Equity Investment – I © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. Mapping to Curriculum Reading 33: Market Organization and Structure Reading 34: Security Market Indices Reading 35: Market Efficiency © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 2 Reading 33: Market Organization and Structure © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 3 Learning Outcomes The candidate should be able to: a. Explain the main functions of the financial system; b. Describe classifications of assets and markets; c. Describe the major types of securities, currencies, contracts, commodities, and real assets that trade in organized markets, including their distinguishing characteristics and major subtypes; d. Describe types of financial intermediaries and services that they provide; e. Compare positions an investor can take in an asset; f. Calculate and interpret the leverage ratio, the rate of return on a margin transaction, and the security price at which the investor would receive a margin call; g. Compare execution, validity, and clearing instructions; h. Compare market orders with limit orders; i. Define primary and secondary markets and explain how secondary markets support primary markets; j. Describe how securities, contracts, and currencies are traded in quote-driven, order-driven, and brokered markets; k. Describe characteristics of a well-functioning financial system; l. Describe objectives of market regulation. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 4 Financial System and its Functions Any financial system would encapsulate the markets and different financial intermediaries that facilitate the transfer of financial assets, real assets, and financial risks in various forms from one person to another, from one location to another, and from one time period to another. The 3 main functions of the financial system are to facilitate: 1. 2. The achievement of the 6 purposes for which people use the financial system, which are as follows: a) To save money for the future; b) To borrow money for current use; c) To mop up equity capital; d) To handle risks; e) To transfer assets for current and future deliveries; and f) To use information for trading. The discovery of the equilibrium rate of return: • © EduPristine This is the rate that equates the total supply of savings with the total demand for borrowings. For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 5 Financial System and its Functions 3. The allocation of capital with its best uses: • This focuses on the balancing of risk and return and allocation of funds, which has the highest return for a given risk. When the financial system is well-functioning and the transaction costs would be minimum, the analysts would be able to value savings and investments. This would help in the efficient use of scarce capital resources. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 6 Different Assets Categories Securities Debt Securities 1 2 Financial Assets Real Assets Derivatives Currencies Pooled Investments Money Market Real Estate Future Forward Insurance Swap Credit Default Swap Options Equity Securities © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 7 Commodities Overview of Different Type of Markets 1. Spot Market – Delivery is immediate. 2. Forward Market – Delivery is in the future. 3. Primary Market – Issuers sell securities to investors and there is cash inflows to the company. 4. Secondary Market – Investors sell to other investors and there is no cash inflows to the company. 5. Money Market – Debt instruments mature in < = 1 year. 6. Capital Market – Equity + Debt instruments with maturities > 1 year. 7. Traditional Investment Market – Publicly traded debt, equity, and shares are in the pooled investment vehicles. 8. Alternative Investment Market – This includes hedge funds, private equity, commodities, real estate, and precious gems. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 8 Important Notes – Different Assets Categories Pooled investments are mutual funds (including ETFs), trusts, depositories, and hedge funds, which would issue financial securities that would signify shared ownership in the assets that are held by these entities. Currencies are monies issued by the monetary authorities of approximately 175 countries; and some countries may be held by the Governments of a different country as a reserve currency— Dollar, Euro and GBP, Yen, and Franc. Credit Default Swaps are contracts and also a type of insurance that generates payment if the issuer (of the bond) defaults on the payment. Swap contract can be classified into – Currency swap, Interest Rate Swap, and Equity Swap. Note: Apart from Equity, all other types of securities would be covered in detail in the individuals subjects of Fixed Income Securities, Derivatives, and Alternate Assets. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 9 Financial Intermediaries Any one who forms a part of the link between the actual buyers (who pays for the asset) and the sellers (who gets the proceeds from the sale) is known as financial intermediaries. Functions: 1. They enable the trades by providing the medium and channel of exchange; and 2. They provide various services like information transparency, liquidity, safety, etc. There are different forms of intermediaries – 1. Brokers/dealers/exchange facilitate the trade and provide important services. 2. Securitisers add another layer in the entire value chain by creating a NEW financial asset out of an already EXISTING Asset (Financial or Real). 3. Depository Institution channelize savings into investments. 4. Insurance Company is an important intermediary. 5. Arbitrageurs are one of the intermediaries. 6. Clearing House and Custodians are quasi-regulatory in nature and reduce a lot of risk in the investment process. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 10 Category 1 – Broker, Dealer, and Exchange I. Brokers: a) They try to fill orders for their clients, so act like agents and moreover, they do not trade with their clients. b) They reduce the cost of finding a counterparty for the trade (give the lowest possible bid and ask spread to counterparty). c) Different Types of brokers: d) © EduPristine I. Floor broker – they are independent members who act as brokers for other brokers. II. Block Brokers – they help with the placement of a large trade without moving the market by concealing the intentions of their clients. III. Broker-dealer – they trade on account of their clients, as well as their own. They face conflict of interest while trading. Security Broker who provides margin facility to the hedge funds and such other institutions, is called prime broker. For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 11 Category 1 – Broker, Dealer, and Exchange (Cont.) II. III. IV. Dealers: • They act as a counterparty for any client order by taking out securities from their own inventory. • The aim is to get the maximum bid and ask spread. • Essentially, they perform an important task of providing liquidity in the market. • Brokers who also work as dealers are known as broker-dealers (face conflict of interest). • Dealers who buy and sell securities directly with the central bank are known as primary dealers. Investment Banks: a) Give advice to companies and arrange for activities, like initial and seasoned securities offerings. b) Other services offered include corporate financing through debt or equity offerings, and merger and acquisition. Exchanges: a) They provide the traders a platform for conducting their trades. b) These exchanges essentially act as brokers. c) Most exchanges also act as a regulator, deriving their authority from the national or regional governments. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 12 Category 1 – Broker, Dealer, and Exchange (Cont.) V. Alternative Trading Systems: a) They are trading places that work like exchanges but without exercising regulatory authority over their users. b) They are also known as Electronic Communications Networks (ECN) or Multilateral Trading Facilities (MTF). c) Alternative Trading Systems (ATSs) are also known as dark pools, as they do not show the orders that their clients send them. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 13 Difference between Broker and Dealer Broker acts like an agent who tries to arrange trades for his clients. He does not trade with their client. In contrast, the dealer is a proprietary trader who trades with his clients. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 14 Category 2 and 3 Securitizers: They pool large amounts of securities or other assets and then sell interests in the pool. This helps to create liquidity in the assets, and facilitate the transfer of risk or ownership. These are banks and other financial institutions that buy and repackage a pool of securities, like mortgages or credit card receivables. The exercise of acquiring assets, putting them into a pool, and repackaging them into different tranches and classes is known as securitization. Securitization is usually done through Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) or Special Purpose Entities (SPE). Thus, the securitizer acts as a financial intermediary that establishes the contact with the investors who want to purchase mortgages with home owners interested in loans. Depository Institutions: Depositories can be commercial banks, credit unions, savings and loan banks, and other similar institutions that raise money from the depositors and other investors. These institutions provide transaction services such as checking deposits, and lending funds to other entities. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 15 Category 4 – Insurance Companies Insurance Companies: These companies help a company offset the risks by creating contracts and providing payments in case of a loss. Insurers are called financial intermediaries as they establish a connect for the buyers of their insurance contracts with investors, creditors, and reinsurers, and are keen to take the risks. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) is one of the instruments used by parties to protect themselves from a credit event. Insurance Companies encounter 3 main problems while absorbing risks: 1. Moral hazard – Insured companies take more (unnecessary) risk after getting covered by the insurance contract. 2. Adverse Selection – People who are most likely to fall to a risk, start buying the insurance. Business Model of the insurance company is at a risk. For example, a health insurance company has senior citizens as the majority of its clients. 3. Fraud – Insured companies try to claim the benefit by falsely reporting losses. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 16 Category 5 – Arbitrageurs Arbitrageurs: Arbitrageurs identify instances of mispricing in the identical or essentially identical financial instruments at different prices and in different markets. Replication is a process of taking a risk in one form and disposing off in another form. It is often used by arbitrageurs while trading in credit default swaps. Classification of Arbitrage Time Arbitrage Buying and selling the same asset at different point in times © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. Geography Arbitrage Buying and selling the same asset in different geographies at the same point in time 17 Difference between Dealers and Arbitrageurs Dealers help in providing liquidity to the buyers and sellers who come to the same market, but at different periods of time. Thus, they shift liquidity through time. Arbitrageurs help in providing liquidity to buyers and sellers who come to different markets, but at the same time. Thus, they shift liquidity across markets. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 18 Category 6 – Clearing House Clearing Houses: They arrange for the final settlement of trades. Clearing House provide the following services: 1. Escrow Services ensure that the right amount of cash and assets are transferred to each account; 2. Guarantee the completion of Contract (i.e., limit counterparty risk); 3. Ensures adequacy of capital with the brokers who allow margin trading and 4. Limits the aggregate net order quantity (buy orders minus sell orders) of the members. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 19 Positions that an Investor can Take A position in an asset is the quantum of the securities owned or owed by any entity. 1. Long Position: Investor either owns the asset in spot market, or at least purchase the right to buy the asset in future. • 2. The investor benefits when there is a rise in the price of the underlying instrument. Short Position: a) For an investor who own the asset – selling the asset owned is a short position. b) For an investor who DOES NOT own the asset – SHORT SELLING is a short position (covered in detail). Other Positions – 3. Hedge Position: Short position in one asset to avoid risk involved in long position in another assets is hedge position. 4. Leveraged Positions: This pertains to the purchase of an asset through borrowed money (covered in detail later). © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 20 Short Selling Meaning: Selling something that you do not own is short selling. The steps involved are: 1. Borrow a security from a broker; 2. Simultaneously sell the securities through that same broker; 3. Receive cash as sales proceeds and 4. Buy the security when the price reduces, thus making a profit (selling dear, buying cheap). Motivation to short sell: Investor believes that the stock is overpriced and its value is expected to fall. Later the investor can use it as a speculation or a hedge to an investment. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 21 Short Selling (Cont.) Important points: 1. Investor must return the securities to the lender as per the agreement, by buying it from the market. 2. Investor must hold back some portion of the short sale in form of collateral with the broker. 3. A short seller might need to give an additional margin, which can be in the form of cash or short-term riskless securities. 4. This strategy would benefit from a decrease in price. 5. Dividends on the security belong to the owner of the security, and not the short seller. 6. Maximum loss is unlimited; maximum gain however, is limited to the short sale proceeds. 7. The broker gets interest on the collateral, and may share a portion of this rate with the short seller at a rate called short rebate rate. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 22 Margin Trading Loan facility given by the broker to his investor to increase his trading capacity is called margin facility. Margin transactions involve borrowing a part of the money needed to purchase or sell a security, i.e., buying or selling securities with the borrowed money. Call Money Rate – This is the rate paid on margin loan. The aim of the investor is to make a return higher than the borrowing rate, which will cause the returns to be higher on the equity portion of the investment (Leveraged Returns). Leverage ratio – It is the total value of asset purchased, divided by the amount invested by the investor (his equity). • It can also be calculated as 1 divided by the initial margin %. The Security Broker who provides margin facility to the hedge funds and other institutions is called prime broker. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 23 Types of Margins 1. 2. Initial Margin – This is a part of the initial cost that is to be contributed by the investor. • The minimum level of 50% has been set by the Federal Reserve. • This means that the investor puts up half the cost of the investment and can borrow the rest from the broker and pay the interest to the brokerage firm. • Broker may ask for an initial margin higher than 50%. Maintenance Margin – It requires the investor to maintain a minimum equity in the investment throughout the life of the trade (till the time trade is not squared-off). • © EduPristine This is set by the individual broker and usually ranges between 25–30%. For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 24 How Margin Works Example: You buy 1,000 shares of company XYZ at $50. Assume there are no borrowing charges. Case A: You sell the share at $60: • If purchase of asset was at 100% cash; returns are (60 - 50) * 1000 / (50 * 1000) = 20%. • If purchase of asset was at 50% margin – ‒ Total Money needed = 50 * 1000 = 50,000; ‒ Margin money needed to buy = 50,000 * 0.5 = 25,000; ‒ Total Sale Value = 60,000 therefore total profit = 10,000 (60k - 50k); ‒ Total Profit % = (60,000 - 50,000)/(50,000 - 25,000) = 40%. Case B: You sell the share at $40: • If purchase of asset was at 100% cash, returns are (40 - 50) * 1000 / (50 * 1000) = -20%. • If purchase of asset was at 50% margin – ‒ Total Money needed = 50 * 1000 = 50,000; ‒ Margin money needed to buy = 50,000 * 0.5 = 25,000; ‒ Total Sale Value = 40,000; ‒ Total Profit % = (40,000 - 50,000)/(50,000 - 25,000) = -40%. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 25 Margin Call If an investors’ margin account balance sinks below the maintenance margin, the investor will get a margin call from the broker and thereby, would be asked to either liquidate the position, or bring back the account balance to its maintenance (minimum) margin level. This bringing back of the position in the account to maintenance margin is called variation margin. Investor has three options to respond to a margin call – 1. Security sale; 2. Deposit of cash and 3. Deposit additional securities. If the buyer does not give more equity, then the broker has the authority to square off the position to prevent further losses. Margin Call Price: • For Margin Purchase, Trigger Price = P * (1 – initial margin) / (1 – maintenance margin) • For Short sale, Trigger Price = P * (1 + initial margin) / (1 + maintenance margin) Example: Buy at $100, with initial at 50% and maintenance at 25%, You will get a trigger at 100 * (1-0.5) /(1-0.25) = $66.67. If you short sold at $100, with initial at 50% and maintenance at 25%, trigger will be at 100 * (1+0.5)/(1 + 0.25) = $ 120. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 26 Execution and Validity When an investor wants to trade, the following information is required to be entered: Position to be taken – long or short; Execution instruction – how to trade or fill an order; Validity instruction – up to when will an order be valid and Clearing instructions – how to settle the trade. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 27 Execution Instruction – How to Trade 1. 2. Market Order – • Such orders instruct the broker or exchange to get the best transaction quote, which is immediately available while filling the order. • Generally this is executed immediately. • Investor does not know the exact price of the trade – hence there is price uncertainty. • Execution is guaranteed. Limit Order – • This is an instruction to purchase at a price other than what is prevailing in the market currently. • The instruction places a limit on the prices of the trade hence, the price certainty is higher – ‒ Limit Buy order – Not to purchase above the limit price specified (generally lower than the market price) and ‒ Limit Sell order – Not to Sell below the limit price specified (generally higher than the market price). • © EduPristine Might not be executed if the desired price levels are not achieved during the validity period. For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 28 Execution Instruction – How to Trade (Cont.) • Different Types of limit orders – ‒ Marketable/aggressively – buy order where the limit price is above the best ask price or a sell order, where limit price is lower than the best bid price (a part of the order is certain to be executed). ‒ Making a new market/inside the market – this is possible when the limit price falls in between the best bid and best ask. ‒ Make the market – buy where the limit price is at the best bid, or sell where the limit price is at the best ask. ‒ Behind the market – buy where limit price is lower than the best bid, or sell where the limit price is higher than the best ask. ‒ Far from the market – is the situation when there is a large difference between the limit buy price—best bid or limit sell price—and the best ask. 3. All or Nothing (AON) – This is the choice to execute the entire order or not to execute any portion. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 29 Execution Instruction – How to Trade (Cont.) 4. Stop loss order – • This is set by traders to prevent losses on the positions that they have established. • Stop order reinforces the market momentum. • It will include: ‒ Stop-Sell instruction for a long position at a price below the current market price and ‒ Stop-Buy instruction for a short position at a price above the current market price. On the basis of trade visibility – 1. Hidden order: Only the broker or the exchange is aware of the size of trade, and are not disclosed to others until they fill them. 2. Display Size/Iceberg Orders: Only a part of the total order is made public and the balance portion is hidden. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 30 Types of Validity Instructions Validity means when the order can be executed: 1. Day Order – all instructions are valid only on the day when instruction is given. 2. Good-Till-Cancelled (GTC) are those in which the order will remain in the order book until filled or cancelled by the party that placed it. 3. Immediate-Or-Cancelled (IOC) orders are valid only when the broker or exchange receives them. They are also known as fill or kill orders. 4. Good-on-close or Market-on-close can be filled only at the close of trading. 5. Good-on-open order can be filled only at the beginning of trading. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 31 Clearing Instructions Clearing instructions mean the arrangement of the final settlement of the trade. It includes: Clearing instructions inform brokers and exchanges on the mechanism through which the final settlement of trades can be arranged. These are usually standing instructions to all the participating entities. For long sales, the broker must give a confirmation that the securities are kept for delivery. While for a short sale, the broker must either look to borrow the security on behalf of the client, or give a confirmation that the client can arrange the money. Use of more than one broker is made when different services are required to execute a single trade. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 32 Primary vs Secondary Market Primary Market – Public Offerings Sale of new debt or equity issues – it includes securities which have come to life for the first time. For equity issue this could be as: 1. Initial Public Offer – shares of a currently unlisted company sold first time in the market and 2. Seasoned issue – new shares of an already listed company. Underwriter (usually the investment banker) provides the issuer the facility of: 1. Origination – preparing the prospectus; 2. Book Building – estimating the interest and finalizing the best fitting issue price; and 3. Risk bearing – guarantees the price by standing ready to purchase the securities if public does not buy. Best efforts underwriting – the investment banker in this case does not take any price risk, but agrees to sell for the best available price; thus, no price guarantee to the issuing firm. Primary Market – Private Placements includes the: Sale of a new debt or equity issues directly to the investors with the help of an investment bank; Lower issuance cost for the firm and Lower issue price, since there is no active secondary market for such privately allotted securities. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 33 Primary vs Secondary Market (Cont.) Secondary Market – This is the market for securities that have already had their initial offerings and are now exchanging hands. There is no cash flow impact on the subject company. Investors who have already invested during IPO can make an exit by selling their stake to other investors. Liquidity increases and acts as a boost to the security price of the company. Other Important points – 1. Shelf registration: When a firm that is interest in a public offer makes all the disclosures and backend preparation, and waits for the right time to make an offer, the process is called shelf registration. 2. Dividend reinvestment plan: This is when the existing shareholders use the dividends they receive in buying new shares of the firm at the current market price (at a slight discount). • 3. No. of new shares: = Dividend entitlement / Discounted price Right Offerings: This is an issue made to the existing shareholders to raise additional capital where the issue prices are at a discount and at the prevailing market price. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 34 Secondary Security Market and Contract Market Structures It covers the below mentioned three concepts: Different Trading Sessions; Mechanisms of Execution and Different Systems of Market Information. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 35 Trading Sessions A market is a platform on which traders, i.e., buyers and sellers, conduct their transaction. A securities market could be structured as: 1. Call Market: Trading takes place at specific point of time. All trades, bids, and asks are disclosed, and a negotiated price is set, which clears the market for the security. • 2. This structure is feasible mostly in smaller markets and is used for setting opening and prices after trading halts on major exchanges. Continuous market: The security is traded any time the market is open. Prices may be set in this market either through an auction, or through bid-ask quotes. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 36 Execution Mechanisms 1. Order driven market – • Where all the buy and sell orders of all the investors are being displayed as being available. • Quantity under each trade is also displayed along with the price. • Since all orders are displayed upfront, any counterpart can view the available offers and decide. • Transparency is the biggest advantage and the lack of liquidity is the disadvantage. There are two set of rules, which are a part of the order-driven market mechanisms: Rule 1: Rules for order matching is where one has to match the buy and sell orders. • The first precedence is given to price and the second precedence to the order in which the trade was placed. Rule 2: The trade pricing rule determines the price at which trade takes place. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 37 Execution Mechanisms 2. Price/quote driven market – • Bid-ask price of only the market makers (dealers or specialist) are displayed. • The quantity is displayed. Only the price offered by each market maker is displayed (in form of ‘bidask’). • Number of price quotes available is equal to the number of market makers at that point in time. • The market maker must execute your order, either through his inventory, or by finding a counterpart. • Transparency is a disadvantage, while liquidity is an advantage. • Quote driven markets are used for all bonds and currencies, and also for spot commodities. • In quote driven markets, securities are over the dealer‘s counter, hence they are also called Over-theCounter (OTC) markets. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 38 Execution Mechanisms 3. Brokered Market – • Brokers arrange trades among their clients. • The instruments that are traded are unique and the liquidity is very low. • Personal equations are important. • Some examples of such securities are: © EduPristine a) Very holdings of stocks, b) Real estate, c) Masterpieces of fine art, d) Intellectual property, e) Operating companies, and f) Licenses of liquor and taxi medallions. For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 39 Systems of Market Information Markets differ in the nature and amount of data that they provide to the public. These are supposed to have pre-trade transparency when they publish the real-time data about quotes and orders. Markets are supposed to have post-trade transparency when they publish the real-time data about quotes and orders. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 40 Characteristics – Robust Financial System 1. Investors can easily borrow and lend money at a risk-free rate. 2. Borrowers can easily get funds which they need to do current projects with, if they can promise the repayment of the loaned funds. 3. Hedgers are able to easily trade away or cover up the risks that concern them. 4. Traders are able to trade currencies for other currencies or commodities that need them very smoothly. 5. Other characteristics include: a) Existence of a well-developed market that trade financial instruments; b) Markets are operationally efficient; c) Corporations make timely financial disclosures and governments allow market participants to make informed decisions on the available information and d) Prices always reflect fundamental values, which means that they are informationally efficient. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 41 Market Regulation The goals of market regulation are to: 1. Control fraud; 2. Control agency problems; 3. Promote fairness; 4. Set mutually beneficial standards; 5. Prevent undercapitalized financial firms from taking undue advantage of their investors by venturing into excessive risky investments and 6. Ensure that long-term liabilities are paid. Regulation is pivotal as regulating certain behaviors through market-based mechanisms is expensive for people who are not sophisticated and informed. Well-regulated markets would allow people to achieve their financial goals in a better way. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 42 Summary of Reading 33 The financial system encapsulates the platform, which allow unknown entities to contact each other to move money through time, to hedge risks, and to exchange assets, which they think are less valuable for those that are considered to be more valuable. Securities are first offered to the buyers in the primary markets and then to those in secondary markets. Many financial intermediaries connect buyers to sellers in a given instrument, thereby they act directly as brokers and exchanges, or indirectly as dealers and arbitrageurs. Margin loans allow participants to purchase more securities than their own money would otherwise permit them to purchase. To safeguard against default, brokers ask for maintenance margin payments from their customers who have borrowed cash or securities, when adverse price changes lead to their customer’s equity to drop below the maintenance margin ratio. Orders are instructions to buy or sell a particular security. Market orders tend to fill quickly, but often at inferior prices and limit order have execution uncertainty, but certainty on the price of the trade. Dealers provide liquidity in quote-driven markets. Order-driven markets arrange trades by ranking orders using precedence rules. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 43 Summary of Reading 33 (Cont.) A well-functioning financial system allows people to trade instruments that best solve their wealth and risk management problems with minimum transaction costs. Prices of securities are informationally efficient if they capture all the available information about fundamental values. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 44 Knowledge Check © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 45 Knowledge Check 1. 2. 3. Which of the following is the least likely a feature of a well-functioning financial system? A. Corporations make timely financial disclosures B. Investors can get and provide funds at the repo rate C. Hedgers can easily offset risks that concern them Dealers who trade with central bank when the central banks purchase or sell government securities impact the money supply, are most likely known as: A. Primary dealers B. Block brokers C. Broker-dealer What occurs when the insured takes more risks after taking the protection against losses? A. Moral hazards B. Adverse selections C. Fraud © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 46 Solution Solution: 1. B. Investors should be able to borrow and lend funds at the risk-free rate and not at the repo rate. The other two options are correct. Solution: 2. A. Dealers that act as brokers are known as broker-dealers. Dealers that trade with central banks when the banks buy or sell government securities in order to affect the money supply are known as primary dealers. Block brokers help with the placement of large trades. Solution: 3. A. Moral hazard means that insured companies take more (unnecessary) risk after getting covered by the insurance contract. Adverse Selection is related to a scenario when people who are most likely to fall to a risk, start buying the insurance, so the business Model of the insurance company is at a risk. In the end, fraud would occur when insured companies try to claim the benefit by falsely reporting the losses. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 47 Knowledge Check 4. 5. 6. Private securities as compared to public securities have: A. More returns B. More liquidity C. More regulatory constraints The market for debt securities with maturities of one year or less is most likely known as: A. Capital market B. Money market C. Alternative market Stop loss sell order more likely to be A. Equivalent to a protective call B. A limit order that is placed below the market price C. A limit order that is placed above the market price © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 48 Solution Solution: 4. A. Private securities as compared to public securities are illiquid and are subjected to less regulatory overview. Hence, the investors demand more return in private securities. Solution: 5. B. The market for debt securities with maturities of one year or less is most likely known as money market. Longer-term debt securities and equity securities which do not have any specific maturity date are called capital market. Alternative market refers those for hedge funds, commodities, real estate, leases, equipment's, gemstones. Solution: 6. B. A limit order that is placed below the market price. On the other hand, it is the stop loss buy order, which is like a limit order placed above the market price. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 49 Knowledge Check 7. 8. 9. Alex bought 120 stocks of a company at 50% margin, at a cost of $90. Maintenance margin requirement is 25%. Margin call will be called at: A. 70 B. 60 C. 80 An investor who does not have access to superior analyst should least likely: A. Invest in large cap stocks B. Diversify the portfolio C. Minimize transaction costs An investor buys 100 shares of a company at 50% margin for $42. The shares fall to $35 in the next few days. What is his rate of return on the investment? Instead if the stock had risen to $50, what will be his rate of return? A. -16.67%; 19.05% B. -33.33%; 38.10% C. -33.33%; 19.05% © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 50 Solution Solution: 7. B. Solution: 90*(1-0.5)/(1-0.25) = 60 Solution: 8. A. An investor without superior analysis skills should diversify and minimize the transaction costs. Solution: 9. B. The cost of the purchase will be $42 * 100 = $4,200 since the investor has a 50% margin, his equity will be $2,100. When the stock rises to $50. The value of his equity will be $2,900 giving him a return of 38.10%. If the stock falls to $35 his equity falls to $1,400 and he has a negative return of -33.33%. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 51 Knowledge Check 10. Which of the following is most likely to be true regarding market order and limit order? A. A market order instructs the broker to sell the stock at a price not less than what is set by him and buy at price not more than what is set by him B. A market order is used when the trader wishes to transact quickly, as when the trader has information he believes that it is not yet captured in the current market prices C. A trader can use a market order instead of limit order to avoid price execution uncertainty 11. A key difference between a call market and a continuous market is that call markets operate in a mature market and the price is arrived at after determining the number of buy and sell orders. A. Both the statements are correct B. Only one statement is correct C. Both the statements are incorrect 12. A firm provides public disclosures like in case of a regular offering, but then issues the registered securities over a period of time. This is done when it needs capital and the markets are more favorable. Which of the following is most likely to be true? A. It happens in a shelf registration, which is a part of the primary market B. It happens in a private placement, which is a part of the secondary market C. It happens in a private placement, which is a part of the primary market © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 52 Solution Solution: 10. B. A market order is used when the trader wishes to transact quickly, as when the trader has information he believes it is not yet captured in the current market prices. In order to avoid uncertainty about price execution, limit order is used and not the market order. Solution: 11. B. Call markets are usually observed when the markets are new and there is less number of stocks available for trading. Solution: 12. A. It happens in a shelf registration which is a part of the primary market. In private placement, securities are offered to a group of prospective investors but not to the public at large. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 53 Knowledge Check 13. An investor comes to know of some non-public information, which indicates a rise in share price of a company’s stock. He buys the shares of that company and sells when the price rises. With no market regulation controlling this type of activity, what problem could persist in the financial market? A. Fraud and theft B. Insider trading C. Defaults 14. For dealing in real estate, which market should an investor approach? A. Quote-driven market B. Order-driven market C. Brokered market © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 54 Solution Solution: 13. B. Insider information is a scenario when investor comes to know of some non-public information, which indicates a rise in share price of a company’s stock and on that basis he buys the shares of that company and sells when the price rises Solution: 14. C. Brokered market, because real estate trades are unique and liquidity is very low. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 55 Knowledge Check 15. Consider a mutual fund that invests primarily in fixed-income securities that have been determined to be appropriate, given the fund’s investment goal. Which of the following is least likely to be a part of this fund? A. Warrants B. Commercial paper C. Repurchase agreements 16. Jason Williams purchased 500 shares of a company at $32 per share. The stock was bought at 75 percent margin. One month later, Williams had to pay interest on the amount borrowed at a rate of 2% per month. At that time, Williams received a dividend of $0.50 per share. Immediately after that he sold the shares at $28 per share. He paid commissions of $10 on the purchase and $10 on the sale of the stock. What was the rate of return on this investment for the one-month period? A. -12.5% B. -15.4% C. -50.1% © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 56 Solution Solution: 15. A. Warrants are least likely to be part of the fund. Warrant holders have the right to buy the issuer’s common stock. Thus, warrants are typically classified as equity and are least likely to be a part of a fixed-income mutual fund. Commercial paper and repurchase agreements are short-term fixedincome securities. Solution: 16. B. The return is –15.4 percent. Total cost of the purchase = $16,000 = 500 × $32 Equity invested = $12,000 = 0.75 × $16,000 Amount borrowed = $4,000 = 16,000 – 12,000 Interest paid at month end = $80 = 0.02 × $4,000 Dividend received at month end = $250 = 500 × $0.50 Proceeds on stock sale = $14,000 = 500 × $28 Total commissions paid = $20 = $10 + $10 Net gain/loss = −$1,850 = −16,000 − 80 + 250 + 14,000 − 20 Initial investment including commission on purchase = $12,010 Return = −15.4% = −$1,850/$12,010 © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 57 Knowledge Check 17. Currently, the market in a stock is '$54.62 bid, offered at $54.71’. A new sell limit order is placed at $54.62. This limit order is said to: A. Take the market B. Make the market C. Make a new market 18. Zhenhu Li has submitted an immediate-or-cancel buy order for 500 shares of a company at a limit price of CNY 74.25. There are two sell limit orders standing in that stock’s order book at that time. One is for 300 shares at a limit price of CNY 74.30, and the other is for 400 shares at a limit price of CNY 74.35. How many shares from Li’s order would get cancelled? A. None (the order would remain open but unfilled) B. 200 (300 shares would get filled) C. 500 (there would be no fill) © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 58 Solution Solution: 17. A. This order is said to take the market. The new sell order is at $54.62, which is at the current best bid. Therefore, the new sell order will immediately trade with the current best bid and is taking the market. Solution: 18. C. The order for 500 shares would get cancelled; there would be no fill. Li is willing to buy at CNY 74.25 or less, but the minimum offer price in the book is CNY74.30; therefore, no part of the order would be filled. Because Li’s order is immediate-or-cancel, it would be cancelled. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 59 Reading 34: Security Market Indices © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 60 Learning Outcomes The candidate should be able to: a. Describe a security market index; b. Calculate and interpret the value, price return, and total return of an index; c. Describe the choices and issues in index construction and management; d. Compare the different weighting methods used in index construction; e. Calculate and analyze the value and return of an index given its weighting method; f. Describe rebalancing and reconstitution of an index; g. Describe uses of security market indexes; h. Describe types of equity indexes; i. Describe types of fixed- income indexes; j. Describe indexes representing alternative investments; k. Compare types of security market indexes. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 61 Basics on Indices Index – A single measure that consolidates market data and reflects the performance of an entire market is an index. • A security market index is a representation of a given security market, market segment, or asset class, and are mostly constructed with a portfolio of marketable securities. • It is a virtual portfolio where actual securities are not held. Relative Strength – This is the price of the constituent or the price of the index. Indexing – The process of benchmarking actual value to some base value (index) is indexing. Need to create an Index – Gathering and analyzing entire market data is time consuming, data intensive, thus an index (a sample) is used to represent the entire market (population). Individual Securities in the index are called constituent securities. Uses of an Index – 1. Reflection of market sentiments; 2. Manager’s performance is benchmarked; 3. Helps in measuring average risk and return—CAPM, Beta, and Alpha; and 4. Investment products as index funds and exchange traded funds can be constructed. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 62 Different Types of Return used to Create an Index 1. Price Return Index – • A price return index only tracks the changes in the price of the security. • The Value of a Price Return Index: N 𝑽𝑽𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩 = ∑ 𝒏𝒏𝐢𝐢 𝒑𝒑𝐢𝐢 𝑫𝑫 Where V 𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩 = value of the price return index n 𝒊𝒊= no of units of constituent security N = no of constituent securities in gthe index Pi = the unit price of constituent security D= the value of the divisor 2. Total Return Index – • © EduPristine Total return index will track not only the price, but also all the other interim cash flows (dividends/ interest income) received since the inception. For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 63 Calculation of Index Returns Case 1 – Calculation of single period returns 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹 𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰 = 𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐢𝐢 = 𝑷𝑷𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 − 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝟎𝟎 𝑷𝑷𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹 𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰 = 𝑷𝑷𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 − 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝟎𝟎 + 𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰 𝑷𝑷𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 Case 2 – Calculation of multiple period returns VPRIT = VPRI0(1+PRI1) (1+PRI2) (1+PRI3)… (1+PRIT) Where, VPRIT = The value of the price return index at time t VPRI0 = The value of the price return index at inception PRIT = The price return (as a decimal) on the index over period t, t=1,2,3….T © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 64 Issues in Index Construction 1. The target market (the customer of the index) will determine the investment universe and the securities available to be included in the index. 2. Once the investment universe is identified, the next step will be to identify its constituent securities to suitably represent the population. 3. It is important to determine the frequency at which the rebalancing should be done to ensure that representativeness is maintained. 4. The other thing that needs to be determined are the weights of the constituent securities. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 65 Different Types of Weights Used Different Types of Weights Used Price Weighted Equal or Unweighted Market Capitalization Weighted Float Adjusted Market Capitalization We need to find a closing value of the index and the returns, which the index has earned over a period of time. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 66 Fundamental Weighted Price Weighted Index The weight is calculated by dividing the price of each security with the sum of all the prices of the constituent securities. This index will emulate a portfolio created by purchasing one unit of each constituent security. Value of the price weighted index = Securities with greater price creates a bias in index calculation. The divisor of the formulae need to be readjusted after a stock-split/stock consolidation or stock dividend, so that the index value does not change on such occasions. For example, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵.𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 Return of the index = (Closing Value – Opening Value) / Opening Value © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 67 Example Problem Facts: Consider a stock index comprising 3 individual stocks. If the divisor at inception is 20, then: What is the base value of the price return index? What is the closing value of the price return index? What is the price return over the year? Company Original Price No of Units in Index Closing Prices A B C 50 70 35 10 20 30 45 75 150 Therefore , Base Value Of Price return index = 50+70+35/3 = 51.67 Closing Value Of Price return index = 45+75+150/3 = 90 Price Return Over the Year = 90-51.67/51.67 = 74.18 % © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 68 Solution Company Original Price No. of Units in Index Closing Prices A 50 10 45 B 70 20 75 C 35 30 150 Base Value Of Price return index = 50+70+35/3 = 51.67 Closing Value Of Price return index = 45+75+150/3 = 90 Price Return Over the Year = 90-51.67/51.67 = 74.18 % © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 69 Adjustment for the Divisor Before the split, there were three stocks of $10, $20, and $30. Therefore, the index value would be 20 = 60 / 3. Now if on the next day, there are no changes in the prices of the securities, but the $20 stock—B— splits for 2 for 1, then each share would now be worth $10. Without adjustment, the value of the index = (10 + 10 + 30) / 3 = 16.67. This would reflect as if the prices of the securities have fallen and therefore, the overall population (market) has underperformed. Thus, we need to readjust the divisor, so that the final index value stays at 20. Index value post the split = (10 + 10 + 30) / x = 20. Solution for x = 2.5. Henceforth, whenever the value of the index will be calculated, we would use 2.5 instead of 3 as the divisor for the calculation. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 70 Equal or Un-weighted Index This is an index where equal weight (no weight) is given to each constituent as per market value/cap. This index will emulate a portfolio created by investing equal dollar amount into the constituent security. Advantage: Simplicity is the advantage. Disadvantage: It needs to be rebalanced frequently to maintain equal weights. 𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑 𝐨𝐨𝐨𝐨 𝐭𝐭𝐭𝐭𝐭𝐭 𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈 = 𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇 𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒚𝒚 𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵. 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 Closing value of index = Opening value (1 + Index Return %). The divisor of the formulae does not need to be readjusted after a stock-split, stock consolidation, or stock dividend. Value Line Composite Average and the Financial Times Ordinary Share Index are the examples of such indexes. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 71 Example Problem Calculate the percentage of change in index. © EduPristine Company Opening Price Closing Price A 20 25 B 35 15 C 60 80 For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 72 Solution Price Change = A = 25 – 20 /20 * 100 = 25% B = 15 – 35 / 35 * 100 = - 57.14% C = 80 – 60 / 60 * 100 = 33.33 % Therefore, Change in Index = (25% - 57.14% +33.33 %) / 3 = 0.3967%. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 73 Market Capitalization Weighted Index An index where weight of each constituent is as per the respective total market value is the market capitalization weighted index. 𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖𝐖 𝐨𝐨𝐨𝐨 𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒 𝐀𝐀 = 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑨𝑨 × 𝑼𝑼𝑼𝑼𝑼𝑼𝑼𝑼𝑼𝑼 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑨𝑨 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰 𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴 𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 Value of the market Value weighted index = 𝛴𝛴 𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕 𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 × 𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩 𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰 𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽 𝛴𝛴(𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑 𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃 𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚)(𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔) Return of the index = (Closing Value - Opening Value) / Opening Value. Securities with greater market value create a bias in the index calculation. The divisor of the formulae does not need to be readjusted after a stock-split, stock consolidation, or stock dividend, since the market value does not change after such an event. For example, NYSE. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 74 Example Problem Company Opening Price No of Shares Closing Price A 20 1,000 25 B 35 3,000 15 C 60 5,000 80 Market Capitalization weighted index percentage return = ? © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 75 Solution Base Year Market Value = A = 20*1,000 = 20,000 B = 35*3,000 = 105,000 C = 60*5,000 = 300,000 Total = 425,000 Current Year Market Value = A = 25*1,000 = 25,000 B = 15*3,000 = 45,000 C = 80*5,000 = 400,000 Total = 470,000 Assume Base Index Value is 100. Therefore, Market Capitalization weighted index percentage return = {[470,000/425,000] -1}*100 = 10.59%. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 76 Other Weighted Index 1. 2. Float adjusted market Value: This is exactly similar to the market value weighted index, except that to calculate the market value, we use a number of shares available to the public for purchase, i.e., total shares issued—shared held by promoters, government, large, and strategic shareholders. • The S&P 500 Index composite is an example. • Disadvantage : Overvalued Securities whose prices have risen the most are overweighed, while securities whose prices have fallen are underweighted. Fundamental weighted: Parameters like sales, PAT, dividend or free cash flows are used to create weights between constituent securities. • Weight =(Sales/Price) or (Earnings /Price) • Index Return = Weighted average return of each constituent securities (weights mentioned above) • Closing value of index = Opening value (1+ Index Return %) • The most important property of fundamental weighting is that it leads to indexes that have a 'value' tilt. That is, a fundamentally weighted index tend to have ratios of book value, earnings, dividends, etc., to market value higher than a market-capitalization-weighted index. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 77 Rebalancing and Reconstitution Rebalancing – This is the process of adjusting the weights of each security in the index. To maintain the weight of each constituent security, the index provider rebalances the index by adjusting the weights of the constituent securities on a regular basis; usually on a quarterly basis. Price-weighted index are not rebalanced, because the weight of each security is determined by its price. Market-capitalization index also rebalances itself, however they need to be rebalanced after every acquisition, merger, or liquidation among the constituent entities. Reconstitution – This is the process of changing the constituent securities in the index. Reconstitution is part of the rebalancing cycle – when it is followed by change in the market cap (increase or decrease). Reconstitution date is the date on which the reconstitution occurs. Reconstitution creates turnover in a number of ways. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 78 Types of Equity Indices – What Constitutes an Index Types of Equity Indices Broad Market Indices – This typically constitutes more than 90% of the entire market (e.g.: Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Russell 3000). © EduPristine Multi-market Indices – This is a global index constructed from indices of different countries (index of indices). For example, MSCI International Equity Index. Fundamental multi-market indices – any parameter like Sales, Book value or PAT is used to weigh different countries’ indices to create a global index. For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. Sector Indices – Track a particular sector; for example, consumer goods, energy, finance, health care, and technology. 79 Style Indices – Selecting securities on the basis of either Value stock or Growth stock, or both is done here. Market capitalization: Large cap, midcap, small cap. Fixed-income Indices These are the Indices where the constituent securities are Fixed Income securities. Bond is just one part of the Fixed-income Investment. These indices are often categorized by: a) Aggregate or broad market indices – classified by market sector, style, or credit rating; b) Market sector indices; c) Style indices; d) Economic sector indices; and e) Specialized indices, such as high-yield, inflation-linked, and emerging market indices. Creating bond indexes is more difficult than Equity market index: 1. Bond universe is much broader than universe of stocks; 2. The universe is dynamic due to bonds maturing, new issues, calls, creation of sinking funds, etc.; 3. Price volatility is constantly changing – measured by the bond’s duration, which changes with the bond’s maturity and the market yield; and 4. Pricing problems due to the lack of frequent and reliable trading data. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 80 Alternative Asset Indices Investors can choose to increase their returns or protect their investments from risk by investing in alternative investments. Indices where constituent securities are alternative assets. Indices for Alternative investments Commodity indices © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Real estate investment trust indices Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. Hegde fund indices 81 Snap Shot Weighting Method Index Representing Price Dow Jones Industrial Average U.S. Blue Chip Companies Modified Price Nikkei Stock Average Japanese Blue Chip Companies TOPIX First Section Stocks of Tokyo Stock Exchange S&P Developed Ex-US BMI Energy Sector Index Energy Sector of Developed Global Markets Outside the US FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index Real Estate Seccurities in the North American, European and Asian Markets Morningstar Style Indices US Stocks classified by market cap and value/growth orientation MSCI All country World Index Stocks of 13 developed and 23 emerging markets Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index Investment grade bonds in the North American, European and Asian Markets Markit iBoxx Euro High Yield Bond Indices Sub-investment grade euro-denominated corporate bonds Asset Weighted HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index Overall Composition of the HFR database Equal Weighted HFRX Equal Weighted Strategies EUR Index Overall Composition of the HFR database Float Adjusted Market Cap Free - Float Adjusted Market Cap Market Cap © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 82 Summary of Reading 34 Security market indexes are aimed at measuring the values of different target markets (security markets, market segments, or asset classes). Indexes help in gauging market sentiment and serve as benchmarks for actively managed portfolios. Indexes act as proxies for asset classes in asset allocation models and as model portfolios for investment. A price return index captures only the prices of the constituent securities. A total return index captures not only the prices of the constituent securities, but also the reinvestment of all income received from the start of the index. The methods for index construction can be simple methods like price and equal weightings, or the more complex ones like market-capitalization and fundamental weightings. Rebalancing of the index is aimed at maintaining appropriate index weights. Reconstitution of the index is aimed at representation of the desired target market. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 83 Knowledge Check © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 84 Knowledge Check 1. 2. 3. Relative strength of a stock is defined as: A. Ratio of stock price to its book value B. Ratio of stock price to its earning C. Ratio of stock price to index price The New York Stock Exchange Index is: A. Market value-weighted indexes B. Price weighted index C. Hybrid index Stock dividends (Stock given to the existing stock holders) can lead to downward bias in which of the following index weighting schemes? A. Price weighted B. Value weighted C. Equal weighted © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 85 Solution Solution: 1. C. Ratio of stock price to index price is the relative strength of the stock. Solution: 2. A. NYSE is one of the prominent indices based upon the methodology of Market value-weights. Solution: 3. A. Price weighted indices are dependent on the prices and any changes in prices would impact the values, When companies pays dividends, the stock price goes down so it leads to a downward bias on the value of the such index. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 86 Knowledge Check 4. 5. 6. A small-cap index might underperform a large-cap index in a given sample period of 4 years. This is despite the fact that historically over longer periods small cap stocks are expected to outperform the index. This is most likely a form of: A. Survivorship bias B. Small Sample bias C. Selection bias On a particular day a stock A has a price of $15, stock B has a price of $25, and stock C has a price of $80. If stock C splits 2-for-1, what is the new denominator for price weighted index? A. 1 B. 2 C. 3 The exercise of adjusting the weights of securities in a portfolio in correspondence to their target weights after price changes have impacted the weights is known as: A. Targeting B. Rebalancing C. Reconstitution © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 87 Solution Solution: 4. B. A small-cap index might underperform in the short term but over a longer tenure they have outperformed the market. Solution: 5. B. $80/2 = 40 (15+25+80)/3 = 40 (15+25+40)/x = 40 X=2 Solution: 6. B. Reconstitution refers to the addition and deletion of securities that make an index, whereas rebalancing is the adjustment in the weights of securities in a portfolio in correspondence to their target weights after price changes have impacted the weights. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 88 Knowledge Check 7. 8. 9. Which of the following statements is the least correct regarding fixed income indexes? A. Different types of fixed-income indexes are available B. Fixed-income portfolio managers can easily replicate a fixed income index C. The fixed-income security universe is much narrower than university of bonds The security market indexes used the most worldwide is: A. Market capitalization-weighted index B. Equal-weighted index C. Price-weighted index The price of stock XYZ fell from $100 to $20. Stock XYZ was a constituent of an index, but after the stock fall its market cap reduced many folded and thus needed to be replaced in the index. Which of the following must take place for company XYZ to be replaced by ABC company’s stock? A. Rebalancing B. Reconstitution C. Both Rebalancing and Reconstitution © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 89 Solution Solution: 7. C. The fixed-income security universe is smaller than university of bonds. The fixed-income security universe is much wider than university of bonds. Fixed-income securities can be issued by government, government agencies and firms. Solution: 8. A. Market capitalization-weighted index is the most accepted method used for developing majority of the world indexes. Solution: 9. C. Not only the constituents of the index must change, but their weights as well must change. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 90 Knowledge Check 10. Which of the following reasons is not attributed to the difficulty in creating a bond index as compared to a stock index? A. Bond universe is broader than the Stock universe B. Lack of continuous trade data for bonds as compared to the listed stocks C. Bonds are a relatively new asset class as compared to stocks and hence, historical data is not available. 11. Which of the following index weighting methods is most likely subject to a value tilt? A. Equal weighting B. Fundamental weighting C. Market-capitalization weighting 12. Reconstitution of a security market index reduces: A. Portfolio turnover B. The need for rebalancing C. The likelihood that the index includes securities that are not representative of the target market © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 91 Solution Solution: 10. C. The statement 'Bonds are a relatively new asset class as compared to stocks & hence historical data is not available' is not a reason for the difficulty faced in constructing bond indices. Solution: 11. B. Fundamental weighting leads to indexes that have a value tilt. Solution: 12. C. Reconstitution is the process by which index providers review the constituent securities, reapply the initial criteria for inclusion in the index, and select which securities to retain, remove, or add. Constituent securities that no longer meet the criteria are replaced with securities that do. Thus, reconstitution reduces the likelihood that the index includes securities that are not representative of the target market. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 92 Knowledge Check 13. If the price return of an equal-weighted index exceeds that of a market-capitalization-weighted index comprised of the same securities, the most likely explanation is: A. Stock splits B. Dividend distributions C. Outperformance of small-market-capitalization stocks © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 93 Solution Solution: 13. C. The main source of return differences arises from outperformance of small-cap securities or underperformance of large-cap securities. In an equal-weighted index, securities that constitute the largest fraction of the market are underrepresented and securities that constitute only a small fraction of the market are overrepresented. Thus, higher equal-weighted index returns will occur if the smaller-cap equities outperform the larger-cap equities. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 94 Reading 35: Market Efficiency © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 95 Learning Outcomes The candidate should be able to: a. Describe market efficiency and related concepts, including their importance to investment practitioners; b. Distinguish between market value and intrinsic value; c. Explain factors that affect a market’s efficiency; d. Contrast weak- form, semi- strong- form, and strong- form market efficiency; e. Explain the implications of each form of market efficiency for fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and the choice between active and passive portfolio management; f. Describe market anomalies; g. Describe behavioral finance and its potential relevance to understanding market anomalies. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 96 Basics on Market Efficiency A market is regarded as ‘efficient’ if – 1. The current price of a security totally absorbs each and every information currently available about that security, encapsulating its risk attributes. In other words if intrinsic value = market price. 2. Security prices would change rapidly to the arrival of new information: • Efficient markets ensure that asset prices reflect all the past and present information. • Consistent superior, risk-adjusted returns are not achievable in an efficient market. • In fact, a passive investment strategy of buy-and-hold will work best due to its low costs as compared to an active investment strategy, i.e., a portfolio manager cannot outperform the market by its Security Selection and Tactical Asset Allocation. • The time frame for price adjustments to occur is important as it lets the trader earn profits through arbitrage transactions. • In an efficient market, prices are going to deviate only to that piece of information which is not fully anticipated by investors. • This is more a statistical concept, which is often challenged by the Economists. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 97 Example Problem A market in which assets’ market values are, on average, equal to or nearly equal to intrinsic values is best described as a market that is attractive for: A. Active investment B. Passive investment C. Both active and passive investment © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 98 Solution The correct answer is B. An active investment is not expected to earn superior risk-adjusted returns. The additional costs of active investment are not justified in such a market. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 99 Basics – Market Value vs Intrinsic Value Market value is the price at which the asset is tradable in the market. Intrinsic value is the value that a knowledgeable investor will place on the asset based on its investment characteristics. Investors try to find discrepancies in the market price and intrinsic value of the assets to make a profitable transaction. In a highly efficient market – • Investors will assume that the market price is equal to the intrinsic value. • In a highly inefficient market investors have the incentive to make a detailed analysis of the cash flows from the asset to arrive at its true value. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 100 Factors Affecting Market’s Efficiency 1. 2. 3. 4. Number of market participants – • Large number of market participants increase the chance of discovering mispricing in the asset prices. • Restrictions imposed on foreigners are an example of conditions that limit the number of market participants. • It is the most important factor. Information availability and Financial disclosures – • Regulators place a lot of importance on fair, orderly, and efficient markets. • Significant differences exist in the information efficiency of different markets and also between different product classes. • Insider trading regulations and penalties are intended to discourage illegal insider trading and promote fairness. Limits to Trading – • Limits on trading (imposed by Regulators) like restrictions on short-selling can reduce market efficiency. • Arbitrage trading is an important mechanism by which the true value of an asset can be determined. • Studies, however, show that short-selling is important for price discovery. Transaction costs and information-acquisition costs restricts our abilities to exploit inefficiencies in the market. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 101 Example Problem The expected effect on market efficiency of opening a securities market to trading by foreigners would be to: A. Decrease market efficiency B. Leave market efficiency unchanged C. Increase market efficiency © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 102 Solution The correct answer is C. The opening of markets as described, should increase the market efficiency by increasing the number of market participants. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 103 Different Forms of Market Efficiencies Weak Form of Efficiency Different Forms of Market Efficiencies Semi-strong Form of Efficiency Strong Form of Efficiency © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 104 Forms of Market Efficiencies 1. 2. Weak Form – Security prices reflect all the historical information. • Serial Test for Independence: To test if security markets are of the weak-form, one needs to check for serial correlation in the market returns and search for predictable patterns. • Trading Rule Test: This test requires to search for trading rules that can be applied to exploit mispricing in the market, this is commonly used in technical analysis. Semi-strong form – Prices capture (only) the publicly available information. • All market participants can get any information that is expected to affect the security’s price. • Return prediction studies to test include time-series test (based on assumption that best estimate of future returns is the long-run historical rate of return); and event studies (markets will react to any disclosures and the market participants are not expected to make any profits from trading after an announcement is made). • Cross-sectional tests are based on an assumption that markets are efficient when all the securities lie along the SML. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 105 Forms of Market Efficiencies (Cont.) 3. Strong Form – Markets reflect all public and private information. • In the case of a market being strong form of efficiency market, insiders would not be able to earn abnormal returns from trading on the basis of private information. But the securities’ laws are intended to prevent exploitation of private information, so the following group of people are expected to outperform the market: 1. Insider Traders; 2. Exchange Specialists; 3. Security Analysts and 4. Professional Money Managers. Note: • If a market is in the semi-strong form of efficiency, then it must also be in the weak-form efficiency. • A market that is in the strong-form of efficiency is—by definition—also in the semi-strong and weakform of efficiency. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 106 Implications of the Forms of Market Efficiency 1. 2. Fundamental Analysis – • Fundamental Analysis examines publicly available information and estimates to find the intrinsic value of assets. • Buy and sell decisions depend on whether the current market price is less than or greater than the estimated intrinsic value. • Fundamental Analysis facilitates a semi-strong efficient market by disseminating value-relevant information. Technical Analysis – • Investors who use technical analysis try to profit by looking at patterns of prices and trading volume. • By detecting and exploiting patterns in prices, technical analysts assist markets in maintaining the weak-form efficiency. • Abnormal profits may be a possibility from price inefficiency, but may not be consistent because of other market participants exploiting this arbitrage opportunity. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 107 Implications of the Forms of Market Efficiency 3. Portfolio Management – • If the securities’ markets are in the weak and semi-strong form of efficiency, the consequence is that active trading is not likely to generate abnormal returns on a consistent basis. • Passive portfolio management should outperform active portfolio management. • Role of portfolio management is to hold a portfolio considering the portfolio’s objectives and investor’s risk preferences, with adequate diversification and asset allocation. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 108 Implications of the Forms of Market Efficiency (Cont.) Weak form has been supported by most tests, which means that by studying past price charts and volumes, investors cannot earn risk adjusted abnormal returns Semi-strong form tests lead to mixed results, because – • Security prices do adjust rapidly on a range of events • But may not do so on all occasions Strong form of market efficiency is not supported by tests. Implications – Technical analysis that depends on analyzing historical data has no value. Fundamental analysis will only yield superior results by looking forward, that is forecasting future values for important economic and fundamental data. So, if your forecasting ability is better, you would generate a higher risk adjusted return. Security Analysts and Money Managers (generally a CFA® charterholders) have not been able to outperform the buy and hold policies without access to superior analysis. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 109 Market Anomalies An anomaly is something that does not follow the common rule (which in this case is that the markets are efficient or the EMH). Market anomaly takes place when a change in the price of an asset or security cannot directly be attributed to the current piece of information known in the market, nor to the dissemination of new information into the market. An anomaly in an EMH test would help to disprove the EMH and support the fact that it is possible to earn higher profits using this test, than through an average buy and hold policy. Data mining (trying to establish a statistical relationship using historical data) can be used to discover profitable anomalies. Sampling of Observed Pricing Anomalies: 1 2 3 Time Series Cross-Sectional Other Calendar Size Effect Close-end fund discount Momentum and Overreaction Value Effect Earnings surprise IPOs © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 110 Category 1 – Time Series Anomalies 1. 2. Calendar Anomalies Anomaly Observation Turn of the year effect Buying at year end (December closing) and selling at the beginning of the year (January beginning) will give you higher returns. Turn of the month effect Returns have been higher on the last trading day of the month and on the first three trading days of the next month. Day of the week effect The average returns on Monday tend to be lower than the average returns for the other four days. Weekend effect Returns on Fridays are higher than the returns on Mondays. Holiday effect Single day returns on stocks prior-to-market holidays period tend to be higher than the returns on other days. Momentum Anomalies and Overreaction Anomalies – • It is related to short-term share price patterns. • It states that investors tend to overreact to the dissemination of unexpected public information. • Therefore, stock prices will be too high for those companies which release good (bad) information. • This anomaly is also known as the overreaction effect. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 111 Category 2 – Cross-sectional Anomalies 1. Size Effect – • 2. It has been observed that shares of small cap companies have outperformed stocks of large-cap companies on a risk-adjusted basis. Value Effect – • Value stocks are those that have below average P/Es and M/Bs, and above average dividend yields. • Studies show that value stocks have consistently done better than the growth stocks over long periods of time. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 112 Category 3 – Other Anomalies 1. 2. 3. Closed-end Investment Fund Discounts – • Theoretically, these shares should trade at a price approximately equal to their Net Asset Value (NAV). • However, it is found that closed-end funds trade at a discount from NAV due to illiquidity, high management fees, etc. Earnings Surprise – • The unexpected portion of the earnings announcement, or earnings surprise, is that piece of the earnings that is not expected by investors. As per the efficient market hypothesis, this will result in a price adjustment. • Earnings surprises are captured rapidly in stock prices, but such change is not always efficient. • Companies that show the largest positive earnings surprises tend to showcase superior stock return performance. • Thus, investors could earn abnormal returns by buying stocks with positive earnings surprises and by selling those with negative surprises. IPO: These are generally underpriced to avoid any risk of failing due to the lack of interest among the investors. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 113 Behavioral Finance It studies the psychological behavior of investors. It tries to perceive how the investors will behave in different situations. The study of behavioral finance also helps explain some of the market anomalies. Asset pricing models assume that markets are rational. However, in reality, this is not true as this leaves a lot of scope for irrational behavior to affect the prices of stocks. A. Herding Behaviour: An investor‘s action follows what other investors are doing, rather than being based on rational information. B. Loss Aversion: Investors are more likely to be afraid of a probable loss, than be motivated by the same amount of probable profits from a particular investment. C. Overconfidence Bias: This refers to the overconfidence in the ability to process and interpret information about a security. D. Information cascade: Uninformed trader watch the actions of the informed traders before taking their own actions. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 114 Behavioral Finance (Cont.) Other behavioral biases include – 1. Representativeness: Investors assess new information and probabilities of outcomes based on the similarity to the current state or to a familiar classification. 2. Mental accounting: The act of bifurcating different securities into different MENTAL buckets rather than viewing them as a portfolio is mental accounting. 3. Conservatism: This is when investors are slow to react to new information and maintain their prior views or forecasts. 4. Narrow framing: This framing is when the investors focus on issues in isolation without its context or environment. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 115 Summary of Reading 35 Efficient market hypothesis concludes that it is not possible to outperform the market on a consistent basis by delivering excess returns, than expected for the level of risk of the investment. In the weak form, asset prices fully capture all data with regard to past price and trading volume information. In the semi-strong form, asset prices capture all publicly known and available information. In the strong form, asset prices fully capture both public and private information. Intrinsic value refers to the actual worth of an asset, whereas market value refers to the price at which an asset can be bought or sold. In efficient markets, the intrinsic value would be close to market value. Empirically securities markets in developed countries are supposed to be semi-strong-form efficient; however, empirical evidence does not support the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. There are a number of anomalies which contradict the notion of market efficiency, including the size anomaly, the January anomaly, and the winners–losers anomalies. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 116 Knowledge Check © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 117 Knowledge Check 1. 2. 3. An analyst makes the following statement, 'Prices in a market should reflect all available information regarding the asset. The asset should also be bought or sold quickly at prices close to the previous transaction (high liquidity).’ Here: A. Both statements are correct B. Only one statement is correct C. Both statements are incorrect An analyst who makes investment decisions based on the various psychological traits of the individuals and groups is most likely following a branch of financial economics known as: A. Monetary finance theory B. Standard finance theory C. Behavioral finance theory Which of the following is not an assumption of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)? A. Large number of profit maximizing people independently valuing securities B. Different news information are random and independent of each other C. Investors adjust prices to information in the correct way © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 118 Solution Solution: 1. A. Markets should ideally be perfectly efficient markets with prices reflecting all the disclosed and nondisclosed information also there should be good liquidity in the market. Solution: 2. C. Behavioral finance is when investments are made on the basis of the psychological traits of individuals and groups. Solution: 3. C. Investors adjust prices to information in the correct way. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 119 Knowledge Check 4. 5. 6. Small Firm Effect Market Anomaly states that: A. Small firms consistently gave larger risk adjusted returns B. Small firms consistently gave smaller risk adjusted returns C. Size of the firm does not matter with regard to the returns Which of the following is not an implication of EMH for Portfolio Managers? A. Portfolio Managers must construct the portfolio as per the clients objectives B. Portfolio Managers can ignore customer constraints C. Portfolio Managers should strive to reduce transaction costs The averaging down concept is explained by: A. Overconfidence Bias B. Confirmation Bias C. Escalation Bias © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 120 Solution Solution: 4. A. Small firms consistently gave larger risk adjusted returns. Solution: 5. B. Portfolio Managers can ignore customer constraints. Solution: 6. C. Escalation Bias explains the averaging down concept. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 121 Knowledge Check 7. 8. 9. Which of the following is not a reason for mispricing of securities to exist: A. Lack of theoretical understanding of an anomaly B. Lower transaction costs to execute such anomalies C. Too small profits and hence, not worthwhile to spend time and resources towards them Corporate insiders, professional money managers and stock exchange specialists are most likely to be tested for which form of the EMH: A. Strong form Hypothesis B. Semi-strong form Hypothesis C. Weak form Hypothesis The expected effect on market efficiency of opening a securities market to trading by foreigners would be to: A. Decrease market efficiency B. Leave market efficiency unchanged C. Increase market efficiency © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 122 Solution Solution: 7. B. Lower transaction costs to execute such anomalies. Solution: 8. A. Corporate insiders, professional money managers, security analysts and stock exchange specialist represent a group of investors who represent the strong-form of EMH. They have information which might not be available to the lay investor and the means to act on it. Solution: 9. C. The opening of markets as described should increase market efficiency by increasing the number of market participants. © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 123 Knowledge Check 10. If a market is weak-form efficient but semi-strong-form inefficient, then which of the following types of portfolio management is most likely to produce abnormal returns? A. Passive portfolio management B. Active portfolio management based on technical analysis C. Active portfolio management based on fundamental analysis 11. If a researcher conducting empirical tests of a trading strategy using time series of returns finds statistically significant abnormal returns, then the researcher has most likely found: A. A market anomaly B. Evidence of market inefficiency C. A strategy to produce future abnormal returns 12. Observed overreactions in markets can be explained by an investor’s degree of: A. Risk aversion B. Loss aversion C. Confidence in the market © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 124 Solution Solution: 10. B. If markets are not semi-strong-form efficient, then fundamental analysts are able to use publicly available information to estimate a security’s intrinsic value and identify misvalued securities. Technical analysis is not able to earn abnormal returns if markets are weak-form efficient. Passive portfolio managers outperform fundamental analysis if markets are semi-strong-form efficient. Solution: 11. A. Finding significant abnormal returns does not necessarily indicate that markets are inefficient or that abnormal returns can be realized by applying the strategy to future time periods. Abnormal returns are considered market anomalies, because they may be the result of the model used to estimate the expected returns or may be the result of underestimating transaction costs or other expenses associated with implementing the strategy, rather than because of market inefficiency. Solution: 12. B. Behavioral theories of loss aversion can explain observed overreaction in markets, such that investors dislike losses more than comparable gains (i.e., risk is not symmetrical). © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc. 125 Thank You! For queries, write to us at: care@edupristine.com © EduPristine For [CFA® Program Level-I] (Confidential) Disclaimer: The content is partially owned by CFA Institute, such as knowledge check, examples, diagrams, etc.