MACROECONOMICS
DEMYSTIFIED:
VIETNAM
PERSPECTIVE
May 2021 – SSI Research
WHERE I’M COMING FROM
SSI:
Vietnam largest stock brokerage
Research & Investment Advisory
Center
PHAM LUU HUNG
1994-1999:
Foreign Trade University
1999-2005:
Ministry of Trade
2006-2007:
University of Sydney
(Master of Economics – First class
honour)
2007-present:
SSI
2
WHY I DON’T HAVE A PHD IN ECONOMICS
Source: Ha Joon Chang
3
WHY MACROECONOMICS ?
It’s all about Economic Cycle (Business Cycle)
Source: Howard Marks
4
ECONOMICS AS A PREDICTIVE SCIENCE
That we can monetize from
Source: Streettalklive.com
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MASTERING ECONOMIC CYCLE IN THE US
Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) from Conference Board would be an instant noodle
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (US). Source: Conference Board
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NOT THAT EASY IN DEVELOPING WORLD
What works for America does not work in developing countries.
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (China). Source: Conference Board
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MACROECONOMICS IN VIETNAMESE STYLE
MONETARY POLICY
Central bank is not independent
No official base rate
Credit growth is capped (at 12-14%)
Inflation targeting is not an option – but price control is.
Exchange rate is tightly managed
CPI basket: A big chunk of food & foodstuff
.
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MACROECONOMICS IN VIETNAMESE STYLE
FISCAL POLICY
Heavy government (a lot of current expenditure)
Public investment is more a seed investment
Quality over quantity
Fiscal discipline is always a problem
.
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QUALITY NEEDED FOR ECONOMIST
Proficiency in Vietnamese:
Fancy wording needs proper translation
Politician vs Economist
Data cleaning is a must: In GSO we trust?
Data provision has a lot of short comings
Timeliness
Quality
Coverage
--
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THE WAY AHEAD: SKY IS THE LIMIT
Big data, AI, private data source….
220
1250
200
180
1150
160
1050
140
.
950
120
100
850
80
750
60
40
650
Mobility Trends index (driving)
VnIndex
VnIndex and Apple Mobility Trends (driving). Source: Bloomberg, Apple
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Q&A SESSION
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