American University of Science and Technology Faculty of Business and Economics Approval of the Senior Project Candidates: Nabil Almawi Aline Mourad Degree: Bachelor of Science in Business Economics Title: Hydropower The Value of a Nation The following professor nominated to serve as the advisor of the above candidates has approved this work. Advisor: Dr. Bassam Hamdar Signature: ii Dedication We would like to begin by thanking our beloved university AUST for the constant support and help as well as the encouragement throughout our Bachelor’s. It has surely been a blessed and comfortable 3 years. We would also like to thank our Chairperson Dr. Bassam Hamdar for his time and help from the beginning of our journey at AUST. He has showed interest in every idea and thought we shared and was always available to correct and add his special touch to our work. Moreover, we extend a note of appreciation to Dr. Waleed Akar, a professor in the Economics department, for his valuable presence, comments and suggestions throughout our academic experience. And finally, we would like to dedicate this senior project to our family and friends who have shown encouragement and support as well as our fellow classmates and students at AUST and finally to the new generation hoping this project would leave a mark and interest them in their future evolving lives. iii Page Table of Contents Chapter One Introduction 1 1.1 Overview 1.2 Background on Lebanese Electric Situation 1.3 The National Energy Efficiency Action plan for Lebanon (NEEAP) 1.4 Need for the study 1.5 Problem definition 1.6 Scope of the study Chapter Two Literature Review 1 1 2 6 7 7 9 2.1 Overview 2.2 Introduction to hydropower 2.2.1 History of Hydropower 2.2.2 Types of Hydropower 2.2.3 Sizes of Hydropower Projects 2.2.4 Stages of a Hydropower Projects 2.3 Introduction to economic development 2.3.1 What do we mean by Economic Development 2.3.2 What is Economics 2.4 Energy, Hydropower & Development 2.4.1 What is Energy 2.4.2 Energy & Economic Growth 2.4.3 Job creation opportunities in Hydropower 2.5 Hydropower & the Environment 2.6 The Economics of Electricity 2.6.1 Electricity Market 2.6.2 Levelized cost of Electricity from Hydropower Chapter Three Research Methodology 9 9 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 20 29 3.1 Capital Cost Analysis 3.1.1 Overview 3.1.2 Meaning of Costs. 3.1.3 Types of Costs 3.2 Cash flow Analysis 3.2.1 Perspective of the Total Investment 3.2.2 Perspective of the Investor 3.2.3 Perspective of the Dividends 3.3 Capital Budgeting 3.3.1 Net Present Value 3.3.2 Internal Rate of Return Chapter Four Results and Findings 29 29 29 33 33 33 33 34 34 35 39 41 4.1 Overview 4.2 Data & the Observed Model 4.2.1 Input Variables 41 41 42 iv 4.2.2 Cost Sheet 4.3 Results & Findings 45 49 Chapter Five Conclusions and Recommendations 5.1 Overview 5.2 Conclusion 5.3 Recommendation 5.4 Limitations 5.5 Future Research 54 54 54 55 56 56 References 61 v List of Figures Page Figure 2.1 Four Specific Value Chain Elements 17 Figure 2.2 The Minimum To Average Levelized Cost of Electricity For 22 Small Hydropower In The European Union Figure 2.3 Levelized Cost Of Electricity For Hydropower Plants By Country 23 and Region Figure 2.4 LCOE Pf 2,155 Hydropower Projects Plotted Against Their 24 Cumulative Capacities That Were Evaluated In The U.S Figure 2.5 LCOE Of Small Hydropower Projects In Developing Countries, Broken Down By Source vi 25 List of Tables Page Table 1.1 Results of The Evaluation of NEEAP 2011 – 2015 5 Table 2.1 Sensitivity of LCOE Of Hydropower To Different Discount Rates 26 And Lifetimes Table 2.2 A Study Shows This Wide Range of Possible Economic Values 27 Table 2.3 Economics and Tariffs For New Hydropower Plants In Lebanon 28 Table 3.1 The First 5 Discounted Payments 38 Table 4.1 Cost Model For Hydro Power Plant 2 MW, Input Variables Sheet 42 Table Table 4.2 Discounted Cashflow Analysis Regarding Income, Expenses 45 Table 4.3 Average Cost Per Kwh Over Project Life 47 Table 4.4 Summary results of Micro-hydro cost model 50 vii Abstract Water is the main constituent of Earth's streams, lakes, and oceans, and the fluids of most living organisms. It is vital for all known forms of life. It plays an important role in the world economy. Approximately 70% of the freshwater used by humans goes to agriculture. Large quantities of water, ice, and steam are used for cooling and heating, in industry and homes. It is also widely used in industrial processes. Hydropower or hydroelectricity refers to the conversion of energy from flowing water into electricity. It is considered a renewable energy source because the water cycle is constantly renewed by the sun. Electricity is produced using turbines and generators, where mechanical energy is created when moving water spins rotors on a turbine. This turbine is connected to an electromagnetic generator, which produce electricity when the turbine spins. It is known as the largest contributor of all renewable energy sources and accounts for 6.7% of worldwide electricity production. It is an abundant, low cost source of power and also flexible and reliable source of electricity compared to other renewable options, as it may be stored for use at a later time. Keeping in mind the Lebanese economic and electrical state, implementing hydroelectric power supply would definitely be a solution to the electricity problem and would play a crucial role in economic growth. viii