Decision-making
frameworks for leaders
DIU Digital Leadership Model/DIU 数字领导力模
型
Guiding Principle/指导原则
To stay ahead of the competition, a company needs
tech-savvy and forward-thinking leaders who can
safely navigate their organisation through the digital
age. They have digital visions for the future and the
digital competence to implement them./为了在竞争中保
持领先，公司需要精通技术和具有前瞻性的领导者，他们
可以安全地驾驭他们的组织度过数字时代。 他们拥有对
未来的数字化愿景以及实施这些愿景的数字化能力。
*
Modul 5: Digital Leadership/模块5:数字领导力
•
Master new planning and forecasting tools to assess difficult situations and trends, identify opportunities,
derive strategies from them and make decisions even in the face of incalculable risks/掌握新的规划和预测工
具，以评估困难的情况和趋势，识别机会，从中制定战略，即使面对无法估量的风险也能做出决策
•
Are familiar with leadership principles, tools and methods in order to support and promote employees in the best
possible way, to leverage their strengths and to take them with them into the digital world/熟悉领导原则、工具和方法
，以便以最佳方式支持和提拔员工，发挥他们的优势并将他们带入数字世界
•
Have the ability to act agilely as a change agent, are capable of change yourself and can set an example of change
for your employees/有能力作为变革推动者敏捷行动，能够改变自己，并为员工树立变革榜样
•
Can communicate authentically online and offline, know how to do effective storytelling on social media platforms
and how to inspire an audience for a new idea and vision/可以在线和离线进行真实的交流，知道如何在社交媒体平台
上进行有效的讲故事，以及如何激发观众的新想法和愿景
*
Analysis tools around agility, digitalisation
and transformation关于敏捷性、数字化和转型的分
析工具
How can I (best) approach a problem or an issue? 我如何（最好）处理问题或纠纷？
Is there a perfect solution? 有完美的解决方案吗？
Can there be more than one way to reach the goal? 是否有不止一种方法可以达到
目标？
Who could be helpful in finding a solution? 谁可以帮助找到解决方案？
Does my "favourite" approach fit the problem or is it perhaps the problem itself?
我的“最喜欢”的方法是否适合问题，或者可能是问题本身？
Viable Systems Model (Anthony Stafford Beer) 可行系统模型
Agile Fluency Model (Diana Larsen and James Shore) 敏捷流畅度模型
•
•
• Cynefin Framework (Dave Snowden) Cynefin 框架
• Human Systems Dynamics / Adaptive Action (Glenda H. Eoyang and Royce
Holladay) 人体系统动力学/自适应动作
*
Let’s start our first experiment
让我们开始我们的第一个实验
Please take a blank sheet of paper. On the blank sheet of paper, write down all
the tasks, projects and to-dos that are currently on your desk. Keywords are
sufficient.
请拿一张白纸。 在一张白纸上，写下您当前办公桌上的所有任务、项目和待办事
项。 关键字就足够了。
In 3 minutes you will certainly have found 10-20 topics.
在 3 分钟内你肯定会找到 10-20 个主题。
*
Develop problem-solving approaches
appropriate to the solution 制定适合解决问题的方
•
案
The Cynefin Framework, developed by the research scientist Dave Snowden, was first
published November 2007 in Harvard Business Review由研究科学家戴夫斯诺登开发的 Cynefin 框
架于 2007 年 11 月首次发表在《哈佛商业评论》上
•
Since 2020, the Cynefin framework has been used more frequently again in the “VUCA
world” for challenges around digitalization and transformation自 2020 年以来，Cynefin 框架在
“VUCA 世界”中再次被更频繁地使用，以应对围绕数字化和转型的挑战
•
Whether a traditional management style or a more agile course of action is needed depends
on the complexity if the challenge是否需要传统的管理风格或更灵活的行动方案取决于挑战的复杂性
•
The Cynefin Framework model helps us to distinguish between four system types in order to
be able to draw conclusions for possible courses of action on the basis of themCynefin 框架模
型帮助我们区分四种系统类型，以便能够根据它们得出可能的行动方案的结论
•
Cynefin is a so-called sense-making framework, it is not meant to make a decision, but to
give you an orientationCynefin是一个所谓的sense-making框架，它不是用来做决定的，而是给你一个
方向的
*
The Cynefin FrameworkCynefin 框架
Source: https://thecynefin.co/about-us/about-cynefin-framework/
*
Many questions in the areas of leadership,
project management and other fields of work
can be allocated to different system types领导
力、项目管理和其他工作领域的许多问题可以分配到不同的系统类型
• Due to our learned profession, our working environment and our biography,
we tend to prefer one system type由于我们学习的专业、我们的工作环境和我们的
经历，我们倾向于选择一种系统形式
• The assessment of which type of system is characteristic can also depend on
the observer and his or her level of knowledge对哪种类型的系统具有特征的评估
还取决于观察者及其知识水平
• Leaders need to review their trained problem-solving strategy according to
problem category领导者需要根据问题类别审查他们训练有素的问题解决策略
• It can change over time: For example, an initially complex system can
become a complicated system through our learning about its functionalities
and regularities它会随着时间而改变：例如，一个最初的结构复杂系统可以通过我们
*
了解它的功能和规律而变成一个内部复杂的系统
Clear Context (in the original source called
“simple”) 清晰的上下文（在原始来源中称为“简要”）
CONTEXT’S CHARACTERISTICS上
下文的特征
THE LEADER’S JOB领导者的工作
• Sense-Categorize-Respond感知-分类-响
• Clear connection between causeand-effect因果关系清晰
• Repeting patterns and consistent
events重复模式和一致的事件
• Fact-based management,
“correct” answer 实事求是的管理，
“正确”的答案
• Processes should be/are in place
to handle the problems应该/已经
* 制定流程来处理问题
应
• Ensure that proper processes are in
place
确保适当的流程到位
• Command-and-control, delegate命令和控
制，委托
• No need for long discussion 无需长时间讨论
• Focus on optimization of processes,
automation and digitalisation, use of
algorithms专注于流程优化、自动化和数字化、算
Complicated Context 矛盾的背景
CONTEXT’S CHARACTERISTICS上
下文的特征
• Cause-and-effect relationships are
discoverable, but may not be
visible to everyone因果关系是可发
现的，但可能不是每个人都可见
• More than one right answer is
possible可能有多个正确答案
• Expert diagnosis is required需要专
家诊断
THE LEADER’S JOB领导者的工作
• Sense-Analyze-Respond感知-分析-响应
• Uncover the cause-effect relationships
(analyses, collection of data and expert
opinions, computations, statistical
process control etc.) 揭示因果关系（分析、
收集数据和专家意见、计算、统计过程控制等）
• “The domain of experts”: Create panel
of experts“专家领域”：创建专家小组
• Automation through expert systems通过
专家系统实现自动化
*
Complex Context复杂的背景
CONTEXT’S CHARACTERISTICS上
下文的特征
• Flux and unpredictable, impossible
to identify one “correct” solution通量
和不可预测的，不可能确定一个“正确”的
解决方案
• No right answers, but emerging
patterns没有正确的答案，但正在出现模式
• Only possibility is to work with
hypotheses and switch to an
business experimentation mode唯
*
一的可能是使用假设并切换到业务实验模式
THE LEADER’S JOB领导者的工作
•
Probe-Sense-Respond探测-感应-响应
•
Consciously turning away from the idea of
plannability有意识地远离可计划性的想法
•
Opening up to non-knowledge and a nonjudgemental attitud接受非知识和非评判态度
•
Area of usage of agile approaches敏捷方法的使用
领域
•
Document recognisable patterns (“debriefings”,
"lessons learned“) 记录可识别的模式（“汇报”、
“经验教训”）
•
“The domain of emergence” “出现的领域”
Chaotic Context混沌背景
CONTEXT’S CHARACTERISTICS上 THE LEADER’S JOB领导者的工作
下文的特征
• High turbulence高混乱
• No clear cause-and-effect
relationship, so no point in looking
for the right answers没有明确的因
果关系，因此没有必要寻找正确的
答案
• Many decisions to make and no
time to think许多决定要做，没有
时间思考
*
•
Act-Sense-Respond行动-感知-反应
•
Take immediate action to reestablish order
(command and control) 立即采取行动重建秩序
（指挥和控制）
•
Methods to navigate chaotic situations
successfully (e.g. risk analysis, emergency
protocols, step-by-step approach, regular
review of the direction) 成功驾驭混乱局面的方
法（例如风险分析、应急方案、循序渐进的方法、
定期审查方向）
•
“The domain of rapid response” “快速反应领域”
Back to our Cynefin experiment回到我们的
Cynefin 实验
Now take your list of about 10-20 tasks, projects, to-dos and assign them to the
problem categories presented. 现在列出大约 10-20 个任务、项目、待办事项的
清单，并将它们分配到提出的问题类别中。
Which items on your list are simple, complicated, complex or even chaotic? 你清
单上的哪些项目是简单的、复杂的、甚至是混乱的？
Then please count how many problems fall into which category. 那么请数一数有
多少问题属于哪一类。
*
Food for thought深思熟虑
In which "world" do I move myself and in which one do my colleagues,
employees, partners, superiors or customers move? What results from this? 我在
哪个“世界”中移动自己，我的同事、员工、合作伙伴、上级或客户在哪个“世界”中移动？ 结果是什
么？
For which system type is an error culture indispensable and where is it better to
avoid it? 对于哪种系统类型来说，错误文化是必不可少的，在哪里最好避免它？
Which system type do widely used management tools correspond to (e.g.
quality management, objective setting, competence management, budget
planning, etc.) and to which system types are they applied? Do these tools fit or
is there a need for other approaches? 广泛使用的管理工具对应于哪种系统类型（例如质量
管理、目标设定、能力管理、预算计划等），它们适用于哪些系统类型？ 这些工具适合还是需要其他方
法？
Do the solutions from the areas of agility, new work, design thinking, etc. fit all
operational
issues? Where should they be abandoned, if necessary? 敏捷性、新工
*
Deepening into the Cynefin framework深入
Cynefin框架
Harvard Business Review: A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making
https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making
IBM Systems Journal: The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a
complex and complicated world
http://alumni.media.mit.edu/~brooks/storybiz/kurtz.pdf
The Cynefin Framework, presented by Dave Snowdon
https://youtu.be/N7oz366X0-8
*
Cynefin for a professional soccer team
manager
职业足球队经理的 Cynefin
• Training plan for the holiday season? 假期训练计划？
• Planning for a home matchday? 计划主场比赛日？
• Presenting player contracts to the governing bodies? 向管理机构提交球员合
同？
• Injuries and loss of form? 受伤和失去组合？
• Squad/Cadre planning? 小队/干部计划？
*
Outlook展望
• Knowledge management and learning organization知识管理和学习型组织
• Experimentation in business environments商业环境中的实验
*