INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS IN CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE CCJS 200 Spring Semester 2015 Inspiring Thoughts That Guide This Class: “Roses are red, violets are blue I’m schizophrenic, and so am I.” Oscar Levant “Reality is just a crutch for people who can’t cope with drugs.” Robin Williams “You’ve got bad eating habits if you use a grocery cart in the 7-Eleven.” Dennis Miller “Frisbeetarianism is the belief that when you die your soul goes up on the roof and gets stuck”. George Carlin Professor: Ray Paternoster Office Hours: Tu. & Th. 9-11 and 2-3 (Other hours by appointment) 2129 Lefrak Hall Phone: (301)405-4724 rpaterno@umd.edu Teaching Assistants Danielle Ehrnstein Office Hours: Monday 1:30 - 3:00; Tuesday 10:30 - 12:30 Friday 12:00 - 1:00 (or by appointment) Discussion Sections 0202, 0203, 0206 2163 Lefrak Hall Phone: (301) 405-1709 ehrnstei@umd.edu Emily Glazener Office Hours: Wednesday 12:30 - 2:00; Thursday 10:30 - 12:30; Friday 11:00 – 12:00 (or by appointment) Discussion Sections 0201, 0204, 0205 2163 Lefrak Hall Phone: (301) 405-1709 glazener@umd.edu COURSE DESCRIPTION This course is an introduction to descriptive and inferential statistics. As an introductory course the expectation is that we cannot go in to any great detail in to many statistical procedures and therefore you will want to supplement this class with one or more subsequent statistics courses. Our goal is to provide a basic foundation for descriptive and inferential statistics that you will build upon later. In sum, we want to put some statistical “tools” in your toolbox with the understanding Page | - 1 - that you will likely need and want more tools later. After this course, however, you will be able to do and read about common statistical procedures as well as create and understand statistical analysis as it applies to problems in the area of criminology and criminal justice. We will use statistical procedures to study problems and answer questions where these problems and questions pertain to crime and the criminal justice system. COURSE PREREQUISITES It is expected that you have taken and passed MATH 111 or higher or its equivalent (Introduction to Probability) as well as CCJS 100 or CCJS 105 (Introduction to Criminal Justice or Introduction to Criminology). You will also need a calculator and some proficiency in using a calculator (it does not have to be, and probably should not be, a graphing calculator but one with square and square root keys would be very helpful). COURSE TEXTBOOK Required Course Text Ronet Bachman and Ray Paternoster 2008 Statistics for Criminology and Criminal Justice (3nd Edition). McGraw-Hill Publishing. COURSE WORK The best way to learn how to do statistical procedures is to practice, practice, and then practice some more. Only for the rare (and, frankly, geeky) person (such as myself) is statistical analysis something that can be picked-up easily and without much effort. I strongly encourage you to read the assigned chapters ahead of class, and you should answer each of the questions at the back of the chapter after you have read it. The answers to the chapter problems are provided for you in your book, but only look at them after you have solved or attempted to solve the problem on your own. There are also practice problems (and answers to those problems) for you to work on for each chapter that can be found on the class website. In addition, you should attend your assigned discussion group that meets weekly. In this discussion group your TA will be answering questions you may have from the lecture and going over problems and the interpretation of problems that were covered in class during the previous week. COURSE GRADING There will be five (5) exams during the semester with each exam counting twenty percent toward your final grade. The last exam is the final exam and will cover some new material as well as material from throughout the course. Each of the exams are problem solving exams where you will have to calculate statistics using formulas and interpret their meaning in order to solve the problem. I will provide you with a formula sheet to refer to for each exam so there is no need to memorize formulas. The final exam is scheduled for Tuesday, May 19th from 1:30 – 3:30. Final course grades will be assigned according to the following scale: A+ 97% - 100% A 93% - 96% A90% - 92% B+ 87% - 89% Page | - 2 - B BC+ C CD+ D DF 83% - 86% 80% - 82% 77% - 79% 73% - 76% 70% - 72% 67% - 69% 63% - 66% 60% - 62% 0% - 59% POLICY ON EXAMINATIONS Exams must be taken on the assigned day that it is scheduled unless you have given me a valid, written doctor’s excuse and you must make arrangements either with me or with your teaching assistant within three days before the exam to make up the missed exam. If you are sick the night before the exam then you need to call me or your TA before the exam on the day of the exam (leaving a message is ok). A phone call to me or one of the teaching assistants after the exam saying that you missed it is not a valid excuse. A health center honor statement is not valid either unless the note is from a doctor or is a copy of your medical record that confirms you were or will be physically/mentally unable to take the exam. STAYING IN TOUCH WITH THE CLASS WITH ELMS The course uses a web-based tool called ELMS to provide you with easy and anytime access to all information and notices about the class. In order to access this class information you must first be registered for the class. Once registered you use your LDAP ID and password to log onto the website. This website will contain a wealth of information about the class such as a copy of this syllabus, practice exams, and extra-problems to work on for practice. This web site also will contain important class announcements. You can also access your grades (but not those of others) through ELMS once they are posted. WE WOULD STRONGLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO ACCESS THE CLASS WEB SITE ON A REGULAR BASIS. The site address is: http://elms.umd.edu. There is an online tutorial to help you or if you need additional assistance please do not hesitate to ask your discussion group leader for help. MATH ASSISTANCE Let’s face it, if you were good at math you would most likely be a hard science or engineering major. Many of you do not think you are good at math (though you are very likely “good enough”) or you have an unnatural and ungodly fear of mathematics. Unfortunately there is some math in this class. Good News # 1, it is minor math. Good News #2, there is help. If you think you are shaky at math then read and work on the math review in Appendix A of your text book. You can also get help from the university through its “Math Success Program”. Visit the Math Success Center online at: http://www.resnet.umd.edu/programs/math_success/ ACADEMIC INTEGRITY Academic dishonesty of any form will absolutely NOT be tolerated. The University of Maryland, College Park has a nationally Recognized Code of Academic Integrity, administered by the Student Page | - 3 - Honor Council. This Code sets standards for academic integrity at Maryland for all undergraduate and graduate students. As a student you are responsible for upholding these standards for this course. The Student Honor Council proposed and the University Senate approved an Honor Pledge. The University Honor Pledge reads: “I pledge on my honor that I have not given or received any unauthorized assistance on this assignment/examination.” Students will be asked to sign the University approved Honor Pledge on each exam. DISABILITY SUPPORT I will make every effort to accommodate students who are registered with the Disability Support Services (DSS) Office and who provide me with a University of Maryland DSS Accommodation form which has been updated for the Fall 2009 semester. This form must be presented to me no later than September 15, 2014. I am not able to accommodate students who are not registered with DSS or who do not provide me with documentation that has not been reviewed by DSS after September 15, 2014. DSS students who are requesting to take their exams at the DSS Center need to provide me with a testing form for each exam that must be turned in to me no later than 1 week prior to each exam. The student is expected to take the exam at the same time as the rest of the class. RELIGIOUS OBSERVANCES If you are unable to take the any exams due to a religious observance, you will need to discuss this with me a week before the exam. CLASSROOM CODE OF CONDUCT The success of this class is dependent not only on my abilities and talents as an instructor to communicate new and complicated ideas, but also on our ability as a class to work together to create an environment conducive to learning. As a Department and University, we expect the faculty and students to be prepared for class and to be actively engaged in the classroom activities. Unfortunately, disruptive behaviors in the classroom cheat other students out of their opportunity to learn. The University of Maryland’s Code of Academic Integrity defines classroom disruption as “behavior a reasonable person would view as substantially or repeatedly interfering with the conduct of a class.” Examples would include coming late to class, repeatedly leaving and entering the classroom without authorization, making loud or distracting noises, and persisting in speaking without being recognized. As the instructor of this class, I also find the following distracting: reading outside material, making arm farts, sleeping, loud side conversations with your neighbor who most likely knows less than you do. Also strongly discouraged are: text messaging and using laptops for non-academic functions (IM, e-mail, surfing, etc.). I also request that you turn cell phones/pagers on vibrate or silent during class, and though likely compelled to, please kindly refrain from applauding after the end of each lecture as it embarrasses me and will only serve to dampen the self-esteem of the next instructor. Students are expected to treat each other with respect. Disruptive behavior of any kind will not be tolerated. Students who are unable to show civility with one another, the teaching assistants, or me will be subject to referral to the Office of Page | - 4 - Student Conduct or to Campus Police. You are expected to adhere to the Code of Student Conduct. COURSE EVALUATION Your feedback about this course and how I have done is very important to me. Completing a course evaluation is also part of what it means to be a member of the UMD academic community. At the end of the semester I very much would like you to fill out the online course evaluation. I want to bring to your attention information about the fall course evaluation process. CourseEvalUM will be open for you to complete your course evaluation from December 2nd to December 14th. You can go directly to the website at: (https://www.courseevalum.umd.edu/) to complete your evaluation. WARNING!!! This will be a very difficult class for many of you. It is particularly important, therefore, that you not wait until the exam to do the readings. It is critical that you keep up with the readings and do the problems at the back of each chapter in addition to practice problems. If you find yourself struggling or falling behind, let me or your discussion group leaders know and we will do everything we can to help you. But it is important that you do this early rather than late, it is much, much too difficult to catch up! It is also important that you attend the discussion group meetings because it is here where you will get practice in working the problems covered in class. Page | - 5 - COURSE SCHEDULE READING ASSIGNMENT Chapters 1 DAY Tuesday DATE 1/27 TOPIC Introduction Sampling, Key Statistical Terms And Levels of Measurement Thursday 1/29 Data Distributions Simple Descriptions of Data Chapter 2 Tuesday 2/3 Graphical Presentations of Data Chapter 3 Thursday 2/5 Measures of Central Tendency Chapter 4 Tuesday 2/10 Measures of Central Tendency Chapter 4 Thursday 2/12 Measures of Dispersion Chapter 5 Tuesday 2/17 Measures of Dispersion Chapter 5 Thursday 2/19 FIRST EXAMINATION Tuesday 2/24 Probability Theory Chapter 6 Thursday 2/26 Probability Theory & Hypothesis Testing Chapter 6 Tuesday 3/3 Point Estimation Chapter 7 Thursday 3/5 Confidence Intervals Chapter 7 Tuesday 3/10 One Population Mean Tests Chapter 8 Thursday 3/12 One Population Proportion Tests Chapter 8 Tuesday 3/24 SECOND EXAMINATION Thursday 3/26 Hypothesis Tests with Categorical Data I Chapter 9 Tuesday 3/31 Hypothesis Tests with Categorical Data Part II Chapter 9 Page | - 6 - READING ASSIGNMENT DAY DATE TOPIC Thursday 4/2 Two Population Hypothesis Tests Part I – Independent Samples Chapter 10 Tuesday 4/7 Two Population Hypothesis Tests Part I – Independent Samples Chapter 10 Thursday 4/9 THIRD EXAMINATION Tuesday 4/14 Two Population Hypothesis Tests Part II – Dependent or Matched Samples Thursday 4/16 Two Population Hypothesis Tests Part III – Proportions Tests Tuesday 4/21 Three or More Population Tests: Analysis of Variance Chapter 11 Thursday 4/23 Three or More Population Tests: Analysis of Variance Chapter 11 Tuesday 4/28 FOURTH EXAMINATION Thursday 4/ Correlation Tuesday 5/5 Thursday 5/7 OLS Regression Chapter 12 Tuesday 5/12 Introduction to Multivariate Regression Chapter 13 Tuesday 5/19 FINAL EXAMINATION FROM 1:30 – 3:30 IN THIS VERY ROOM Ordinary Least Squares Regression Chapter 10 Chapter 10 Chapter 12 Chapter 12 Page | - 7 -