Ranking the Listed Indian Engineering Companies based on Financial Performance of via Factor analysis Study conducted by Mahua Adak Mandal Email Id: mahuaadak@gmail.com The fruits of liberalization reached their peak in 2007, with India recording its highest GDP growth rate of 9% With this, India became the second fastest growing major economy in the world, next only to China. Thus the industrial sector playing an important role in economic development. Engineering is the largest segment of the overall Indian industrial sector. All types of engineering companies like that of chemical engineering, civil mechanical, auto engineering, design & manufacturing service, casting forgings etc. plays important role in the growth of an economy contributing to GDP and generating employment opportunities. The Engineering industry sector recorded a growth of 9.2% (measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production) during the period April- Nov. 2007-08 over and above the growth of 11.6 % achieved in 200607. The engineering industry is the largest segment of the overall Indian industry. Thus it becomes imperative to study such sector and how it’s performing. Rapid economic growth in India has significantly increased demand for engineering goods. The focus of this research is to find out different dimensions or factors which contribute to efficient financial performance in engineering companies based on different financial ratios and develop an empirical model for ranking them, based on overall financial performance. The arguments of (Brief & Lawson, 1992; and Peasnell, 1996), in their study indicated that accounting-based measures of financial performance are a sufficient predictor of a firm’s returns and market-based valuation. Therefore accounting based measures like financial ratios were carefully chosen through extensive review of relevant literature. Appropriate financial ratio like that of current ratio, networking capital ratio, operating ratio, net profit ratio, earning per share, return on equity (ROE), ROCE (Return on capital employed), fixed asset ratio, Net sales / capital employed ratio, stock turnover, debt equity ratio, proprietary ratio etc. as variables for determining the factors influencing the financial performance. Initially 20 financial ratios were considered as variables for the study. But latter, due to multicollinearity, high level of correlation between these variables, only 12 financial ratios were retained and are considered for factor analysis. All data is extracted from the annual report of the companies, 62 NSE & BSE listed engineering are taken into consideration for the study. The study is also objected to do methodological contribution & development of approach in quantifying, measuring and rating the firm’s performance. Table 1: List of variables, which is financial ratios. S.No. Ratios 1 Current ratio= {Current asset/ Current liabilities}= CA/ CL 2 Networking capital ratio = {Net working capital / Net sales} 3 Operating ratio = {Operating cost/ Net sales} 4 Net profit ratio = (Net profit / Sales) * 100 5 Earning Share = {Reported net profit/ Shares in issue(in Lakhs)} 6 Return on equity = {Equity Dividend / Shares in issue(in Lakhs)}* 100 7 ROCE(Return on capital employed) = {(PBDIT -- Depreciation) / (Total liabilities – Investment)} 8 Fixed asset ratio = {Fixed asset/ (shareholder fund + long term fund)} 9 (Net sales / Capital employed) 10 Stock turnover = (Net sales – Operating profit) /{( Opening stock(Inventory) + Closing stock(Inventory) – Stock Adjustments)/ 2} 11 Debt equity ratio = {Long term debt/ Net worth} 12 Proprietary Ratio = (Shareholders fund/ Tangible asset) PBDIT- Profit before depreciation interest taxes. Several types of financial ratios are taken as variables, as described above. The study uses multivariate data analysis technique known as factor analysis, for the purpose of arriving at the dimensions of financial performance. It is a correlation technique, where there is no distinction between dependent and independent variables. The correlation is one of the most common and most useful statistics. A correlation is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two or more variables. Factor analysis is a correlational technique to determine meaningful clusters of shared variance. It begins with a large number of variables and then tries to reduce the interrelationships amongst the variables to a few numbers of clusters or factors. The financial tools used for this study is ratio analysis and statistical tools used is factor analysis and statistical softwares use is Microsoft Excel and SPSS version 16 for Windows for determining the measures of financial performance. The ratio analysis is one of the most powerful tools of financial analysis & to find out the financial performance of engineering companies in midst of financial crunch and downtrend in India and globally. It is used as a device to analyze and interpret the financial health of enterprise. Reducing dimensionality of a set of financial ratios centers around developing some sort of structure or grouping system for the ratios. A simple grouping system, such as those employed by introductory finance texts, can be used to provide some structure to a financial ratio set. Analyzing empirical relationships among financial ratios could be performed through correlation analysis. If two ratios are highly correlated, then the user could consider one of the pair to be redundant, discarding it with little loss of information. If two ratios are not highly correlated, then the user could consider each to measure a different aspect of firm performance. Highly correlated ratios could be brought together into groups, where the groups would each measure some different aspect of firm performance. In this way, the user could understand the relationships and patterns among the financial ratios in a variable set. By uncovering the number of homogeneous groups of ratios in a variable set, the size of the variable set could be reduced from the number of original variables or ratios to the number of homogeneous groups. Instead of the user performing the groupings according to the correlation coefficients, the grouping procedure could be performed via factor analysis. Factor analysis takes a correlation matrix (or covariance matrix) among original variables as input and constructs new variables where the number of new variables (called factors) to be retained is smaller than the number of variables in the original data set. If the correlation coefficient between one of the original variables and a factor is close to unity then that original variable can be used to represent the factor. In this manner, a large set of variables can be reduced to a much smaller set, where the smaller set of variables is then used for some predictive, explanatory, or descriptive purpose. Table 2: Correlation matrix The data for the empirical analysis were drawn from the financial statements of 62 light and heavy stock exchange listed engineering companies. The use of financial ratios (indicators) is an accepted procedure in evaluating the performance (success) of firms. Table 3: KMO and Bartlett test of Sphericity produces Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling adequacy and Barlett’s test. KMO and Bartlett's Test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square df Sig. .540 362.231 66 .000 Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy generally indicates whether or not the variables are able to be grouped into a smaller set of underlying factors. High values (close to 1.0) generally indicate that a factor analysis may be useful with your data. If the value is less than .50, the results of the factor analysis probably won't be very useful. So the value of KMO should be greater than 0.5 if the sample be adequate, as indicated by the above KMO and Barlett’s test table, the KMO for this study is 0.540, which is adequate indicating clearly that the data support the use of factor analysis and suggest that the data may be grouped into a smaller set of underlying factors. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure of sampling adequacy is an index for comparing the magnitudes of the observed correlation coefficients to the magnitudes of the partial correlation coefficients. Another indicator of the strength of the relationship among variables is Bartlett's test of sphericity. Bartlett's Test of Sphericity compares correlation matrix to an identity matrix. An identity matrix is a correlation matrix with 1.0 on the principal diagonal and zeros in all other correlations. The correlation (R) matrix represents the relationships between all items and is a complete matrix with 1.0 on the diagonal. The 1.0 indicates the perfect relationship the variable has with itself. The upper and lower elements of the matrix are mirror images. R is population correlation matrix. I is Identity matrix, in Identity matrix diagonals are 1, and rest all 0, so its 12 X 12 identity matrix. Variables are uncorrected with each other. Bartlett value to be significant as we’re expecting relationships between variables. H0: R = I H1: R not equal I Since significance value is less 0.05, reject the null hypothesis H0: R = I i.e reject H0 .000<0.05, so population correlation matrix is not Identity matrix, therefore variables are correlated. Bartlett's test of sphericity is used to test the null hypothesis that the variables in the population correlation matrix are uncorrelated. The observed significance level is .0000. It is small enough to reject the hypothesis. It is concluded that the strength of the relationship among variables is strong. It is a good idea to proceed a factor analysis for the data. Determinant of R matrix, vital for testing multicollinearity. Determinant of should be (greater than)> 0.00001. So here as per given data set of engineering companies, Determinant of population correlation matrix is .002 Which satisfies one assumption of factor analysis, i.e is absence of multicollinearity. Principle component analysis attempts to account for the inter-correlation among the observed variables in terms of a much smaller number of hypothetical variates or factors. The procedure isolates a minimum number of independent (orthogonal) factors that explain most of the variation retains the maximum amount of information-contained in the original set of variables. The similarity of each variable with each of the empirically derived factors is indicted by that variable’s factor loading, which is simply the correlation between the original variable and the particular factor. Since the financial ratio groups should possess high internal (within group) homogeneity and high external (between group) heterogeneity, each financial ratio should have a high factor loadings on at most one factor (Pinches, Eubank, Mingo and Caruthers, 1975). The subset data set could contain as many factors as there are variables in the original data set. The researcher, however, will only want to employ those factors that contribute substantially to explaining variation in the original data set. For purposes of this study, factors with eigen values greater than one are selected to represent the original data set. Other factors are discarded. Table 4: Total variance Explained Total Variance Explained Component 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Initial Eigenvalues Total % of Variance Cumulative % 3.074 25.617 25.617 2.278 18.980 44.598 1.524 12.699 57.297 1.313 10.942 68.239 1.103 9.195 77.434 .872 7.268 84.702 .671 5.593 90.295 .537 4.472 94.767 .300 2.499 97.266 .142 1.181 98.447 .125 1.042 99.489 .061 .511 100.000 Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Total % of Variance Cumulative % 3.074 25.617 25.617 2.278 18.980 44.598 1.524 12.699 57.297 1.313 10.942 68.239 1.103 9.195 77.434 Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings Total % of Variance Cumulative % 2.699 22.489 22.489 1.916 15.964 38.453 1.795 14.960 53.414 1.470 12.249 65.662 1.413 11.771 77.434 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Factor analysis of 12 ratios across the heavy and light engineering companies for 2008 resulted in the identification of five groups or categories of financial ratios, which is termed as five dimensions of performance. The number of factors extracted in each component solution was determined by requiring that the unrotated eigenvalues of each factor exceed 1.00 and that the factor make a non trivial (insignificant) contribution (in excess of 5 %) in explaining the common variance among the financial ratios, and by inspecting all results for discontinuities. Table 4 indicates total variance explained, rotation sums of square loadings column shows % of variance explained by factor 1 is attributed to 22.489 %, factor 2 is attributed to 15.964 %, factor 3 is attributed to 14.960 %, factor 4 is attributed to 12.249 and factor 5 is attributed to 11.771. Almost 77% of the common variation among the financial ratios is accounted by these five categories which is descriptively labeled as: short term liquidity, returns to equity holders / profitability, assets utilization and returns, sales and long term funds or solvency. The labels employed for the categories are intended to represent. Table 5 Current and Previous Researches using factor analysis using ratios Data Reduction in Factor Analyzed Financial Ratio Space Variable Factor % Reduction % Variation Still S. No.Study Space Space In Space Explained 1 Pinches and Mingo (1973) 35 7 80 63 Pinches, Mingo, and Caruthers 2 (1973) 48 7 85 91, 92, 87, 92 3 Stevens (1973) 20 6 70 82 Libby (1975) Not Reported 4 14 5 64 Pinches, Eubank, Mingo, and 5 Caruthers(1 975) 48 7 85 92 Current study 12 5 59 77 Literature review shows various studies were conducted by Pinches and Mingo (1973), Pinches, Mingo, and Caruthers (1973), Stevens (1973), Libby (1975) and Pinches, Eubank, Mingo, and Caruthers(1 975) during 1970s specifically using factor analytic approach and reported the above findings, displayed in table 5. Similarly the current study leads to reduction in the variable space to 5 from 12, which is 59% reduction in space and the table 5 shows 77% of the common variation among the variables (financial ratios) is accounted by these 5 factors. Developing Financial Ratio Patterns Table 6: Component which gives financial performance of engineering companies Dimensions of financial performance Component 1: Short term liquidity- Rotated component Matrix showed that there exists inverse relationship between liquidity and sales volume. As the liquidity increases it lead to increase in working capital, which is eroded away due to high input cost, so be liquidity situation is tighten further, resulting decrease in net profit. Whereas increase in operating cost resulting decrease in net profit. Thus high cost resulting in decrease in net profit. Raw material prices fluctuate more violently than those of finished goods; wholesale prices than retail Prices; prices of staples tend to fluctuate less violently than the prices of luxuries; and the prices of branded goods less than those of bulk goods. Inventory of goods hedged by the sale of futures on a speculative market or by customers' orders for future delivery are better protected than that carried to meet an anticipated demand (Hardy and Meech, 1925). Usually current ratio indicates the firm’s ability to meet short-term obligations. The current ratio represents a "benchmark" in the finance literature for measuring the company's ability to meet maturing obligations. When we say that an expansion of sales requires matching assets to support it, for a going concern which has already gone on stream, this dominantly means the current assets because fixed assets like plant and machinery, etc, have already been installed with a designated capacity and these are not going to change within a reasonably long period. However, a minimum amount of capital expenditure many have to be continuously committed for proper upkeep of the existing technological structure of the enterprise (Bhattacharya, 1992). Commonly used measure of financial performance is cash flow (Gombole and Ketz, 1983). Cash flow is a more reliable measure of any organization's financial viability than net income because it is based on cash, not accrual, basis of accounting. As described in Walker and Petty (1978) research, large corporations have more liquidity, as reflected by the current ratio. This conclusion is cited in their work, is consistent with Gupta (1969) findings, in which the current and quick ratios were seen to increase as the firm size becomes larger. In addition, this difference would not appear to be the impact of any single factor. With respect to profitability, small firms are more profitable than large corporations, because of higher profit margins and more efficient management of fixed assets. Ability to produce greater earnings on the sales and more efficient utilization of fixed assets in carrying out the operation represent the two distinguishing elements. Component 2: Returns to equity holders / Profitability Return on equity is calculated as net income available to common stockholders divided by common equity. This most important ‘bottom line’ accounting ratio measured as ratio pf net income to common equity. Positive relationship between earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE). As the earnings per share increase it leads to increase in earnings. As the earning increases, funds are utilized for paying out more dividends to shareholders. Shareholders usually invest to get a return on their invested money and ROE reflects it. Firm performance is said to be a function of owner or manager control plus additional factors or variables. Return on equity or return to the equity holders, theoretically, measures the owner's (stock-holder's) return on investment (McKean and Kania, 1978). For purposes of determining profitability, items in the income statement to other items in the income statement (for example, net income to sales) or to items in the balance sheet (net income to owners' equity) are taken into consideration (Lasman & Weil, 1978). Cleverley (1990) utilized return on equity (ROE), defined as the ratio of net income to equity, as an overall financial performance measure. He pointed out that ROE is affected by four financial ratios: operating margin (operating income/operating revenue); total asset turnover (operating revenue/total assets); nonoperating revenue (non-operating revenue/net income); and equity financing (fund balance/total assets). Cleverley asserted that high ROE firms generate funds through the combined effects of asset utilization, profit margin, non-operating income, and debt capacity. Using similar methods as Cleverley, Coyne (1986) evaluated the financial performance of multi-hospital systems. Using equity growth or return on equity as the overall performance measure, Coyne noted that leverage and profitability are the primary ratios affecting this measure. Component 3: Assets Utilization and returns There exist positive relationship between fixed asset and working capital. As engineering companies invest in fixed asset like plant, machinery, land and building etc. the return from such investment tend to increase. The assets of a firm also have a natural categorization based on liquidity. Cash or cash like (marketable) securities are liquid assets. Long-term investments (such as plant and machinery) which may only produce liquid assets in the future may be called "illiquid" assets. There are two components of the return on asset (ROA) ratio - total margin (the ratio of net income to total revenues) and total asset turnover ratio (the ratio of total revenues to total assets). The product of these components yields the ROA ratio. By analysing these components, one can determine whether earning the highest net profit margin for each firm or utilizing the full capacity of all of the firm's assets generates the highest rupees revenues per asset, thereby bolstering the firm's financial performance (Ozcan and McCue, 1996). For example, in the retail industry, a low profit margin is compensated by high turnover or utilization. On the other hand, in the steel industry, a high profit margin on rupees revenues is counteracted by a low turnover per asset. The two components cannot always be analysed as if they acted independently. For organizations with high fixed costs, the components may interact. In these cases, a higher activity of services will lower the fixed cost per service which, in turn, will raise the profit margin. Thus, the componentsspecifically, net income to total revenues and total revenues to total assets-can provide additional information about the strengths and weaknesses of a firm. Component 4: Sales As net sales/capital employed ratio decreases the stock turnover ratio also tend to decrease. Resulting high closing stock and lower stock turnover. Low stock turnover leads to block in working capital due to low sales. Low sales resulting, high closing stock, and low stock turnover. Closing stock should be low so that stock rotate fast, thus this will lead to high stock turnover and thus enhance the liquidity position. Thus leads to sufficient generation of working capital. Most firms value sales growth. The business press and corporate annual reports frequently include statements like: "We plan to double sales in the next five years," or "Our objective is to be a $2 billion company within 7 years." The popular business press contains many examples of companies that focus on sales growth as a key to profitability (Brush, Bromiley, Hendrickx, 2000). Windows of opportunity and product life cycles have been shortening in recent years, placing pressure on firms to stay competitive. Many firms have responded to this pressure by setting goals of reducing new product development (NPD) cycle time and/or improving product performance, often by setting up fuzzy gates between stages, cross-functional teams, or both (Calantone & Benedetto, 2000). While a higher sales turnover implies a better utilization of asset base of the firm and hence higher efficiency, a higher profit margin implies that the firm enjoys significant market power and hence can reap what economists call ‘producer surplus’ or ‘rents’. Component 5: Long term funds or Solvency There is inverse relationship between long term debt and equity. As the debt equity ratio decreases proprietary ratio tend to increases. Debt equity ratio indicates the solvency of the company. High debt equity ratio leads to lower solvency. And lower level of debt leads to better solvency. The extent to which a firm uses debt financing, or financial leverage, has certain implications. Leverage is borrowing that allows a company to purchase more assets than its stockholders are able to pay for through their own investment (Stice & Stice, 2008). Creditors look to the equity, or owner-supplied funds, to provide a margin of safety, so higher the proportion of total capital provided by stockholders, the less the risk faced by creditors. In the other scenario if the firm earns more on investment financed with borrowed funds than it pays in interest, the return on the owner’s capital is magnified or leveraged. According to Brigham & Ehrhardt (2004), firms with relatively high debt ratios have higher expected returns when the economy is normal, but they are exposed to risk of loss when the economy goes into recession. Other factors, described in previous researches, which could be expected to have some influence on the performance indicator, are time, the debt-equity ratio, and firm size. Time as a trial allows for repeated measures on the same firm. Debt-equity ratio is indicated by the ratio of net worth to total assets (NWITA) and is used as a leverage effect. It would be reasonable to assume that a decline of NWITA will prompt stockholders to demand a larger ratio of net in-come to net worth (NIINW) to compensate for greater risk (McKean and Kania, 1978). In assessing solvency, generally various coverage ratios and at the debt-equity ratio are considered. The debt-equity ratio is debt divided by equity. The numerator of the debt-equity ratio can include all liabilities, all but current liabilities, or only long-term, interest-bearing debt; a given company's debt may be reduced to the extent that the company holds debt of other companies or of the government. The numerator of the conventional debt-equity ratio used in this study consists of long-term debt. The denominator of the debt-equity ratio is similarly variable. It sometimes includes only owners' equity, sometimes only long-term sources of capital (long-term debt plus owners' equity) and sometimes all the items on the right-hand side of the balance sheet (Lasman & Weil, 1978). Rating of engineering companies based on overall Financial performance. To find overall financial performance of engineering companies through ratio analysis, total rotations sums of squared loading been multiplied by each factor and all of them added. Overall Performance = FAC1_1*2.699+FAC2_1*1.916+FAC3_1*1.795+FAC4_1*1.470+FAC5_1*1.413 Table 6: List of companies as per over all financial performance of engineering in descending order. S. No. CoName 1 Gujarat Toolroom 2 Thermax 3 R.J. Shah 4 Hercules Hoists 5 Alfred Herbert (India) 6 AIA Engineering 7 Bharat Heavy Electricals 8 International Combustion (India) 9 BEML 10 Eimco Elecon (India) 11 Texmaco 12 TRF 13 Praj Industries 14 Kabra Extrusion Technik 15 Engineers India 16 GG Dandekar Machine Works 17 OM Metals Infraprojects 18 GMM Pfaudler 19 Premier 20 ABG Infralogistics OverAll_Per formance 16.89 10.14 9.13 8.87 8.08 7.74 5.03 3.78 3.75 3.26 3.01 2.78 2.30 1.95 1.94 1.68 1.65 0.84 0.60 0.53 S. No. CoName 21 Manugraph Industries 22 Mazda 23 Avery India 24 TIL 25 Hittco Precision Tool Tec 26 Electrotherm (India) 27 Action Construction Equipment 28 Skyline Millars 29 Kilburn Engineering 30 Reliance Industrial Infrastructure 31 Ecoboard Industries 32 Suzlon Energy 33 Incon Engineers 34 Wires and Fabriks (SA) 35 Cenlub Industries 36 Shanthi Gears 37 Kalindee Rail Nirman (Engineers) 38 Josts Engineers Company 39 Hindustan Dorr-Oliver 40 Punj Lloyd 41 Pitti Laminations OverAll_ Performa nce 0.07 -0.04 -0.41 -0.51 -0.53 -0.73 -0.80 -0.83 -0.96 -1.04 -1.20 -1.25 -1.30 -1.37 -1.46 -1.46 -1.54 -1.69 -1.69 -1.71 -1.81 S. No. CoName 42 GEI Industrial Systems OverAll_ Perform ance -1.93 43 Fluidomat -2.00 44 Flat Products Equipments (India) -2.01 45 Axtel Industries -2.05 46 Ion Exchange (India) -2.18 47 Shriram EPC -2.25 48 UB Engineering -2.29 49 Batliboi -2.41 50 Elecon Engineering Company -2.44 51 Vulcan Engineers -2.53 52 Petron Engineering Construction -2.57 53 Mcnally Bharat Engineering -2.74 54 Sanghvi Movers -2.91 55 LG Balakrishnan and Brothers -3.00 56 Permanent Magnets -3.16 57 Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone-4.15 58 UT -4.34 59 Stewarts and Lloyds of India -5.49 60 United Van Der Horst -5.54 61 BGR Energy Systems -6.91 62 Artson Engineering -8.78 The top ten companies in terms of overall financial performance Gujarat toolroom, Thermax, R. J. Shah, Hercules Hoists, Alfred Herbert (India), AIA Engineering, Bharat Heavy Electricals, International combustion (India), BEML and Eimco Elecon (India). And the bottom top companies are Mcnally Bharat Engineering, Sanghvi Movers, LG Balakrishnan and Brothers, Permqanent Magnets, Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone, UT, Stewarts and Lloyds of India, United Van Der Horst, BGR Energy Systems and Artson Engineering. The various limitation of the study are cross-sectional stochastic frontier model does not effectively handle statistical noise, panel data models do (Ruggiero, 2007). The study suffers from all the limitations of financial ratio analysis. Due financial crisis during year 2007-08, the generalization of the study is avoided. Sample data is constrained by availability of 2008 financial statement data, random nature of the sample may have been biased because of the rejection of certain companies in the original sample of 62 because of data limitations. Various implication of this study is, it will lead to methodological contribution & development of approach in quantifying, measuring and rating the firm’s performance for academic research. Business and managerial Implication is that it will lay the foundation for applied research. Techniques can be useful to equity analyst, general public for choosing better investment option etc. Many parties like brokerage houses, investment bankers, lending institution, commercial bankers, institutional investors, and private equity firms can get benefited. Government may base its policies relating to industries on the basis of the information available from various units. In the absence of reliable economic information, governmental plans and policies may not prove successful. Thus it will serve as policy Implication. Facilitate government, investors, shareholders etc. in knowing the relative position of particular firm in compared to its competitors with engineering industry. Different parties like the creditors, suppliers, investors, financial institutions; shareholders and the management are interested in knowing the financial performance and position of a firm for different purposes. There is further scope for research, where current cross-sectional study, this can extended to time series. Where time series data will capture efficiency more efficiently. Longitudinal study to evaluate the relationships tested in the hypothesized model. A cross sectional comparison (across industries within years) of factor patterns can be performed for each of the ten years. In order to aid this cross sectional comparison, an examination of time series (within industries across years) & stability of ratio patterns can be performed. Conclusion This study ranked 62 listed engineering companies, based on financial performance, computed using multivariate data analysis technique factor analysis, employing financial ratios as variables. The inference were drawn based on empirical data indicates that the imperative dimensions of performance are short term liquidity, returns to equity holders / profitability, assets utilization and returns, sales and long term funds or solvency.