UKRAINE Background • Crisis in Ukraine carries echoes of the Cold War and resurrects an idea leftover from the 1945 Yalta Conf: That the west should respect a Russian sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe. • Poland ,Hungary and the Czech Republic were allowed to join NATO in 1999 , followed by Bulgaria , Estonia ,Latvia , Romania and Slovakia. • Subjected to post –WW II Soviet domination , the countries were eager to join the Western def alliance and the Western free market system to secure indep and prosperity after the fall of the Iron Curtain(1961-1989 ,ideological split between East and West , communist and capital countries). • Collapse of the Soviet Union – 25 Dec 1991. • Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000 , has worked steadily and systematically to reverse what he views as the humiliating breakup of the Soviet Union 30 yrs ago. • Ukraine , a part of the former Soviet Union , is closely related to Russia. • The proximity is not only geographical association to the erstwhile Soviet Union , but also cultural. • In fact , Russian is spoken by a majority in Ukraine , the second largest country in terms of area in Europe after Russia. • Due to its geographical closeness to the members of the NATO , Russia has always been apprehensive of it joining the Western Alliance. • It also believes that Ukraine may join the NATO due to the Russo –Ukrainian war, that the two have been engaged since the Russian annexation of Crimean Peninsula in 2014. • After Ukrainians overthrew their pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych , Russia moved swiftly to back separatists in Ukraine , who captured large areas of the eastern part of the country , collectively known as the Donbas ,which has the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).DPR ,LPR and Crimea declared their indep from Ukraine in May 2014 after the Ukranian Revolution. • There was Minsk Agreement 2014 ,which had 12 pts and Minsk Agreement 2015 , with 13 pts. • Minsk Agreement 2015 ,was attended by Russia , Ukraine , Org for Security and Co-op in Europe (OSCE) and ldrs of DPR and LPR. • Russia expressed that it is not party to the conflict , but instead a mediator in what it likes to inaccurately label as an exclusively internal Ukrainian conflict. • Ukraine wants to amend the Minsk agreements and its resistance to implementing key pol elements of the agreement. RUSSIA’S DEMANDS • NATO abandon all its military activity in Eastern Europe. • It included the demand for the withdrawal of NATO bns from POLAND and the Baltics. • NATO must never admit Ukraine as a member. • Legal guarantee that the West through NATO or any other org, will desist from expansion further eastward. • Nuc disarmament of the US in Europe. • The demands implied that the US and other NATO members would have to pull out their forces and stop the sup of arms to nations like Poland, Latvia , Slovakia ,Hungary and Lithuania. NORD STREAM 2 PIPELINE • It is new 1200 Km (745 mile) gas pipeline running from Western Russia to north –eastern Germany under the Baltic Sea. • The project is designed to double the amt of natural gas flowing from Russia straight to Germany. • Gas currently flows via the original Nord Stream pipeline , which was completed in 2012. • The pipeline will be able to pump 55 billion cubic meters of gas to Germany each yr. The owner is the Russian state – controlled gas firm Gazprom. • The wk had finished last Sep, but is waiting approval from European regulators before it can open the taps and start pumping gas. • Critics say the pipeline is a tool of Russian foreign policy– and there has been strong opposition from US , Ukraine and Poland. • US fears that the pipeline makes Europe more dependent on Russian Energy. • Ukraine also wants the pipeline stopped . Russia sends much of its gas to Europe through Ukraine but Nord will bypass it. • Ukraine will lose out on the “transit fees”. • Poland is unhappy about being overlooked as a transit country. • Germany badly needs the pipeline’s gas. It could warm 26 million homes and ease the nation’s transition to renewable energy. RESPONSE TO THE DEMANDS • NATO Secy Gen— “It is up to Ukraine and 30(NATO)allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to join the alliance. Russia has no veto , no right to interfere in that process”. Ukraine is a sovereign nation and has the right to self –defense. • Biden has ruled out military intervention to sp Ukraine , and instead has employed intense diplomacy and rallied western allies to sp what he promises will be severe and painful sanctions against Russia if it dares to invade Ukraine. • But , depending on how the sit plays out , he has admitted he could have trouble keeping the allies on board. • US has said that these demands are non- starters , but is ready to discuss other ideas on arms control , msl deployments and other CBM’s. • Meanwhile, Russia is awaiting a written response to its demands after talks held on 21 Jan ,the fourth round this month, produced no results. • Fresh warnings from the US over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as part of the sanctions against Russia ,if it sends tps into Ukraine. • The new pipeline will not go ahead. PUTIN’S ACHIEVEMENTS • Putin’s aim has been to reimpose ties with Russia’s former Soviet neighbors , while challenging and dividing the West. • He seized back eco cont from the Oligarchs , crushed rebels in Chechnya , gradually strangled indep media and upped investment in the mil. More recently , he has banned few human rights orgs. • Disputed election in Belarus ,led to months long demonstrations against longtime Belarusion ldr Alexander Lukashenko. However , he has been driven closer into Putin’s protective embrace. • After the civ unrest in Kazakhstan just weeks ago, Russia sent in tps to help that former Soviet republic’s president restore order as part of a peacekeeping msn of the Russia – led Collective Security Treaty Org (CSTO). • He told an interviewer that “ Liberalism is obsolete”, implying that the dominant Western ideal of liberal democracy no longer has a place in the world. • The idea that Ukrainians are indep and could be freely choosing their own alliances is to him an pretence. • He has insisted that separation of Russia , Ukraine and Belarus into separate states today is artificial. • Due largely to pol mistakes during the Soviet period , and in the case of Ukraine , driven by a malevolent “anti-Russian project” supported by the US since 2014. • His Russo – centric view of the region poses a crucial test for the US President. CURRENT STATUS • Russia denies plans to invade Ukraine but has build –up of an estimated 120,000 tps near the border. • NATO was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets to take all necessary measures to protect and defend allies. • Pentagon ordered 8,500 tps on higher alert to potentially deploy to Europe as part of a NATO “response force”. • Ukranian ldrs sought to reassure the nation that a feared invasion was not imminent , even though the threat is real and are prep to accept mil eqpt. • The challenge for Biden , NATO and the EU is whether their collective resolve and solidarity can protect Ukraine’s vision of itself as part of the West , and whether Putin’s Russian nationalist ambitions in the region will succeed or fail. • Recent events are not just about the Donbas , movement around Crimea is of significant concern. • Water issue in Crimea , after Ukraine blocked a key water channel , is a clear pt of conflict. • Black Sea is an area for potential conflict in view of presence of NATO and Russian forces there , highlighting Crimea’s strat loc. • The UNSC met on 31 Jan to discuss the sit in Ukraine. • Ahead of the mtg , Russia a permt and veto wielding member , called for procedural vote to determine whether the open mtg can go ahead. a • Russia , China voted against the mtg , while India , Gabon and Kenya abstained. • All other 10 council members voted in favour. • India’s stand• Quiet and constructive diplomacy to resolve the issue. • Over 20,000 Indian students and nationals live and study in diff parts of Ukraine. Their well being is of priority to us. • US has expressed that they are ready and aligned with their partners and allies to impose severe costs. • These costs could incl sanctions against key financial institutions , export controls , increased NATO presence in allied territory and security assistance to Ukraine.
