Adaptation of rice cultivation to change in monsoon season in Nepal
Gehendra B. Gurung
Introduction:
Nepal’s monsoon season has changed. Its onset and withdrawal dates have backward shifted from June 10 and
September 23 to June 13 and October 2 respectively. The duration of the season has increased from 106 to 112
days. The future scenarios in short, medium and long-term also show an increase in total precipitation in monsoon
and post-monsoon seasonsi. Rice, the main food grain, is the main crop in monsoon season. It is imperative that
rice cultivation is adapted to the changes in the monsoon season.
The 2021 post-monsoon rainfall and its impact on rice production:
The 2021 monsoon withdrew on October 11, which was 9 days extended beyond the normal withdrawal dateii. But
a post-monsoon rainfall from October 17 to 22 damaged the main season rice at its harvesting stage. Despite an
increase in area by 0.48%, this year’s (2021) main season rice production decreased by 9.52% compared to last
year’s (2020) production. The decrease in production has been considered as the effect of post-monsoon rainfalliii.
The impacts occurred despite two days early warning of rain by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM).
Adaptation of rice cultivation to change in monsoon season:
In this backdrop, this paper pesents three conceptual strategies for adaptation of rice cultivation to changes in
monsoon. First, adjust– planting and harvesting dates with change in the monsoon season. Second promote and
respond to the early warning. Third, develop technologies for minimizing the adverse effects of rain and flood on
rice at harvesting time.
Strategy 1: Adjusting rice cultivation practices to change in monsoon season
Rice cultivation will potentially face shortage of water in the beginning at transplanting stage, and damage of
rainfall at harvesting stage due to backward shift of the monsoon rain. So theoretically the rice cultivation should
shiftback to align with shiftback of monsoon rain. The future potential increase in both monsoon and postmonsoon rainfall may further intensify the effect, especially the effect of increased rainfall during the harvesting
stage. For better understanding of the interaction of change in monsoon with rice cultivation, it is necessary to
start with studies on specific and localized impacts on different activities of rice cultivation at the farm level. Such
activities include raising seedling, transplanting, supplemental irrigation at different growing stages, harvesting and
storage. The impact study should also be carried out for other community and household level activities that have
linkages with rice farming. Some of such activities include moving livestock herds from one grazing zone to
another, collecting, harvesting, processing and using of natural resources, application of water for other crops, and
a range of cultural and social activities and practices. Adaptation would mean concomitant changes in social,
cultural, and economic practices. Since such practices are based on generations, they do not change just like that.
The study should also be carried out on impacts of temperature increase on rice cultivation. The monsoon and
post-monsoon maximum temperatures have increased significantly by 0.058 and 0.056 0C per year during 1971 to
2014 respectivelyiv. The monsoon average temperatures are expected to increase by 0.8, 1.1 and 1.4 0C by 2045,
2065 and 2100 respectively, and the post-monsoon average temperature by 1.3 1.8 and 2.5 0C during the same
periodsi. The study on effects of temperature during the extended period of monsoon is vital to understand
whether the increased temperature will meet the requirement of rice at its grain-filling, ripening and harvesting
stages. The assessment of rainfall and temperature changes should be carried out for different agro-ecological
zones across the altitudinal range.
Improving the understanding of these dynamics will help in making a decision in partnership with the households,
if the rice season should be exended or delayed by certain days. Simulatenously, the changing rainfall pattern
should be assessed to see if the harvesting time coincides with the least post-monsoon rainfall period or avoid the
potentially high post-monsoon rainfall dates. Another important study is identifying the optimum planting dates
for different rice varieties at different agro-ecological zones.
Activities in strategy 1 help achieve the strategies 2 and 3 below, and vice-versa.
Strategy 2: Making early warning effective
Responding to early warnings issued by agencies such as Departnment of Hydrology and Meteology (DHM) is the
second strategy. DHM makes forecasts of rains and disseminate the information via various social platforms. The
weather information is supplemented by a warning to those living along the potential flood prone regions to stay
alert and be careful with agricultural activities. However, this time the information did not get serious attention
from the concerned stakeholders and the farmers. At the time of warning, some farmers were ready to harvest,
some were harvesting and some left the rice crop in the field. Local agencies did not warn the farmers for
protecting the crops. With prior information, farmers could pursue different options such as holding back the crop
harvesting, or collecting and piling up the harvested crops the maximum they could and protect it from rain and
runoff water. Similarly, they could break field bunds and dig trenches to let the rainwater drain out or provide
physical supports to the standing crops so that the plants will not fall down on the ground when the rain or the
wind hit. They could also bind the harvested crops in bundles and keep upright with supports of wooden sticks.
The early warning system (EWS) requires further development to enhance its effectiveness. Lead time of warning
should be increased from two days to at least one week. An effective EWS should provide information of hazard,
exposure, potential impacts and measures to be taken. Information should consist of type of hazard, location, time
and its category and severity level. Information should include population and properties that would be exposed to
the coming hazard and potentially get damaged. Additional information should include level or severity of
potential impacts on specific communities and the assets. The warning should be accompanied by advisories
regarding what measures should be implemented by the communities and the stakeholders before, during and
immediately after the disaster to minimize the level of impact.
Strategy 3: Developing response mechanisms
The third strategy is developing technologies to protect the grain from being damaged due to wet and immerse in
water. Farmers were helpless and support-less this time as they did not get any advice regarding saving the grain
from being more damaged when it was wet. Grains germinated in the plants and farmers received neither advice
nor support to prevent from further germination and damage.
Immediate action could be to drain out the accumulated runoff water from the field. The second could be to bind
the harvested plants in bundle and keep the bundles upright with supports of wooden sticks. The third action
could be to provide physical supports to the fallen down plants to bring them to upright position. It seems the line
agencies were unaware of such techniques or advices. To respond to such uncertain events, there is a need for
effective preparedness, such as stock-keeping of sticks (wooden or metal) to be immediately used and the farmers
provided with capacity building and skill development supports. Because of climate change, such events can
frequently take place with more severity and uncertainty.
There is a need to reduce the duration of exposure of harvested grains to potential adverse weather condition.
This can be done by use of appropriate “combined harvesting and threshing machine” that transfers the grains
from plants to bins. They must fit in hill terrains as well. More research is needed to find out rice varieties that do
not germinate while the grains are wet in the plant or on the ground for certain days. Indeed it is equally important
to distill lessons from past reaseach and take them to the farmers in a language they understand.
Conclusion
The change in onset and withdrawal dates, and duration and amount of monsoon rains will impact Nepal’s main
season rice production. Therefore the rice cultivation practices have to adaptat to such changes. Adaptation means
not only adjusting the natural sequences but also the social practices to observed and potential climate changes.
The adaptive measures should strategically use science-based knowledge, prepare farmers and build institutions to
adapt to the changes in monsoon character. Building the capacity of farmers and service providers with
technology, finance and institutional supports are impotant for effectively adapting rice cultivation practices to
changes in the monsoon. The longer we fail to do so the greater will be the damages.
Given the pace of changes, it is likely that the impact will be disproportionate on Nepal’s 66% of the population
(household???) involved in agriculture. This population has different levels of social context, access to basic
services and capacity. This mean that they will face the impacts differently and will govern how they can
successfully adapt to the impacts. Blanket adaptation strategies will not work.
Biography:
Gehendra B Gurung has professional work experience of over 35 years. In the last 15 years, he has worked on
exploring the link between Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). He has
contributed to the understanding of community-based adaptation practices and bringing the learning to policy
making process. He was also involved in the development of early flood warning systems in Nepal. Gehendra B
Gurung is currently engaged furthering the link between CCA and DRR through studies and practical applications.
i
ii
iii
iv
MoFE, 2019. Climate change scenarios for Nepal for National Adaptation Plan (NAP). Ministry of Forests and
Environment, Kathmandu
https://twitter.com/DHM_FloodEWS/status/1447793001602826241
Press release regarding the production of rice. December 31, 2020, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock
Development, Nepal
DHM, 2017. Observed Climate Trend Analysis in the Districts and Physiographic Regions of Nepal (1971-2014).
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Kathmandu