Statistics & Probability Normal Distribution: Finding Probabilities and Application of Z-score PROBABILITY AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS If a random variable x is normally distributed, you can find the probability that x will fall in a given interval by calculating the area under the normal curve for that interval. μ = 500 σ = 100 P(x < 600) = Area μ = 500 600 x PROBABILITY AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS Normal Distribution μ = 500 σ = 100 P(x < 600) Standard Normal Distribution μ=0 σ=1 x 600 500 z 1 100 P(z < 1) z x μ =500 600 μ=0 1 Same Area P(x < 600) = P(z < 1) PROBABILITY AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of 8. If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability that a student receives a test score less than 90. μ = 78 σ=8 z x - μ = 90 -78 σ 8 = 1.5 P(x < 90) μ =78 90 μ =0 ? 1.5 P(x < 90) = P(z < 1.5) = 0.9332 x z The probability that a student receives a test score less than 90 is 0.9332. PROBABILITY AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of 8. If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability that a student receives a test score greater than 85. μ = 78 σ=8 P(x > 85) μ =78 85 μ =0 0.88 ? z = x - μ = 85 -78 σ 8 = 0.875 0.88 x z The probability that a student receives a test score greater than 85 is 0.1894. P(x > 85) = P(z > 0.88) = 1 P(z < 0.88) = 1 0.8106 = 0.1894 PROBABILITY AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of 8. If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability that a student receives a test score between 60 and 80. z = x - μ = 60 - 78 = -2.25 P(60 < x < 80) μ = 78 σ=8 60 σ 8 z 2 x - μ = 80 - 78 σ 8 1 μ =78 80 2.25 μ =0 0.25 ? ? x z = 0.25 The probability that a student receives a test score between 60 and 80 is 0.5865. P(60 < x < 80) = P(2.25 < z < 0.25) = P(z < 0.25) P(z < 2.25) = 0.5987 0.0122 = 0.5865 FINDING PROBABILITIES FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS A survey indicates that people use their cellular phones an average of 1.5 years before buying a new one. The standard deviation is 0.25 year. A cellular phone user is selected at random. Find the probability that the user will use their current phone for less than 1 year before buying a new one. Assume that the variable x is normally distributed FINDING PROBABILITIES FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS Normal Distribution μ = 1.5 σ = 0.25 z P(x < 1) Standard Normal Distribution μ=0 σ=1 x 1 1.5 2 0.25 P(z < –2) 0.0228 z x 1 1.5 P(x < 1) = 0.0228 –2 0 FINDING PROBABILITIES FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS EXERCISE 1. In a survey of U.S. men, the heights in the 20 –29 age group were normally distributed, with a mean of 69.4 inches and a standard deviation of 2.9 inches. Find the probability that a randomly selected study participant has a height that is (a) less than 66 inches, (b) between 66 and 72 inches (c) more than 72 inches, and (d) identify any unusual events. Explain your reasoning. FINDING PROBABILITIES FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS EXERCISE 2. A survey indicates that for each trip to the supermarket, a shopper spends an average of 45 minutes with a standard deviation of 12 minutes in the store. The length of time spent in the store is normally distributed and is represented by the variable x. A shopper enters the store. Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store for between 24 and 54 minutes. FINDING PROBABILITIES FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS EXERCISE 3. Triglycerides are a type of fat in the bloodstream. The mean triglyceride level in the United States is 134 milligrams per deciliter. Assume the triglyceride levels of the population of the United States are normally distributed with a standard deviation of 35 milligrams per deciliter. You randomly select a person from the United States. What is the probability that the person’s triglyceride level is less than 80? FINDING A Z-SCORE GIVEN AN AREA Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area of 0.3632. Solution: 0.3632 z z 0 FINDING A Z-SCORE GIVEN AN AREA •Locate 0.3632 in the body of the Standard Normal Table. The z-score is –0.35. • The values at the beginning of the corresponding row and at the top of the column give the z-score. FINDING A Z-SCORE GIVEN AN AREA EXERCISE Answer the following. 1. Find a z-score that corresponds to an area of 0.05. 2. Find the z-value if the area to the left of the Z score is 0.60. 3. Find the z-score that has 10.75% of the distribution’s area to its right. FINDING A Z-SCORE GIVEN A PERCENTILE Find the z-score that corresponds to P75. Area = 0.75 μ =0 ? 0.67 z The z-score that corresponds to P75 is the same z-score that corresponds to an area of 0.75. The z-score is 0.67. TRANSFORMING A Z-SCORE TO AN X-SCORE To transform a standard z-score to a data value x in a given population, use the formula x = μ + zσ TRANSFORMING A Z-SCORE TO AN X-SCORE A veterinarian records the weights of cats treated at a clinic. The weights are normally distributed, with a mean of 9 pounds and a standard deviation of 2 pounds. Find the weights x corresponding to z-scores of 1.96, –0.44 and 0. Solution: Use the formula x = μ + zσ •z = 1.96: x = 9 + 1.96(2) = 12.92 pounds •z = –0.44: x = 9 + (–0.44)(2) = 8.12 pounds •z = 0: x = 9 + (0)(2) = 9 pounds Notice 12.92 pounds is above the mean, 8.12 pounds is below the mean, and 9 pounds is equal to the mean. FINDING VALUES EXERCISE A. Find the z-score that corresponds to each percentile. 1. P10 2. P20 3. P99 B. Solve the problems completely. 1. A vending machine dispenses coffee into an eightounce cup. The amounts of coffee dispensed into the cup are normally distributed, with a standard deviation of 0.03 ounce. You can allow the cup to overflow 1% of the time. What amount should you set as the mean amount of coffee to be dispensed? FINDING VALUES EXERCISE 1. In a large section of a statistics class, the points for the final exam are normally distributed, with a mean of 72 and a standard deviation of 9. Grades are assigned according to the following rule. • The top 10% receive A’s. • The next 20% receive B’s. • The middle 40% receive C’s. • The next 20% receive D’s. • The bottom 10% receive F’s. Find the lowest score on the final exam that would qualify a student for an A, a B, a C, and a D.