we believe!) All of this might work if Fournette was consistently the same
badass we saw during the Buccaneers’ playoff run. But by now I think you know he’s not. He’s a big
tough bulldozer who, when he breaks into the clear, build up to some legit long speed. But he’s painful
around the line of scrimmage. You ever get that feeling you’re watching a running back who’s somehow
all shins? Like, he knows he should cut, but his socks are pulled up super-high and his shins are gigantic
and somehow prevent him from moving laterally? (Shoutout to James Mercer.) God, Fournette is one of
those big dudes who thinks he’s a small dude. It’s Dance Dance Revolting.
Is there a chance he gets his act together and takes over the Tampa backfield in ’21? If there is, it’s
small. A wise NFL team—and I don’t know about grumpy Uncle Arians, but a team led by Tom Brady
qualifies as wise—won’t put all their eggs in that basket. Ronald Jones is good-not-great and stronger
than maybe I gave him credit for, plus seems more reliable. And given the rate at which the Bucs have
added receiving backs, I’m not sure we’ll ever get back to Lenny’s Impossible Screen Dump-Off Parade
ever again. I never have Fournette on teams. I just assume at some point he’ll fall in love with the idea
of being a hand model or quit to become a NASCAR tire changer.
43. ZACK MOSS BUF
Age: 24 • 5’9” • 223 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
481 Rush YD • 14 Rec • 95 Rec YD • 5 TD • 4 Big Runs • 29 Snaps/G • 12 Routes/G
13 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C- • Power: B+ • Receiving: C • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 47
’20 Final Rank: 43
’21 Ranks Range: 25-50
Devin Singletary’s problems weren’t all that related to Zack Moss. Oh, sure, Moss was the goal-line
running back whenever he was healthy—in the 13 games Moss was active, he had 11 carries inside
the five to Singletary’s three, while Josh Allen also had eight—but all that really tells us about are
Singletary’s perceived weaknesses. Moss himself is the kind of sturdy Brandon Bolden type who
wouldn’t be a playing-time impediment to a RB who was ready to be a star. I was just wrong on
Singletary being ready to be a star.
One thing you’ll note is that Moss is listed on many of your favorite fantasy websites at 205 pounds.
I am certainly not the weight police, but I find that impossible to believe. Somebody’s data feed has
old info. He weighed 223 pounds at his combine, and that’s what he looks like on the field. Whatever
stats you’re going to derive from him will come from his capacity for staying upright when defenders
get square hits on him, which they do a lot. And as the 2020 season wore on, Moss got really good at
withstanding contact and keeping his momentum going. However, you might not find a worse cutter in
the NFL than Moss was on film as a rookie: he sees his upfield cut okay, but can’t make his feet do the
thing…he staggers, he double-foots, he slows down. But he’s tough and workmanlike and started playing
as many snaps as Singletary in December. Then he hurt an ankle in the playoffs and required surgery.
I can’t tell you what their workloads are going to be in ’21, because nobody can. That Singletary is a
better bet for slashing runs and multiple moves and homeruns is obvious to anyone with eyeballs. But
Moss is steady and clearly more powerful. I’m the doofus who told you last summer Singletary would
easily overcome Moss’s presence and he didn’t. It could happen this year, but I wouldn’t spend much
draft capital on either of them to find out. (Moss reportedly missed time in training camp with a
hamstring problem, but that hasn’t yet factored into my consideration of this backfield.)
44. SONY MICHEL LAR
Age: 26 • 5’11” • 215 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
449 Rush YD • 7 Rec • 114 Rec YD • 2 TD • 4 Big Runs • 19 Snaps/G • 5 Routes/G
9 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Elusiveness: C • Power: B • Receiving: C- • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 35
’20 Final Rank: 56
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Sony Michel will be a running-back-hater talking point for as long as there’s an NFL. “You should never
take them in the first round!” “You should never pay them big free-agent dollars!” “You should never
let them walk around in bare feet!” (Okay, actually, no that one’s mostly for Antonio Brown.) Michel
was a first-round pick of the Patriots, #31 overall, back in 2018, and has spent three years playing
like Latavius Murray. I’m not prepared to completely engage the RB Haters Club in a single Almanac
profile—if your argument is RBs shouldn’t be paid like QBs, duh, but the best ones sure do help—yet I
can surely agree that in Michel’s case it didn’t work out for New England. And they know it, too: they
declined his fifth-year option this winter, and then traded him to the Rams in late August.
But let’s also be fair to the kid: he was a heck of a player in college but came into the NFL and
immediately needed a surgical procedure on his knee, and maybe his legs can’t get right. (He also missed
most of last summer’s training camp because of foot surgery.) Through three years, the Michel Patriots
fans have witnessed is a plugger: not a bad player, but not noticeably different from Brandon Bolden.
He also had a quad injury in ’20, caught COVID, and was a healthy scratch a couple times in November.
He and Damien Harris split work in December (before Harris’s ankle injury fragged him in Weeks
16 and 17). Now that he’s moved to Los Angeles, he has new challenges ahead, though also a
clearer depth chart. With Cam Akers out of the picture for ’21, Michel immediately slots behind
Darrell Henderson—presuming Henderson’s training-camp thumb injury is no big deal—and has
a cleaner path to carries behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. He gets a bump here,
but I’m not buying that because he’s the bigger and more physical RB, he’s immediately set to
inherit Akers’s role. At least to begin the year, Henderson should get a rigorous chance to prove
he can be the 1a option in this rushing attack, while also catching all the screen passes that need
catching. Michel looks more draftable now, but really only if you think Henderson might fail.
45. TONY POLLARD DAL
Age: 24 • 6’ • 209 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
435 Rush YD • 28 Rec • 193 Rec YD • 5 TD • 4 Big Runs • 22 Snaps/G • 11 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: B • Receiving: B • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 50
’20 Final Rank: 41
’21 Ranks Range: 30-46
You should really like Tony Pollard in dynasty. To me, last year was kind of a revelation. While Zeke
Elliott was having a bad year, Pollard had a decent one (albeit obviously with a relatively small sample
size). In redraft leagues, yeah, we have to be circumspect. I’m not sure Pollard is the kind of player
who’ll just make it obvious and leapfrog his starter the way, say, Jamaal Charles did over Larry Johnson.
Likelier in 2021, Pollard is one of the rare must-handcuffs if you draft Zeke, and we’ll leave it at that.
But let’s not leave it at that! Let’s be film weasels! Pollard’s top-line numbers look good (4.3 YPC!
33.7% of his rushes went for 5+ yards, the same mark as Josh Jacobs!) but I’d say in the moments he got
a chance to shine, he looked even better. He’s fast! Check out his second TD run in his only start of ’20,
Week 15 against the 49ers. The magic in that run is maybe the jump-stop and the second-level spin that
sees him escape a jersey tackle, but I also pay attention to the fact that he has to re-accelerate and the
defense still couldn’t catch him. If you watch Pollard’s kickoff returns, you also see alarming, borderline
electric speed out of him, which is cool because at 209 pounds he also does pretty well with contact. I
mean, he’s not Zeke crushing linebackers, but he ain’t bad.
When I look at Pollard, I see someone with the talent to be a starting RB someday. Maybe not the kind
of starting RB who’ll be amazing for fantasy independent of situation (the way, for example, his mentor
Elliott has been before ’20), but definitely worth a low-cost dynasty gambit. And who knows, if Zeke’s
biggest doubters are correct and his downward slope becomes slippery, maybe even in ’21 Pollard gets
legit run. What I do believe: he’d give you decent production in an emergency. Hence the handcuff!
46. NYHEIM HINES IND
Age: 25 • 5’9” • 196 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
380 Rush YD • 63 Rec • 482 Rec YD • 7 TD • 3 Big Runs • 23 Snaps/G • 16 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: B • Power: D • Receiving: A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 48
’20 Final Rank: 24
’21 Ranks Range: 30-50
Hines is what he is. Summer of 2019 I tried to make him more than that, calling him a flag player who
might catch 100 passes and add enough in the running game to make for a convincing standard-league
flex who was basically free in fantasy drafts. It didn’t happen. In ’20, with more reasonable expectations
and playing for a team with check-down monster Philip Rivers, Hines finished as the RB15 in PPR
leagues. Okay then.
Think prime James White, and you’ve got the right picture for Hines, except Nyheim is faster. He’s a
little gymnastic dervish, and if you don’t believe me, check out his TD catch Week 7 against the Lions,
where Rivers hoists a screen up to the sky, Hines catches it on the run in the flat, gets going, avoids a
crushing tackle by leap-spinning on the dead run, falls into the end zone and then gets up and does a
round-off with a twist—in pads—to celebrate. I don’t think Hines has elite change-of-direction quicks,
but acceleration and long speed: there’s no doubt. He’s one of the fastest straight-line players at this
position.
It’s not like Jonathan Taylor can’t catch. He can! Plus Rivers isn’t around any longer, and if new
quarterback Carson Wentz has a reputation, it’s for hero ball and not taking the easy check-down. Of
course, Wentz needed foot surgery in early August and will race against the clock to be ready for
Week 1, so if it’s the immortal Jacob Eason under center maybe that’s good for Hines? Naw, I’m
not buying that, nor am I buying the idea that if Jonathan Taylor struggles with no Wentz (if
that happens) and possibly no Quenton Nelson, Hines gets a leap in workshare. Marlon Mack is
back, returning from his torn Achilles’, and Taylor is a burgeoning star. Still, Reich is smart enough to
know he’s got a weapon in Hines. It’s not outlandish to expect 10 touches per game—on third downs, in
obvious passing situations, etc.—and with that kind of workload Hines can produce. Seven TDs might
not recur, so his ceiling is low in standard. But check him out in PPR.
47. LATAVIUS MURRAY NO
Pod nickname:
Laxatives
Age: 31 • 6’3” • 230 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
656 Rush YD • 23 Rec • 176 Rec YD • 5 TD • 3 Big Runs • 23 Snaps/G • 8 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • Power: B+ • Receiving: C+ • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 43
’20 Final Rank: 32
’21 Ranks Range: 30-44
Did you know The Brady Bunch reconvened on TV in the 1990s? I wiped this from my data banks. It
was a weekly series on CBS that morphed from a 30-minute sitcom to an hour-long drama. No joke
here! Mike Brady starts a political career. Bobby is a NASCAR driver who gets paralyzed from the waist
down and spends the rest of the series in a wheelchair. Jan can’t conceive a baby and so adopts a Korean
one. Marcia (the only cast member not played by the original) becomes an alcoholic. And there’s still a
laugh track !!!
Phew. I had to get that off my chest. Okay, back to the profiles. Hey, speaking of things that have
outstayed their welcome, here’s Laxatives Murray!
Oh, that’s not fair. He’s fine! In this stage of his career—somehow he’ll turn 32 in January—Murray
has morphed into a fine complementary player. The Saints don’t put egregious demands on him and
in recompense, Murray offers Alvin Kamara a break from the drudgery of traditional running back
work. We all know Kamara is one of the NFL’s deadliest players in space and he’s a very nice up-themiddle runner, too, but with Murray around, he can hand some of that workload over to the veteran.
The Saints are…what’s the word I’m looking for…SMART. They know they’ve got one helluva Bitchin’
Kamara, and they’d like to hang onto him for as long as possible. So they invested legit money ($3
million per season) to have Murray around and soak up something like 10 touches per game. He’ll play
a lot in blowouts (if the Brees-less Saints have any of those), he’ll actually start games (seven times
in 15 appearances last year), and he’ll crush some skulls with his size/speed combo that at this point
probably wouldn’t hold up to a full season of starter’s work.
I sure wish the Panthers and Chargers (to name two teams) would take note. It doesn’t lessen a star
RB’s impact to have them share workload. And from a fantasy perspective, it doesn’t change how
awesome the main man can be. Kamara suffered a high-ankle sprain that bummed us out in ’19, but so
far he’s only missed four career games. I believe Laxatives is part of that. I don’t think it makes Murray
an absolute must-handcuff outside deeper leagues, but he’d surely be a waiver add if Kamara gets
hurt. All this presupposes that Murray will beat out camp signees Tony Jones, Jr. and Devonta
Freeman; there was one beat report in mid-August that suggested it was a true battle to back up
Kamara. That should talk us out of handcuffing, and if it means maybe you don’t quite believe
in Laxatives at this draft spot, I get it. (I tend to think he’ll still win the battle, but we might not
know until September 1.)
48. RHAMONDRE STEVENSON NE
Age: 23 • 6’ • 230 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
legarrette blount
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
You might be offended at my player comp. You might watch two seasons’ worth of Stevenson’s college
film at Oklahoma and think, “Why, this kid has great contact balance, he veers hard to navigate away
from a crowd, he sometimes accelerates to the next level…how could you doom him with such faint
praise as calling him the next LeGarrette Blount? He’s at least Gus Edwards! If he’s a little better than
that, maybe he’s James Conner! And if he blossoms in the NFL, maybe he’s Jonathan Stewart!”
If that’s you, then I’m guessing you were displeased to hear Patriots running back coach Ivan Fears tell
reporters, “You know who he reminds me of is LeGarrette Blount.”
Then again, coaches lie and often lack foresight. Also, Mr. Fears probably doesn’t view “reminds me of
LeGarrette Blount” as the kind of insult we do around these parts. So let’s all merely accept that the
230-pound Stevenson is not going to go (as Chance The Rapper tells us) “peace poof/meep-meep/I feel
like Road Runner/I get my feet loose.” He’s going to be a power back. The question over his pro career
will circle around how sweet are his feet.
We don’t know that answer yet. But we do know that Stevenson strung together some good
practices and two good exhibition games, and that was apparently enough for the Patriots
to scrap any redshirt plans they might’ve had for him, and show Sony Michel the door. New
England’s backfield has thinned out nicely, and now looks like Damien Harris and Stevenson
on early downs, and James White and possibly a dash of J.J. Taylor on third downs. I bumped
Harris up a bit on news of the Michel trade, but it’s really Stevenson who gets the major boost.
As you saw up in Harris’s profile, I just don’t think he’s a great player, and I don’t believe this
trade means some kind of absolute commitment to him. In fact, what I think it really means is
that Fears and Bill Belichick believe Stevenson can handle being a pro right now. He’s suddenly a
decent mid/late-round gamble.
49. CARLOS HYDE JAC
Pod nickname:
Out Of The NFL
Age: 31 • 6’ • 229 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
356 Rush YD • 16 Rec • 93 Rec YD • 4 TD • 2 Big Runs • 24 Snaps/G • 11 Routes/G
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: A- • Receiving: C+ • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 55
’20 Final Rank: 54
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
That Hyde has something like 48 one-year deals over the last four seasons indicates what teams think
about his upside as a focal point of an offense, but the fact that he remains gainfully employed also
speaks to what I think is an honest skill set. Hyde is nobody’s idea of fast, but he can handle a few
weeks’ worth of starter’s workload and he’s been undersold as an effective goal-line back. In last year’s
Almanac, I said I think he and Latavius Murray are cut from the same cloth, and that still looks right to
me. Hyde’s no slug—and sure, the years have probably made him slower—but his game always has been
more thunder than lightning. Ask Patriots safety Kyle Dugger whether Hyde packed a wallop in Week 2,
after a little flare pass turned into a helmet-to-helmet confrontation down the sidelines. Ouch.
Now in his age-31 season, Hyde enters a situation that basically asks him to do what he did last year:
back up Chris Carson. (As far as I know, Carson and James Robinson have never been seen in the same
room together. Just saying.) Robinson’s carry share in 2020 was absurd, even by Florida’s absurdity
standards, and it always felt likely that Jacksonville would add to this backfield to cut him some slack.
Now that electric Clemson prospect Travis Etienne is out for the season with a foot injury,
Robinson goes back to an unquestioned starting job, but Hyde will be heard from (when he’s not
placing crank calls to Cousin Josh). Be on the lookout to see if the Jags add a better backup, but
for the moment, Hyde looks like a candidate to share some of the Jacksonville backfield’s earlydown work.
50. TEVIN COLEMAN NYJ
Age: 28 • 6’1” • 210 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
53 Rush YD • 4 Rec • 34 Rec YD • 0 TD • 0 Big Runs • 8 Snaps/G • 3 Routes/G
8 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD / 0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD / 0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: B- • Receiving: B- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Pod nickname:
Turkey Mayo
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 33
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
It’s easy to forget that Coleman’s immortalization as an uninspiring deli sandwich was originally meant
to not truly be a slam on the player, but rather a reality check for breathless highlight-watchers who
knew Kyle Shanahan would star him in the 49ers’ offense. The coach knows how to use this player ! All he
needs is to get the workload ! Finally, he could be a feature back !
He…wasn’t. As an athlete, yes, credit the guy: Coleman’s fast, even among NFL players, provided all you
ask him to do is go. If he sees a hole, and if he doesn’t have to evade anyone to get to it, he looks like
the sprinter he is. But the specialness stops there. Coleman lost half his 2020 season to injury, but when
he played, he was unproductive behind a still-good offensive line. Was this not the situation Coleman
honks always dreamed of? Even Generic Brand Jeff Wilson played better.
Now Coleman joins a motley crew in the Meadowlands—which is less fun than joining Motley Crüe
playing the Meadowlands—and owning him on a fantasy team means guessing that everything breaks
right for him. With rookie Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, La’Mical Perine and Josh Adams in the RB room,
it’s possible he could separate himself from that group. Meh, but it’s just as likely that he doesn’t. (Don’t
you dare say, “But the head coach knows him, so he’ll play a lot!” again. Don’t you do it.)
Situations matter, and maybe more than any other team, we don’t know what the Jets will look like. But,
more to the point with Coleman, we know this player. To borrow from Cousin Josh: take your Turkey
Mayo and get out of here. (Then again, now that I’m studying Average Draft Position a lot closer,
I see that Tevin Coleman is literally—literally!—going undrafted in most leagues. I think that’s
goofy. I don’t believe in his ability enough to plant a flag on him, but I do think you could do
worse than take him in your late rounds. I think people are getting fooled into believing Carter
will get the gig to himself.)
51. SALVON AHMED MIA
Age: 23 • 5’11” • 196 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
319 Rush YD • 11 Rec • 61 Rec YD • 3 TD • 1 Big Run • 33 Snaps/G • 12 Routes/G
6 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B • Power: D • Receiving: B+ • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 64
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Miami’s backfield in 2020 was the Spider-Man pointing meme. (Oh, yeah, and throw in Jordan
Howard.) With Ahmed, Myles Gaskin, and Matt Breida (who’s now in Buffalo), the Dolphins had a type:
small guys who try to run like big guys and sometimes succeed, but also get hurt because they’re small
guys who try to run like big guys.
What’s the difference between Ahmed and Gaskin? Squint and it’s tough to find many. Maybe Gaskin’s
a touch thicker? (Er, I mean thiccer.) And maybe Ahmed is a bit faster? But really, that’s splitting hairs.
On film, they’re quite similar: they’re about the smallest guys out there, they’re asked to run the full
gamut of power and zone, and they look decent when it’s blocked up nicely or when they can shift
laterally to the outside and get going. Neither one does much that the average NFL reserve can’t.
In ’20, Ahmed got two midseason spot starts, sat with a shoulder injury for three straight weeks, then
got healthy and made another start Week 15. Neither he nor Gaskin is the future star running back of
the Miami Dolphins...that guy is probably in college right now. (Or maybe high school.) But if Malcolm
Brown is the only guy they’re gonna add, well, sure the burly Brown has a chance to lead the team in
rushing touchdowns, but someone else is almost certainly gonna play. Coming out of last summer’s
training camp, that was Gaskin, so for the moment I’m assuming that’ll be the case again in ’21. But
Ahmed could beat him out, or could overtake him once injuries bark again.
52. ALEXANDER MATTISON MIN
Pod nickname:
The Founding Fathers
Age: 23 • 5’11” • 220 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
434 Rush YD • 13 Rec • 125 Rec YD • 3 TD • 4 Big Runs • 16 Snaps/G • 7 Routes/G
13 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • Power: B+ • Receiving: C • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 45
’20 Final Rank: 50
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
In the land of the backfield-by-committee, the handcuff is king. Or prince. Whatever.
I’ll cop to it: I thought Mattison was worth an all-in FAAB splurge when Dalvin Cook got hurt against
Seattle in Week 5 last year. In that game, Mattison relieved Cook and he looked great. He was powerful
and violent and slashed through tacklers. “I’m not throwin’ away my shot,” you could almost hear him
spitting (if you were a huge nerd with Hamilton on the mind because of Luke Hill’s mixtape). He looked
like Cook, if someone had made Cook wear an extra set of pads. For Week 6 against Atlanta, Mattison
got the start, and if you had the foresight to draft him or the good fortune to add him, you were feeling
strong. This was the moment we’d been waiting for.
And then against a not-very-good Falcons defense, he gave you 26 yards. And Cook got healthy and
didn’t miss another game until Week 17. Thanks for playing.
Such is the life of a presumptive handcuff! We don’t know when injuries will turn out to be seasonending, and we really don’t know when a backup is inheritance-worthy until we get to see him play
against the big boys at full speed over a longer stretch. Did Mattison prove he can’t be a wise fantasy
fill-in that bad day against Atlanta? I re-watched those 12 fateful plays and I sure didn’t love ’em—
especially when Mattison gets stuffed from the 3 on back-to-back plays—but I’d also tell you there
were a whole bunch of defensive players constantly meeting him in the backfield. On his only good
run, Mattison was stopped, shifted left, got the corner, hurdled a tackler, and netted 16 (of his 26!)
yards. He’s still got an interesting combo of power and balance. The only real question is whether Cook
drafters need to stretch to make sure they also draft Mattison, old-school handcuff style. My definitive
answer is: maybe. If you know he’ll get snatched up if Cook gets hurt...I don’t hate it. In competitive
leagues, Mattison is just about the last handcuff you’re considering for ’21.
53. MARLON MACK IND
Age: 25 • 6’ • 210 lbs • Injury: 21
2020 Stats:
26 Rush YD • 3 Rec • 30 Rec YD • 0 TD • 0 Big Runs • 11 Snaps/G • 6 Routes/G
1 Game • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+? • Elusiveness: A-? • Power: B-? • Receiving: B- • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 32
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Mack never was going to be a workhorse with Jonathan Taylor joining in 2020. But in Week 1, we saw
a glimpse of an alternate reality denied us, in which Mack was still an important weapon for the Colts.
Paired with Philip Rivers’ decrepit noodle, Mack was the one getting catches and chunk yards early. In
a single quarter of play against the Jaguars, Mack gained 8, 8, 3, 19 and 18 yards from scrimmage and
looked like the bouncy perimeter runner and receiver we’d come to appreciate after his first few seasons
in the league. Maybe he was never going to be the crusher we presumed Taylor would be, but starterlevel speed/moves/vision meant at best Taylor would have a gentle transition into a lead role. Then, of
course, Mack suffered an Achilles’ tear and his season was done.
The Colts brought him back for ’21 on a one-year deal, but speed-first running backs coming off
Achilles’ injuries do not inspire confidence. ACL tears are bad, but there’s a decent history of RBs
regaining their former glories. Achilles’? It’s a relatively uncommon injury at the position. Edgar
Bennett, Andre Brown, Mikel Leshoure, Kendall Hunter, LenDale White, D’Onta Foreman, late-career
Arian Foster, late-career Isaiah Crowell...it isn’t a long list and it isn’t a supremely talented list, but none
of them were really ever the same. Mack is young and doesn’t carry around big weight, so maybe there’s
a chance he gets right and sneaks between Taylor and Nyheim Hines on the depth chart. It might be
likelier that as training camp wears on, we realize he won’t factor into the Indianapolis backfield at all,
plus it’s worth wondering if you need to think about rostering any backup Colts RB if Carson
Wentz can’t go Week 1.
54. DAMIEN WILLIAMS CHI
Age: 29 • 5’11” • 224 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
0 Rush YD • 0 Rec • 0 Rec YD • 0 TD • 0 Big Runs • 0 Snaps/G • 0 Routes/G
0 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+? • Elusiveness: C+? • Power: B-? • Receiving: B+ • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
The last time we saw Williams, he was ripping off a long touchdown run in Super Bowl 54 to ice the
Chiefs’ win over the 49ers. He subsequently opted out of the COVID season, and now he joins the
Bears. Williams was pretty good as a Patrick Mahomes caddie. That 2019 season, he had fine long
speed, decent power and vision, and an okay change of direction considering his 224-pound frame.
In a misshapen Kansas City championship backfield that had Shady McCoy, Darrel Williams, Darwin
Thompson and a few games’ worth of the ghost of Spencer Ware, Damien Williams was in and out of
the lineup with knee and chest injuries but was probably the best running back of the lot.
“Having a year off” might be our trendiest crutch argument in a post-pandemic age, but when a guy
is 29, we could just as easily question whether he can recapture his pre-layoff form. Maybe he’s fully
healthy and rested! Maybe he’s rusty! We won’t know until we see him. In Chicago, Williams probably
would require a David Montgomery injury to claim any fantasy value...or he’d need Montgomery to go
full Jordan Howard. (Never go full Jordan Howard.) But Williams numbers among the most talented
pure backup RBs in the league, so if such an injury takes place, standard-league value could ensue. And
who knows: if Justin Fields gets the quarterback job early on, and speed becomes more central to the
Bears’ offensive enterprise? Williams might get an uptick anyway as a just-fine pass catcher; he’s a
faster, more dynamic (if significantly less bruising) player than Montgomery. Tarik Cohen’s torn ACL
not being ready for training camp and rookie Khalil Herbert possibly becoming a factor led to
a reshuffling of Bears RBs in the first Almanac update. Maybe the end of exhibition season will
help define who belongs in this range: Williams or Herbert.
55. JAMES WHITE NE
Age: 29 • 5’10” • 205 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
121 Rush YD • 49 Rec • 375 Rec YD • 3 TD • 0 Big Runs • 23 Snaps/G • 11 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B- • Power: D • Receiving: A+ • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 37
’20 Final Rank: 57
’21 Ranks Range: 36-50
It’s fun to be a dot connector! When you’re a dot connector, life is a legible series of patterns! For
example: “Hey,” the dot connectors thought, “Cam Newton threw it to Christian McCaffrey a thousand
times, so why can’t Cam Newton do that with James White?” It turns out that no, even with Newton,
James White is not Christian McCaffrey. It also seems that without Tom Brady, he’s kinda not even
James White.
You know White’s schtick: he’s wholly unexciting, but he’s one of the more bankable floor players in
the game (particularly if you play PPR; I’ve got him ranked a full round higher in that format). He is
the walking-around embodiment of a flex where you’re trying to make sure you get something. Most
seasons, he’ll get a handful of dump-offs each week and compile chain-moving receiving yards. Alas in
a dysfunctional 2020, the Patriots’ offensive disarray made fantasy casualties of nearly everyone, and ol’
Jimmy Blanco was no exception: White compiled his fewest receptions and rush yards since 2015, and
his fewest receiving yards since ’14.
Maybe the dot connectors are tempted to up the ante, and throw out the ’20 season as a COVID wash.
Maybe they’re having a look at the array of new Patriots offensive personnel (Hunter Henry! Nelson
Agholor! Jonnu Smith!) and feeling confident that everything will run smoothly once again, which could
allow White to resume his steady, low-ceiling ways in ’21. Maybe they’re right! But it’s a long damn
time since I had to fight the notion that White had become a midseason RB1—three years, in fact—
because by now everyone knows what this guy is: a slot receiver who lines up in the backfield. Even the
dot connectors can’t debate us there.
56. J.D. MCKISSIC WAS
Age: 28 • 5’10” • 195 lbs • Injury: 11
2020 Stats:
365 Rush YD • 80 Rec • 589 Rec YD • 3 TD • 0 Big Runs • 38 Snaps/G • 24 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B • Power: D • Receiving: A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 34
’21 Ranks Range: 30-50
How does a journeyman satellite back go from James White wannabe to productive James White
wannabe? By sidling up to Alex Smith, of course! The American Ninja Worrier—sigh, probably the last
time I’ll ever get to use that sobriquet in an Almanac!—was at his most worried in his final season: a
dinky, dunky check-down sensei. McKissic was the prime beneficiary. Look, he’s a good receiver. But
he’s pretty much your garden-variety dump-off back. The 110 targets he got in 2020 (which helped him
finish as fantasy’s RB17 in the accursed PPR scoring) were largely thanks to Smith.
As a rusher, McKissic’s a lightweight...the term “bottle-uppable” comes to mind. If there’s contact, he’s
usually down quickly. In space, though, he gets himself open, runs crisp routes (especially outs), and
pretty consistently evades the first tackler. A sports page designer with only a photo of McKissic holding
the ball and no other information could feel confident just writing, “J.D. McKissic makes a catch for a
six-yard gain” without fear of being fired.
Now that the Football Team employs Ryan Fitzpatrick—the polar opposite of Smith when it comes
to downfield aggressiveness—it’s tough to know what’s in store for McKissic behind Antonio Gibson,
especially if one or more of Lamar Miller, Jonathan Williams, rookie Jaret Patterson, or (barf) Peyton
Barber cut into his snaps. Deeper PPR leagues, sure, stash McKissic and hope the riffraff around him
clears. But I’m not betting on a repeat 100+ target campaign.
57. RASHAAD PENNY SEA
Age: 25 • 5’11” • 220 lbs • Injury: 21
2020 Stats:
34 Rush YD • 0 Rec • 0 Rec YD • 0 TD • 0 Big Runs • 12 Snaps/G • 5 Routes/G
3 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B? • Elusiveness: B? • Power: B+? • Receiving: C+ • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 71
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Still just 25, Penny has nonetheless been in the league long enough, and produced little enough, to count
as a tease. He hasn’t quite reached the status of “more rumor than man,” but I don’t blame you if you
don’t want to be left holding the bag if this is the year he crosses the Breshad Perriman Threshold to
become a Keyser-Söze-like figure who haunts fantasy owners and organized criminals in their dreams.
That Penny played 14 games in his rookie season feels like a hallucination; the last two years, he’s
totaled 13.
The shame of his injury-wracked character arc is that we know he had the chops. That’s the only reason
we’re even talking about him at this point—we’ve seen it. Before Penny tore his ACL late in 2019, he
looked like a bruiser-cruiser combo and inevitable replacement for Chris Carson, who couldn’t stop
fumbling. But here we are, more than half a year removed from Penny’s return from ACL surgery—and
his subsequent knee problems late in the 2020 season—and Seattle has given Carson a new contract
while Penny will be playing the last year of his rookie deal, as the Seahawks declined his fifth-year
option.
It’s tough to bail on the memory of Penny jolting around the field with surprisingly easy speed, lateral
movement and good power, particularly because we know he’s always been one (likely) Carson injury
away from an audition for the lead role. But by now we don’t know how much his coaches trust him.
We certainly don’t know much he trusts his knee, and after managing to practice at the beginning
of training camp, Penny has once again been off to the side as daily practices wore on. The good
news is that he was able to play in Seattle’s second preseason game and came through it healthy.
Ultimately, we may end up with no idea of what might have been. It’s not a terrible idea to draft a guy
like this in your final rounds, but he’s likelier to be a waiver-wire addition.
58. DARREL WILLIAMS KC
Age: 26 • 5’11” • 224 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
169 Rush YD • 18 Rec • 116 Rec YD • 1 TD • 0 Big Runs • 17 Snaps/G • 10 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: B+ • Receiving: C+ • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
I’ll say this for Darrel Williams: he’s a terribly unexciting player, but he might be the best
Clyde Edwards-Helaire complement on the Chiefs roster. Williams is a Peyton-Barber-style
unidirectional banger. He’s a plugger’s plugger with decent power, and he’s been in Kansas City
for three years now, outlasting Spencer Ware and Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy and
Le’Veon Bell and Charcandrick West and DeAndre Washington and Akeem Hunt and C.J. Spiller
and maybe Darwin Thompson who appears to be a possible cut this September. (Side note: the
Chiefs better hope CEH works out because they’ve had a devil of a time replacing Kareem Hunt.)
If Darrel Williams winds up the main man in Andy Reid’s backfield, multiple things will have
gone horribly wrong.
But stylistically, yes, I suppose it makes sense Williams would rank higher on the playingtime pedestal than Jerick McKinnon, since even before his knee problems the best version of
McKinnon looked a little something like the Cajun Lawyer himself. Williams will play on some
early downs and maybe steal some short-yardage looks, and if there’s an X percent chance he’s
Pat Mahomes’s new caddie, that could be worth a late-round gamble. For the second Almanac
update I swapped McKinnon and Williams, making the former an afterthought while the latter
becomes vaguely interesting. We probably shouldn’t think of Williams as a handcuff in the
traditional sense, but if CEH gets injured this year, Williams would certainly be part of the
group that would replace him. (Realize, though, that Williams suffered a concussion in KC’s
second preseason game, so check that news before drafting him.)
59. GIOVANI BERNARD TB
Age: 30 • 5’9” • 205 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
416 Rush YD • 47 Rec • 355 Rec YD • 6 TD • 0 Big Runs • 31 Snaps/G • 16 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B • Power: C- • Receiving: A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 79
’20 Final Rank: 36
’21 Ranks Range: 30-50
Why not? Why can’t Tom Brady use Gio Bernard the way he used James White all those years? The Bucs
just won the Super Bowl without a true pass-catching back, as Dare Ogunbowale, LeSean McCoy and
Ke’Shawn Vaughn all crapped out, so I guess you wouldn’t say it’s mandatory. But it makes life easier,
right? Having a back who can reliably run routes where he’s supposed to and not drop the ball and
(crucially) pass protect…that’s valuable.
Bernard is a different cat from the likes of Ogunbowale, Vaughn and rotted-husk Shady. He slowed
down after the torn ACL that wrecked his ’16 season, but he’s far from helpless as a rusher. Starting
every game from Week 7 on with the Bengals in 2020, he was okay. He no longer has quickness to
create much on his own, but watch his late-first-half TD run Week 8 against the Titans, and you’ll see
him easily get through a hole at the first level, then change vectors in a heartbeat to throw off safety
Kevin Byard who lunges and can’t tackle him. I’d probably peg him the third-best ball carrier on the ’21
Buccaneers, but he can handle some mail in a pinch.
His best plays last year came as a receiver. He’s got that knack…he might’ve been a second-round pick
and a borderline top-20 fantasy back early in his career, but now he really looks a lot like James White:
good footwork, easy hands, doesn’t make blocking mistakes. Can anyone tell you how the rotation works
out with Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, or whether maybe Gio gets cut because suddenly Vaughn
figured stuff out? Nope! And we know better than to listen to what Bruce Arians says about it. (On
cue: Arians raved about Bernard in mid-August and suddenly people’s ranks on Gio skyrocketed.
I already had him in this neighborhood, and bounced him just one spot higher for the second
Almanac update.) There are a lot of bodies here and maybe the best bet is to rely on none of them. But
Bernard is a wily pro and Arians likes those, and I won’t be shocked if Gio turns out to be a PPR waiver
add in September.
60. JUSTIN JACKSON LAC
Age: 26 • 6’ • 199 lbs • Injury: 16
2020 Stats:
270 Rush YD • 19 Rec • 173 Rec YD • 0 TD • 3 Big Runs • 20 Snaps/G • 10 Routes/G
9 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B- • Power: C- • Receiving: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 46
’20 Final Rank: 72
’21 Ranks Range: 35-N/A
It’s tempting to blame injury for Jackson’s failure to become a thing, because he’s gotten hurt in each
of his first three seasons. But yadda yadda yadda, the most important ability is availability, the dude’s
really going to have to prove he’s more reliable before you’re drafting him in a standard-sized fantasy
league. In 2020, a knee injury sidelined him early and kept sidelining him late...and a couple times he
committed the unpardonable sin of suiting up but having to leave games early. Yo, man, I get it, you’re
tough as nails and proving something to your teammates, but I’ve got a CFFFL (Continuous Farting
Fantasy Football League) title to defend. Maybe knock off the macho b.s. and siddown?
Jackson belongs to that class of try-hard running back you root for at first because he’s a good story
coming out of Northwestern as a seventh-rounder and maybe he’ll bust out and maybe he’s the next
Ahmad Bradshaw. And then the years go by, and you understand that he’s a decent player—not as quick
or fast as Austin Ekeler but not a lump—but for one reason or another he doesn’t turn into Ahmad
Bradshaw, and in fact mostly becomes a potential impediment to higher-ceilinged players having bigger
roles, and then you choose not root for him at all.
That’s where I am with Jackson. The truth is that once Ekeler got hurt in ’20, Jackson was next man up
(until he himself inevitably got hurt), so that may be the plan once again. It makes sense: he does the
best Ekeler impersonation on the roster. Beat reporters have told us that Jackson has consistently
played better than fellow reserve Joshua Kelley, so I’ll swap their spots in the ranks, but we’re
almost certainly going into the season without a clear idea of who else might see the field if/
when Ekeler gets rested. I should also note that rookie Larry Rountree made noise in the
Chargers’ first exhibition game and could also wind up being the answer.
61. JOSHUA KELLEY LAC
Age: 24 • 5’11” • 212 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
354 Rush YD • 23 Rec • 148 Rec YD • 2 TD • 3 Big Runs • 20 Snaps/G • 8 Routes/G
14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B- • Power: C+ • Receiving: B • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 54
’20 Final Rank: 63
’21 Ranks Range: 35-N/A
I can’t stop thinking about how the Chargers brought in Kalen Effing Ballage to be Winston Wolf and
fix L.A.’s backfield mess last September. If you’re former head coach Anthony Lynn, that’s the kind of
move that gets you fired into the sun. (If you’re GM Tom Telesco, I guess that’s how you keep your job
and get to hire a new coaching staff?)
Then again, they needed something! I thought Josh Kelley looked a little like Fred Jackson in the first
couple weeks of his rookie campaign, and as a complement to Austin Ekeler, that was exciting: after
all, ol’ Fred had a couple banger fantasy years with the Bills. But it all fell apart after Ekeler got hurt in
Week 3. After that, Kelley was bad! In Week 3, he had a fumble against Carolina that set up the gamelosing score; a week later, he and Justin Herbert botched a handoff to put it on the ground again. Trust?
Eroded. Another solution? Needed. Justin Jackson was also hurt. Kelley wasn’t the answer...so here
came...?
Kalen Effing Ballage.
I don’t think we put the kibosh on Kelley’s entire career because he came up short in its first month.
Guys learn stuff. Given Telesco’s offseason moves, it doesn’t seem like he’s ready to give up: the new
backfield competition in L.A. is sixth-round rookie Larry Rountree. Ballage has thankfully departed this
roster. Neither Ekeler nor Jackson got any bigger this offseason. Kelley still has a chance to carve out a
fun and meaningful role on what could be a really interesting Chargers offense. Of course, he also could
fumble a couple times and get replaced by Brandon Jacobs. Time will tell.
62. MALCOLM BROWN MIA
Age: 28 • 5’11” • 222 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
419 Rush YD • 23 Rec • 162 Rec YD • 3 TD • 0 Big Runs • 29 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
6 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Elusiveness: C- • Power: B+ • Receiving: D • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 56
’20 Final Rank: 45
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
The Dolphins needed a warm, large body to complement the midsize-boned tandem of Myles Gaskin
and Salvon Ahmed. Even if both hadn’t gotten injured in 2020, someone has to do the dirty work in
short yardage. Gaskin and Ahmed combined to go 5-for-12 scoring touchdowns inside the 3 last year,
while the since-exiled Jordan Howard went 4-for-6. Brown certainly fits the mold of “a warm, large
body,” and the Rams always seemed to trust him. Todd Gurley’s knee is changing temperature? Darrell
Henderson just fumbled again? Throw Malcolm Brown in there for a series and at least know what
you’re getting.
Brown’s best skill is that it just looks like it suuuuuuucks to tackle him. He’s not a receiver and he’s not
out there to make tacklers miss. He’s a masher and a blunt object to use to smash through the line for
three yards, and that is an honest-to-goodness fine kind of player to have as long as 1) that’s all you
want him to do and 2) he sticks to doing that. Brown might just end up being a touchdown vulture,
which isn’t nothing! But it’s hard to turn that into a starting fantasy gig. We’d need to see the Dolphins
commit serious workload to Brown before I’d be willing to bite, or else we’d need an injury to Gaskin
and maybe also Ahmed. Let’s finally also mention that the Dolphins put a waiver claim on Kerryon
Johnson this spring, which tells you they can look at their depth chart as well as we can, and understand
that the running backs they currently employ are not (what’s the word?) good. We can’t be drafting
these dudes as though someone else might not come down the pike before or even during the season.
Brown gets a slight bump in the final Almanac update as the world seems to be realizing that
Gaskin isn’t any kind of sure thing, but it’s still far likelier that Brown serves as annoyance than
fantasy weapon.
63. KHALIL HERBERT CHI
Age: 23 • 5’9” • 204 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Ke’Shawn vaughn
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
On one hand, I’ve got two years of David Montgomery tape to tell me he’s younger Jordan Howard. On
the other hand I’ve got my pal and NFL Draft guru Matt Waldman saying how many similarities he sees
between Herbert and Dalvin Cook. Wow! Why shouldn’t we get a little excited?
Well, obviously there are résumé differences, and Waldman sees them, too. Cook was a megastar over
three years of college ball, with 5,399 career scrimmage yards and 48 touchdowns. Herbert played four
years at Kansas and then got a redshirt senior year at Virginia Tech, never threatening 1,000 scrimmage
yards until his 2020 bust-out as a grown man in the lowly ACC. Also, part of the reason Herbert
gets into a Dalvin conversation in the first place is that Dalvin bombed his Combine. Remember that?
Horrible lateral agility? Awful burst scores? Doomed to failure? Unfortunately, a lot of guys who test
like Cook do actually wind up stinking in the NFL. Herbert tested like that. We hope he’s not doomed to
roster churn material, but we won’t know it until we see him.
Okay, all this negativity aside, during his spectacular ’20 campaign, Herbert really was a bona fide
terror in the open field, he had good lateral movement (if not a devastating jump cut), and he set up
his blocks like a pro. The Hokies ran pistol and shotgun and Herbert was a great fit for it...and this guy
named Justin Fields is coming to the Windy City. Oh, yeah, sure, maybe it’s Andy Dalton early in the
season, and okay, yes, shut up, Montgomery is a better fit for that boring cruddy setup, plus Damien
Williams and Tarik Cohen are around, too. But maybe it’s Fields under center Week 1! That would be
so fun! Maybe Herbert gets a chance to run some of the plays he mashed last season! It’s a real long way
between here and there, but we’ll absolutely be paying attention, and I hiked Herbert just a bit for
the first Almanac update because Cohen’s knee seems like it might not be ready for Week 1. I’ll
be paying attention to the exhibition games to see if there’s a hint of whether maybe Herbert
actually surpasses Damien Williams, too.
64. DARRYNTON EVANS TEN
Age: 23 • 5’11” • 200 lbs • Injury: 11
2020 Stats:
54 Rush YD • 2 Rec • 27 Rec YD • 1 TD • 0 Big Runs • 6 Snaps/G • 3 Routes/G
5 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B+ • Power: C- • Receiving: B • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 72
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
We probably won’t know how the Derrick Henry backup situation will play out until the regular season
starts, and we won’t know if the Titans are interested in limiting their Easter Island statue’s workload
until after that. Evans’s rookie season was squashed by a bad hamstring before it could ever get going;
he wound up only playing 32 offensive snaps all year, 20 of which came after Week 15 once his
hammy got right. He was billed as an ultra-squirty fun small-college player with legit long speed, and
got drafted in the third round. I doubt the Titans have totally given up, and in fact all Titans camp
observers have claimed Evans is ahead of veteran free-agent signee Brian Hill.
Maybe Evans’s easiest path to meaningful playing time isn’t via a Henry injury or Mike Vrabel’s sanity.
Maybe it’s as a pass catcher. (Granted, with Julio Jones aboard, throwing to running backs may not
be on the regular agenda.) I can say that in Week 15 against the Lions, Evans caught a screen that
was deflected by a lineman (good), but then bobbled and almost dropped a wide-open basura-time
touchdown (nearly quite bad). And I mean, he had 14 carries. If you’re asking me what he is as an
actual ball carrier, I really can’t know that. The Titans have high hopes for their offense, and their
running game probably comes down to Henry and nobody else. But we can file away Evans’s quickness
for future reference. Something else to file away: despite the fact that I boosted his stock into lateround draftability, Evans came limping off after a carry in Tennessee’s first preseason game. It
was a non-contact injury that saw him hobbling; certainly it was at least a soft-tissue tear, but it
also could’ve been some kind of knee thing. We’d be wise to check in at the last possible minute
before jumping on the He’s A League-Winning Late-Round Pick train, a sentiment I swear by all
that’s holy I’ve actually seen among fantasy hipsters on Twitter.
65. CHUBA HUBBARD CAR
Age: 22 • 6’ • 201 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
tevin coleman
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Okay, Panthers. You had your warning. Christian McCaffrey is a marvelous, superstar running back,
but I am making it my life’s work to convince you not to kill him. Please please please don’t kill him!
I get it. An RB can get hurt on any play, and CMC’s season-wrecker in 2020 came in Week 2. There’s
no scientific way to be positive about the exact workload that’s going keep a dude healthy. But use
your damn noodles! Away from his <<COUGH>> vitamins, how much do you imagine CMC would
actually weigh? Take that number, divide it by his salary, then multiply it by your own damn IQs, and
then observe what the Saints do with Alvin Kamara. They don’t make him do everything. He’s still
indescribably awesome (for the NFL and fantasy). Please do that!
Now, does Hubbard deserve major run in his rookie year? We can’t know that yet. His highlight reel is
littered with long touchdown runs against, like, Tulsa, in which he cruises through a 10-yard-wide gap
and then sprints 80 yards. He led college football in rushing this past season, which is very cool, but
also: against whom? I’m skeptical about him. He looks like a footrace winner. He’s rather upright as a
runner, he’s had a history of ball security problems, and draftniks wonder about him as a route-runner
and blocker. I worry he’s another Tevin Coleman. (I felt the same way about Miles Sanders, and maybe
the jury’s still out on him. Players can develop.) But as a complement to McCaffrey? Sure! Whatever!
Put Reggie Bonnafon out there! Put me out there! (Wait, don’t put me out there.) Just please take better
care of the crown jewels. Or as the poet Ice Cube once so wisely intoned: check yo self before you
wreck yo self.
66. MARK INGRAM HOU
Age: 32 • 5’9” • 215 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
299 Rush YD • 6 Rec • 50 Rec YD • 2 TD • 2 Big Runs • 14 Snaps/G • 4 Routes/G
11 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C • Power: B+ • Receiving: B • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 19
’20 Final Rank: 71
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
Oh, how the flaggy have fallen.
It was just two years ago when we all made some dough on Ingram’s journey to Baltimore. As the
Ravens’ key running back cog, amassing 15 touchdowns and 1,200+ scrimmage yards, the dude was a
big win. But when RB descriptions shift from “powerful, elite balance” to “professional, consummate
teammate,” it ain’t good. And 2020 was not good. Ingram was a tanky little beast for nine years, always
ready to dole out punishment, but the cliff came fast: he played in just 11 games and got the fewest
touches of his career. I’m not sure he did anything wrong by the Ravens, at least from an evaluative
standpoint—he was never “NFL fast,” but he still finishes strong—yet their three-headed committee
was ready for fresher legs. By December and January, he was a healthy scratch, and the Ravens actually
released him during the playoffs, which was just mean.
Now Ingram lands in Houston, at least for the moment. There’s a lot of RBs in Houston. David Johnson.
Phillip Lindsay. Rex Burkhead. After what we saw in Baltimore last year, nobody’s going out on a limb
and suggesting 32-year-old Mark Ingram will wrest control of the Texans backfield. But there will be
no shortage of people predicting that the Texans won’t win a single game, that their offense won’t move
the ball, and that this team will be a fantasy wasteland. When have we heard that before…? Wait, that’s
right, it was literally last year. (Points were still scored by Texans. Oops.) So all right, it might even
be worse in ’21 depending on whether Deshaun Watson plays, but I’m still pretty sure the Texans will
score points. And since no Texans player will be drafted to be a fantasy starter, somebody could wind
up being a fantasy steal. I think it’s likelier to be Johnson or Lindsay, but it’s not totally impossible it’s
Ingram, especially since the team has stubbornly kept him at the top of its official depth chart all
through August. I don’t really believe it. But I’ll get Ingram into very-late-round territory in the
second Almanac update just in case.
67. QADREE OLLISON ATL
Age: 25 • 6’1” • 232 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
3 Rush YD • 1 Rec • 0 Rec YD • 0 TD • 0 Big Runs • 4 Snaps/G • 2 Routes/G
3 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Elusiveness: C- • Power: A- • Receiving: ? • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Ollison has played 64 regular-season snaps in his two-year pro career, and has 24 touches.
Anyone who says they’re positive what he’d produce if he earns some or all of the Falcons’ RB
gig is lying. The Falcons don’t even know. They cheaped out on their backfield this winter and
now have a mishmash of power backs and scatbacks and my (and everyone’s) assumption is that
Mike Davis has the only role worth investing in for fantasy, but who really knows?
Ollison was a collegiate thumper who produced a great freshman season for Pitt while James
Conner was out, became a backup for two years, then once again wrecked the Future Gym
Teachers Of America in his senior year. He’s slow and not agile, but he makes a living running
over smaller humans. He’s probably significantly worse in space than Davis, but reportedly
has a (very hefty) leg up on his competition for the backup job in Atlanta, ahead of rookie
UDFA Caleb Huntley, fellow elephant-in-a-uniform D’Onta Foreman, and goofball Swiss Army
knife Cordarrelle Patterson. Some of those guys might get cut before September, so you really
shouldn’t be drafting any of them. There’s no obvious handcuff candidate here. Maybe I’ve
written Ollison a profile in the second Almanac update just to put him on your waiver radar if
Davis gets hurt early or doesn’t wind up with the full gig. Or maybe I did it because “Qadree” is
a pretty cool name. We may never know.
68. MATT BREIDA BUF
Pod nickname:
The Godfather Of Troll
Age: 26 • 5’10” • 190 lbs • Injury: 9
2020 Stats:
254 Rush YD • 9 Rec • 96 Rec YD • 0 TD • 1 Big Run • 12 Snaps/G • 5 Routes/G
12 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • Power: D • Receiving: B- • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 34
’20 Final Rank: 80
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Now that the Bills have added Breida to Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, your impulse might be to
look at the Bills’ running back stable and think they have a type...hey, it’s another representative from
the Tiny Bones Guild! But Breida actually probably isn’t the same kind of player. Whereas Singletary’s
and Moss’s calling cards are play-to-play contact balance and consistency, Breida’s is (or was?) elite
quickness and good long speed. His other calling card is that he gets hurt every other play, only to
hilariously resurrect and return to the game, waiting for another catastrophic-looking injury to befall
him.
So after a 49ers career that saw him notch a top-24 standard-league fantasy finish and a 1,000+ yard
scrimmage season, what the heck happened to Breida in 2020 in Miami? Well, he just didn’t play that
much. He sure didn’t play on third downs. (He had 12 third-down snaps all year.) He was a pure
backup, and I’ll be honest: he didn’t look great. Some of that burst, some of that acceleration...gets a
pretty big meh from me in ’20. In fairness to Breida, he dealt with hamstring issues throughout the
season, so maybe he was just never right. Then again: that’s not a bug, that’s a feature.
If anything happens to the incumbent rushers on the Bills, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Breida produce,
because he’s done it before. He’s been a positive story in training camp, and that earns him a slight
bump in the ranks. After the milquetoast campaigns those two younger RBs posted while laboring for
one of the NFL’s most exciting offenses, maybe there’s a shorter leash in ’21. But Breida isn’t special in
the passing game and has five career attempts from inside the 3. T.J. Yeldon was a healthy scratch most
of last year. My hopes for Breida aren’t high.
69. JERICK MCKINNON KC
Age: 29 • 5’9” • 205 lbs • Injury: 32
2020 Stats:
319 Rush YD • 33 Rec • 253 Rec YD • 6 TD • 1 Big Run • 22 Snaps/G • 13 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B • Power: D • Receiving: A • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 40
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Did you know McKinnon scored more touchdowns in 2020 than Clyde Edwards-Helaire? Sure, you can
say that about a lot of players—CEH had only three more rushing scores than Chad Henne!—but not
very many of them are now sharing a backfield with the Cajun Lawyer.
McKinnon’s been around long enough now to have had a heyday, and it’s sad to think of how far
removed he is from it. Consecutive seasons missed to knee injuries will do that. Vicious cutting ability
was really the only attribute he’s ever possessed that was markedly better than replacement-level
running backs, and some of that field-slashing seemed gone in ’20 with the 49ers. McKinnon had a
streak early in the year in which he found the end zone in three straight games, but there was nothing
stylistically on film to indicate his echoes were ever truly being stirred. Ironically, last year durability
was McKinnon’s best trait, as Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Jeff Wilson all spent multiple weeks
on IR while McKinnon played the full 16 for the first time since ’17.
But any time the Chiefs bring in an RB, we’re contractually obligated to susurrus about possible sleeper
status. Edwards-Helaire didn’t play great in his rookie year, and particularly (and unexpectedly)
contributed very little as a receiver. McKinnon can handle pass catching out of the backfield: he caught
51 balls his final year in Minnesota. Does that mean he’s immediately in line to play third downs behind
Pat Mahomes? Of course not. In fact, word out of Chiefs camp has indicated Darrel Williams is
likely to be Kansas City’s second-man-in, while McKinnon will wait his turn. Whether that’s
true is pure Category 2, but I’m swapping Williams and McKinnon with this second Almanac
update. It would probably take a CEH injury to give McKinnon any real roster value.
70. BENNY SNELL PIT
Age: 23 • 5’10” • 224 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
368 Rush YD • 10 Rec • 61 Rec YD • 4 TD • 3 Big Runs • 17 Snaps/G • 6 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C • Power: B+ • Receiving: C- • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 58
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Can I get a “Who Else Is There?” from the congregation?
Najee Harris is gonna get some damn helium in his fantasy draft stock, because he’s a really good
prospect, but also because oy vey look at the rest of the clowns on this Steelers depth chart. I didn’t even
bother ranking Benny Snell in my top 80 last season, in the hopes that then-rookie Anthony McFarland
would be a better option (I ranked Booger Junior 69th...nice.) But when James Conner inevitably got
hurt, Snell got the first crack at replacing him.
And his hype got way out of control! You heard experts telling you to blow your entire FAAB after Week
1 on Benny Bleepin’ Snell? Sorry, the zero-RB folks who drool over guys like Snell so often forget two
important things: offensive lines matter and the handcuff himself should probably be at least somewhat
good. The Steelers’ line was atrocious, and Snell isn’t good. He’s frozen-honey slow in any but the most
obvious sprint-forward situations, he’s not quick by NFL standards, and he doesn’t thump like a typical
224-pounder. If you took his teammate, converted tight end Jaylen Samuels, and removed his ability to
run routes or catch the ball, you’d have Benny Snell.
We all think and hope Harris is a better player than Conner. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s locked
into anything, because that’s not how the NFL works and it’s really not how Mike Tomlin works. If
people are going to take Harris #7 overall, well, they deserve the same fate that befell Clyde EdwardsHelaire’s believers last year. Of course, in the (unlikely?) event Harris isn’t ready for prime time, that
doesn’t automatically give Snell big work. For the moment, the Who Else in Pittsburgh still includes
McFarland, Samuels, Trey Edmunds and Kalen Ballage. Snell was the backup last year. Maybe that means
he’s the backup this year. Or maybe not. He missed the first couple weeks of training camp with
the dreaded “lower-body injury” but as of the second Almanac update he’s returned. But we still
really don’t know who the Steelers backup is.
71. KENNY GAINWELL PHI
Age: 22 • 5’11” • 195 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
darren sproles
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
The first thing you notice about this Memphis kid is technical polish. His film shows good patience
behind blockers, strong instincts to hit holes hard, and even some refined at-the-catch skill you don’t
usually see in rookies. However, that brings us to the second thing you notice: he’s really, really little.
The Sproles comparison is maybe a little too facile, since Philly is where Sproles finished his career. But
there’s something Sprolesian in the fact that Gainwell—c’mon, universe, why don’t you just give us an
RB prospect named “Scoots Hardington”—legitimately looked like a technically sound player and not just
a superior athlete in college.
Gainwell had a tremendous 2019 and opted out in ’20 (pretty understandable since four family
members died of COVID), and lands in Philly with a chance. Miles Sanders, Kerryon Johnson and
Boston Scott all began training camp ahead of him, but were any of them unimpeachable? (The answer
is: no. The poor Whizzinator Kerryon Johnson apparently will never get his knee right, and has
already been given an injury waiver designation. His absence gives Gainwell—and Scott—a bit
of late-round juice.) Gainwell gets scouting dings because he tried to run like a big guy in college and
took monster shots in the center of the defense. Do that in the NFL at 195 pounds, and you’re eating
dinner through a straw. But if he can get stronger and learn discretion is the better part of valor, he
could develop. Plus he might have the makings of a satellite back as soon as ’21: good-but-not-great
speed, strong route-running and hands, and no power. Packages that allow Gainwell and Jalen Hurts to
make some misdirection magic could have (ahem) legs, and maybe we’ll go from there.
72. XAVIER JONES LAR
Age: 22 • 6’ • 201 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
felix jones
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Let’s not pretend we’re all Xavier Jones experts, shall we? For a while we were told that Jones
had taken the lead to back up Darrell Henderson? Fine. There was no reason to disbelieve that,
when the alternative was Jake Funk. Now the Rams trade for Sony Michel? Well, that probably
renders Jones undraftable, but who knows? People were selecting Xavier Jones in late rounds
because of a Cam-Akers-sized hole in the Los Angeles backfield. Maybe Michel is there as
veteran insurance, and maybe it’ll actually be Jones who’ll play with Henderson. All I know is:
most of the wise guys who until a couple days ago were littering their podcasts and social media
feeds with XAVIER JONES SZN couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
And I really can’t, either. Jones went undrafted out of SMU after the 2020 season. Matt Waldman
called him a “sudden scatback” in his Rookie Scouting Portfolio that year. He said that Jones’s
suddenness and acceleration are decent, but his long speed is subpar and he runs with poor
balance, and as such is too easy to tackle. Could some of these negatives have changed with a
year off? Could he be about to take the Rams depth chart by storm? Sure! Personally, I think it’s
likelier that Sean McVay dealt for Michel because he plans to use him. If the X-man makes the
team, it’ll be a terrific story, and perhaps he’ll shine in limited action and demand more work.
You probably don’t need to take him in standard-sized drafts, though. He’s more of a waiver guy
to watch.
73. LA’MICAL PERINE NYJ
Age: 23 • 5’11” • 216 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
232 Rush YD • 11 Rec • 63 Rec YD • 2 TD • 1 Big Run • 19 Snaps/G • 8 Routes/G
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD / 0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD / 1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Elusiveness: C+ • Power: B- • Receiving: B • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 73
’20 Final Rank: 73
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
NAILED IT.
It isn’t often you come to a guide like this one, and the writer winds up and flings the fastball, telling
you exactly who the #73 running back in fantasy will be. But did I do it in 2020? You’re damn right I
did. As Death Cab For Cutie sang it:
Can’t escape this line of best fit
Can’t escape this line of best fit
If a rising tide raises all ships, the inverse must be true, and New York’s ’20 skill players were flotsam
(or is it Jets-am?) dashed across the bone-dry shore. What could we possibly have learned about Perine
amid such wreckage? Well, we know he couldn’t usurp a job from animate gargoyle Frank Gore. And
how can we say bad teams can’t have productive rookie running backs, when James Robinson is right
over there waving hello?
Perine only had 75 rookie-year touches, so let’s not say we’re positive what he’ll be for his entire
career. But I see someone neither fast nor shifty, though also not repulsively terrible at either of these
things. He does a lot of feet-stamping and has vexing instincts at the line of scrimmage, but those things
can change. In comparing Perine to Chester Taylor in last year’s Almanac, that’s what I was trying to
communicate: lifetime backup, potential multi-week fill-in, and not much more. Clearly, the Jets’ new
staff saw the same tape, since they signed Tevin Coleman and drafted Michael Carter. But there are no
sure things in that room; we’re not drafting Perine as a handcuff because there’s nobody to handcuff
him to. Things would have to break madly well for him, and the Jets would have to be miles better in
’21. But he’s in the mix, provided he makes the team. There’s been some doubt about that in Jets
circles, as Perine has scuffled during the exhibition season and suffered a foot injury in practice
the last week in August. Ty Johnson also has a chance to pass him on the depth chart. Don’t draft
him.
74. BRIAN HILL TEN
Age: 26 • 6’1” • 219 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
465 Rush YD • 25 Rec • 199 Rec YD • 1 TD • 3 Big Runs • 20 Snaps/G • 10 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: C • Power: B- • Receiving: C • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 53
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
If Derrick Henry irritatingly ends up justifying his first-round price, that means that any ranking of
another Titans running back—like, at all—is too high, because Henry’s uniquely enormous workshare is
what will get him there and no crumbs will be left for anyone else. But if you can suspend your disbelief
for a few moments and imagine a world in which touching the ball 827 times (!) the past two seasons
including playoffs leads Henry to suffer an injury...well, someone might inherit a pretty plum job. Do
I know who that someone will be? Can I even promise you it will be a single someone, as opposed to
multiple someones who perhaps, combined, approximate Henry’s weight by himself? Most certainly not.
But the Titans adding Brian Hill as a free agent makes me think maybe they have some perspective on
Henry’s insane workload. Heck, maybe even a conscience.
So, let me be clear: Brian Hill is extraordinarily ordinary. He’s a bigger back, but stylistically he’s an
upright strider who needs ample space to do anything. If he gets a lane, he’s fast enough to get through
it and get up the field, but his highlight reel from Atlanta in 2020 is better served as a résumé builder
for the Falcons’ tackles and tight ends. Hill’s best work comes on wide-open holes, which is also true
for literally (literally!) every other back in the league. Once in a blue moon, Hill remembers he’s big
and stiffarms a cornerback. But a Derrick-Henry-style-smasher, he ain’t. Is he more physically suited to
volume than the likes of Darrynton Evans or Jeremy McNichols? I think so? Possibly? Truth is: I don’t
consider Hill anything like a handcuff to Henry, and in fact Evans has reportedly run with the twos
throughout training camp. Hill is worth keeping an eye on, especially because Evans hurt a leg in
Tennessee’s first preseason game. But there’s no guarantee he makes the team.
75. WAYNE GALLMAN SF
Age: 27 • 6’ • 210 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
682 Rush YD • 21 Rec • 114 Rec YD • 6 TD • 3 Big Runs • 25 Snaps/G • 10 Routes/G
15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Elusiveness: C • Power: C+ • Receiving: C+ • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 29
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
For the sake of all our sanities, let’s hope we don’t see Wayne Gallman take the field for the Niners in
any kind of meaningful capacity in 2020. Not that he’s terrible. But he’s about 73rd on the depth chart.
In the same way that if 14-year-old Lord Culldolen Xan Windsor suddenly becomes King of England,
we’ll know something has gone terribly gone wrong with the succession plan.
The Niners let Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon walk, and Jeff Wilson will start the season on the
reserve list with a torn-up knee. That leaves the presumed “starter” Raheem Mostert, Gallman, JaMycal
Hasty, rookie Elijah Mitchell and, most notably, rookie Trey Sermon. You already know I’m in on
Sermon, and the more things clear out in front of him, the better I think it’ll be for the Niners.
In recent seasons, the Giants have foisted Gallman upon us as waiver-wire fodder. He’s serviceable if
everything crumbles around him—and a crumbly world is the only kind he’s ever known—but he’s the
quintessential JAG. There are few circumstances where an NFL team looks at a slowish, smallish, notquick running back who peaked his sophomore year in college and thinks, “Oh, baby, let’s ride.” But if
the 49ers go through another revolving door of injury (don’t go through that door! it’s got spikes on
it!), Gallman is the type of guy you keep around to settle everything down. His only fantasy value in ’21
will come as a waiver add.
76. DEVONTAE BOOKER NYG
Age: 29 • 5’11” • 219 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
423 Rush YD • 17 Rec • 84 Rec YD • 3 TD • 4 Big Runs • 15 Snaps/G • 5 Routes/G
16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Elusiveness: B- • Power: B • Receiving: B • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 55
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
And bad mistakes/I’ve made a few/I’ve had my share of sand kicked in my face aaaaaaand unfortunately for
Booker, this is where I can’t hit that high note the way Freddie Mercury could, but it’s okay, because
the next line isn’t applicable anyway. There was a lot to like in Booker’s game as a rookie in Denver:
contact-seeking missile style, a few severe cuts in his bag, a surprising amount of power in a small
package. Booker is what you get when you pick up the 8-pound bowling ball to see how hard you can
throw it for laughs. But, rather infamously, he fumbled his first NFL carry—his first of four in his
rookie season—and for four years it’s felt like he’s been trying to make good on erasing that reputation.
That he couldn’t separate from C.J. Anderson, Royce Freeman or Phillip Lindsay doesn’t speak to a
special talent, either. It’s been no bed of roses.
Last year, following a lost 2019, he backed up Josh Jacobs and split work with JayAndre Richardington,
and there were times where you could still see good things. People who say “the running back position”
would call him “hard-nosed.” (I just did a quick search to make sure I didn’t call anyone else in the
RB section “hard-nosed.” Phew!) The Giants are aware of everything I’ve said to this point. They don’t
need him to be a facsimile of Saquon Barkley, especially once—or if!—the real thing eases back into his
regular usage. Booker will battle Ryquell Armstead and Corey Clement for a spot on the depth chart. For
the moment, I’m assuming Booker emerges with that backup gig. It’s a spot that earned Wayne Gallman
an RB29 finish in ’20 after Barkley’s ACL, which doesn’t mean it was a smooth ride, but opportunity
matters. Here’s hoping Devontae Booker has limited opportunites in ’21.
77. ANTHONY MCFARLAND PIT
Age: 23 • 5’8” • 208 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
113 Rush YD • 10 Rec • 61 Rec YD • 0 TD • 1 Big Run • 8 Snaps/G • 4 Routes/G
11 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B- • Power: D • Receiving: B- • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Pod nickname:
Booger Junior
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 69
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Anthony McFarland might be better than Benny Snell. When I look at the two on tape, one looks like
he’s got some spring to his game, like he’s got the potential to break a long one. The other…is Benny
Snell. Coming out of Maryland, McFarland was getting compared to Duke Johnson and Marlon Mack;
I said Matt Breida, but also told you last year to consider stashing McFarland speculatively because I
believed then, as I do now, that Snell is just a body. As it turned out, in 2020 the Steelers trusted Snell
more in James Conner’s varied injury-related absences.
Comparing a dude to Matt Breida and then having his team decide he’s less desirable than Snell...it
sends unflattering messages. We don’t know who these dudes are in college, so we should pay attention
to how their NFL teams use them. At the beginning of training camp circa ’21, it’s hard not to believe
Snell wouldn’t have the advantage over McFarland to back up rookie Najee Harris. But stuff changes!
Booger Junior has 39 career NFL touches. Just as it’s easy for me to think I see something good on
that limited film, it’s easy for Booger Junior to get a little better after his first NFL season. We all
think Harris is a majestic receiving prospect who’ll be ready to roll as a rookie, but maybe not, and
if I’m guessing which backup is likelier to be a third-down option, it ain’t Snell. The reason to track
any of this, of course, is the worry that Harris comes into the league just like Snell and McFarland did
(hell, just like last year’s first-round running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire did) and underperforms our
optimistic assertions. The problem, though, is that there are at least two guys here—and we haven’t
even mentioned the fairly forgettable Jaylen Samuels and Kalen Ballage—so for the moment there’s no
handcuffing allowed in Pittsburgh.
78. KE’SHAWN VAUGHN TB
Age: 24 • 5’10” • 218 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
109 Rush YD • 5 Rec • 34 Rec YD • 1 TD • 0 Big Runs • 10 Snaps/G • 4 Routes/G
10 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • Power: C • Receiving: C • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 68
’20 Final Rank: 96
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
I know you clicked on a link that had Bruce Arians talking up Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s impending “breakout
year.” It’s okay. Your mother and I aren’t mad. We’re just disappointed.
As a rookie, Vaughn was a bit player on 2020’s championship squad, inactive for six games and totaling
99 total snaps in the other 10. (He also took one of the absolute biggest shots of the season in Week
5 from Kyle Fuller, and got up. Tough kid.) Here’s how good the Bucs felt about going into last season
with a tandem of Ronald Jones and Vaughn: they added the ghost of LeSean McCoy before camp and
picked up Leonard Fournette before Week 1. And this spring, preparing to run it back with the same
group (minus McCoy), we’re told out of the left side of Tampa’s mouth to buy a Vaughn ascension while
the right side announces the signing of Gio Bernard. K.
Just as we’re all old enough to remember the breathless reports about what an amazing fit Vaughn would
be assuming the James White role for Tom Brady last summer—see also: Twitter—we’re also smart
enough to understand that everything with Bruce Arians is fungible. He seems like a pretty fun dude,
but he views his interactions with the media as sport. His mood depends on which underpants he picked
that day. So with Jones, Fournette and Bernard hanging around the running backs room, Vaughn doesn’t
look draftable in fantasy leagues. But Arians could jettison any one (or two) of those guys for doing a
bad 50 Cent impression or chewing gum too loud, and then maybe we’ll be talking about Vaughn again.
The properties people thought they liked last year—loose hips, decent speed, okay hands—could turn
him into a Brady bobo. But at least to start the ’21, he’s again on the periphery.
79. TARIK COHEN CHI
Pod nickname:
Human Joystick
Age: 26 • 5’6” • 191 lbs • Injury: 13
2020 Stats:
74 Rush YD • 6 Rec • 41 Rec YD • 0 TD • 0 Big Runs • 25 Snaps/G • 17 Routes/G
3 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+? • Elusiveness: A? • Power: F • Receiving: A- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 41
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Ah, crap! Dammit! Does the God Of ACLs not like fun or something! For three years, basically the
only reason to fire up Chicago Bears film was the possibility that Tarik Cohen would do something so
extraordinary you’d get over your Trubisky-induced nausea and leap up off your couch and possibly
swallow your chewing gum but you wouldn’t care because the Human Joystick had just prodded some
childhood thrill matrix residing in some deep dusty corner of your brain and reminded you of a time
when you just loved stuff and didn’t have to worry at the same time about a mortgage or medical bill
or something some mean lady said to you in an elevator. Give me 150 to 200 touches per season from
Tiny Tarik and I’d gladly endure the barf gamut the rest of Bears’ backfield-handlers run through
weekly! Aaaaaand...then in Week 3 Cohen’s knee went pop and he was done.
So now we not only have to wonder what kind of role a player Cohen’s size can reasonably expect to fill
in the NFL, we also have to wonder about the state of his knee. And maybe we don’t actually have to
wonder that much. Cohen dealt with knee stiffness in minicamp this spring, and then reported
to training camp in August and immediately went on the PUP list. Matt Nagy has said Cohen is
weeks away from being activated. He said this on August 3, so “weeks away” could still easily
have Cohen ready for Week 1. But it could also mean the torn-up knee won’t be the same all
season. I still grant you that Cohen and new presumptive franchise quarterback Justin Fields fit really
well together (as does all-everything wideout Allen Robinson). David Montgomery (and newly acquired
Damien Williams) pretty much don’t. A good team shouldn’t rush Montgomery 240+ times. But the
Bears might. Remember Cohen finished RB17 in standard and RB11 in PPR back in 2018. He was a
more exciting player than Jordan Howard then, and if his knee is right, he’s a more exciting player than
Montgomery and Williams now. But for the moment, I’m lowering him out of draftable territory.
He’s going to have to be a waiver-wire hero to help us in ’21.
80. ALEX COLLINS SEA
Age: 27 • 5’10” • 208 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
77 Rush YD • 1 Rec • 4 Rec YD • 2 TD • 0 Big Runs • 17 Snaps/G • 7 Routes/G
3 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: C • Power: C+ • Receiving: C- • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
In 2017, Collins Irish-jigged into the Ravens’ starting job when Buck Allen and Terrance West proved
not to be big-leaguers, and he wound up clearing 1,000 scrimmage yards. The next summer, box-score
readers everywhere propped him up in fantasy drafts based on this allegedly revelatory campaign. “Of
course he’ll build on his 230 touches! His yards per carry was 4.6! Baltimore didn’t add anyone else to
their backfield! WHO ELSE IS THERE???” Collins got his ADP all the way up to the fourth round for
’18 drafts, which I told you was preposterous because he’s really not a very good running back.
The Ravens agreed. They never handed that starting gig over to Collins in ’18, watched him stagger
around and handed much of his workload to Gus Edwards, saw him land on IR with an injured foot,
and didn’t re-sign him as a free agent. In ’19, Collins never played after getting arrested for pot and gun
possession and crashing his car into a tree near the Ravens’ facility, and last year returned from whence
he came: Seattle’s spare parts bin. That’s not nothing. Chris Carson gets hurt a lot, Rashaad Penny may
never be the same after his torn ACL, and every other Seahawks RB is meh. But so is Collins. On his
best runs, he’s got pretty good build-up speed which causes his highlights to make him look better than
he is. He just doesn’t create much for himself with agility or vision, nor have I ever thought he brings
much of a hammer. Let’s see if Collins even makes Seattle’s roster. If he does, there could be a path to
playing time considering the better players at his position are often injured. Most likely, though, Collins
will continue to stand as an object lesson in the dangers of drafting your fantasy team via box scores
and depth charts.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
Justice Hill, BAL
Boston Scott, PHI
Jordan Howard, PHI
Jeff Wilson, SF
Ty Johnson, NYJ
Larry Rountree, LAC
Ryquell Armstead, NYG
88. Jordan Wilkins, IND
89. Kalen Ballage, PIT
90. Jermar Jefferson, DET
91. Samaje Perine, CIN
92. DeeJay Dallas, SEA
93. Elijah Mitchell, SF
94. Royce Freeman, DEN
95. Kylin Hill, GB
96. Pooka Williams, CIN
97. Mike Boone, DEN
98. D’Onta Foreman, ATL
99. Tony Jones, Jr., NO
100. Jaret Patterson, WAS
1. DAVANTE ADAMS GB
Age: 29 • 6’1” • 215 lbs • Injury: 7
2020 Stats:
115 Rec • 1,374 Rec YD • 18 Rec TD • 8.9 AY@T (30th%) • 32 Routes/G • 30% Slot (50th%)
14 Games • 11 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 10 STD/10 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: A • Hands: B- • Situation: A • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 4
’20 Final Rank: 1
’21 Ranks Range: 1-5
It didn’t look good, Morty. It was scary and awful and bad and it looked like it might wind up the kind
of disaster that sinks your fantasy team, Morty. It was Week 2 of 2020 against the Lions and Davante
Adams was out there minding his own business blocking, Morty, and he got rolled up on, Morty, and
it was bad, Morty, and he only played eight snaps in the second half that day and then he missed two
straight games with what the Packers called a bad hamstring, Morty, and as of Week 4, Adams was
WR33, Morty, and people were calling for his head, Morty.
But then things got better, they got so much better, Morty, you got to see what one of the best receivers
of the last 20 years can do when he’s totally healthy and totally in synch and his quarterback totally
trusts him and they combined to become literally the best offensive combo in the game. I mean it,
Morty, from Week 5 on, Adams led the NFL in receiving yards, Morty, he led the NFL in touchdowns,
he led the NFL in receiver fantasy points, he got 25 red-zone targets when the most anyone else got
was 17, he was a monster, Morty, and I think you know I know something about monsters, Morty. You
can throw it to him downfield, he’s not ungodly fast, but his body position, it’s just ridiculous, I mean
you don’t see body position like this on just anyone, maybe there was a guy back on Planet Squanch, he
had some amazing body position, too, but that was during Birdperson and Tammy’s wedding and that
guy was with the Galactic Federation and he was trying to shoot everybody, but really, other than that
guy, Adams has the best coordination and body position I’ve ever seen, Morty, and he’s so strong in the
end zone, Morty, it’s like Beth’s Mytholog all over again. He’s definitely had concentration drops in the
past, Morty, but they were much better in ’20, he only dropped two passes all year and they happened
in the same game. He was unstoppable, Morty, and if he’s healthy there’s only one thing I can think of
that would keep him from being unstoppable again, and keep him from totally being worth a first-round
pick.
And you know what it is, Morty, you know what it is, of course you do, it’s the quarterback deciding to
host Jeopardy ! or bring Divergent to the North Pole for an Instagram shoot, it’s the quarterback deciding
he can’t stand the Packers and wants to piss right off, Morty, and it doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen,
I’m happy to say it really doesn’t look like it’ll happen, Morty, and I’m still really cool taking Adams
as my first receiver off the board, but just keep an eye, the quarterback’s unpredictable, Morty, the
quarterback is a troll, and if he suddenly leaves town, I mean, Adams isn’t worthless at that point, but it
obviously matters and Adams’s ranking will obviously take a tumble, Morty. Even Pickle Rick couldn’t
save him then, Morty, not even Pickle Rick.
2. TYREEK HILL KC
Age: 27 • 5’10” • 185 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
87 Rec • 1,276 Rec YD • 15 Rec TD • 13.2 AY@T (87th%) • 37 Routes/G • 55% Slot (75th%)
15 Games • 9 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 8 STD/7 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 12 STD/11 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: A+ • End Zone: B • Hands: B • Situation: A+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 2
’20 Final Rank: 2
’21 Ranks Range: 1-5
What’s the statute of limitations on feeling nauseated? This is the third Tyreek Hill profile I’m writing
since he allegedly broke his son’s arm in the spring of 2019, and I’m guessing some of you would rather
I didn’t mention it again. I thought about it. “What’s the point? People already know, and they believe
what they want to believe, and they’re either comfortable rooting for Hill or they’re not, and nothing
you can write will change that.” That’s probably mostly true.
But then I think about writing the version of a Tyreek Hill profile that doesn’t mention the fact that he
allegedly broke his child’s arm, a few years after being arrested for choking and punching his pregnant
girlfriend in the stomach, and it feels pretty gross.
Like, obviously, if a Hill profile were entirely about his on-field play, it would glory in his ridiculous
speed and his awesome deep-ball connection with Patrick Mahomes. No player in the NFL is more
dangerous with the ball in his hands. Jet motion and four-wide and horizontal zone-flooding routes
have revolutionized offenses? Okay, I’ll buy that: but watch Hill on an end-around Week 14 against the
Dolphins and tell me anyone else can do that…it’s an end-around, and they’ve got him, they’ve sniffed it
out, there’s good blocking on the play so yes, he’s probably going to get five yards, but there are three
defenders circling in on him near the sideline. He’s done. And he just takes a quick step to the inside
then turns on the afterburners to the outside and he’s gone. He’s a downfield monster, a nightmare in
the screen game, and even pitched in with seven red-zone receiving touchdowns in ’20. It seems unlikely
he’ll ever win a receiving title because he’s not quite as versatile as the bigger dudes near the top of this
list. His maximum single-season catch mark is 87. But he’s an absolute week winner.
And obviously I know there are other bad guys in the league we know about, and plenty of bad guys we
don’t, and the moment we start setting rules, we trip ourselves up. Fantasy is a fun game and often (for
me, too!) an opportunity to forget about these players as men and only think of them as football cards.
There were people who said they’d never draft Zeke Elliott again. There were people who said they’d
never draft Adrian Peterson again. We might have a similar circumstance coming with Deshaun Watson.
Is it fair that I always bring this up when talking about Hill, a player whose upside I extolled way before
the masses knew who he was? Maybe not. Maybe writing this way is a slippery slope. Hill is great. He’s
in his prime. He’s got about as good a chance as anyone to lead all wideouts in fantasy points in ’21.
You already knew that. I’m not even saying I wouldn’t take him! But I admit: even when he’s on a team
of mine, I don’t think I can ever look at him the same way again.
3. STEFON DIGGS BUF
Pod nickname:
Stefon Diggity
Age: 28 • 6’ • 191 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
127 Rec • 1,535 Rec YD • 8 Rec TD • 10.3 AY@T (54th%) • 36 Routes/G • 32% Slot (62nd%)
16 Games • 11 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/11 PPR
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 19
’20 Final Rank: 3
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: A • End Zone: B • Hands: B • Situation: A • Sensitivity: üü
’21 Ranks Range: 1-10
It’s over. He’s not our little secret anymore. Our darling Diggity has grown up.
I don’t know if you know this, but the 2020 Buffalo Bills weren’t going to throw enough to make
Stefon Diggs a good fantasy option. On average he went in the sixth or seventh round—I had him
rated late fourth and once again wound up with him everywhere—because so many experts told you
exactly what the Bills offense would be: boring. On top of that, Josh Allen was bad (I admit, I had my
suspicions there) and couldn’t complete the deep ball. Hopefully you know it by now: when analysis
is mostly based on situation, run screaming the other way! In no way am I telling you I knew Diggs
would immediately hit the ground running in Buffalo and win the NFL receiving yards crown while also
racking up the league’s most targets and catches. But if you’re new to my work, you’re just going to have
to trust me: I’ve been telling people Diggs is great for five years. He was my #1 flag player in ’19. I’ve
played his song on the podcast more than anyone else’s. He’s ours.
Well, but not anymore. Situations matter. Of course they do. They shouldn’t be the main reason you do
anything, but they matter, and last season Allen vaulted into the ranks of elite shot-takers and everybody
knows it. Having Diggs around is a huge part of that: not only does he occasionally go deep, but his allworld quickness simply commands attention, allowing guys like Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley and (early
last year) John Brown to hit homers. If there’s any actual value in drafting Diggs in ’21, it might be the
misguided notion that he’s “touchdown-capped”; he’s never scored double-digit TDs, but for instance
had back-to-back red-zone TDs called back by penalty Week 3 against the Rams…and just, y’know, go
watch Week 10 against Arizona, when Diggs’s quickness gets him open with less than 30 seconds to
play when the defense knows he’s headed to the end zone, and he grabs what should’ve been the gamewinning score (except DeAndre Hopkins caught a Hail Mary thereafter). There’s no TD cap on Diggs. If
anything, he was unlucky to “only” grab eight on such crazy usage.
But meh, who’m I kidding? Diggs is destined for the second round this year, and I’d take him there! He’s
a great, great player. And alas he won’t sneak up on anybody, unless the knee injury that bugged him
in training camp becomes a bigger deal by the end of August.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
How uncommon is a sixth-year breakout for a
wideout?
Stefon Diggs has been on our happy list for a half-decade, but he’d never actually finished a
regular season as a top-12 fantasy receiver until 2021, his sixth NFL campaign. (His highest finish
had been 13th in ’18.) That’s a while to wait! This millennium, I could only find five other WRs who
never posted a top-12 positional season in their first five years, but did it in Year Six:
Player
Andre Johnson
Marvin Jones
Robert Woods
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Brandon Stokley
Season
2008
2017
2018
2006
2004
Fantasy Finish
2nd
5th
10th
11th
12th
Previous Best
18th
22nd
33rd
15th
71st
Are there lessons we can learn from this list? Probably not, other than it would be super-cool
if Stefon Diggs goes on to become Andre Johnson. You’ve got an awesome player, you’ve got
a couple one-hit wonders, and you’ve got a couple strong dudes who probably didn’t—or,
in Woods’s case, don’t—have Diggs’s talent. It’s definitely interesting (and understandable)
that three of these guys were pre-Year-Six team-switchers like Diggs. Probably the firmest
conclusion we can come to here is: let’s hope Diggs isn’t Brandon Stokley.
4. DEANDRE HOPKINS ARI
Age: 29 • 6’1” • 212 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
115 Rec • 1,407 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 9.0 AY@T (34th%) • 35 Routes/G • 10% Slot (2nd%)
16 Games • 10 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/8 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/9 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: A- • Hands: A+ • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 5
’20 Final Rank: 10
’21 Ranks Range: 1-10
I’m a streetwalking cheetah
With a heart full of napalm
I’m a runaway son
Of a nuclear A-bomb
—The Stooges
Yeah yeah yeah, those without poetry in their hearts tell me DeAndre Hopkins’s nickname “Nuk” isn’t
for a nuclear bomb at all, but rather for a mouthpiece that looks like a particular brand of baby pacifier.
To you people, I say: BOOM !
His first season in Arizona—after the stunning trade that saw David Johnson depart for Houston—
Nuk Hopkins was…dare I say…explosive, and that trade seems every bit as stupid as the moment
Bill O’Brien’s chin cleft hatched the idea. Hopkins got his new contract on the eve of Week 1 and
was consistent right away because he’s just great at playing football: incredibly smooth with his feet,
possessor of maybe the NFL’s best hands, and when you need a miracle play against Buffalo with one
second left on the clock, no worries, throw it straight up into the sky from 50 yards away and Hopkins
will outjump three defenders and somehow win the game. Really, he’s amassed over 10,000 yards
through eight seasons. I would hope your questions about Hopkins’s abilities have been answered.
If you hesitate here at all—and you shouldn’t much!—it’s because the abilities of the quarterback and the
coach aren’t beyond reproach. Kyler Murray is a no-brainer fantasy starter because of his legs, not his
arm, at least not yet. He makes some awesome throws to Hopkins. Check out Week 13 against the Rams
from the 4, Hopkins has about one football’s worth of open space and Murray puts it there. But watch
Week 6 against the Cowboys (a.k.a. “The Kenyan Drake Game”) and you’ll see Hopkins frustrated with
grounders and airmail. And Kliff Kingsbury? Man, there were times late in the year when defenses were
playing back, playing zone, and short stuff to Hopkins was there all day, and the coach didn’t call his
number, instead focusing on higher-degree-of-difficulty stuff. I have mostly no worries, because Nuk is
Tha Bomb. But if something goes really wrong here, it could be the last thing Kingsbury does coaching
this team. (Oh, yeah and despite my brain fart during the second part of the flag players podcast,
I am actually aware that Hopkins no longer plays for the Texans. Ga.)
5. DK METCALF SEA
Pod nickname:
Decaf
Age: 24 • 6’4” • 229 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
83 Rec • 1,303 Rec YD • 10 Rec TD • 14.0 AY@T (92nd%) • 36 Routes/G • 17% Slot (11th%)
16 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: C • End Zone: A- • Hands: C • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 22
’20 Final Rank: 5
’21 Ranks Range: 1-12
Stop thinking.
The Seahawks call a lot of running plays. Russell Wilson might want to leave Seattle after this year.
Tyler Lockett is a really good player. Metcalf vanished in December of 2020, averaging five catches for
53 yards and no scores when you needed him in your fantasy playoffs.
You’re thinking too much. Stop thinking.
Just rewind the tape. Week 7. Seattle at Arizona. Wilson has the Seahawks on the Arizona 3, he throws
a rancid, floaty pass aimed at Chris Carson that Buddha Baker easily intercepts and takes the other way,
and it should be a Cardinals touchdown, it would be a Cardinals touchdown, except DK Metcalf is the
fastest or second-fastest player in the NFL and does the impossible: chases Baker down after giving him
a five-yard head start. It’s a legendary play. It’s going to the Hall of Fame. It’s going to outlive us all.
Metcalf can beat the best corners in the league deep, which is good when Wilson—for at least one more
year—is your quarterback, because no matter what changes come with new coordinator Shane Waldron,
Russell Wilson will throw the deep ball. But that’s not all Metcalf does. I’m not here to tell you he’s
out there making subtle tap-dance releases or running sharp-as-a-tack comebacks, but he’s terrifying
creating space for himself on the intermediate cross, catching it at full speed and looking for an excuse
to turn upfield. Everything the world wanted Josh Gordon to be, DK Metcalf already is, and he’s faster.
My friend, watch the Week 5 comeback against the Vikings. Seattle is losing by five with under two
minutes to play, fourth-and-10, Wilson stands in against a blitz and kind of just heaves it toward the
sideline, but Metcalf adjusts to the ball while the defender falls down, first down. On that same drive,
Wilson fired five more passes DK’s way, including the winner from the 6-yard line when Metcalf
ran a shallow-crossing out and laid out full extension to catch a perfect pass. Wilson is obviously the
Seahawks’ most important player. But Metcalf is second on that list. He is destined to be the best
wideout in the league. It might not happen this year, but it’ll happen. The WRs ahead of him on this list
might feel safer because they’ve been doing it longer, but none of them has the capacity to wreck the
NFL like Decaf.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
Metcalf is really interesting to me. I feel like after five or six games last year, everyone
had him as the #1 player in dynasty, the #1 overall receiver going forward to 2021…
and then when he tailed off at the end of the year, he got a little bit forgotten. Not
that people aren’t ranking him as a top-10 receiver, because of course they are…but I
think people aren’t appreciating that he’s got a great chance to finish as the #1. The
jerkface offensive coordinator is gone. People were so bullish on Letting Russ Cook. I
don’t think things have changed. To me there’s not enough talk about him being the
potential first receiver off the board. It may simply be that I’ve spent so much time
watching his Twitter videos. What a machine. I can’t help wondering why there aren’t
photos of him plastered all over the walls of my gym.”
6. CALVIN RIDLEY ATL
Age: 27 • 6’1” • 190 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
90 Rec • 1,374 Rec YD • 9 Rec TD • 14.0 AY@T (94th%) • 37 Routes/G • 11% Slot (5th%)
15 Games • 10 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/10 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • End Zone: B • Hands: C • Situation: A • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 25
’20 Final Rank: 4
’21 Ranks Range: 3-15
Honesty time. WR6 is a nightmare. I really, truly like the first five wideouts off the board. After that
there are candidates to produce terrific seasons, but if you think any of them come without warts, I
think you’re wrong.
There’s evidence suggesting Ridley will turn out great in 2021. Julio Jones has left Atlanta, and without
a healthy Julio in September and December of ’20, Ridley handled a center-stage role well. At his best,
Ridley’s quickness gets him open in a phone booth, and at Matt Ryan’s best, he’ll actually focus in on
Ridley and give him volume we crave. Watch Ridley’s second touchdown in Week 2 against the Cowboys
from inside the 5: Jourdan Lewis is playing outside technique and Ridley’s juke to the inside is so
convincing in just a couple strides that Lewis staggers to cover the post and Ridley flashes alone on the
out. When the Ryan/Ridley combo is good, it’s really good.
But a lot of dots are gonna get connected here. Calvin Ridley is not Julio Jones. He’s a slender guy. He’s
not powerful. He’ll catch it downfield but doesn’t have explosive speed to score on many deep shots.
And he’s been inconsistent in his three-year career. Even during a 90-catch campaign last season, I
rarely had a sense Ridley put the Falcons on his back. Week 3 against the Bears he popped a catchable
ball in the air that could’ve been picked and took an end-zone throw off the facemask. Week 4 against
the Packers, Julio tried to play but hobbled off the field and Ridley posted zero catches. He suffered an
ankle injury against the Panthers Week 8 and missed a game, and then clutched at the same ankle Week
14 after a long grab. All Falcons pass catchers have to deal with Ryan’s proclivity to let defenses dictate
where he goes with the ball; having only Ridley as a proven veteran playmaker theoretically gives him
magical workload upside, but I can’t promise Ryan won’t check it down double-digit times to Russell
Gage when you need Ridley most.
I like Ridley. When he wins, he does it something like Stefon Diggs and that’s pretty cool. So maybe
I’m angsty about nothing here, and Ridley will do for Atlanta what Diggs did last year for Buffalo. My
hesitation comes from my opinion that Ridley doesn’t look like Diggs enough, and that maybe he’s better
suited to be an excellent #2 in your NFL offense rather than a pure alpha. I’m almost sure Ridley’s
getting drafted for fantasy in the second round. I just wish I liked him appreciably more than the next
six or seven guys on my WR list.
7. MIKE EVANS TB
Pod nickname:
Duck Tats
Age: 28 • 6’5” • 231 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
70 Rec • 1,006 Rec YD • 13 Rec TD • 11.9 AY@T (74th%) • 35 Routes/G • 37% Slot (65th%)
16 Games • 9 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/9 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: A+ • Hands: C • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 9
’20 Final Rank: 8
’21 Ranks Range: 6-16
Stop the presses, Mike Evans put up an unimpressive yardage total with a great touchdown total, and
goobers out there think he’s due for a regression. Tune into the 2025 Almanac when Duck Tats is
catching passes from rookie Bucs quarterback Benny Brady and I write another rant because Terry
Bradshaw’s brain in a jar is screaming that Evans is no good because he’s a one-trick pony.
Wrong, Bradshaw’s brain! Evans is a two-trick pony!
Worries that Tom Brady’s quadragenarian arm wouldn’t be able to get Evans the ball deep proved
unfounded as soon as Week 1 last year, when Brady hit a bomb to Chris Godwin and then threw
another perfect one to Evans only to see pass interference called. In sum, Brady had the most attempts
and completions of 20+ yards in the NFL, and Evans caught 12 of them for 371 yards and four scores.
And Evans’s other bailiwick—being 6’5” and unguardable in the end zone—also bore fruit: 14 throws
aimed at him while he stood in the end zone, eight scores. Ho hum, since ’14, Evans has 45 TDs on
passes thrown to the end zone, most of any other human on the planet.
But listen, Bradshaw’s formaldehyde-soaked noodle has a partial point. Evans is the only WR in the
league who’s finished in fantasy’s top eight in each of the past three seasons. He’s got a wonderful
chance to finish there again. But the ride isn’t always fun. Evans had eight games with 50 yards
receiving or fewer, and two games with two yards receiving. He always has mind-numbing drops. He
takes offensive interference and personal foul penalties. At various times last season he looked like he
hurt an ankle and a hamstring and his groin and went through a period in November when he didn’t
get many deep balls, maybe because he was hobbled. I have to rank him as a top-10 option again…as I
have done every single year there’s been a Harris Football Podcast (that’s since ’15, boys and girls). But
it’s fair to bemoan Evans’s week-by-week consistency even as you luxuriate in the detonation weeks that
win you games. He’s not going to regress. This is who he is.
8. A.J. BROWN TEN
Age: 24 • 6’ • 226 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
70 Rec • 1,075 Rec YD • 11 Rec TD • 11.3 AY@T (61st%) • 28 Routes/G • 15% Slot (10th%)
14 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 9 STD/9 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: B+ • Hands: C+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 18
’20 Final Rank: 9
’21 Ranks Range: 8-24
I’m out of guys. A.J. Brown is a good player who’s surprised me by finishing as the standard-league WR9
in each of his two professional seasons. But ranking him inside the top 10 scares me to death. I don’t
even know if he’s the best receiver on his team.
Now, the Julio Jones trade doesn’t change what Brown laid down on tape these past two years. After
a knee injury early in 2020 cost him Weeks 2 and 3, he went right back to the business of being the
wideout equivalent of Derrick Henry. Brown isn’t tall and he’s not a pure burner, he doesn’t dazzle you
play-to-play with quicks or ankle-breaking routes. He runs the shallow cross followed by the shallow
out followed by the shallow out-and-up, and Ryan Tannehill needs play-action to get enough space, and
a lot of the time it looks like rock-you-to-sleep high school stuff that’s either thrown incomplete or is
just bleh. But then one time Brown gets the ball on the run in space and some poor schnook defender
reaches out to tackle him, and Brown laughs and trucks the guy to the fiery pits of hell. Chris Godwin,
Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown…they are a type. They’re that running-back-in-a-wideout’s-body. Mean as hell
in the open field, and explosive: check Brown in Week 7 against the Steelers…it’s nothing, man, it’s an
eight-yard square-in with a safety directly over the top, it’s not going to be anything except Brown turns
into Henry and just runs past everyone. It’s a vexing type of WR for me to evaluate, because not a lot of
guys this short and strong have played this position. Anquan Boldin is probably the forefather of them
all, and he was really good!
But then we get to Julio. A crutch argument armada could float in response to the notion of the great
receiver joining a new team. It takes away targets from everyone else! Wait, no! It leaves everyone else
more open! Prime-of-his-career Julio Jones is a vastly superior player to A.J. Brown. That’s just the
truth: when he’s right, Julio is faster, taller, stronger and quicker. But Jones also just missed seven games
with a bad hamstring and turned 32 in February. Are the Titans still going to rush on 52% of their
plays? Are they still doing the Mickey Mouse Tannehill play-action thing on a third of his dropbacks?
Are they still compressing the field with a truly old-style set of WR routes? You can see a world where
there just isn’t enough aerial excitement for two top wideouts. Not that Brown will disappear: worst
case, he and Jones go back-and-forth week by week and annoy you. Best case, though, is A.J. Brown
remains the focal point, Julio merely adds some spice, and the WR9 seasons keep on coming. (Brown
has been slow to fully partake of Titans training camp due to surgically repaired knees, but he’s
expected to be okay for Week 1.)
9. JUSTIN JEFFERSON MIN
Age: 22 • 6’1” • 202 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
88 Rec • 1,400 Rec YD • 7 Rec TD • 11.6 AY@T (68th%) • 32 Routes/G • 31% Slot (52nd%)
16 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: A- • End Zone: C+ • Hands: B • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 50
’20 Final Rank: 6
’21 Ranks Range: 8-20
Early in Mad Max: Fury Road, our ragtag heroes drive under a tower on which a helpless maiden is
trapped, and Max turns to Furiosa and says:
“That’s bait.”
Taking a second-year wideout to be a top-10 fantasy receiver seems like bait. As you’ll see below, Justin
Jefferson is coming off a historic rookie campaign, but we’d be dumb not to acknowledge that his 1,400
yards came with an asterisk. I can point to three or four fluky long gains that padded those stats: plays
on film where a defense just kind of let him run free for a big gain. Shave a couple hundred yards off
his total and give better health to any of about 10 injured WR stars, and we probably would’ve gotten a
more modest and reasonable fantasy finish. As it is, Jefferson ended as WR6 and is set up perfectly for a
sophomore slump.
Except I don’t think it’ll happen. I think he’s damn special.
I told you in last year’s Almanac that Jefferson is my kind of prospect, but I didn’t know the half of
it. How does the phrase “faster Keenan Allen” strike you? I can’t help it. He’s a star. He came into the
NFL ready to go. Jefferson has outrageous release moves coming off the line…so outrageous that by the
end of 2020, corners weren’t trying to bump him anymore. He adjusts to the ball beautifully midflight,
sometimes looking backwards over his head to track a pass. He makes plays when the defender is tight.
And his breaks are uncoverable, which is where the Allen comparison comes from. Kirk Cousins is
the platonic ideal of the median professional quarterback. Adam Thielen led the league in end-zone
targets on his way to nabbing 14 scores to Jefferson’s seven. And Jefferson sprained an AC joint in
his shoulder early in training camp (though so far nobody seems to think it’s a big deal). These
factors matter and don’t work in Jefferson’s favor, but I’m not hedging. Jefferson’s splashdown in the
Twin Cities isn’t the same as Stefon Diggs’s—he’s not as fast and probably not as dangerous post-catch—
but I’m no less excited about it. In other words: I’m taking the bait.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
How big was Justin Jefferson’s rookie year?
Considering he set a record for most receiving yards in a season by a rookie...it was pretty good!
Of course, the NFL has never been pass-happier, so comparing Jefferson’s first campaign to, say,
Randy Moss in 1998 isn’t fair. But in just the past decade, during which wideouts have become a
bigger part of the game than ever? Jefferson’s results stand out:
Player
Odell Beckham
Justin Jefferson
Michael Thomas
A.J. Brown
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill
Season
2014
2020
2016
2019
2014
2016
Rec Yards
1,305
1,400
1,137
1,051
1,051
593
TDs
12
7
9
8
12
9
Fantasy Finish
5th
6th
9th
9th
10th
11th
I should note that Beckham did his rookie-year damage in just 12 games, so that’s still the recent
gold standard. And Jefferson’s fantasy point total would’ve finished “merely” ninth among WRs
two seasons ago. But buddy, this is a great list, it’s great to see Jefferson part of it, and it surely
bodes well for an extraordinary career to come.
10. KEENAN ALLEN LAC
Age: 29 • 6’2” • 211 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
100 Rec • 992 Rec YD • 8 Rec TD • 7.4 AY@T (12th%) • 35 Routes/G • 52% Slot (71st%)
14 Games • 11 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: B+ • Hands: A- • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: ü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 23
’20 Final Rank: 18
’21 Ranks Range: 8-20
How does my eldest son Keenan Allen—whose virtues I’ve extolled for years, whose athletic limitations
are manifest and yet somehow not limitations at all, who’s been a flag player, who is in my freaking
will—how does Keenan Allen not have a podcast nickname? It seems crazy! How have I not accidentally
blurted out, “More like Machinin’ Allen, am I right???” and then decided I am so clever I deserve a Nobel
Prize? Hell, there’s only been one mixtape dedicated to Allen (from @VeryOnlineBears) and it was about
a late-2018 hip injury that never actually cost him games. For heaven’s sake: Alfred Blue has twice as
many mixtapes as Keenan Allen!
There’s not much mystery left about Allen’s football-playing abilities. He’s got the wideout equivalent of
an Old Man’s Game, but it just works. I have one play for you to look up and get a sense of this guy’s
oeuvre: Week 7 against the Jaguars, 0:52 left in the first quarter. He’s in the slot (where he lines up
about half the time), pre-snap motion and a single-high safety tells everyone it’s man coverage, Allen
gets space from press coverage with just the tiniest two-footed jab, he’s a half-step open and takes it
deep, probably a throw that leads him would be complete but Justin Herbert puts it to the outside, and
Allen rocks corner C.J. Henderson to sleep while pivoting mid-stride and reaching behind himself to
make the acrobatic grab. He doesn’t outrun you, he doesn’t outstrong you, he just beats you.
Does it help that Herbert looked like a future star in his rookie year? Absolutely. I’m so stoked about
Herbert, I’m tempted to take another shot on uber-tease Mike Williams. But the reason Allen is third in
receptions over the past four years combined (behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas) is
that he’s just always open. If you’re concerned he doesn’t compare to the league’s big-play artists, that’s
because he doesn’t: over those same four seasons, he only has 16 catches that traveled 20+ air yards.
(Tyreek Hill has 56.) Understand you’re getting the best possession receiver in the game, and you’ll be
perfectly happy. NOW PLEASE HELP ME FIGURE OUT A NICKNAME.
11. CHRIS GODWIN TB
Age: 25 • 6’1” • 209 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
65 Rec • 840 Rec YD • 7 Rec TD • 9.9 AY@T (48th%) • 35 Routes/G • 62% Slot (81st%)
12 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: B+ • Hands: A- • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 7
’20 Final Rank: 30
’21 Ranks Range: 10-24
Godwin finished 2019 as fantasy’s overall #2 wideout, and hoo boy, did his boosters like to tell you
about it. “I mean this guy is the truth! Look at him truck Aqib Talib on a wide receiver screen! We’ve
never seen a dude with this kind of open-field strength!” To fail to see Godwin’s amazing third season
coming was a character flaw of unforgiveable proportions. “I mean, are you using your eyes???”
I should say: I think Godwin is very good. What makes him a fantasy starter is the same thing we
like about A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel: middle-of-the-field strength and after-the-catch ruination,
especially against zone defenses. In the very pit of my heart, though, I still don’t actually believe any of
those guys are a great NFL team’s #1 receiver. And that’s okay! You don’t have to be in that stratus to be
quite useful for fantasy! But my point in last year’s Almanac—as I took my lumps for calling Godwin a
potential bust in a year when he finished as the WR2—was that without Jameis Winston’s wacky waving
Bortles-esque comeback stats padding his dossier, Godwin would be a bit of an unknown. Cousin Josh
and I agreed on the podcast that neither of us would draft Godwin in the second round, even though we
understand why his fans felt differently. Tom Brady runs a more efficient ship, and usually doesn’t need
a Winstonian flop-around fourth quarter that makes everybody’s day look better.
We probably never got a fair test of this theory. Godwin hurt a hamstring (and maybe suffered a
concussion) Week 1 and missed most of a month, then fractured a finger and needed surgery in
November. Antonio Brown joining the Buccaneers in Week 9 also presented legit target competition
to both Godwin and Mike Evans. I maintain that while Godwin is an absolute handful when he’s got
the ball, he’s not really the straw that stirs Tampa’s drink, and now that the bro-screams of his fanboys
have abated and we can think straight: he’s a bruising, essential part of a great offense playing with the
greatest quarterback in history, and that makes him a rock-solid third-round fantasy pick. Trying to
make him some genre-destroying megastar was always goofy.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I sure would like to get a mulligan on Godwin. I think most people who listen to the
podcast know I’ve always loved him. He missed time in September last year, but I
rode it out, because he’s great. But then he was hurt again Week 8 against the Giants
and I couldn’t do it, I couldn’t wait anymore, I figured he’d get hand surgery and
miss a month, so I traded him away in my big league. And then it turned out he only
missed a week. The owner I traded him to used Godwin against me in Week 11, Monday
night against the Rams, national TV, you better believe I’ve got my popcorn and I’m
watching, and Godwin scores a touchdown and knocks me out of the playoffs. I want
to get him back on my team, so I can be in his good graces. I almost feel like maybe
there’s a personal vendetta Godwin has against me now and I want to make it right.”
12. ALLEN ROBINSON CHI
Pod nickname:
HOF Jacket
Age: 28 • 6’2” • 220 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
102 Rec • 1,250 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 9.7 AY@T (44th%) • 36 Routes/G • 28% Slot (45th%)
16 Games • 9 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: A- • Hands: A • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 11
’20 Final Rank: 12
’21 Ranks Range: 8-24
It’s okay to be Toad The Wet Sprocket.
Hear me out! Toad was a good band! I bought their albums for a decade, saw a couple of their shows,
learned their hits on guitar. I won’t say a bad word about Toad. But they weren’t Nirvana, y’know?
Allen Robinson is a terrific player. He’s big and strong, he’s quite a leaper, and he’s finished as fantasy’s
#12 wideout in back-to-back seasons with some combination of Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles and Chase
Daniel throwing him the ball. One of my nominees for best catch of 2020 came from Robinson in
Week 1: a full-extension slot route over the middle where he’s almost parallel to the ground and has the
coordination to slap his mitts on either side of the ball while it’s whizzing past him. He’s a contestedcatch monster and no fun to tackle.
Just because something is really really good, though, doesn’t mean it has to be the best. (I’m looking
at you, Cousin Josh.) If Robinson gets attached to an offensive wagon like he did during the ridiculous
Blake Bortles experience with the Jags circa ’15, he can finish as a top-five receiver. But he’s not among
the fastest WRs in the league and I hate to say this but he’s had a tendency to disappear for long
stretches of games over his career. Could that have something to do with the bags of pudding that have
served as his quarterback? Sure. (When Andy Dalton might be the best guy you’ve ever caught passes
from, life hasn’t been fair.) I can’t come down too hard on Robinson for scoring a whopping 43% of his
fantasy points while losing by 10+ points last year, but he’s just never really quite been the kind of dude
who prevents you from falling into that kind of hole in the first place.
The comp I’ve given Robinson for the better part of a decade is Dez Bryant, and Dez was terrific!
Actually, when everything functioned great around him, Dez was quite a bit more productive than
Robinson has been, but I’ll chalk that up to a better surrounding cast. (You may never have thought
Tony Romo was great, but my friend, compared to Nick Foles he was James Brown at the Apollo.) Yet
was Dez ever the best? Even at his tippety-top you compared him to Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones and
A.J. Green and Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham and squeaked, “Well…?” You can be excellent for
your era without being the best, and that’s Allen Robinson. His QB situation will either get resolved in
favor of run-oriented rookie Justin Fields or the Red Popgun. His coach likes David Montgomery an
awful lot. And he himself is great without being Nirvana. Draft him! Just…not too high.
13. TERRY MCLAURIN WAS
Pod nickname:
McLovin’
Age: 26 • 6’ • 210 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
87 Rec • 1,118 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 9.6 AY@T (42nd%) • 39 Routes/G • 32% Slot (57th%)
15 Games • 9 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: B • Hands: A- • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 20
’20 Final Rank: 23
’21 Ranks Range: 10-24
Through his two NFL seasons, McLaurin has worked his way up the Harris Ladder. As a rookie in
2019, I pegged him as a Super-Deep Sleeper and he finished WR24, which honestly probably wasn’t as
impressive a call as it sounds: it made him usable, but he was up and down. In ’20, I planted a flag on
him and once again McLaurin outplayed how the market valued him, but didn’t quite become a star. But
these two Washington offenses he’s played for have been piloted by Dwayne Haskins, Case Keenum, Kyle
Allen and Alex Smith. An excuse is there, if we want to take it.
Clearly, I’m predisposed to liking McLaurin. Let’s go back to his film and get reacquainted. You probably
already know he’s fast, and that shows up: not so much on deep shots as on manufactured touches and
slot slants. When he gets an angle on you, you’re in trouble. He’s also bigger and stronger than you
might think; he’s not Julio Jones, but he’s also not a finesse player. His signature work of ’20 might’ve
been a Week 9 touchdown against the Giants when he caught a short one among three defenders who
whiffed a little bit, but McLaurin broke an arm tackle and housed it. He shares a lot of qualities with
D.J. Moore, though McLaurin is faster. There are a few impressive moments on his film where he makes
an acrobatic catch or wrests a 50-50 ball from a defender, but not many. I could read that two ways:
either McLaurin isn’t that kind of guy, or his quarterbacks didn’t give him many chances in traffic.
So here’s where the excuse comes in. McLaurin’s 19 targets of 20+ air yards last year tied him for 22nd
in the NFL, and help explain why he hasn’t quite hit the lofty heights I’ve predicted for him so far. Ryan
Fitzpatrick figures to start Week 1 for Washington in ’21, and he never met a tight and/or deep window
he didn’t try to throw into. So the question comes down to: how much do you trust Yosemite Sam?
There’s going to be a faction out there that simply believes in FitzMagic, and might call McLaurin a top10 fantasy receiver. I can’t quite stretch that far for him, but I also see the logic: why not take the very
fast guy who might get to play a full season with FitzPsycho? After all, after the top five WRs, I can’t
be dogmatic about any of the next 20 guys or so. They all have upside, including McLaurin. I just don’t
want you to forget that every WR who’s ever played with Ryan Fitzpatrick has also come with plenty of
downside.
14. D.J. MOORE CAR
Age: 24 • 5’11” • 215 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
66 Rec • 1,193 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 13.6 AY@T (90th%) • 34 Routes/G • 22% Slot (21st%)
15 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: C+ • Hands: B- • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 15
’20 Final Rank: 17
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
Do you think D.J. Moore is tired of it yet? He shows up to team photo shoots and charity events, he
wears black-and-blue to the supermarket, he goes to the dentist for a six-month cleaning…and everyone
he meets goes, “Hey! Nice to meet you, Steve Smith!”
Or maybe this is a Dr. Who regeneration thing, where the Carolina Panthers always have to have exactly
one shortish sparkplug dynamo playing wideout, and when the current one gets mangled, a Time Lord
makes a new one.
Smith was always sort of a rule breaker. He looked like a slot guy. He was fast but not oh-my-God fast.
He didn’t get open because of insane quicks. But he was a furious little ball of want-to. And by golly,
when I watch Moore play, that what I see. Does any wideout under six feet tall run more intermediate
crossing patterns and take more abuse than D.J. Moore? Does any smallish receiver running an arrow
route cause more defensive backs to soil themselves when he gets the edge and goes? My strongest
memory of Moore’s 2020 season was Carolina losing by eight to the Falcons very late in Week 8, third
and 17, Teddy Bridgewater just kind of lofted it up into about seven DBs, and Moore wanted it more. I
can’t think of another receiver I trust to get the absolutely max yardage possible every game I start him
in a fantasy league, regardless of surrounding cast.
In ’21, that cast is still floundering to find a quarterback, unless you consider Sam Darnold a sure
thing. He has a bigger arm than Bridgewater, but significantly less of a clue. Curtis Samuel is gone,
Robby Anderson’s still around, and Carolina drafted Terrace Marshall in the second round. It’s kind of a
whirlwind passing attack that I don’t trust very much, except I just trust Moore. I’m not sure he’s a truly
great player, and if I were building an NFL team, I might have a hard time deciding whether to pay him
as a pure #1 wideout. (Weirdly—see below—he only has 10 combined touchdown receptions in three
seasons.) For fantasy, though, I’m awfully content if Moore is my #2 WR. Now get in the TARDIS.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
How common is a three-year TD drought like Moore’s
to start his career?
Of the 32 wideouts who have at least 200 catches over the past three years combined, only D.J.
Moore failed to surpass 10 TDs. It’s weird! I don’t look at Moore’s game and think it can’t translate
to the red zone or the end zone, but the truth is that he’s got just 19 end-zone targets in that
three-year span, also known as nine fewer than David Moore. Since 2001, here are the wideouts
with 200+ receptions in their first three years who scored the fewest touchdowns:
Player
Davone Bess
D.J. Moore
Andre Johnson
Kendall Wright
Jarvis Landry
Brandon Marshall
Stefon Diggs
Seasons
2008-’10
2018-’20
2003-’05
2012-’14
2014-’16
2006-’08
2015-’17
Team
Dolphins
Panthers
Texans
Titans
Dolphins
Broncos
Vikings
Receptions
209
208
208
215
288
226
200
TDs
8
10
12
12
13
15
15
I dunno. I can’t parse this list and come up with a doomsday scenario for Moore. Do I hope he’s
not Davone Bess or Kendall Wright? Sure, but those guys played in the slot more than Moore.
I’m old enough to remember when the nascent fantasy community was positive Andre Johnson
lacked some essential quality that would help him score TDs, and he went on to high single
digits annually for half a decade. Bottom line: this is weird. I think it’s more fluke than disqualifier.
15. JULIO JONES TEN
Age: 32 • 6’3” • 220 lbs • Injury: 8
2020 Stats:
51 Rec • 771 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 11.9 AY@T (71st%) • 32 Routes/G • 24% Slot (30th%)
9 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+? • Elusiveness: B+? • End Zone: A • Hands: B+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 3
’20 Final Rank: 53
’21 Ranks Range: 1-30
I was going to write a Research Project for Julio’s profile evaluating whether going into your 11th
season makes a big wide receiver fantasy output unlikely. But I’ll save the pixels. The answer is no. In
Year 11 of his career, Marvin Harrison did 95/1,366/12. Terrell Owens did 85/1,180/13 (and was even
more amazing in Year 12: 81/1,355/15). Randy Moss in Year 12 did 83/1,264/13. Julio is probably
getting close to the time when he can no longer be a top-five WR; historically speaking, it starts to get
dicier in Years 13 and 14. But if he’s medically right in 2021, Jones has many NFL graybeards he can
emulate, and reassert his dominance.
And that’s the question nobody can answer. After a six-season run you could put up against nearly
any wideout in league history, Julio hurt a hammy in Week 2 of ’20 and was in and out of the lineup
thereafter. That was particularly vexing, because there were times he looked healed and ready to rock:
running and cutting hard and stiffarming guys and putting up big numbers. (He actually finished 12th
among all WRs in fantasy points per game! And this was his disastrous year!) But after another tweak in
Week 11, we only saw him once more all season. Maybe the Falcons sat him so they could draft a topfive tight end. But part of it was probably also Father Time.
So after getting his great big contract dumped for a second-round NFL Draft pick, Jones lands with
the Titans. Ryan Tannehill’s not great. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown get tons of work. How this will
work out is pure Category 2: hundreds of articles and interviews will be posted in which the writer/
speaker purports to be sure about what Julio has left, but we won’t know until he plays. And even then:
a good September followed by injuries or lowered usage doesn’t help fantasy teams much. A.J. Brown is
a fraction of prime Julio. Were I sure Prime Julio was walking through that door, I’d flipflop the Titans
WR ranks right now. There’s nobody left on my receiver list who has the potential upside Jones does.
But he’s already picked up a leg injury in the first week of training camp, and Titans coaches
have told reporters they’ll have to “manage” Julio all season. Taken by themselves, none of these
would be enough to budge a Julio Jones rank. But the overall situation means I don’t think I
could take him in the third round anymore. As of the first Almanac update, it looks more like
Round 4 for me.
16. TYLER LOCKETT SEA
Age: 29 • 5’10” • 182 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
100 Rec • 1,054 Rec YD • 10 Rec TD • 9.7 AY@T (45th%) • 36 Routes/G • 59% Slot (78th%)
16 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/5 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: A • End Zone: B+ • Hands: B- • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 16
’20 Final Rank: 11
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
A lot of things in this job make you feel old. Here’s one I didn’t expect. Somehow, Tyler Lockett has
been in the NFL since 2015, and I wasn’t aware that his father is Kevin Lockett. Good lord: Kevin
Lockett retired in ’03, when he was the same age Tyler Lockett is now! What in the wide wide world of
wormholes is going on here? This isn’t some dude who played for the Aikman Cowboys. For heaven’s
sake, Kevin was on the Jets with Santana Moss! Okay, yes, it turns out Kevin had Tyler when he was 18,
so that makes me feel a little better. But only a little! Next you’ll tell me Harry Styles’s son is a goalie in
the Nashville Predators’ system. Great prospect. Awesome hair.
Entering his seventh season, the younger Lockett is a made guy. I loved him as a prospect and his
career was slow getting going, but the past three years he’s been a rock, finishing 11th, 15th and 11th
in receiver fantasy points. Doug Baldwin’s premature retirement may have been the match to light this
fuse, because Lockett has discovered himself as a slot weapon: even during times he struggled on the stat
sheet in ’20, he’d still get deep shots from Russell Wilson and get tackled at the 1. His speed makes him
a fantasy starter and that’s no longer much of an argument.
But he is not the featured player in Seattle. That baton has been passed. Superman plays over on
the other side. DK Metcalf got 33 targets that traveled 20+ air yards and Lockett got 16, which
would’ve been difficult to imagine a few years ago. Lockett’s main NFL skill is his long speed, and he
finds himself on a squad with someone even faster who’s also about 50 pounds heavier. The Seahawks
manufacture touches for Lockett. They give him reverses and screens…I mean, the guy had 100 catches!
He’s really good, and fortunately we’re no longer arguing with crutchsters about how this team is “toorun-heavy” to sustain two fantasy-relevant WRs. Tyler Lockett has never missed a game in his career
(and he hurt an ankle and got kicked in the head in Week 13 last year, but kept playing) and will give
us a few blow-up games in ’21. Really solid pick. Better than his dad ever was. But not DK.
17. AMARI COOPER DAL
Pod nickname:
That’s Amari!
Age: 27 • 6’1” • 210 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
92 Rec • 1,114 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 8.8 AY@T (27th%) • 36 Routes/G • 26% Slot (41st%)
16 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: A • End Zone: B • Hands: C • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 12
’20 Final Rank: 19
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
How many more years do you need me to write some avant garde Amari Cooper profile in which I
compare his week-by-week performance to some obscure poem or, like, getting drilled in the nards? For
the second straight season he didn’t miss a game, but that never stops Cooper from limping around out
there and vanishing from the box score. Four games of 100+ receiving yards. Three games of failing to
reach 25 receiving yards. There were extenuating circumstances I’ll get to in a moment, but it’s a mighty
familiar story. That’s Amari!
But because Dak Prescott broke his ankle in Week 5, it was also Andy Dalton for 11 games. With
Prescott healthy again, with Cooper once again proving that he’s Mr. Chutes & Ladders…why would I
rank him seven spots lower this year compared to last? Take it, Elliott Smith:
Walk through thick mud
Looking for new blood
Thinking I heard your name
What’s different in Dallas is that Michael Gallup isn’t the main threat to Cooper any longer. The new
blood is CeeDee Lamb, and he’s good. I can’t get him ahead of Cooper in my ranks just yet, but the
temptation is strong. Lamb ran 90% out of the slot last year so unsurprisingly his average depth of
target was among the NFL’s lowest, but the moment that changes? I don’t see anything about Lamb’s
game that stops him from being a downfield weapon, too.
What I see coming down the pike for Cooper is a lot like what just happened to Julio Jones. As soon as
2022, I think the Cowboys are going to look at Cooper and assess whether he’s worth $22 million a
year and realize he isn’t, and that they have a natural alpha replacement in-house. I think Cooper gets
his salary dumped on the cheap next summer just like Julio did. (Cooper’s cap hits become way more
manageable next year, too, and he’ll be four years younger than Julio, so maybe he’ll fetch a better draft
pick. I tend to doubt it, though.) None of that should affect what Cooper gives you on the field in ’21,
provided his ankle is okay after surgery (something we’ll watch through August...he supposedly won’t
even start practicing until partway through the month). He’s silky smooth and streaky as hell: an elite
route-runner who occasionally loses the thread. If you can identify his stinkers beforehand and replace
him in your lineup, you’re a genius and I want to become your acolyte. Otherwise, Cooper’s season-long
numbers will always look better than the experience of owning him.
18. ROBERT WOODS LAR
Age: 29 • 6’ • 195 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
90 Rec • 936 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 6.7 AY@T (8th%) • 35 Routes/G • 42% Slot (67th%)
16 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 7 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: C+ • Hands: A • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 14
’20 Final Rank: 13
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
By the end of the Jared Goff Era, you could see Sean McVay desperately trying to blow air into the
CPR dummy. Whatever McVay’s ideal offense is, that wasn’t it: bells and whistles and jet motion and
screens and pitchbacks and reverses…often in the service of three-yard passes. Whenever L.A. faced a
good defense, you could tell coaches had screamed at Goff all week to get rid of the bleepin’ ball. In
retrospect, the entire Rams team in 2020 was the Tristan-Thompson-Getting-Yelled-At meme.
Matt Stafford comes with his own issues, but I think you can convincingly argue that an inability to
work through progressions and be aggressive under pressure don’t number among them. And that means
it’s tough to know which lessons we’ve learned over the past few years will apply in ’21. Frankly, the
more McVay had to baby Goff, the better it seemed to be for Robert Woods: he’s transformed into one
of the league’s true Swiss Army ballers, capable of doing exactly the right thing no matter where you ask
him to run. All the motion and misdirection often led to Woods catching the ball in space and getting
what he could. That’s fine. He’s not an elite athlete. Cooper Kupp is bigger and (when he’s healthy)
stronger. But Woods is just sort of better.
The many, many hats Woods wears in his receiver room has included primary deep-threat receiver. But
to be honest? It’s not really his game, and I think the Rams know it, which is why they drafted speedy
Van Jefferson in the second round in ’20 (he had 19 rookie-year catches, so obviously the jury’s not
in) and signed DeSean Jackson this winter. Stafford’s arm is still an A+ and to reap the best of what he
sows, you need a downfield game, and not one that lives via misdirection and throwbacks. We’ve seen
a high concentration of the Rams’ WR work go to Woods and Kupp the last few seasons and I’m sure
they’ll both continue to be high-volume players in ’21, but I also expect someone else to get on the
board deep every so often. If he’s healthy, Woods is getting you 90/1,000/6. But he probably doesn’t
have more ceiling than that.
19. DIONTAE JOHNSON PIT
Age: 25 • 5’10” • 183 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
88 Rec • 923 Rec YD • 7 Rec TD • 8.0 AY@T (14th%) • 35 Routes/G • 14% Slot (8th%)
15 Games • 10 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 7 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: A- • End Zone: B • Hands: D • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 36
’20 Final Rank: 26
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
I was right! I was right I was right I was right! So how come it feels so wrong?
Johnson was the flag player I got the most grief for last year. How could I possibly rank him as a top36 wideout? Didn’t I understand that Ben Roethlisberger was coming back from an exploded elbow?
And that JuJu Smith-Schuster was amazing? And Chase Claypool was a size/speed monster? How could
I stick my neck out for this pipsqueak? The situation was never going to allow him to get above the
59/680/5 line he posted as a rookie!
The Steelers saw what I saw. Johnson’s always open. Okay, maybe he’s never going to be Antonio Brown,
but he’s in the phylum. Steelers fans know who that pass offense pivots around. Johnson’s footwork is
unreal. He sets you up with some of the best releases in the game, and his double-moves fool everyone.
You can pick any game. If you isolate on this little dude, you’ll never stop smiling. He’s godawful quick,
yes, but it’s his attention to his feet. Corners are visibly shaken when he lays on moves. I was right I was
right I was right, Diontae Johnson has it in him to be a star.
If he could catch the ball.
His NFL-worst 12 drops don’t tell the whole story. I believe part of Pittsburgh’s fade down the stretch
is attributable to a loss of offensive confidence, and part of that was everyone walking around with their
heads down waiting for Diontae Johnson’s next blunder-handed monstrosity. I think it might’ve been
the very first offensive play of the year that Johnson fumbled a jet sweep, and it never got better. I’m
telling you, if JuJu is there to catch glorified handoffs in the middle of the field and Claypool is there
to explode with a bomb catch every other week, Diontae is there to do everything else. I still think the
Steelers know what they have, and the big target workload will keep growing. But dude. Catch the ball.
20. CEEDEE LAMB DAL
Age: 22 • 6’2” • 198 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
74 Rec • 935 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 9.2 AY@T (35th%) • 31 Routes/G • 90% Slot (98th%)
16 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: B+ • Hands: C+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 46
’20 Final Rank: 20
’21 Ranks Range: 13-30
Lamb was my favorite rookie receiver going into the 2020 NFL Draft, and he’s my second-favorite
coming out of the 2020 season. (Was Justin Jefferson a rookie? Are we sure he didn’t teleport in from
his Hall-of-Fame speech in 2040?) Brett Kollmann and I did a podcast list in late December counting
down five young players who hadn’t fully blossomed yet whose film we like, and Lamb was my #1
choice. In September, Cousin Josh did a tongue-in-cheek list of five players he’d changed his opinion on
after one game, and Lamb made that list. This isn’t complicated. If you watched the kid play when Dak
Prescott was healthy, and you remember what rookie WRs usually look like, Lamb made you take notice.
I enjoyed doing a rundown of Lamb’s Week 5 against the Giants (before Dak got hurt), and here’s a
summary. His first target, lightning-quick out cut from the slot, well-thrown ball, Lamb dropped it.
Next, a medicine ball Dak hoisted into a zone with three guys around Lamb, he grabbed it anyway, took
illegal contact to the helmet, but hung on. Next a flare route from the slot, an okay move after the catch,
nothing real special. Next a poorly-thrown end-zone crosser from the 10 which Lamb tried to twist in
midair and grab but couldn’t. Next a deep post where Prescott held the deep safety and lofted a nice
one, and Lamb ran for another 10 yards. Next an audibled slant where Lamb figured out where he was
supposed to run and got a small gain. Next a silky-smooth release against press man to get an advantage
then another medicine ball but Lamb gets up, grabs it, takes another illegal contact to the helmet. And
then an option route where he cuts upfield uncovered and catches his third ball over 20 yards in 2.5
quarters. What you see is a smart, gliding, tough kid. He just looked ready.
And the Cowboys babied him. With Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in the fold, Lamb ran more than
90% of his routes from the slot, second-most of all qualified WRs behind only Anthony Miller. The
league has changed and we don’t turn up our noses at slot receivers quite as much any more, but you’ll
have to trust me when I tell you there was nothing about what I saw from Lamb that should limit him
to only being a slot player. He’s tall, strong and nasty. My comp for him last summer was DeAndre
Hopkins. I think he’s gonna be a star. I have Cooper ahead of him but my conviction isn’t strong. Gallup
is the third-best of these guys, but also will be heard from. In a couple years, though, this is going to be
CeeDee Lamb’s receiving corps.
21. ADAM THIELEN MIN
Pod nickname:
Hooked On A Thielen
Age: 31 • 6’2” • 200 lbs • Injury: 7
2020 Stats:
74 Rec • 925 Rec YD • 14 Rec TD • 11.5 AY@T (62nd%) • 32 Routes/G • 26% Slot (40th%)
15 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: C+ • End Zone: A • Hands: B+ • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 10
’20 Final Rank: 7
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
Cousin Josh’s personal muse Dolly Parton said: “They just use your mind, and they never give you
credit.” Dang, Dolly, you got a point there.
I talked a lot about Adam Thielen last summer. Pretty sure I had him on every team. Got a lot of
quizzical looks when I ranked him WR10 and made him a flag player. Wasn’t I employing one of the
fantasy world’s oldest crutch arguments, the idea that a wideout’s value ebbs or flows dramatically based
on the other WRs his team employs? Wasn’t I over-relying on Stefon Diggs’s departure from Minnesota
to endorse Thielen with such vigor?
Did a single solitary soul write the yacht to thank me for Thielen’s 14-touchdown season?
Actually maybe. I don’t remember. But Thielen was a league winner in 2020, and so maybe you opened
this Almanac expecting to see me double down and call my shot again. Turns out, if you’ve made it
this far, you already know I put a different Vikings WR at #10. In fact, I am absolutely pulling a Mark
Ingram. I rode Ingram to much filthy lucre in ’19, and then turned around last year and said my
enthusiasm had waned. That’s where I am with Thielen. I think he’ll still be a fantasy starter? But when
Josh and I did our way-too-early bust lists for ’21, Thielen appeared on mine. I’m not sure whether
people are actually going to take the bait this year and draft him as a top-10 wideout. But I wouldn’t.
Yes, this is partly that I fell in love with Justin Jefferson. It’s also partly that we got away with something
in ’20: 14 TDs on 74 catches is maybe a little fluky, and 13 of 14 TDs coming inside the red zone adds
an extra wince. Hey, Thielen’s always been a total handful in the end zone: fast and strong and a good
jumper with good hands. If someone had to score 13 red-zone TDs, I’m not shocked it’s Thielen. But it’s
the second-most any WR has scored in the past 13 years. (Davante Adams had 14 last season.) Thielen
is 31 and Jefferson is 22 and I just believe in the kid. Thielen also was coming off an injury-ravaged
’19 which gave him great value, and that’s no longer the case. Sometimes it’s just best to let flag guys
go. That’s made slightly easier by Thielen suffering a thigh bruise in late August, though nobody
seems to expect it to factor into his Week 1 availability.
22. COOPER KUPP LAR
Age: 28 • 6’ 2” • 208 lbs • Injury: 9
2020 Stats:
92 Rec • 974 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 6.3 AY@T (7th%) • 33 Routes/G • 53% Slot (72nd%)
15 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: A- • Hands: B+ • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 17
’20 Final Rank: 34
’21 Ranks Range: 13-30
Matthew Stafford replacing Jared Goff is a breath of fresh air for any Rams receiver. And Cooper
Kupp at his best has been a top-five fantasy wideout. By now his repertoire is well-established: you’re
getting about 90 catches—about two-thirds of them out of the slot—you’re getting a big dude with some
jitterbug after the catch, and if you’re hoping for downfield work and a big season yardage total, you’re
probably barking up the wrong tree. He’s a T.J. Houshmandzadeh type, and in the right year, that works
great. I had Kupp as a flag player in 2019 and he finished WR4.
But you know what I don’t love hearing? That a guy who tore an ACL and missed half of ’18 had two
separate knee issues in ’20 and required surgery this winter. If Kupp seemed part of the problem last
year, it might’ve been because he was limping around with bursitis, and then he actually missed the
playoff game in which the Packers eliminated the Rams with a different knee injury that required him to
go under the knife. It’s too early in a 28-year-old WR’s career to declare he’ll never be the same because
of persistent knee issues. But it’s not too early to worry about the possibility, and factor it into our
thinking.
When he’s right, Kupp is a seam touchdown waiting to happen, and also an occasional menace after the
catch. When he’s wrong, it looks like Week 6 against the Niners, when he couldn’t track a deep ball
over his shoulder that would’ve gone for a long touchdown and later flat out dropped a short one in the
end zone, or Week 8 against the Dolphins when I counted two dropped balls that the NFL stat keepers
didn’t qualify as official drops. His bad plays from ’20 weren’t like him, and it’s probably overly facile
of me to tie it all back to knee issues…but the alternative is that he just made a bunch of bad plays. I
guess I’m chickening out a little. Robert Woods is better, and deep work might start going to the likes of
DeSean Jackson or Van Jefferson. Kupp has bounced back before! But this time I think I need to see it.
23. BRANDON AIYUK SF
Age: 23 • 6’1” • 206 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
60 Rec • 748 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 9.4 AY@T (40th%) • 35 Routes/G • 22% Slot (22nd%)
12 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: B • Hands: B- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 52
’20 Final Rank: 33
’21 Ranks Range: 15-30
Kyle Shanahan looks forward to our robot overlords. In Shanny Junior’s opinion, the less thinking
humanity has to do, the better. For that reason, he’s attempting to compile a football team entirely
comprised of running backs.
You know all about the guys listed at running back. There are 17 of them, and you’ll never know who to
start. The Niners just drafted a quarterback who’s part running back. And they’re assembling a receiving
corps of dudes who delight in breaking arm tackles and trucking safeties in the open field. Jalen Hurd
had 637 career collegiate carries. Deebo Samuel spent his rookie year (2019) emulating Julius Jones
once the ball was in his hand. And then Brandon Aiyuk spent his rookie year looking like Kerryon
Johnson. I’m tempted to compare Aiyuk to A.J. Brown, because that’s the style of player he is. But
honestly: his closest comp I can think of is Deebo.
Most of the good work Aiyuk did for bad QBs in ’20 came via just being a sicko athlete. Remember
his hurdling touchdown on the dead run against the Eagles in Week 4? How about his fourth-down
rushing touchdown from the 2 Week 15 against the Cowboys? Aiyuk isn’t crazy-fast and he’s not one
of these unmatchable size monsters like Julio Jones or Mike Evans. But he’s part of this mini-innovation
at WR, which acknowledges defenses play more zone than ever and therefore maybe being the quickest
and most precise route runner is less important, and what matters most is YAC. Deebo is even more of
a YAC crusher than Aiyuk because he gets treated even less like a wideout…but Aiyuk broke a ton of
tackles. And I should also say: there are polished routes on his rookie tape. Short touchdowns against
Seattle and Buffalo showed finesse as well as power: routes that gave him a little space, and all he needs
is a little.
The exciting thing about positionless football is you never know where the dagger will come from. The
difficult part about that is Kyle Shanahan obviously doesn’t play fantasy. I’m really only putting Aiyuk
ahead of Samuel because he showed a bit more as an actual WR, but that just might be wrong. I don’t
think either of these young turks projects as what you think of as a “true #1.” But Shanny Junior’s okay
with that. He’s busy trying to figure out how to get a converted running back in at kicker.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
Brandon Aiyuk is just great with the ball in his hands. He’s the more complete version
of Deebo. What a weapon he is after the catch. I am fully in on Aiyuk. He’s like one of
the new guys who arrives on Love Island. The new hunky guy gets on the island and
everyone wants to get to know him. It’s electrifying. It’s like, ‘Tell me more, new guy!’
The ladies all want to be with him. The cameras can’t get enough of him. On Love
Island, they call it grafting. I think that’s British for flirting. Everyone grafts on the new
guy. I wanna graft on Brandon Aiyuk.”
24. ODELL BECKHAM CLE
Pod nickname:
ODB
Age: 29 • 5’11” • 198 lbs • Injury: 13
2020 Stats:
23 Rec • 319 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 13.8 AY@T • 24 Routes/G • 15% Slot
7 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 8
’20 Final Rank: 76
Film Grades:
Speed: A-? • Elusiveness: A+? • End Zone: B+ • Hands: A+ • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
’21 Ranks Range: 6-36
There aren’t too many professional athletes you can describe with zero words and still have the average
fan know who you’re talking about. ODB is one of ’em: just stand up, lean way back, and stick one arm
ridiculously behind your head, and everybody knows you’re talking about one of the least plausible
catches in NFL history.
Unfortunately, that iconic catch against the Cowboys during Beckham’s rookie year took place nearly
seven years ago. See? You’re old, too.
Beckham is still capable of highlights. In 2020, he had some doozies. He had a rushing touchdown in
Week 4 against the Cowboys on a reverse that should’ve been a 10-yard loss, but ODB turned on the
jets, got around the edge, and made fools of the entire Dallas defense. He scored Week 2 against the
Bengals on a vintage out-and-up down the field. He made an absolutely impossible catch Week 5 against
the Colts, getting yanked out of the sky as he lunged for a deep ball, reaching out one arm and somehow
having the ball land atop his elbow as he hit the ground. You really can’t argue Beckham is bad. He’s one
of the most coordinated dudes at the position, period.
But his past four seasons have been a wreck. In ’17 he broke his ankle after playing only four games.
In ’18, he missed December because of a quad injury. In ’19, he played the full campaign but produced
poor results and had sports hernia surgery after the season. And in ’20, he tore an ACL in Week 7 and
now will race to return in something like his usual form this September. What began as a surefire Hallof-Fame career will now almost certainly not be that, and his body has taken so much punishment that
it’s fair to wonder what levels he can bounce back to. Healthy in the first two months of ’21, Beckham
had given us highlights, but he hadn’t given us top-notch fantasy production. No Browns receiver had.
During the time ODB was healthy, Baker Mayfield didn’t eclipse 250 yards passing. Normally, that
would be a great place for us to swoop in and take advantage of knuckleheads who’ll say, “Well, the
Browns are just too run-oriented for any Cleveland WR to be usable.” I think that’s probably wrong. But
after these several years of Beckham’s carnage, oof, it’s tough for me to believe he’ll stay fully healthy to
take advantage of the crutch arguments flung his way. I’d rather draft him as a luxury item than a muststart, and if that means I don’t get him this year, I think I’m okay with it.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
You didn’t think I’d let another Almanac go by without ripping this guy a new one
again, did you? I feel like Beckham is the good guy turned heel. It’s like when Hulk
Hogan left WWF and joined WCW as part of the New World Order. Instead of actually
wrestling, he spent most of the time dyeing his beard and stubble black. Hogan was
done with wrestling, and I feel like Beckham is kind of done with football. He’s into
wearing crop-tops on Instagram now. It’s only a matter of time before he puts out a
music video with Jarvis Landry and Kevin Nash. I never say I’ll never draft a player; if
the price gets low enough, I’ll draft anyone. But given where I know Beckham’s gonna
go, I’m not drafting him in 2021 or probably ever again.”
25. ROBBY ANDERSON CAR
Pod nickname:
The String Bean
Age: 28 • 6’3” • 190 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
95 Rec • 1,096 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 9.4 AY@T (38th%) • 32 Routes/G • 32% Slot (55th%)
16 Games • 9 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: C- • Hands: B- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 45
’20 Final Rank: 27
’21 Ranks Range: 24-36
Reunion time! Come on, it’s reunion time! Not enough pundit puffery has been dedicated to the
harmonic reconvergence in Charlotte this year! No, not Christian McCaffrey and his (cough!) vitamins.
It’s Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson!
C’mon guys! This’ll be as cool as the several-to-many Guns N’ Roses reunions! And in this case, the
individuals involved aren’t on record saying they’d rather die than play together again!
All right, I’ll admit that as reunions go, DarnDerson II: Electric Boogaloo doesn’t quicken the pulse like,
say, Fran Tarkenton coming back to the Vikings or Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer locking souls again.
But Anderson became a pretty consistent WR3 running deep for Gang Green—he finished as high as
WR17 in 2017—and caught roughly a touchdown every other game from Darnold, even post-spleen
and post-mono. Darnold has a good arm…certainly better than Teddy Bridgewater’s. He can continue to
unlock Anderson as one of the league’s premier deep threats.
Of course, what got added to Anderson’s repertoire in ’20 was volume. The Panthers used him in more
diverse ways last season than the Jets ever did: skinny posts, shallow crossers, hook routes, screens…
our String Bean is all grown up! Anderson isn’t a physical player and we don’t want him taking too
many open-field hits, but as Carolina tailored their offense to work with Bridgewater, Anderson was
less a specialist than he’s ever been. And the Panthers really didn’t take many deep shots because Teddy’s
arm is on the weaker side…Darnold’s relocation benefits nobody more than it does Anderson. From
’16 to ’19, Robby was a top-five wideout in air yards at the target (a whopping 14.8, behind only
DeSean Jackson, Mike Williams and Will Fuller) and last year his 9.4 was outside the top 50. Sure,
Curtis Samuel’s departure and rookie Terrace Marshall’s drafting could change the dynamic, but boy,
I sure expect Anderson’s deep looks to return for as long as Darnold is healthy (and as long as the
hamstring problem that dogged him in camp goes away). Anderson was #8 in the league in targets
in ’20, and that number might come down. But as long as he’s getting six or seven per game, Darnold-
to-Anderson could give you a week-by-week appetite for destruction.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Who are the best WRs of the past 20 years as tall and
skinny as Anderson?
Um...there aren’t any? Truly, Anderson is carving out a uniquely string-beany place in recent NFL
history. He’s listed at 6’3” and 190 pounds. For my search, I included anyone 6’2” or taller and 195
pounds or lighter. Since ’00, here’s who we got:
Player
Robby Anderson
Ashley Lelie
Allen Hurns
Todd Pinkston
Seth Roberts
Jerome Simpson
Tajae Sharpe
Seasons
2016-present
2002-’08
2014-’19
2000-’04
2015-present
2008-’15
2016-present
Yards
4,155
3,749
3,380
2,635
2,128
2,058
1,167
TDs
23
15
25
14
15
9
8
Best Fantasy Finish
17th
21st
15th
29th
55th
47th
77th
When the main contemporary we can find for you is Ashley Lelie, you are truly a trailblazer. I
don’t know if this means Anderson is some kind of fluke who’ll inevitably disappoint us...it might
mean that he’s found teams willing to treat him as a genre-bender: a taller light guy who needs
to be treated more like a DeSean Jackson type. If you’d have told me the Panthers were going to
make Anderson a top-10 target guy last year, I’d have been concerned he’d get hurt. But the NFL
is more specialized every year and apparently if you let this kid settle down against zones and
hopefully not take massive hits, he can last.
26. JA’MARR CHASE CIN
Age: 21 • 6’ • 208 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
torry holt
’21 Ranks Range: 12-40 • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
If Ja’Marr Chase flops, there’s a paper trail. He’s a one-season college wonder who sat out 2020
because of COVID and didn’t get a proper NFL Combine to have his astonishing Pro Day numbers
independently verified. We’ve only ever seen him playing for a spectacular national championship LSU
offense that left opponents reeling. If Chase gets to the pros and turns out to be Justin Blackmon or
Michael Westbrook or Charles Rogers (all top-five picks who never played more than 25 NFL games),
well, a subset of know-it-alls will put their noses in the air and said they told us so.
Not many of us think that’ll happen. Chase has awesome feet; he comes into the league already having
shown he can set up defensive backs with a variety of routes and then back them up by being strong at
the catch. He’s not huge. He’s not a zippy change-of-direction open-field runner. And he’s not the fastest
wideout in his class. But as much as I love what I saw from Justin Jefferson in his rookie season, Chase
was a better prospect. He has that thing we’ve imagined at various times for Amari Cooper and Sammy
Watkins over the past several years; they were also top-five picks and the talent they’ve displayed as
pros has justified their selections, but neither has reached expectations because of something lacking.
(In Watkins’s case, it’s health. In Cooper’s, it’s consistency.) What we imagine for guys at this nosebleed
level of collegiate studliness is the all-around ability to take an offense by the scruff of its neck and will
it to wins. Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green were also top-five overall
selections. Chase doesn’t fit the freak physical dimensions of those four superstars, but hopes for him
are nearly as high.
Will it happen for him as a rookie? I think so, but we can’t really know before the season begins.
He’s reuniting with his college quarterback Joe Burrow on a team that has another excellent young
prospect—Tee Higgins—but also definitely has room for an alpha. The Bengals might be ready for a
level jump on offense, but they also might not be, with Burrow and Joe Mixon returning from injuries
and the offensive line still mid-metamorphosis. Higgins also showed enough to make me think he’s
not vanishing. But if I’m comparing a kid to Torry Holt—one of the all-time gamers and a borderline
Hall-of-Famer—then I’m clearly open to the idea Chase splashes right away. But please catch the ball,
Ja’Marr.
27. CHASE CLAYPOOL PIT
Age: 23 • 6’4” • 238 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
62 Rec • 873 Rec YD • 9 Rec TD • 13.2 AY@T (85th%) • 27 Routes/G • 22% Slot (24th%)
16 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: C+ • End Zone: B+ • Hands: C+ • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 78
’20 Final Rank: 14
’21 Ranks Range: 18-36
The very first target of Claypool’s NFL career made me realize he isn’t Miles Boykin.
That’s always the worry. An Underwear Olympics hero comes into the NFL, and all the hipster doofi
start posting on social media: HOW WILL ANYBODY STOP *THIS* GUY???, along with video of some
6’8” giant dominating his Pop Warner league. Psst. Hey. Dude who foams at the mouth over every
wideout in the NFL Draft. You don’t get to claim credit when one out of every 20 prospects hits.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Devin Duvernay, Taywan Taylor, Hakeem Butler and a dozen others would like
to have a word.
Because of all this noise, it’s hard to know which of the physical freaks can actually play. But that
Monday night of 2020’s Week 1, Claypool ran a sideline fade against Cover-2 and Ben Roethlisberger
threw it too late, but he put it way up out of bounds for safety’s sake…and Claypool spun around mid-
run to grab it and drag all 10 toes for the completion. Great play. In Week 2 against the Broncos, only
three targets, but a straight vertical bomb shot on which he showed pure separation once he and the
DB got about 20 yards downfield. Week 5 against the Eagles is Claypool’s calling-card game: a redzone screen he barreled into the end zone, an end-around run inside the 5 he also scored on, a deep
(uncovered) post for a long score and a different long TD called back for offensive interference. On the
warning side: about a quarter of Claypool’s rookie-year fantasy points game in that one game against
Philly. On the happy side: Miles Boykin sure hasn’t done that!
They call Claypool Mapletron? Well, let’s not get out the anointing oil just yet, but it’s a great start. He’s
as big and fast as advertised, and if he only got four targets per game as a rookie…well, Calvin Johnson
himself only got six. There’s room for growth. For ’21, we hoped JuJu Smith-Schuster wouldn’t be
back in Pittsburgh, possibly opening up a wider variety of slot routes for Claypool. Instead, last year’s
threesome—including Diontae Johnson—returns. We don’t know exactly what that means for Claypool.
There’s a scenario where it doesn’t matter, and he’s ready to leap into pure #1 territory a la DK Metcalf,
provided we’re told his ankle injury that momentarily frightened onlookers is no big deal. But
we also might have to wait at least one more year…and by then, who knows who the quarterback will
be.
28. TEE HIGGINS CIN
Age: 22 • 6’4” • 216 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
67 Rec • 908 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 12.0 AY@T (75th%) • 30 Routes/G • 27% Slot (42nd%)
16 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: C+ • End Zone: A- • Hands: B- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 80
’20 Final Rank: 28
’21 Ranks Range: 20-50
You are the man. Your team made you the 33rd overall pick in 2020. The former stud at your position
in Cincinnati has become a shell of himself. There’s a new #1 overall pick playing quarterback. You have
a pretty dang good rookie season. I mean: come on! Tee Higgins was sitting on top of the world! And
now maybe he’s Pete Best?
The Beatles callously decided to ax Best in favor of more polished Ringo Starr. And the Bengals wound
up with a top-five pick for the second consecutive draft and selected Ja’Marr Chase. I’ll never be the one
to say that means Higgins definitively finds himself on the outside. But if Chase is as good as we think…
well…he’s a better drummer than Tee Higgins.
I liked Higgins’s rookie campaign fine. He’s a strong body-control and long-limbed guy who outmuscled
some of the league’s good corners on longer throws. As the ’20 season wore on, the Bengals gave him
some pitchbacks and reverses to get him going in the open field, and he’s a strong dude: not quite
of that A.J. Brown / Deebo Samuel mode, but not fun to tackle. His best moment of the season came
Week 8 against the Titans, a sideline grab where Burrow scrambles around, Higgins stays alive, Burrow
throws a pass he should not throw, but Higgins goes up and snags it and makes a balletic move to land
in-bounds. After Burrow’s ACL tear, the numbers look okay but the offense felt less sustainable, and the
plays he made mostly came because they were wide open.
If Chase hadn’t come to Cincy, would I rank Higgins much higher than this? I honestly don’t think so.
I’m somewhere in the middle on Higgins. Might he be a deep threat simply because he’s tall? Yes. It
happens. I actually think long term his best role might be playing Big Slot, but Tyler Boyd will definitely
man that position in ’21 (after that, Boyd’s contract is out of guarantees, so we’ll see). Higgins looks
like a good player, but not a freak. He didn’t make great open-field plays as a rookie, he’s not a burner,
and he didn’t show the release or explosiveness out of breaks someone like Michael Thomas has.
When he wins, it’ll have to be with height and physicality and body control…and that can work! But if
Chase instantly proves worthy of a top-five pick, Higgins will find himself off to the side shaking some
maracas right quick.
29. JERRY JEUDY DEN
Age: 22 • 6’2” • 193 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
52 Rec • 856 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 14.5 AY@T (97th%) • 31 Routes/G • 32% Slot (58th%)
16 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: A- • End Zone: C • Hands: D • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 38
’20 Final Rank: 43
’21 Ranks Range: 24-36
We thought Jerry Jeudy would come into the NFL ready to run great routes and get open right away.
It’s what made him the #15 pick in the 2020 draft, and he didn’t disappoint. He’s a controlled, explosive
runner. It was a fourth-quarter basura-time score, but Jeudy’s touchdown Week 9 against the Falcons
illustrates this well. Jeudy split wide left and released quick to the outside, sprinting to top speed in
a heartbeat and causing the DB to turn and run, and then stopped in a flash, creating three yards of
separation in a fraction of a second. In his rookie year, the kid’s feet looked fast and coordinated.
But my God. His hands.
The NFL officially docked him for eight drops in ’20, but that’s not right. It was more. More than any
other receiver in the NFL last year, Jerry Jeudy got in his own head. He was Ben Simmons. He was a
human hiccup. He had yips like you read about. Courtland Sutton got hurt early. DaeSean Hamilton
and K.J. Hamler didn’t look like pros. The Broncos stunk and trailed big often. And in the face of this
gaping opportunity, Jeudy shrunk. I’m not trying to tell you Drew Lock is great, but we can’t blame a
quarterback for duck hands.
So: it’s one year. Amari Cooper—the player I compared Jeudy to in last year’s Almanac—came into
the league allowing many miscellaneous household implements to ricochet off his mitts, but in the
intervening years has curbed the worst of his duck-handedness. Hey, former Denver Bronco Brandon
Marshall really never fixed his atrocious hands, but put up multiple 1,500-yard and double-digit-TD
campaigns. We can’t claim Jeudy’s career is doomed before it even gets going. But I can also refer you to
the likes of Justin Blackmon and Greg Little and Aaron Dobson: high NFL Draft picks whose catching
problems were prime factors in their flameouts. Given how well he moves, Jeudy leaping into the ranks
of reliable young WRs wouldn’t floor anyone. I’m raising him several spots in the final Almanac
update as Sutton apparently still hasn’t been able to do everything he needs to in his return
from a torn ACL. Some have opined that Teddy Bridgewater winning the starting QB job is good
for Jeudy because of Bridgewater’s accuracy and Jeudy’s precision as a route-runner. But all eyes
will be on those mallards attached to Jeudy’s wrists.
30. KENNY GOLLADAY NYG
Age: 28 • 6’4” • 214 lbs • Injury: 12
2020 Stats:
20 Rec • 338 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 15.0 AY@T • 26 Routes/G • 19% Slot
5 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+? • Elusiveness: B-? • End Zone: B+ • Hands: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 6
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 6-30
Let’s dispense with the easy stuff first. The moment someone tells you Kenny Golladay can’t finish as a
WR1 because the Giants will be too run-heavy with Saquon Barkley, you have my permission to climb
aboard the Nevis Catapult—the world’s largest trebuchet, located in New Zealand—and ask if they
would do you a favor and fire you into the sun.
Because we’ve already heard this! Two years ago with the Lions, it was impossible that Golladay could be
a fantasy star because Darrell Bevell was the offensive coordinator, and he once made Russell Wilson cry
or something. And then Kenny G went out and reached 1,190 yards and 11 TDs catching passes from
Jeff Driskell and David Blough for half a season. And then the situation predictors moved on to telling
you Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be a first-round pick. Don’t listen to those guys!
The main reason to be wary of Golladay—a downfield colossus who needs a half-inch of space to do his
Mike Evans impersonation, which is uncanny—is that he’s coming off a serious hip injury that cost him
11 games last season, and then at the start of training camp he pulled a hamstring badly enough
to miss two or three weeks of camp. Sure, the Giants believed in him enough to give him $40 million
guaranteed in free agency, but they’re the Giants. They’re the ones who saw Jason Garrett up close in
the NFC East for 10 years and thought, “YEAH, we could use some of THAT!”
Also: Daniel Jones. I’m not here to tell you the quarterback doesn’t matter, because he does, and I was
certainly among the first people ever inside your ear-bells to say, “Ooh, Daniel Jones is fake,” even as
he went for 24 TDs and 12 INTs as a rookie replacing Eli. Jones gets blitzed all day because he doesn’t
see the field well, but in ’20 he did begin throwing with more anticipation, including four touchdowns
of 20+ yards. The fact that a couple of those deep TDs went to Golden Tate and Dante Pettis tells you
why Golladay will be wearing royal blue. If things click, a repeat of his WR3 ’19 campaign is possible.
But you size up the missed practice time and the continued injuries that may or may not be
related to his hip ailment from ’20, and I can’t keep Golladay rated as a high-level WR2. He
could absolutely go crazy and dominate fantasy, but he could also hobble around all year and
kill you. And by the second Almanac update, he still hasn’t practiced, so I’ve lowered him again.
He absolutely might just not need training camp and be great right away. But we have to pay
attention to negative news.
31. MICHAEL THOMAS NO
Age: 28 • 6’3” • 212 lbs • Injury: 9
2020 Stats:
40 Rec • 438 Rec YD • 0 Rec TD • 9.8 AY@T (47th%) • 27 Routes/G • 29% Slot (47th%)
7 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: A- • Hands: A • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 1
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 6-24
As slightly pudgy bard Jim James of My Morning Jacket once said: “Peanut butter pudding surprise.”
Oh, yeah, and as he also once said:
Ain’t nobody care what’s going on in your mind
But they got their eye on your prize
I’m highly suspicious of you
Three hundred and sixty-five days ago, every toolbag with a Twitter account was doing a WHO YA
GOT??? post asking for the best wideout in the league, and we all answered Michael Thomas. He was
coming off a 149-catch, 1,725-yard season, everybody knew he wasn’t all that fast or quick, but via
strength and size and routes and hands he’d climbed to the top of his profession. If anyone was going
to weather an eventual transition away from Drew Brees in New Orleans, it was gonna be the guy with
more polish than a nail salon.
But 2020 was tough on Thomas. Week 1 against the Bucs, with an 11-point lead inside the Tampa
red zone with under three minutes left in the game, Latavius Murray took an innocuous carry down
to the 5 and rolled onto Thomas’s left ankle, Thomas ran gingerly off the field, and we didn’t see him
again for two months. By the time he returned, Taysom Hill was the quarterback and that presented its
own challenges, but mostly eventually we learned that Thomas’s ankle still hurt, as he went on injured
reserve for Weeks 15 through 17. It was a disaster for a guy universally proclaimed (by me, too!) to be
a first-round fantasy pick.
Thomas is so good at football, I was willing to go back to him again as a WR1 in ’21, even without
Brees. I don’t think he needs a Hall of Famer under center to reclaim alpha status. But in late July we
learned that Thomas waited to undergo ankle surgery until June, and now seems likely to miss the
start of the regular season, and could in fact miss the first month. I admit that sometimes these injury
timelines are set artificially long so the player seems like a hero when he beats the clock. But knowing
what I know now, it would be really tough to go into October having gotten zero games played from
any of my starting fantasy receivers, plus it’s not like his ankle is guaranteed to be fine when he does
return. Thomas’s rank here has upward mobility if we get better news throughout training camp, but for
now I’m having a hard time imagining him as a top-30 WR draftee.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I’ll tell you what Michael Thomas is when he’s healthy. He’s exactly like the safest pizza
in New York, which comes from L&B Spumoni Gardens. Their Grandma Slice is the best
in the city, but people decide they’ll get clever, let’s try the new thing, let’s find the
‘in’ thing. Just do the Grandma Slice at L&B, don’t get fancy. If I could be convinced
he’d play in Week 1, Thomas would still be really safe: he’s such a phenomenal talent
that I wouldn’t care who the Saints QB is. Of course, given his mangled ankle he didn’t
get surgery on until too late in the summer, now I can’t get the Grandma Slice, maybe
for months, and that makes me mad. ‘Hey, let’s all go to Sbarro and puke!”’
32. BRANDIN COOKS HOU
Age: 28 • 5’10” • 183 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
81 Rec • 1,150 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 11.9 AY@T (70th%) • 34 Routes/G • 32% Slot (54th%)
15 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: A+ • End Zone: C • Hands: B • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 28
’20 Final Rank: 16
’21 Ranks Range: 20-36
Here’s a dirty secret from the 2020 game film: Brandin Cooks is still very good! He started slow in
September because of an injured quad that saw him sitting part of the time for the immortal DeAndre
Carter, but from Week 5 forward, Cooks was the #6 wideout in fantasy. I grant you, that kind of stat is
misleading: Cooks racked up 166 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17. But if you’re not a member of
the Brandin Cooks Hate Society—and it is a very large club—you can only come away from Cooks’s first
Houston season marveling that this mouthy little peanut still has afterburners.
He’s an on-field talker, that Mr. Cooks, and maybe that partly explains his peripatetic career: the
Texans are his fourth organization in seven years. He doesn’t miss that many games (he lost Week 14
last season to a neck injury) but is on the injury report a bunch and had his ’19 campaign wrecked by
concussions. He’s obviously never going to be a point-of-the-catch badass or drag a half-dozen tacklers
to paydirt. But he’s a blast! Maybe he’s not quite Tyreek Hill with the ball in his hands, but he’s close.
Too bad he doesn’t play with Patrick Mahomes.
For the moment I’m also assuming he won’t play with Deshaun Watson. If that changes, of course Cooks
would go higher in the WR ranks. Situations matter! The quarterback throwing you the ball matters!
Tyrod Taylor is a game-manager type whose proclivities are a bad match for Cooks, and the other
potential QB candidates—Jeff Driskell and rookie Davis Mills—don’t quicken the pulse, either. Realize,
though, that Will Fuller has left Houston, making Cooks the only homerun hitter in town. The fantasy
market will assume the Texans are destined to be the NFL’s worst team, and maybe they are, but they
will score points and someone on the squad will wind up being fantasy relevant. This is about the lowest
I could possibly get Brandin Cooks. The team discount is baked in. If he stays healthy, he could easily
outperform this rank.
33. JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER PIT
Pod nickname:
Hines Ward Jr.
Age: 25 • 6’1” • 215 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
97 Rec • 831 Rec YD • 9 Rec TD • 5.7 AY@T (2nd%) • 40 Routes/G • 83% Slot (91st%)
16 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 8 STD/8 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: B+ • Hands: B+ • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 21
’20 Final Rank: 22
’21 Ranks Range: 16-40
Do you think I’m crazy when I say a 97-catch, nine-touchdown season can be a big honking
disappointment? Look no further than JJSS, who couldn’t parlay those numbers into anything close
to a big free-agent contract. Smith-Schuster presumably went into the marketplace looking for Kenny
Golladay’s $18 million per season over four years, and the marketplace blanched. Instead, JuJu returns to
the Steelers for a fifth season on a one-year deal for $8 million.
The NFL consensus appears to be that while Smith-Schuster is a tough kid and a brawler out there, his
massive 2018 season happened because his name wasn’t Antonio Brown. The moment AB decamped
for parts unknown and feet unthawed, JuJu got real average. It was easier to dismiss the pedestrian
results in ’19 when Ben Roethlisberger missed 14 games. But ’20 saw JJSS get five targets of 20+ air
yards all year. Chase Claypool handled the bomb stuff. Diontae Johnson handled the exciting short-andintermediate stuff. And Smith-Schuster was left running safety-valve crossers. The Steelers themselves
have looked at what they’ve got and decided JuJu is Guy #3.
At least that’s what they decided last season. I think there’s some disparity here between the thoroughly
unexciting role we just saw JuJu play, and his actual ability. He is a mean and tough player in the open
field. He took an extraordinary amount of punishment running routes and extending his arms in traffic,
but played the full 16. I don’t think the Steelers offense has to be quite so compartmentalized, and just
in case you don’t think Pittsburgh could change the way they use these dudes in a single offseason, let’s
remind ourselves that JuJu may have run 83% of his routes out of the slot in ’20, but in ’19 that number
was 34%. I’ve ranked Johnson and Claypool higher because they legitimately are bigger-play threats and
have more outstanding traits. In a year where all three guys stay healthy, maybe I really do give SmithSchuster the worst chance at finishing with the best stats. But that doesn’t mean he sucks. Everything in
the Steel City relies on Big Ben’s ancient wing, but JuJu has a chance to jump back to every-week starter
status.
34. DEEBO SAMUEL SF
Age: 25 • 5’11” • 214 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
33 Rec • 391 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 2.4 AY@T • 25 Routes/G • 27% Slot
7 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: B+ • Hands: D • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 44
’20 Final Rank: 98
’21 Ranks Range: 24-36
Tori Amos once grabbed my hair in a Tower Records in Austin and shouted, “Is this color real???”
It was.
Tori’s wasn’t.
She also once sang:
You still look pretty
When you’re putting the damage on
Yes, when you’re putting the damage on
…and I can’t help but thinking instead of “Putting The Damage On,” that particular number could’ve
been called “A Song For Deebo.” Because listen. Deebo Samuel wrecks folks. He’s a nasty guy in the open
field. He’s about 80% running back, man…just ask the Rams from Week 6, when he took a pop pass on
jet motion, turned it upfield looking like Marshawn Lynch, withstood a huge hit and then ran right past
half the defense. Normally we get worried when our fantasy wideouts don’t catch the ball far enough
downfield. In Samuel’s case, almost all you’re getting are pop passes and throwback screens and handoffs,
but you almost prefer that, because he’s such a menace as soon as he’s holding a football.
But since his days at South Carolina, Samuel has also put the damage on himself. He missed significant
time over multiple seasons in college, he suffered a foot fracture last spring that caused him to miss the
first three weeks of 2021, and then he pulled a hamstring that cost him six of the season’s final nine
games. (He got COVID in there, too.) Listen, being the answer to the question “What If Marshawn
Lynch Was A Wide Receiver” sort of instantly makes you awesome. Samuel is a great big part of Kyle
Shanahan’s Offense Of The Future™. Up in Brandon Aiyuk’s profile, I noted that the Niners’ two
main WRs have a bunch of skill overlap. But we have to admit: Aiyuk is likelier to have a bigger role
down the field. Deebo is the misdirection guy, the power guy, the glue guy. He could easily score 10
scrimmage touchdowns, though five of them might be on running plays. He also could struggle to get to
1,000 scrimmage yards, and also struggle to stay healthy. But he sure does damage.
35. DEVONTA SMITH PHI
Age: 23 • 6’1” • 175 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
emmanuel sanders
’21 Ranks Range: 24-40 • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
The Eagles sure have dumped a lot of high draft picks into skill positions without a lot of sure things to
show for it! Since winning the Super Bowl after the 2017 season, they spent second-rounders on Dallas
Goedert (tons of potential but never more than 607 yards in a season), Miles Sanders (pure feast-orfamine), J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (pure famine) and Jalen Hurts (we’ll see!), and first-rounders the past
two years on Jalen Reagor and DeVonta Smith. In a midnight-green-tinted world where everyone talks
like Mare of Easttown and is born with a hoagie sutured into his or her fist, this group will represent
the backbone of a young, fast offense for a decade. But given the returns so far, you’ll forgive me if I
don’t hold my breath.
I guess it’s particularly galling that we have to evaluate Smith—the first wideout to win a Heisman
since Desmond Howard in ’91—in light of the fact that Philly burned a first-round pick just last year
at the same position. Does that mean Reagor is already a bust? Or does it mean Smith’s capacity to hit
the ground running and provide fantasy value as a rookie will be impeded as the Iggles keep trying to
make Reagor a thing, too? In last year’s Almanac, I told you that if Reagor proves not to have elite deep
speed, he’s not going to be a particularly good player, and given that I’m ranking him well outside my
top 50 WRs, you see where my suspicions lie. Smith, on the other hand, shouldn’t need all-world jets to
produce. He’s an ultra-smooth route runner who might struggle on the outside against press coverage,
but who can kill you from the slot and against zone because of his feel. The polish Reagor is still
looking to acquire oozes out of Smith’s pores.
Smith’s ’21 situation is a mixed bag. He benefits from an otherwise shallow receiving corps in Philly—
they’re still talking about Greg Ward and Travis Fulgham seeing significant snaps—but his quarterback
has huge question marks when it comes to, like, throwing a football. Also and significantly, Smith
suffered a scary early-camp knee injury that fortunately “only” turned out to be a sprained MCL.
Thus was born Jim McCormick’s phrase, “I’m 112 pounds and my knee hurts.” Funnily enough,
the ADP market—which typically overreacts to news of a particularly aggressive hangnail—held
tight on Smith, and perhaps rightly so. By the third week in August, Smith was back in action in
an exhibition game and looked darned quick. I gave back most of the rank I took away after the
first Almanac update.
36. COURTLAND SUTTON DEN
Age: 26 • 6’4” • 216 lbs • Injury: 15
2020 Stats:
3 Rec • 66 Rec YD • 0 Rec TD • 17.2 AY@T • 20 Routes/G • 20% Slot
1 Game • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C? • Elusiveness: B? • End Zone: A • Hands: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 13
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 10-36
If we could summarize the entire BUMMER of 2020 in one dude, here he is. Young Courtland Sutton, a
second-round pick in ’18 who flashed game-breaking chops in ’19 and made my flag list for ’20, only to
destroy his left knee 31 plays into the season. ACL snapped, MCL snapped, hopes snapped.
All the theoretical stuff we loved about Sutton could still apply, right? A 6’4” bulldozer who isn’t
necessarily fast but has all the traits of an alpha? His ’19 film is littered with big plays. There was the
one-handed bomb catch falling into the end zone against the Chargers. The full-extension highway
robbery in the end zone over Denzel Ward of the Browns. The short posts he kept scoring touchdowns
on, simply by blotting out the sun and going up and grabbing high passes. Evans/Golladay/Higgins…
that’s the potential range for someone like Sutton, and it can really pay off.
But we just have no idea if he’ll be the same guy on his reconstructed knee. If you’re feeling frisky and
want to heap some risk upon your shoulders, Sutton will clearly come at a discount compared to last
year (as he should). I ranked him as a high-level WR2 last summer, and he won’t go anywhere near
there in ’21 (as he shouldn’t). There’s simply no way to know before we see it. Jerry Jeudy gets a chance
at a mulligan after his disastrous rookie campaign, K.J. Hamler also has a year under his belt, Noah Fant
is practically a wideout himself…plus catching passes from the Teddy Bridgewater / Drew Lock Axis
Of Meh isn’t the best we could hope for. Still, listen, this time last year if you’d asked me which wideout
in the NFL with a couple seasons under his belt most looked like a future superstar…well, I’d have said
DK Metcalf. But after that, I might’ve said Courtland Sutton. He’s only 26 in October. This story can
still have a happy ending, but as of the second Almanac update, he hasn’t taken the field in an
exhibition game. That could mean nothing. But it could mean his rehabbed knee isn’t ready. That
latter risk made me lower him several spots in my late-August receiver ranks.
37. D.J. CHARK JAC
Pod nickname:
Baby Chark
Age: 25 • 6’4” • 198 lbs • Injury: 9
2020 Stats:
53 Rec • 706 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 14.0 AY@T (95th%) • 35 Routes/G • 24% Slot (31st%)
13 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: A- • Hands: B • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 26
’20 Final Rank: 48
’21 Ranks Range: 20-36
Let’s make a pact. Sure, we change our opinions on players based on what we see. That’s the whole
premise of my career. We watch the games, we talk about the extenuating circumstances, we adjust our
assessments of how good players are and how accommodating their situations are. But we should all
virtually pinkie-swear right now and promise each other not to let 2020 have any effect on what we
think of D.J. Chark. It’s like when the Coen Brothers made The Ladykillers. We acknowledge it happened,
we vomit in our mouths a little, and we move on.
Watching Chark’s ’20 film is maddening. First off, the poor kid was always limping off the field. He
missed full games because of ankle, rib and shin injuries, and toughed it out hobbling a few other
times. He also had to labor under the mustachioed graces of The People’s Champion Gardner Minshew,
whose lip adornment somehow made everybody love him far beyond his football-playing merits. Chark
has multiple plays where he’s open, but Minshew lazily lofts one up to be intercepted, or where he’s
run a great double-move but Minshew throws it too early and too deep to make up for his lack of
arm strength. For heaven’s sake, Beaky Buzzard impersonator Mike Glennon was a breath of fresh air
in December, which is not good. I still think Chark is a fast, big potential #1 wideout in the league.
Minshew was just a disaster.
So now we get Trevor Lawrence. That is better! Naturally, even star quarterbacks can suffer growing
pains, to say nothing of the fact that we have no idea whether Urban Meyer’s b.s. will float in the NFL.
Chark has a legit chance to bounce back if he stays healthy, but already suffered a “minor” break in
his hand early in August—easy to call it minor when it’s not your hand—though so far the Jags
say they don’t think Week 1 is in jeopardy. We should also note that Marvin Jones is now aboard
in Jacksonville. Jones is a one-trick pony: he lines up on the right side, he runs deep, he catches long
passes. My concern for Chark is…that’s one of his tricks, too! Long term, is Marvin Jones a reason to
be concerned about any Jaguars skill player? Of course not: he’s 31. But if the past decade of watching
him serve as second fiddle to A.J. Green, Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay has taught us anything it’s
that he will siphon yards and TDs. Chark can overcome it, and he can overcome the underneath stuff
that Laviska Shenault will siphon away, but that threat is real. He drops a few spots in the ranks here
because of his camp injury.
38. WILL FULLER MIA
Pod nickname:
The Cicada
Age: 27 • 6’ • 184 lbs • Injury: 14
2020 Stats:
53 Rec • 879 Rec YD • 8 Rec TD • 12.1 AY@T (77th%) • 31 Routes/G • 25% Slot (38th%)
11 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: C- • Hands: C • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 30
’20 Final Rank: 24
’21 Ranks Range: 16-50
Get some truth serum in my veins, and you’ll hear me dither on whether I prefer Minka Kelly or
Adrianne Palicki, likely breaking the hearts of both. Use that same truth serum on Dolphins coach Brian
Flores, and he’ll probably tell you there was no need to sign Will Fuller. There are better ways to spend
$10 million.
That’s not to say the doll-handed Fuller didn’t have a good 2020 season. In fact, dude was clearly on the
way to his best NFL campaign, and the goofballs who’ve been screaming at me for underrating Fuller
(and overrating Minka) were ready to pounce. The idea that there was some chasm between Fuller and
Brandin Cooks gap was always dumb and artificial—supported by a fluky Fuller basura-time touchdown
skein in October—but the fact that the two guys were used interchangeably in a good passing offense
was working. Aaaaaand then Fuller got popped in Week 13 for taking an illegal substance and got
suspended for six games. (Do you know how many dudes in the NFL take illegal substances? A lot. Do
you know how dumb you have to be to get caught? A lot.) The Texans had had enough of Fuller’s injury
history and erratic performance and let him walk. And the Dolphins slid into his DMs and offered him
good money for one year.
But then—using the Texans’ first-round pick—Miami drafted Jaylen Waddle. And listen, Waddle at
#6 overall could turn out to be John Ross at #9 overall and we’ll laugh at the idea Waddle was ever
an impediment to Fuller. You can even argue that having Fuller around takes pressure off Waddle to
produce right away. But if Waddle is Tyreek Hill, man, I want that dude playing now.
Anyway, this is what we’ve got: Fuller, Waddle and DeVante Parker. It’s truly one of the fastest receiving
corps in the league…but it’s playing with Tua Tagovailoa whom I still back, but who has (ahem)
questions regarding his willingness and arm strength to go down the field. Would a savvy possession
receiver have made more sense in Fuller’s place? You betcha. But speed like his is rare, and he will win a
few weeks for you. ( Just not Week 1, when his suspension continues.)
39. MICHAEL PITTMAN IND
Age: 24 • 6’4” • 223 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
40 Rec • 503 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 8.9 AY@T (28th%) • 28 Routes/G • 25% Slot (37th%)
13 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: B • Hands: B+ • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 51
’20 Final Rank: 86
’21 Ranks Range: 20-50
My comp for Pittman as a rookie in last year’s Almanac was Kelvin Benjamin. That was kind of an
insult, given that Big Benjy has since converted to tight end! We shouldn’t judge Pittman by his 2020
stats because everyone in the Colts offense was dealing with Philip Rivers’s swan song, but first
impressions from the film: Pittman ran a ton of underneath crossing routes, and after the catch his
straight-ahead speed is merely decent. Unfortunately, because of Rivers, we didn’t get to see the best
thing Pittman can be: a contested-catch downfield player. That gives me hope for ’21.
If and when he plays after his foot surgery, Carson Wentz will be more aggressive and that could
absolutely benefit the giant Pittman, who only had one drop on 61 targets and could turn into a
sweet end-zone weapon. There’s also some solid route running on Pittman’s rookie tape, something
Kelvin Benjamin can only dream of. We’re not talking about a wild jitterbug player like Tyreek Hill,
but rather someone whose footwork seemed purposeful getting him open on the intermediate stuff
Rivers preferred. Matt Harmon came on my podcast in July and likened Pittman to a bigger and faster
Keenan Allen, and while that might be a stretch, it gives you an idea what his upside can be. A 6’4”
moose with great hands who can outjump you deep and beat you with route-running chops underneath
sounds pretty good. Remember that the Colts also have T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell, who are
unquestionably quicker and straight-line faster than Pittman, plus you can never rule out Frank Reich
deciding to throw, like, forty end-zone fades to Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle. But if you woke me New
Year’s Day 2022 and told me Pittman led his team in touchdowns, I wouldn’t be shocked. Wentz’s
foot injury is bad news for Indy’s receivers—nobody wants a bunch of games with Jacob Eason
throwing Pittman passes—but I held off on the temptation to lower Pittman’s rank for the first
Almanac update. He should go low enough in fantasy drafts to be a bench player for you anyway,
and I’m excited enough about his film to keep him right here, as a high-upside mid-round stash.
40. JARVIS LANDRY CLE
Age: 29 • 5’11” • 196 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
72 Rec • 840 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 8.4 AY@T (22nd%) • 25 Routes/G • 53% Slot (74th%)
15 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: A- • End Zone: C • Hands: C • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 32
’20 Final Rank: 35
’21 Ranks Range: 24-36
Landry’s a baller. He’s more baller than a long weekend. He’s more baller than the Yellow Ledbetter guitar
solo. He’s more baller than that time when I was 20 and went into a packy and tried to buy a bottle of,
like, Canadian Mist or something, and the guy behind the counter looked at my actual ID and winked
and just let me buy it. Jarvis Landry had never missed an NFL game until he wound up on the COVID
list during 2020, and he makes a living as a little guy mostly in the middle of the field. He takes shots
and always plays and he’s where he’s supposed to be and he’s clutch and he’s good.
But he was never going to be a regular fantasy WR2. The ’17 season and the second half of the ’19
campaign were enticing, because Landry’s such a useful real-life player…we love imagining that the
guys we can see are maximizing every ounce of their relatively limited talent can become statistical
superstars. It doesn’t usually happen. Landry had another chance in ’20: Odell Beckham tore an ACL
early in Week 7, leaving the Browns without any other trustable aerial weaponry. It’s true he spent last
spring recovering from hip surgery, but he looked the same to me: a crossing-route specialist whose
job is to convert tough yards and get blasted. He’s actually dropped more passes than any other NFL
wideout over the past four combined seasons, and he’s not being asked to run routes downfield. I’m
not blaming the hip or the Browns offense for uninspiring results. Landry is what he is. If you need to
funnel him 112 catches like the ’17 Dolphins did, you’re not a very good offense.
There’s nobody else in this WR corps you’ll be threatened by if you think of Landry as a decent byeweek fill-in: it’s him and it’s Beckham. I don’t hate the idea of zigging while the rest of the world zags
deciding Cleveland’s offense is “too run-heavy”…I just wish I liked Landry as a fantasy option as much
as I do on the field.
41. MARVIN JONES JAC
Age: 31 • 6’2” • 199 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
76 Rec • 978 Rec YD • 9 Rec TD • 13.1 AY@T (84th%) • 37 Routes/G • 32% Slot (60th%)
16 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 5 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: C • End Zone: A- • Hands: B+ • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 42
’20 Final Rank: 15
’21 Ranks Range: 20-40
I know. He’s Marvin Jones. It’s like getting excited about egg salad.
But here are ol’ Marv’s fantasy finishes among wideouts over the past four seasons:
2017:
2018:
2019:
2020:
5th
56th (he was 23rd when he got hurt in Week 9)
27th
15th
I fully grant you that Jones’s fantasy finishes don’t correctly portray the experience of owning
him: a 3-for-29 always lurks around the corner, even though you’ll also get the occasional
7-for-117 with two touchdowns. But we’ve got folks lining up to lick Will Fuller’s cleats
every year for almost exactly the same act! Jones is the walking-around epitome of a “bestball option” (which is hipster code for “like DeSean Jackson, only smarter”), but even in our
regular-old redraft leagues, having a WR3 who’s pretty much guaranteed to go crazy four or
five times a season is valuable. In this case, because he’s got the fairly robotic repertoire of,
like, Alvin Harper, we have a tendency to turn up our noses.
I don’t think Jones’s move to Jacksonville will change anything. Yes, D.J. Chark is also a
straight-line deep threat, and is almost certainly a better all-around athlete. I think I’d still
draft Chark first, even after he hurt a hand early in training camp, and that feeling
grew a little stronger after Jones sprained an AC joint in the preseason (he’s expected to
recover in time for Week 1). But I feel quite certain I’m gonna tune in to Trevor Lawrence’s
rookie year and see ol’ Marv split wide on the offensive right side running wind sprints up and
down the field, occasionally hauling in big passes, and also catching scores from the red zone.
It’s what he does. Marvin Jones is sixth in receiving TDs since ’15, behind only Davante Adams,
DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. Okay, yes, he could use a little
extra mayo or maybe some tarragon. But he’s worth a later-round pick.
42. TYLER BOYD CIN
Age: 27 • 6’2” • 203 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
79 Rec • 841 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 8.4 AY@T (21st%) • 32 Routes/G • 81% Slot (90th%)
15 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/6 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: C+ • Hands: B+ • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 35
’20 Final Rank: 37
’21 Ranks Range: 24-40
Like me, Tyler Boyd must feel very old. He closed his eyes and opened them again, and a generation
of Bengals receivers has vanished. A.J. Green is gone. John Ross is gone. Auden Tate is always injured.
Boyd was always the unexciting guy we could rely on when nonsense befell his more athletically gifted
colleagues. But in the past two drafts, the Bengals have selected Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. If Boyd
winds up with another 90-catch season, things will have gone horribly wrong.
He’s okay! He had highlight catches in 2020. I remember one over the middle against the Titans Week
8 when Joe Burrow flung one way before Boyd was looking, and he spun his head around while being
held and still made a grab. He had a couple end-around runs that were good, and a simple little screen
Week 13 against the Dolphins when the defense lost track of him and he took it 72 yards to the
house. He doesn’t completely go away in ’21 because of the two kids. But his role gets that much more
circumscribed. Even without Chase around last season, Boyd had six targets and zero receptions on
passes that traveled 20+ air yards. Hey, you don’t string together three straight seasons of 75 receptions
or more without tons of savvy and reliability and short-area smarts. Joe Burrow liked him as a safety
valve, and that’s good! Whether Boyd becomes a bench player on your fantasy squad might depend
whether you shot the moon the first three or four times you drafted a WR. If you find yourself with
all risky guys ahead of him…well, it’s not the worst thing to pencil in seven or eight fantasy points per
week.
43. MARQUISE BROWN BAL
Age: 24 • 5’9” • 170 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
58 Rec • 769 Rec YD • 8 Rec TD • 13.1 AY@T (82nd%) • 25 Routes/G • 24% Slot (34th%)
16 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: A • End Zone: B • Hands: C+ • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 29
’20 Final Rank: 32
’21 Ranks Range: 14-40
My job as the wheedling dink you know and love wouldn’t be complete without some personal
inconsistency. Maybe you expect me to harsh on Hollywood Brown for not being able to take advantage
of an absolutely wide open wideout corps in Baltimore, for never really exerting his dominance as the
first receiver taken in the 2019 NFL Draft, and for not helping Lamar Jackson elevate his throwing
game. It would be more coherent of me, right? After all, I harumph and scoff and make all kind of oral
farting noises when someone says, “The Ravens are too run-oriented to support a great fantasy WR.”
That’s always nonsense! So doesn’t it stand to reason that I’d be more critical of Brown for failing to
surpass WR32 in either of his first two seasons than of a Ravens squad that didn’t make him enough of
a priority?
Uh, except watching some of this film back, I’m kind of blaming the Ravens.
They threw by far the fewest passes to WRs in ’20, and this in a year when Mark Andrews battled injury
and wasn’t spectacular. In fact, the Ravens of ’19 and ’20 have two of the three least-WR-intensive
seasons—in terms of receptions and yardage—of the past decade. But of course, there’s a reason for that:
Lamar Jackson. As a thrower, he’s not good, and Baltimore operates its offense accordingly. (So I guess
maybe I’m just blaming Jackson?) Man, I can show you a ton of plays where Marquise Brown roasted
one-on-one coverage only to have Jackson overthrow or underthrow him.
Of course, I can also show you plays where Jackson lays a deep ball in perfectly, and buddy, Hollywood
can ball. My comp for him two years ago was DeSean Jackson, and that was probably meant partly as
an insult…now I compare him to Brandin Cooks, one of the fastest and quickest players in the NFL.
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes. Any hint
of improvement from Jackson, and I think Brown goes boom. Unfortunately, Brown suffered what
Baltimore beat reporters have called a “significant” hamstring injury early in training camp.
There’s plenty of time for him to heal and be ready far in advance of Week 1, but when injury
stories leak out, we’d do well to listen. Accordingly, I lowered Hollywood in the first Almanac
update.
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Through two seasons is Marquise Brown in bust
territory?
It kind of feels like it, right? Hollywood has had an almost impossible dearth of wide receiver
talent around him in Baltimore—unless you get really pumped and jacked over Willie Snead—and
yet hasn’t translated his first-round NFL Draft status into consistent usability for fantasy. But I’m
here to tell you, relative to recent first-round WRs, Brown is no bust. Here are the other firstround wideouts taken since 2015 who’ve caught fewer than Brown’s 104 balls over their first two
campaigns:
Player
Marquise Brown
Corey Davis
DeVante Parker
Will Fuller
Nelson Agholor
Corey Coleman
Mike Williams
Phillip Dorsett
N’Keal Harry
Breshad Perriman
Josh Doctson
John Ross
Laquon Treadwell
Kevin White
Year Drafted
2019
2017
2015
2016
2015
2016
2017
2015
2019
2015
2016
2017
2016
2015
Pick #
25th
5th
14th
21st
20th
15th
7th
29th
32nd
26th
22nd
9th
23rd
7th
Catches First Two Seasons
104
99
82
75
59
56
54
51
45
43
37
21
21
17
I’m not here to over-sell Brown’s NFL career so far, but obviously it could be worse. If you want
to be alarmed, you’d say literally nobody below Hollywood on this list has become a consistent
fantasy contributor. But the fact is that of the 17 WRs drafted in the first round in the five drafts
between ’15 and ’19, only three posted more catches than Brown in their first two seasons: Amari
Cooper, D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley. Hopefully Brown winds up more like those guys!
44. JAYLEN WADDLE MIA
Age: 23 • 5’10” • 182 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Brandin cooks
’21 Ranks Range: 14-N/A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
If Waddle is exciting as his hyperventilating boosters claim, maybe I’m making a hell of a mistake ranking
him way out of the fantasy starting picture. Sure, Waddle could spend a lot of 2021 running out of the
slot, but the slot doesn’t mean you suck. Tyreek Hill ran 55% out of the slot in ’20. Before Waddle broke
his ankle at Alabama in November, he showed ludicrous speed and quickness; there are folks who think if
he’d stayed healthy, he’d have won the Heisman and not Crimson Tide teammate DeVonta Smith. I didn’t
offer up the Tyreek comparison (on the field) accidentally: everyone agrees that if the Dolphins surround
Waddle with the right talent and play calling, Hill is his ceiling.
So why not put him 10 or 15 spots higher? Once we’re out of the first five or six rounds, shouldn’t we
make sure we’re putting in an early bid for The Next Tyreek Hill?
There’s some logic to that. You know your league better than I. If you can usually make up for busted
picks on the waiver wire, give Waddle a nudge skyward. But I think we need to balance cockeyed
optimism with reality. Miami has two other good (if mercurial) receivers: Will Fuller and DeVante
Parker. They also have Tua Tagovailoa under center and even I—still in the tank—have to admit that
Tua didn’t show much willingness to fire downfield last year. Waddle isn’t walking in on Mahomes/
Kelce/Reid. Plus, it’s just difficult to be that good that fast. Waddle’s build is pretty slight, and while Hill,
Antonio Brown and DeSean Jackson have made a nice living in the NFL, the road is littered with small
dudes like Tavon Austin, Kendall Wright, Corey Coleman and many more who couldn’t hack it. I think if
you’re deciding whether it’s likelier Waddle does or doesn’t produce a huge rookie year…well, I probably
err on the side of ‘no.’ But he’s exciting enough that taking an early-ish shot on his best case makes sense
in some scenarios.
45. MICHAEL GALLUP DAL
Age: 25 • 6’1” • 198 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
59 Rec • 843 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 11.9 AY@T (72nd%) • 38 Routes/G • 6% Slot (1st%)
16 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: B • Hands: C • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 39
’20 Final Rank: 36
’21 Ranks Range: 30-50
By now we are so deep into WR3 And The Infinite Sadness that Billy Corgan should be singing Michael
Gallup’s profile while wearing a top hat and standing in a cloud. There’s really no rational argument that
Gallup is a no-brainer fantasy starter. He’s a strongman in the open field and thus belongs to this new
generation of receivers who are also kind of running backs, he’s probably miscast as the Cowboys’ deep
threat, his hands aren’t great…in other words he’s an extraordinary physical specimen by humanity’s
standards but in the NFL he’s Michael Floyd.
This is a cool thing that I wish I could be! You get to wear silly tight pants and run around on TV with
your friends every week, and every month or so you produce an awesome box score and get a bunch of
too-clever analysts promoting you as the Real Deal, even though you’re actually probably not. I really
can’t definitively tell you Gallup won’t finish the 2021 season as WR25. But I also can’t tell you he
won’t finish outside the top 50. There are just an awful lot of guys at his level.
Those who base decisions on situations will, I suppose, drool at Dak Prescott’s Bortles-lite approach that
leads to many pass attempts, so even if Gallup isn’t the weapon Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are,
he’ll be an ancillary wheel on a high-scoring wagon. Those who base decisions on coachspeak will read
minicamp reports about how Gallup won’t just play on the outside, but will rather sometimes line up in
the slot—where I honestly do think his skills would be better utilized—and become a more consistent
producer week by week. I dunno. I think Gallup is Just A Guy. I reiterate: that’s pretty awesome for
him! I don’t mind if you draft him higher than this rank, because I feel similarly ambivalent about most
everyone in this range! I will simply tell you I don’t think he’s a good enough player to bully his way to
weekly fantasy production.
46. DEVANTE PARKER MIA
Pod nickname:
Deviant Parker
Age: 28 • 6’3” • 216 lbs • Injury: 7
2020 Stats:
63 Rec • 793 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 10.0 AY@T (50th%) • 31 Routes/G • 23% Slot (28th%)
14 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/5 PPR
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 24
’20 Final Rank: 46
Film Grades
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: C+ • End Zone: B+ • Hands: C • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
’21 Ranks Range: 16-50
Spoon recorded a song called “Trouble Comes Running” on their seminal 2010 record Transference,
which you should download because it’s awesome. And every time someone @s me asking why I don’t
respect DeVante Parker more, that song plays in my head.
After the ’19 season, Parker had finally done it. He’d finally overcome four years of head-clutching
mediocrity and drops and mental mistakes, and finished as a top-10 fantasy wideout. His believers—
surely they refer to themselves as “The Deviants”—could finally crow. His ’20 ADP vaulted into the top
20 WRs. But oh yeah, then the same old Parker showed his face. He got ejected for fighting in Week 13.
He dropped a pass in the end zone and hurt his leg in Week 14. He gave up on deep balls. He vanished
for long stretches. He also made great plays, because that’s what he does. You want to see athletic ability,
check out Week 10 against the Chargers, when Parker somehow grabbed a pass thrown deep into the
corner of the end zone with one hand but just barely couldn’t get his feet down. It’s obvious why folks
allow themselves to get baited every year. He’s tall and fast and can jump. But except for basically a twomonth stretch at the end of ’19, Parker has still always mostly been trouble.
Now he’s Rip Van Winkle waking up after a long winter’s nap to find society changed around him. He’s
no longer battling Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford for WR targets. Two guys who are verifiably faster have
joined the Dolphins: Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle. Does this transition Parker into becoming the
Grand Old Man of this receiving corps, giving him license to roam the middle of the field and become
a volume vacuum? Maybe. If it does, especially with potential check-down artist Tua Tagovailoa under
center, it’s possible I’m underestimating Parker’s PPR and end-zone appeal, and he’s about to do another
top-10 season. But he’s just never been that kind of reliable. And you know what? I’ll be totally
honest. I’m lowering Paker for the second Almanac update because by now I’ve done a ton of
drafts, and every time I get to the point in my ranks when I should take Parker, I pass on him.
That means my own sniffer tells me he was too high.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
Did I just write up in Odell Beckham’s profile that I never say I won’t draft a player if
the price gets right? I lied. I won’t draft Parker. I want nothing to do with him. He’s had
five years to show us anything…one end-of-the-season blowup with Ryan Fitzpatrick
shouldn’t be enough to trick us. You ain’t getting in the Fischberg locker room with
that stuff. Parker is like that NFT that was cool for six months, you held onto it, you
dreamed it was gonna make you rich…and now he’s worth as much as two hotdogs
and an Orange Julius. What a knucklehead.
47. COREY DAVIS NYJ
Age: 26 • 6’3” • 209 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
65 Rec • 984 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 12.2 AY@T (78th%) • 26 Routes/G • 23% Slot (25th%)
14 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: C+ • End Zone: B • Hands: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 73
’20 Final Rank: 29
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
Corey Davis was a stupid signing for the Jets.
I’m not telling you he can’t lead the team in targets and catches and provide sneaky draft-day value,
because he can, but so can Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder and basically every other wideout you’re
going to read about in the rest of this Almanac section. The Jets are rebuilding. They lied to Davis when
they gave him $27 million in free agency, telling him Sam Darnold would be back but then drafting
Zach Wilson, a (to be charitable) project quarterback. They drafted Moore in the second round. They
got Crowder to accept a pay cut to stay, and even signed bench dude Keelan Cole. This is probably
a terrible team in 2021, if one that’ll get loads of slack with Robert Saleh as its new coach. They’ve
got years to go before they can dream of NFL glory. Davis was volatile and injured for four years in
Tennessee. Maybe he’s a sweetheart of a guy, but talk about a luxury item! You didn’t need to splurge on
Corey Davis. It’s like going to a housewarming party at a trailer park and bringing Corey Davis.
But let’s separate the lunacy of the landing spot from the player. We spent three seasons wondering how
in the world Davis could be a #5 overall selection…and then in ’20 he kind of showed how. There really
wasn’t any difference in the way the Titans used Davis and A.J. Brown last year…play-action, seam shots,
not great separation but very good size. Brown got fantasy love because he’s a better version and thus
scored a bunch more touchdowns. But except for a two-week COVID stint, Davis stayed healthy in his
walk year and looked like a big strong complementary piece.
Unfortunately, in New York he won’t have anyone to complement. He’s the one getting alpha money.
I just don’t really think he’s an alpha. He’s jumping into what looks like a mishmash of WRs who’ll
likely rival the U.S. Congress in week-by-week jockeying done in the service of nothing. It’s tempting
to say we’re exaggerating the worthlessness of the Jets offense, and that someone will emerge from this
receiving corps. Yeah, but I just don’t believe it.
48. NELSON AGHOLOR NE
Age: 28 • 6’ • 198 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
48 Rec • 896 Rec YD • 8 Rec TD • 15.4 AY@T (100th%) • 26 Routes/G • 33% Slot (64th%)
16 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: C • Hands: D • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 21
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
Good for Agholor. His career was deader than a Bill Cosby fan club. He busted hard in Philly as a #20
overall pick, took a veteran’s minimum deal last year in Vegas, and parlayed a “good” season (more on
that in a moment) into $16 million guaranteed from the Patriots. It helps that in the rearview mirror
of life, Agholor was born into Bill Belichick’s blind spot…in that he, y’know, plays wide receiver. Bill is
the best coach ever, but his list of misses at wideout could fill an entire baseball roster, if that baseball
roster was comprised of men whose hands don’t function properly.
Nelson Agholor’s hands don’t function properly! He’s an impossible drop machine. As a footie-pajamawearer, I had to go back and watch them again to prepare myself. The touchdown drop Week 10 against
the Broncos. The two drops Week 11 against the Chiefs. Week 15 against the Chargers he dropped one
and dislocated half his fingers on his way to the ground, which to be honest is a proper street justice on
his part. Get these mallards attached to my wrists off of me! I know: he kept catching deep passes from
Derek Carr and actually felt kind of trustable in the second half of the 2020 season. It truly wasn’t a
mirage. He ran some stellar out-and-ups, he got interfered with in the end zone a couple times…he did
the thing we expected Henry Ruggs would do for the Raiders.
But why did it have to be my team that took the bait? I can’t believe I’m about to say this, but Carr is
certainly the guy you want throwing deep balls to your wideout if your other options are Mac Jones and
the ghost of Cam Newton! Agholor caught eight TDs on 48 total grabs. Randy Moss once caught 13
TDs on 49 receptions. Torey Smith once caught 11 TDs on 49 catches. But 48 or fewer? We’re in the
neighborhood of uber-flukes like Reggie Williams, Jerricho Cotchery and Ted Ginn. I can’t dismiss the
possibility Agholor serves as a useful lid-lifter on what looks like a vertically challenged offense. But I’ll
let him prove it to me again before I pay anything like a real price in ’21.
49. MIKE WILLIAMS LAC
Pod nickname:
Not-That-Mike-Williams
Age: 27 • 6’4” • 220 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
48 Rec • 756 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 14.6 AY@T (98th%) • 31 Routes/G • 24% Slot (32nd%)
15 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: C • End Zone: A- • Hands: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Sure! I dunno! Maybe! Probably not! Who knows!
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 43
’20 Final Rank: 42
’21 Ranks Range: 24-48
I’m done expecting anything other than The Weekly Nibble from Mike Williams, and I hope you are,
too. Four years into his career and he still hasn’t caught 50 passes in a season. The excuses are gone,
pal. First Tyrell Williams and the rotting husk of Antonio Gates were in the way, then it was Phil
Rivers’s antediluvian arm, then it was Austin Ekeler being too much like a wideout himself, and I’m
sorry at some point either you’re the kind of talent who demands a higher workload or you nibble
around the edges with every-other-week deep balls that make you look like a superstar on the George
Michael Sports Machine, but nowhere else.
Williams got away from cautious lung-puncturee Tyrod Taylor right away in 2020 and got to play with
big-armed Justin Herbert for 15 games…and he still wound up with 48 grabs. He’s a big play waiting to
happen, but he just waits way too long. Returning from a hamstring injury in Week 5 against the Saints,
yes, he took advantage of a busted coverage for a long touchdown, but he also made a ridiculous grab
down the left sideline on an underthrown ball tossed toward two defenders and ran a pretty goal-line
crosser to score from inside the 5. He has moments that just blow your mind! He’s not actually faster
than many of the defenders he runs again, but he’s such a huge guy that even when they’re with him,
Williams has a chance to just go up and snag a pass anyway. In another life, he’s Kenny Golladay. He
really does look amazing every so often.
But I’m not sure why we’d assume it’ll happen this year, as opposed to all the other years. Williams is
27. The Chargers offense was kind of a rocket ship for much ’20, and Williams couldn’t rise above his
usual three-catch, 50-yard average. We all believe he has the talent to do better. I guess I’m fine with
him as a bench option just in case. But until he justifies more volume, it’s just the same old nibble.
50. DARNELL MOONEY CHI
Age: 24 • 5’10” • 176 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
61 Rec • 631 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 11.6 AY@T (67th%) • 32 Routes/G • 18% Slot (15th%)
16 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: D • Hands: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 55
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Holy moly, people love this kid! One of the biggest surprises of my summer was an AMA I did on
Reddit in which approximately 4,000 people asked about Darnell Mooney! I suppose it makes sense.
Mooney is legitimately tiny for a wideout, but in his rookie season he wasn’t only used as a slot
receiver, and produced an unlikely 60-catch, 600-yard season in a truly constipated Bears pass offense.
He’s fast. He also hasn’t been asked to do much route-running yet. His AY@T mark looks impressive, but
having re-watched his 2020 workload I can tell you: a big majority of Mooney’s usage was screens, rub
routes and play-action stuff where he’s the shallow option, and then a 50-yard bomb occasionally mixed
in. And because it was Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles passing the ball, those deep shots were incredibly
inefficient: Mooney had a whopping 23 targets that traveled 20+ air yards—tied for 14th-most in the
league—and only caught four of them.
It’s possible to interpret the Bears trading away Anthony Miller in July as a vote of confidence for
Mooney, and that’s really at the heart of why I decided to raise his rank for the first Almanac
update. Maybe he gets more action from the slot, which provides more week-by-week stability as his
downfield stuff gives him ceiling. That would be cool! But the real question for ’21 is: will the Bears
get competent enough play from Justin Fields or (gulp) Andy Dalton to make any receiver behind Allen
Robinson a consistent fantasy weapon? I have doubts. Mooney’s biggest boosters give him Tyreek-Hillstyle upside, but we have to realize that while Hill is small, he still has 10 or 15 pounds on Mooney, and
his quickness is on a different level. The Miller trade made me boost Mooney’s rank, though probably
not enough at first. I think he’s draftable. But I’m wary of Chicago’s QB play.
51. ELIJAH MOORE NYJ
Age: 21 • 5’9” • 184 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Steve smith?
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Moore’s speed is real. To get a good sense of that, watch Patrick Murray’s college film review on the
Harris Football YouTube channel. You’ll see 4.3 (Pro Day) wheels and some surprising grit to hang
on to contested catches when he takes a lick. He has fluid hips, quick feet, and an overall hard-veering
quality to his running style that make him dangerous. On slants, he’s tough enough to hang on and
catch it in traffic. His ability to sell it before instantly swiveling his chassis upfield for a go route is
uncommon. Time and again, Moore’s tape shows him detonating some poor future Foot Locker manager
on the sluggo, and once the ball’s in the air, his speed does the rest.
I was initially reluctant to embrace Moore as a borderline top-50 fantasy WR option, mainly
because I didn’t like the fact that Jamison Crowder returned to New York. Moore and Crowder
are both small players of the “slot dude” archetype, and Crowder renegotiating to accept less
dough felt like a splash of cold water. Maybe the veteran would school the rookie, while bigger
dudes played on the outside. So far, though, it seems there’s a fair amount of evidence that
Moore has been learning the NFL mostly as an outside wideout, which is exciting. If he’s one
of those rare guys whose speed and competitiveness allows him to be a perimeter player at 5’9”,
this little dude might just be as special as his boosters claim. We’ll try not to get too excited
right away. Corey Davis is here, Crowder is here, Denzel Mims is still trying to break through...
and everyone’ll be catching passes from rookie Zach Wilson. It’s probably not a recipe for
fantasy starter-hood. But Moore’s prospect film is fun enough that he deserves to be stashed in
all leagues. I’d be most excited if Crowder gets cut or Moore proves capable of playing outside.
I’d be least excited if the quad injury Moore suffered right before the first Almanac update
proves serious. (By the last week in August Moore’s quad was reportedly healthy and he’s back
practicing and is expected to play in the team’s final preseason game.)
52. MARQUEZ CALLAWAY NO
Age: 23 • 6’2” • 204 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
21 Rec • 213 Rec YD • 0 Rec TD • 8.8 AY@T • 13 Routes/G • 22% Slot
11 Games • 3 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: ? • Hands: ? • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Okay! Here’s your dang Marquez Callaway profile!
I’m usually reluctant to get too excited about training-camp heroes. When you’ve been doing this
stupid job a long time, you remember the stories. Dane Sanzenbacher blowing everyone away for
the Bengals on Hard Knocks. Zach Zenner being untacklable for the Lions. Paul Turner being the
future star receiver for the Eagles. August of 2021 has been Callaway Time: a steady drumbeat of
blurbs from Saints camp has caused the second-year undrafted receiver to leap up into the later
rounds of fantasy drafts. I admit it feels a little like a sucker bet. Michael Thomas is out with
ankle surgery until at least partway through the season, but the other, higher-pedigreed guy—
Tre’Quan Smith—has missed time, too. Just because Callaway has (apparently) shone in camp
without Smith around doesn’t actually mean he’s already been designated New Orleans’s WR1.
Except then I watched New Orleans’ second preseason game and Callaway balled out, and I guess
I’m sort of buying in.
Callaway played during Thomas’s extended absence last year, and had an eight-catch game, but
he also missed time with ankle and knee injuries, had an IR stint, and disappeared when he
returned. His rookie oeuvre consisted almost entirely of short passes against soft zones, which
is okay! After all, there are a lot of soft zones out there! My impression from reporting in
Saints camp is that the team has put more on his plate this season, and we saw him catch two
long preseason TD passes from Jameis Winston in late August. He doesn’t look like a blazer.
But on those plays, he looked like a baller. Certainly Smith missed weeks of practice with
his undisclosed injury, and maybe that’ll permanently change the way Sean Payton looks at
these two guys. Or maybe once Smith is back playing again, he’ll become the alpha. I do think
Callaway and Smith will both play a lot in Thomas’s absence, and might be pretty back-and-forth
and up-and-down. For this final Almanac update, though, I’m taking the cheese on Callaway.
History proves you actually can fake preseason stardom, but there’s enough smoke here to make
me believe what the beat reporters are selling.
53. CURTIS SAMUEL WAS
Pod nickname:
Mr. Pibb
Age: 25 • 5’11” • 195 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
77 Rec • 851 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 7.3 AY@T (11th%) • 27 Routes/G • 66% Slot (84th%)
15 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 6 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: B- • Hands: C- • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 63
’20 Final Rank: 25
’21 Ranks Range: 28-48
Samuel reunites with Terry McLaurin in Washington this year, but don’t tell Cousin Josh. After all, when
Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham arranged an NFL reunion, Josh flipped out. “It’s not fair!” he whined
on the podcast. “Why should these guys get to play with their best friends?” Well, McLaurin and Samuel
were teammates at Ohio St.; I know how much Josh loves McLaurin this year, so I have a feeling he
hasn’t connected the dots yet. Man, if Dwayne Haskins hadn’t turned out to be JaMarcus Russell, it’d be
a Buckeye party in D.C. and Josh might be in an aggravation-induced coma.
Samuel has settled into a supplemental, do-anything kind of NFL role. It’s not what his biggest fans
wished for him, but it got him $24.5 million guaranteed this winter. He’s not a great route runner or
pass catcher. But he’s fast as hell. When Carolina lost Christian McCaffrey last year, Samuel essentially
became the backup running back (which helps explain a higher-than-it-looked fantasy finish: he had 200
yards rushing with two running touchdowns). The biggest share of his WR yardage will always come on
slot routes or pop passes. He’s not “merely” a sub-package player, and I don’t mean to insult the things
he’s good at. Heck, if you want to see what kind of pure athlete Samuel is, watch Week 9 against the
Chiefs (Q4 14:23): a delayed under route against zone where he’s probably not even expecting the ball,
but reacts by flipping himself backwards and snagging it against the grain. His 11 drops over the past
two years are second in the NFL to Diontae Johnson, but if we get ourselves revved up about squarepeg “offensive weapons” like Deebo Samuel and Elijah Moore, Samuel deserves love, too. Let’s make
sure the groin injury that bothered him early in training camp is okay, but otherwise: he still
seems draftable. (That draftability has ebbed a bit as Samuel still isn’t practicing in late August.
Washington’s coaches say they hope his groin will allow him to practice in early September. A
slight downgrade is warranted.) He’ll give you a 4-for-42 too often to be a comfortable own, but his
speed is a great complement to the significantly more polished McLaurin. Let’s just hope Cousin Josh
doesn’t put two and two together on this one.
54. T.Y. HILTON IND
Age: 32 • 5’10” • 183 lbs • Injury: 9
2020 Stats:
56 Rec • 762 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 12.6 AY@T (81st%) • 29 Routes/G • 18% Slot (17th%)
15 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: C- • Hands: B- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 27
’20 Final Rank: 41
’21 Ranks Range: 18-N/A
Things didn’t start out too well for Hilton in 2020. In Indy’s shocking Week 1 loss to Jacksonville—the
Jags’ only win of the year—Indy had a chance to tie the game with under a minute to play, and Hilton
dropped consecutive targets. After the second, he stayed face-down on the ground clutching his helmet
as if to say, “I am very bad at football!” He then spent the season’s first two months trying to prove that
sentiment true.
What can you say? It was rancid. He dropped a wide-open bomb touchdown in Week 2 against the
Vikings. He looked like he had a hard time getting open against tight coverage all through September.
He dropped a short slant Week 6 against the Bengals. He hurt his groin Week 8 against the Lions then
missed a game. Through Week 11, he had 29 catches and no TDs! We were no longer rostering him in
most fantasy leagues. It’s hard to know when a long-time solid player has suddenly lost the edge, but the
stats made a convincing case that for Hilton, the end was nigh.
And then, weirdly, things picked up. From Week 12 forward, Hilton was the WR7! The same quick little
sure-handed push-off artist we’ve known for a decade seemed like he was mostly back. Maybe the groin
bothered him those first two months. Maybe Philip Rivers didn’t like the way Hilton looked at his Baby
Bjorn. But suddenly Hilton was the first read again, running strong routes and shoving away defenders
at the top his route like almost no other small wideout I can remember, plus acting like a dreadlocked
psyched-up maniac after the tackle. His overall stats tell a tale of decline, and maybe that’ll wind up
being true, but if we’d simply tuned into Hilton’s season the last few days of November and watched
from that point forward, I honestly think we’d still view him favorably. Yup, that’s a hedge. I’m not sure
what to think. A healthy Carson Wentz would be a better player than Old Man Rivers, and it’s not
like Michael Pittman or Zach Pascal or anyone else stepped up as a receiving weapon in ’20. He turns
32 this season so maybe it’s over, and I do prefer Pittman as a fantasy pick, but there’s also a world
where Hilton outperforms this rank by a lot. That world would pretty clearly need Wentz to return
from foot surgery relatively early in the season, though. (The good news is: by late August, that
appeared likely.)
55. ANTONIO BROWN TB
Pod nickname:
The Phylum
Age: 33 • 5’10” • 185 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
45 Rec • 483 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 8.5 AY@T (25th%) • 29 Routes/G • 21% Slot (20th%)
8 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • End Zone: B • Hands: A • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 66
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Last year, before he joined BradyCo in Tampa for a Super Bowl season, Brown pleaded no contest to
assaulting a delivery driver. He was sentenced for burglary, battery, and criminal mischief charges,
and that’s to say nothing of two civil suits, one of which alleged sexual misconduct and has since been
settled. Like the Tyreek Hills and Kareem Hunts out there (and probably a bunch of individuals we
don’t hear about), Brown’s ability to be a good human being doesn’t seem to have much bearing on his
ability to play football. If it makes you feel icky to roster him, yup. I get it.
You know I’ve always loved AB’s talent. He is the Phylum founder. Never a burner, never a bruiser,
always just a baller, Brown is right there next to Jerry Rice on the Mount Rushmore for guys who were
too busy being great at football to test well at Combines. He’s no longer the coverage-shaking terror
he was in his prime, and he’s no longer the matchup-proof force against the very best corners, but he’s
still quick enough to consistently win against man, and as a zone-beater he’s significantly more versatile
than your run-of-the-mill off-brand slot guy. Brady wanted him in West Florida after vouching for him
during a stint in New England, and it’s certainly no insignificant thing to have the trust of Tom Terrific
in an offense that’s running it back to defend a title. If Brown had played the full 2020 regular season
rather than half, he’d have finished as fantasy’s WR20. Even at 33 and coming off knee surgery, in the
midst of a reportedly very good—if fistfight-laden—training camp, the player is still pretty good.
But AB has long passed the point where all we need to consider is the player.
56. RANDALL COBB GB
Age: 31 • 5’10” • 195 lbs • Injury: 14
2020 Stats:
38 Rec • 441 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 7.1 AY@T • 24 Routes/G • 71% Slot
10 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 1 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: C • Hands: B+ • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 79
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
One thing I thought I was finished with in my life was writing Randall Cobb profiles.
It’s been four years since he’s even vaguely been on our draft radar, and seven years since the least-likely
WR6 fantasy finish I can remember. Except in 2014, over his career Cobb has been the prototype dink/
dunk slot option who’s a better real-life player than fantasy weapon. He spent a year in the wilderness
with the Cowboys and then another with the Texans and in my vision of the future he was more likely
to retire than ever require another Almanac write-up.
But Aaron Rodgers is the new GM in Green Bay, and this July he demanded that Cobb return to
Lambeau, and the Packers made it so. I guess you could argue this move is designed to give rookie
hybrid slot athlete Amari Rodgers a mentor who can be jettisoned from the airlock before Week 1,
but at least initially that’s not how I read it. The Packers have lately surrounded their Hall-of-Fame
quarterback with Davante Adams and a bunch of rangy doofus athletes who can’t play football, and it
seems like one condition for A-Rod’s return is to get him another player he actually trusts. And you
know what? That’s fair. Cobb has always been a pro. He’s not electrically shifty, but he can shake a
linebacker and has solid feel about when to power down against a zone. My guess is that ’21 becomes
the Adams-and-Cobb show, while Amari Rodgers learns and the other young wideouts (Marquez
Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Allen Lazard, Timofyev Schlingbottom, Granholmington Von
Krasnick, Bilbo Quinvart, Chetthing Aarsbergen) see their loads lightened.
That’s no guarantee Cobb will translate the playing time I’m presuming into great numbers. After his
outrageous 91/1,287/12 campaign in ’14, the Cobb-in-Green-Bay act disappointed. The past three years
he’s suffered concussions, hamstring, back and toe injuries. But given how this season in Green Bay is
shaping up, it shouldn’t shock anyone if he winds up Rodgers’s second-favorite target.
57. COLE BEASLEY BUF
Pod nickname:
Coldham Humphley
Age: 32 • 5’8” • 174 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
82 Rec • 967 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 8.0 AY@T (17th%) • 29 Routes/G • 89% Slot (97th%)
15 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: C • Hands: B- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 72
’20 Final Rank: 31
’21 Ranks Range: 30-44
There’s nothing in Beasley’s game that isn’t replaceable by about a dozen cookie-cutter slot guys in
the league, which is why he’s known around these parts as Coldham Humphley. In last year’s Almanac
profile, I wrote, “He’s an okay little player, but the only way you chase this kind of guy is if his whole
offense goes crazy and everyone scores on the reg.”
Aaaand there’s Cole Beasley, finishing as WR31 in 2020, precisely because the Bills offense became a
wagon. They added Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen ascended into the QB fantasy elite, and everyone in the
Buffalo passing game benefited. Beasley is the Dollar Tree version of late-stage Julian Edelman. He
pumps his fists real hard at the line of scrimmage, shuffles out of breaks a few yards from the line,
and rips the occasional seam route if a defense forgets he’s still fast enough to glide by a pedestrian
linebacker or safety. (For example: Week 13, first quarter against the 49ers, he’s slot left against a
three-deep zone, and safety Tarvarius Moore inches up to protect against a short out-route only to
watch Beasley worm past him into a soft spot in the zone for a 31-yard downfield grab.) With Beasley,
it’s mostly quick slants, quick outs, short crosses and screens. He’s fine.
Okay. So Allen now has Diggs, Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and Gabriel Davis playing wideout. Despite
my regular admonitions about “wagons” and “rising tides lifting all boats,” it’s hard for four WRs from
the same team to be startable. Diggs, Beasley and Davis were all standard-league top-50 WRs in ’20,
but Brown missed half the season. So where do Sanders and his $5.9 million contract fit in? Diggs is
obviously safe, but could Sanders eat into Beasley’s production? Short answer: yes! However, he’s more
of a two-thirds outside receiver…putting him into more regular conflict with Davis. A repeat of 80+
catches for Beasley feels like a stretch? But maybe not. There’s not much ceiling drafting Beasley, but
if you believe in Josh Allen, Coldham Humphley should ride again. ( Just make sure he doesn’t retire
because he’s mad about vaccines.)
58. LAVISKA SHENAULT JAC
Age: 23 • 6’1” • 227 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
58 Rec • 600 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 6.0 AY@T (4th%) • 26 Routes/G • 25% Slot (35th%)
14 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: B+ • Hands: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 69
’20 Final Rank: 50
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Aretha Franklin did “Respect” better than Otis Redding. Whitney Houston did “I Will Always Love You”
better than Dolly Parton. Some covers are so good they upstage the original. Most…are not. If I mention
Carl Lewis singing the national anthem, does that scan? I’m old.
As a rookie, Shenault’s Deebo Samuel impression was just okay. Samuel is the prototype for this
generation of open-field maulers masquerading as wideouts, and while Shenault is certainly another
violent ball carrier with frightening intentions when he’s on the loose, his first campaign was nowhere
near as productive as Samuel’s. Laviska is a crusher, for sure, and at certain points last season, the Jags
tried to scheme the ball his way. There’s a play from Week 2 against Tennessee where they hand it off
to him, he cuts to his left and rips through the lane, then dirt-naps Kenny Vaccaro with a shoulder
on a 13-yard pickup. Against Houston, Week 5, it’s a little zig route shy of the first-down sticks, and
Shenault spins to miss one tackler before stiff-arming another to the depths of Hades. He’s awfully
tough to bring down.
So why not embrace Shenault more fully? Part of me likes that the offense wants to involve him
creatively. Another part—the Dexter-McCluster-haunted part that fears gadgetry—wonders if it’s an
indictment of any receiver to have 24 percent of his rookie touches be carries. Maybe Trevor Lawrence
can elevate Shenault to Deebo-level magnificence. If he doesn’t, it’s a hard sell to say we’re positive
he’s developed enough route chops to produce a big year with traditional wideout targets. I’ve boosted
Shenault’s rank a bit because of D.J. Chark’s training-camp hand injury, and I definitely get
the sense that there are folks who’ll tell you to draft Shenault first among Jaguars wideouts.
As of now, I still would say third, but because of Chark’s medical red flag it’s fair to say that
misshapen group is growing closer together.
59. MECOLE HARDMAN KC
Age: 23 • 5’10” • 187 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
41 Rec • 560 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 10.5 AY@T (55th%) • 20 Routes/G • 49% Slot (70th%)
16 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: D • Hands: C- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüü
I hope that you stay useful longer than I did
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 47
’20 Final Rank: 57
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
’Cuz it only gets harder from here
That’s the sweetly sung start to “Cynicism” by Surrogate, and when it comes to Hardman: hope for
usefulness is still alive, but 2020 hurt. Nobody promised us consistent usage, and that’s good, because
we sure as hell didn’t get it. Hardman’s been in the league two years now, plays with Patrick Mahomes,
and is still waiting for his first 100-yard game. He played behind Demarcus Robinson and the ghost of
Sammy Watkins for most of last season, and in the Super Bowl Byron Pringle got more run. So sure,
Chiefs beat reporters are foaming at the possibility Hardman finally inherits the #2 receiving job behind
Tyreek Hill in ’21, and during August’s training camp, they say it finally looks like it’s happening.
But you need to see him regularly beat NFL defenses before you can view him as a pure fantasy
starter.
Hardman’s peaks are fun, like a sampler platter of Hill. In Week 3’s Monday night game against
Baltimore, Hardman’s split to the right in a tight formation and Marcus Peters is playing 12 yards off
him to respect his speed, but Hardman runs an out-and-up, and nobody’s within five yards of him at
the catch. It’s one of the most effortless-looking 50-yard touchdowns you’ll see. If he can do that once,
you’d think he could do it over and over. But the fact is: speed hasn’t been enough to get Hardman open
in his two pro years. He’s gotten outmuscled at the line, sometimes telegraphed his routes making man
coverage against him easier, and he dropped the ball a lot. Hey, film still don’t lie: Mecole Hardman
is a rocket and he has the baddest man on the planet playing quarterback. That upside counts for
something. If he’s all grown up, he can outperform even this improved rank.
60. JALEN REAGOR PHI
Age: 22 • 5’11” • 197 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
31 Rec • 396 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 13.3 AY@T • 26 Routes/G • 20% Slot
11 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 1 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: C • Hands: C- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 49
’20 Final Rank: 90
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
You probably understand why DeVonta Smith will go in the middle rounds of your fantasy draft, higher
than any other Eagles wideout. It’s that new-car smell, it’s the allure of the Heisman, it’s being a top10 overall pick, and it’s our presumption that his skill set will play well in many situations (and our
hope that his training-camp knee injury won’t linger into the season). But of the rest of the Iggles
receivers, why should it be Jalen Reagor we’re tempted to take a late-round gamble on? Why not Travis
Fulgham, who led Philly in receiving yards last year, or Greg Ward, who led them in catches?
The answer is: speed. Reagor is little and he can motor. He’s got that one undeniable thing. Watch him
Week 12 against the Packers: he lines up against Kevin King in man, puts his hand up, then effortlessly
separates from King to roast him for 34 yards. Later in that game, Reagor muffs a punt, recovers it, then
houses it for 73 yards. And that’s all well and good, and it makes people dream of a Brandin-Cooksstyle future, but unfortunately Reagor was invisible or hurt—missing five games with a thumb injury—
for a whole lot of 2020. We can’t judge a dude who tore hand ligaments too harshly, but Reagor came
into the league with concerns about his catching consistency and while he only had one official drop
last year, you see a lot of the ball wiggling around when he hits the ground or traps it to his body, plus
he muffed two of the four punts he returned. There were also scouting reports last year that feared he
had no idea how to run NFL routes. So but okay, all these dings really might wind up dooming Reagor
as a prospect, but there’s no denying if he figures things out and looks a lot better in ’21, he can score
in ways guys like Fulgham and Ward never will. Jalen Hurts might not be the best fit for a presumptive
deep threat, but we never hate it when our fantasy wideouts get the ball and run past everyone. Smith’s
injury boosts Reagor into deep fantasy-bench territory in mid-August. If he flashes early, he can
outperform this rank. If he doesn’t, he’s waiver material.
61. JAMISON CROWDER NYJ
Age: 28 • 5’9” • 177 lbs • Injury: 11
2020 Stats:
59 Rec • 699 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 8.0 AY@T (15th%) • 31 Routes/G • 68% Slot (85th%)
12 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: B- • Hands: B+ • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 53
’20 Final Rank: 38
’21 Ranks Range: 30-40
Jamison Crowder is the athleisure sweatpants you bring to Thanksgiving dinner for postprandial
lounging: you’re not going to impress anybody, but you’ll probably be comfortable. Consistency and
reliability are nothing to sneeze at, and since 2015, Crowder’s been a thoroughly dependable and wholly
unexciting slot receiver. He’s undersized and not very fast, but he’s quick as hell, he doesn’t drop the
ball, and he gets open. Crowder fits the modern NFL game well. Flood defensive zones with route
combinations and set the little guy squirting free. In two seasons with the Jets he has 137 grabs, six of
which have traveled 20+ air yards. He is what he is.
The drama surrounding Crowder for ’21 was whether the Jets would keep him. They signed Corey
Davis to go with Denzel Mims on the outside and drafted Elijah Moore with the 34th overall pick in
April, which seemed to signal that the team would move on from Crowder’s whopping $10 million nonguaranteed base salary. And that probably would’ve been good for everyone involved. Instead, Crowder
and the Jets confusingly renegotiated a one-year deal worth $5.5 million, meaning he’s not going
anywhere. And because it sounds like Moore has legitimately made a case to play on the outside
in addition to the slot, I hiked his rank above Crowder’s during the first Almanac update. If I’m
betting on a fantasy-finish horse race between Crowder and Moore, I might actually place an
even-money wager on Crowder. But his best-case is probably performing as a steady, possessionoriented WR3. I’ll actually rank Moore higher for now with the hope that his unknowns could
give him more valuable upside.
62. CHRISTIAN KIRK ARI
Age: 25 • 5’11” • 200 lbs • Injury: 9
2020 Stats:
48 Rec • 621 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 11.6 AY@T (64th%) • 33 Routes/G • 13% Slot (7th%)
14 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: C • Hands: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 40
’20 Final Rank: 51
’21 Ranks Range: 30-50
Gorillaz, a band that once had the hybrid rock/hiphop world wrapped around its animated little finger,
once sang, “Well, you can’t get what you want, but you can get me.” And what you probably want in your
fantasy draft is DeAndre Hopkins! He’s very good! However, Nuk’s price will be rather exorbitant…so if
you can’t get him….
The real question is whether you want to bother investing in any other Cardinals receiver at all,
regardless of price. As affordable second fiddles go, in terms of talent, Kirk has some appeal. He
really should be more than merely a bubble-screen volume guy. Check out his big play Week 2 against
Washington: it’s not like he runs past Ronald Darby because he’s way faster, but as Kyler Murray
scrambles around and launches it deep, Kirk shows body control and concentration to hold off Darby
while the ball’s in the air, reach up with one arm, trap it and get his feet down: 49-yard gain. It’s
lovely! But it’s also not typical. Pop passes, short outs…Kirk had long stretches where he was a clear
afterthought in this offense: eight games with three catches or fewer. That’s scary when the downfield
stuff comes so infrequently.
The fact is that Kliff Kingsbury’s offense doesn’t seem to want any non-Hopkins WR to be a major
focus. Once again, the Cardinals led the NFL in snaps taken with four wideouts on the field: they had
220, the Bills had 155, and nobody else had more than 87. Kirk gets lost in a sea of KeeSean Johnsons
and Andy Isabellas and in ’21 (presumably) second-round rookie Rondale Moore and A.J. Green’s bleak
hologram. Even if none of these guys outplay Kirk, there’s sure to be enough target cannibalization to
frustrate his owners. You can get him, all right. He deserves to be drafted, even if the Cardinals didn’t
pick up his fifth-year option, and even if he missed a couple practices this August with a slight
shoulder injury. But something has to change for Kirk to contribute every week. (There’s been some
speculation that he’ll get cut at the end of August.)
63. TRE’QUAN SMITH NO
Age: 25 • 6’2” • 210 lbs • Injury: 8
2020 Stats:
34 Rec • 448 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 8.8 AY@T • 27 Routes/G • 52% Slot
14 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: C • End Zone: B+ • Hands: B • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 70
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
After Michael Thomas got hurt in Week 1 of 2020, every doofus and his mom labeled me an idiot for
not ranking Smith higher. “Moron! Don’t you know the Saints are a funnel system? How is Smith not
getting all the receiver targets in an elite offense now?” Well…2020 showed you how. If you can’t even
handcuff running backs anymore, you sure can’t do it with wide receivers, especially if that receiver is
Tre’Quan Smith.
Smith is the kind of athletic, big-bodied wideout who looks good in a uniform but isn’t all that
exceptional (by NFL standards) at playing football. There’s just nothing in his game that dictates he
must be fed the way Thomas is. Thus Smith is an object lesson in the folly of overvaluing situation at
the expense of ignoring what the player can do. Is Smith fast? Not wildly. Is he big? He’s fine, but he
doesn’t wreck anyone in the open field with incredible strength. Is he a waterbug? Absolutely not. We’re
three years in on Tre’Quan Smith. He maxed out at 34 catches in a lost season for Thomas. There has
to be some helium in Smith’s rank as Thomas now seems likely to miss regular-season games because of
June ankle surgery. But don’t go crazy. Do we even know Smith is the Saints’ #2 wideout? Heck, he’s
already missed training-camp time with an undisclosed injury, and Marquez Callaway is lighting
up practice. (Yes, it’s time to write a Callaway profile. Other than Sean Payton, nobody really
knows which one—if either—is favored in a Thomas-free offense, but Smith didn’t play in the
Saints’ second preseason game, and Callaway starred in it, so I’m leaving Smith where he is and
elevating Callaway far above.)
I’m not sure Smith is markedly better than all the other non-Michael-Thomases surrounding him.
Callaway, Deonte Harris, Juwan Johnson…it’s not a real gauntlet to overcome, but neither is Smith the
sort of undeniable talent to fend them off. He’ll lather people up with a long touchdown on a busted
coverage, I’ll tell you to temper expectations on the waiver show, you’ll call me names on Twitter, and
then he’ll go AWOL for three weeks.
64. HENRY RUGGS LV
Age: 22 • 5’11” • 188 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
26 Rec • 452 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 16.9 AY@T • 25 Routes/G • 34% Slot
13 Games • 3 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: D • Hands: B • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 41
’20 Final Rank: 87
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
Hey, at least he got Gregg Williams fired. Ruggs’s game-winning bomb TD to beat the Jets in Week 10
was a highlight in a rookie season not exactly teeming with them. Revisiting Ruggs’s NFL film is quick
work: he had a handful of big plays that reveal his 4.27 speed, and not much else. 43 targets in 13
games is certifiably Keke Couteean! Ruggs invited earnest comparisons to Tyreek Hill last winter—not in
these parts…I hit him with the mixed blessing of a Will Fuller appraisal—and the Raiders took him #12
overall in the 2020 Draft. After one year, he flopped like Tavon Austin. Worse even! Austin’s rookie year
was better!
Ruggs is clearly still an interesting prospect. His every-down home-run potential is real, even if his
route running may not be. (In that regard, the Fuller comparison continues to be illustrative.) Watch
him Week 5 against the Chiefs on a deep shot: he’s so incredibly open that when Derek Carr undercooks
the throw, Ruggs comes back to the ball and just rips it away from Rashad Fenton and it’s still a 46yard gain. Later in the same game, he gets free deep and Carr times it right and Ruggs is gone for a
72-yarder over the top where he’s just faster than everyone and scores. You cannot, as they say, teach
that.
But it sure was discouraging to watch the Raiders spend such a high pick on Ruggs and then build their
downfield passing attack around Nelson Bleeping Agholor. Maybe we’ll look back on a Canton-bound
Henry Ruggs career and decide he needed a year to get his feet wet. Speed guys sometimes do. Agholor
is gone, John Brown’s excellent wheels are aboard, and nobody really knows what this winds up looking
like. There’s overlap between Ruggs and Brown the way there was overlap between Ruggs and Agholor.
I’m sure the Raiders would love Ruggs to work out, and they’ll give him a chance. But they won’t stick
with him forever.
65. JAKOBI MEYERS NE
Age: 25 • 6’2” • 200 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
59 Rec • 729 Rec YD • 0 Rec TD • 10.0 AY@T • 22 Routes/G • 58% Slot
14 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: C • Hands: B+ • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 60
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
The Patriots are run like the Politburo, so we’re always ready to ascribe secret motives to them
and assume they’re playing four-dimensional chess at all times. But at some point, we should
kind of just believe what we see.
For all the misdirection of the team spending huge at tight end (Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith)
and wideout (Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne), it’s been boring ol’ Jakobi Meyers—who
isn’t actually old at all—who continually runs with the first team and has found his way into
targets and catches all the way through training camp. Meyers really does have Old Man Game.
He’s the Al Jefferson of the NFL. He’s slow, he rarely runs routes up the field, he’s smart about
finding underneath spots against zone, and Cam Newton trusted him in 2020 probably more
than any other New England pass catcher. That was a low bar to clear (and Newton might not
be long for the starting gig in ’21), but such quotidian things as “getting open” and “usually
catching the ball” matter.
Were I inclined to place a wager on which Pats receiver leads the team in receptions this year,
I might slap my sawbuck on Meyers. And upon hearing that Meyers just keeps being the team’s
best WR in camp, I decided to get him into the top 80 and write him a profile. And in the second
update, I raised him up further, because every time the Patriots play, it seem Meyers separates
himself more (literally and figuratively) as a possession receiver. He has the makings of a solid
pro, but he shouldn’t be the lead wideout on a good team. His path to strong fantasy relevance
would be the Patriots becoming the kind of dynamic pass offense with Cam Newton or (likelier)
rookie Mac Jones that we don’t immediately believe it will be.
66. GABRIEL DAVIS BUF
Age: 22 • 6’2” • 216 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
35 Rec • 599 Rec YD • 7 Rec TD • 15.1 AY@T • 28 Routes/G • 31% Slot
16 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Elusiveness: C- • End Zone: A- • Hands: B+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 47
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
On paper, the equation makes sense. Take the Bills’ exhilarating 2020 pass offense. Subtract John Brown.
Add 34-year-old Emmanuel Sanders. Factor Gabriel Davis’s seven touchdowns last season. Multiply
by Josh Allen’s ascendance to superstar. How can Davis avoid a monster fantasy leap in his second
professional season?
Well, parts in an elite offense aren’t completely interchangeable. Davis isn’t Brown. You wouldn’t call
him straight-line explosive. His appeal is decent speed and the kind of size and box-out ability that can
lead to red-zone touchdowns. Plus it’s a mistake to assume that one season’s elite offense automatically
carries over into the next—the ’19 Falcons and ’20 Ravens would like to have a word—or to assume that
a reconfigured wideout corps fits exactly the same shape as its predecessor. An offense that has Davis,
Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley and swaps Brown for Sanders probably takes a somewhat different form.
It’s a mistake to assert every one of Brown’s 52 targets last year passes via osmosis to Davis.
But Davis has some ceiling to him, even if he’s probably never going to be an alpha. He surprised
corners with his post-catch speed a few times in ’20, and occasionally showed polish selling short stuff
then going deep. Those seven TDs were inflated: I counted three that were the result of blown coverages
(including one on a halfback pass). But Allen sought him out 11 times with targets to the end zone,
and his Week 2 score against the Dolphins—in which he stayed alive after his initial route, got open,
and made a sicko hands catch parallel to the turf—was a special play. I do think we’d need the Bills to
be excellent on offense again for Davis to partake to a fantasy-starter-worthy degree, but if things break
right I could be convinced I’m a little too low on him.
67. RUSSELL GAGE ATL
Age: 25 • 6’ • 184 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
72 Rec • 786 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 7.1 AY@T (11th%) • 24 Routes/G • 65% Slot (83rd%)
16 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: B- • End Zone: C • Hands: C- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 40
’21 Ranks Range: 36-N/A
When the Falcons traded away Julio Jones this summer, a whole lot of clever people decided they love
Russell Gage. Sure as I live on a yacht with a possum, those folks did the Who-Else-Is-There dance and
became great aficionados of Gage’s oeuvre. By which I mean: they remembered he existed. And I’ll admit:
I don’t know how Atlanta’s misshapen receiving corps will work out behind Calvin Ridley in 2021. But
having watched Gage play, I feel pretty confident saying he’s not an immediate fantasy difference maker.
He’s a settle-down-against zone, run-a-shallow-crosser against man, Randall-Cobb-looking slot player,
and the Falcons might pay lip service to lining him up out wide, but I don’t really believe it. He’s not a
painfully slow runner, but he’s no burner, plus I haven’t ever really seen him make crazy-legged openfield moves. His best play of ’20 was an option touchdown pass to Ridley against the Chargers. He’s a
third wideout on a decent offense, and his ’21 boosters don’t seem to realize that’s exactly what he’ll
be this year. Fourth-overall pick Kyle Pitts almost has to be the team’s second target. We’ve been told
the guy is Jimmy Graham? He’d better show it early and often! Situations matter, of course they do,
and in recent years the Falcons have had a way of engaging in what I like to call Stupid Shootouts™
that often produce stats for unlikely suspects. But even in seven games Julio missed because of injury
last year—with no Pitts around—Gage averaged four catches for 49 yards. I’m hiking his rank in the
first Almanac update to reflect his strong camp performance thus far. But this notion that he’s
inheriting a huge workload just because Julio’s gone isn’t enough to make him more than a very
late-round gambit.
68. DARIUS SLAYTON NYG
Age: 24 • 6’1” • 190 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
50 Rec • 751 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 13.5 AY@T (88th%) • 33 Routes/G • 18% Slot (14th%)
16 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: C+ • Hands: C- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 48
’20 Final Rank: 56
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A
Slayton put together a surprising rookie season in 2019 under unideal circumstances: he flashed bigplay ability and ended up WR33. It was a promising start. But for ’20, I told you I needed more proof
before I’d take the cheese, and in Week 1, Slayton provided it! He: (a) went 6-102-2 against Pittsburgh,
and (b) unlocked Daniel Jones forever and ever.
Just kidding: only one of those things is true. Slayton did have a big Week 1, but scored exactly one
(1) more touchdown and posted one (1) more 100-yard game from Week 2 forward, proving utterly
deniable once a defense showed even a vague interest in shutting him down. That was my fear with this
guy: he’s really fast, so his upside is always a week-winning long score, but his floor is getting milkcartoned. His ’20 game log reads like a tribute to the Triboro Mega Millions drawing: 3-53, 2-41, 1-6….
Heck, even in full-PPR leagues—stop playing in full-PPR leagues!—Slayton did very little to help. The
only unlocking he did for the quarterback was teaching him how to assign frilly Elizabethan uniforms to
players in Madden.
Now the Giants have added Kenny Golladay, a superior downfield receiver, and rookie Kadarius Toney,
a superior all-around athlete is aboard for gadget plays as a rookie, too, though he’s missed two
separate chunks of camp time with injury. If you’re tempted to fall back on the argument that this
means Slayton is more valuable because it means defenses will pay less attention to him, I’d like you to
(a) see the “Crutch Arguments” section of this Almanac, and (b) understand what you’re saying. “This
guy sucks just enough to be an afterthought for defenses” is not the ringing endorsement you think it is.
69. STERLING SHEPARD NYG
Age: 28 • 5’10” • 201 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
66 Rec • 656 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 8.1 AY@T (18th%) • 29 Routes/G • 31% Slot (51st%)
12 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/2 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Elusiveness: A- • End Zone: C+ • Hands: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 56
’20 Final Rank: 52
’21 Ranks Range: 30-50
Shepard always produces some baller film. Week 10 against the Eagles last season, he’s wide left, he
stutter-goes to avoid Avonte Maddox at the jam, escapes toward the sideline, leaps with lovely body
control, and boxes out to make the catch for 27 yards. Week 14 against the Browns, he’s man-on-man
outside against a not-too-shabby corner named Denzel Ward, turns him around and catches a nice
back-shoulder throw for 22. His coordination and ball skills have really never been in doubt. The routerunning polish and quickness Shepard entered the league with six years ago are real, and in 2020, he
played a fewer percentage of his snaps in the slot than ever before.
But let’s be honest. Shepard is a good player, but he’s never going to be in the Phylum like I once
hoped. He’s got a reliable set of hands and he’s a slippery route runner, but he’s never proven to be an
alpha and the Giants know it. This winter they signed Kenny Golladay for $72 million and then drafted
Kadarius Toney #20 overall, so the team has obviously moved on from the idea that either Shepard or
Darius Slayton is The Answer at wideout. I personally think Shepard is significantly more valuable to
an NFL team than Slayton, but I also acknowledge in any given week Slayton has week-winning fantasy
chops Shepard probably can’t touch. (Shepard also has a scary concussion history and missed four games
in ’20 with turf toe.) He’s never had a 900-yard receiving season, and Golladay’s acquisition makes it
likely that he’s headed back more into a slot/underneath role in ’21. He’s a good, winning player who
probably benefits if this Daniel Jones offense stays of the popgun variety. It’s obvious the Giants are
hoping for more.
70. TYRELL WILLIAMS DET
Pod nickname:
Mr. Robot
Age: 29 • 6’4” • 205 lbs • Injury: 18
’21 Ranks Range: 36-N/A • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Unless he’s had new hand units installed, I don’t think there’s much new to learn about Mr. Robot.
If Williams’ torn labrum hadn’t cost him the 2020 season with the Raiders and if we had any tape to
judge that’s not two years old, maybe I’d have developed some scintillating new take. Williams does a
few things pretty well. He can fight for jump balls, he’s a good end-zone presence, and he can turn a
medium-depth target into a long gain with speed. He’s a deep threat with the added wrinkle that he can
also break disingenuous tackle attempts.
But those hands! Somewhere out there, Laquon Treadwell is going, “Learn to catch, man.” Since he
started playing regularly in ’16, Williams is one of five wideouts to have three separate seasons where he
dropped more than five percent of his targets. (The others are Nelson Agholor, Chris Conley, Michael
Crabtree and Julian Edelman.) Williams’s potential for boom weeks is high. He’s tall and pretty fast
and he’s got a 1,000-yard NFL season under his belt. The Lions won’t have any wideout guaranteed
to land above him in the pecking order: it’s a sea of Breshad Perriman and Quintez Cephus and Victor
Bolden and Kalif Raymond. But Jared Goff is a frankly bizarre fit if your top two WRs are the relatively
speedy Williams and Perriman, and it’s easy to imagine Detroit’s new coaches watching Mr. Robot clang
a few off his iron mitts and deciding to get a long look at a younger model. Perriman has been a
nonfactor in camp, so I’m removing him from the top 80. Mr. Robot may be the man. Maybe I’m
underrating him. I don’t think so. I’ll let him come to me on the waiver wire.
71. RONDALE MOORE ARI
Age: 21 • 5’7” • 181 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
golden tate
’21 Ranks Range: 36-N/A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rondale Moore’s fans will tell you about it.
I suppose that’s become true of all rookie wideouts: any quick-twitch kid taken in the NFL
Draft’s first three rounds gathers up disciples who feel their guy is being unjustly ignored.
This summer, it feels doubly true of Rondale Moore. When I didn’t write him a profile in the
Almanac’s first edition and put him in the “also-ran” category, I received (no joke) doubledigit inquiries. Every one was unfailingly kind and polite and I love you all. But the subliminal
message I received was: AM I DUMB???
I’ll get Moore onto the perimeter of deep-league draftability with this first update. That’s largely
because A.J. Green has proven to Cardinals training camp observers to have very little left: he’s
not even in my top-100 any longer. So into the breach steps this short, strapping little burst of
quickness. Rondale may only be 5’7”, but he’s a strong player who’ll yank the ball from traffic
and break arm tackles. He doesn’t have the tippety-top gear the very best outside receivers
have, but he might turn out to be an NFL big-play threat anyway because of his acceleration
and quickness. Moore’s detractors say he reminds them of Tavon Austin: a pro gadget player.
His boosters call him Tyreek Hill. But then, they call almost everyone who’s short and made big
plays in college Tyreek Hill.
Arizona runs so much four-wide, it’s not hard to imagine Moore being on the field a lot as a
rookie. But given how little Kyler Murray focused on anyone after DeAndre Hopkins last year,
it feels like everyone behind Nuk is probably interchangeable. Christian Kirk, Green, Andy
Isabella, KeeSean Johnson…it’s a lot of bodies and they’ll probably take turns week by week. I’ll
buy that Rondale has a chance to poke his head above the others, but I’m probably willing to
wait and see it in September.
72. JOHN BROWN LV
Pod nickname:
Smoked Ham / The Rebellion
Age: 31 • 5’11” • 178 lbs • Injury: 7
2020 Stats:
33 Rec • 458 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 12.0 AY@T • 30 Routes/G • 8% Slot
9 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/4 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: C • Hands: C • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 37
’20 Final Rank: 77
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
There are few players as fun as The Rebellion when he’s going good. He’s quick, twitchy, explosive
and an utter handful against any defender. But in 2020—as is usually the case with Smoked Ham (and
sometimes with smoked ham)—there was meat left on the bone. And that’s because He. Is. Always.
Injured. Maybe it’s the fully cranked-up speed at which Brown plays, or his slender build, or some
combination of both, but the man’s poor body has been his worst enemy.
A season after playing 15 games, finishing as a top-20 fantasy wideout, and justifying both his
substantial contract and my faith in him, Brown peaced-out of seven ’20 contests with a severe ankle
injury. Hamstrings, calves, quads, toes…the man has hurt it all. He still looked fast in a playoff win over
the Colts in January, but the Bills cut him anyway and the Raiders made a relatively modest one-year bet
on him for ’21.
There are dots to connect. Derek Carr just made use of Nelson Agholor as a deep threat last year.
Supposed speedy stud Henry Ruggs was shockingly impotent as a rookie. Maybe every single one of
Agholor’s 23 targets, 11 catches and six TDs that came on throws that traveled 20+ air yards will
go directly to Brown, and he’ll provide excellent upside at a paltry draft-day price. After all, Agholor
finished ’20 as the WR21 in this exact role! But Ruggs will surely get another chance, Hunter Renfrow
is in the slot, and Bryan Edwards has played ahead of Brown on occasion during camp. Brown
missed camp time in August due to an injury, so that might have something to do with his
participation on the second team. Or it’s possible the Raiders have buyers’ remorse—a common
feeling for Messrs. Gruden and Mayock—and plan on cutting Brown September 1. I’m no longer
drafting Brown in a 12-team league, but neither am I ready to jump all over Edwards. It’s
dreadfully difficult to love any Vegas wideout when Darren Waller is really the WR1,
73. MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING GB
Age: 27 • 6’4” • 206 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
33 Rec • 690 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 18.1 AY@T • 27 Routes/G • 32% Slot
16 Games • 2 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/3 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 5 STD/5 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Elusiveness: C+ • End Zone: B • Hands: D • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 79
’20 Final Rank: 44
’21 Ranks Range: 36-N/A
MVS can ghost a game with the best in the business. It’s pretty hard to understand! Physically, he’s not
a scrub. He’s a massive target with speed, and 6-for-85 and a touchdown always lurks. But you never
know when it’s coming, and how many landmine games you’ll stumble over hoping for something good
to happen. He had one or zero catches in seven contests in 2020. Do you know how hard it is to finish
as the WR44 in a season when you caught one or zero balls in seven games?
Valdes-Scantling has talent! And with Davante Adams around, MVS inevitably finds himself in such
obvious single coverage that Aaron Rodgers has often had no choice but to target him, though on any
given play whether MVS will run the right route and/or catch the ball is the stuff of coin flips. Last
year he had the worst drop percentage of any wideout in the league: 11.1% of his targets wound up in a
Duck Hands Moment. (Teammate Allen Lazard was second at 10.9%. And you wonder why A-Rod gets
grouchy.) You’d think a 6’4” dude with a sub-4.4 40 would be a nice candidate for some shots to the
end zone, but last year Rodgers only gave him three such attempts. Listen, Adams used to be a dropprone kid, too, and regularly earned Rodgers’s wrath, and now those two have an incredible rapport.
It’s a good thing that the quarterback appears to know MVS exists. But we’re three seasons into this
apprenticeship, and it’s easy to understand why Rodgers preferred to trade for Randall Cobb than give
MVS the same responsibility as last year. He has upside in ’21, but he could also give you nothing.
74. PARRIS CAMPBELL IND
Age: 25 • 6’ • 205 lbs • Injury: 23
2020 Stats:
6 Rec • 71 Rec YD • 0 Rec TD • 11.6 AY@T • 20 Routes/G • 95% Slot
2 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A? • Elusiveness: A? • End Zone: C? • Hands: C? • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 64
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
We’re officially post-hype on Campbell. It’s Year 3, and dude is stuck on 24 career catches in nine career
games. Either 2021 represents a spectacular buy-low opportunity, or Campbell is simply too brittle to
play in the NFL.
So listen, it didn’t take much time to go through Campbell’s ’20 film. He ran 39 routes all year! In
the opener against Jacksonville, he connected with Philip Rivers on a couple crossers, one anticipation
over-the-shoulder corner route and a couple drags. It was okay. There was one deep shot where he was
open but Rivers wasn’t close. Then in Week 2 against the Vikings, Campbell got a handoff, tried to pivot
to evade a tackle, and injured the MCL and PCL in his left knee badly enough to require surgery. The
Colts kept hinting he might return late in the year, but it never happened. Now in his two-year pro
career, he’s messed up his knee, broken a hand and a foot and torn a hamstring. Awesome.
Was he a major part of Indy’s plans last year? It looked like it. Will he be in ’21? I can’t tell you that.
T.Y. Hilton lollygagged around for three months in ’20, but looked like himself again after Thanksgiving.
If he’s cooked, the Colts don’t have anyone else to stretch defenses. So if Campbell has recovered all
his speed post-surgery, and Carson Wentz’s foot is healed, and he still has the arm and will to be
aggressive down the field, sure: Campbell has potential for late-round upside. If most of your wideout
group is steady but unspectacular, he could be a lottery ticket that pays off.
75. DESEAN JACKSON LAR
Age: 35 • 5’10” • 175 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
14 Rec • 236 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 16.3 AY@T • 24 Routes/G • 17% Slot
5 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 STD/4 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 7 STD/7 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Elusiveness: C+ • End Zone: D • Hands: B • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 54
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Do you blame yourself?
Do you blame yourself?
Well, hey you ! Yeah you !
Will you blame yourself?
Modest Mouse gets it. If you sign up for the DeSean Jackson ride again and by October are wondering
where your season went wrong, I don’t know what to tell you. Jackson’s got a 13-year track record of
simultaneously being one of the league’s premier deep threats, and becoming the Joker. He’ll get hurt.
He’ll say stupid things. He’ll take plays off. He’ll argue about his contract. The theoretical fit with the
new-look Rams is undeniable, but I promise D-Jax will ruin it.
Entering his age-35 season, Jackson has missed more games (30) than he’s played in (18) over the past
three years. His top-end speed is probably still there, and between the Jared Goff jettison and Matthew
Stafford acquisition it’s not outrageous to believe the Rams acquired Jackson because they’ve decided
they need to push the ball deep more frequently. But c’mon. You know how this goes! Something will
happen, because with D-Jax, something always happens. Maybe it’s Van Jefferson proving he can do
the deep stuff just fine. Maybe Jackson’s calf spontaneously combusts while he’s secretly filming an
underground parkour video. For now, starry-eyed beat reporters and Rams coaches are waxing rhapsodic
that a mellowed-out D-Jax, back in his hometown, is finally focused and a model teammate. You are not
allowed to blame them when this ends in tears.
76. RASHOD BATEMAN BAL
Age: 22 • 6’1” • 193 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
Robert woods
’21 Ranks Range: 36-N/A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Bateman feels like a breath of fresh air. There’s a long list of SPARQ legends falsely accused of being
able to play wide receiver, and the Ravens have liberally partaken. In recent memory, Baltimore has
whiffed on Breshad Perriman and then tried it again with Miles Boykin. But Bateman is more receiver
than raw athlete. He looks like a greater-than-the-sum-of-his-parts guy: efficient route runner, strong
hands, decent catch radius, and fine speed and elusiveness. He’s not as big, but he’s got a little bit of
that Michael Thomas thing. He gets himself in good position, he battles with defenders to get into his
routes, and he can line up all over. (Comparing him to Thomas is probably a little aggressive—his most
optimistic assessors compared him to Thomas, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson and Keenan Allen—so
instead I’ll say Robert Woods: a strong, tough, good, reliable weapon all over the field.)
Now let’s not go crazy. The Ravens run it more than anybody (in 2020, they rushed on 55% of
their plays; over the last three seasons, it’s 57.6%), and much of that is out of necessity. Whatever
expectation-tempering I do for Marquise Brown because of Lamar Jackson’s passing limitations,
it clearly applies double for a rookie without a clear role in an offense designed to minimize the
quarterback’s throwing mistakes and maximize his insane running. I’ve spilled a lot of pixels in this
Almanac convincing you we shouldn’t prejudge teams’ situations, depth charts or offensive approaches,
but in Baltimore’s case…I’m kind of making an exception? If Jackson becomes a better, more accurate
and more confident passer outside the numbers and down the field, that might elevate someone like
Bateman right away, and no, I’m actually not saying that’s impossible. I’m willing to be pleasantly
surprised. But if it doesn’t happen, it’s just really difficult to see multiple Ravens wideouts being
regularly startable. Bateman was having a good camp, but went down with a severe groin injury
the second week of August, and will miss multiple weeks of practice. Right now it seems likely
he’ll also miss regular-season time. The good news is that he’s already trotting a little in training
camp, and I’m enthused enough about him to get him back into the top 80 receivers for this
final Almanac edition.
77. AMON-RA ST. BROWN DET
Age: 22 • 6’1” • 195 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
keelan cole
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Amon-Ra isn’t the same size/speed freak his older brother Equanimeous is. He’s at least four
inches shorter—and possibly more, considering he was listed at 5’11” in college—and probably
doesn’t run as fast. But he comes out of college with significantly more polish and fluidity. In
college St. Brown made plays in the middle of the field and also out wide, but it feels likely he’d
struggle against the best outside pro corners. He’s probably either a slot player or a Z: someone
who goes in motion a bunch, lines up away from scrimmage, and thus avoids the big bump.
This preseason, the Lions have mostly used him from the slot and he ran a few nice routes that
shook nickel corners. Even if he doesn’t immediately look like an alpha, he could become a solid
underneath target for Jared Goff.
That Detroit receiving corps seems like a completely unreadable mess. Tyrell Williams could
be the leading candidate to snarf up outside targets, but he’s never been a trustable player.
Breshad Perriman is more rumor than man, having missed time with a minor groin injury and
playing with the Lions second team in camp since his return. Quintez Cephus was last year’s
buzzy model and could also be involved. Other guys like Kalif Raymond, Geronimo Allison and
Victor Bolden might also make the team. St. Brown got early-August noise because the market
knows and sighs at the rest of these guys, while Amon-Ra is a cool name (it’s a bowdlerization
of “Amun-Ra,” the chief deity of the Egyptian empire) and still has that new-car smell. Although
I’ve said on the podcast Detroit’s offense probably won’t be completely horrendous, I’d let all
these dudes slide by in a fantasy draft and be early-season waiver-wire options.
78. EMMANUEL SANDERS BUF
Pod nickname:
The Colonel
Age: 34 • 5’11” • 180 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
61 Rec • 726 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 9.0 AY@T • 25 Routes/G • 29% Slot
14 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 3 STD/3 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Elusiveness: B • End Zone: B • Hands: A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 34
’20 Final Rank: 45
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Manny Sanders was always going to look good in Bills practice. He’s a pro’s pro: one of the NFL’s
quickest and most coordinated “very good” wideouts of the past decade. It’s not surprising that
beat reporters would compare Sanders to Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie and Jake Kumerow
and get a little giddy. The real question over the past few years with the Colonel is: can he
remain healthy. He tore an Achilles’ in 2018. He hobbled around in ’19 with bad ribs. He caught
COVID in ’20. And he’s already been in and out of practice in ’21 with a bad foot. Not awesome
for a 34-year-old accountant. Really not awesome for a 34-year-old professional football player.
As much as I’ve liked Sanders over the years, it’s tough for me to imagine he finds his way
into every-week fantasy trustability. Stefon Diggs is a force that must be fed, regardless of how
much defensive attention comes his way. As an underneath player, Cole Beasley is coming off
an 80-catch season. For as good as Josh Allen was in ’20, John Brown and Gabriel Davis didn’t
do enough to warrant fantasy ownership. Late-career Manny may spark the occasional real-life
comeback and make us take notice, especially if Buffalo increases its four-wideout-set usage.
But the combination of him staying healthy and the Bills remaining committed to using him
every week feels like a stretch. I’ve had Sanders in a lot of leagues over the years, and he was
always a wildly fun player to root for. Now it might actually be better for the Bills’ Super Bowl
aspirations if the younger/faster/bigger Davis can wrest control of the third-receiver gig.
79. ADAM HUMPHRIES WAS
Age: 28 • 5’11” • 195 lbs • Injury: 13
2020 Stats:
23 Rec • 228 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 10.1 AY@T • 22 Routes/G • 78% Slot
7 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/1 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 2 STD/2 PPR
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: D • Hands: B • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
Adam Humphries is your dad’s underwear: tighty-whities, through and through. He’s indistinguishable
from the rest of the Costco-purchased 12-pack he came from, and leaves very little to the imagination.
Humphries, Cole Beasley, Hunter Renfrow, Trent Taylor…it’s the same player, replicated across multiple
realities. Humphries’s most productive season was 2018, in which he benefitted from Jameis Winston
and Ryan Fitzpatrick playing like wild men and furiously rousing themselves from deficits they helped
create. Since then, all Humphries has done is miss 13 games in two Tennessee seasons, operating, when
healthy, as a Kirkland-brand underneath slot binky for Ryan Tannehill.
And now that Humphries has joined Washington, here comes the B.S. minefield:
“Adam Humphries: Fitzpatrick’s WFT Secret Weapon?”
“Humphries Maintains Strong Chemistry with Fitzmagic”
“Humphries Slotted For 100 Arm-Pumping, Try-Hard Catches”
(I may have made up that last one.)
I’m not buying. It’s not just that Fitz doesn’t usually go a full season without being benched. It’s that
Humphries is just a guy, so it wouldn’t matter even if he did. It’s a fair-enough argument that behind
Terry McLaurin, there isn’t a ton of certainty at receiver for the Football Team. But if Curtis Samuel
doesn’t quicken the pulse, Humphries really doesn’t. Look, if you’ve embraced a little too much risk with
your other receivers, I guess Humphries can do the cotton-briefs job of covering your butt. He’ll have an
impossible-to-foresee 6-for-95 game with two uncovered TDs while languishing on your fantasy bench,
and then he’ll submit a month of 3-for-32s. There will be Humphries truthers who pound the table
and shout, “Hey, that’s viable in full-PPR!” and I assure you: that says more about full-PPR than it does
about this player.
80. HUNTER RENFROW LV
Age: 26 • 5’10” • 185 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
56 Rec • 656 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 6.7 AY@T (10th%) • 22 Routes/G • 61% Slot (80th%)
16 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 STD/0 PPR • Top 24 Finishes: 1 STD/1 PPR
Film Grades
Speed: C- • Elusiveness: B+ • End Zone: C • Hands: A • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 71
’20 Final Rank: 64
’21 Ranks Range: 40-N/A
It seems the NFL has gravitated toward three classes of slot receiver: the big-bodied Marques Colston
type, the jetpack-wearing waterbug, and the slow-but-somehow-quick little guy with sure hands and
low ceilings. Renfrow is in the latter class, a 6.7-yard aDOT chain-mover. The offensive fit with Vegas
feels like it couldn’t be better, with Derek Carr’s proclivity to dink and dunk. But freakazoid superstar
tight end Darren Waller also runs many of his routes close to the pocket, and he’s always going to be a
likelier real-life and fantasy bet than Renfrow. Those Who Chase Volume salivated over Renfrow when
he netted 71 targets in only 13 games in 2019, but playing the full 16 last year he only saw 77. The
even bigger splash of cold water was his absence of downfield shots: exactly six passes of 20+ air yards
aimed his way, the same number earned by Donovan Peoples-Jones, who sounds made up.
Renfrow isn’t fast, he beats linebacker and safety coverage with quickness, and he has good hands.
He’s a fine little role player, but he’s simply not the offensive cog some insist he is. During Week 11’s
contest with the Chiefs, Cris Collinsworth gushed, “With all the great talent they have over there, when
the game really gets on the line, the one that [Carr] wants is Hunter Renfrow.” That game was tight
throughout. Renfrow had two catches for 37 yards. He’s a fine player! He’s just okay! Not everyone has
to be some major difference maker! Why am I shouting!
81. Bryan Edwards, LV
82. Allen Lazard, GB
83. Sammy Watkins, BAL
84. A.J. Green, ARI
85. Terrace Marshall, CAR
86. Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE
87. Auden Tate, CIN
88. Van Jefferson, LAR
89. Kadarius Toney, NYG
90. Preston Williams, MIA
91. Amari Rodgers, GB
92. Josh Reynolds, TEN
93. K.J. Hamler, DEN
94. Quez Watkins, PHI
95. Kendrick Bourne, NE
96. Rashard Higgins, CLE
97. Demarcus Robinson, KC
98. Nico Collins, HOU
99. Breshad Perriman, DET
100. Quintez Cephus, DET
1. TRAVIS KELCE KC
Age: 32 • 6’5” • 260 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
105 Rec • 1,416 Rec YD • 11 Rec TD • 8.9 AY@T (85th%) • 57 Snaps/G • 35 Routes/G
15 Games • 10 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 14 • Top 24 Finishes: 14
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Routes: A- • Power: A+ • Hands: B- • Situation: A+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 1
’20 Final Rank: 1
’21 Ranks Range: 1-3
Like quarterback, there’s really no argument at the top of the tight end rolls. You’re picking the Kansas
City Chief. I’ll briefly catalog Travis Kelce’s many virtues because it’s my job, but then we’ll get to what
matters: where to draft him.
Kelce would be great anywhere. As a run blocker he’s a killer. He’s huge and fast and has that everelusive hip swivel, the thing NFL Draft puffers proclaim every TE prospect has, but few actually do: get
to the top of his route, sink one hip or the other, and change direction without telegraphing or slowing
down. The fact that he plays with Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill makes him undeniable. Against
Kelce and Hill, defenses have an impossible choice, and each guy benefits.
Things can go wrong. Of course they can! Even for great players, sometimes touchdowns don’t work
out—Kelce only scored five times in 2019—and without TDs, a TE will never justify a top-24 selection.
Also Kelce turns 32 in October. No age-32+ tight end has 1,000 yards receiving since Tony Gonzalez
in ’08, and he’s the only guy to do it this century. One of the younger studs at this position could make
a leap but if we’re setting odds, Kelce is a Secretariat-level favorite to lead his position for the fourth
straight campaign.
In ’21 the pressure will be great to select Kelce in the first round. While I don’t think I’d personally
do it, this is probably the closest I’ve come to wavering. I’m not blind! Tight end is a dying position.
There are a few great practitioners of the all-around game, and then a bunch of impressive athletes who
aren’t special enough football players to justify a central role. They simply become one of four or five
potential targets. They’re running open against zone in the middle of the field? Cool, so are a bunch of
wide receivers. If we’re told to draft the scarce positions, well, hell: what’s more scarce than a tight end
you can actually trust? The question is Value Over Replacement. Does Kelce do enough to surpass the
replacement-level fantasy TE compared to a running back or wideout you’re considering?
The answer still has historically been no. Tight ends usually don’t. Even last year, clearly the finest of
Kelce’s career, he finished as the VBD 15th-best overall player. It’s the highest VBD result for a TE
since Jimmy Graham in ’13, it’s tremendous, but it’s still not top 12. Now, the reason you might feel
the gravitational pull to take Kelce at the back half of the first round is his multi-year sensation of
inevitability compared to the injury-prone masses at other positions. It would be pretty dumb of me to
say it can’t work, not least because so far in his career, Kelce doesn’t miss time to injury. I don’t have
Kelce ranked as a first-rounder. (But I do have him ahead of more WRs than ever before.) If you believe
in your ability to pick out the second-, third- and fourth-round RBs and WRs who’ll outperform their
draft neighbors, take Kelce, bank those points, and scramble at the more random positions.
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
It’s pretty easy to call Kelce your favorite tight end for fantasy. He’s the best, and
there’s not that much to say. He’s the only tight end I follow on social media. I’m
wowed by his fashion, his significant other is lovely, every week he’s got a new pair of
Jordans which I’m envious of because I can’t get them without using a bot. But you
all know Kelce is great. Let’s just use him as an excuse to indict all tight ends. This
position. It’s like going to the grocery aisle and looking at cans of beans. There’s 15
different brands of beans, and you look at the pictures and you look at the labels and
you think you know which one you’ll like best, but in the end, you go home and they’re
all gonna taste the same when you throw ’em in the pot. As a position for fantasy?
Tight end needs to go on a lunch date with placekicker and never come back.”
2. GEORGE KITTLE SF
Age: 28 • 6’4” • 250 lbs • Injury: 10
2020 Stats:
48 Rec • 634 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 7.3 AY@T (38th%) • 53 Snaps/G • 26 Routes/G
8 Games • 8 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 8
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Routes: A • Power: A- • Hands: B+ • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 2
’20 Final Rank: 19
’21 Ranks Range: 1-3
George Kittle’s 2020 season is a good reminder that if you or I were a professional tight end, it would
take us one quarter of one game to become a cloud of vaporized organs. To be a 250-pound human
with shoulders like an elephant’s and a waist like a debutante’s, to run a 4.5 40 and be able to jump out
of the stadium, and to use these impossible qualities to sprint across a field while pointedly refusing
to look at similarly-sized humans attempting to perform a decapitation…it’s probably not the vocation
of a sane person. And if Kittle can get as banged up as he did last year—a sprained knee followed by a
fractured foot that combined to cost him half the season—we would be ground into a delightful musky
paste some unsuspecting schmo would use to braise his barbecue.
Kittle’s injury problems the past two years have at least temporarily removed him from Travis Kelce’s
fantasy stratus, but he has every bit the upside of the Chiefs’ star does. No TE runs a go-route like
Kelce, but Kittle comes close: he’s probably not the fastest, he’s probably not the biggest, but he has
this combination of strength and balletic moves and terrific hands (and a willingness to get blasted by
safeties) that encourages one-on-one shots. And in the dipsy-doo 49ers offense that prizes misdirection
above all else, Kittle gets more flips and screens and throwbacks behind the line than any other
TE. There’s no good way to tell you how ’20 will influence ’21: do any of Kittle’s physical maladies
represent long-term risks, and/or do the Niners treat him differently to keep him healthier? For the
moment, I’m assuming no and no, but I’m allowing the sour taste of what it was like to draft Kittle in
the second round last year to leaven his rank just a tinge. Nobody expects Jimmy Garoppolo to stay
under center all that long this season—the Iowa Hawkeyes reunion between Kittle and C.J. Boatyard
that so excited Andy Behrens is blissfully past—and injecting wildly untested rookie Trey Lance into the
equation does add another variable. But that’s all right. Draft great players. Kittle is one.
3. DARREN WALLER LV
Age: 27 • 6’6” • 255 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
107 Rec • 1,196 Rec YD • 9 Rec TD • 7.9 AY@T (66th%) • 59 Snaps/G • 31 Routes/G
16 Games • 9 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 10 • Top 24 Finishes: 14
Film Grades:
Speed: A+ • Routes: B • Power: C • Hands: C+ • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 5
’20 Final Rank: 2
’21 Ranks Range: 1-5
He backed it up. Darren Waller emerged from football purgatory in 2019 to become a factor, and his
film was legit and I said so. But the Raiders reinvigorated their receiving corps before ’20 and it seemed
logical maybe his workload could regress a bit. Instead, all the young Vegas wideouts flopped (looking
at you, Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards) and Waller became more than just a possession receiver. He
became the team’s best slot guy, its best screen guy, its most dangerous player with the ball in his hands,
and a bona fide superstar. He led all NFL tight ends in receptions and lapped the TE field in yards after
contact. Pop in the tape. He’s legit.
And start with Week 2 against the Saints, because that’s the moment the NFL almost literally sidled
up to the bar and said, “Well, now. What’s all this we’re hearing about this Darren Waller guy?!?” New
Orleans’s plan was to match Malcolm Jenkins against Waller, and Jenkins is in his early 30s so that’s no
longer the compliment it once was. And Waller ATE. HIS. LUNCH. The Monday Night crew literally
kept saying, “They’re gonna need a new plan against Waller,” and the Saints never really came up with
one. Waller would get to the top of his route and Jenkins would jam him and Waller would just explode
away. As the game progressed, you could see Jenkins backing off, trying to anticipate routes, and Waller
would just cut and sprint away even more wide open. In the fourth quarter, Jenkins moved over and slot
corner P.J. Williams got the assignment, but P.J. Williams isn’t good either, and Waller ran away from
him for a long gain. Finally bracket coverage arrived, and obviously if you have two guys on you, the
ball’s not finding you as much. But that one game’s progression set the stage for the remainder of the
year. Waller was the first aerial weapon defenses had to account for.
There’s a world where Ruggs and Edwards figure it out, and suddenly the Raiders have a dynamic,
multilevel attack where everyone scores enough to be usable. Of course, that would also require Derek
Carr to be better than he’s been…in his life. If there’s a limitation to Waller in ’21, that’s probably it:
the quarterback is merely competent, and the offense has to prove it has more reliable pieces before
defenses are willing to let Waller kill them every week. It isn’t great that Waller missed at least the
first two weeks of camp—presumably because of injury though the Raiders haven’t confirmed
it—but I haven’t moved him in my ranks. And so far that seems like a good move: the Raiders
welcomed Waller back to camp in the third week of August.
4. MARK ANDREWS BAL
Age: 26 • 6’5” • 256 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
58 Rec • 701 Rec YD • 7 Rec TD • 10.1 AY@T (90th%) • 42 Snaps/G • 22 Routes/G
14 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 • Top 24 Finishes: 9
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 4
’20 Final Rank: 4
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Routes: B+ • Power: C • Hands: B- • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüüü
’21 Ranks Range: 4-10
I’ve got nothing personal against Mark Andrews. I’m ranking him the fourth-best player in the world
at his position! By golly, if that qualifies as “being mean” to a player, you do not want to hear how
my neighbors talk about my guitar playing. However, I think Mark Andrews doesn’t live in the freaky
neighborhood that the men above him on this list occupy. I think way more of his value comes from
situation than the übermenschen tight ends of the world.
And so far, that hasn’t mattered much. Andrews has been TE2 and TE4 the past two seasons. His
situation has aligned perfectly: a quarterback who isn’t always comfy throwing it outside the numbers,
a WR corps that has no appreciable depth, and a running game that distracts linebackers more than any
other. I’m not trying to tell you just any big body could do what Andrews has done, because he’s good.
But he’s not undeniable, plus as you’ll see below, raw point totals at THE TIGHT END POSITION were
down last year.
Andrews never surpassed 100 yards in a game in 2020, topped 80 yards once, and finished below 40
yards six times. He paid off in terms of touchdowns, and that’s not nothing: I’m no math whiz, but 12
end-zone targets in a season where you play 14 games means you get a chance to score nearly every
week. One of the most common things you see on Ravens film is Lamar Jackson fixating on Andrews,
looking at him as he runs through a first window, holding it (probably too long) and waiting for him to
get to a second window. Andrews had some highlight, circus-type catches last year; he’s not, like, Jack
Doyle plodding around out there. But! There’s a risk that keeps Andrews out of my top three, and barely
above the less-proven guys below him on this list: what happens if the Ravens’ promise to evolve as an
offense comes true? Andrews will surely be good—and useful to his team on a play-by-play basis—but he
might not find the end zone so much. If that happens, spending a third- or fourth-round fantasy pick on
him will not wind up sounding very good. (Sort of like my guitar playing.)
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
How can we be so casual about a dude who just
finished as the TE4?
We probably romanticize how tight ends used to score. First off, other than Gronk in 2011 and
Graham in ’13, we’ve really never had a TE who proved worthy of being a first-round fantasy
pick. And it’s not like the TE10 in any year has ever provided more than, say, five or six standardleague fantasy points per week. But ’20 was particularly dismal, even higher up in the rolls. Travis
Kelce’s 208 points was the most any TE has scored since Graham seven years earlier, but in most
any other year, Mark Andrews—the TE4 with 112 points—wouldn’t have earned plaudits:
Season
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Top TE
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce
Rob Gronkowski
Travis Kelce
Rob Gronkowski
Rob Gronkowski
Top TE Point Total
157
192
158
138
184
184
Where Andrews 2020 Would’ve Ranked
8th
6th
5th
7th
9th
10th
Kittle and Ertz got hurt, pushing everyone up a couple spots, and everyone from TE4 down—
Andrews, Hockenson, Gesicki, Thomas, Gronk—finished within eight overall fantasy points of
each other (a.k.a. half-a-point per week). Basically, if Andrews hadn’t caught a 31-yard Week 11
TD pass, he’d have finished TE8. (To be fair, he also missed two games with COVID, or he’d have
climbed higher.) The point has never been to slag Andrews, but to not be blinded by his annual
rank.
5. T.J. HOCKENSON DET
Age: 24 • 6’5” • 247 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
67 Rec • 723 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 7.0 AY@T (26th%) • 45 Snaps/G • 27 Routes/G
16 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 12
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Routes: B+ • Power: B • Hands: A- • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 9
’20 Final Rank: 5
’21 Ranks Range: 4-12
I ranked Hockenson TE9 last summer and he finished TE5, but I still feel like I spent all season
apologizing for him. He just never quite looked like one of Those Guys. There are flashes on his film.
He’s toolsy and maneuverable, he’ll withstand a big hit (check out Week 2 down the field against the
Packers where he gets blasted but survives and keeps going), he got three straight targets from the 1
Week 6 in Jacksonville, he scored on a shovel pass Week 14, he drew interference penalties down the
field…all these moments where the Lions looked motivated to prove he’s an elite weapon, but it never
quite happened, even with Kenny Golladay absent. A couple of Hockenson’s midseason touchdowns came
in basura time losing by multiple TDs, he seemed to hurt his shoulder Week 11 against Carolina—I
exerted a bunch of energy wanting to believe Hockenson would put it all together in Year 2 and he
didn’t.
Listen, all the young TEs on this list are still works in progress. Hockenson is 24 and two years in the
league, and we consume so much oxygen talking about how steep that positional learning curve is. No
verdict is in. It’s just that he’s teetering. The 2021 season will probably tell us if he’s Jason Witten or
if he’s Tyler Eifert. A lot of beat reporters and analysts are gonna look at Breshad Perriman and Tyrell
Williams and give you the ol’ “Who Else Is There” line, which is particularly saucy since if we’re judging
things by situation, we have to acknowledge that Jared Goff fully sucked consistently hitting his TEs in
Los Angeles. Come to think of it, the legion of crutches is probably coming for Hockenson; how long
until someone tells you, “Well, obviously, the Lions will always be playing from behind, so they’ll have
to throw!” I see isolated moments on film that make me believe Hockenson will soon live up to being a
#8 overall pick, and I don’t mind drafting him hoping for a Year 3 leap. Just realize: the talk you’ll hear
about his “Pro Bowl 2020 season” is fluff. He needs to understand routes and leverage better. If he stays
at his same level in ’21, he’s going to disappoint your fantasy team.
6. KYLE PITTS ATL
Age: 21 • 6’6” • 240 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
jimmy graham
’21 Ranks Range: 5-24 • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üüü
I once got dragged to a Bush concert. They suck. Legend has it they were going nowhere until some
record exec saw Gavin Rossdale’s headshot. Whatever, I went to this concert not because I wanted to see
the headliner, but because the Toadies were the opener. And the Toadies shredded our faces off. It was
one of the great sets I’ve ever seen. We were screaming for encores. It was awesome. And you could feel
when Bush finally took the stage, they were like, “Uh, how do we follow that?”
That is almost certainly Kyle Pitts’s fate. Not that he can’t be great. He’s the highest-drafted tight end in
NFL history (#4 overall), and the people who spend their lives trying to project how college kids will
translate to the pros say he’s got the upside to be a Hall-of-Famer. Maybe that’s right. Highly drafted
TEs like T.J. Hockenson and Eric Ebron came into the league with raves, but not the kind of raves Pitts
is getting. Yet in some ways he can never win in Atlanta, because of the utter mess surrounding Julio
Jones’s departure. It seems like no matter what becomes of Pitts’s career, a subset of Falcons fans will
always say, “Yeah, well, he’s no Julio.”
And of course, that’s unfair for several reasons, not least because they don’t play the same position. But
if Pitts is the greatest prospect his position’s ever known, was basically swapped out one-for-one with
Julio, and was selected in lieu of grabbing a franchise quarterback, he can really only justify his hype by
turning out to be…Antonio Gates? Tony Gonzalez? Gronk? That is a massive ask, especially in his rookie
campaign. I understand the temptation to shoot for upside in a standard fantasy league; if all these
mid-round TEs are all likely to land like wet farts, why not draft the generational rookie and hope? “It’s
Calvin Ridley and no one else! There are 150 targets sitting there for Pitts! They invested so much in
him!” Okay. Fine. Sometimes that pans out. But there’s a world where Pitts has to be eased in, and last
year’s big acquisition in Atlanta Hayden Hurst steals enough action to be annoying. Just look below at
the recent production of first-year TEs! I’m sure there will be moments in 2021 where Pitts looks like a
crazy-fast mismatch. But it’s hard to be consistent in the NFL right away. In redraft, I think you have to
stick to your board and let the kid come to you. In dynasty? He’s a borderline top-five rookie selection
at a vanishing position. Is he vastly superior to Hockenson and Ebron? I guess I’m a little skeptical of
the hype machine, but we can hope: that Pitts is more “Possum Kingdom” than “Everything Zen.”
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
Rookie tight ends, huh?
This is a huge chart. And I’m sorry. But it’s so striking. “First-year tight ends tend to struggle” isn’t
just something people say for their health. It’s been true basically forever. Tony Gonzalez started
zero games as a rookie. It’s just really hard. Anyway, here’s an exhaustive list of every TE drafted
in the first round since 2001, and how they fared in their first seasons:
Player
T.J. Hockenson
Noah Fant
Hayden Hurst
O.J. Howard
Evan Engram
David Njoku
Eric Ebron
Tyler Eifert
Jermaine Gresham
Brandon Pettigrew
Dustin Keller
Greg Olsen
Vernon Davis
Marcedes Lewis
Heath Miller
Kellen Winslow
Ben Watson
Dallas Clark
Jeremy Shockey
Daniel Graham
Jerramy Stevens
Todd Heap
Rookie Season
2019
2019
2018
2017
2017
2017
2014
2013
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2006
2005
2004
2004
2003
2002
2002
2002
2001
Draft Pick
8th
20th
25th
19th
23rd
29th
10th
21st
21st
20th
30th
31st
6th
28th
30th
6th
32nd
24th
14th
21st
28th
31st
Fantasy Finish
32nd
16th
57th
17th
5th
22nd
45th
29th
21st
25th
14th
20th
23rd
47th
11th
79th
93rd
25th
3rd
43rd
23rd
37th
Evan Engram and Jeremy Shockey. Two guys out of 22. That’s bananas! But I’ll do you one better.
Here’s a list of the absolute best rookie TE seasons since ’01, heedless of when the player got
drafted:
Player
Rob Gronkowski
Evan Engram
Jeremy Shockey
Aaron Hernandez
Hunter Henry
John Carlson
Tim Wright
Rookie Season
2010
2017
2002
2010
2016
2008
2013
Fantasy Points
113
110
97
97
94
93
87
What Place In 2020?
4th
5th
10th
10th
10th
11th
14th
Even going by 2020’s mediocre standards for TEs, only the two highest-scoring rookies of the
21st century would’ve even registered as “above average” last season. For heaven’s sake, the
seventh-best rookie TE of the past 20 years was the immortal Tim Wright and his 571 yards and 5
TDs! I’m not saying Pitts can’t do it. But he sure would be bucking the trend.
7. DALLAS GOEDERT PHI
Age: 26 • 6’5” • 256 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
46 Rec • 524 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 8.7 AY@T (83rd%) • 52 Snaps/G • 27 Routes/G
11 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 6
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Routes: B+ • Power: A- • Hands: A- • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Pod nickname:
God Mode
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 19
’20 Final Rank: 20
’21 Ranks Range: 4-12
Okay, God Mode. Time to make me look smart.
So let’s begin by making a statement I might have to change in some later edition of this Almanac:
Zach Ertz is still a Philadelphia Eagle. So far as I know, Ertz hasn’t left a dookie on Nick Sirianni’s
desk yet. The bridge might not be totally burned. But Ertz was Carson Wentz’s boy. (Long live the ’tz
Brigade...and someone get me Chris Manhertz and Mitchell Schwartz on the phone!) He was mad about
a contract restructure a couple years back, and he’s got very little guaranteed money after 2021. Plus
there’s this Dallas Goedert guy I keep nattering on about.
Oh, right, this is a Dallas Goedert Appreciation profile. I think he’s gonna be really good! We got a taste
in Week 1 of ’20 when both Philly tight ends were functional and Wentz hadn’t yet melted: a wow play
with Goedert running out of the slot man-on-man against linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis where Goedert
makes one move and dusts the defender, but has to look back over his other shoulder and adjust to the
deep ball and does it seamlessly. Alas, he hurt his ankle early in Week 3 and missed a month, and by
the time he returned, Ertz was hurt but the locker room was on fire. Wentz had a half-dozen open deep
shots to Goedert before his benching and biffed most of them. The Week 12 Seahawks game was the
one moment where I thought: yup, there it is, you can’t fake that. Stuff where (like all year) Wentz was
under immense pressure and threw inaccurate passes and Goedert made awesome adjustments. You’ve
heard me say it for a couple years now. I think Goedert has that thing: the game sense, the movement…a
lot of the same stuff we saw from Ertz when he had to elevate above the Brent Celeks of the world.
Yes we should have concerns about the quarterback. Jalen Hurts wasn’t ready to start NFL games at
the end of last year, and that colors the way we look at the entire Philly offense. But to me, Goedert’s
potential to do the George-Kittle/Hunter-Henry thing and prove himself undeniable makes me willing to
settle on him. If I wait for the middle rounds to grab a TE, he might just be my guy, and his rank goes
up if and when Ertz gets traded.
8. NOAH FANT DEN
Age: 24 • 6’4” • 249 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
62 Rec • 673 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 6.6 AY@T (16th%) • 47 Snaps/G • 26 Routes/G
15 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 11
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Routes: C+ • Power: B • Hands: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 10
’20 Final Rank: 13
’21 Ranks Range: 5-15
Two years in, Fant’s career has paralleled college teammate T.J. Hockenson’s to an even more
uncomfortable degree than my looks have paralleled George Clooney’s. (Oops, that was a typo. That
should’ve read “Seth Green.” ) First-round pick. Pretty significant rookie-year flop. Huge second-year
opportunity after their teams’ #1 wideouts suffered season-ending injuries. And neither quite popped.
You can string together a good highlight reel for Noah Fant from 2020. He started the year with redzone touchdowns in back-to-back games. He had a crazy tip-it-to-himself catch Week 2 against the
Steelers on a Drew Lock overthrow. Early against the Chiefs Week 13 he split wide against corner
Bashaud Breeland pure man-on-man, and roasted Breeland on a fly pattern for a deep gain. Linebackers
have a hard time dealing with his speed, especially coming out of breaks on short crossers. But for
someone who can reach such peaks? The Broncos just didn’t feature him. Part of that must’ve been
because of a high-ankle sprain he suffered in Week 4—which caused him to miss the next game and
hobble off the field a couple times thereafter—plus he barely played after starting Week 14 because of a
non-COVID illness. But Fant is one more case where we were promised the kind of unmatchable stud
athlete who’d dominate simply because of his running and leaping, and so far it hasn’t happened.
Would we rather see guys like Hockenson and Fant exceed four catches per game right away? Of course,
and the fact that they haven’t makes us wonder if they ever will. But having them submit the occasional
dominant play in their early years at least allows us to dream. Whether it’s Teddy Bridgewater (who’ll
start Week 1) or Drew Lock, Fant won’t have a great player throwing him the rock in ’21, plus
Courtland Sutton returns and hopefully Jerry Jeudy figures some stuff out. It’ll take an appreciable
workload leap borne of stuff we can’t see—like practice and meeting-room habits—but yes, sure, if Noah
Fant comes out dealing this September, his draft-day price could end up looking like a bargain. That
is, of course, if the vague leg injury that plagued him through the latter parts of training camp
don’t linger into the season. (The Broncos so far don’t seem concerned that he’s in danger of
missing Week 1.)
9. ROBERT TONYAN GB
Age: 27 • 6’5” • 237 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
52 Rec • 586 Rec YD • 11 Rec TD • 8.5 AY@T (81st%) • 38 Snaps/G • 21 Routes/G
16 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 11
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Routes: C+ • Power: B+ • Hands: A- • Situation: A+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 3
’21 Ranks Range: 5-20
The expectations game breeds foolishness. If a once-heralded prospect tight end like O.J. Howard or
David Njoku went out and scored 11 TDs on 52 catches in his third year, draft gurus would’ve already
dislocated their shoulders patting themselves on the back. “Obviously the gifts that made them firstround picks have finally manifested, and now a bigger overall workload will surely follow! We are so
smart!” Instead, because Robert Tonyan is an undrafted dude from Indiana State, his summer 2021
analysis boils down to two words. Touchdown. Regression.
Tonyan was a super-deep sleeper of mine in ’19 (alas, not ’20) but I’ll admit I was mostly connecting
dots. As with most rookie TEs, I didn’t buy third-rounder Jace Sternberger as an immediate a factor, so
I went looking for a different Aaron Rodgers target and it didn’t work out. (Tonyan caught 10 passes
that season, while Sternberger caught zero.) By the time ’20 rolled around, I figured maybe the moreheralded Sternberger would be the sneaky play…I only ranked him TE23, but I didn’t rank Tonyan at
all. Have I mentioned that the NFL Draft isn’t an exact science? In camp Tonyan snuck past Sternberger
and never gave up the starting role (it helped that Sternberger had two drops in Week 1...bye!).
I get it: that’s a difficult-to-maintain TD ratio. But Tonyan did some other things. Week 7 against the
Texans he ran a go route out of a bunch formation and made a diving shoestring catch. Week 8 against
the Vikings he got interfered with down the field or he’d have scored an 82-yarder. Four of his scores
traveled 20+ air yards. That’s not nothing! But, well. Some skepticism is warranted. Tonyan isn’t one
of those get-open-anywhere-on-the-field kind of TE athletes. Stats don’t tell full stories: on all four
of those long scores I just mentioned, the defense kind of just lost track of him and let him run free.
I actually don’t think Tonyan is the kind of dude who’ll use double-digit TDs to justify seven or eight
targets per week. He really is a complementary player, and therefore the name Marcedes Lewis leaps to
mind. (In ’10, in his fifth NFL season, Lewis scored 10 times…and then scored 19 TDs total over the
ensuing decade.) Rodgers must return for Tonyan to retain any semblance of fantasy value, and even
then: you’ll probably need more TD luck.
10. MIKE GESICKI MIA
Age: 26 • 6’6” • 250 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
53 Rec • 703 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 10.8 AY@T (95th%) • 39 Snaps/G • 27 Routes/G
15 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 • Top 24 Finishes: 12
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Routes: C • Power: D • Hands: B+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 13
’20 Final Rank: 6
’21 Ranks Range: 6-20
Find something you love as much as the metrics people love Mike Gesicki. Because Gesicki is one of
those vaunted “three-sigma” testers from the Underwear Olympics, the instant he does anything good in
a football game, my mentions blow up. See? See? We told you! What an athlete! What a player!
And I’m not here to tell you Gesicki didn’t have a decent third year. Tune into Gesicki Week 2 against
the Bills. Two first-half seam routes. A lightning delay followed by a deep out thrown into double
coverage where he got rocked and hung on, followed by a one-handed catch thrown way behind his
earhole, followed by a just-about-basura-time-but-not-quite red-zone TD pass that shouldn’t have been
thrown, but Gesicki somehow held off good coverage to make the catch. It was possible to believe all the
fans of stopwatches and those goofy jump-measuring gizmos were right. Unfortunately in his next five
games combined, Gesicki had eight catches for 129 yards, 70 of which came on a skyhook throw from
Ryan Fitzpatrick when the defense forgot about Gesicki. In that span, he had a long drop against the
Rams, got airmailed from the 1 by Tua Tagovailoa, drew P.I. in the end zone, but largely didn’t get open.
We can’t lay all this at Tua’s feet. If FitzMagic’s shot of adrenaline to the heart can’t rev you up, you
might not be Young Jimmy Graham.
It’s not too late. The Dolphins have a plan on offense and it involves a lot of speed. Gesicki himself is
a glorified slot receiver, DeVante Parker can run, and Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle are lightning. I’ve
seen enough from Gesicki over his three professional seasons to believe he’s not yet a great football
player; all that athleticism hasn’t really led to him torching man coverage as often as you’d think. So for
now I think he’d need this Tua-led group to become a wagon to vault into a difference-making fantasy
season. (But, oh, that vault! If he does it wearing spandex, think of the metrics-nerd rapture!)
11. LOGAN THOMAS WAS
Age: 30 • 6’6” • 250 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
72 Rec • 670 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 7.4 AY@T (45th%) • 61 Snaps/G • 37 Routes/G
16 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 8 • Top 24 Finishes: 10
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Routes: B • Power: D • Hands: A • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
How you really should know
That it’s never too late
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 7
’21 Ranks Range: 8-20
To get up and go
“Doing The Unstuck” is kind of a chipper song for The Cure, even if it is about ending a relationship.
And when it comes to Logan Thomas, being chipper about not being too late seems about right. Dude
came into the league as a decorated collegiate quarterback and crashed out of the league after playing 17
snaps as a rookie. He spent two seasons in the wilderness learning how to play tight end, came back in
’17 and bounced around three years as a tertiary TE. This is not the profile you expect for a breakout
fantasy starter. But at age 30, it looks like that’s what Thomas is.
He was Washington’s starter from Day One in 2020, ahead of such luminaries as Jeremy Sprinkle and
Temarrick Hemingway, and nobody’ll ever mistake him for Gronk as a blocker, but as an intermediate
route-runner he’s pretty good. He’s fast, but Washington didn’t send him down the field that often…
he was a zone beater and quick-seam artist, maybe because that worked best with Alex Smith. What
stood out to me most on Thomas’s film was his hands: he had several absolute full-extension highlightreel type grabs, a toe-tapping TD in the back of the end zone Week 6 against the Giants, a one-handed
thrown-behind-me catch Week 13 against the Steelers…you’d never look at this guy and think he used
to be a QB. The ball skills are pretty spectacular.
How will things work for Thomas with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center? Well, FitzPumpkin had a nice
connection with Mike Gesicki, but generally doesn’t have a long history of maximally using TEs. Plus
it’s worth noting that Thomas ran two-thirds of his routes in ’20 out of the slot (and 67 more slot
routes than any other TE), so it’s possible the Curtis Samuel acquisition affects him more than anyone
else. Still, hands like that, good size, decent speed…a repeat performance for a chipper story is possible.
12. ROB GRONKOWSKI TB
Pod nickname:
Formerly Skinny Gonk
Age: 32 • 6’6” • 268 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
45 Rec • 623 Rec YD • 7 Rec TD • 10.7 AY@T (92nd%) • 48 Snaps/G • 22 Routes/G
16 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 • Top 24 Finishes: 9
Film Grades:
Speed: D • Routes: C • Power: A+ • Hands: B+ • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 8
’20 Final Rank: 8
’21 Ranks Range: 6-18
How devalued is tight end for fantasy? In 2020, the top 12 ADP TEs played 168 of a possible 192
games, and reached double-digit fantasy points in 45 of them (or just over one quarter). And 11 of
those 45 double-digit-point games were Travis Kelce! That means the other TEs drafted to be fantasy
starters went 34-for-153, or 22%. We saw fewer than 100 total double-digit fantasy points games from
any tight end, whereas a decade ago we regularly used to get 120 to 130. You either have to pay for a
superstar and pray—didn’t work last year with Kittle and Ertz!—or just take a warm body and adjust on
the fly.
At age 32, Gronk’s body still qualifies as warm, but he’s as much a blocker now as he is a receiver. His
22 routes run per game matched Mark Andrews for the fewest among name-brand TEs (Robert Tonyan
ran even fewer per game, but that’s because he’s really not a completely full-time player). At this point,
Gronk might actually provide the Buccaneers more marginal benefit as one of the greatest blocking TEs
in NFL history than as a receiver. He’s not a volume guy anymore because he doesn’t separate at all,
but counterintuitively he led all tight ends in targets and receptions that traveled 20+ air yards, because
Tom Brady feels absolutely comfortable simply lofting up 50-50 balls and assuming Gronkowski will
get them. Gronk’s ’20 highlight reel consists of downfield passes that couldn’t have been more perfect
had Brady asked Giselle to walk them over and hand them to the Beefy Buffalo, whereupon Gronk just
wrestles the throw away from whatever hapless defender is hanging all over him. We should remember
that O.J. Howard is still in Tampa, having recovered from a torn Achilles’ suffered in Week 5, so Gronk
could be due even less receiving work in ’21. But as long as Brady’s in town, you can still try drafting
Gronkowski’s warm body. At least watching him is pretty fun!
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
You want to know the truth about latter-day Gronk? I can barely look at him. And you
want to know why? I’ll tell you why. This is a recent phenomenon. Last spring, when
Gronk came out of retirement to sign with the Bucs, the team put out this video of
Brady blowing a horn, and then Gronk running over like he heard the horn, like he’s
some kind of obedient dog or something, and in the video he’s like, ‘I’m here to
play, boss!’ I still haven’t gotten over it. Have some shame, man! I had second-hand
embarrassment, and now it’s all I can think of when I watch him. He’s slow, he mostly
blocks, and yet he’s still Brady’s bubby. ‘Ready to play, boss!’ Pound sand, moron.”
13. IRV SMITH MIN
Age: 23 • 6’2” • 242 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
30 Rec • 365 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 8.4 AY@T (76th%) • 39 Snaps/G • 21 Routes/G
13 Games • 3 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 6
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Routes: B • Power: C- • Hands: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 25
’20 Final Rank: 21
’21 Ranks Range: 6-18
How can you tell Irv Smith is finally headed for a breakout season? Because Mike Zimmer is talking
crap about him.
When Kyle Rudolph shuffled out of Minnesota, it was natural folks looked to Smith as the Vikings’
main man at tight end. He’s a second-round pick who had some fine moments in his second season. His
speed leaps off the tape, he’s already savvy about when to power down running crossing routes against
zone, and while I do not love Kirk Cousins, I watch a play like Week 14 against the Buccaneers when
the Vikings run three verticals with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Smith—and Cousins hits Smith
down the seam for 25 yards—and imagine a pretty impressive threesome at the foundation of their
2021 receiving corps.
So of course that’s the moment noted curmudgeon Zimmer thunders into the room to issue a wet fart.
On Rudolph’s departure, Zimmer said, “I don’t think it’s a bigger role for (Smith) whatsoever. I think
it’s a bigger role for Tyler Conklin.” On the one hand, this is mildly refreshing, because most other NFL
coaches would be so busy blowing smoke up their future star TE’s butthole, they’d need mouth-tomouth resuscitation. But on the other hand, it’s pretty transparently some Bill Parcels nonsense. Okay,
the Vikes ran the league’s third-most plays with two TEs on the field last year—behind only Cleveland
and Tennessee—so sure, I’m sure Gronklin will be play a lot. But Smith is faster, more experienced and
last year caught a few of the red-zone bunny TDs that occasionally gave Rudolph some fantasy shine.
This is Zimmer being a dink so his young stud doesn’t get a big head. We shouldn’t reach, but Smith is
primed to be the main “move” TE here. ’21 could be his launchpad.
14. EVAN ENGRAM NYG
Age: 27 • 6’3” • 240 lbs • Injury: 13
2020 Stats:
63 Rec • 654 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 7.2 AY@T (33rd%) • 50 Snaps/G • 29 Routes/G
16 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 • Top 24 Finishes: 9
Film Grades:
Speed: A • Routes: B • Power: C- • Hands: C- • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 7
’20 Final Rank: 18
’21 Ranks Range: 8-18
Can we finally just agree that for all his speed, Evan Engram isn’t a very good player? Last year, when
a lot of people made the case that Engram’s upside—and, let’s face it, situation—made him a top-five
option at the position, I begged you not to take him. I don’t care that he’s had to play with late-stage Eli
and early-stage Ten-Cent Piece. I don’t care that Giants coaches apparently speak about him in hushed
tones in production meetings, and therefore announcers love him like he’s a family member. I don’t care
what his Combine numbers were. I’m convinced he’ll never be a reliable on-field option.
It’s sure never boring. 2020 was the healthiest Engram has ever been…and I can’t say he didn’t hit
some incredible highs. A reverse rushing touchdown Week 5 against the Cowboys, a fake-field-goal TD
in the same game, a crazy Week 9 TD catch against Washington where he lays out for an overthrown
ball down the seam, a bomb against the Bengals Week 12 where he roasted slot corner Brandon Wilson
one-on-one…. It’s all there: Engram truly does have first-round ability. But you almost never get a
healthy Evan Engram game without him doing something insane. You can start with the incredible
eight recorded drops, and remember that official scorers are generally quite kind and Engram probably
actually dropped it more than that. Two offensive interference calls in Week 1 and Week 9 as the
Giants held slim leads. A slip in Week 2 that led to a Daniel Jones interception. Pop-ups off his hands
intercepted by the Eagles in Week 7 and Seahawks in Week 13, and another that should’ve been picked
in Week 9. And there’s drama even when it’s not his fault, like Week 8 against the Bucs when he clearly
stayed in bounds and scored a TD but the officials marked him out at the 2 and the Giants didn’t
challenge. This dude is maddening.
Still, maybe you’re saying why not take Engram, when he’s still only 27, is maybe the second-fastest
TE in the league, and if he ever figures it out has a lot higher ceiling than the guys ranked around him.
Yeah, maybe. I think he’s on track to leave the Giants next year via free agency and fade into platoon-
land, and frankly: Kyle Rudolph signed in Gotham this winter, so platoon-land might start early. My
feeling is bad players usually don’t float fantasy teams.
15. ERIC EBRON PIT
Pod nickname:
Murder Holes
Age: 28 • 6’4” • 253 lbs • Injury: 5
2020 Stats:
56 Rec • 558 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 7.4 AY@T (47th%) • 48 Snaps/G • 30 Routes/G
15 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 5 • Top 24 Finishes: 12
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Routes: B- • Power: B- • Hands: D • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 20
’20 Final Rank: 14
’21 Ranks Range: 10-24
e e cummings is good. Who doesn’t like Emilio Estevez? Elliot Easton of the Cars was my favorite
guitarist growing up. Ernie Els was a fine golfer, Erika Eleniak looked nice on Baywatch, and I’ll even
occasionally text someone e.e in place of the Robot Talia “eyeroll” drop. But apparently put NFL tight
ends with the initials E.E. in front of me and I only see doom.
I’m not trying to tell you Eric Ebron and Evan Engram are the same person…in fact, the Steelers and
Giants played Week 1 last year, and I paid special attention to whether a single dude was going back and
forth wearing 88 in blue and 85 in white. He wasn’t, but I haven’t ruled out cloning.
The cost of fawning over players who destroy the Underwear Olympics is minimal, which is probably
why so many people do it. Did you fall in love with a guy’s size and 40 time and jumping ability, only
to see him biff once he reached the NFL? Did it happen a bunch of times? Don’t worry! Just do it again
with the next crop of young players next year! I’m not really any kind of college evaluator, but all I
can tell you is as a Lion, as a Colt, as a Steeler: Murder Holes moves around great but just makes way
too many mistakes. He had another six official drops in 2020, bringing his seven-season total to an
incredible 36, by far most at the position in that time. His drop percentage of 6.7% is also highest of
any qualified TE since ’14. He got an incredible amount of hype last training camp. He’s still fast. He
made highlight packages hurdling a tackler Week 9 against the Cowboys. He occasionally hits a big-play
strike down the seam. No question, he can do things other tight ends can’t, and while the Steelers did
spend a second-round pick on Pat Freiermuth this spring, it’s naïve to think Ebron won’t mostly still be
the man.
But you know what Ebron’s best talent is? My man is a goldfish when it comes to drops. Can’t remember
’em! He drops ball after ball, week after week…and he’s never not stunned. He looks at his hands in
astonishment. He seriously can’t believe it!
16. ZACH ERTZ PHI
Age: 31 • 6’5” • 250 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
36 Rec • 335 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 7.1 AY@T (31st%) • 55 Snaps/G • 30 Routes/G
11 Games • 7 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 • Top 24 Finishes: 5
Film Grades:
Speed: B+ • Routes: A- • Power: C • Hands: C+ • Situation: ? • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 3
’20 Final Rank: 35
’21 Ranks Range: 5-24
I held out hope all summer. Every night I texted Jim McCormick and told him to don his green 86
jersey and pray to Dr. J and the ghost of Louisa May Alcott, asking that Zach Ertz please be traded
before August 1. Didn’t happen. At press time, he’s still an Eagle. It’s almost like Louisa May Alcott’s
ghost doesn’t care about the Almanac!
Ertz is probably gone? His contract voids after 2021. Philly can recoup about $4 million in cap space
by dealing him before Week 1. They’ve got Dallas Goedert, and the dude Ertz once upon a time made
sweet music with—Carson Wentz—has left Philly. I’m not sure I buy that Ertz was some insubordinate
force in the Eagles locker room like conspiracy-minded Philly fans might tell you, but there’s enough
smoke here. I still assume he’ll be playing elsewhere, even as we approach Septermber 1. But for the
moment, I have to rank these guys on their teams as constituted. If he winds up in a better spot with
less competition, Ertz can still find his way into my top dozen fantasy tight ends. But until then, all we
can talk about is what happened in ’20.
First and foremost, he got hurt: he missed five games with a high-ankle sprain. But even before the
injury, the Eagles offense was just broken. After Week 4 against the 49ers, I proclaimed on the podcast I
didn’t want any Philly weapons. The line stunk and was banged up, Wentz lost confidence or something…
no matter the reasons, it was a bad offense. Before his injury, Ertz had a short TD Week 1 and got a
couple other red-zone looks, had a head-clutching drop in the carnage Week 6 against the Ravens…I
don’t think I saw greatly diminished speed, but that’s sometimes tough to tell when nobody’s playing
well. (Ertz turns 31 in November and he’s certainly on the back nine.) Mostly I saw dysfunction, and
it would be real tough for me to say Ertz was the main culprit. I think he was caught up in the wash.
If our prayers are answered and we wind up liking a new landing spot, his rank does have upward
mobility.
17. TYLER HIGBEE LAR
Age: 28 • 6’6” • 255 lbs • Injury: 2
2020 Stats:
44 Rec • 521 Rec YD • 5 Rec TD • 8.0 AY@T (70th%) • 53 Snaps/G • 20 Routes/G
15 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 • Top 24 Finishes: 8
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Routes: C • Power: B • Hands: B+ • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 15
’20 Final Rank: 16
’21 Ranks Range: 10-24
My Higbee profile last year began with these words: “I think you should be real, real careful with the
Tyler Higbee hype.”
He’d posted a top-10 season overall among tight ends in 2019, and was fantasy’s #1 TE from Week 13
forward, which to people who like reading game logs meant he’d really “figured out” this whole NFL
thing. Nothing but good times were ahead!
What’s that line from “Reptilia”?
You ran me off the road
The wait is over
I’m now taking over
There’s at least some value to watching the games, and in Higbee’s case, it was clear to me that the
scuffling Rams offense found a wrinkle and exploited it for a few weeks, but it really wasn’t because
Higbee himself was a special player. It amounted to some iso misdirection stuff where Higbee would
zig while everyone else zagged and wind up mostly by himself. And unfortunately for the folks who bit
down hard for ’20, it mostly didn’t recur. Whereas in the final five games of ’19, Higbee saw more than
11 targets per game, last season it was right back to the messy platoon with Gerald Everett and three
or four targets per week. And that’s just Sean McVay being rational. Tyler Higbee is a good ancillary
weapon. He’s not a star.
Things have changed in ’21. Everett has gone to Seattle. Jared Goff has swapped out for Matthew
Stafford. Sure, the Rams have puffed up fourth-round rookie Jacob Harris, but no. Not right away.
This gig is probably Higbee’s in a way it never was when Everett was around, and there’s absolutely no
arguing that Stafford doesn’t make every Rams weapon more dangerous, because of course he does. It
won’t shock me if Higbee goes on a run of streaming delight at some point this season. I just suspect
he’s always going to fade back into the woodwork, because he’s a league-average talent. As the Strokes
also sang: “Is this it?”
COUSIN JOSH SAYS...
“
I’m higher on Higbee than Harris because I’m so damn in love with Matthew Stafford
going to L.A. You want to know what this is gonna be like, when Stafford and Higbee
get together? This is gonna be like a buddy cop movie where Higbee reaches down
from a bridge and yells for Stafford to grab his arm if he wants to live. I know this is
kind of a Backdraft reference, and I know a lot of readers are like, ‘What’s Backdraft?’
and I gotta tell you, 1991 has a special treat for you. Go back and rent that awesome
Ron Howard flick, and you’ll see exactly the brotherhood that’ll develop between
Higbee and Stafford now that Gerald Everett plays in Seattle.”
18. HUNTER HENRY NE
Age: 27 • 6’5” • 250 lbs • Injury: 22
2020 Stats:
60 Rec • 613 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 8.0 AY@T (68th%) • 62 Snaps/G • 32 Routes/G
14 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 4 • Top 24 Finishes: 11
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Routes: B • Power: C • Hands: A- • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 6
’20 Final Rank: 15
’21 Ranks Range: 6-24
I am Don Corleone in the morgue, standing over Sonny, saying, “Look how they massacred my boy.”
Back in 2016, I was as big a Hunter Henry booster as you could find. Loved the speed and handling,
loved the smarts and hands. He was going to be the Next Big Thing at the position. But watching him
play in ’20 didn’t feel the same. He had the Rookie of the Year at quarterback, and Henry was good…
but he wasn’t great. He looked regular. He looked like one more middle-of-the-field, medium-separation,
strong-after-the-catch tight end, but I never really saw him running away from anyone or smashing man
coverage with his routes the way the position’s elites can do. I can’t know for sure, but I’m assuming
this is the result of his incredibly bad injury history: torn ACL, lacerated kidney, knee fracture. Even
in ’20, when he played 14 games, Henry took two blows to the head Week 7 against the Jaguars, took
a huge shot he was slow to get up from in Week 8, limped off with an injured shoulder in Week 14…
the only two games he missed were Weeks 16 and 17 because of COVID, but I doubt he’d say he was
“purely healthy.”
The Chargers could’ve franchise tagged Henry and kept him another year, but decided they didn’t
want him, which is a warning sign. The Patriots gave him $25 million guaranteed at the same time
they signed Jonnu Smith, and the quarterback in New England will either be Cam Newton or Mac
Jones. I’m not saying it can’t work. Just because I don’t think Henry is one of the elite athletes at his
position anymore doesn’t mean he’s bad: he’s still a moose in the middle of the field, and a smart kid
who catches the ball well. Smith probably will eat into Henry’s optimal workload—especially in the red
zone—but he’s a far more accomplished blocker than Henry and my guess is we’re going to see him
in-line way more. I’m not ready to give up the Hunter Henry dream entirely, but we’re five years in,
and he already suffered a shoulder injury in training camp that will cost him multiple weeks. I
lowered him in the first Almanac update. We’re going to have to see flashes of the spry 22-year-old
from those sepia-toned days of ’16 before we’re ready to go to the mattresses with Henry again.
19. JARED COOK LAC
Age: 34 • 6’5” • 254 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
37 Rec • 504 Rec YD • 7 Rec TD • 11.3 AY@T (98th%) • 30 Snaps/G • 21 Routes/G
15 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 7 • Top 24 Finishes: 9
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Routes: C • Power: B • Hands: D • Situation: B+ • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 11
’20 Final Rank: 12
’21 Ranks Range: 12-N/A
Memory’s a funny thing. We all have axes around which our memories spin. For me, it’s often songs
and shows. I can’t remember a long-ago girlfriend’s face, but then I think back to that Matthew Sweet
concert where we broke up, and yup, I got it! I forget a whole swath of the Nineties, but then I think
back to a Cracker show at Liberty Lunch and there it is: David Lowery angrily passing his monitor into
the crowd! I wrote a whole big long novel (War On Sound…you might like it!) that’s kind of about this
feeling.
But in Jared Cook’s case, my memory’s idiosyncrasy doesn’t involve music. It involves a tweet.
I’ll never forget: after four years of sustained mediocrity with the Titans, Cook signed as a free
agent with the Rams and a colleague of mine was so excited. Spent months hyping Cook’s would-be
connection with Sam Bradford, called him a great draft pick. Week 1 Cook went crazy, Week 2 he
did nothing, and we debated Cook’s fate in Week 3. I was not a fan, my colleague was, and whatever:
we all make wrong calls. Cook stunk in Week 3, too, and would wind up stinking that whole year, as
he’s stunk for a lot of his long career. What sticks in my mind is the tweet. On a meaningless Week 3
fourth-down play, Cook dropped a ball that would’ve kept the game going, and the tweet went, “I can’t
catch it for him!”
(Yeah, but maybe you should be aware that he doesn’t catch it very…oh, never mind.)
Anyway, Cook is older now, he’s slowed down a lot, and he no longer has Drew Brees popping him
shorties in the end zone. (Cook had six TD receptions in each of the past two seasons thrown to him in
the end zone.) He moves to L.A. on a one-year deal. They let Hunter Henry walk, but also have the very
tall Donald Parham threatening to take work. It would be more fun for everyone if Parham’s ready to be
Justin Herbert’s main guy…but Parham has 10 NFL receptions in his life, so that’s probably asking a lot.
Cook is done as a full-time player, but if we’re taking bets about which Chargers TE gets into the highsingle-digits for TDs, it’s probably him. But a few years from now, I’m guessing not many of us will
remember it.
20. BLAKE JARWIN DAL
Age: 27 • 6’5” • 260 lbs • Injury: 15
2020 Stats:
1 Rec • 12 Rec YD • 0 Rec TD • 12.0 AY@T • 25 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
1 Game • 1 Target/G • Top 12 Finishes: 0 • Top 24 Finishes: 0
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Routes: C+ • Power: B • Hands: B • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 28
’20 Final Rank: N/a
’21 Ranks Range: 10-28
Jarwin has 78 career catches in four NFL seasons. He had 41 career catches in three seasons at
Oklahoma St. That means he’s caught a football when it counted 119 times in the eight years since high
school (he walked on at OSU and was a redshirt freshman). Oh, yeah, and he played 25 snaps last year
before tearing an ACL. And for 2021, people are hyping him up? “Watch out for Blake Jarwin! What a
sleeper!” Really? Oh, hell, even I’ve got him rated several spots higher on this year’s list than last year’s.
At this rate, all this dude has to do is completely avoid a football field in ’21 and ’22, and ahead of the
’23 season he’ll be top-five!
Jarwin seemed fine in a supporting role behind Jason Witten in ’19, but you can’t really tell. As a parttime player, he caught a few balls down the field illustrating some potentially decent speed, and had
a touchdown on a Monday night game against the Giants (with Joe Tessitore and Booger McFarland
calling the action, good times) where he got in the open field down the sidelines and nobody could
catch him. But can he handle the full-time gig? Didn’t we just watch Dalton Schultz be fine in his place
for a full season? Is Jarwin an exceptional player?
Well, but his boosters don’t care about that. Whether or not Blake Jarwin does anything well on a
football field is not their concern. They’re looking at the Cowboys offense and assuming it’s going to be
amazing and therefore Blake Jarwin will be good for your fantasy team. And that always works! They’ve
never once hyped up a WHO STOPS THIS OFFENSE??? and been wrong! (The 2020 San Francisco
49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions—all anointed by PFF as preseason top-10 offenses—would
like to have a word.) I’m not telling you we should pretend we have no preexisting notions about teams
before the season begins. But I am telling you not to assume person-shaped holes in offenses will work
out.
21. AUSTIN HOOPER CLE
Pod nickname:
Here Comes Hooper
Age: 27 • 6’4” • 254 lbs • Injury: 6
2020 Stats:
46 Rec • 435 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 6.9 AY@T (19th%) • 51 Snaps/G • 21 Routes/G
13 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 8
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Routes: B- • Power: C • Hands: B • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüüü
I’ll say this for Austin Hooper’s appendix: it knew when to get out.
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 12
’20 Final Rank: 22
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
In his first season as a Brown, Hooper lost two games to an appendectomy and another to a neck injury,
and that frankly wasn’t enough time off. After signing a vexing free-agent contract to be the highestpaid tight end in the NFL—his deal was quickly surpassed by Travis Kelce and George Kittle last August
and then again by Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry this winter—Hooper arrived in Cleveland as a great
hope for some. He was TE9 in average drafts, meaning some poor souls reached even higher than that.
But if you listen to the podcast, you knew not to bite.
Hooper’s (not particularly great!) numbers in Atlanta were the result of two things. First, he had a
difficult time beating man coverage, so he cleaned up on underneath stuff against zone. Second, he
accumulated a high percentage of his stats in games where the Falcons were getting blown out. (In
2019, Hooper led all TEs in targets, yards, TDs and first downs when his team was losing by 14+
points…hence his nickname…just when you think you’re safe because his team is cooked: Here Comes
Hooper.) Playing for a tighter ship in Cleveland, even with Odell Beckham missing more the half the
season, Hooper never looked any better than “just fine.”
Still didn’t get open against man. Had some bad luck a couple times in the end zone (once he couldn’t
quite get his feet down, another time he was wide open from the 1 but Baker Mayfield airmailed him).
Yes, if he gets some decent puck luck, Hooper could compile relatively good numbers. The Browns
played more two-TE snaps than any team in ’20, usually with Hooper staying on the field and the other
two guys—David Njoku and Harrison Bryant—rotating. So Hooper will still play a lot. Frankly, though,
it was obvious how much the team wanted to get Bryant going as a downfield weapon especially in the
season’s second half, and of all the TEs in the league who played at least 45 snaps a game, Hooper ran
the fourth-fewest routes per game (behind only Tyler Higbee, Jonnu Smith and Kyle Rudolph). Hooper
was a bad signing a year ago, and he’ll be a mediocre fantasy pick in ’21 unless the Browns dramatically
change the way they use him.
22. JONNU SMITH NE
Age: 26 • 6’3” • 248 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
41 Rec • 448 Rec YD • 8 Rec TD • 5.6 AY@T (1st%) • 48 Snaps/G • 19 Routes/G
15 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 • Top 24 Finishes: 10
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Routes: C • Power: B • Hands: B- • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 16
’20 Final Rank: 9
’21 Ranks Range: 10-24
I read somewhere this summer that the Patriots signing Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry meant that
they’re in “win-now” mode, and all I have to say is woohoo! Totally agree! If by “win” you mean six
games and by “now” you mean 2023.
This will devolve into “situation talk” a little more than I’m comfortable with when evaluating a player’s
fantasy prospects, but who looks at this blobby weird misshapen New England offense and feels good
about it, or thinks they’re built to win right away? Henry and Smith will be catching passes from a onearmed man or a fat child, and will rely on (checks notes) Nelson Agholor to be the guy who distracts
defenses on the outside. The halcyon days of BradyBall, this ain’t.
You probably know Jonnu’s act by now, right? We’ve been hearing what a high-SPARQ athlete he is for
four seasons, and if the Titans thought he was anything special during the time they had him, they had a
funny way of showing it. A whole bushel of tight-end screens off play-action, a whole lot of scary games
where he was stuck on one catch for three yards but pulled out a red-zone score late to salvage things.
It’s possible Tennessee was simply unwilling to build many plays around the obvious speed Smith brings,
and the Pats will unlock him as an all-field weapon. It’s also possible that he’s just not ever going to be a
dude you run a lot of plays for. He’s a better blocker than Henry and New England’s offense is now built
to pound the rock against base-nickel defenses. Hey, Smith scored eight touchdowns in ’20. I remember
Martellus Bennett scoring seven in an injured-Gronk year back in the day. Henry is already hurt in
training camp, so I guess crazier things have happened than Jonnu suddenly launching himself
into the fantasy stratosphere. Jamey Eisenberg called him a post-hype sleeper on my podcast, and
maybe that’s true. If we get a couple more weeks down the road and Henry looks shaky for Week
1, I’ll probably need to think about hiking Smith’s rank. (Then again: Smith himself suffered a
supposed “low-ankle” sprain late in training camp, though he’s already returned to practice.)
23. DONALD PARHAM LAC
Age: 24 • 6’8” • 237 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
10 Rec • 159 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 8.8 AY@T • 16 Snaps/G • 8 Routes/G
13 Games • 2 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 3
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Routes: C? • Power: B • Hands: ? • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 44
’21 Ranks Range: 13-N/A
Am I getting swept up in Parhamania? Very well, then. Consider me swept up!
Listen, I know it’s likely that Donald Parham—a kid who played at FCS Stetson, couldn’t make Detroit
or Washington’s roster in 2019, and spent time starring in the aborted ’20 XFL—will finish behind a
bunch of bigger-name tight ends I haven’t gotten to yet. But we’re late enough in the TE proceedings
that I’ll start accentuating upside. Parham played very limited snaps with the Chargers last year, really
only doing all the things a tight end is supposed to do in Weeks 16 and 17 with Hunter Henry on the
COVID list. The Chargers were never going to rely on this monstrously tall kid (you didn’t read wrong:
he’s six-foot-eight) as their sole TE for ’21. They signed Jared Cook, and Cook will almost surely be the
main guy.
But it’s fine to dream a little. Week 7 against the Jags, out of a two-TE formation, Justin Herbert sent
Parham on a zone-beating seam route up the right hash and laid it out perfectly for a long score. Week
4 against Tampa, the Chargers dropped all pretense and lined Parham up as a wideout getting iso
coverage on the left side and Herbert just threw it up and trusted that Parham’s insane size (and zero
separation) would be enough to beat Sean Murphy-Bunting, and it was. Week 17 against the Chiefs,
Parham ran fake jet motion and was probably the fourth receiving option, but Herbert found him in
the red zone and a prospective tackler bounced off him on the way to the end zone. Parham is a long,
loping kid who I don’t think is fast and I don’t think knows how to block, but is there a world where he
could be a TD-scoring second tight end? I mean, y’know, in ’21 probably not? But he’s an extremely fun
player, and maybe we’re at the beginning of something cool. Think of how great it’ll be if we all start
calling ourselves Parhamaniacs!
HARRIS’S
RESEARCH PROJECT
How rare are 6’8” pass catchers in the NFL?
Buddy! They’re rare! Harold Carmichael is the only wide receiver I could find at least 80 inches
tall, and he’s in the Hall of Fame! Otherwise, it’s all tight ends. A dude named Morris Stroud
played TE for the Chiefs in the 1970s, and he was 6’10” and (I’m not joking) was deployed near
the crossbar during field goal attempts to try and block them on the way down (a practice since
declared illegal). Since 2000, here are the 6’8” dudes other than Parham who’ve played regularseason games at TE in the league:
Player
Levine Toilolo
Leonard Pope
Zach Hilton
Greg Estandia
Joey Haynos
Richard Angulo
Gregg Guenther
Zach Gentry
Games
124
103
18
32
23
28
5
6
Rec Yards
1,042
982
396
294
184
155
13
4
TDs
8
11
1
0
3
1
0
0
Does this really mean anything? Oh heavens, no. Mostly it’s just fun and interesting, and I wanted
to look it up. (Sometimes that’s what Research Projects are all about.) Maybe it’s worth noting
that all these guys were mostly blockers: they all were listed over 255 pounds, and all but one
were over 260. Parham is a relative string bean at 237, really giving him more of a WR aspect.
We’ll see how that goes!
24. GERALD EVERETT SEA
Age: 27 • 6’3” • 240 lbs • Injury: 3
2020 Stats:
41 Rec • 417 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 6.1 AY@T (6th%) • 39 Snaps/G • 17 Routes/G
16 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 6
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Routes: B • Power: B- • Hands: C • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 30
’20 Final Rank: 26
’21 Ranks Range: 13-24
I will stipulate right here and now that Everett will be the best Seahawks tight end of the last five years.
Oh, what halcyon days we’ve had, being sold Will Dissly, Jacob Hollister and Nick Vannett as good
players! What fun to watch the rotted husk of Greg Olsen run around in 2020! Yes, Everett is the best
guy since mid-career Jimmy Graham. And I can’t make a seriously convincing case it’ll matter much.
Never declare that an offensive system—especially one getting a new coordinator, as the Seahawks are
with Shane Waldron—definitely won’t do this or definitely will do that. Heck, there’s a (probably goofy)
argument to be made that Waldron must love Everett, considering they’re both coming over from the
Rams. (Then again, if Waldron likes Everett so much, why didn’t the Rams ever give him more than
41 catches in four seasons?) Why hasn’t Russell Wilson made any of his spare-part TEs good fantasy
weapons in recent memory? It’s not about system. I have a pretty good guess why: they were bad!
Is Everett better? Yes, I think so. He’s as fast as a lot of wideouts, he scored a rushing TD from the 2
against the Giants last year, he’s not a change-of-direction guy with the ball in his hands, but he has
some slipperiness to him in the open field, he’s a decent blocker…and he’s simply never really put it
together and looked like anything more than an average modern-day tight end. As with so many of the
superfreak athletes who play this position, you see them in the uniform and watch them move around
and you can’t believe they don’t dominate. But a lot of them don’t. Everett hasn’t. I’m sure he’ll play a
bunch, and he’s a decent candidate to do that 50/500/5 stat line that gets you noticed but not loved. If
I’m wrong, and a big change in fortune is coming for Everett, we should know early.
25. ANTHONY FIRKSER TEN
Age: 26 • 6’2” • 246 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
39 Rec • 387 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 6.9 AY@T (24th%) • 21 Snaps/G • 14 Routes/G
16 Games • 3 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 5
Film Grades:
Speed: D • Routes: B • Power: B- • Hands: B • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 32
’21 Ranks Range: 13-30
Given my status as a yacht owner, maybe you’d expect I’d be cheering for the undrafted Harvard kid.
Camaraderie in Ivy League snootiness, all that. Well, come on, people. First of all, screw Harvard. And
second of all, I think you know me well enough to know that my unfettered boredom with the pre-Julio
Titans offense certainly trumps any feelings of class solidarity I have for Young Master Firkser. While
I’m supposed to be watching film on these guys, I’ll just be over here napping in my afternoon blazer
while my butler prepares my evening blazer for dinner.
Firkser’s actually is a fun story: FCS kid who bounced around a couple practice squads then latched
on as Tennessee’s Jonnu Smith understudy and scored two playoff touchdowns on the team’s run to
the 2019 AFC title game. He’s a poor athlete by NFL standards and quite short by today’s tight end
standards: the only other TEs who are 6’2” and had more than five catches last year are Irv Smith, Trey
Burton and Jordan Reed, and those guys are all markedly faster and bouncier than Firkser. (And I gotta
be honest: sometimes I have a hard time believing Firkser is even that tall.) On film, Firkser is like a
low-to-the-ground stock car: squat with a low center of gravity, tough to move off the spot, but nothing
like that high-octane Formula-One maneuverability you get from so many other dudes at the position.
Firkser will only ever be a possession-type player, but that’s okay, because with Ryan Tannehill around,
the Titans have mostly been a possession-type offense. A crazy athlete like Jonnu Smith never got any
downfield action, so let’s not expect it from Firkser. But Smith caught eight TDs last year, five thrown
to him from the red zone into the end zone, and that’s work Firkser can handle. Yeah, Julio and A.J.
Brown would handle it much better, plus Derrick Henry’s around. But if you’ve got a hankering to chase
bunny over-the-middle scores, Firkser looks like an unterrible candidate. Now pass me that snifter of
brandy. Someone’s playing “Fair Harvard” and I have to get liquored up and boo.
26. COLE KMET CHI
Age: 22 • 6’6” • 262 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
28 Rec • 243 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 6.3 AY@T (8th%) • 37 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
16 Games • 3 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 4
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Routes: C • Power: A- • Hands: B • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 43
’21 Ranks Range: 15-30
Oh, wait, I think I’ve got something for this guy. Ah, geez…something like…“K’mon let’s talk about
Kmet?” Or: “King Kmetameha?” No? Is that anything?
They can’t all be gems, people. Cole Kmet sure wasn’t as a rookie. He played light years behind Horse
Donovan, a.k.a. “The Man Who Used To Be Jimmy Graham,” and it’s just difficult to know what he is
as a pro receiver. Kmet was on the field a lot in 2020, but the Bears deployed his massive frame as a
blocker—especially in the run game—far more than they had him running routes. And even when they
threw him passes, the training wheels were clearly on: 14 of his 28 catches traveled fewer than three
yards in the air and 10 of them were thrown behind the line. The idea for the kid’s rookie year was to
get his feet wet, flip him little shovel passes, toss him misdirection screens, just get him used to what it’s
like when the ball’s in his hands.
And Kmet probably isn’t a burner but he’s not painfully slow, and he’s a handful to tackle. I saw a bunch
of defensive players not look very happy having to take Kmet on in the open field. I know Notre Dame
fans were like, “He’s Gronk!” but…he’s not Gronk, and he’s not early-career Jimmy Graham. But if he’s
Vance McDonald or Martellus Bennett, well, maybe someday there’s some interesting value there. One
season doesn’t close the door on Kmet. Of course it doesn’t! In fact, let’s see if the Bears cut Graham
before the season starts to save themselves $7 million. The veteran looks absolutely cooked and if he
already imparted all his tips and tricks to Kmet last season—like where to park your Kmaro and how to
pose for the Kmera—maybe Kmet winds up with a full-time starting gig for a Bears team starting over
at quarterback.
27. O.J. HOWARD TB
Pod nickname:
Canned Mushrooms
Age: 27 • 6’6” • 251 lbs • Injury: 16
2020 Stats:
11 Rec • 146 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 11.6 AY@T • 31 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
4 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 3
Film Grades:
Speed: A? • Routes: C+? • Power: B+ • Hands: C • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 21
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 16-N/A
I once had great hopes for O.J. Howard. A former first-rounder with absurd wheels and size and
quickness…he and Mike Evans looked like twins out there. Two years ago Howard was the #5 tight
end on my board. And it turned out...he just wasn’t very good at playing football. Drops, disappearing
acts and overall basic cluelessness—bookending the occasional exclamation-mark play that desperately
tempted us—have characterized his NFL career. He is the Jameis Winston of tight ends. Cousin Josh now
refers to him as “worse than canned mushrooms,” which is low praise, indeed.
And then after more of the same playing behind Rob Gronkowski for a month in 2020, Howard tore
his right Achilles’. It’s dangerous to generalize about injuries, but the Big-A is rough. Sure, Demaryius
Thomas tore his early in his career and did great things thereafter, but Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Michael
Crabtree, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon LaFell, Ben Watson, Fred Davis…most of these guys were older
than Howard when they ripped up their legs, but they did have their careers diminished or ended by the
injury.
Remember: Gronk did not exactly light up the night sky with his feet last year. He has two fully
functioning Achilles’ and Howard still might’ve been faster a week post-op. I can’t tell you what Tampa’s
offense might’ve morphed into had Howard stayed healthy last year; he absolutely does offer mobility
and dynamism Gronk and Cameron Brate don’t. If his recovery takes, and if he can focus on just a few
things he does well and stop making so many mistakes, I think it’s correct to say there could be a lot
of work for Howard: Gronk ran just 22 routes a game last year and Brate ran 10, even with Howard
mostly out. Howard’s in his walk season (after the Bucs somewhat controversially exercised his fifthyear option last spring). Crazier stories have been told. But the Bucs told beat reporters Howard
“isn’t quite there yet” the second week of August, which tells me you just don’t need to think
about drafting him. I agree with Josh on this rule of thumb: don’t buy the canned mushrooms.
28. DAWSON KNOX BUF
Age: 25 • 6’4” • 254 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
24 Rec • 283 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 7.9 AY@T (49th%) • 38 Snaps/G • 20 Routes/G
12 Games • 4 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 5
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Routes: B • Power: C • Hands: C • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 26
’20 Final Rank: 33
’21 Ranks Range: 15-34
Is it a bad sign that Knox shows up in my 2020 film notes three times total? Here they are, in their
totality:
Week 2 @MIA: “Josh Allen throwing on run in first quarter, bad throw looking for Knox.”
Week 12 vs. LAC: “Diggs drew long P.I. Moss stopped on goal line. Knox gets toe-tapping TD.”
Week 14 vs. PIT: “Allen is great, but is anyone other than Diggs—like Knox—at all trustable?”
In the second year of his career, my man did not make much of an impression. As the Bills suddenly
became committed to aggressive pass play selection, Knox was primarily a safety valve, at least until
December, when this summer’s film review reminded me that Josh Allen did start going downfield to
Knox in a more organized fashion. All nine of Knox’s targets that traveled 15+ yards in the air happened
from Week 14 forward, and the kid showed decent ball skills. If we wake up at the end of ’21 and learn
Knox has become a latter-day Chris Cooley type, it won’t be a shock. He’s not a slug, he’s a big guy...he’s
sort of the platonic ideal of the average tight end in the league right now. He’s going to present value to
a fantasy owner in exact proportion to how his NFL offense uses him.
In other words: probably not many heroics. If Knox winds up ever having a high-touchdown season, it’ll
be because the more exciting receiving options on his team got hurt or weren’t producing. If he has a
high-yardage season, it’ll mean the Bills have a dominant offense and everyone is producing. He’s fine. I
wouldn’t draft him, but he’s fine.
29. ADAM TRAUTMAN NO
Age: 24 • 6’5” • 255 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
15 Rec • 171 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 4.2 AY@T • 26 Snaps/G • 9 Routes/G
15 Games • 1 Target/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 1
Film Grades:
Speed: B-? • Routes: NO IDEA • Power: B • Hands: ??? • Situation: B • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 15-40
A snapshot of what it’s like to be me in early-June. Wake up. Realize I’m in Massachusetts and not
aboard the yacht and there’s no possum clamoring for attention. Take a leisurely stroll to the kitchen.
Make some vegetarian breakfast that would probably make you hurl. Pick up my phone and check
Twitter. And get 73 Adam Trautman dynasty questions.
There has apparently been quite a squall over Mr. Trautman! Plenty of pundits proclaiming him a
wonderful long-term bet in New Orleans. My question is: how do they know? The kid got 16 targets
in 15 games as a rookie. Is someone out there declaring Collin Johnson (18 catches in 14 games) a
future stud? (Don’t answer that question. I know that somewhere there is.) I’m not trying to tell you
Trautman’s enthusiasts are wrong. I just want you to realize they’re stabbing blindly. They don’t have
any idea if this young tight end can play in the NFL, because he hasn’t played in the NFL. They are in
love with the uniform: the idea that an Adam-Trautman-shaped hole could take the field for the Saints.
The depth chart matters. The fact that Jared Cook and Josh Hill are gone surely helps. But the Saints
signed Nick Vannett in March, and lord knows I’m not here trying to tell you Nick Vannett is good, but
I will tell you that the exact same people who are recording podcasts about what a great dynasty bet
Trautman is were saying the same thing about Vannett four short years ago. There are crutch arguments
to be made and ignored about how Drew Brees retiring and less competent quarterbacks playing means
good things for possession targets. Plus Michael Thomas maybe missing regular-season games because
of ankle surgery could matter. But the fact is: nothing’s changed about Trautman’s prospects. He still
played at a too-low collegiate level to really know if he was good or if his opposition were simply your
future dry cleaners. He still didn’t wow folks at the Senior Bowl. He still has questionable route running
and he still might be able to plow over people with a moose-like frame. He’s a prospect with warts. Still.
And like all such guys: we’ll see. By way of update: Trautman was carted off the field with a leg
injury during the Saints’ second preseason game, but beat reporters were told it’s not serious.
(Meanwhile Vannett hurt a knee and will miss as much as a month.) I’m still not drafting
Trautman. He’d be a waiver-wire guy in all but the deepest leagues.
30. DAN ARNOLD CAR
Age: 26 • 6’6” • 220 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
31 Rec • 438 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 12.5 AY@T (100th%) • 28 Snaps/G • 17 Routes/G
16 Games • 3 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 8
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Routes: B+ • Power: D • Hands: B+ • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 23
’21 Ranks Range: 18-N/A
Pop quiz, hotshot: name the tight end with the highest average yards at the target in the NFL in 2020.
Well, you’re reading the Dan Arnold profile, so….
Arnold couldn’t crack the rotation in New Orleans and barely played for the Cardinals in ’19, and he
honestly didn’t play that much on offense in Arizona last year, either (he was still a regular on special
teams), but on film he really did actually make plays down the field. He’s not crazy fast, but also not
slow…and he had a couple deeper shoestring catches and at least one overthrown ball in the end zone
he somehow went up and got. We like bendiness in our TEs, and Arnold has it. I will say in my review
of this film, he often didn’t seem like the prime target: often it’s Kyler Murray holding and holding and
eventually coming off initial reads and finding Arnold breaking into the clear. But we also like TEs who
can break into the clear!
Moving to the Panthers represents an obvious downgrade in quarterback, as Sam Darnold has only a few
chances left before he’s consigned to the ash heap of history. Also Ian Thomas—one of those massively
hyped athletes who’s never done anything—is still hanging around. And the Panthers threw 41 passes to
their TEs last year, second-fewest in the league (only New England did fewer, and I’d say they addressed
that area in free agency), which doesn’t mean things can’t change, it doesn’t mean Arnold can’t be an
important weapon, but it’s been a real long time since Greg Olsen in, whatever, ’16. Arnold doesn’t look
like a total run-of-the-mill stiff…he’s got some polish as a big slot receiver…but he’s also a liability as a
blocker and it’s hard to imagine Carolina running a lot of their offense through him right away.
31. JACK DOYLE IND
Age: 31 • 6’6” • 262 lbs • Injury: 12
2020 Stats:
23 Rec • 251 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 7.2 AY@T (35th%) • 37 Snaps/G • 15 Routes/G
14 Games • 2 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 6
Film Grades:
Speed: D • Routes: B+ • Power: A- • Hands: A • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 18
’20 Final Rank: 36
’21 Ranks Range: 20-40
Murder Holes Eric Ebron finally leaves Indy, Jack Doyle only has to beat out Mo. Alie. Cox. to at least
become vaguely relevant via a reliable workload, and the big man couldn’t even do that? It’s not like we
ever thought he was a special player. He’s a giant strong dude and good blocker whose pass-receiving
portfolio has always consisted of the most basic stuff. But he had an 80-catch season a few years back!
2020 should’ve been much better than ’19, and it wasn’t. And therefore here are the Top Seven Doyles,
Ranked:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Popeye
Arthur Conan
Brunson
Bramhall
Roddy
Getting hit by a Guinness
Jack
Unless Zach Ertz comes running through that door to play with his old buddy Carson Wentz, the Colts
are trundling out the same goofuses at tight end they played last year. I’m amenable to the argument
that a change in quarterback could change the way Indy’s various pass-game pieces get deployed. That
really does happen, and Wentz (when he had two healthy feet) made Ertz a big star. Ebron had
a huge season in ’18 with Frank Reich at the controls. It ain’t impossible. But the preponderance of
evidence tells us that a (by NFL standards) mediocre athlete who couldn’t separate from positional
competitors last year and has never separated from positional competitors in his career probably won’t
separate from his positional competitors in ’21. If he winds up surprising us, well, he’ll be right there in
the free-agent pool ready for a greedy add/drop. Meantime, I just heard some dude named “Matt Doyle”
just became the new lead singer for UB40, so please excuse me while I investigate where he fits on my
list...I’ll be doing research at some upper-middle-class kid’s bar mitzvah listening to the band play “Red
Red Wine” six straight times.
32. TYLER CONKLIN MIN
Age: 26 • 6’3” • 254 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
19 Rec • 194 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 4.1 AY@T • 27 Snaps/G • 13 Routes/G
16 Games • 2 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 3
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Routes: B? • Power: C • Hands: ? • Situation: C • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: N/A
’21 Ranks Range: 20-N/A
MC Hammer famously pronounced that he’d be a bigger artist than Michael Jackson. As public
proclamations go…well, I’m almost positive that’s more embarrassing than Mike Zimmer telling
reporters that Tyler Conklin is the guy who benefits most from Kyle Rudolph’s departure from
Minnesota. I mean, Irv Smith is standing right over there, Zim!
For two-and-a-half years, Conklin was the Vikings’ third tight end, but mostly a special teamer. Then
Rudolph got hurt last December, and Conklin got elevated to the top two. On this team, that means
you play about two-thirds of the offensive snaps and run 25+ routes per game. That level of workload
doesn’t guarantee you anything—not least because there’s another dude who plays your position also
on the field…in 2020, the Vikings ran the third-most two-TE snaps in the NFL—but apparently it got
Zimmer juiced enough to go hardass in a spring press conference and tell everyone to settle down about
this Smith kid.
As a rule, I do not believe things coaches say. It’s a practice that allows me some measure of sanity
when a visor-wearing hillbilly pronounces Patrick Ramsey the league’s next superstar quarterback.
But I’ll admit: we should pay more attention to the negative than the positive. And make no mistake,
when Zimmer talked up Conklin, he was actually talking down Smith (even though he tried to save it
with some aw-shucks thing about how psyched he was to have two good TEs). In his final four games,
Conklin showed a little bit of open-field oomph; sure, we’re talking about 15 catches…we can’t draw
real conclusions, but it wasn’t bad. If the public proclaiming continues, and momentum shifts toward
Conklin during training camp, I may be prepared to moonwalk the Minnesota TEs a little closer in my
ranks.
33. JIMMY GRAHAM CHI
Pod nickname:
Horse Donovan
Age: 35 • 6’7” • 265 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
50 Rec • 456 Rec YD • 8 Rec TD • 6.9 AY@T (21st%) • 39 Snaps/G • 24 Routes/G
16 Games • 5 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 6 • Top 24 Finishes: 8
Film Grades:
Speed: C- • Routes: B • Power: B+ • Hands: B+ • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 29
’20 Final Rank: 10
’21 Ranks Range: 14-N/A
It’s tough to say “it’s over” to a guy who just finished in the top 10 at his position. But Packers and
Bears fans both know what it’s like to watch Graham these days. He’s painfully slow and doesn’t really
jump anymore. He still has incredible hand-eye coordination and makes highlight-reel one-handed grabs
in the end zone, but rather than skying above the goalposts like we remember from Graham’s heyday,
now he’s sort of holding off a defender, boxing out and spinning around to make a play. You remember
the Darren Fells act from 2019, when Fells scored seven touchdowns on 34 catches? Even headed
toward his mid-30s, Graham is probably still a more dynamic player than Fells, but yeah, you’re getting
the idea. Not all guys who post surprisingly big TD totals are automatically due for regression. Sure
feels like Graham is.
Careful salary cap watchers seemed certain the Bears would axe Graham and save $7 million in cap and
real money this offseason, but the team released longtime left tackle Charles Leno in April instead. That
doesn’t mean Graham’s roster spot is safe. It’s possible Chicago just wants one more training camp to
look at second-year pro Cole Kmet before deciding to cut bait on Graham. It’s pretty obvious Kmet is
the one they’d like to see succeed sooner rather than later. If Graham sticks around, could he do TE10
again? He could, but I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s dangerous to automatically assume that the young guy
instantly supplants the old guy, but that’s okay: I doubt too many folks are reaching for Graham or Kmet
in ’21.
34. HAYDEN HURST ATL
Age: 28 • 6’4” • 245 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
56 Rec • 571 Rec YD • 6 Rec TD • 7,7 AY@T (56th%) • 46 Snaps/G • 32 Routes/G
16 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 7 • Top 24 Finishes: 12
Film Grades:
Speed: B- • Routes: B • Power: B • Hands: B+ • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 14
’20 Final Rank: 11
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
I’m no huge fan of Hurst, but this might be too low for him. Take a look at the Research Project in Kyle
Pitts’s profile and tell me it’s impossible the Falcons mightn’t ease him in. The record of rookie tight
ends—even the highest-drafted ones—is absolutely dreadful. I understand many people believe Pitts is a
different level of prospect, and several of my smart friends endorse that viewpoint to the point where
I’m willing to make Pitts a top-10 draftee at the position and make Hurst an afterthought. But history
tells us they probably will end the season a lot closer to each other!
It would help if I thought Hurst was a special player. He’s not bad. In 2020, he was a good middle-ofthe-field play-action weapon, though his stats are inflated by two long touchdowns (Week 2 against the
Cowboys, Week 6 against the Vikings) on which he was absolutely uncovered (and earned about 20%
of his standard-league points). He certainly had more to do in Atlanta last year than in his two years in
Baltimore as a former first-round pick, but to my eyes he still hasn’t shown many qualities that justified
that weird ’18 selection. (He sure does love to try and hurdle guys in the open field, I can tell you that.)
It feels like the Falcons must agree, because a season after they gave up a second-round pick for him—
which became J.K. Dobbins—they declined Hurst’s fifth-year option and drafted Pitts. So barring a Pitts
injury, I assume there’s really no path to Hurst himself being an every-week fantasy option. But he could
easily get in the way.
35. CHRIS HERNDON NYJ
Pod nickname:
$%@#ing Chris Hern-DON
Age: 25 • 6’4” • 253 lbs • Injury: 11
2020 Stats:
31 Rec • 287 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 6.8 AY@T (17th%) • 41 Snaps/G • 19 Routes/G
16 Games • 2 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 5
Film Grades:
Speed: C+ • Routes: B • Power: C • Hands: C • Situation: C+ • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 27
’20 Final Rank: 34
’21 Ranks Range: 20-N/a
The New York media hates everyone but Chris Herndon. I swear, this goofball’s fantasy stock has been
propped up for three years by beat reporters losing their minds over stuff they saw in practice or (more
likely) stuff googly-eyes Adam Gase whispered to them by the water cooler. He’s really never done
anything! He’s not one of the physical freaks who get pub because of their performances in spandex. But
he’s just always in the conversation. “What about Chris Herndon. Don’t forget Chris Herndon. Hearing
good things about Chris Herndon.” I think Mitch said it best when he said, “$%@#ing Chris Herndon.”
Maybe camp buzz will come again. If it does, the Jets’ beat reporters should be ashamed. Anyone whose
job was to sit through all those 2020 games knows that Herndon’s lack of performance can’t be pinned
solely on Gase or Sam Darnold. Check out Week 4 against the Broncos, Jets losing 30-28 with 2:20
left in the game, 1st-and-10 around midfield, Darnold gets pressure but evades it, sets his feet, finds
Herndon in the middle of the field for a simple completion and…DUCK HANDS. Or Week 1, fumbling
away a screen against the Bills. Or Week 8, catching a misdirection dump-off screen against the Chiefs,
running a few yards, taking a hit, fumbling. He’s a dog, kids. He’s a dog. He was never the guy, and I
don’t know why the people around that team thought he was. This spring, there’s a rumor Herndon
might get beat out by Easter Island statue Tyler Kroft, which seems...discouraging. And that’s the kind of
buzz that just feels more accurate, doesn’t it?
36. DAVID NJOKU CLE
Age: 25 • 6’4” • 246 lbs • Injury: 13
2020 Stats:
19 Rec • 213 Rec YD • 2 Rec TD • 7.5 AY@T • 31 Snaps/G • 12 Routes/G
13 Games • 2 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 2 • Top 24 Finishes: 3
Film Grades:
Speed: A- • Routes: C+ • Power: B • Hands: C • Situation: C- • Sensitivity: üüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 31
’20 Final Rank: 45
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
We’re over supposed future stud O.J. Howard? Then we’re also over his first-round draftmate from
2017, supposed future stud David Njoku. I bit down hard on both guys, and each has battled injuries,
but the lesson we should learn is: picking future studs is pretty difficult! Howard and Njoku can move
their giant bodies in impossible ways, but four years into their careers haven’t displayed IT. Game sense.
Clutchness. Moxie. Both burned me bad in ’19, neither did much in ’20, and both have obvious depthchart problems in ’21.
I believed in Njoku. But he’s an object lesson in not managing your team via Instagram. Njoku’s account
regularly features him in the weight room doing absurd things, like lifting a Buick or jumping on
top of a refrigerator. We can’t argue he wouldn’t make a great American Gladiator. He’d give Blade a
run for his money. (Was “Blade” the name of an American Gladiator? How about “Clobber”? “Cube?”
“Deathjaw”? I did not watch American Gladiators.) But he’s just never consistently imposed his will in
games. The Browns seemed over him when they signed Austin Hooper to a massive free-agent deal,
and then again when they spent a fourth-round pick last winter on Harrison Bryant. The team played
a bunch of two-TE formations in ’20 and threw plenty of passes to their three guys…but it was three
guys. After he returned from a Week 1 knee injury that cost him most of September, Njoku played on
about half of Cleveland’s snaps in a rotation with Bryant, then a bit more when Hooper was out with an
appendectomy. But there was no further effort to harness his wild athletic gifts in a way that would see
him, y’know, touch the football. He’ll surely be gone from the Browns in ’22, and we’ll reconvene about
him then. For now: no.
37. KYLE RUDOLPH NYG
Age: 32 • 6’6” • 265 lbs • Injury: 4
2020 Stats:
28 Rec • 334 Rec YD • 1 Rec TD • 7.3 AY@T (40th%) • 45 Snaps/G • 20 Routes/G
12 Games • 3 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 6
Film Grades:
Speed: D • Routes: B • Power: A • Hands: A- • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: 24
’20 Final Rank: 41
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
The good thing about Kyle Rudolph aging is that you can’t really tell the difference. He’s always been a
steady and unspectacular player: a good jumper but not a seam stretcher. So as he changes cities for the
first time in his NFL career, transitioning from primary end-zone weapon to likely blocking specialist,
we’re probably not going to notice a lot of changes from the outside. Of course Rudolph himself will be
singing the Black Keys:
Distant land
Don’t know who I am
Rudolph coming to the Giants is probably more a boon to Saquon Barkley than it is a threat to Evan
Engram. He really is that good a blocker, and he really can’t do a lot of the wideout-esque stuff
Engram is supposed to. The only reason to list him among the top 40 TEs is that Engram is (shall we
say) mercurial, and Rudolph is the exact opposite. He’ll always be where he’s supposed to be—albeit
somewhat slowly—and he’s got a history of red-zone and end-zone difference making. Don’t believe
me? Over the past six seasons, three men are tied for the most TDs on passes thrown into the end zone:
Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham and Rudolph. The best you’re ever going to get with Rudolph in his NFL
dotage is the 50/500/8 thing that week-by-week creates significant annoyance. But of course, to even
get anywhere near that mark, Engram would need to vacate the premises.
38. HARRISON BRYANT CLE
Age: 23 • 6’5” • 243 lbs • Injury: 1
2020 Stats:
24 Rec • 238 Rec YD • 3 Rec TD • 7.8 AY@T (61st%) • 38 Snaps/G • 16 Routes/G
15 Games • 2 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 1 • Top 24 Finishes: 4
Film Grades:
Speed: B • Routes: B • Power: C- • Hands: B- • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüüü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 40
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
Pretty deep league when you’re only the second-best “Harrison B.” in the NFL.
The Chiefs’ kicker might be the league’s best bootsman, whereas this second-year, fourth-round tight
end played as a rookie and did a few exciting things, but surely would have to break out of his thirdplace spot on Cleveland’s depth chart to become so well known. As I’ve chronicled above, Austin Hooper
and David Njoku are imperfect. There’s a sliver of room for Bryant if he’s ready.
There were times early in 2020 where my notes are filled with comments like, “Huh, for people who
took the plunge on Hooper, this Bryant kid is awfully involved.” That mostly remained the case: Bryant
was in games a lot, and on third downs often ran routes pretty far down the field. I compare his
coordination and ball skills to a more heralded prospect like Cole Kmet, and I think Bryant’s might be
better. His feet are pretty good setting up moves, though he’s a little stiff out of breaks. He had a few
drops, but he also had a couple catches where he picked the ball off the turf. I know in Week 7 the
Bengals sure had a difficult time getting him to the ground. There are some interesting raw materials
here, even if the upside is limited. He’s sure not Tony Gonzalez, but he’s also not Jack Doyle.
We’ll just watch all three guys. Among them, Bryant is closest to “just a wideout” because he comes off
the line well but also because his blocking is so-so. That can be good and bad. If you’re always used as a
receiver, that’s good. If you can’t get on the field because they don’t trust your blocking, that’s bad.
39. PAT FREIERMUTH PIT
Age: 23 • 6’5” • 260 lbs • Rookie
NFL COMPARISON:
heath miller
’21 Ranks Range: 30-N/A • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üüü
Freiermuth joins a team with a long tradition of HEEEEEEEEEEATH. Any time a tight end catches a
pass, some segment of the Pittsburgh fan base is simply going to yell out Heath Miller’s name. Miller was
a slow big guy who was an insane blocker, and took advantage of Ben Roethlisberger’s peak years and
his own status as a gamer to turn himself into a two-time Pro Bowler. He was never the best TE in the
league. But he was a major all-around part of some very good teams.
I know Penn St. fans don’t want to hear it, but Freiermuth doesn’t project as a star. He’s not fast and he
was an inconsistent route runner in college. But he was universally heralded as the best blocking TE in
the Class of 2021, and knowing what we know about Mike Tomlin’s hardassery, that’s a ticket to playing
early. No matter what I think of his hands or the space between his ears, Eric Ebron is the freak in that
meeting room and also the veteran, so the usable fantasy role is going to fall to him for however long
he’s healthy. Even if Ebron misses time–which has happened over his quasi-moronic seven-year career—
it’s unlikely Freiermuth would suddenly inherit some six-target-a-week role. We’ll watch the kid’s snap
count this season, keep track of how much he gets involved as a receiver, and consider whether he
makes enough progress to inherit the job when Ebron (presumably) leaves in free agency. It still may
not wind up all that exciting in ’22, but at least there’ll be a lot of HEEEEEEEEEEATH.
40. DALTON SCHULTZ DAL
Age: 25 • 6’5” • 244 lbs • Injury: 0
2020 Stats:
63 Rec • 615 Rec YD • 4 Rec TD • 6.5 AY@T (12th%) • 59 Snaps/G • 31 Routes/G
16 Games • 6 Targets/G • Top 12 Finishes: 3 • Top 24 Finishes: 10
Film Grades:
Speed: C • Routes: C+ • Power: B+ • Hands: B • Situation: D • Sensitivity: üü
Rank History:
’20 Preseason Rank: N/A
’20 Final Rank: 17
’21 Ranks Range: 24-N/A
I don’t know what to tell you. You’ve made it this deep in the tight end profiles and this far into the
document. If you’re looking at Schultz’s topline 63/615 numbers and going, “Hey! Real good player!”
please flip back to page 1 and read this whole thing again.
Schultz’s 2020 season happened because Blake Jarwin got hurt. He had a massive game with Dak
Prescott at the wheel in Week 2, but once Andy Dalton took over it was—as you’d expect—a check-down
fest. Because the Cowboys didn’t have anyone else they trusted, he just was on the field an absolute ton.
Schultz played the third-most TE snaps in the NFL last year and ran the fourth-most routes. This was
circumstance, and all credit to Schultz for taking advantage, if by “taking advantage” we mean literally
averaging four catches for 33 yards from Week 5 forward.
Can I definitively swear to you this moment that Jarwin coming off a torn ACL is a better player than
Schultz? I mean...no? I guess if we get to training camp and everyone says Schultz is running with the
ones and Jarwin is struggling to recapture what made him a team favorite going into ’20, I’ll reassess.
What’s likeliest is they both play a fair amount—Schultz more as a blocking specialist than a dangerous
aerial weapon—and the speedier Jarwin is the one who provides marginal fantasy value.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Will Dissly, SEA
C.J. Uzomah, CIN
Ian Thomas, CAR
Jordan Akins, HOU
Cameron Brate, TB
Tyler Eifert, JAC
Jacob Hollister, BUF
Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN
Drew Sample, CIN
Geoff Swaim, TEN
1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Last Year’s Finish: #2
Key Additions:
DE Melvin Ingram (Chargers); Joe Schobert ( Jaguars)
Key Subtractions:
LB Bud Dupree (Titans); CB Steven Nelson (Eagles); CB Mike Hilton (Bengals)
Pithy Blurb:
“The front seven returns six studs—only Dupree left—which means the questions circle around corner.
Cutting Nelson for cap reasons was tough; ’19 third-rounder Justin Layne gets the magnifying glass.”
2. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Last Year’s Finish: #7
Key Additions:
LB Joe Tryon (1st-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
none
Pithy Blurb:
“They’re getting the band back together. It’s an elite defensive line, with an elite middle linebacker in
Lavonte David, and a very good secondary made of young, highly drafted talent. They’re really good.”
3. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Last Year’s Finish: #5
Key Additions:
DE Justin Houston (Colts); LB Odafe Oweh (1st-round pick); S Brandon Stephens (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DE Yannick Ngakoue (Raiders); LB Matt Judon (Patriots); DE Jihad Ward ( Jaguars)
Pithy Blurb:
“They’re replacing two big-time pass rushers and their linebackers are so-so. But the front three is great
against the run and nobody has a pair of corners like Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. They’ll do.”
4. WASHINGTON
Last Year’s Finish: #4
Key Additions:
CB William Jackson (Bengals); LB Jamin Davis (1st-round pick); S Bobby McCain (Dolphins); CB
Benjamin St-Juste (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DE Ryan Kerrigan (Eagles); CB Ronald Darby (Broncos); LB Ryan Anderson (Giants); LB Thomas
Davis (retired); CB Fabian Moreau (Falcons)
Pithy Blurb:
“I was just dead wrong on them. The defensive line is the best in the NFL. Chase Young is a god. I even
like William Jackson as an addition to what turned out to be a good secondary. Believe in Ron Rivera!”
5. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Last Year’s Finish: #1
Key Additions:
LB Ernest Jones (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
S John Johnson (Browns); CB Troy Hill (Browns); DT Michael Brockers (Lions); LB Samson Ebukam
(49ers)
Pithy Blurb:
“Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, Darious Williams...they are high-end. I’m nervous letting
half the secondary go, but just because we don’t know if the kids can play doesn’t mean they can’t.”
6. BUFFALO BILLS
Last Year’s Finish: #9
Key Additions:
DT Star Lotulelei (COVID opt-out); DE Gregory Rousseau (1st-round pick); DE Carlos Basham (2ndround pick)
Key Subtractions:
CB Josh Norman (unsigned); DT Quinton Jefferson (Raiders); DE Trent Murphy (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“A so-so performance in ’20 from a group who should be better than that. Obviously the defensive front
was the main issue. They didn’t lose anything major. I still view them as a clear fantasy starter.”
7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Last Year’s Finish: #13
Key Additions:
DT Maurice Hurst (Raiders); LB Samson Ebukam (Rams); DT Zach Kerr (Panthers); CB Ambry
Thomas (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DB Richard Sherman (unsigned); CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Seahawks); DE Kerry Hyder (Seahawks);
DT Solomon Thomas (Raiders); LB Kiko Alonso (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“It’s all about health. Nick Bosa returns from a torn ACL, Dee Ford missed the year with a bad back,
and Jason Verrett was awesome in ’20 after somehow not getting hurt. High-end upside, high-end risk.”
8. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Last Year’s Finish: #12
Key Additions:
LB Matt Judon (Ravens); LB Dont’a Hightower (COVID opt-out); S Jalen Mills (Eagles); DT Davon
Godchaux (Dolphins); DE Henry Anderson ( Jets); LB Kyle Van Noy (Dolphins); DE Montravius Adams
(Packers); DT Christian Barmore (2nd-round pick); DE Ronnie Perkins (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
S Patrick Chung (retired); DT Adam Butler (Dolphins); CB Jason McCourty (Dolphins); S Terrence
Brooks (Texans); DT Beau Allen (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“Belichick is playing fantasy football on defense now, adding and subtracting half his bodies every year.
Those are some huge names coming in! They got run on in ’20; that shouldn’t happen in ’21.”
9. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Last Year’s Finish: #10
Key Additions:
LB De’Vondre Campbell (Cardinals); CB Eric Stokes (1st-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
LB Christian Kirksey (Texans); Montravius Adams (Patriots)
Pithy Blurb:
“This’ll basically be the same group we saw in ’20: a very good defensive line and a pretty good
secondary covering up for some so-so linebackers. It should work...overall the Pack is built to win.”
10. DENVER BRONCOS
Last Year’s Finish: #22
Key Additions:
CB Ronald Darby (Washington); CB Kyle Fuller (Bears); CB Patrick Surtain II (1st-round pick); DT
Shamar Stephen (Vikings); LB Baron Browning (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
CB A.J. Bouye (Panthers); DT Jurrell Casey (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“They signed brand-name corners for buckets of money. It’s dangerous when lots of new pieces come
together, but if Von Miller comes back from his bad ankle and gets the pass rush going, watch out!”
11. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Last Year’s Finish: #3
Key Additions:
DE Kwity Paye (1st-round pick); DT Antwaun Woods (Cowboys)
Key Subtractions:
DE Denico Autry (Titans); DE Justin Houston (Ravens); S Malik Hooker (Cowboys); LB Anthony
Walker (Browns)
Pithy Blurb:
“Xavier Rhodes bounced back from a down year, and it’s just really hard to run on Darius Leonard and
DeForest Buckner. It’s fair to worry about pass rush, but I think these guys are draftable.”
12. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last Year’s Finish: #8
Key Additions:
DT Adam Butler (Patriots); DT John Jenkins (Bears); LB Jaelan Phillips (1st-round pick); LB
Bernardrick McKinney (Texans); CB Cre’Von LeBlanc (Eagles); CB Justin Coleman (Lions); CB Jason
McCourty (Patriots); S Jevon Holland (2nd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
LB Shaq Lawson (Texans); DT Davon Godchaux (Patriots); S Bobby McCain (Washington); LB Kyle
Van Noy (Patriots); LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (Texans)
Pithy Blurb:
“Signing Byron Jones and Xavien Howard allowed Miami to play a ton of man and bring the house. The
problem is that their edge rushers and linebackers aren’t there yet. Let’s see if Phillips balls right away.”
13. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Last Year’s Finish: #17
Key Additions:
DT Malik Jackson (Eagles); DE Jadeveon Clowney (Titans); S John Johnson (Rams); CB Troy Hill
(Rams); CB Greg Newsome (1st-round pick); DE Takk McKinley (Falcons); LB Jeremiah OwusuKoramoah (2nd-round pick); LB Anthony Walker (Colts); DT Andrew Billings (Bengals)
Key Subtractions:
DT Sheldon Richardson (Vikings); DE Olivier Vernon (unsigned); S Karl Joseph (Raiders); DT Larry
Ogunjobi (Bengals); S Andrew Sendejeo (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“Second straight offseason they’ve thrown a ton of new pieces together, and it’s hard to know what we’ll
get. Clowney/Myles Garrett sounds amazing, and they got some good Rams guys. Blend fast, dudes!”
14. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Last Year’s Finish: #10
Key Additions:
DE J.J. Watt (Texans); CB Malcolm Butler (Titans); LB Zaven Collins (1st-round pick); CB Darqueze
Dennard (Falcons); S Shawn Williams (Bengals)
Key Subtractions:
CB Patrick Peterson (Vikings); LB Hasason Reddick (Panthers); LB De’Vondre Campbell (Packers); CB
Dre Kirkpatrick (unsigned); LB Devon Kennard (Lions)
Pithy Blurb:
“One Hall-of-Famer out, one Hall-of-Famer in. If Watt stays healthy, this D is very ownable. But they
play a ton of single-high, meaning the corners are under constant pressure, and they’re not great.”
15. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Last Year’s Finish: #21
Key Additions:
CB Asante Samuel Jr. (2nd-round pick); LB Kyler Fackrell (Giants)
Key Subtractions:
DE Melvin Ingram (Steelers); CB Desmond King (Texans); CB Casey Hayward (Raiders); LB Denzel
Perryman (Raiders); S Rayshawn Jenkins ( Jaguars)
Pithy Blurb:
“I was wrong about them in ’20, and while we all love Joey Bosa, and Kenneth Murray and Chris Harris
are terrific, they’re relying on Bosa staying healthy and several first-time starters up front.”
16. TENNESSEE TITANS
Last Year’s Finish: #26
Key Additions:
LB Bud Dupree (Steelers); CB Janoris Jenkins (Saints); DE Denico Autry (Colts); CB Caleb Farley (1stround pick); LB Monty Rice (3rd-round pick); S Elijah Molden (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
CB Adoree’ Jackson (Giants); DE Jadeveon Clowney (Browns); CB Malcolm Butler (Cardinals); S
Kenny Vaccaro (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“It’s big turnover at all three levels. They spent a ton of money up front, and they’re relying on kids to
play three of five spots in the secondary. It can work out, but you probably don’t need to draft them.”
17. CHICAGO BEARS
Last Year’s Finish: #17
Key Additions:
CB Desmond Trufant (Lions); DT Eddie Goldman (COVID opt-out); LB Christian Jones (Lions)
Key Subtractions:
CB Kyle Fuller (Broncos); DT John Jenkins (Dolphins); DT Roy Robertson-Harris ( Jaguars); DE Brent
Urban (Cowboys); CB Buster Skrine (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“Khalil Mack’s sack totals are down, but he’s still amazing. Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks: also great.
But they’ve downgraded the secondary from Fuller to Trufant. They don’t look like Monsters to me.”
18. NEW YORK GIANTS
Last Year’s Finish: #14
Key Additions:
CB Adoree’ Jackson (Titans); DT Danny Shelton (Lions); LB Ryan Anderson (Washington); LB Azeez
Ojulari (2nd-round pick); CB Aaron Robinson (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Vikings); LB Kyler Fackrell (Chargers)
Pithy Blurb:
“Last year in this space I said you could see the rebuild taking place, and you still can. Jackson teaming
with Bradberry is legit. Tough to replace Tomlinson in the middle but they’re getting better.”
19. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Last Year’s Finish: #27
Key Additions:
CB Patrick Peterson (Cardinals); DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Giants); DT Sheldon Richardson (Browns); DT
Michael Pierce (COVID opt-out); DE Everson Griffen (Lions); (CB Mackensie Alexander (Bengals);
CB Bashaud Breeland (Chiefs); S Xavier Woods (Cowboys); DE Stephen Weatherly (Panthers); DE
Patrick Jones (3rd-round pick); LB Chazz Surratt (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
CB Mike Hughes (Chiefs); S Anthony Harris (Eagles); LB Eric Wilson (Eagles); DT Shamar Stephen
(Broncos); DT Jaleel Johnson (Texans); CB Holton Hill (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“They had the NFL’s worst pass rush, thanks to opt-outs and Danielle Hunter’s injury. They had one of
the worst secondaries, thanks to being bad. They’ve thrown a ton of new bodies at these problems.”
20. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Last Year’s Finish: #15
Key Additions:
CB Mike Hughes (Vikings); DT Jarran Reed (Seahawks); LB Nick Bolton (2nd-round pick);
Key Subtractions:
CB Bashaud Breeland (Vikings); LB Damien Wilson ( Jaguars)
Pithy Blurb:
“The defense is under added pressure because the offense is so good, but it’s also pretty mediocre. Chris
Jones is an elite player, but many of their other veterans are meh. They need a few kids to shine.”
21. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Last Year’s Finish: #6
Key Additions:
DE Payton Turner (1st-round pick); LB Pete Werner (2nd-round pick); CB Brian Poole ( Jets); CB
Paulson Adebo (3rd-round pick); S Jeff Heath (Raiders)
Key Subtractions:
DE Trey Hendrickson (Bengals); CB Janoris Jenkins (Titans); CB Patrick Robinson (retired); DT
Sheldon Rankins ( Jets); DT Malcom Brown ( Jaguars); LB Alex Anzalone (Lions)
Pithy Blurb:
“They’ve still got players like Cam Jordan, Demario Davis and Marshon Lattimore, but they let some
big-money guys walk and probably have to start some rookies. Possibly a post-Brees reset for this unit.”
22. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Last Year’s Finish: #16
Key Additions:
DE Ryan Kerrigan (Washington); S Anthony Harris (Vikings); CB Steven Nelson (Steelers); LB Eric
Wilson (Vikings); DT Milton Williams (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
S Jalen Mills (Patriots); DT Malik Jackson (Browns); DE Vinny Curry ( Jets); CB Nickell RobeyColeman (Lions); CB Rasul Douglas (unsigned); CB Cre’Von LeBlanc (Dolphins)
Pithy Blurb:
“Year after year, the defensive front gets pressure without blitzing and the secondary poops the bed.
Darius Slay wasn’t great last year and they’re throwing new bodies in the secondary and at linebacker.”
23. DALLAS COWBOYS
Last Year’s Finish: #23
Key Additions:
LB Micah Parsons (1st-round pick); CB Kelvin Joseph (2nd-round pick); S Malik Hooker (Colts); S
Keanu Neal (Falcons); DT Carlos Watkins (Texans); DE Brent Urban (Bears); DT Osa Odighizuwa
(3rd-round pick); DE Chauncey Golston (3rd-round pick); CB Nahshon Wright (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
S Xavier Woods (Vikings); CB Chidobe Awuzie (Bengals); DT Antwaun Woods (Colts); DT Dontari
Poe (unsigned); LB Sean Lee (retired)
Pithy Blurb:
“Last year I called them the Island Of Misfit Toys, and that was right. They’re still flailing around on the
back end, and Demarcus Lawrence can only do so much. Rookies will need to play and play well.”
24. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Last Year’s Finish: #20
Key Additions:
DE Kerry Hyder (49ers); CB Ahkello Witherspoon (49ers); DT Al Woods ( Jaguars)
Key Subtractions:
LB K.J. Wright (unsigned); CB Shaquill Griffin ( Jaguars); CB Quinton Dunbar (unsigned); DT Jarran
Reed (Chiefs)
Pithy Blurb:
“I could make a case Bobby Wagner is the best defensive player in the NFL, but they struck out on the
edge-rusher market and their pass coverage was just dreadful last year. Teams will throw on them.”
25. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Last Year’s Finish: #30
Key Additions:
DE Yannick Ngakoue (Ravens); CB Casey Hayward (Chargers); DT Solomon Thomas (49ers); S Karl
Joseph (Browns); DT Quinton Jefferson (Bills); DT Gerald McCoy (Cowboys); LB Denzel Perryman
(Chargers); S Trevon Moehrig (2nd-round pick); Divine Deablo (3rd-round pick); Malcolm Koonce
(3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DE Maliek Collins (Texans); S Lamarcus Joyner ( Jets); DT Maurice Hurst (49ers); S Erik Harris
(Falcons); S Jeff Heath (Saints)
Pithy Blurb:
“The Raiders are going young in the secondary, and they haven’t been able to rush the passer for years.
Ngakoue is an attempt to fix that. Somehow when Belichick gets a million new players, it looks smarter.”
26. HOUSTON TEXANS
Last Year’s Finish: #30
Key Additions:
LB Shaq Lawson (Dolphins); CB Desmond King (Chargers); DE Maliek Collins (Raiders); LB Christian
Kirksey (Packers); DT Jaleel Johnson (Vikings); S Terrence Brooks (Patriots); LB Jordan Jenkins ( Jets);
LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (Dolphins)
Key Subtractions:
DE J.J. Watt (Cardinals); LB Bernardrick McKinney (Dolphins); DT Carlos Watkins (Cowboys); CB
Gareon Conley (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“This is fine. The linebackers are good, but the d-line was awful even with Watt still playing great. Lovie
Smith is the new coordinator, he’s a good coach. Some of the acquisitions can play. But no.”
27. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Last Year’s Finish: #19
Key Additions:
CB A.J. Bouye (Broncos); LB Hasason Reddick (Cardinals); CB Jaycee Horn (1st-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DE Stephen Weatherly (Vikings); S Tre Boston (unsigned); CB Corn Elder (Lions); DT Zach Kerr
(49ers); DT Kawann Short (unsigned); LB Tahir Whitehead (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“Some young guys were okay right away, giving them hope for the future, but Shaq Thompson played
pretty bad without Kuechly. They’re still too young to rely on, but maybe five kids here give hope.”
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Last Year’s Finish: #28
Key Additions:
DE Trey Hendrickson (Saints); CB Mike Hilton (Steelers); CB Chidobe Awuzie (Cowboys); DT Larry
Ogunjobi (Browns); S Ricardo Allen (Falcons); DE Joseph Ossai (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DE Carl Lawson ( Jets); DT Geno Atkins (unsigned); CB William Jackson (Washington); CB Mackensie
Alexander (Vikings); DT Andrew Billings (Browns); S Shawn Williams (Cardinals)
Pithy Blurb:
“Nothing worked. The holdovers are all gone. They’re starting over. To be fair, D.J. Reader and Trae
Waynes didn’t play much, so maybe those big ’20 signings will work out. Seems like a long way to go.”
29. ATLANTA FALCONS
Last Year’s Finish: #24
Key Additions:
CB Fabian Moreau (Washington); S Duron Harmon (Lions); S Richie Grant (2nd-round pick); S Erik
Harris (Raiders)
Key Subtractions:
S Keanu Neal (Cowboys); DE Takk McKinley (Browns); CB Darqueze Dennard (Cardinals); S Ricardo
Allen (Bengals); DE Allen Bailey (unsigned)
Pithy Blurb:
“It’s the least-experienced safety group in the league and ’20 first-rounder A.J. Terrell must show more.
Grady Jarrett is great, but the pass rush is mediocre and they give up a ton of yards. Rough sledding.”
30. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Last Year’s Finish: #29
Key Additions:
CB Shaquill Griffin (Seahawks); DT Malcom Brown (Saints); S Rayshawn Jenkins (Chargers); DT
Roy Robertson-Harris (Bears); DE Jihad Ward (Ravens); LB Damien Wilson (Chiefs); Tyson Campbell
(2nd-round pick); S Andre Cisco (3rd-round pick)
Key Subtractions:
DT Al Woods (Seahawks); CB D.J. Hayden (unsigned); LB Joe Schobert (Steelers)
Pithy Blurb:
“Griffin seeks to replace what they lost when Jalen Ramsey left. He’s good, but not that good. Otherwise
it’s a whole bunch of guys with potential but not much performance. You can’t draft them.”
31. DETROIT LIONS
Last Year’s Finish: #32
Key Additions:
DT Michael Brockers (Rams); CB Quinton Dunbar (Seahawks); CB Nickell Robey-Coleman (Eagles);
CB Corn Elder (Panthers); LB Devon Kennard (Cardinals); LB Alex Anzalone (Saints); DT Levi
Onwuzurike (2nd-round pick); DT Alim McNeill (3rd-round pick); CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (3rd-round
pick)
Key Subtractions:
CB Desmond Trufant (Bears); LB Jarrad Davis ( Jets); CB Justin Coleman (Dolphins); DT Danny
Shelton (Giants); S Duron Harmon (Falcons); LB Christian Jones (Bears); DE Everson Griffen
(Vikings)
Pithy Blurb:
“It’s Jamie Collins, Trey Flowers and pray for rain. They’re rebuilding everywhere and cleaning out the
stench of Matt Patricia, but if you trust Dan Campbell to meathead his way out of this one, good luck.”
32. NEW YORK JETS
Key Additions:
Last Year’s Finish: #25
DE Carl Lawson (Bengals—already out for 2021 season); LB C.J. Mosley (COVID opt-out); LB Jarrad
Davis (Lions); DT Shelton Rankins (Saints); DE Vinny Curry (Eagles—already out for 2021 season);
S Lamarcus Joyner (Raiders)
Key Subtractions:
CB Bradley McDougald (unsigned); CB Brian Poole (Saints); DE Henry Anderson (Patriots); LB Jordan
Jenkins (Texans)
Pithy Blurb:
“They threw all this money at the d-line, and both Lawson and Curry are done already. Mosley
hasn’t played in a while, and their corners are unbelievable, as in: I can’t believe that’s all they have.”
STANDARD TOP 200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Dalvin Cook
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
Nick Chubb
Derrick Henry
Saquon Barkley
Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill
Aaron Jones
Ezekiel Elliott
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
DK Metcalf
Travis Kelce
Joe Mixon
Jonathan Taylor
Josh Jacobs
Antonio Gibson
J.K. Dobbins
Najee Harris
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Patrick Mahomes
Calvin Ridley
Mike Evans
A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson
Keenan Allen
Chris Godwin
Allen Robinson
Austin Ekeler
Chris Carson
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
David Montgomery
James Robinson
Miles Sanders
Terry McLaurin
D'Andre Swift
Aaron Rodgers
Josh Allen
RB1
RB2
RB3
RB4
RB5
RB6
WR1
WR2
RB7
RB8
WR3
WR4
WR5
TE1
RB9
RB10
RB11
RB12
RB13
RB14
TE2
TE3
QB1
WR6
WR7
WR8
WR9
WR10
WR11
WR12
RB15
RB16
RB17
RB18
RB19
RB20
WR13
RB21
QB2
QB3
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Darrell Henderson
Kareem Hunt
D.J. Moore
Julio Jones
Tyler Lockett
Amari Cooper
Robert Woods
Diontae Johnson
CeeDee Lamb
Adam Thielen
Cooper Kupp
Brandon Aiyuk
Mark Andrews
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Odell Beckham
Robby Anderson
Ja'Marr Chase
Chase Claypool
Tee Higgins
Jerry Jeudy
Kenny Golladay
Michael Thomas
Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott
Melvin Gordon
Javonte Williams
Mike Davis
Damien Harris
Myles Gaskin
Trey Sermon
Raheem Mostert
Ronald Jones
T.J. Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Chase Edmonds
Brandin Cooks
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
RB22
RB23
WR14
WR15
WR16
WR17
WR18
WR19
WR20
WR21
WR22
WR23
TE4
QB4
QB5
QB6
WR24
WR25
WR26
WR27
WR28
WR29
WR30
WR31
QB7
QB8
RB24
RB25
RB26
RB27
RB28
RB29
RB30
RB31
TE5
TE6
RB32
WR32
WR33
WR34
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
A.J. Dillon
Kenyan Drake
Michael Carter
Tom Brady
Jamaal Williams
Dallas Goedert
Noah Fant
Robert Tonyan
Phillip Lindsay
James Conner
DeVonta Smith
Courtland Sutton
D.J. Chark
Will Fuller
Michael Pittman
David Johnson
Devin Singletary
Gus Edwards
Leonard Fournette
Zack Moss
Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
Sony Michel
Jarvis Landry
Tony Pollard
Nyheim Hines
Marvin Jones
Tyler Boyd
Marquise Brown
Jaylen Waddle
Jalen Hurts
Michael Gallup
DeVante Parker
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Mike Gesicki
Logan Thomas
Latavius Murray
Rhamondre Stevenson
Corey Davis
RB33
RB34
RB35
QB9
RB36
TE7
TE8
TE9
RB37
RB38
WR35
WR36
WR37
WR38
WR39
RB39
RB40
RB41
RB42
RB43
QB10
QB11
RB44
WR40
RB45
RB46
WR41
WR42
WR43
WR44
QB12
WR45
WR46
QB13
QB14
TE10
TE11
RB47
RB48
WR47
STANDARD TOP 200
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
Nelson Agholor
Mike Williams
Darnell Mooney
Elijah Moore
Marquez Callaway
Curtis Samuel
T.Y. Hilton
Antonio Brown
Carlos Hyde
Tevin Coleman
Rob Gronkowski
Randall Cobb
Cole Beasley
Laviska Shenault
Mecole Hardman
Salvon Ahmed
Jalen Reagor
Jamison Crowder
Christian Kirk
Tre'Quan Smith
Henry Ruggs
Baker Mayfield
Kirk Cousins
Justin Fields
Alexander Mattison
Marlon Mack
Damien Williams
James White
Irv Smith
Evan Engram
Eric Ebron
Zach Ertz
J.D. McKissic
Rashaad Penny
Darrel Williams
Gio Bernard
Jakobi Meyers
Gabriel Davis
Russell Gage
Darius Slayton
WR48
WR49
WR50
WR51
WR52
WR53
WR54
WR55
RB49
RB50
TE12
WR56
WR57
WR58
WR59
RB51
WR60
WR61
WR62
WR63
WR64
QB15
QB16
QB17
RB52
RB53
RB54
RB55
TE13
TE14
TE15
TE16
RB56
RB57
RB58
RB59
WR65
WR66
WR67
WR68
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
Sterling Shepard
Tyrell Williams
Rondale Moore
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Derek Carr
Trevor Lawrence
Tua Tagovailoa
Trey Lance
Justin Jackson
Joshua Kelley
John Brown
M. Valdes-Scantling
Tyler Higbee
Hunter Henry
Jared Cook
Blake Jarwin
Malcolm Brown
Khalil Herbert
Darrynton Evans
Chuba Hubbard
Mark Ingram
Qadree Ollison
Matt Breida
Jerick McKinnon
Parris Campbell
Benny Snell
Kenny Gainwell
DeSean Jackson
Rashod Bateman
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Xavier Jones
La'Micael Perine
Brian Hill
Wayne Gallman
Devontae Booker
Anthony McFarland
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tarik Cohen
Emmanuel Sanders
WR69
WR70
WR71
QB18
QB19
QB20
QB21
QB22
QB23
RB60
RB61
WR72
WR73
TE17
TE18
TE19
TE20
RB62
RB63
RB64
RB65
RB66
RB67
RB68
RB69
WR74
RB70
RB71
WR75
WR76
WR77
RB72
RB73
RB74
RB75
RB76
RB77
RB78
RB79
WR78
PPR TOP 200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Christian McCaffrey
Alvin Kamara
Dalvin Cook
Saquon Barkley
Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill
Ezekiel Elliott
Aaron Jones
Nick Chubb
Derrick Henry
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
DK Metcalf
Travis Kelce
Joe Mixon
Austin Ekeler
Antonio Gibson
Calvin Ridley
Keenan Allen
Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown
Jonathan Taylor
Josh Jacobs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Najee Harris
J.K. Dobbins
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Patrick Mahomes
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Allen Robinson
Terry McLaurin
David Montgomery
Miles Sanders
Chris Carson
Amari Cooper
D.J. Moore
James Robinson
D'Andre Swift
RB1
RB2
RB3
RB4
WR1
WR2
RB5
RB6
RB7
RB8
WR3
WR4
WR5
TE1
RB9
RB10
RB11
WR6
WR7
WR8
WR9
RB12
RB13
RB14
RB15
RB16
TE2
TE3
QB1
WR10
WR11
WR12
WR13
RB17
RB18
RB19
WR14
WR15
RB20
RB21
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Darrell Henderson
Julio Jones
Kareem Hunt
Robert Woods
Tyler Lockett
Diontae Johnson
Cooper Kupp
CeeDee Lamb
Mark Andrews
Aaron Rodgers
Josh Allen
Adam Thielen
Brandon Aiyuk
Chase Edmonds
Myles Gaskin
Melvin Gordon
Robby Anderson
Odell Beckham
Michael Thomas
Ja'Marr Chase
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Mike Davis
Kenyan Drake
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
T.J. Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Tee Higgins
Deebo Samuel
Jerry Jeudy
Javonte Williams
Ronald Jones
Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott
DeVonta Smith
Kenny Golladay
Jarvis Landry
Brandin Cooks
Chase Claypool
RB22
WR16
RB23
WR17
WR18
WR19
WR20
WR21
TE4
QB2
QB3
WR22
WR23
RB24
RB25
RB26
WR24
WR25
WR26
WR27
WR28
RB27
RB28
QB4
QB5
QB6
TE5
TE6
WR29
WR30
WR31
RB29
RB30
QB7
QB8
WR32
WR33
WR34
WR35
WR36
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Michael Pittman
Tyler Boyd
Courtland Sutton
Michael Carter
Damien Harris
Raheem Mostert
Trey Sermon
D.J. Chark
Nyheim Hines
Jamaal Williams
Dallas Goedert
Noah Fant
Robert Tonyan
David Johnson
A.J. Dillon
Cole Beasley
Leonard Fournette
Devin Singletary
Tom Brady
James Conner
Marquise Brown
Will Fuller
Marvin Jones
Mike Gesicki
Logan Thomas
Corey Davis
Michael Gallup
Jaylen Waddle
Gus Edwards
Tony Pollard
James White
Elijah Moore
Curtis Samuel
Marquez Callaway
DeVante Parker
Phillip Lindsay
Randall Cobb
Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
Jamison Crowder
WR37
WR38
WR39
RB31
RB32
RB33
RB34
WR40
RB35
RB36
TE7
TE8
TE9
RB37
RB38
WR41
RB39
RB40
QB9
RB41
WR42
WR43
WR44
TE10
TE11
WR45
WR46
WR47
RB42
RB43
RB44
WR48
WR49
WR50
WR51
RB45
WR52
QB10
QB11
WR53
PPR TOP 200
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
Antonio Brown
Nelson Agholor
Zack Moss
Sony Michel
J.D. McKissic
Mike Williams
Darnell Mooney
T.Y. Hilton
Laviska Shenault
Jalen Hurts
Mecole Hardman
Gio Bernard
Carlos Hyde
Latavius Murray
Rhamondre Stevenson
Tevin Coleman
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Tre'Quan Smith
Rob Gronkowski
Jakobi Meyers
Jalen Reagor
Russell Gage
Sterling Shepard
Christian Kirk
Irv Smith
Evan Engram
Eric Ebron
Zach Ertz
Salvon Ahmed
Henry Ruggs
Alexander Mattison
Damien Williams
Justin Jackson
Adam Humphries
Hunter Renfrow
Rondale Moore
Tyrell Williams
Darius Slayton
Marlon Mack
WR54
WR55
RB46
RB47
RB48
WR56
WR57
WR58
WR59
QB12
WR60
RB49
RB50
RB51
RB52
RB53
QB13
QB14
WR61
TE12
WR62
WR63
WR64
WR65
WR66
TE13
TE14
TE15
TE16
RB54
WR67
RB55
RB56
RB57
WR68
WR69
WR70
WR71
WR72
RB58
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
Darrel Williams
Baker Mayfield
Kirk Cousins
Justin Fields
Khalil Herbert
Darrynton Evans
Tarik Cohen
Kenny Gainwell
Rashaad Penny
Jerick McKinnon
Parris Campbell
Tyler Higbee
Hunter Henry
Jared Cook
Blake Jarwin
Malcolm Brown
Joshua Kelley
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Derek Carr
Trevor Lawrence
Tua Tagovailoa
Trey Lance
Emmanuel Sanders
Chuba Hubbard
Mark Ingram
Matt Breida
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
John Brown
M. Valdes-Scantling
Gabriel Davis
Rashod Bateman
Qadree Ollison
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DeSean Jackson
Xavier Jones
La'Micael Perine
Brian Hill
Allen Lazard
Benny Snell
RB59
QB15
QB16
QB17
RB60
RB61
RB62
RB63
RB64
RB65
WR73
TE17
TE18
TE19
TE20
RB66
RB67
QB18
QB19
QB20
QB21
QB22
QB23
WR74
RB68
RB69
RB70
RB71
WR75
WR76
WR77
WR78
RB72
WR79
WR80
RB73
RB74
RB75
WR81
RB76
SUPERFLEX STANDARD TOP 200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Dalvin Cook
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb
Derrick Henry
Saquon Barkley
Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill
Aaron Jones
Ezekiel Elliott
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
DK Metcalf
Aaron Rodgers
Josh Allen
Travis Kelce
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Joe Mixon
Jonathan Taylor
Josh Jacobs
Antonio Gibson
J.K. Dobbins
Najee Harris
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Calvin Ridley
Mike Evans
A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson
Keenan Allen
Chris Godwin
Allen Robinson
Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott
Tom Brady
Austin Ekeler
Chris Carson
RB1
RB2
RB3
QB1
RB4
RB5
RB6
WR1
WR2
RB7
RB8
WR3
WR4
WR5
QB2
QB3
TE1
QB4
QB5
QB6
RB9
RB10
RB11
RB12
RB13
RB14
TE2
TE3
WR6
WR7
WR8
WR9
WR10
WR11
WR12
QB7
QB8
QB9
RB15
RB16
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
David Montgomery
James Robinson
Miles Sanders
Terry McLaurin
D'Andre Swift
Darrell Henderson
Kareem Hunt
D.J. Moore
Julio Jones
Tyler Lockett
Amari Cooper
Robert Woods
Diontae Johnson
CeeDee Lamb
Jalen Hurts
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Adam Thielen
Cooper Kupp
Brandon Aiyuk
Baker Mayfield
Kirk Cousins
Justin Fields
Mark Andrews
Odell Beckham
Robby Anderson
Ja'Marr Chase
Chase Claypool
Tee Higgins
Jerry Jeudy
Kenny Golladay
Michael Thomas
Melvin Gordon
Javonte Williams
Mike Davis
Damien Harris
Myles Gaskin
RB17
QB10
QB11
RB18
RB19
RB20
WR13
RB21
RB22
RB23
WR14
WR15
WR16
WR17
WR18
WR19
WR20
QB12
QB13
QB14
WR21
WR22
WR23
QB15
QB16
QB17
TE4
WR24
WR25
WR26
WR27
WR28
WR29
WR30
WR31
RB24
RB25
RB26
RB27
RB28
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Trey Sermon
Raheem Mostert
Ronald Jones
T.J. Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Derek Carr
Trevor Lawrence
Tua Tagovailoa
Trey Lance
Chase Edmonds
Brandin Cooks
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
A.J. Dillon
Kenyan Drake
Michael Carter
Jamaal Williams
Dallas Goedert
Noah Fant
Robert Tonyan
Phillip Lindsay
James Conner
DeVonta Smith
Courtland Sutton
D.J. Chark
Will Fuller
Michael Pittman
Carson Wentz
David Johnson
Devin Singletary
Gus Edwards
Leonard Fournette
Zack Moss
Sony Michel
Jarvis Landry
Tony Pollard
Nyheim Hines
Daniel Jones
RB29
RB30
RB31
TE5
TE6
QB18
QB19
QB20
QB21
QB22
QB23
RB32
WR32
WR33
WR34
RB33
RB34
RB35
RB36
TE7
TE8
TE9
RB37
RB38
WR35
WR36
WR37
WR38
WR39
QB24
RB39
RB40
RB41
RB42
RB43
RB44
WR40
RB45
RB46
QB25
SUPERFLEX STANDARD TOP 200
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
Marvin Jones
Tyler Boyd
Marquise Brown
Jaylen Waddle
Michael Gallup
DeVante Parker
Mike Gesicki
Logan Thomas
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff
Latavius Murray
Rhamondre Stevenson
Corey Davis
Nelson Agholor
Mike Williams
Darnell Mooney
Elijah Moore
Marquez Callaway
Curtis Samuel
T.Y. Hilton
Antonio Brown
Jameis Winston
Zach Wilson
Tyrod Taylor
Carlos Hyde
Tevin Coleman
Rob Gronkowski
Randall Cobb
Cole Beasley
Laviska Shenault
Mecole Hardman
Cam Newton
Teddy Bridgewater
Jimmy Garoppolo
Taysom Hill
Drew Lock
Mac Jones
Salvon Ahmed
Jalen Reagor
Jamison Crowder
WR41
WR42
WR43
WR44
WR45
WR46
TE10
TE11
QB26
QB27
RB47
RB48
WR47
WR48
WR49
WR50
WR51
WR52
WR53
WR54
WR55
QB28
QB29
QB30
RB49
RB50
TE12
WR56
WR57
WR58
WR59
QB31
QB32
QB33
QB34
QB35
QB36
RB51
WR60
WR61
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
Christian Kirk
Tre'Quan Smith
Henry Ruggs
Alexander Mattison
Marlon Mack
Damien Williams
James White
Irv Smith
Evan Engram
Eric Ebron
Zach Ertz
J.D. McKissic
Rashaad Penny
Darrel Williams
Gio Bernard
Jakobi Meyers
Gabriel Davis
Russell Gage
Darius Slayton
Sterling Shepard
Tyrell Williams
Rondale Moore
Justin Jackson
Joshua Kelley
Brian Hill
John Brown
M. Valdes-Scantling
Tyler Higbee
Hunter Henry
Jared Cook
Blake Jarwin
Malcolm Brown
Khalil Herbert
Chuba Hubbard
Mark Ingram
Qadree Ollison
Matt Breida
Jerick McKinnon
Parris Campbell
Benny Snell
WR62
WR63
WR64
RB52
RB53
RB54
RB55
TE13
TE14
TE15
TE16
RB56
RB57
RB58
RB59
WR65
WR66
WR67
WR68
WR69
WR70
WR71
RB60
RB61
RB62
WR72
WR73
TE17
TE18
TE19
TE20
RB63
RB64
RB65
RB66
RB67
RB68
RB69
WR74
RB70
SUPERFLEX PPR TOP 200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Christian McCaffrey
Alvin Kamara
Dalvin Cook
Patrick Mahomes
Saquon Barkley
Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill
Ezekiel Elliott
Aaron Jones
Nick Chubb
Derrick Henry
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
DK Metcalf
Travis Kelce
Aaron Rodgers
Josh Allen
Joe Mixon
Austin Ekeler
Antonio Gibson
Calvin Ridley
Keenan Allen
Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Jonathan Taylor
Josh Jacobs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Najee Harris
J.K. Dobbins
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Allen Robinson
Terry McLaurin
Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott
RB1
RB2
RB3
QB1
RB4
WR1
WR2
RB5
RB6
RB7
RB8
WR3
WR4
WR5
TE1
QB2
QB3
RB9
RB10
RB11
WR6
WR7
WR8
WR9
QB4
QB5
QB6
RB12
RB13
RB14
RB15
RB16
TE2
TE3
WR10
WR11
WR12
WR13
QB7
QB8
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Tom Brady
David Montgomery
Miles Sanders
Chris Carson
Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
Amari Cooper
D.J. Moore
James Robinson
D'Andre Swift
Darrell Henderson
Julio Jones
Robert Woods
Tyler Lockett
Diontae Johnson
Cooper Kupp
CeeDee Lamb
Mark Andrews
Adam Thielen
Brandon Aiyuk
Jalen Hurts
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Kareem Hunt
Chase Edmonds
Myles Gaskin
Baker Mayfield
Kirk Cousins
Justin Fields
Melvin Gordon
Robby Anderson
Odell Beckham
Michael Thomas
Ja'Marr Chase
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Mike Davis
Kenyan Drake
T.J. Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Tee Higgins
QB9
RB17
RB18
RB19
QB10
QB11
WR14
WR15
RB20
RB21
RB22
WR16
WR17
WR18
WR19
WR20
WR21
TE4
WR22
WR23
QB12
QB13
QB14
RB23
RB24
RB25
QB15
QB16
QB17
RB26
WR24
WR25
WR26
WR27
WR28
RB27
RB28
TE5
TE6
WR29
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Deebo Samuel
Jerry Jeudy
Javonte Williams
Ronald Jones
DeVonta Smith
Kenny Golladay
Jarvis Landry
Brandin Cooks
Chase Claypool
Michael Pittman
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Derek Carr
Trevor Lawrence
Tua Tagovailoa
Trey Lance
Tyler Boyd
Courtland Sutton
Michael Carter
Damien Harris
Raheem Mostert
Trey Sermon
D.J. Chark
Nyheim Hines
Jamaal Williams
Dallas Goedert
Noah Fant
Robert Tonyan
David Johnson
A.J. Dillon
Cole Beasley
Leonard Fournette
Devin Singletary
James Conner
Carson Wentz
Marquise Brown
Will Fuller
Marvin Jones
Mike Gesicki
Logan Thomas
WR30
WR31
RB29
RB30
WR32
WR33
WR34
WR35
WR36
WR37
QB18
QB19
QB20
QB21
QB22
QB23
WR38
WR39
RB31
RB32
RB33
RB34
WR40
RB35
RB36
TE7
TE8
TE9
RB37
RB38
WR41
RB39
RB40
RB41
QB24
WR42
WR43
WR44
TE10
TE11
SUPERFLEX PPR TOP 200
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
Corey Davis
Michael Gallup
Jaylen Waddle
Gus Edwards
Tony Pollard
James White
Elijah Moore
Daniel Jones
Curtis Samuel
Marquez Callaway
DeVante Parker
Phillip Lindsay
Randall Cobb
Jamison Crowder
Antonio Brown
Nelson Agholor
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff
Zack Moss
Sony Michel
J.D. McKissic
Mike Williams
Darnell Mooney
T.Y. Hilton
Laviska Shenault
Mecole Hardman
Gio Bernard
Carlos Hyde
Latavius Murray
Rhamondre Stevenson
Tevin Coleman
Jameis Winston
Zach Wilson
Tyrod Taylor
Tre'Quan Smith
Rob Gronkowski
Jakobi Meyers
Jalen Reagor
Cam Newton
Teddy Bridgewater
WR45
WR46
WR47
RB42
RB43
RB44
WR48
QB25
WR49
WR50
WR51
RB45
WR52
WR53
WR54
WR55
QB26
QB27
RB46
RB47
RB48
WR56
WR57
WR58
WR59
WR60
RB49
RB50
RB51
RB52
RB53
QB28
QB29
QB30
WR61
TE12
WR62
WR63
QB31
QB32
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
Jimmy Garoppolo
Taysom Hill
Drew Lock
Mac Jones
Russell Gage
Sterling Shepard
Christian Kirk
Irv Smith
Evan Engram
Eric Ebron
Zach Ertz
Salvon Ahmed
Henry Ruggs
Alexander Mattison
Damien Williams
Justin Jackson
Adam Humphries
Hunter Renfrow
Rondale Moore
Tyrell Williams
Darius Slayton
Marlon Mack
Darrel Williams
Khalil Herbert
Darrynton Evans
Tarik Cohen
Kenny Gainwell
Rashaad Penny
Jerick McKinnon
Parris Campbell
Tyler Higbee
Hunter Henry
Jared Cook
Blake Jarwin
Malcolm Brown
Joshua Kelley
Emmanuel Sanders
Chuba Hubbard
Mark Ingram
Matt Breida
QB33
QB34
QB35
QB36
WR64
WR65
WR66
TE13
TE14
TE15
TE16
RB54
WR67
RB55
RB56
RB57
WR68
WR69
WR70
WR71
WR72
RB58
RB59
RB60
RB61
RB62
RB63
RB64
RB65
WR73
TE17
TE18
TE19
TE20
RB66
RB67
WR74
RB68
RB69
RB70
DYNASTY STANDARD TOP 200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
Alvin Kamara
Nick Chubb
Tyreek Hill
DK Metcalf
Jonathan Taylor
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
Derrick Henry
Travis Kelce
Najee Harris
Aaron Jones
Ezekiel Elliott
A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson
Michael Thomas
Calvin Ridley
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Patrick Mahomes
D'Andre Swift
Joe Mixon
Josh Jacobs
Antonio Gibson
J.K. Dobbins
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Allen Robinson
Keenan Allen
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
CeeDee Lamb
Kenny Golladay
Terry McLaurin
Brandon Aiyuk
D.J. Moore
Ja'Marr Chase
Austin Ekeler
RB1
RB2
RB3
RB4
RB5
WR1
WR2
RB6
WR3
WR4
WR5
RB7
TE1
RB8
RB9
RB10
WR6
WR7
WR8
WR9
TE2
TE3
QB1
RB11
RB12
RB13
RB14
RB15
WR10
WR11
WR12
WR13
RB16
WR14
WR15
WR16
WR17
WR18
WR19
RB17
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Diontae Johnson
Miles Sanders
Josh Allen
Amari Cooper
Chris Carson
Tee Higgins
Kareem Hunt
David Montgomery
Kyler Murray
Russell Wilson
Lamar Jackson
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Aaron Rodgers
Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott
Trey Lance
Kyle Pitts
Jerry Jeudy
Julio Jones
Tyler Lockett
Robert Woods
Chase Claypool
DeVonta Smith
Cooper Kupp
T.J. Hockenson
Mark Andrews
Courtland Sutton
Odell Beckham
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Jaylen Waddle
Marquise Brown
Deebo Samuel
D.J. Chark
Joe Burrow
Michael Pittman
Tony Pollard
Javonte Williams
Trey Sermon
James Robinson
WR20
RB18
QB2
WR21
RB19
WR22
RB20
RB21
QB3
QB4
QB5
QB6
QB7
QB8
QB9
QB10
QB11
TE4
WR23
WR24
WR25
WR26
WR27
WR28
WR29
TE5
TE6
WR30
WR31
WR32
WR33
WR34
WR35
WR36
QB12
WR37
RB22
RB23
RB24
RB25
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Dallas Goedert
Noah Fant
Darrell Henderson
Robby Anderson
A.J. Dillon
Chase Edmonds
Adam Thielen
Brandin Cooks
Damien Harris
Mike Davis
Myles Gaskin
Ronald Jones
Michael Gallup
Raheem Mostert
Melvin Gordon
Devin Singletary
Will Fuller
Leonard Fournette
Zack Moss
Kenyan Drake
Curtis Samuel
Tyler Boyd
Mike Gesicki
Cam Akers
Deshaun Watson
Michael Carter
James Conner
Rashod Bateman
Elijah Moore
Irv Smith
Jarvis Landry
Travis Etienne
Terrace Marshall
Tylan Wallace
Rondale Moore
Rhamondre Stevenson
Phillip Lindsay
Gus Edwards
Logan Thomas
Robert Tonyan
TE7
TE8
RB26
WR38
RB27
RB28
WR39
WR40
RB29
RB30
RB31
RB32
WR41
RB33
RB34
RB35
WR42
RB36
RB37
RB38
WR43
WR44
TE9
RB39
QB13
RB40
RB41
WR45
WR46
TE10
WR47
RB42
WR48
WR49
WR50
RB43
RB44
RB45
TE11
TE12
DYNASTY STANDARD TOP 200
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
Tom Brady
Matthew Stafford
Corey Davis
Nyheim Hines
Mike Williams
Jalen Reagor
Laviska Shenault
Dyami Brown
DeVante Parker
Jalen Hurts
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Tua Tagovailoa
Darnell Mooney
Henry Ruggs
Parris Campbell
Marquez Callaway
Kadarius Toney
Amari Rodgers
Rob Gronkowski
Jamaal Williams
Christian Kirk
Sony Michel
Rashaad Penny
Baker Mayfield
Salvon Ahmed
Marvin Jones
Alexander Mattison
Hunter Henry
Zach Ertz
Pat Freiermuth
Bryan Edwards
Mecole Hardman
Nelson Agholor
Khalil Herbert
Tevin Coleman
Jamison Crowder
T.Y. Hilton
Latavius Murray
Darius Slayton
QB14
QB15
WR51
RB46
WR52
WR53
WR54
WR55
WR56
QB16
QB17
QB18
QB19
WR57
WR58
WR59
WR60
WR61
WR62
TE13
RB47
WR63
RB48
RB49
QB20
RB50
WR64
RB51
TE14
TE15
TE16
WR65
WR66
WR67
RB52
RB53
WR68
WR69
RB54
WR70
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
Sterling Shepard
Evan Engram
Cole Kmet
Carson Wentz
Zach Wilson
Chuba Hubbard
Gio Bernard
Kenny Gainwell
David Johnson
Tyler Higbee
Tre'Quan Smith
Antonio Brown
Russell Gage
Gabriel Davis
Adam Trautman
Kirk Cousins
J.D. McKissic
K.J. Hamler
Jakobi Meyers
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Darrynton Evans
Tyrell Williams
Jared Cook
Blake Jarwin
Austin Hooper
M. Valdes-Scantling
La'Micael Perine
Justin Jackson
Derek Carr
O.J. Howard
Tarik Cohen
Cole Beasley
Jonnu Smith
Kylin Hill
Mac Jones
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nico Collins
James White
Van Jefferson
Jeff Wilson
WR71
TE17
TE18
QB21
QB22
RB55
RB56
RB57
RB58
TE19
WR72
WR73
WR74
WR75
TE20
QB23
RB59
WR76
WR77
RB60
RB61
WR78
TE21
TE22
TE23
WR79
RB62
RB63
QB24
TE24
RB64
WR80
TE25
RB65
QB25
WR81
WR82
RB66
WR83
RB67
DYNASTY PPR TOP 200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey
Alvin Kamara
Dalvin Cook
Tyreek Hill
DK Metcalf
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
Nick Chubb
Jonathan Taylor
Travis Kelce
Ezekiel Elliott
Aaron Jones
Derrick Henry
Michael Thomas
A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson
Calvin Ridley
Najee Harris
George Kittle
Darren Waller
D'Andre Swift
Joe Mixon
Antonio Gibson
J.K. Dobbins
Patrick Mahomes
Keenan Allen
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Allen Robinson
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Josh Jacobs
Austin Ekeler
CeeDee Lamb
Terry McLaurin
Kenny Golladay
Brandon Aiyuk
D.J. Moore
Ja'Marr Chase
RB1
RB2
RB3
RB4
WR1
WR2
WR3
WR4
WR5
RB5
RB6
TE1
RB7
RB8
RB9
WR6
WR7
WR8
WR9
RB10
TE2
TE3
RB11
RB12
RB13
RB14
QB1
WR10
WR11
WR12
WR13
RB15
RB16
RB17
WR14
WR15
WR16
WR17
WR18
WR19
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Amari Cooper
Diontae Johnson
Miles Sanders
Kareem Hunt
Tee Higgins
David Montgomery
Chris Carson
Kyle Pitts
Robert Woods
Tyler Lockett
Josh Allen
Jerry Jeudy
Cooper Kupp
DeVonta Smith
Julio Jones
Chase Claypool
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
T.J. Hockenson
Mark Andrews
Courtland Sutton
Odell Beckham
Kyler Murray
Russell Wilson
Lamar Jackson
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Aaron Rodgers
Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott
Trey Lance
D.J. Chark
Michael Pittman
Jaylen Waddle
Marquise Brown
Chase Edmonds
Tony Pollard
Darrell Henderson
Dallas Goedert
Noah Fant
WR20
WR21
RB18
RB19
WR22
RB20
RB21
TE4
WR23
WR24
QB2
WR25
WR26
WR27
WR28
WR29
WR30
WR31
TE5
TE6
WR32
WR33
QB3
QB4
QB5
QB6
QB7
QB8
QB9
QB10
QB11
WR34
WR35
WR36
WR37
RB22
RB23
RB24
TE7
TE8
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Myles Gaskin
Kenyan Drake
Robby Anderson
Adam Thielen
Mike Davis
Brandin Cooks
Joe Burrow
Javonte Williams
Trey Sermon
James Robinson
A.J. Dillon
Michael Gallup
Tyler Boyd
Raheem Mostert
Ronald Jones
Damien Harris
Devin Singletary
Will Fuller
Michael Carter
Travis Etienne
Melvin Gordon
Leonard Fournette
Curtis Samuel
Mike Gesicki
Elijah Moore
Rashod Bateman
Terrace Marshall
Irv Smith
Jarvis Landry
Laviska Shenault
Zack Moss
Cam Akers
Rondale Moore
Nyheim Hines
Logan Thomas
Robert Tonyan
Deshaun Watson
DeVante Parker
Tylan Wallace
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB25
RB26
WR38
WR39
RB27
WR40
QB12
RB28
RB29
RB30
RB31
WR41
WR42
RB32
RB33
RB34
RB35
WR43
RB36
RB37
RB38
RB39
WR44
TE9
WR45
WR46
WR47
TE10
WR48
WR49
RB40
RB41
WR50
RB42
TE11
TE12
QB13
WR51
WR52
RB43
DYNASTY PPR TOP 200
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
James Conner
Phillip Lindsay
Gus Edwards
Darnell Mooney
Marquez Callaway
Dyami Brown
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
Jalen Reagor
Kadarius Toney
Parris Campbell
Henry Ruggs
Amari Rodgers
Christian Kirk
Jamison Crowder
Tom Brady
Matthew Stafford
Rob Gronkowski
Jamaal Williams
Rashaad Penny
Sterling Shepard
David Johnson
Kenny Gainwell
Salvon Ahmed
Marvin Jones
Bryan Edwards
Mecole Hardman
Hunter Henry
Zach Ertz
Pat Freiermuth
Sony Michel
Nelson Agholor
Jalen Hurts
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Tua Tagovailoa
Gio Bernard
Tevin Coleman
T.Y. Hilton
Darius Slayton
RB44
RB45
RB46
WR53
WR54
WR55
WR56
WR57
WR58
WR59
WR60
WR61
WR62
WR63
WR64
QB14
QB15
TE13
RB47
RB48
WR65
RB49
RB50
RB51
WR66
WR67
WR68
TE14
TE15
TE16
RB52
WR69
QB16
QB17
QB18
QB19
RB53
RB54
WR70
WR71
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
Evan Engram
Cole Kmet
Tyler Higbee
Tre'Quan Smith
Antonio Brown
Russell Gage
Khalil Herbert
Chuba Hubbard
Tarik Cohen
J.D. McKissic
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Darrynton Evans
Baker Mayfield
Alexander Mattison
Latavius Murray
Jakobi Meyers
Gabriel Davis
Adam Trautman
Justin Jackson
James White
K.J. Hamler
Cole Beasley
Tyrell Williams
Carson Wentz
Zach Wilson
Nico Collins
Amon-Ra St. Brown
M. Valdes-Scantling
Kirk Cousins
Jared Cook
Blake Jarwin
Austin Hooper
D'Wayne Eskridge
Randall Cobb
O.J. Howard
Jonnu Smith
Van Jefferson
Kylin Hill
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Josh Palmer
TE17
TE18
TE19
WR72
WR73
WR74
RB55
RB56
RB57
RB58
RB59
RB60
QB20
RB61
RB62
WR75
WR76
TE20
RB63
RB64
WR77
WR78
WR79
QB21
QB22
WR80
WR81
WR82
QB23
TE21
TE22
TE23
WR83
WR84
TE24
TE25
WR85
RB65
WR86
WR87
QB ARM STRENGTH
Patrick Mahomes
A+
Aaron Rodgers
A+
Josh Allen
A+
Matthew Stafford
A+
Russell Wilson
A
Kyler Murray
A
Lamar Jackson
A
Justin Herbert
A
Drew Lock
A
Derek Carr
A-
Jared Goff
B+
Jameis Winston
B+
Dak Prescott
B
Matt Ryan
B
Baker Mayfield
B
Carson Wentz
B
Daniel Jones
B
Sam Darnold
B
Tyrod Taylor
B
Taysom Hill
B
Tom Brady
B-
Ryan Tannehill
B-
Joe Burrow
C+
Kirk Cousins
C+
Jimmy Garoppolo
C+
Jalen Hurts
C
Ben Roethlisberger
C
Ryan Fitzpatrick
C
Tua Tagovailoa
C
Teddy Bridgewater
C-
Cam Newton
D
QB ACCURACY
Aaron Rodgers
A
Russell Wilson
A-
Tom Brady
A-
Kirk Cousins
A-
Jimmy Garoppolo
A-
Teddy Bridgewater
A-
Josh Allen
B+
Matt Ryan
B+
Ryan Fitzpatrick
B+
Patrick Mahomes
B
Ryan Tannehill
B
Baker Mayfield
B
Derek Carr
B
Taysom Hill
B
Kyler Murray
B-
Dak Prescott
B-
Lamar Jackson
C+
Justin Herbert
C+
Matthew Stafford
C+
Jared Goff
C+
Joe Burrow
C
Carson Wentz
C
Ben Roethlisberger
C
Tua Tagovailoa
C
Daniel Jones
C
Jameis Winston
C
Tyrod Taylor
C
Jalen Hurts
C-
Sam Darnold
C-
Cam Newton
C-
Drew Lock
D
QB VISION
Aaron Rodgers
A+
Tom Brady
A+
Joe Burrow
A-
Ben Roethlisberger
A-
Tua Tagovailoa
A-
Matt Ryan
B+
Jimmy Garoppolo
B+
Teddy Bridgewater
B+
Patrick Mahomes
B
Josh Allen
B
Justin Herbert
B
Matthew Stafford
B
Baker Mayfield
B
Kirk Cousins
B
Cam Newton
B
Drew Lock
B
Russell Wilson
B-
Carson Wentz
B-
Lamar Jackson
C+
Derek Carr
C+
Jared Goff
C+
Dak Prescott
C
Ryan Tannehill
C
Jalen Hurts
C
Sam Darnold
C
Kyler Murray
C-
Daniel Jones
C-
Jameis Winston
C-
Tyrod Taylor
C-
Taysom Hill
C-
Ryan Fitzpatrick
D
QB RUNNING
Kyler Murray
A+
Lamar Jackson
A+
Josh Allen
A
Jalen Hurts
A
Tyrod Taylor
A?
Cam Newton
A
Taysom Hill
A
Russell Wilson
A-
Patrick Mahomes
B+
Dak Prescott
B+?
Daniel Jones
B+
Justin Herbert
B
Ryan Tannehill
B
Carson Wentz
B
Ryan Fitzpatrick
B
Tua Tagovailoa
B
Sam Darnold
B
Jameis Winston
B
Drew Lock
C+
Matthew Stafford
C
Baker Mayfield
C
Kirk Cousins
C
Jared Goff
C
Teddy Bridgewater
C
Aaron Rodgers
C-
Joe Burrow
C-
Derek Carr
C-
Jimmy Garoppolo
C-
Matt Ryan
D
Tom Brady
F
Ben Roethlisberger
F
RB SPEED
Nyheim Hines
Tarik Cohen
Saquon Barkley
Miles Sanders
Phillip Lindsay
Nick Chubb
Jonathan Taylor
Antonio Gibson
J.K. Dobbins
Austin Ekeler
Tony Pollard
Tevin Coleman
Dalvin Cook
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
Joe Mixon
Darrell Henderson
Kenyan Drake
Salvon Ahmed
Damien Williams
Marlon Mack
Anthony McFarland
Darrynton Evans
Aaron Jones
Ezekiel Elliott
Josh Jacobs
D’Andre Swift
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Kareem Hunt
Raheem Mostert
Chase Edmonds
Devin Singletary
Leonard Fournette
Latavius Murray
A+
A+?
A?
A
A
AAAAAAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+?
B+?
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
Rashaad Penny
Alexander Mattison
Gio Bernard
Matt Breida
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Alex Collins
Melvin Gordon
Mike Davis
Myles Gaskin
Ronald Jones
David Johnson
James Conner
James White
J.D. McKissic
Jerick McKinnon
Joshua Kelley
Justin Jackson
Brian Hill
A.J. Dillon
Sony Michel
La’Mical Perine
Wayne Gallman
Devontae Booker
Chris Carson
David Montgomery
Damien Harris
Zack Moss
Benny Snell
Carlos Hyde
Mark Ingram
Gus Edwards
Jamaal Williams
Malcolm Brown
James Robinson
B?
B
B
B
B
B
BBBBBBBBBBBBC+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
CCCD
RB ELUSIVENESS
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
Saquon Barkley
Tarik Cohen
Alvin Kamara
Aaron Jones
Josh Jacobs
J.K. Dobbins
D’Andre Swift
Chase Edmonds
Phillip Lindsay
Marlon Mack
Matt Breida
Ezekiel Elliott
Joe Mixon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Darrell Henderson
Kenyan Drake
Tony Pollard
Darrynton Evans
Nick Chubb
Austin Ekeler
Mike Davis
Myles Gaskin
Devin Singletary
Nyheim Hines
Rashaad Penny
Salvon Ahmed
J.D. McKissic
Jerick McKinnon
Gio Bernard
Kareem Hunt
Melvin Gordon
Ronald Jones
Latavius Murray
A+
A
A?
A?
AAAAAAAA-?
AB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B?
B
B
B
B
BBBB-
Alexander Mattison
James White
Joshua Kelley
Justin Jackson
Devontae Booker
Anthony McFarland
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Jonathan Taylor
Miles Sanders
Raheem Mostert
David Johnson
Damien Harris
Tevin Coleman
Damien Williams
La’Mical Perine
Carlos Hyde
Antonio Gibson
David Montgomery
James Robinson
Jamaal Williams
Sony Michel
Benny Snell
Brian Hill
Wayne Gallman
Mark Ingram
Alex Collins
Chris Carson
A.J. Dillon
James Conner
Gus Edwards
Leonard Fournette
Zack Moss
Malcolm Brown
Derrick Henry
BBBBBBBC+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+?
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
CCCCCCCD
RB POWER
Derrick Henry
James Robinson
Nick Chubb
Saquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
Chris Carson
A.J. Dillon
James Conner
Gus Edwards
Leonard Fournette
Jonathan Taylor
Joe Mixon
Josh Jacobs
Antonio Gibson
David Montgomery
Kareem Hunt
David Johnson
Carlos Hyde
Melvin Gordon
Damien Harris
Zack Moss
Jamaal Williams
Latavius Murray
Rashaad Penny
Alexander Mattison
Benny Snell
Malcolm Brown
Mark Ingram
Alvin Kamara
Mike Davis
Ronald Jones
Tony Pollard
Sony Michel
Devontae Booker
J.K. Dobbins
A+
A+
A
A?
A
A
A
A
A
A
AAAAAAAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+?
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B-
Tevin Coleman
Damien Williams
Marlon Mack
Brian Hill
La’Mical Perine
Dalvin Cook
Miles Sanders
Raheem Mostert
Joshua Kelley
Wayne Gallman
Alex Collins
Aaron Jones
D’Andre Swift
Darrell Henderson
Kenyan Drake
Devin Singletary
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Christian McCaffrey
Austin Ekeler
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Myles Gaskin
Gio Bernard
Justin Jackson
Darrynton Evans
Chase Edmonds
Phillip Lindsay
Nyheim Hines
Salvon Ahmed
James White
J.D. McKissic
Jerick McKinnon
Anthony McFarland
Matt Breida
Tarik Cohen
BB-?
B-?
BBC+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
C
CCCCCCCD
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
F
RB RECEIVING
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
David Johnson
James White
Austin Ekeler
Chase Edmonds
Nyheim Hines
J.D. McKissic
Jerick McKinnon
Gio Bernard
Saquon Barkley
D’Andre Swift
Kareem Hunt
Tarik Cohen
Dalvin Cook
Aaron Jones
Ezekiel Elliott
Melvin Gordon
Mike Davis
Myles Gaskin
Salvon Ahmed
Damien Williams
Nick Chubb
Joe Mixon
Antonio Gibson
J.K. Dobbins
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Miles Sanders
Darrell Henderson
James Robinson
James Conner
Tony Pollard
Jamaal Williams
Joshua Kelley
Justin Jackson
A+
A+
A+
A+
A
A
A
A
A
A
AAAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B?
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
La’Mical Perine
Devontae Booker
Mark Ingram
Darrynton Evans
Jonathan Taylor
Josh Jacobs
Chris Carson
Raheem Mostert
Kenyan Drake
Phillip Lindsay
Devin Singletary
Leonard Fournette
Tevin Coleman
Marlon Mack
Anthony McFarland
Matt Breida
David Montgomery
Ronald Jones
Latavius Murray
Rashaad Penny
Carlos Hyde
Wayne Gallman
Zack Moss
Alexander Mattison
Brian Hill
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
A.J. Dillon
Sony Michel
Benny Snell
Alex Collins
Derrick Henry
Damien Harris
Gus Edwards
Malcolm Brown
B
B
B
B
BBBBBBBBBBBBC+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
CCCCD
D
D
D
WR SPEED
Tyreek Hill
D.K. Metcalf
Robby Anderson
Marquise Brown
Brandin Cooks
Will Fuller
Henry Ruggs
Mecole Hardman
Terry McLaurin
Tyler Lockett
Chase Claypool
D.J. Chark
Curtis Samuel
Darius Slayton
Jalen Reagor
Darnell Mooney
Parris Campbell
DeSean Jackson
Diontae Johnson
Odell Beckham
Nelson Agholor
John Brown
Stefon Diggs
Mike Evans
Justin Jefferson
Julio Jones
Kenny Golladay
D.J. Moore
Amari Cooper
CeeDee Lamb
Adam Thielen
DeVante Parker
Jerry Jeudy
Marvin Jones
T.Y. Hilton
Christian Kirk
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A?
A
AA-?
AAB+
B+
B+
B+?
B+?
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tyrell Williams
DeAndre Hopkins
Calvin Ridley
A.J. Brown
Chris Godwin
Allen Robinson
Robert Woods
Brandon Aiyuk
Deebo Samuel
Michael Gallup
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
Sterling Shepard
Laviska Shenault
Antonio Brown
Tre’Quan Smith
Russell Gage
Davante Adams
Juju Smith-Schuster
Michael Pittman
Cooper Kupp
Michael Thomas
Keenan Allen
Courtland Sutton
Tee Higgins
Jarvis Landry
Tyler Boyd
Randall Cobb
Jamison Crowder
Cole Beasley
Quintez Cephus
Adam Humphries
Jakobi Meyers
Hunter Renfrow
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
BBBC+
C
C
C?
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
CC-
WR ELUSIVENESS
Tyreek Hill
Odell Beckham
Brandin Cooks
Stefon Diggs
Tyler Lockett
Amari Cooper
Marquise Brown
Parris Campbell
Calvin Ridley
Justin Jefferson
Diontae Johnson
Jerry Jeudy
Jarvis Landry
Sterling Shepard
Antonio Brown
Keenan Allen
Julio Jones
D.J. Moore
CeeDee Lamb
Cooper Kupp
Brandon Aiyuk
T.Y. Hilton
Jamison Crowder
Cole Beasley
Darnell Mooney
Adam Humphries
Hunter Renfrow
Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins
Michael Thomas
Allen Robinson
Terry McLaurin
Robert Woods
Courtland Sutton
Robby Anderson
Deebo Samuel
A+
A+?
A+
A
A
A
A
A?
AAAAAAAB+
B+?
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B?
B
B
D.J. Chark
Will Fuller
Curtis Samuel
Nelson Agholor
Randall Cobb
Darius Slayton
John Brown
Henry Ruggs
Laviska Shenault
Mecole Hardman
Quintez Cephus
Mike Evans
A.J. Brown
Chris Godwin
Kenny Golladay
Juju Smith-Schuster
Michael Pittman
Tyler Boyd
Michael Gallup
Christian Kirk
Jalen Reagor
Russell Gage
Jakobi Meyers
Adam Thielen
Chase Claypool
Tee Higgins
DeVante Parker
Corey Davis
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DeSean Jackson
D.K. Metcalf
Marvin Jones
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Tre’Quan Smith
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
BBBB-?
BBBBBBBBC+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
WR END ZONE
Mike Evans
Davante Adams
Julio Jones
Adam Thielen
Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins
D.K. Metcalf
Michael Thomas
Allen Robinson
Cooper Kupp
Tee Higgins
D.J. Chark
Marvin Jones
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
A.J. Brown
Keenan Allen
Chris Godwin
Kenny Golladay
Tyler Lockett
CeeDee Lamb
Odell Beckham
Chase Claypool
Deebo Samuel
Juju Smith-Schuster
DeVante Parker
Laviska Shenault
Tre’Quan Smith
Tyreek Hill
Stefon Diggs
Calvin Ridley
Terry McLaurin
Amari Cooper
Brandon Aiyuk
Marquise Brown
Michael Gallup
A+
A
A
A
A
AAAAAAAAAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
Corey Davis
Michael Pittman
Antonio Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Curtis Samuel
Jamison Crowder
Justin Jefferson
D.J. Moore
Robert Woods
Diontae Johnson
Tyler Boyd
Darius Slayton
Sterling Shepard
Brandin Cooks
Jerry Jeudy
Jarvis Landry
Nelson Agholor
Randall Cobb
Cole Beasley
Christian Kirk
John Brown
Jalen Reagor
Parris Campbell
Quintez Cephus
Hunter Renfrow
Russell Gage
Jakobi Meyers
Robby Anderson
Will Fuller
T.Y. Hilton
Henry Ruggs
Darnell Mooney
Mecole Hardman
DeSean Jackson
Adam Humphries
B
B
B
B
BBC+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C?
C
C
C
C
CCCD
D
D
D
D
WR HANDS
DeAndre Hopkins
Odell Beckham
Michael Thomas
Allen Robinson
Robert Woods
Antonio Brown
Hunter Renfrow
Keenan Allen
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
Julio Jones
Adam Thielen
Cooper Kupp
Juju Smith-Schuster
Marvin Jones
Tyler Boyd
Randall Cobb
Jamison Crowder
Michael Pittman
Jakobi Meyers
Tyreek Hill
Stefon Diggs
Justin Jefferson
Kenny Golladay
Courtland Sutton
Brandin Cooks
D.J. Chark
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
Sterling Shepard
Christian Kirk
Henry Ruggs
Laviska Shenault
Darnell Mooney
Tre’Quan Smith
DeSean Jackson
A+
A+
A
A
A
A
A
AAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
Quintez Cephus
Adam Humphries
Davante Adams
D.J. Moore
Tyler Lockett
Brandon Aiyuk
Robby Anderson
Tee Higgins
T.Y. Hilton
Cole Beasley
A.J. Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Chase Claypool
Marquise Brown
John Brown
D.K. Metcalf
Calvin Ridley
Mike Evans
Amari Cooper
Will Fuller
DeVante Parker
Jarvis Landry
Michael Gallup
Parris Campbell
Curtis Samuel
Darius Slayton
Jalen Reagor
Mecole Hardman
Russell Gage
Diontae Johnson
Deebo Samuel
Jerry Jeudy
Nelson Agholor
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tyrell Williams
B
B
BBBBBBBBC+
C+
C+
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C?
CCCCCD
D
D
D
D
D
TE SPEED
Darren Waller
Noah Fant
Evan Engram
O.J. Howard
George Kittle
Mike Gesicki
Zach Ertz
Irv Smith
Jonnu Smith
Gerald Everett
David Njoku
Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews
Dallas Goedert
T.J. Hockenson
Logan Thomas
Eric Ebron
Hunter Henry
Blake Jarwin
Dawson Knox
Dan Arnold
Harrison Bryant
Robert Tonyan
Tyler Higbee
Adam Trautman
Hayden Hurst
Jared Cook
Austin Hooper
Cole Kmet
Chris Herndon
Ty Conklin
Dalton Schultz
Donald Parham
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Anthony Firkser
Jack Doyle
Kyle Rudolph
A+
A
A
A?
AAAAAAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
BBB-?
BC+
C+
C+
C+
C
C
CCD
D
D
D
TE ROUTES
George Kittle
Travis Kelce
Zach Ertz
Mark Andrews
Dallas Goedert
T.J. Hockenson
Dan Arnold
Jack Doyle
Darren Waller
Logan Thomas
Irv Smith
Hunter Henry
Evan Engram
Gerald Everett
Anthony Firkser
Dawson Knox
Ty Conklin
Jimmy Graham
Hayden Hurst
Chris Herndon
Kyle Rudolph
Harrison Bryant
Eric Ebron
Austin Hooper
Noah Fant
Robert Tonyan
Blake Jarwin
O.J. Howard
David Njoku
Dalton Schultz
Mike Gesicki
Rob Gronkowski
Tyler Higbee
Jared Cook
Jonnu Smith
Donald Parham
Cole Kmet
Adam Trautman
A
AAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B?
B
B
B
B
B
BBC+
C+
C+
C+?
C+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
C?
C
NO IDEA
TE POWER
Travis Kelce
Rob Gronkowski
Kyle Rudolph
George Kittle
Dallas Goedert
Cole Kmet
Jack Doyle
Robert Tonyan
O.J. Howard
Jimmy Graham
Dalton Schultz
T.J. Hockenson
Noah Fant
Tyler Higbee
Jared Cook
Blake Jarwin
Jonnu Smith
Donald Parham
Adam Trautman
Hayden Hurst
David Njoku
Eric Ebron
Gerald Everett
Anthony Firkser
Darren Waller
Mark Andrews
Zach Ertz
Hunter Henry
Austin Hooper
Dawson Knox
Ty Conklin
Chris Herndon
Irv Smith
Evan Engram
Harrison Bryant
Mike Gesicki
Logan Thomas
Dan Arnold
A+
A+
A
AAAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
BBBC
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
CCCD
D
D
TE HANDS
Logan Thomas
Jack Doyle
Dallas Goedert
T.J. Hockenson
Robert Tonyan
Hunter Henry
Kyle Rudolph
George Kittle
Mike Gesicki
Rob Gronkowski
Tyler Higbee
Dan Arnold
Jimmy Graham
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant
Irv Smith
Blake Jarwin
Austin Hooper
Anthony Firkser
Cole Kmet
Dalton Schultz
Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews
Jonnu Smith
Harrison Bryant
Darren Waller
Zach Ertz
Gerald Everett
O.J. Howard
Dawson Knox
Chris Herndon
David Njoku
Evan Engram
Eric Ebron
Jared Cook
Donald Parham
Adam Trautman
Ty Conklin
A
A
AAAAAB+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B+
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
BBBBC+
C+
C
C
C
C
C
CD
D
?
?
?
QB AVERAGE YARDS AT TARGET
Drew Lock
9.0
Matthew Stafford
8.8
Tom Brady
8.6
Carson Wentz
8.6
Matt Ryan
8.5
Lamar Jackson
8.3
Joe Burrow
8.3
Baker Mayfield
8.3
Patrick Mahomes
8.2
Josh Allen
8.2
Ryan Tannehill
8.2
Russell Wilson
8.0
Aaron Rodgers
7.8
Kirk Cousins
7.8
Derek Carr
7.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick
7.7
Sam Darnold
7.5
Kyler Murray
7.4
Tua Tagovailoa
7.4
Daniel Jones
7.4
Justin Herbert
7.3
Ben Roethlisberger
7.0
Teddy Bridgewater
7.0
Cam Newton
6.8
Jared Goff
6.2
WR AVERAGE YARDS AT TARGET
Nelson Agholor
15.4
Chris Godwin
9.9
Mike Williams
14.5
Michael Thomas
9.8
Jerry Jeudy
14.5
Tyler Lockett
9.7
D.J. Chark
14.0
Allen Robinson
9.7
Calvin Ridley
14.0
Terry McLaurin
9.6
D.K. Metcalf
14.0
Brandon Aiyuk
9.4
D.J. Moore
13.6
Robby Anderson
9.4
Darius Slayton
13.5
CeeDee Lamb
9.2
Tyreek Hill
13.2
DeAndre Hopkins
9.0
Chase Claypool
13.2
Davante Adams
8.9
Marvin Jones
13.1
Michael Pittman
8.9
Marquise Brown
13.1
Amari Cooper
8.8
T.Y. Hilton
12.6
Antonio Brown
8.5
Corey Davis
12.2
Russell Gage
8.4
Will Fuller
12.1
Jarvis Landry
8.4
Tee Higgins
12.1
Tyler Boyd
8.4
Mike Evans
11.9
Sterling Shepard
8.1
Michael Gallup
11.9
Cole Beasley
8.0
Julio Jones
11.9
Jamison Crowder
8.0
Brandin Cooks
11.9
Diontae Johnson
8.0
Justin Jefferson
11.6
Keenan Allen
7.4
Darnell Mooney
11.6
Curtis Samuel
7.3
Christian Kirk
11.6
Randall Cobb
7.1
Adam Thielen
11.5
Hunter Renfrow
6.7
A.J. Brown
11.3
Robert Woods
6.7
Mecole Hardman
10.5
Cooper Kupp
6.3
Stefon Diggs
10.3
Laviska Shenault
6.0
DeVante Parker
10.0
Juju Smith-Schuster
5.7
WR SLOT PERCENT
CeeDee Lamb
90%
Michael Thomas
29%
Cole Beasley
89%
Allen Robinson
28%
Juju Smith-Schuster
83%
Tee Higgins
27%
Tyler Boyd
81%
Amari Cooper
26%
Randall Cobb
71%
Adam Thielen
26%
Jamison Crowder
68%
Will Fuller
25%
Curtis Samuel
66%
Michael Pittman
25%
Russell Gage
65%
Laviska Shenault
24%
Chris Godwin
62%
Marquise Brown
24%
Hunter Renfrow
61%
Mike Williams
24%
Tyler Lockett
59%
D.J. Chark
24%
Tyreek Hill
55%
Julio Jones
24%
Jarvis Landry
53%
DeVante Parker
23%
Cooper Kupp
53%
Corey Davis
22%
Keenan Allen
52%
Chase Claypool
22%
Mecole Hardman
49%
Brandon Aiyuk
22%
Robert Woods
42%
D.J. Moore
22%
Mike Evans
37%
Antonio Brown
21%
Nelson Agholor
33%
T.Y. Hilton
18%
Stefon Diggs
32%
Darnell Mooney
18%
Marvin Jones
32%
Darius Slayton
18%
Jerry Jeudy
32%
D.K. Metcalf
17%
Terry McLaurin
32%
A.J. Brown
15%
Robby Anderson
32%
Diontae Johnson
14%
Brandin Cooks
32%
Christian Kirk
13%
Justin Jefferson
31%
Calvin Ridley
11%
Sterling Shepard
30%
DeAndre Hopkins
10%
Davante Adams
30%
Michael Gallup
6%
TE AVERAGE YARDS AT TARGET
Dan Arnold
12.5
Jared Cook
11.3
Mike Gesicki
10.8
Rob Gronkowski
10.7
Mark Andrews
10.1
Travis Kelce
8.9
Dallas Goedert
8.7
Robert Tonyan
8.5
Irv Smith
8.4
Hunter Henry
8.0
Tyler Higbee
8.0
Darren Waller
7.9
Harrison Bryant
7.8
Hayden Hurst
7.7
Dawson Knox
7.5
Logan Thomas
7.4
Eric Ebron
7.4
George Kittle
7.3
Kyle Rudolph
7.3
Evan Engram
7.2
Jack Doyle
7.2
Zach Ertz
7.1
T.J. Hockenson
7.0
Austin Hooper
6.9
Anthony Firkser
6.9
Jimmy Graham
6.9
Chris Herndon
6.8
Noah Fant
6.6
Dalton Schultz
6.5
Cole Kmet
6.3
Gerald Everett
6.1
Jonnu Smith
5.6