WEATHER FORCASTING SYSTEM
Index
Sr. No
Contents
1
Introduction
2
2
Project Description
5
3
Resources Required
8
4
Advantage
12
5
Disadvantage
15
7
Source Code
16
8
Output
18
9
Conclusion
19
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WEATHER FORCASTING SYSTEM
Problem Statement
Weather forecasting refers to the process in which science and technology
are applied to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given
location and time. Humans have been making an unofficial weather
forecasting attempt millennia ago, and official weather forecasting dates
back to the nineteenth century. Weather forecasting is done by collecting
data on the current state of the atmosphere and applying a scientific
understanding of atmospheric processes to predict atmospheric
progression.
No doubt, tourism is strongly affected by climate and weather. The
increasing fluctuations of weather may affect tourists and tourism
businesses. Thus, weather forecasting helps in planning tourism facilities
to minimize the damage caused by severe weather, as well as increase
profitability. In particular, by checking the weather forecasts, tourists are
able to choose proper destinations for the best experience, plan their trips
to avoid possible risks.
Weather strongly impacts the safety and operation of roads. Driving
abilities can be impaired by severe weather conditions like snow, rain, or
storm. Moreover, There has been a slew of traffic accidents reportedly
caused by bad weather.
For air transportation, weather forecasters help reduce flight delays, flight
times, and energy savings, and ensure the safety and comfort of
passengers. The key importance of weather forecasting for this industry
is the provided information on critical weather conditions that could
endanger an aircraft at takeoff, landing, and during flight, e.g. strong
winds, thunderstorms, tornadoes, and ice.
Marine meteorologists prepare advisory information for ships, including
information on the position, trajectory, and intensity of strong storms and
warnings of strong winds, fog, and hazards. other risks, as well as general
forecasts about weather and sea conditions. Vessels may accordingly
change course to avoid adverse weather conditions. As a result, the safety
of ships, cargo and passengers is enhanced, and fuel is saved at the same
time.
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It’s true that weather affects how we choose outfits. It’s not easy to dress
well in unusual weather conditions, though your wardrobe is filled with
multiple items.
For example, you have an outdoor meeting tomorrow but you don’t know
how to dress properly. That’s where weather forecasts come in handy.
By checking whether, before the event, you can get an overview of how
the weather would look like to choose the best clothing without being
affected by the weather.
This helps save your time and solves the headache matter of what to
wear.
Temperature, humidity, and precipitation play an important role in the
cultivation of fruits and vegetables.
Farmers previously predicted the weather based on observations of the
sky. However, the development of meteorology these days has provided
them with accurate weather forecasts by using supercomputers to collect
data.
By regularly checking weather forecasts, farmers are able to know the
best time for crops and farming practices and better understand and track
the growth status to make potentially costly decisions.
One of the most noticeable benefits of weather forecasting is to make
proper plans. Checking weather forecasts online before the trip or before
you join outdoor activities to know what the weather is going to be like
and to have a good preparation.
Weather forecasting is crucial for preventing and controlling wildfires.
Various indicators, such as the Forest Fire Weather Index and the Haines
Index, have been developed to predict areas prone to fire caused by
natural or human. Growth conditions for insects can also be predicted by
forecasting the course of the weather.
Thanks to weather forecasts, electricity and gas companies can predict
demand that is strongly affected by the weather.
They used the quantity known as the degree day to determine how much
use would be available for heating (heating degree day) or cooling
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(cooling degree day). These quantities are based on an average daily
temperature of 65 ° F (18 ° C).
Extreme cold weather in winter can cause demand to skyrocket as people
have to increase heating. Likewise, in the summer, the soaring demand
may be related to the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot
weather. By anticipating soaring demand, utilities can buy more energy or
natural gas supplies before prices rise, or in some cases, limited supply
through use. electronics stores and power outages.
It is important to exactly determine the rainfall for effective use of water
resources,crop productivity and pre-planning of water structure
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to
predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location.Ancient weather
forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also
termed pattern recognition. For example, it might be observed that if the
sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather
However, not all of these predictions prove reliable.Here this system will
predict weather based on parameters such as temperature, humidity and
wind. User will enter current temperature; humidity and wind, System
will take this parameter and will predict weather(rainfall in inches) from
previous data in database(dataset). The role of the admin is to add
previous weather data in database, so that system will calculate
weather(estimated rainfall in inches) based on these data.
Weather forecasting system takes parameters such as temperature,
humidity, and wind and will forecast weather based on previous record
therefore this prediction will prove reliable. This system can be used in
Air
Traffic, Marine, Agriculture, Forestry, Military, and Navy etc
Rainfall Prediction is the application of science and technology to predict
the amount of rainfall over a region. It is important to exactly determine
the rainfall for effective use of water resources, crop productivity and preplanning of water structures.In this project, we used Linear Regression to
predict the amount of rainfall. Linear Regression tells us how many
inches of rainfall we can expect
Data Warehousing
Data Warehouse is electronic storage of a large amount of information by
a business which is designed for query and analysis instead of transaction
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processing. It is a process of transforming data into information and
making it
available to users for analysis.
Data Mining
Data mining is looking for hidden, valid, and potentially useful patterns
in huge data sets. Data Mining is all about discovering unsuspected/
previously unknown relationships amongst the data.It is a multidisciplinary skill that uses machine learning, statistics, AI and database
technology
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM WITH EXISTING TECH?
The traditional forecast process employed by most NMHSs involves
forecasters producing text-based, sensible, weather-element forecast
products (e.g.maximum/minimum temperature, cloud cover) using
numerical weather prediction (NWP) output as guidance.
The process is typically schedule-driven, product-oriented and labourintensive. Over the last decade, technological advances and scientific
breakthroughs have allowed NMHSs’ hydrometeorological forecasts and
warnings to become much more specific and accurate
. As computer technology and high-speed dissemination systems evolved
(e.g.Internet), National Weather Service (NWS) customers/partners were
demanding detailed forecasts in gridded, digital and graphic formats.
Traditional NWS text forecast products limit the amount of additional
information that can be conveyed to the user community.
The concept of digital database forecasting provides the capability to
meet customer/partner demands for more accurate, detailed
hydrometeorological forecasts. Digital database forecasting also offers
one of the most exciting opportunities to integrate PWS forecast
dissemination and service delivery, which most effectively serves the
user community.
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Feasibility Analysis
Feasibility Study in Software Engineering is a study to evaluate
feasibility of proposed project or system. Feasibility study is one of stage
among important four stages of Software Project Management Process.
As name suggests feasibility study is the feasibility analysis or it is a
measure of the software product in terms of how much beneficial product
development will be for the organization in a practical point of view.
Feasibility study is carried out based on many purposes to analyze
whether software product will be right in terms of development,
implantation, contribution of project to the organization etc.
Technical Feasibility –
In Technical Feasibility current resources both hardware software along
with required technology are analyzed/assessed to develop project. This
technical feasibility study gives report whether there exists correct
required resources and technologies which will be used for project
development. Along with this, feasibility study also analyzes technical
skills and capabilities of technical team, existing technology can be used
or not, maintenance and up-gradation is easy or not for chosen technology
etc.
Operational Feasibility –
In Operational Feasibility degree of providing service to requirements is
analyzed along with how much easy product will be to operate and
maintenance after deployment. Along with this other operational scopes
are determining usability of product, Determining suggested solution by
software development team is acceptable or not etc.
Economic Feasibility –
In Economic Feasibility study cost and benefit of the project is analyzed.
Means under this feasibility study a detail analysis is carried out what will
be cost of the project for development which includes all required cost for
final development like hardware and software resource required, design
and development cost and operational cost and so on. After that it is
analyzed whether project will be beneficial in terms of finance for
organization or not.
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Legal Feasibility –
In Legal Feasibility study project is analyzed in legality point of view.
This includes analyzing barriers of legal implementation of project, data
protection acts or social media laws, project certificate, license, copyright
etc. Overall it can be said that Legal Feasibility Study is study to know if
proposed project conform legal and ethical requirements.
Schedule Feasibility –
In Schedule Feasibility Study mainly timelines/deadlines is analyzed for
proposed project which includes how many times teams will take to
complete final project which has a great impact on the organization as
purpose of project may fail if it can’t be completed on time.
The results of the ground observation data experiment are not as successful
as a result of additional error sources, indicating the bias needs to be
handled correctly. By showing improvements with the loosely classified
cloud information, the feasibility of the developed model to be applied for
historical weather reconstruction is confirmed
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Requirement Engineering
Requirement Engineering is the process of defining, documenting and
maintaining the requirements. It is a process of gathering and defining
service provided by the system. Requirements Engineering Process
consists of the following main
Requirements Elicitation:
It is related to the various ways used to gain knowledge about the project
domain and requirements. The various sources of domain knowledge
include customers, business manuals, the existing software of same type,
standards and other stakeholders of the project.
The techniques used for requirements elicitation include interviews,
brainstorming, task analysis, Delphi technique, prototyping, etc. Some of
these are discussed here. Elicitation does not produce formal models of
the requirements understood. Instead, it widens the domain knowledge of
the analyst and thus helps in providing input to the next stage.
For Weather Forcasting:
Use of a barometerMeasurements of barometric pressure and the pressure
tendency have been used in forecasting since the late 19th century. The
larger the change in pressure, the larger the change in weather can be
expected. If the pressure drop is rapid, a low pressure system is
approaching, and there is a greater chance of rain [TF05].
Looking at the sky Along with pressure tendency, the condition of the sky
is one of the most important parameters used to forecast weather in
mountainous areas. Thickening of cloud cover or the invasion of a higher
cloud deck is an indication of rain in the near future.
At night, high thin clouds can lead to halos around the moon, which
indicates the approach of a warm front and its associated rain. Morning
fog portends fair conditions, as rainy conditions are preceded by wind or
clouds which prevent fog formation [KMQ10].Nowcasting The
forecasting of the weather within the next six hours is often referred to as
nowcasting.
In this time range, it is possible to forecast smaller features such
asindividual showers and thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy, as
well as other features too small to be resolved by a computer model. A
human, given the latest radar, satellite and observational data will be able
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to make a better analysis of the small scale features present and so will be
able to make a more accurate forecast for the following few hours
[RR03].
Analog technique
The analog technique is a complex way of making a forecast, requiring
the forecaster to remember a previous weather event which is expected to
be mimicked by an upcoming event. It remains a useful method of
observing rainfall in places such as oceans, as well as the forecasting of
precipitation amounts and distribution in the future.
A similar technique is used in medium range forecasting, which is known
asteleconnections, when systems in other locations are used to help pin
down the location of another system within the surrounding regime.
Requirements specification:
This activity is used to produce formal software requirement models. All
the requirements including the functional as well as the non-functional
requirements and the constraints are specified by these models in totality.
During specification, more knowledge about the problem may be required
which can again trigger the elicitation process.
The models used at this stage include ER diagrams, data flow
diagrams(DFDs), function decomposition diagrams(FDDs), data
dictionaries, etc.
Requirements verification and validation:
Verification: It refers to the set of tasks that ensures that the software
correctly implements a specific function.
Validation: It refers to a different set of tasks that ensures that the
software that has been built is traceable to customer requirements.
If requirements are not validated, errors in the requirement definitions
would propagate to the successive stages resulting in a lot of modification
and rework.
The main steps for this process include:
The requirements should be consistent with all the other requirements i.e
no two requirements should conflict with each other.
The requirements should be complete in every sense.
The requirements should be practically achievable.
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Reviews, buddy checks, making test cases, etc. are some of the methods
used for this.
For Weather Forcasting:
Numerical Weather Prediction model
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the science of predicting the
weather using models of the atmosphere and computational techniques.
Current weather conditions are used at the input of the mathematical
models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. This model usually
provides surrounding point around the wind farm with a spatial resolution
of a few kilometers.NWP uses the power of computers to make a
forecast. A forecaster examines how the features predicted by the
computer will interact to produce the day's weather. The NWP method is
flawed in that the equations used by he models to simulate the
atmosphere are not precise
A number of weather forecasting agencies operate modeling centers
where supercomputers are used to run NWP models that span the entire
globe. These include the National Center for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) in the United States, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office
(UKMO), and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF). Although costly, a global approach to NWP is essential,
especially for long-range forecasting.
For this reason, achieving accurate forecasts requires an accurate
analysis from which to get the model started. This involves a computerbased process called data assimilation, in which the most recent weather
observations from around the world are combined with model forecasts to
create a global analysis of current conditions. This becomes the starting
point for the next run of the NWP model, and is the computer equivalent
of the manual analysis cycle that forecasters carry out on an on-going
basis. Global models play a key role in modern weather forecasting, and
meteorologists at Met Service routinely use the NCEP, UKMO and
ECMWF models to assist with day-to-day production of forecasts and
weather warnings. These models give insight into the behavior of weather
systems on a large scale, without much emphasis on local detail [FS78].
Ensemble Forecasting
To predict the weather forecast meteorologists have developed
atmospheric models that approximate the atmosphere by using ensemble
forecasting to describe how atmospheric temperature, pressure and
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moisture will change over time. The equations are programmed into a
computer and the data on the present atmospheric conditions are fed
into the computer. The computer solves the equations to determine how
the different atmospheric variables will change over the next few minutes.
The computer repeats this procedure again and again using the output
from one cycle as the input for the next cycle. For some desired time in
the future, the computer prints its calculated information.
It then analyzes the data, drawing the lines for the projected position of
the various pressure systems. A forecaster uses the prognostic chart as a
guide to predicting the weather. There are many atmospheric models that
represent the atmosphere, with each one interpreting the atmosphere in a
slightly different way. Weather forecasts made for 12 and 24 hours are
typically accurate. Forecasts made for two or three days are usually
good. Beyond above five days, forecast accuracy falls off rapidly.
Weather information can also come from remote sensing, particularly
radar and satellites.
Requirements management:
Requirement management is the process of analyzing, documenting,
tracking, prioritizing and agreeing on the requirement and controlling the
communication to relevant stakeholders. This stage takes care of the
changing nature of requirements. It should be ensured that the SRS is as
modifiable as possible so as to incorporate changes in requirements
specified by the end users at later stages too. Being able to modify the
software as per requirements in a systematic and controlled manner is an
extremely important part of the requirements engineering process.
For Weather Forcasting:
Radar
Radar stands for Radio Detection and Ranging. In radar, a transmitter
sends out radio waves. The radio waves bounce off the nearest object and
then return to a receiver. Weather radar can sense many characteristics of
precipitation, its location, motion, intensity, and the likelihood of future
precipitation. Most weather radar is Doppler radar, which can also track
how fast the precipitation falls. Radar can outline the structure of a
storm and in doing so estimates the possibility that it will produce severe
weather condition [NCW12].
Weather satellites have been increasingly important sources of weather
data since the first one was launched in 1952. Weather satellites are the
best way to monitor large scale systems, like storms. Satellites can also
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monitor the spread of ash from a volcanic eruption, smoke from fires, and
pollution. They are able to record long-term changes. shows one of the
geostationary satellites that monitors conditions over the world. Weather
satellites may observe all energy from all wavelengths in the
electromagnetic spectrum. Most important are the visible light and
infrared (heat) frequencies [ADB12]
Weather maps simply and graphically depict meteorological conditions in
the atmosphere. Weather maps may display only one feature of the
atmosphere or multiple features. They can depict information from
computer models or from human observations. Weather maps are found
in newspapers, on television, and on the Internet. On a weather map, each
weather station will have important meteorological conditions plotted.
These conditions may include temperature, current weather, dew
point, cloud cover, sea level air pressure, wind speed and direction. On a
weather map, meteorologists use many different symbols.
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System Requirement Specification
Operating Environment:
It is an weather update application. We can download it on any
android/apple device. forecasts and warning services are based on
weather information derived from numerous sources, including weather
observations and data gathered by the National Weather Service and
meteorological organizations. This application is linked with Google
maps so it can find our current location tell us about the weather,
temperature etc. Since this is a weather forecast application, graphics
don’t matter much but still accuweather’s graphics are quite good. It takes
41 MB of total space
Software Requirements
As we know that it is a weather forecast application so the major design
constraint is the mobile platform. This application is more concerned with
their accuracy about the prediction. And being one of the very accurate
sites. Graphics are not one of the top priorities. As the application is
actually designed for mobiles so the resolution for the product and the
screen size limitation will bea big design consideration. Therefore to
design an interface that will attract the user eye and is easyto navigate
will be a tough job. As the mobiles have limited processing speed and
storage memory so these things should be under consideration while
implementation process. The product is meantto be quick even when a
large amount of users are interacting with it, so each of the
functionalityshould be design and implemented while promising the
efficiency of the product.
This system will provide a graphical user interface. The layout of the
system will be a homepage of the appwith a header on the top which
displays the name of the website, under that their will be a navigation bar
togo to related pages and have buttons to login and to go for help, under
the navigation bar we have the mainbody which displays the live weather
stream on one half of the page and displaying forecast on the otherhalf,
and at the end of the page their will be a footer which displays the contact
information
The software interfaces that will be used are Visual Studio and SQL
Management Studio. Visual Studio willbe used for the coding of the app
and for buttons. SQL management will be used to maintain the database
tostore the forecast. So that the weather can be stored and users can view
them as they want and to give theoverly month weather condition
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Internal Dependencies:
The product will be only depending upon hardware which is the only
internal dependency that we have to care about.
Hardware Dependency:
Some of the features of weather forcast system will rely on some of the
hardware components of the android mobile systems. First the app will be
depending upon the memory of the android mobile systems. Therefore
theproduct installation will be depending upon available storage
memory in the android mobiles. It alsodepends on the location.
We can manually put in our location to check weather. But we turn on
our locationservices, things will be way easier.
Describe the logical and physical characteristics of each interface
between the software product and thehardware components of the system.
This may include the supported device types, the nature of the data
andcontrol interactions between the software and the hardware, and
communication protocols to be used
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