Economic Analysis
Macro economic analysis
Value added data
Export data
Input-Output tables
Analysis of exports: We calculate the
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
exports
and manufacturing as a whole using the
following formula:
Industrial performance at 2-digit level in SITC revision 3 and ISIC revision 3
INDSTAT
UN COMTRADE
The share of a country’s manufactured
exports is then calculated for the period
2000 to 2011 in order to measure the
country’s impact on world demand for
products of that particular industry
according to the following formula:
Exports of all countries to the rest of the world.
Here we use ISIC (International
Standard Industrial Classification) to obtain data on exports of 22 manufacturing
industries. The ISIC classification is based on revision 3 with the harmonized
system 1996
Exports of a selected economy to the rest of the world
Annual growth rate of domestic demand
The share of the country’s industries’ value
added (VA) in its total manufacturing value
added (MVA) is calculated for the period
Estimation of value added shares and
growth patterns of manufacturing
industries at different income levels
(development stage) for the identified
country groups
Structural change analysis
Interdependencies with other industries
Input-output tables for sectoral linkages
, The share of industry employment in total manufacturing employment
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ANALYSIS
Environmental Hot spots
energy, water, materials, labour as inputs and emissions, waste water and solid w
Proximity
Potential value (cool spots)
Each dimension of performance (energy, water, raw materials, emissions, solid waste, waste
water, labour) is analysed by studying the following: national context, hotspots, value missed,
customer value and potential, velocity of performance and capacity.
National contaxt
examines the country in question and identifies the relevant data
regarding constraints (i.e. resources the country lacks or that face significant strai
disadvantages and what the country does poorly); wealth (what the country does
the country has in abundance or where there is an absence of significant strain), a
(recent/relevant policy initiatives)
Hotspot analysis
examines each industry in question, identifying the most prominent negative
impacts and selecting the three to six most pressing issues for each environmenta
concern. The data is collected mainly from industry specific reports
Customer value and potential
looks at the industry’s products and explores whether the
market can exchange an increased value for those performance improvements th
reasonably be introduced.
This data is mainly
found in global industry reports, OEM reports and meetings with experts; it is me
scale of market opportunity, either as a percentage of growth or absolute market
Potential of value missed
evaluates each industry individually and examines the
opportunities to create value which may not yet have been captured within a par
This data is mainly found in global industry reports, OEM
reports and meetings with experts; it is measured by the scale of market opportu
percentage of growth or of absolute market scale.
Velocity of performance
seeks to determine how the industry in the country is performing
relative to the rest of the world based on the rate of change of given metrics of pe
Capacity
velocity of perforance
the capacity of the industry is calculated based on the proximity to the constraint
dimension.
REVISED ENVIRONMENTAL METHODOLOGY
constraint
s ((The
ability of
industry X
to
understan
d
current
and
future
constraint
s))
design of system
operation
(The(The
ability
monitoring
ability
of industry
of
education(The
(The
industry
ability
X to Xdevelop
of
toindustry
ability
deliver
a plan
ofcurrent
Xindustry
to
forassess
avalue
susta
X it
to
energy
water
raw materials
labour
emissions
solid waste
water waste
Perception of govt, industry and local people on the dimensions abive
Bingo! Water consumption can be collected from national water!!
FINAL RESULT
‘Green growth’, ‘’, ’, ‘,
These are industries that emerged as ‘economic winners’ based on our economic analysis;
at the same time, they are not near any limitations or negative values set out in our
environmental and social analyses.
•
Growth with care
These are industries that emerged as economic winners but that are quite near the
constraints defined in our environmental and social analyses
‘Strong medicine
These are industries that did not emerge as ‘economic winners’ but passed our
‘opportunity screening’ and were not near any constraints as defined in our environmental
and social analyses.
•
Double TROUBLE
These are industries that are ‘economic losers’ that have passed our ‘opportunity
screening’, but pose some serious environmental or social threats.
FORGET
These industries did not emerge as ‘economic winners’ and at the same
time do not appear to be significant based on our ‘opportunity screening’
(export share, employment share, political/cultural sensitivity, etc.).
Hence, these industries should be allowed to gradually make an exit and
do not require much policy attention from government.
and ISIC revision 3
orts of 22 manufacturing
with the harmonized
ing employment
s, waste water and solid waste as outputs
r that face significant strain, other
th (what the country does well, resources
nce of significant strain), and policies
t prominent negative
ues for each environmental and social
ormance improvements that could
ings with experts; it is measured by the
rowth or absolute market scale
een captured within a particular industry
e scale of market opportunity, either as a
ange of given metrics of performance
eg energy availability
roximity to the constraint of that
(The ability of industry X to organize and develop competence/knowledge)
IDENTIFICATION OF LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES
What is Uganda's national industrial policy goal?
UGDDS goal?
A low carbon strategy involves
Data needs
Export competitiveness data
Green Innovation data
Quandrant based classification of the industries based on above two metrices
Revealed Competitive Advantage (RCA) using UN comtratde data
Green Innovation specialization (GIS) (a sectors potential for low carbon conversion)
Low carbon natural endowments
>Production of low carbon
technologies
>Adoption of low carbon
processes
PATSTAT
on conversion)
calculate these over several years
from PATSTAT
Min of energy and mineral develt
hese over several years to avoid anomalous one year data from influencing