MANAGING EMERGING
TECHNOLOGY
BY DR. WAN MOHD BUKHARI BIN WAN DAUD
EMERGING TECHNOLOGY DEFINITION
• Emerging technology is a term generally used to describe a
new technology, but it may also refer to the continuing development of an
existing technology; it can have slightly different meaning when used in
different areas, such as media, business, science, or education.
OR
• Emerging technologies include a variety of technologies such as educational
technology, information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology,
cognitive science, psychotechnology, robotics, and artificial intelligence.
1. TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
Here are eight technology trends you should watch for in 2020,
and some of the jobs that will be created by these trends.
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) ...
Machine Learning. ...
Robotic Process Automation or RPA. ...
Edge Computing. ...
Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality. ...
Blockchain. ...
Internet of Things (IoT) ...
Cybersecurity.
WHAT ARE THESE TRENDS MEANS FOR US?
Breakout moment of artificial intelligence (AI) in manufacturing
Practical deployment of Internet of Things (IoT)
Increased demand for edge computing processing power
Commercialization of quantum computing usage in mass scale
Evolution of aerospace technologies
New era of the internet — deployment of 5G and Starlink broadband
internet technology
• Evolution of health care — predictions at the genome level
• Evolution in Agriculture – technology to Grow Crops Efficiently
• Evolution of autonomous driving technology
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THE POTENTIAL RISK OF THE EMERGING
TECHNOLOGY
• is any potential for technology failures to disrupt your business
such as information security incidents or service outages. ... A
security incident results in theft of customer data resulting in
legal liability, reputational damage and compliance issues.
SO, HOW DO WE MANAGE THIS RISK?
As the pace of change accelerates, embracing digital transformation
becomes more vital. But without the right risk management
framework, you can do more harm than good!!
• The technology cannot be suitably
understood until the technology further
develops…
• Therefore, what should we do to manage
this emerging technology??
MANAGING THE TRENDS OF EMERGING
TECHNOLOGY
• Trends in technology development
-the S-Curve theory • …illustrates introduction, growth, and
maturation of technology…
S-CURVE THEORY
• THE TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE
Comparison between technologies
• …has strongly related to the product life cycle…
PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE CHART
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
• Invention is the development
of a new idea that has useful
applications.
Invention
Technology
change…
Innovation
• Innovation is a more complex
term, referring to how an
invention is brought into
commercial usage.
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
Innovators
Laggards
Late
Majority
Early
Adopters
Early
Majority
• Diffusion in technological innovation
An innovation will spread quickly if it
• Has a great advantage over its predecessor
• Is compatible with existing systems, procedures,
infrastructures, and ways of thinking
• Has less rather than greater complexity
• Can be tried and tested easily without significant cost
or commitment
• Can be observed and copied easily
2. Forecasting and Planning for Technological
Changes
DEFINITION
• …as a prediction, with a level of confidence
of a technological achievement in a given
time frame with a specified level of
support…
(Cetron, 1969)
PURPOSES
• Identify & evaluate new technology-based product
• Provide information for better technology investment decisions
and
• projecting technology advances.
• Define market needs for new technologies.
• Project market adoption rates for new technologies.
• Identify critical technologies and gaps.
• Formulate strategic model for future development.
INPUTS
- Assumptions
FORECASTING
TECHNIQUES
- Data
- Insight
- Normative
- Judgment
- Explorative
OUTPUTS
- Qualitative
- Quantitative
- Time
- Probability
WHY WE NEED TO FORECAST TECHNOLOGY
CHANGES
The rapid change of most organizations’ environment
Global
competitiveness
TABLET BATTLE BETWEEN APPLE & SAMSUNG
FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
Technology
Forecasting
Normative
History
(Relevance
Tree)
Mission Flow
Diagram
Explorative
Morphological
Analysis
Delphi
Trend
Analysis
Growth
Curves
A – Relevance Tree
…a model based on a detailed hierarchy of
methods of achieving a specific set of goals.
…is one method of mapping out
contingencies,
• prerequisites,and alternatives.
B- Mission Flow Diagram
• …similar in many respects to decision trees.
• …a decision tree maps
out possible
• contingencies resulting from decisions
taken in some sequential order.
• TECHNIQUE FOR MISSION FLOW
C – Morphological Analysis
• …a systematic procedure for collecting,
counting, indexing,and identifying all
possible alternatives to achieve some
technological capability.
D – Delphi
• …is based on a structured process for
collecting and distilling knowledge from
a group of experts by means of a
series of questionnaires interspersed
with controlled opinion feedback.
Ten (10) steps for the Delphi method:
1) Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given
subject.
2) Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise.
Customarily, the panels are experts in the area to be investigated.
3) Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire.
4) Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities,
vagueness)
5) Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panels.
6) Analysis of the first round responses.
7) Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible
testing)
8) Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panels.
9) Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are
reiterated as long as desired or necessary to achieve stability in the
results.)
10) Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the
conclusions of the exercise
E –Trend Analysis
Trends are often shown graphically (as line graphs) with
the level of a dependent variable n the y-axis and the
time period on the x-axis. There are different "levels" of
trends:
• constant
• linear
• exponential
• damped
F – Growth Curves
• …to predict the advance of some technology.
• …growth tends to be the cumulative result of a large number of
separate accretions or advances.
• …there are often considerable difficulties to be overcome at the
outset,causing the growth to be slow.
• …once these difficulties are overcome,the stage is set for rapid
growth,until some limit is encountered.
CONCLUSION
• The ability of a firm to evolve a technology strategy depends on its
understanding of the process and dynamics of technological change
and diffusion; identifying the objectives of the technology
forecast; and selection of the right technological forecasting
technique. The objective of technology strategy is to identify
technological opportunities (for acquisition and/or exploitation) in
the context of its internal resources/competences and availability
of market growth avenues.
Factors Affecting Forecasting
•Two categories:
a) environment factors
b) personal factors
a) Environment Factors
Technological
Political
Environment
factors
Economical
Social
Ecological
Culture
1-Technological
• unpredictable
competitive
circumstances.
• fail to look at all the
stages of innovation.
• Look only the
technology area they
have concerned.
2- Political
• - death, retirement,
transfer or loss of
election.
-Two aspects:
• Domestic factors –
government control on
research,budgeting for at
least 10years.
• Foreign factors - growing
nationalism & interaction
of trade/political zones.
3- Economical
i - Effects of domestic
trends
-diversification pressures
ii- Effects of international
trends
-expanding industrialisation
4-Social
Inverted bell
shape
Social
-continuous use
concepts
Globe shape
-limited use
5- Ecological
…impact the growing
development of technology.
…environmental
sustainability.
…change in level of demand,
interest, support, and a
consequence arising from an
interaction of several
technologies.
6- Cultural
…changes in values
…slowly and
cumulatively
b) Personal Factors
Narrow focus --- lack of training
Rigid interest --- reward system
Excessive optimism
Time horizon
Lack of imagination
Neglect of constraint
3. Technology Road Map
DEFINITION OF ROADMAP
• A technology roadmap is a display, document, or
diagram that illustrates the technology adoption
plan at a given organization.
OR
• is a plan that matches short-term and longterm goals with specific technology solutions to
help meet those goals.
• Technology roadmaps are created to help business
leaders plan and strategize which, when, and why
certain technologies will be onboarded while avoiding
expensive mistakes and even planning for technologies
becoming obsolete.
• An effective technology roadmap should also outline a
strategy to reach short- and long-term digital
transformation goals, if applicable
EXAMPLE OF TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
THE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING
TWO categories:
IT systems roadmaps
and
technology roadmaps.
IT systems roadmap
• An IT systems roadmap is a diagram or model designed to set the
parameters that enable key functioning across the business or
organization. An effective IT roadmap will lay out current IT
capabilities, projected IT needs, and any improvements you plan
to make to execute against your business strategy.
• Generally, IT roadmaps are meant to communicate plans about the
major systems that keep your business running. These systems
include, but are not limited to, customer relationship
management systems (CRM), enterprise resource planning systems
(ERP), data analytics systems, identity management systems,
cybersecurity systems, and more.
Technology roadmap
• A technology roadmap illustrates the technology presently available and
emphasizes scheduled improvements. A technology roadmap should also
consider which technologies will become obsolete or are scheduled for
end of life. For example, a work management software system will show
when the previous system will sunset and when the new one will be
implemented.
• As organizations lay out their strategy and implementation to help
execute on their vision, a technology roadmap will help them determine
which technologies to invest in and how to implement them. Technology
roadmaps should enable technological infrastructure improvements to
meet both long-term and short-term targets of the business or
organization in mind.
Steps in the preliminary phase:
satisfy
essential
conditions
Inputs &
participation
from other
parts of
organisation
Provide
leadership
Resources
allocation
Define
scope &
boundries
Support the
company
vision
Development of roadmap – phase 1
Identify the focus product
Identify the critical system requirement
Specify the major technology area
Specify the technology drivers & their
targets
Development of roadmap– phase 2
Identify the technology timelines
Recommend alternative technology
Create the technology roadmap report
Key components of a technology road map
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Goals
New system capabilities
Release plans
Milestone
Resources
Training
Risks factor
Status reports
Conclusions
• Technology roadmaps are a valuable tool for any
business that relies on technological systems in
their daily operations. Ultimately, its purpose is
to align your key stakeholders by creating a clear
course of action.
END OF CHAPTER 6