RUSSIAN UKRAINIAN WAR
AND ITS IMPACT ON US
Bonus Lesson
Lesson Objectives
By the end of this lesson, I will be able to:
1. Identify the three different groups involved
in the Russia-Ukraine war
2. Describe the different perspectives and
viewpoints of all sides
3. Explain how this could impact our future
When the War Began
 Early on the morning of Feb. 24 in
Ukraine, Russian troops poured over the
border, and Russian planes and missile
launchers attacked Ukrainian cities and
airports. The attacks spanned much of the
country, far beyond the border provinces
where there has been sporadic fighting
between the nations for years.
 Ukraine’s government called it “a full-scale
attack from multiple directions.”
Putin has broken a near taboo (law) against gaining
land and territory by force (armies) since WWII which
could start a chain effect.
Soviet Union, in full Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.)
 Ukraine was one of the 15 separate
republics that made up the Soviet Union
until the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991
 Crimean Peninsula was aprt of Russian
republic until 1954 when Soviet leadership
transferred it to Ukrainian republic
 Many ethnic Russians still live in Ukraine,
especially in the Eastern part of the country
including Crimean Peninsula
 Traditionally, Ukraine has had closer ties to
Moscow than other countries in the USSR
Ukraine is
Europe’s
second
largest
country by
land area and
seventh
largest by
population.
Ukrainians Want Donbas to Remain Part of Ukraine;
Russians Want It to Secede
 Thinking about the future of the Luhans’k and Donets’k regions, would you prefer that they …
Remain part of Ukraine on
11%
same terms as before crisis
21
Remain part of Ukraine with
greater autonomy from Kyiv
35
Become independent states
24
4
2
10
Become part of Russia
10
Don't know
Ukraine
Russia
51%
33
Note: In Russia, question read “Thinking about the future of the self-declared republics of Luhans’k and Donets’k ...”
March 28, 2022
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NATO AND Ukraine
 Nato - the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization - is a military alliance
formed in 1949 by 12 countries,
including the US, Canada, the UK and
France.
 Its aim was originally to counter the
threat of post-war Russian expansion
in Europe.
 Soviet Russia responded by creating
its own military alliance of eastern
European communist countries,
called the Warsaw Pact.
Why isn’t Ukraine a member of NATO
 Nato offered Ukraine a path towards membership in 2008. After Russia's annexation
of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine made joining a priority.
 But this hasn't happened, mainly because of Russia's long-standing opposition.
 One of Russia's demands before the invasion was that Ukraine should never be
allowed to join - something the alliance refused to support.
 Russia fears Nato is encroaching on its territory by taking on new members from
eastern Europe, and that admitting Ukraine would bring its forces into its backyard.
 Ukraine's President Zelensky has accepted his country can't join Nato at present,
saying: "It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of Nato. We understand this."
Why isn't Nato sending troops to Ukraine?
• Because Ukraine isn't a Nato member,
the alliance isn't obliged to come to the
country's defence.
• NATO countries fear that if their troops
confront Russian forces in Ukraine, it
could lead to an all-out conflict between
Russia and the West.
• Nato says its members are "determined
to do all we can to support Ukraine," but
must ensure the war doesn't escalate
beyond its borders.
European NATO Members Reluctant to Use Force to
Defend Allies
 If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,
 do you think our country should use military force to defend that country?
56%
U.S.
53%
Canada
EU median
Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
48%
15
Many NATO Members Oppose Supplying Ukraine with Arms Against Russia
 In response to the situation involving Russia and Ukraine, do you __ NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian
gov’t?
Oppose
Poland
36%
U.S.
44
45
France
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46
41
UK
42
59
Spain
66
Italy
65
MEDIAN
MEDIAN
50%
43
Canada
Germany
Support
40
25
22
77
19
52
41
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Key NATO Countries Reluctant to Use Force to Defend Allies
 If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,
 do you think our country should or should not use military force to defend that country?
Should not
U.S.
37%
Canada
36
UK
37
Poland
49
48
48
53
Italy
MEDIAN
53
47
France
March 28, 2022
56%
34
Spain
Germany
Should
47
51
40
58
38
42
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17
Putin Takes Action
 Putin says the upheaval in Urkaine is a threat to
Russian and Russian citizens in Ukraine, and he
needs to protect them.
 People think Putin is trying to bring back the Soviet
Union:






Benefits of the Soviet Union for Russia
More land
Double the population
Eastern parts of USSR were western-leaning democracies
Would stop the US from being the sole super power
Russia has continually had to involve in affairs of former countries
of the USSR (e.g. sent troops to Georgia to stop conflict.)
Russians Express Growing Pride in Russia,
Confidence in Putin in International Affairs
100 %
Start of unrest
in Ukraine
66
A lot of confidence in Putin
52
47
63
51
42
46
37
Very favorable view of Russia
0
2007
2009
29
2011
2013
2015
19
THE IMPACTS
 The largest shocks to the worldwide economy will likely be in the gas and oil markets.
Europe relies heavily on its energy needs from Russia, and more than a third of
Russia’s gas exports flow through Ukraine. As of Thursday afternoon, oil prices topped
$100 a barrel for the first time in more than seven years. Some experts predict that
consumers may see gas prices rise to more than $4 per gallon.
Poland Most Worried about Russian Military Threat
 How much of a military threat, if at all, is Russia to its neighboring countries, aside from Ukraine?
Major threat
Minor threat
Not a threat
Poland
70%
UK
53
France
Germany
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8
38
44
10
34
38
15
48
U.S.
Canada
7
40
49
Italy
4%
36
51
Spain
19%
59
44
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33
42
4
8
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THE PERSPECTIVES OF THE
DIFFERENT SIDES
25
RUSSIAN VIEWS
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Views of Russian Economy Souring
 How would you describe the current economic situation in Russia?
100%
Bad
83
76
73
64
56
50
50
44
38
32
20
13
0
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2002
2007
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Good
2012
2015
27
Russians Blame Sanctions and Falling Oil Prices for Economic Woes
 Which one of the following is causing the most harm to our economy?
33%
33
Falling oil prices
25
Current gov't econ policies
8
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Western sanctions
None (VOL)/Don’t know
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Russians Overwhelmingly Support Putin’s Foreign and Domestic Policies
 Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Vladimir Putin is handling …
Disapprove
Relations w/ China
4%
85
13
Relations w/ Ukraine
83
11
Relations w/ EU
82
14
Energy policy
73
23
Economy
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90%
10
Relations w/ U.S.
Corruption
Approve
70
29
62
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Russian Views of Western
Powers
Plummet
 Russian
who have
a favorable view of …
100 %
79
61
78
64
62
56
63
51
50
37
30
35 Germany
27
31 EU
15 U.S.
12 NATO
0
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2002
2007
2011
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2013
2015
30
UKRAINIAN VIEWS
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Surveying Ukraine in 2015
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Western Ukrainians Increasingly
Critical of Kyiv
 Kyiv government is a bad influence
2014
2015
%
%
42
59
+17
West
28
54
+26
East
59
65
+6
Ukraine
Change
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
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Ukrainians Want
Assistance from West
 Do you support or oppose __ for our country?
Oppose
Getting economic aid
from Western countries
Support
17%
71%
22
Joining the EU
67
Getting arms
from NATO
32
54
Joining NATO
32
53
Joining the
Eurasian Economic 72
Union with Russia
12
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
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Eastern Ukrainians Favor Negotiations Over Military Force
 To end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which one of the following solutions do you think is best?
Use military force
23%
Ukraine
19%
31
West
East
Both/Neither (VOL)
13
Negotiate a settlement
47%
17
22
40
56
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
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