Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY - Pablo Borbon
Rizal Avenue, Batangas City
COLLEGE OF ACCOUNTANCY, BUSINESS, ECONOMICS
and INTERNATIONAL HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT
Graduate Studies Department
Requirement on Business Analytics
Forecasting
The World Health Organization (WHO) was notified on December 31, 2019, of an
unidentified cause pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. In less than two
weeks, the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outside of China was observed in a
Chinese tourist in Thailand, with no empirical link to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.
COVID-19 has since spread throughout the world, infecting over 200 countries and millions of
people. COVID-19 is a type of viral penumonia caused by the acute respiratory syndrome ( sars
epidemic coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Flu, sore throat, extreme tiredness, shortness of breath,
muscle stiffness, normal or decreased leukocyte counts, and radiographic evidence of pneumonia
are the most common symptoms at the onset of the disease. Several evidences suggest that it
can be passed from person to person through direct contact or through droplets spread by an
infected individual's coughing or sneezing.
The rapid increase in daily rates of infection, extent of cases, and number of deaths
demonstrated that the disease is extremely contagious and infectious. In the absence of a vaccine,
control and prevention are essential for slowing the transmission of the infection so that the
healthcare system can handle the influx of patients and the economy can recover from the effects
of lockdown restrictions. To achieve this goal, modeling and forecasting are critical for developing
effective and data-driven decisions, strategies, and policies.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, there have been many publications using various
mathematical and machine learning-based models that forecast the spread and give a prediction
of the epidemic peak globally, for specific countries such as in Brazil, Russia, India, and
Bangladesh, and USA.
Due to the rapid rise in COVID-19 infection cases in many countries, including the
Philippines, various efforts have been made to forecast daily infections in order to better manage
and respond to the pandemic. Each country has since implemented a lockdown, resulting in an
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY - Pablo Borbon
Rizal Avenue, Batangas City
COLLEGE OF ACCOUNTANCY, BUSINESS, ECONOMICS
and INTERNATIONAL HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT
Graduate Studies Department
economic shutdown. To limit the spread of the infection, strict measures such as mandatory use
of face masks and face shields, social distancing, and lockdowns were implemented in various
parts of the world. The vaccine rollout in the Philippines officially began in mid-2021. It has given
people hope that they can finally face the new normal. Sadly, despite the availability of vaccines,
there are still people who are unwilling to be vaccinated, and some are still skeptical that COVID
exists. As a result, there has been an abrupt increase in Covid cases from various cities and
provinces throughout the Philippines.
The most severe increase in covid cases and deaths occurred in the third quarter of 2021
as a result of the emergence of the Delta variant, an easily transmissible variant that can infect
up to 20 people in just minutes. This variant, however, did not last long after its initial wave; it
covid slows down from mid-October, 2021 to the present. The economy is reviving, businesses
are reopening, travel restrictions have been lifted, and children are now permitted to leave the
house. People will not become complacent because the economy has finally recovered because
COVID is still in place. We can only hope that it will become endemic and then disappear, allowing
people, economies, and the world to return to normal.
The aftermath of the Delta variant makes the Philippines into a worst situation compare
from 2020. Now, Aside from Delta variant we are already expose in Omicron variant that also
spreads easily and a bit deadly.
The significance of data analysis in this time of crisis is obvious, as its results serve as a
guide in forecasting possible numbers useful in the decision-making of health professionals and
country leaders. The entire country is heavily reliant on data. Understanding the infection's
transmission dynamics is a critical step in determining the efficacy of control measures. As a
result, projections of COVID-19 cases, deaths, cases per million, and deaths per million are
required for the Philippines. Health organizations and country leaders examine the
characteristics of COVID-19 affected populations based on the data provided by COVID-19
(healthdata.org).
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY - Pablo Borbon
Rizal Avenue, Batangas City
COLLEGE OF ACCOUNTANCY, BUSINESS, ECONOMICS
and INTERNATIONAL HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT
Graduate Studies Department
Figure 1 Reported Covid Deaths
Figure 1. shows that the number of Cumulative reported deaths each day, even though there is
a lag between infection and death, this data serves as an indicator of the pandemic's growth.
According to the data, there is a rise in the number of deaths in April. Another movement of
increased mortality occurred in August and lasted until mid-October. The rise was caused by the
upsurge of the delta variant, which infected large areas of the Philippines, resulting in more
deaths and a scarcity of hospitals and medical frontliners. Cases of death have slowed in early
November as a result of more vaccines and stricter health implementation measures. According
to the data, the projected death rate will slow in the first quarter of 2022. But the presence of
the Omicron variant (in the red dotted line) you will see that there might be a severity in the
worst-case scenario in the first quarter of 2022.
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY - Pablo Borbon
Rizal Avenue, Batangas City
COLLEGE OF ACCOUNTANCY, BUSINESS, ECONOMICS
and INTERNATIONAL HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT
Graduate Studies Department
Figure 2 Daily Covid Death
Figure 2. shows that the number of reported deaths each day, even though there is a lag between
infection and death, this data serves as an indicator of the pandemic's movement. According to
the data, number of deaths in its highest peak is in September 12, 2021 before it drops down
until today as the cases of death have slowed in early November as a result of more vaccines,
vaccination drives and stricter health implementation measures. The rise was caused by the surge
of the delta variant, which infected large areas of the Philippines, resulting in more deaths and a
scarcity of hospitals and medical frontliners. According to the data, the projected death rate will
slow in the month of December and January but the presence of the Omicron variant it will surge
on its highest peak on the month of February and March.
Figure 3 Vaccine Coverage
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY - Pablo Borbon
Rizal Avenue, Batangas City
COLLEGE OF ACCOUNTANCY, BUSINESS, ECONOMICS
and INTERNATIONAL HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT
Graduate Studies Department
Figure 3 Vaccine distribution is likely to continue at its current rate. Where mobility rises in direct
proportion to vaccination coverage. In nations where it is accessible, 80 percent of those who are
vaccinated receive a third dose at six months. displays the movement of vaccination efforts taking
place in the United States. In March 2021, Covid vaccines will be accessible. On March 1, 2021,
771 immunizations and the first dose were provided, according to the Department of Health's
website (doh.gov.ph). Every day, the number of vaccinations provided increases. The Philippines
is predicted to have 46 percent of its people fully vaccinated by March 2022, according to the
data presented.
Figure 4 Hospital Resource Use
Figure 4 depicts the hospital resource, which reflects how well-equipped a facility is to treat
COVID-19 patients under the current projected scenario. According to the data provided, hospital
got their highest peak on bed utilization is on September 8, 2021 and eventually slowed in
November and December. The forecast will a bit uptrend on the first quarter due to the Omicron
variant. A decline in the daily number (7-day average) of COVID-19 dedicated ICU beds occupied
was observed (1,230 beds this week compared to 1,464 beds last week), and a downtrend in the
utilization of COVID-19 dedicated mechanical ventilators (7-day average) for week 45 (615
ventilators compared to 713 ventilators last week) was observed.
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY - Pablo Borbon
Rizal Avenue, Batangas City
COLLEGE OF ACCOUNTANCY, BUSINESS, ECONOMICS
and INTERNATIONAL HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT
Graduate Studies Department
Figure 5 Daily Infection and Testing
Figure 5 as shown on the table there is severity of Omicron variant on the first quarter of 2022.
Percentage of hospitalization is twice as high as Delta variant case; a proportion of deaths is three
times as high compare to projections. There are 100 percent third dose initiatives to prevent the
spread of a new variant. The number of persons infected with COVID-19 that the graph estimate
are infected each day, including those who have not been tested, is referred to as estimated
infections.
The discussion was centered on the findings, which included the impact of Philippine control
efforts, important contributions, current issues, and problems of the COVID-19 pandemic with
control measures.
Submitted by:
Winecar S. Tanala
20-50461