Table of Contents Chapter 1. - The World of Project Management ....................................................................... 2 Chapter 2 - The Manager, the Organization, and the Team ................................................. 7 Chapter 3 – Project Activity and Risk Planning..................................................................... 13 Chapter 4 – Budgeting the Project ............................................................................................ 16 Chapter 5: Scheduling The Project ............................................................................................ 20 Chapter 6: Allocating Resources to the Project ..................................................................... 21 Chapter 7 – Monitoring and controlling the project............................................................ 23 Chapter 8 – Evaluating and Terminating the Project ......................................................... 29 1 Chapter 1. - The World of Project Management 1) What is a project? Each work activity that is unique with a specific deliverable aimed at meeting a specific need or purpose. Project Management Institute (PMI): “A temporary endeavour undertaken to create a unique product, service or result” o Program projects tasks subtasks Multidisciplinary teams are complex and often result into conflict. Why projects? We form projects in order to fix the responsibility and authority for the achievement of an organizational goal on an individual or small group when the job does not clearly fall within the definition of routine work. Trends in Project Management: o Achieving Strategic Goals o Achieving Routine Goals projectizing: artificial deadlines and budgets are created to accomplish specific, though routine, departmental tasks. o Improving Project Effectiveness Project Management Office (PMO) takes responsibility for many of the administrative and specialized tasks of project management. Evaluate an organization’s project management ‘maturity’, or skill and experience in managing projects. Educate project managers about the ancillary goals of the organisation Achieving better control over each project through the use of phase gates, earned value and critical ratios. o Virtual Projects o Quasi-Projects 2) Project Management vs. General Management Project manager (PM) has special skills in conflict resolution. Projects are unique so PM must be flexible, creative and have the ability to adjust rapidly to changes. Major differences o Scope Product scope = the performance requirements of a project Project scope = the work required to deliver the product scope 2 3) What is managed? The three goals of a project Scope, meet the budget and the time (“schedule”) o Manage trade-offs between these three elements to reduce unavoidable uncertainty. Risk analysis: identify potential uncertain events and the likelihood that any or all may occur minimize (fourth goal) o Risk profiles o Projects must have some flexibility, otherwise it is overdetermined (every resource fixed) 4) The life cycles of projects Either time (schedule) or resources (budget) Early stage: project plan reflects the wishes of the client as well as the abilities of project team and is consistent with the parent organization’s goals and objectives. Implementation stage: keep the project on schedule and budget or (when shit goes down) negotiate the appropriate trade-offs to correct or minimize damage. 3 End of project: “fuss-budget” to assure that the specifications of the project are truly met 5) Selecting Projects To Meet Organizational Objectives “Enterprise project management/management by projects” = a new kind of organization that deals with the accelerating growth in the number of multiple simultaneously ongoing, and often interrelated projects in organizations. o Was created to tie projects more closely to the organization’s goals and strategy and to integrate and centralize management methods for the growing number of ongoing projects. Project Portfolio Process: the process of strategically selecting the best set of projects for implementation. o Profitable? o Mandate? o Does the firm have the required knowledge to successfully carry out project? o Project builds competencies consistent with firm’s strategic plans? o Does the organization have the capacity for proposed schedule? o In case of R&D projects, does it meet all requirements to make economically successful? Nonnumeric Selection Methods o The Sacred Cow senior executive gives blessing to a project o The Operating/Competitive Necessity this method selects any project that is necessary for continued operation of a group, facility or the firm itself. o Comparative Benefits selection committee ranks the potential projects. Q-sort separate projects into three subsets “good”, “fair” and “poor”. If there are more than 7 or 8 member in the subsets, subdivide the groups even more e.g. good-plus, good-minus. 4 Numeric Selection Methods o Financial Assessment Methods Payback period = the initial fixed investment in the project divided by the estimated annual net cash inflows from the project (which include the cash inflows from depreciation of the investment). Defect: Does not include time value of money. Discounted cash flow 𝑛 NPV (project) = 𝐼0 + ∑ 𝐹𝑡 /(1 + k)𝑡 𝑡=1 o o k = the required rate of return or hurdle rate If a project is competing for funds with alternative investments, the hurdle rate may be the opportunity cost of capital, the rate of return the firm must forego if it invests in the project instead of making an alternative investment. Defects: (1) it ignores all nonmonetary factors except risk (2) bias the selection system by favoriting short-run projects Financial Options and Opportunity Costs Scoring Methods Unweighted 0-1 factor method Weighted factor scoring method (1) the categories for each scale need not be in equal intervals (2) the five-point scales can be based on either quantitative or qualitative data, thus allowing inclusion of financial and other “hard” data (cash flows, NPV…) as well as “soft” subjective data (fit with the organization’s goals, personal preferences…) 6) The Project Portfolio Process (PPP) Step 1: Establish a Project Council o Responsible for establishing and articulating a strategic direction for projects. Also for allocating funds to projects and controlling the allocation of resources and skills to those projects. o Exists out of senior management, PM major projects, head of PMO and relevant GM (those who identify key opportunities etc.) and finally those who can derail the progress of the PPP later in the process. Step 2: Identify Project Categories and Criteria o Wheelwright and Clark (1992) developed a matrix “aggregate project plan” to position many of the product and process changes: 5 1. Derivative projects: These are projects with objectives or deliverables that are only incrementally different in both product and process from existing offerings. They are often meant to replace current offerings or add an extension to current offerings. 2. Platform projects: The planned outputs of these projects represent major departures from existing offerings in terms of either the product/service itself or the process used to make and deliver it, or both. 3. Breakthrough projects: (newer than platform) maybe disruptive in the industry or something proprietary that the organization has been developing over time. 4. R&D projects: “blue sky” projects oriented towards using newly developed technologies, or existing technologies in a new manner. Step 3: Collect Project Data Step 4: Assess Resource Availability Step 5: Reduce the Project and Criteria Set Step 6: Prioritize the Projects within Categories Step 7: Select the Projects to Be Funded and Held in Reserve Step 8: Implement the Process 6 Chapter 2 - The Manager, the Organization, and the Team 1) The PM’s Roles Facilitator Facilitator vs Supervisor The PM must ensure that those who work on the project have the appropriate knowledge and resources, including that most precious resource, time, to accomplish their assigned responsibilities. o Manager’s responsibility is to make sure that the required resources are available and that the task is properly concluded. o PM uses system’s approach to understand and solve problems Includes study of the bits and pieces, but also an understanding of how they fit together, how they interact, and how they affect and are affected by their environment. Conducts the group so that it contributes to total system optimization all subsystem optimized (suboptimization) does not mean the total system is not even close to optimum performance. o Traditional manager uses analytic approach Centers on understanding the bits and pieces in a system. It prompts study of the molecules, then atoms, then electrons, and so forth. Manages his or her group (subsystem of the organization) with a desire to optimize the group’s performance. Systems Approach The PM is responsible for planning, organizing, staffing, budgeting, directing and controlling the project. The PM ‘manages’ it. Micromanagement At times, the PM may work for a program manager who closely supervises and second-guesses every decision the PM makes. Such bosses are also quite willing to help by instructing the PM exactly what to do. Communicator 7 Scope creep: Client drops into check on project and asks to alter project scope. PM suggest changes given the added cost and delayed delivery. Virtual Project Manager Meetings, Convener and Chair 2) The PM’s Responsibilities To The Project Acquiring Resources Fighting Fires and Obstacles Leadership and Making Trade-Offs Negotiation, Conflict Resolution, and Persuasion o Jay Conger (1998) describes skill of persuasion as having four essential parts: (1) effective persuaders must be credible to those they are trying to persuade, (2) they must find goals held in common with those being persuaded, (3) they must use ‘vivid’ language and compelling evidence; and (4) they must connect with the emotions of those they are trying to persuade. 3) Selection of a Project Manager Credibility o Technical and administrative credibility Sensitivity Leadership, Style, Ethics o The more technical uncertain a project, the more flexible the style of management should be. The more complex a project, the more formal the style should be. Flexibility: the degree that new ideas and approaches are considered. Formality: the degree to which the project operates in a structured environment. 5)Fitting Projects Into The Parent Organization “Why projects?” o Devising product development programs by integrating product design, engineering, manufacturing and marketing functions in one team not only 8 improved the product, it also allowed significant cuts in the time-tomarket for the product. o The product development/design process requires input from different areas of specialized knowledge. o The explosive expansion of technical capabilities in almost every area of the organization tends to destabilize the structure of the enterprise project organization can handle this change, traditional org can’t o Many upper-level managers we know lack confidence in their ability to cope with and respond to such large-scale change, but project organizations can. o The rapid growth of globalized industry often involves the integration of activities carried out by different firms located in different countries, often on different continents. Organizing such activities into a project improves the firm’s ability to ensure overall compliance with the laws and regulations of dissimilar governments as well as with the policies of widely assorted participating firms. Pure Project Organization o Large, complex projects that often required the service of hundreds of people. Involves hiring specialists from all kinds of fields. o Once project is finished, PM and specialists return to their parent firm and await next job. o For large projects effective and efficient o For small projects very expensive way to operate o Drawbacks: broad range of specialists, but limited technological depth. o “Projectitis”: the project begins to take life on its own, employees are worried whether or not there is life after the project, they’re very attached to the project foot dragging Figure – Pure Project Organization 9 Functional Project Organization o Embedded in the functional group where the project will be used. o The functional project has immediate, direct and complete contact with the most important technologies it may need, and it has in depth access. o The fractional resource problem is minimized for anyone working in the project’s functional group. Functionally organized projects do not have the high personnel costs associated with pure projects because they can easily assign people to the project on a part-time basis. o Even projectitis will be minimized because the project is not removed from the parent organization and specialists are not divorced from their normal career tracks. o Two major problems: Communications across functional department boundaries are rarely as simple as most firms think they are technological breadth is missing (slow communication) The project is rarely a high priority item in the life of the division Matrix Project Organization o Advantages: Matrix project closely resembles the pure project with many individuals assigned full-time to the project = “strong” matrix or a “project” matrix Functional departments assign resource capacity to the project rather than people = “weak” matrix or “functional” matrix Hybrid former two = “balanced” matrix Most important strength is this flexibility in the way it can interface with the parent organization. The way it utilizes the services of the several technical units need not be the same for each unit. This allows the functional department to optimize their contributions to any project. o Disadvantages: 10 The specialists borrowed from a function have two bosses faced with conflicting orders from the PM and the functional manager. Violates “Unity of Command” Superiority FM>PM The ability to balance resources among several projects has dark side, has to be monitored which is a though job. Intrateam conflicts Mixed Organizational Systems o Operate all three types of projects simultaneously The Project Management Office and Project Maturity o Set-up PMO as a functional group useful when the system operates many small projects with short lives. o Works well when the specialists have fairly routine projects. o E(nterprise)PMO maintains oversight of the entire portfolio of projects carried out by the firm, acting as a project selection committee, making sure that the set of projects is consistent with the firm’s strategies. o PM3 – (measures the degree to which individual organizations have mastered state-of-the-art project management practices) in this system the final project “maturity” of an organization is assessed as being at one of five levels Ad-hoc (disorganized, accidental success, and failures) Abbreviated (some processes exist, inconsistent management, unpredictable results) 11 Organized (standardized processes, more predictable results) Managed (controlled and measured processes, results more in line with plans) Adaptive (continuous improvement in processes, success is normal, performance keeps improving). 6) The Project Team They must be technically competent. Senior members of the project team must be politically sensitive project champion Members of the project team need a strong problem orientation. Team members need a strong goal orientation. Project workers need high self-esteem. Intrateam Conflict o Integration management (aka systems engineering) is the task of bringing the work of all the departments together to make a harmonious whole. o Interface coordination (aka interface management) is the job of managing this work across multiple groups. 7) Multidisciplinary Teams – Balancing Pleasure and Pain Integration Management o Parallel tasking (aka concurrent engineering or simultaneous engineering) was invented as a response to the time and cost associated with the traditional method. allows all groups involved in designing a project to work as a single group and join together to solve design problems simultaneously rather than separately and solving the problems sequentially. Design Structure Matrix (DSM) o Useful when information from some project activities is required to complete other activities. Comments on empowerment and work teams o Important advantages of empowerment are: Teams generate high quality solutions to appropriate problems Micromanagement is avoided The team is given accountability for some part of the project deliverable Synergistic solutions are frequent The PM has a tool for timely team evaluation and feedback. 12 Chapter 3 – Project Activity and Risk Planning 1. The basis of a project plan – the “project charter" The PMBOK Project Plan is comprehensive and refers to the Project Charter and all the elements concerning the planning, execution and control of the project. The multiple elements a plan should include are: o Purpose o Objectives (project mission statement) o Overview o Schedules o Resource requirements (project budget) o Personnel and stakeholders o Risk management o Evaluation methods 3. The planning process – nuts and bolts The launch meeting – and subsequent meetings Purpose of this interview is to: 1) Make sure that the PM understands the expectations that the organization, the client and other stakeholders have for the project 2) To identify those among the senior managers who have an interest in this project. 3) To determine if anything about the project is atypical for projects of the same general kind The results of the launch meeting should be that: 1) The project’s scope is understood and temporarily fixed 2) the various functional managers understand their responsibilities and have committed to develop an initial task and resource plan 3) Any potential benefits to the organization outside the scope if the project are noted. Baseline plan, when signed off, it becomes part of the Project Charter, a contractlike document affirming that all major parties-at-interest to the project are in agreement on the deliverables, the cost and the schedule. Sorting Out the Project – The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) The hierarchical planning process, which is how to build a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). o Start with project objective PM makes list of major activities to be achieved (level 1 activities) breakdown until activities who cannot be broken down any further. 13 4. More on the work breakdown structure and other aids The Responsible-Accountable-Consult-Inform Matrix (RACI Matrix) 14 5. Risk management Includes three areas: Risk identification Risk analysis Response to risk The process of accomplishing these three tasks is broken down into six subprocesses: 1) Risk Management Planning 2) Risk Identification 3) Qualitative Risk o Scenario Analysis o Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) 4) Quantitative Risk o Estimates o Expected Value 5) Risk Response Planning o Contingency Plan o Logic Chart 6) Risk Monitoring and Control 15 Chapter 4 – Budgeting the Project 1. Methods of budgeting Budgeting is simply the process of forecasting what resources the project will require, what quantities of each will be needed, when they will be needed, and how much they will cost. A cost may be viewed from three perspectives different perspectives: o PM recognizes a cost once a commitment is made to pay someone for resources or services o The accountant recognizes an expense when an invoice is received o The controller perceives an expense when the check for the invoice is mailed. Top-Down budgeting based on the collective judgements and experiences top and middle managers concerning similar past projects. These managers estimate the overall project cost by estimating the costs of major tasks, which estimates are then given to the next lower level of managers to split up among the tasks under their control, and so on, until all the work is budgeted. o Advantages: Overall budget costs can be estimated with fair accuracy, though individual elements may be in substantial error. Errors in funding small tasks need not be individually identified. When a small but important task was overlooked, this does not usually cause a serious budgetary problem. Bottom-Up budgeting Individual budget to one main budget. The PM then adds, according to organizational policy, indirect costs such as general and administrative, a reserve for contingencies, and a profit figure to arrive at a final project budget. o More accurate in the detailed tasks, but risk the chance of overlooking some small but costly tasks o Common in organizations with a participative management philosophy and leads to better morale, greater acceptance of the resulting budget, and heightened commitment by the project team. o Rare o Allows the budget to be controlled by people who play little role in designing and doing the work required by the project. It should be obvious that this will cause problems - and it does. 2. Cost Estimating Work Element Costing: the fully costed task will include direct costs for labor, machinery and resources such as materials, plus overhead charges, and finally, GS&A (general, sales and administrative) costs. The Impact of Budget Cuts 16 o Jobs always look easier, faster and cheaper to the boss than to the person who has to do them. o Bosses are usually optimistic and never admit that details have been forgotten or that anything can or will go wrong o Subordinates are naturally pessimistic and want to build in protection for everything that might possibly go wrong. Important assumption: boss and employee reasonably honest o For projects with S-shaped life cycles, the top-down budgeting process is probably acceptable. For J-shaped life-cycle projects, it is dangerous for upper management not to accept the bottom-up budget estimates. Activity vs. Program Budgeting o Traditional organizational budgets are typically activity oriented and based on historical data accumulated through an activity-based accounting system show lines of standard activity by actual and budget for given time periods. o Program budgeting: the budget is divided by task and expected time of expenditure, thereby allowing aggregation across projects. 3. Improving Cost Estimates Learning curves o Each time the output doubles, the worker hours per unit decrease by a fixed percentage of their previous value = learning rate, typical value between 70 and 95 percent. The higher values are for more mechanical tasks, while the lower, faster-learning values are for more mental tasks. Tracking signals o Random error = when there is a roughly equal chance that estimates are above or below the true value of a variable, and the average size of the error is approximately equal for over and under estimates. cancel out Not cancel out? biased = systematic error Tracking signal is a cancelation that can reveal if there is systematic bias in cost and other estimates and whether bias is positive or negative. 17 Other factors o Changes in resources are a common problem resolve by increasing all cost estimate by some fixed percentage. o Another problem is overlooking the need to factor into the estimated costs an adequate allowance for waste and spoilage. determine individual rates of waste and spoilage each task o A similar problem is not adding an allowance for increased personnel costs due to loss and replacement of skilled project team members. o The Brooks’s “mythical man-month” effect: as workers are hired, either for additional capacity or to replace those who leave, they require training in the project environment before they become productive. The training is informal on-the-job training conducted by their co-workers who must take time from their own project tasks, thus resulting in ever more reduced capacity as more workers are hired. 4) Budget Uncertainty And Project Risk Management Budget Uncertainty o Three causes for Change: Some changes are due to errors the cost estimator made about how to achieve the tasks identified in the project plan. (technological uncertainty) Other changes result because the project team or client learns more about the nature of the scope of the project or the setting in which it is to be used. This derives from an increase in the team’s or client’s knowledge or sophistication about the project deliverables. The mandate: a new law is passed, a governmental regulatory agency adopts a new policy, a trade organization sets a new standard. o Handling Changes Least preferred way = accept a negative change and take a loss on the project. 18 Best approach = prepare for change ahead of time by including provisions in the original contract for such changes. Three ways to revise a budget during the course of the project: 1. Changes are early elements of the project and are not seen to impact the rest of the project new budget can be estimated as the old budget plus the changes from the early elements. 2. Some systemic has changed that will impact the costs of the rest of the project tasks as well new budget estimate will be the accumulated costs to date plus previous estimates of the rest of the budget multiplied by some correction factor for the systemic change. 3. Some individual changes now perceived to impact specific elements of the remaining project tasks actual costs to date plus the expected costs for the remaining project tasks. 19 Chapter 5: Scheduling The Project 1) PERT and CPM Networks PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) developed by US Navy, BoozAllen Hamilton, and CPM by Dupont De Nemours Inc. o Both methods identified a critical path of tasks o Identified activities with slack (or float) o Traditional PERT is used less often than CPM The language of PERT/CPM o Activity – A task or set of tasks required by the project, use resources and time o Event – An identifiable state resulting from the completion of one or more activities. Events consume no resources or time. o Milestones – Identifiable and noteworthy events marking significant progress on the project. o Network o Path o Critical Path – the set of activities on a path from a projector’s start event to its finish event that, if delayed, will delay completion date project. o Critical Time – The time required to complete all activities on the critical path. Building the network o Two ways to display a project network: Activity-on-arrow (AOA) network, usually associated with PERT. Activity-on-node (AON) network, usually associated with CPM. o Dummy activity is used in situations where two activities have the same starting and finishing nodes or where a single activity connects two or more nodes require no time and no resources Finding the Critical Path and Critical Time o Check exercises & examples page 156-159 2) Project uncertainty and risk management Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times o Task duration (Td) a or lower 1% of the time optimistic o Td b or greater 1% of the time pessimistic o Recommend looking at page 162-165 20 Chapter 6: Allocating Resources to the Project 1) Expediting a Project Critical Path Method: 𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡−𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 o 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 = 𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒−𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 Focus on expensiveness and activities on the critical path Fast-tracking a Project o Construction industry, an expediting technique in which the design and planning phases of a project are not actually completed before the building phase is started. 2) Resource loading Refers to the number of specific resources that are scheduled for use on specific activities or projects at specific times. 4) Allocating Scarce Resources to Projects Some priority rules: o As soon as possible – Activities are scheduled to start on their earliest start times (ES), and resources are made available with that in mind. o As late as possible – Resources are made available so that activities start on their latest start times (LS) whenever possible without increasing the project’s duration preserves the firm’s resources and delays cash outflows if possible. o Shortest task duration first – Always consistent with technological precedence, shorter tasks are given priority over longer tasks maximizes number of tasks that can be completed by a system within a given time period. o Minimum slack first – Tasks are supplied with resources in inverse order of their slacks. This rule usually minimizes the number of late activities. o Most critical followers – The rationale here is that such activities would cause the greatest damage to the desired project schedule if they were late. o Most successors – The same as the previous rule except that all successors are counted. o Most resources first – The greater the use of a specific resource on a task, the higher the task’s priority for the resource. This rule assumes that more important activities have greater demand for scarce resources. 5) Allocating Scarce Resources to Several Projects Criteria of Priority Rules o Schedule slippage measures the amount by which a project or a set of projects is delayed by application of a levelling rule (or by extending a pseudo activity so that a project finishes later because it starts later). 6) Goldratt’s Critical Chain 21 Much research has been done on scheduling with constrained resources, and the findings verify what was expected – projects are completed faster when there are fewer of them struggling for attention from a limited set of facilities. The critical chain – to address the need to consider both precedence relationships and resource dependencies, Goldratt proposes thinking in terms of the longest chain of consecutively dependent tasks where such dependencies can arise from a variety of sources including precedence relationships among the tasks and resource dependencies. definition: the longest chain of consecutively dependent activities. Two potential sources that can delay completion project 1. In the tasks that make up the critical chain, the project buffer protects against these delays 2. In the tasks external to the critical chain. These tasks can also delay the completion of the project if delays in these “feeder” paths end up delaying one or more of the tasks on the critical chain. 22 Chapter 7 – Monitoring and controlling the project Monitoring is the collection, recording and reporting of project information that is of importance to the project manager and other relevant stakeholders. Purpose: ensure all interested parties have available when needed the information required to exercise control over the project using tools. Control uses the monitored data and information to bring actual performance into agreement with the plan. 1.The Plan-Monitor- Control cycle Constitutes a “closed loop” process that continues until the project is completed. Should not be underestimated when used for challenging projects. Designing the Monitoring system – the key is to identify the special characteristics of scope, cost, and time that need to be controlled in order to achieve the project goals as stated in the project plan. 2. Data collection and reporting Data Collecting o Frequency counts: a simple tally of the occurrence of an event o Raw numbers: actual amounts are used, usually in comparison to some expected or planned amount o Subjective numeric ratings: subjective estimates of some quality offered by specialists in the topic, such as ordinal “rankings” of performance. o Indicators and surrogates: used when it is difficult to find a direct measure of a variable. (e.g. Body temperature as an indicator of infection) o Verbal characterizations: other variables that are difficult to measure, such as team spirit. Reporting and Report Types o Routine performance reports should include: Status reports Progress reports Forecasts o All tables, charts, and especially project plans should reflect current reality. o Include “comparables” (previous data from similar project) to better interpret data. o In general, avoid periodic reports except when flow of data is periodic (accounting) another exception is when required by senior management 23 o Three types of reports: Routine Exception - primarily intended for special decisions or unexpected situations in which affected team members and outside managers need to be made aware of change, and the change itself needs to be documented Special analysis – prepared to disseminate the results of a special study in a project concerning a particular opportunity or problem for the project. Meetings o Often face-to-face meetings, these meetings can range from regular, highly formalized and structured presentation/question/answer sessions to informal, off-the-cuff get-togethers. Project review meetings are always important. Hold meetings only for making group decisions or generating input among meeting members for dealing with important problems or opportunities. Virtual meetings – more effective and timely use of project information for planning, monitoring, and communicating. o Virtual project teams are created with members contributing their own pieces of the project and being monitored and controlled by the PM at another location. 3. Earned Value The performance of a task or project cannot be evaluated by considering cost factors alone. The earned value (EV) of a task (project) is the budgeted cost of the work actually performed. Calculated by multiplying the budgeted cost of the task by the percentage of completion of the task and summing over all tasks for the project. There is no satisfactory way to measure accurately the percent of completion of most tasks, let alone to measure accurately the percent of completion of an entire project. 24 Figure 7-5 p.255 1) A negative variance is bad and a positive good 2) The spending and schedule variances are calculated as the earned value minus some other measure. Cost of spending variance = earned valued (EV) – actual cost (AC) Scheduled variance = EV – planned cost (PV) Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV/AC Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = EV/PV values less than 1.0 are undesirable Calculations used when nothing is done to correct the problem. Estimated (remaining cost) to completion (ETC) and the projected (total cost) estimated at completion (EAC). Budget at completion (BAC) ETC = (BAC – EV)/CPI This assumes that the work will be completed at the same level of efficiency or inefficiency as conducted thus far. Total cost to complete the task: EAC = ETC + AC 25 Variance at completion: VAC = BAC – EAC 4. Project Control Control has the primary purpose of ensuring that the project is in compliance with its objectives. Involves both mechanical and human elements, and because it is closely concerned with human behaviour, it is one of the most difficult tasks of the PM. Purposes of Control 1) The stewardship of organizational assets Physical asset control is concerned with the maintenance and use of the project’s physical assets includes the timing as well as the quality of maintenance being conducted on the assets. The stewardship of human resources primarily involves controlling and maintaining the growth and development of the project team. Financial control involves stewardship of the organization’s expenditures on the project, including both conservation of financial resources and regulation of resource use. 2) The regulation of results through the alteration of activities 5. Designing the control system The control system should be cost-effective and should operate with the minimum force required to achieve the desired end results. Three mechanisms: Process reviews – is directed to an analysis of the process of reaching the project objectives rather than on the results. Personnel assignment – based on past project productivity Resource allocation – can be a powerful (de)motivator. Resources are allocated to the more productive or important tasks and this can significantly influence the attainment of project results. Types of Control Systems To control a project requires the following components: o Each control must have a sensor, the duty of which is to measure any aspect of the project’s output that one wishes to control. o The control system must have a standard for each thing measured. o Next, the control system needs a comparator, a mechanism that compares the output of the sensor with the standard. o Given the results of the comparison, the control system needs a decision maker to decide if the difference between what the sensor measured and the standard is large enough to warrant attention. 26 o The final piece required in a control system is an effector. If the decision maker decides that some action is required to reduce the difference between what the sensor measures and the standard requires, the effector must take some action. Some control systems use all five elements automatically = “cybernetic control systems”, “negative feedback loops” or “steering controls” The go/no-go control takes the form of tests (sensors) to determine if some specific precondition (standard and comparator) has been met before permission is granted to continue (decision maker and effector). The “phase-gate” method of monitoring and control (also known as “quality gate,” “toll gate” and other names) often makes use of the natural milestones in a project as phase gates, though some may be ignored or other phases added. Post-controls (aka postperformance reviews) are applied after the project has been completed. Tools for Control Critical ratio – indicates to a manager when a task or process is becoming unacceptable, typically when the ratio drops below 1. CR= (actual progress/schedule progress)x(budgeted cost/actual cost) Note that the two ratios are equally important in the calculation of the critical ratio. If one ratio is bad, it can be offset by the other ratio if it is equally good. For example, if the actual progress is 2 and the scheduled progress is 3, resulting in a schedule ratio of 2/3, and the budgeted cost is 6 and the actual cost is 4, resulting in a cost ratio of 3/2, their product = 2/3 x 3/2 = 1. Thus although the project is behind schedule, the cost is correspondingly below budget so everything is fine if lateness is no problem for this project. Variance analysis Trend projections (figure p.266) Earned Value Analysis Control Charts Benchmarking 6. Scope Creep and Change Control The most common source of changes is the natural tendency of the client, as well as the project team members, so try to improve the project’s output as the project progresses = “scope creep” most common result of a scope creep is an upset client who was not (or claims not to have been) told how long the change would delay the project and how much it would raise the project’s cost. 27 Change control system – a well-controlled, formal process whereby new requirement and need changes can be introduced and accomplished with as little distress as possible. o Purpose is to evaluate each change formally to determine its benefits as well as its costs and other impacts on the project. 28 Chapter 8 – Evaluating and Terminating the Project 1. Evaluation Evaluation criteria: o “success” to date o 1st dimension: project’s efficiency in meeting the budget and schedule o 2nd dimension: customer impact/satisfaction o 3rd dimension: business/direct success: External projects: factors such as the level of commercial success and market share and for internal projects Internal projects: the achievement of the project’s goals such as improved yields or reduced throughput time. o 4th dimension: future potential: establishing a presence in a new market, developing a new technology, and such. Table p. 282 Sufficient for purely routine projects. Nonroutine projects require two more criteria: the project’s contribution to the organization’s unstated goals and objectives the project’s contributions to the objectives of project team members 2. Project Auditing A thorough examination of the management of a project, its methodology and procedures, its records, properties, inventories, budgets, expenditures, progress and so on broader than the traditional management audit. The Audit Process o Early focuses on technical issues o Later focus more on budget and schedule, typically less of value to the project team and of more interest to general management. (postproject audit) 29 o Three levels: o General audit: usually constrained by time and cost and limited to a brief investigation of project essentials. o Detailed audit: often initiated if the general audit finds something that needs further investigation. o Technical audit: usually performed by person/team with special technical skills. Table 8-2 Table 8-3 30 o Typical steps in a project audit are: Familiarize the audit team with the requirements of the project, including its basis for selection and any special charges by upper management Audit the project on-site Write up the audit report in the required format Distribute the report 2. The audit team must have free access to all information relevant to the project. Primary source = project team Needs to understand the politics of the project team, the interpersonal relationships of the team members, and must deal with this confidential knowledge respectfully. Remain neutral and be honest The Audit Report – should be written in a professional, constructive tone. 1. Introduction 2. Current status: compares the work actually completed to the project plan along several measures of performance. 3. Future project status: the auditor’s conclusions regarding project progress and recommendations for changes in technical approach, schedule, or budget 4. Critical management issues: any issues that the auditor feels senior management should monitor. 5. Risk analysis and risk management: the potential for project failure or monetary loss. 6. Final comments: caveats, assumptions, limitations, and information applicable to other projects. 3. Project Termination Has a major effect on the organization’s successful use of projects in the future. When to Terminate a Project o Based on two criteria The degree to which the project has met its goals and objectives The degree to which the project qualifies against a set of factors generally associated with success or failure. (Most common reason is the probability of a a technical or commercial failure) o Four generic factors associated with project success: The efficiency of project execution Customer satisfaction and use Impact on the firm conducting the project Contribution to the firm’s future o Four fundamental reasons associated with project failure: 31 A project was not required for this task in the first place Insufficient support from senior management Naming the wrong project manager (excellent tech skills, weak managerial skills) Poor up-front planning Types of Project Termination o Project extinction occurs when the project activity suddenly stops, although there is still property, equipment, materials and personnel to disburse or reassign. Project terminated because either it was successfully completed or because expectation of failure was too high. Termination by ‘murder’ = characterized by its unexpected suddenness and initiated by events such as the forced retirement of the project’s champion or the merger of the firm conducting the project with another firm. o Termination-by-addition occurs when an “in-house” project is successfully completed, and institutionalized as a new, formal part of the organization. o Termination-by-integration, the output of the project becomes a standard part of the operating systems of the sponsoring firm, or the client. The new software becomes the standard, and the new machine becomes a normal part of the production line. o Termination-by-starvation occurs when it is impolitic to terminate a project but its budget can be squeezed until it is a project in name only. The Termination Process o Termination manager (project undertaker), to complete the long and involved process of shutting down (interring) a project, preferably someone with experience in terminating projects. The Project Final Report o History of the project, following items should be addressed: Project performance – perhaps the most important information is what the project attempted to achieve, what it did achieve, and the reasons for the resulting performance. Administrative performance – administrative practices that worked particularly well, or poorly, should be identified and the reasons given. Organizational structure – projects may have different structures, and the way the project is organized may either aid or hinder the project. Project teamwork – a confidential section of the final report should identify team members who worked particularly well, and possibly those who worked poorly with others. Project management techniques – project success is so dependent on the skill and techniques for forecasting, planning, scheduling, resource allocation, control, risk management, and so on that 32 procedures that worked well or badly should be noted and commented upon. o Fundamental purpose final report = to improve future projects. 33