AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com
WEEK
48
fruitmarket@cirad.fr
2017
EUROPEAN MARKET— Overview
EU Reference Price—Hass grade 18
W48
W48/ W47 2017 / 2016
13.10
€ / 4 kg box
- 0.15 €
+9%
EU - REF EREN C E P RIC E HASS GRADE 1 8
16,00
14,00
euro / 4 kg box
Despite a sluggish atmosphere, the avocado market remains
well-oriented. Following a month of November heavily supplied (+13%/2016), overall Hass volumes have begun to decline, reaching levels below 2016 (-9%). Indeed, the supply
pattern has changed as Chilean deliveries have finally further
tended down. The peak of deliveries has ended and volumes
have dropped significantly, reaching levels below 2016 (-8%).
Thus, developing Mediterranean seasons have not been sufficient to offset the Chilean decrease: Spanish deliveries have
accelerated but Israeli volumes have stabilized at levels below
2016 (-33%). Besides, Mexican deliveries have punctually decreased, recovering levels below 2016 (-13%). Nevertheless,
the atmosphere has remained sluggish. Indeed, sales at retailers have just maintained a steady pace while a very limited
demand has been registered on the wholesale segment. Moreover, some stocks have remained available on the market. In
this context, all prices have continued to erode but levels have
remained well above average.
For green varieties, volumes have slightly tended down, recovering average levels, as the transition between Ettinger and
Pinkerton/Fuerte from Israel is ongoing. Moreover, demand has
remained dynamic thus, prices have firmed up, keeping high
levels.
13,75
13,50
13,25
13,10
w45
w46
w47
w48
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
Global European supply—w 48
EU - GL O BA L HA SS SUP P L Y TREN D
LEVEL OF STOCKS
30%
Average last 3 weeks 2017
/ 2016
20%
Some stocks available,
especially on medium and
small grades.
18%
10%
0%
w45 - w47
w46 - w48
Average last 3 seasons of
the annual consumption
growth
Market share of suppliers in EU
(Green & Hass)
Accumulated supply
Variety Trend
Observation
Total year
2017
(million
boxes)
Comparison with
year 2016
Comparison with
year 2015
Hass

Sharp decrease of the global offer, reaching levels
below 2016 (-9%) due to the further decline of
Chilean deliveries.
89 253
+ 17 %
+ 37 %
Green
=
Stable offer, levels close to the average.
16 136
-7%
- 12 %
Spain
12%
Other
11%
Chile
47%
Israel
23%
Mexico
7%
This document
produced
by the
Markets
News
Content
published bywas
the Market
News Service
of CIRAD
− All
rights Service
reserved of the PERSYST department at CIRAD, for the exclusive use of subscribers. The data presented are
from reliable sources, but CIRAD may not be held responsible for any error or omission. Under no circumstances may the published prices be considered to be
transaction prices. Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market trends and evolutions. This publication is protected by copyright, and all rights
of reproduction and distribution are prohibited.
1
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com
WEEK
48
fruitmarket@cirad.fr
2017
EUROPEAN MARKET— Trend
Import prices in Europe (FOT)
Hass
in euro /
4 kg box
Chile
Mexico
Green varieties
Israel
Spain
Israel
(Ettinger)
Colombia
Israel
(Pinkerton)
Israel
(Arad)
15.00 / 15.50
=↘
Grade 12
Grade 14 13.00 / 14.00 =
13.00 / 14.00
=
10.00 =
(8.00) 8.50 /
15.00 / 15.50
=↘
9.50 =↗
10.00 /
11.00
8.50 / 9.00
(10.00)
10.00 =
10.00 =
13.00 / 13.50
(14.00) =↘
13.50 / 14.00
(15.00) =↘
15.00 / 15.50
=↘
(12.00)
(8.00) 8.50 /
13.00 / 14.00
9.50 =↗
=↘
10.00 /
11.00
8.50 / 9.00
(10.00)
(12.00) 12.50 / (12.00) 12.50 /
13.50 =↘
13.50 =↘
13.00 / 13.50
=↘
14.00 / 14.50
=↘
12.00 / 13.00 (8.00) 8.50 /
=↘
9.50 =↗
10.00 /
11.00
8.50 / 9.00
(10.00)
11.00 / 12.00
↘
11.50 / 13.00
=↘
13.00 / 13.50
=↘
(10.00)
11.00 / 12.00
Grade 22
9.50 / 10.50 ↘ 9.50 / 10.50 ↘
10.50 / 11.00
↘
9.00 / 10.50
↘
Grade 24
8.00 / 9.50 ↘
8.00 / 9.50 ↘ 9.50 / 10.50 ↘
8.00 / 9.50 ↘
Grade 16
Grade 18
Grade 20
13.00 / 13.50
(14.00) =↘
11.00 / 12.00
↘
Spain
(Fuerte)
* ( ) : lowest or highest price, out of average prices
EU - REF EREN C E P RIC E G R E E N A V O C A D O G R A D E 16/ 18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
euro / 4 kg box
euro/ 4 kg box
EU - REF EREN C E P RIC E H A S S G R A D E 18
2017
2016
2015
2014
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2017
2016
2015
2014
This document
produced
by the
Markets
News
Content
published bywas
the Market
News Service
of CIRAD
− All
rights Service
reserved of the PERSYST department at CIRAD, for the exclusive use of subscribers. The data presented are
from reliable sources, but CIRAD may not be held responsible for any error or omission. Under no circumstances may the published prices be considered to be
transaction prices. Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market trends and evolutions. This publication is protected by copyright, and all rights
of reproduction and distribution are prohibited.
2
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com
WEEK
48
fruitmarket@cirad.fr
2017
EUROPEAN MARKET— Trend
Global European supply—Detailed by sources
Accumulated supply
Trend
Last 3 weeks
supply
2017 / 2018
Observation
↘↘ Hass
+ 30 %
Sharp decrease, recovering levels below
2016 (-8%).
14 165 000
+ 26 %
+ 69 %
Mexico
↘ Hass
+ 16 %
Punctual decline, reaching levels below
2016 (-13%).
2 244 000
- 2%
- 14 %
Israel
= Hass
= Green
-4%
Stable deliveries of green varieties at average levels. Stable arrivals of Hass at levels
below 2016 (-33%).
3 279 000
-1%
+ 34 %
Spain
=↗ Hass
=↘ Green
-
Developing season of Hass. Slightly lower
volumes of Fuerte.
-
-
-
= Hass
-
Stable arrivals.
-
-
-
Origin
Chile
Colombia
Total season
2017/18
(boxes)
Comparison Comparison
with season with season
2016/17
2015/16
Retail prices—FRANCE
Comparison with
Week 47
Average 3
years
Week 48
Packed
0,79 € / piece

+9%
Loose
1,43 € / piece
=
+ 18 %
% ofd supermarkets doing
promotions
Promotional frequency
on the French market
25%
20%
15%
10%
Source : RNM
5%
0%
2017 / 2018
2016 / 2017
2015 / 2016
2014 / 2015
Source RNM
France - Average retail prices
Packed avocados
France - Average retail prices
Loose avocados
0,80
1,50
euro / kg
euro / kg
0,60
0,40
0,20
1,00
0,50
0,00
0,00
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
2017 / 2018
Source RNM
2016 / 2017
2015 / 2016
2014 / 2015
2017 / 2018
Source RNM
2016 / 2017
2015 / 2016
2014 / 2015
3
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com
WEEK
48
fruitmarket@cirad.fr
2017
EUROPEAN MARKET— Forecast
The avocado market should completely shift towards a tenser situation by the end of the year.
On the one hand, sales should accelerate due to the upcoming programs and promotions of the Christmas period. Indeed, importers have already established their programs that should begin by w50. On the other hand,
the global Hass supply should remain moderate and below 2016 : Chilean volumes will stabilize at levels below
2016 until mid December. Furthermore, the origin should significantly slowdown during the second part of the
month: the export potential forecast is similar to 2016 and the season is running ahead of schedule thus, the
remaining volumes should be almost 50 % lower than 2016. Besides, volumes of Mediterranean suppliers
should only accelerate to reach their cruising speed at the end of the year/beginning of 2018. Moreover, both
Spain and Israel have forecasted lighter seasons than 2016-17 (-20% for Spain, -25/30% for Israel). In this context, other suppliers (Morocco, Colombia and Mexico) which have forecasted higher crops should not be able
to entirely compensate for the lack of volumes.
For the green varieties, the last batches of Ettinger from Israel should enter the market in w48.
Import prices in Europe (FOT)
Global European supply
Variety
Trend
Observation
Variety
Trend
Observation
Green

Decreasing Israeli volumes due
to the expected deficit of Pinkerton/Fuerte/Arad.
Green
=
Firm prices.
Hass
=
Stable Chilean volumes at levels below 2016.
Hass
=
Upward trend of prices.
EU - GL O BA L HA SS SUP P L Y TREN D
You can find more information on
30%
Average last 3
weeks 2017 /
2016
25%
20%


18%

15%

10%
Avocado forecast for winter season
2017-18
Mediterranean Hass crop forecast
World avocado statistics
Avocado monthly market review
Average last 3
seasons of the
annual
consumption
growth
5%
0%
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
w45 - w47 w46 - w48 w47 - w49
4
WEEK
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com
48
fruitmarket@cirad.fr
2017
US MARKET— Overview
The global supply in the US market has further tended
down, keeping levels below average (-16%) but just recovering levels similar to 2016. First, Mexican deliveries
have further decreased, recovering levels similar to last
year. Chilean volumes have continued to tend down, still
exhibiting levels below 2016 as the peak of arrivals has
taken place earlier than last year. In this context, prices
on the spot market for Mexican fruits have recovered an
upward trend, above 2016.
USDA Reference Price in the USA
Spot market—Hass grade 48
W48
W48 / W47 2017 / 2016
33.25
$ / 11.15 kg lug
+6$
+ 14 %
Source: USDA
AVE R AG E PR ICE S IN TH E E U AND U S A
EQU IVAL EN T
IMP O RT P RIC E O N THE SP O T MA RKET
G RAD E 1 8 , SP OT M ARK ET, IN
EU ROS
HA SS - G RA DE 48 - I N DO LLA R
100
25
20
13,10
15
10
10,05
5
80
$ / 11,15 kg lug
euro / 4 kg box
30
60
40
20
0
0
Source
:
USDA /
Cirad
USA Import price - Hass Grade 48 (equivalent grade 18)
EU Import price - Hass grade 18
2017
Source : USDA
2014
2015
2016
Global US supply
GL O BA L SUP P L Y TO THE US MA RKET
Market share of suppliers in the USA
30
25
Thousand tonnes
Chile
6%
Mexico
94%
20
15
10
5
0
Source : HAB
Source : HAB
2 017
Variety
Trend
Last 3 W
supply /
average
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
Hass

-2%
2 016
2 015
2 014
Accumulated supply
Observation
Sharp decrease, recovering
levels similar to 2016.
Total year
2017 (tons)
878 990
Comparison Comparison
with
with
year 2016
year2015
-4%
-1%
5