SWINBURNE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
FACULTY OF SCIENCE, ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY
Swinburne course in which you are enrolled: MASTER OF
ENGINEERING SCIENCE (CIVIL ENGINEERING)
ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET
NAME
HEMALKUMAR NANJI BHUDIA
ID NUMBER
102868404
SUBJECT CODE
CVE80003
SUBJECT TITLE
TRANSPORT PLANNING, MODELLING AND ECONOMICS
ASSIGNMENT No & Title
3: TRANSPORT MODELLING FINAL ASSIGNMENT
DUE DATE
26/06/2020
DATE submitted BY
STUDENT
26/06/2020
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DETAILS
e-mail: 102868404@student.swin.edu. au
PHONE: 0404 424 451
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Student’s Statement
I certify that I have not plagiarised the work of others or received undue assistance in the preparation of this assignment.
Student Name & Signature: HEMALKUMAR NANJI BHUDIA
Date 26/06/2020
Table of Content
INTRODUCTION: ............................................................................................................................. 1
QUESTION 1:.................................................................................................................................. 2
A) .............................................................................................................................................................................................2
B) .............................................................................................................................................................................................2
C) .............................................................................................................................................................................................3
D) .............................................................................................................................................................................................4
E)..............................................................................................................................................................................................4
QUESTION 2:.................................................................................................................................. 5
A) .............................................................................................................................................................................................5
B) .............................................................................................................................................................................................6
QUESTION 3:.................................................................................................................................. 8
A) .............................................................................................................................................................................................8
B) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
C) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
D) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
REFERENCES: ............................................................................................................................... 12
List of figures:
FIGURE 1: SIMPLE MODEL ..............................................................................................................................................................2
FIGURE 2: GRAPH REPRESENTING SIMPLE MODEL ...........................................................................................................................3
FIGURE 3: GRAPH OF TABULATED VS ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN 2051 .........................................................................................4
FIGURE 4: TOLL DIVERSION CURVES................................................................................................................................................5
FIGURE 5: MODE SHARE BY MODELLED TIME PERIOD......................................................................................................................6
FIGURE 6: DIFFERENCE IN DAILY METROPOLITAN RAIL AND SMART BUS PASSENGER L OADS, 2036...................................................7
FIGURE 7:DAILY AND AM PEAK CAR MODE SHARE, 2036 ..............................................................................................................8
Introduction:
A transportation model is a mathematical representation of the system of transportation. It
provides the technical means for development and procedures to estimate transport strategies.
It is used to estimate current scenario and to project the effects and needs in future.
This assignment consists of transport modelling components that refer to Appendix R of the
North East Link Project Business Case (February 2018). Melbourne has a vast freeway
network that has a missing link through the north east suburbs between the Metropolitan Ring
Road and the Eastern Freeway. Victorian government committed to build that missing link in
2016 and named it as North East Link.
This assignment depicts the information regarding the North East Link such as data used for
transport modelling, choices of modes and destinations and the analysis of the flow of traffic.
1
Question 1:
a)
To create a simple model, we have data for population and employment for t he year 2016.
So, plotting a graph of population (in X-axis) and employment (in Y-axis) we get a trendline
whose equation is y = 0.1854x + 48656 which is the required simple model.
Simple Model
y = 0.1854x + 48656
R² = 0.0113
600,000
Employment in 2016
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Population in 2016
Figure 1: Simple Model
2
300,000
350,000
b)
Simple Model
y = 0.1854x + 48656
R² = 0.0113
600,000
Employment in 2016
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Population in 2016
Figure 2: Graph Representing Simple Model
The above scatter graph is plotted using the data of 2016 as employment in Y-axis and
population in X-axis. Also included the trendline and evaluated the simple model getting the
slope of 0.1854 and the intercept of 48656.
c)
In this data, Melbourne(C) has the highest employment record of 503,672 and Casey(C) has
the highest population record of 300,169 in the year 2016. Due to higher values, it differs a
lot from the trendline. Hence these data points are the greatest outliers in this data.
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d)
The data of population of year 2051 as the value of ‘x’ were substituted in the equation y =
0.1854x + 48656, to get the estimate of employment in 2051. Taking the tabulated data of
employment in 2051 (in Y-axis) and the estimated employment data in 2051 (in X-axis) a
scattered graph is plotted as shown below.
Tabulated vs Estimated Employment in 2051
y = 1.4802x - 4759.2
R² = 0.0298
Tabulated Employment in 2051
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Estimated Employment in 2051
Figure 3: Graph of Tabulated vs Estimated Employment in 2051
e)
A pandemic such as COVID-19 is very severe disease. Due to COVID-19, in order to
maintain social distancing almost all businesses were shut down globally. Many people
became jobless. And some of the jobs were maintained from home. Also COVID-19 is a
disease that caused many deaths. Hence, COVID-19 can cause a drastic change in the model.
Number of employments were drop down and many people were died causing reduction in
population.
In order to maintain social distancing, people will try to stay at home to avoid getting in touch
with disease. This will cause reduction in overall travel demand. The demand for public
4
transportation will reduce drastically. As compared to public transport, private transportation
will be preferred more. But still overall travel demand will be reduced.
Question 2:
a)
Logit model is used for forecasting in transportation in various forms. It can investigate the
relationship between binary or ordinal response probability and explanatory variables. Logit
curves continuously increases with advantages or attractiveness, but a toll paid is a
disadvantage in terms of cost, so the logit curve would decrease with toll. In figure 4, the
probability of using toll roads by company car, non-company car and airport cars has been
forecasted. And the toll users are decreasing as the price of toll increases, as higher the price
of toll the fewer people would use it. Hence, we can say that it is an example of logit curve.
Figure 4: Toll Diversion Curves
To calibrate this curve, the probability of using toll road was examined in opposition to the
amount of the toll diversion curve used by company cars, non-company cars and airport cars.
5,000 revealed preference interviews were undertaken in Melbourne to d erive toll diversion
curves used in making this figure. Depending upon advantages of tolled route against non-toll
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route options, all the trips were divided into toll payers and non-toll payers and then routes
chosen by toll payers were divided over the options for toll routes based on its benefits.
b)
Figure 5 indicates the forecast changes in different modes of transport during several time
periods of day over a period of 2016 to 2051. The current 8% of share for public transport of
daily trips is expected to increment to 14% in 2051. This seems to change in proportion of
public transport share for merchandised trips from 9% to 16%. The proportion of walking or
cycling trips are predicted to remain same until 2051 near around 14% across the day.
The public transport share of trips is expected to increase in each of the time periods with
expectation of higher growth in peak periods. The share of public transport trips outside the
peak periods remain at a little more than half that in the peak periods.
Figure 5: Mode Share by Modelled time Period
The continued superiority of the car mode share is also highlighted in the figure that is
expected to continue in future when 2.5 times the number of combined trips of active and
public transport trips could be made by cars.
6
Figure 6 indicates the changes that are expected in passenger loads of daily rail and smart bus
expected in 2036 at a range of locations, due to the NEL project. The travel speeds for smart
bus routes 905, 906, 907, and 908 will be improved by NEL project’s Doncaster busway
component along the Eastern Freeway west of Doncaster road attracting higher funding.
Approximately 12% increase is expected in the daily passengers loads on these routes
approaching the CBD in 2036 project model. Due to a combination of NEL and Doncaster
busway projects, there is expectation of slight reduction (-1% to -2%) in inner-city passenger
loads for Camberwell, South Morang, and Hurstbridge corridors.
Figure 6: Difference in Daily Metropolitan Rail and Smart Bus Passenger Loads, 2036
The car mode share has been charted separately for the 2036 project and no project scenarios
as shown in Figure 7. AM peak and daily car mode share plots are presented in the figure.
7
Overall, no material change appears to be expected for car mode share as a result of the
project.
Figure 7:Daily and AM Peak Car Mode Share, 2036
Question 3:
a)
The key purpose of conducting sensitivity analysis is to analyse how particular uncertainties
and variables will impact the project indicate the sensitivity of model to uncertainties in the
input values of the model. It helps in making appropriate decisions. It is used to predict the
outcome of a decision if a situation turns out to be different from that compared to key
predictions. We can assess risks of a strategy. It also identifies the dependency of output on a
specific input value.
Firstly, the base case output is defined, the net present value at a base case input value for
which the sensitivity is to be measured. All other inputs of model are kept constant. Then
value of the output at a new value of input while keeping other inputs constant is calculated.
Percentage change in the output and input is calculated. The sensitivity is calculated by
dividing output percentage change and input percentage change.
8
The modellers carried out a series of sensitivity tests to evaluate the potential risks and
uncertainties associated with the forecasts of demand on the NEL. These tests included the
following,
Alternative futures
•
Base project case.
•
High land use scenario (approximately 13% of population and employment).
•
Low land use scenario (population and employment approx. -10%).
•
Autonomous vehicles Infrastructure Victoria scenario (including +60% capacity to
freeways and +15% to arterials).
Changes in travel costs and perception
•
Price of fuel (Reference Case assumption).
•
CBD and inner parking charges (10-year lag in growth).
•
Travel time savings values were halved.
Changes in model run methodology
•
Single distribution approach.
•
Single distribution approach with 10-year cost skim lag.
•
Loop though distribution approach (Zenith speed-flow curves).
•
Loop though distribution approach (VITM speed-flow curves).
•
“Fixed” base case matrix assignment model run.
Changes in base case infrastructure & assumptions
•
E6 project.
•
Hume Freeway widening.
•
Melbourne Metro 2 and Doncaster Rail.
•
Airport passengers (10-year lag in growth).
•
Port growth (10-year lag in growth).
Components of the project
•
±20% toll price.
•
Untolled North East Link.
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They found the traffic volume are most sensitive to toll price and the autonomous vehicles
scenario.
b)
The purpose of conducting the validation test is to provide the confidence that the model is
accurately representing current conditions in traffic and toll road patronage, and can be relied
upon to respond to cost and other changes in assumptions in a reasonable way. It is also used
to see how the modelled results vary according to the actual data observed and if the
modelled results can be presented perfectly within the business case scenario and to work
with the same result
North East Link corridor traffic validation, City Link validation and NEL train validation
tests were conducted.
The general findings were that data presented by the observational calculations are similar to
the modelled data.
c)
Network changes are described below.
•
Figure 3.1 to figure 3.3 of appendix R, attachment C of NEL project report shows the
road network changes between 2016 to 2051 modelled years. These road network
assumptions include many road upgrades however they have been created for
transport modelling and planning purposes, and do not necessarily represent future
commitments regarding capital spending or infrastructure works.
•
The public transport service plans details are outlined in Table 3-2 of appendix R,
attachment C of North East Link project report. The public transport rail
specifications were provided by PTV and are consistent with the Metro Tunnel
Business Case, detailing a listing of the proposed upgrades to the public transport
system including the Melbourne Metro (MM) project. These have been incorporated
into the Zenith model base cases.
•
Key projects in the base case includes following.
▪
CTW (M1 to Melbourne Airport) in 2026
▪
M80 was upgraded in 2026 (M1 to Greensborough highway)
10
•
▪
West gate tunnel in 2026
▪
Monash freeway upgradation in 2026
▪
Aitken Boulevard (E14) in 2036
▪
Outer Metropolitan Ring (OMR) Road in 2051
Key projects excluded from the future base cases are
▪
North East Link (i.e. the Project)
▪
Craigieburn Bypass widening
▪
East Link widening
▪
Williamsons Road / Fitzsimons Lane widening
▪
East West Link – Western Section (West Link) and Eastern Section
The non-network changes are described as below.
•
Vehicle is the total actual costs of operating a vehicle with taking into consideration
the fuel prices, vehicle efficiency and maintenance, insurance, and registration costs.
Out of these, most perceived costs of travel are formed by fuel costs and are key
variable of Zenith transport model.
•
Over a period of five years of time the parking cost has increased to 2.4% from 2011
to 2016. From 2016 onwards the charges applied to trips arriving in the AM peak and
other periods started reducing and depicts 1.2% at last in the period of 2046 to 2051.
•
According to reference case document of DEDJTR, the public transport fares were
increased by state government by 5% CAGR greater than CPI for 2012 and 2013 and
by 2.5% CAGR for four years between 2015 and 2018.
d)
The use of graphs, maps and charts greatly impact the users in terms of understanding the
concept. It plays an important role towards depicting and conveying the information. Many
examples have been used in chapter 5 and 6 where the consultants have used various visual
aids to properly depict the information to the readers.
11
References:
•
Appendix R: Transport Modelling Report of North East Link Project Business Case.
<NEL-Business-Case-Appendix-R_Transport Modelling Report.pdf >
•
Government
Website
of
North
<http://www.northeastlink.vic.gov.au >
12
East
Link
Project
Business
Case.