The Future
of the
Cocoa Industry
Productivity
Standards &
Certification
Consumption
Future
of
cocoa
Ecological
Impact
Trade
Technology
Production and Consumption
World market for cocoa in 1,000 tonnes
Changes in cocoa prices 1980-2012
Volatile cocoa prices
 Cocoa prices are influenced by many factors such as:
 Extreme weather
 Pests and diseases
 Speculation
 Political instability in producing countries
 In 2000 an oversupply of beans saw prices slump to a 27
year low of around $714 a tonne
 In 2011 prices rocketed to a 32 year high of $3,775 a tonne
amid fears of disruption to cocoa supplies following a failed
coup in Cotê d’Ivoire
Volatility of market prices
Income increase needed to escape
from poverty and absolute poverty
Capturing their fair share:
 Even as cocoa prices rise, farmers have not been
capturing their fair share
 Growers in West Africa are likely to receive just 3.5% to
6.4% of the final value of a chocolate bar, depending on
the percentage of cocoa content (this is a drop from
16% in the late 1980s)
 Manufacturers on the other hand have increased their
share of profits from 56% to 70%
 Retailers have increased their share from 12% to17%
Income effects of yield increase
Potential decline in workforce 2012-2030
Abandoning the industry:
 Failure to capture sufficient value from their crops
means that many farmers are leaving the industry
 Many of their children see no future in cocoa
 More profitable industry in rubber plantations
 Or they are heading to cities in the hope of finding a
better livelihood
Ecological Impacts
“The effect on living organisms and their non-living (abiotic)
environment due to human activity or natural phenomenon”
• Significant environmental impacts
• Use of children in cocoa production
Critical Issues
Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: a
comparison
Production and growth projections of
certified cocoa by Standards Bodies
Fate of certified cocoa in 2011
The future of chocolate
 Today the global chocolate confectionary market is worth
an astounding $102.3 billion according to Euromonitor
International
 In 2012 it was estimated that in about 7 years (that’s
2019) we’ll need another million tons of cacao beans in
order to fulfil consumer desire – that’s equivalent to
another Ivory Coast!!!
Plagues attacking cacao:
 Big agriculture
 Climate change
 Crop rotation
 Deforestation
 Cacao’s susceptibility to disease
 Child labour
 Dollar signs
 Age of farmers
A solution: genetic research
 Main players= Mars and Hershey
 Most of the genetic research is centred on improved
breeding practices, disease resistance, productivity,
genetic identification of the beans and flavour
 Further work is needed to decipher the genome to
possibly modify it for pesticide resistance, flavour
enhancement, longer survival etc
 Molecular biology may be used to improve yields and
create cocoa varieties more resistant to diseases.