Strategic Management By: Dr. Vivek Singh Tomar vstomar@imtcdl.ac.in To understand the meaning, scope and nature of Strategy and Strategic Management To understand the concept of planning and strategic management process Unit I (Objectives) To understand how Strategic Management has evolved over years to its current state today To get familiar with major milestones and contributors to the discipline of Strategic Management To understand the hierarchy and pattern of strategy development Managerial Challenges Start up Challenges Progress Challenges •Think Big •Forget •Start Small •Borrow •Scale up •Learn Understanding Strategy “Strategy, the art of war, is especially the planning of movement of troops and ships, into favorable positions; plan of action or policy in business or policies” Oxford Pocket Dictionary “Strategy is determination of long term goals and objectives of an enterprise and the adoption of courses of action and the allocation of resources necessary for carrying out these goals” Alfred Chandler ‘Strategy & Structure’ “Strategy is a set of managerial decisions and actions involved in making a major market-creating business offering” W. Chan Kim ‘INSEAD Faculty’ “What Business Strategy is all about is, in one word – Competitive Advantage. The sole objective of Strategic Planning is to enable a company to gain, as efficiently as possible, a sustainable edge over its competitors. Corporate Strategy thus implies an attempt to alter a company’s strength relative to that of its competitors in the most efficient way” Kenichi Ohmae ‘The Mind of the Strategist’ STRATEGY IS DEFINED AS THOSE ACTIONS THAT A COMPANY PLANS, IN RESPONSE TO, OR IN ANTICIPATION OF, CHANGES IN ITS EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT, ITS CUSTOMERS AND ITS COMPETITORS. STRATEGY IS A WAY COMPANY AIMS TO IMPROVE ITS POSITION VIS-À-VIS COMPETITION. Strategy narrowly defined as “ the art of general” (Greek StratAgos). It defines “what we want to achieve” & chart out course of action, to survive & sustain growth in changing environments. Strategy is a set of Key decisions made to meet Objectives. Domain of Strategy strategic competitiveness and above normal returns concerns managerial decisions and actions which materially affect the success and survival of business enterprises involves the judgment necessary to strategically position a business and its resources so as to maximize long-term profits in the face of irreducible uncertainty and aggressive competition strategy is the linkage between a business and its current and future environment Common Elements in Successful Strategy Source: Adapted from Robert S. Grant, 1991 Successful Strategy EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION Long-term, simple and agreed upon objectives Profound understanding of the competitive environment Objective appraisal of resources $ Answers to the following define an overall direction for the organization's grand strategy Where is the organization now? Thinking Strategically Where does the organization want to be? What changes are among competitors? What courses of action will help us achieve our goals? Understanding Strategic Management +Strategic or institutional management is the conduct of drafting, implementing and evaluating cross-functional decisions that will enable an organization to achieve its long-term objectives +It is the process of specifying the organization's mission, vision and objectives, developing policies and plans, often in terms of projects and programs, which are designed to achieve these objectives, and then allocating resources to implement the policies and plans, projects and programs. +Strategic management is a level of managerial activity under setting goals and over Tactics. +Strategic management provides overall direction to the enterprise and is closely related to the field of Organization Studies +According to Arieu (2007), "there is strategic consistency when the actions of an organization are consistent with the expectations of management, and these in turn are with the market and the context." +“Strategic management is an ongoing process that evaluates and controls the business and the industries in which the company is involved; assesses its competitors and sets goals and strategies to meet all existing and potential competitors; and then reassesses each strategy annually or quarterly [i.e. regularly] to determine how it has been implemented and whether it has succeeded or needs replacement by a new strategy to meet changed circumstances, new technology, new competitors, a new economic environment., or a new social, financial, or political environment.” (Lamb, 1984:ix) Strategic Management Managers ask such questions as... What changes and trends are occurring? Who are our customers? What products or services should we offer? How can we offer these products or services most efficiently? Concept of Planning +Concept 1: Organisations need a planning architecture. A planning architecture is an overview of how different planning processes fit together. It identifies: +different types of plan +the time horizon of each +when they have to be completed +time allowed for preparing the plan +the frequency of updating +who is responsible +how the different plans fit together. A Planning Architecture Concept 2: Planning is an intellectual process. Concept 3: Planning is a social process. The Strategic Management Process Strategic Management Process Scan External Environment – National, Global Evaluate Current Mission, objectives, Strategies Scan Internal Environment – Core Competence, Synergy, Value Creation Identify Strategic Factors – Opportunities, Threats SWOT Define new Mission objectives, Grand Strategy Identify Strategic Factors – Strengths, Weaknesses Formulate Strategy – Corporate, Business, Functional Implement Strategy via Changes in: Leadership culture, Structure, HR, Information & control systems 4 Phases of Strategic Management in a Company + Basic Financial Planning -(Meeting annual budgets) + Forecasting-based Planning -(Incorporating predictions beyond next year) + Externally Oriented Planning -(Thinking strategically, Strategic Planning) + Strategic Management + -(Considering also the implementation & control aspects when formulating strategies) Strategic Management The Evolution Some Questions +How has the strategy field developed? +How has the thinking in strategy evolved? +How is the thinking in strategy moving towards? +What are the questions in strategy that are not answered? +What are the dilemmas and confusions in the field of strategy +What have been the loop holes in strategy making? +What are the potential models of sustainable strategy? Major Timeline DOMINANT THEME MAIN ISSUES KEY CONCEPTS& TOOLS MANAGE-MENT IMPLICATIONS 1950s 1960s-early 70s Mid-70s-mid-80s Late 80s –1990s Budgetary planning & control Corporate planning Positioning Competitive advantage 2000s Strategic innovation Financial Planning Selecting Focusing on Reconciling control growth &sectors/markets. sources of size with diversification Positioning for competitive flexibility & leadership advantage agility Capital budgeting. Financial planning Forecasting. Corporate planning. Synergy Industry analysis Segmentation Experience curve Portfolio analysis Resources & Cooperative capabilities. strategy. Shareholder Complexity. value. Owning E-commerce. standards. — Knowledge Management— Coordination & control by Budgeting systems Corporate planning depts. created. Rise of corporate planning Diversification. Restructuring. Global strategies. Reengineering. Matrix structures Refocusing. Outsourcing. Alliances & networks Self-organiz ation & virtual organization Major Thought Schools Alfred Chandler – Corporate Strategy John Dunning – IB Strategy C K Prahalad – Inclusive Strategy Sumantra Ghoshal – Problems in T.C.E. Historical development of Strategic Management Birth of strategic management originated in the 1950s and 60s Alfred D. Chandler, Jr., Philip Selznick, Igor Ansoff, Peter F. Drucker Alfred Chandler Strategy and Structure “structure follows strategy” Philip Selznick Organization's internal factors with external environmental circumstances SWOT analysis Igor Ansoff market penetration strategies product development strategies market development strategies horizontal and vertical integration diversification strategies Corporate strategy Peter Drucker stressed the importance of objectives management by objectives (MBO) Growth and portfolio theory Profit Impact of Marketing Strategies (PIMS) effect of market share Started at General Electric, moved to Harvard in the early 1970s, and then moved to the Strategic Planning Institute in the late 1970s, it now contains decades of information on the relationship between profitability and strategy "PIMS provides compelling quantitative evidence as to which business strategies work and don't work" - Tom Peters. The Japanese challenge: + Higher employee morale, dedication, and loyalty; + Lower cost structure, including wages; + Effective government industrial policy; + Modernization after WWII leading to high capital intensity and productivity; + Economies of scale associated with increased exporting; + Relatively low value of the Yen leading to low interest rates and capital costs, low dividend expectations, and inexpensive exports; + Superior quality control techniques such as Total Quality Management and other systems introduced by W. Edwards Deming in the 1950s and 60s. McKinsey 7S Framework Strategy, Structure, Systems, Skills, Staff, Style, and Supraordinate goals The Mind of the Strategist was released in America by Kenichi Ohmae Tom Peters -In Search of Excellence Gaining competitive advantage Gary Hamel and C. K. Prahalad Strategic intent and strategic architecture Dave Packard and Bill Hewlett devised an active management style that they called Management By Walking Around (MBWA). Michael Porter cost minimization strategies, product differentiation strategies, and market focus strategies The Military Theorists +Business War Games by Barrie James, 1984 +Marketing Warfare by Al Ries and Jack Trout, 1986 +Leadership Secrets of Attila the Hun by Wess Roberts , 1987 Philip Kotler was a well-known proponent of marketing warfare strategy +Offensive marketing warfare strategies +Defensive marketing warfare strategies +Flanking marketing warfare strategies +Guerrilla marketing warfare strategies Strategic change In 1968, Peter Drucker (1969) coined the phrase Age of Discontinuity In 2000, Gary Hamel discussed strategic decay In 1978, Abell, D. described strategic windows and stressed the importance of the timing (both entrance and exit) of any given strategy Clayton Christensen (1997) 1-disruptive technology 2-agnostic marketing (no one knows how in what quantities a disruptive product will be used before experiencing the product) Henry Mintzberg (1988) – Strategy was much more fluid and unpredictable than people had thought +Strategy as plan - a direction, guide, course of action - intention rather than actual +Strategy as ploy - a maneuver intended to outwit a competitor +Strategy as pattern - a consistent pattern of past behaviour - realized rather than intended +Strategy as position - locating of brands, products, or companies within the conceptual framework of consumers or other stakeholders - strategy determined primarily by factors outside the firm +Strategy as perspective - strategy determined primarily by a master strategist Information and technology driven strategy + Peter Drucker had theorized the rise of the “knowledge worker” back in the 1950s + In 1990, Peter Senge, who had collaborated with Arie de Geus at Dutch Shell, borrowed de Geus' notion of the learning organization + People can continuously expand their capacity to learn and be productive + New patterns of thinking are nurtured + Collective aspirations are encouraged, and + People are encouraged to see the “whole picture” together. Senge identified five components of a learning organization. They are: +Personal responsibility +Self reliance +Mastery of Mental models +Team learning -“a spirit of advocacy to a spirit of enquiry” +Systems thinking The psychology of strategic management informal, intuitive, non-routinised, and involving primarily oral, 2way communications “feeling”, “judgement”, “sense”, “proportion”, “balance”, “appropriateness”. Criticisms of strategic management marketing myopia In 2000, Gary Hamel coined the term strategic convergence Ram Charan, aligning with a popular marketing tagline, believes that strategic planning must not dominate action. "Just do it!", Journals/Magazines devoted primarily to Strategic Management +Strategic Management Journal +Harvard Business Review +Long Range Planning +The Economist +MIT Sloan Management Review +Academy of Management Journal Module Content + Mission + Vision + Business Definition + Environmental Threat and Opportunity Profile (ETOP) + Industry Analysis + Strategic Advantage Profile (SAP) + Competitor Analysis + Market Analysis + Environmental Analysis and Dealing with Uncertainty + Scenario Analysis + SWOT Analysis Vision, Mission and Business Definition Whether you are starting a new company or improving an existing one, you should define its purpose for existence. Then it is important to have a mission, plans and a vision for your company or business enterprise. Questions you may have include: +What factors are in the purpose of a business? +How do you define a mission? +What about a business concept? Vision/Mission Statements +Statements that explain who we are o Type of organization o Products/services o Needs we fill +Statements that explain our direction, our purpose, our reason for being o What difference do we make? +Statements that explain what makes us unique o Values o People o Combination of products and services Major Components of the Strategic Plan / Down to Action Strategic Plan Mission Vision Initiatives Measures Targets AI1 M1 M2 T1 T1 Evaluate Progress What we want to be Goals Objectives Action Plans Why we exist What we must achieve to be successful O1 AI2 M3 T1 O2 AI3 Specific outcomes expressed in measurable terms (NOT activities) Planned Actions to Achieve Objectives Indicators and Monitors of success Desired level of performance and timelines VISION : Desired future state; the aspiration of the Organization What are our Dreams and Aspirations? Where do we want to go? What do we want to look like in 5, 10, 15 years? • How the organization wants to be perceived in the future – what success looks like • An expression of the desired end state • Challenges everyone to reach for something significant – inspires a compelling future • Provides a long-term focus for the entire organization • A guiding philosophy • Consistent with organizational value • Influenced by the strengths and weaknesses of the business Components of a Vision Statement +Core ideology o Core Values - timeless guiding principles o Core Purpose - reason for being +Envisioned future o Big Hairy Audacious Goals (BHAG) - clearly articulated goals o Vivid description - a graphic description of what success and the future will be like +Recognition of service to stakeholders o Owners/creditors o Employees o Customers Essentials of good Business Vision Statement o Should significantly stretch the resources and capabilities of the firm o Should inspire people in the organization to achieve things they never thought possible o Should unite people in the organization toward the pursuit of one common goal VISION STATEMENTS +McDonald’s +To give each customer, every time, an experience that sets new standards in value, service, friendliness, and quality. +NASDAQ +To build the world’s first truly global securities market . . . A worldwide market of markets built on a worldwide network of networks . . . linking pools of liquidity and connecting investors from all over the world . . . assuring the best possible price for securities at the lowest possible cost. 57 +Petsmart +To be the premier organization in nurturing and enriching the bond between people and animals. +Wachovia +Wachovia’s vision is to be the best, most trusted and admired financial services company. 58 MISSION :It is the unique purpose or reason for organization’s existence. Overriding purpose in line with the values or expectations of the stakeholders Who are we? What business are we in? eBay We help people trade anything on earth. We will continue to enhance the online trading experiences of all – collectors, dealers, small businesses, unique item seekers, bargain hunters, opportunity sellers, and browsers.” +The mission statement of an organization is normally short, to the point, and contains the following elements: o Provides a concise statement of why the organization exists, and what it is to achieve; o States the purpose and identity of the organization; o Defines the institution's values and philosophy; and o Describes how the organization will serve those affected by its work. Good Mission Statements Focus on limited number of goals Stress major policies and values Define major competitive spheres within which the company will operate by defining the: Industry. Products and applications. Competence. Market-segment Geographical Vertical limit Examples – Good and Bad Mission Statements NASA To Explore the Universe and Search for Life and to Inspire the Next Generation of Explorers Does a good job of expressing the core values of the organization. Also conveys unique qualities about the organization. Walt Disney To Make People Happy Too vague and and unclear. Need more descriptive information about what makes the organization special. +MISSION STATEMENTS +Bristol-Myers Squibb +Our mission is to extend and enhance human life by providing the highest-quality pharmaceuticals and health care products. +GlaxoSmithKline +GSK’s mission is to improve the quality of human life by enabling people to do more, feel better and live longer. 64 +Merck +The mission of Merck is to provide society with superior products and services by developing innovations and solutions that improve the quality of life and satisfy customer needs, and to provide employees with meaningful work and advancement opportunities, and investors with a superior rate of return. +Wipro +The mission is to be a full-service, global outsourcing company. 65 Customers Products Services Markets Technology Employees Mission Elements Survival Growth Profit Public Image Self-Concept Philosophy Importance of Mission Benefits from a strong mission Unanimity of Purpose Resource Allocation Mission Organizational Climate Focal point for work structure Mission Statement Evaluation Matrix Organization Name Organization 1 Organization 2 Customers Products Services Markets Concern for Survival, Growth, Profitability Technology Mission Statement Evaluation Matrix Organization Name Organization 1 Organization 2 Philosophy SelfConcept Concern for Public Image Concern for Employees Vision vs. Mission +The vision is more broad and future oriented – the goal on the horizon +The mission is more focused – how you will get to the horizon GOAL: General statement of Aim or Purpose. It is an open ended statement of what one wishes to accomplish with no quantification and no time frame for completion. • Describes a future end-state – desired outcome that is supportive of the mission and vision. • Shapes the way ahead in actionable terms. • Best applied where there are clear choices about the future. • Puts strategic focus into the organization – specific ownership of the goal should be assigned to someone within the organization. • May not work well where things are changing fast – goals tend to be long-term for environments that have limited choices about the future. Developing Goals • Cascade from the top of the Strategic Plan – Mission, Vision, Guiding Principles. • Look at your strategic analysis – SWOT, Environmental Scan, Past Performance, Gaps . . • Limit to a critical few – such as five to eight goals. • Broad participation in the development of goals: Consensus from above – buy-in at the execution level. • Should drive higher levels of performance and close a critical performance gap. Reorganize the entire organization for better responsiveness to customers We will partner with other businesses, industry leaders, and government agencies in order to better meet the needs of stakeholders across the entire value stream. Manage our resources with fiscal responsibility and efficiency through a single comprehensive process that is aligned to our strategic plan. Improve the quality and accuracy of service support information provided to our internal customers. Establish a means by which our decision making process is market and customer focus. Maintain and enhance the physical conditions of our public facilities. OBJECTIVE : Quantification or more precise statement of objective Definable: It should defined to compare the performance Quantifiable: It should be expressed in terms of “Value Or Market share” ( Avoid Vague terms such as “increase, improve or maximize”) Achievable: e.g. To increase sales of product globally by 30% in real terms within 5yrs. To increase market share for the product in the India from 10%-15% over 2yrs +Relevant - directly supports the goal +Compels the organization into action +Specific enough so we can quantify and measure the results +Simple and easy to understand +Realistic and attainable +Conveys responsibility and ownership +Acceptable to those who must execute +May need several objectives to meet a goal GOALS Very short statement, few words Broad in scope Directly relates to the Mission Statement Covers long time period (such as 10 years) OBJECTIVES Longer statement, more descriptive Narrow in scope Indirectly relates to the Mission Statement Covers short time period (such 1 year budget cycle) GOAL To be No. 1 in the market OBJECTIVE Increase market share by 15% in three years STRATEGY i) Increase product promotion ii) Design product pricing iii) Penetration iv) New market development v) Product-Service mix vi) Quality improvement Business Definition +A Business Definition is a clear statement of the business the firm is engaged in or is planning to enter. What is our Business in precise way: +“We are in the beauty enriching Business” (Helen and Curtis) +“ We are in the Business of Computing Technology” (Intel) +“We are Watch makers of the nation” (HMT) +“We are in the transportation business” (TELCO) Business Definition Abell’s Framework http://www.12manage.com/methods_abell_three_dimensional_business_definition.html +Business Definition Statements +Define the ‘space’ that the business wants to create for itself in competitive terrain +Broadly specifies the opportunities that the business may exploit within the space and the threats it may encounter from rival firms in course of time +Must be defined in broad ways, keeping changing customer tastes and aspirations in mind Product Oriented V/S market Oriented Company Product Definition Market Definition Railways We run railways We are a people and Goods mover Oil Company We Sell Gasoline We supply energy Film Producing Company We make movies We make entertainment Air conditioning company We make air conditioners We provide climate control in the home Publishing Company We produce and sell books We distribute information Copying Company We make copying equipments We help improve office productivity + Questions to be examined before defining nature and scope of operations 1) Who is the customer? Where is the customer located, how to reach the customer, how does the customer buy etc. 2) What does the customer buy? 3) What does the customer consider value? CORE COMPETENCE : Resources, Processes, Skills and Experience, which provide superior Competitive Advantage STRATEGY : Long Term Direction STRATEGIC : Combination of Resources, ARCHITECTURE Processes and Competencies to put strategy in action CONTROL : Monitoring of Action Steps to : (a) Assess effectiveness of Strategies & Action (b) Modify Strategies & Action as necessary VALUES What do we prize? What drives our business? What are our criteria for making ethical decisions? Guiding Principles and Values • Every organization should be guided by a set of values and beliefs • Provides an underlying framework for making decisions – part of the organization’s culture • Values are often rooted in ethical themes, such as honesty, trust, integrity, respect, fairness, . . . . • Values should be applicable across the entire organization • Values may be appropriate for certain best management practices – best in terms of quality, exceptional customer service, etc. Examples of Guiding Principles and Values We obey the law and do not compromise moral or ethical principles – ever! We expect to be measured by what we do, as well as what we say. We treat everyone with respect and appreciate individual differences. We carefully consider the impact of business decisions on our people and we recognize exceptional contributions. We are strategically entrepreneurial in the pursuit of excellence, encouraging original thought and its application, and willing to take risks based on sound business judgment. We are committed to forging public and private partnerships that combine diverse strengths, skills and resources. MARKETS Which markets should we be in? Which markets do we need to create? What should be our basic Customer Orientation? CORE COMPETENCIES What are we good at? What do we need to be good at? How can we leverage our competencies into products and services for market we serve? PRODUCTS & SERVICES What kinds of products and services should we provide for the markets we serve? How do we use these products to carve out a market niche? BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT What Threats and Opportunities do we face from Environmental Factors? How do we track Key Environmental Activities and Trends? STAKEHOLDERS Which group of individuals are affected by the way we do business? How do we establish win-win relationship with our stakeholders? Stakeholders +individuals and groups who have an interest in a firm’s performance and an ability to influence its actions +Interest in performance coupled with ability to influence the firm through their decision to support the firm or not – companies have important relationships with their stakeholders. 95 96 Strategic Leaders +Individuals who practice strategic leadership – making sure that decisions are made that will ensure their firm’s success. o Example: Steve Jobs & Apple o The CEO o The Board of Directors o Both are responsible for setting the organizational culture. 97 Strategic Leaders though many different people may be involved, the final responsibility for effective use of the strategic management process rests with the firm’s top-level strategic leaders (i.e., the chief executive officer and the top management team). In addition, it is important to note that the best strategic leaders as well as all others throughout the firm also act ethically. 98 CRITICAL RESOURCES Which are the Critical Resources do we need to do business? What should we do to ensure a steady supply of these Resources? ENVIRONMENTAL THREAT AND OPPORTUNITY PROFILE ETOP ANALYSIS PEST ANALYSIS SWOT ANALYSIS WHY ETOP?? o Helps organization to identify O-T o To consolidate and strengthen organization’s position o Provides the strategists of which sectors have a favourable impact on the organization. o Organization knows where its stands with respect to its environment. o Helps in formulating appropriate strategy ETOP ANALYSIS Economic factors: + General economic condition. + Rate of inflation. + Interest rate/Exchange rate. Technological factors: + Source of technology. + Technological development. + Impact of technology. ETOP ANALYSIS Socio cultural factors : Environmental factors: o Demographic characteristics. o Weather change o Social attitudes. o Climatic change. o Education level , awareness, and consciousness of rights. o Demand related factors. o Suppliers related factors. ETOP ANALYSIS Political factors : o Political system. o Political structure , its goals and stability. o Government policies , degree of intervention Legal factors : o Policies related to licensing , monopolies. o Policies related to export and import. o Policies related to distribution and pricing. FACTORS COULD INCLUDE Political international trade, taxation policy Economic interest rates, exchange rates, national income, inflation, unemployment, Stock Market Social ageing population, attitudes to work, income distribution Technological innovation, new product development, rate of technological obsolescence Environmental global warming, environmental issues Legal competition law, health and safety, employment law THREAT MATRIX HIGH ATTRACTIVENESS LOW HIGH LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE OPPURINITY MATRIX HIGH ATTRACTIVENESS LOW HIGH LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE PREPARING ETOP o Dividing the environment in different sector. o Analyzing the impact of each sector on the organization. o Subdividing each environmental sector into sub factor. o Impact of each sub sector on organization in form of a statement. ETOP: Pros and Cons Pros Cons o Help to determine the key factor of threats and opportunities. o It doesn’t show the interaction between the factors. o Good tool to qualify the factors related to company’s strategy. o It can’t reflect the dynamic environment. o Can consider many factors for each special case. o It’s a subjective analysis tool. Case study : MILLIPORE About Millipore Millipore is a multinational, high technology bioscience company that provides technologies, tools and services for the development and production of new therapeutic drugs. The company, headquartered in Bedford, Mass., serves the worldwide life science research, biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries. Mission and Vision Millipore exists to provide technology, tools and services for the development and production of new therapies and drugs that will enable people to live longer, healthier lives. Our vision is to become the partner of choice for critical tools, technology and services used in the discovery, development and manufacture of new therapeutic compounds. MILLIPORE PRODUCT LINE 1. Life science. 2. Drug discovery. 3. Sample preparations. 4. Lab water. 5. Process development. 6. Bio production. 7. Process monitoring. Factors Impact of each Sector Economic •Fluctuation in exchange rate •Increasing rate of inflation •Worsening economic conditions Technological Strong R&D program •Market Leaders •Better solution providers •New “ Intergral”-2008 Political No significant change. Legal Following FCPA (Foreign corrupt practices act). •Strict IPR laws - No poaching Socio cultural •No significance change. E T O P O F M I L L I P O R E Factors Competitive Demand related Governmental policies Impact of each sector Competition particularly from low priced products . Downfall in demand due to low priced products . Containment of rising healthcare cost. No excise duty only vat for product manufactured in India. E T O P O F M I L L I P O R E OPPORTUNITY MATRIX • EB and CB • Provide customized protocol support. •Market leaders – brand value and brand • Dedicated service team.(Toll Free numbers). awareness. •Special offers with OEM’s.(Agilent). • Large installation base. • Saturation point of market is far away • New low budget product lines. • New markets are opening THREAT MATRIX • Competition particularly from low priced • IPR laws are not so strong in INDIA. products. • Switching over form process patent to product •Concentration majorly on big Fishes. patent • Patent law not well defined • Expensive products. • Lack of geographical division (remote areas). • Bad rapport with customers (unsatisfied • Poor dealer network. customer). • Low investment in marketing. Industry Analysis: The Fundamentals +The objectives of industry analysis +From environmental analysis to industry analysis +Porter’s Five Forces Framework +Applying industry analysis +Industry & market boundaries +Identifying Key Success Factors Objectives of Industry Analysis + To understand how industry structure drives competition, which determines the level of industry profitability. + To assess industry attractiveness + To use evidence on changes in industry structure to forecast future profitability + To formulate strategies to change industry structure to improve industry profitability + To identify Key Success Factors From Environmental Analysis to Industry Analysis The national/ international economy Technology Government & Politics The natural environment THE INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT • Suppliers • Competitors • Customers Demographic structure Social structure •The Industry Environment lies at the core of the Macro Environment. •The Macro Environment impacts the firm through its effect on the Industry Environment. Profitability of US Industries Median return on equity (%), 1999-2002 Pharmaceuticals Tobacco Household & Personal Products Food Consumer Products Medical Products & Equipment Beverages Scientific & Photographic Equipt. Commercial Banks Publishing, Printing Petroleum Refining Apparel Computer Software Electronics, Electrical Equipment Furniture Chemicals Computers, Office Equipment Health Care 26.8 22.0 20.5 20.3 18.8 18.8 16.5 16.0 14.3 14.3 14. 3 13.5 13.3 13.3 12.8 11.8 11.5 Gas & Electric Utilities 10.5 Food and Drug Stores 10.3 Motor Vehicles & Parts 9.8 Home Equipment 9.5 Railroads 9.0 Hotels, Casinos, Resorts 8.0 Insurance: Life and Health 7.6 Building Materials, Glass 7.0 Metals 6.0 Semiconductors & Electronic Components 5.8 Insurance: Property & Casualty 5.3 Food Production 5.3 Telecommunications 3.5 Forest and Paper Products 3.5 Communications Equipment (4.0) Airlines (34.8) The Determinants of Industry Profitability 3 key influences: +The value of the product to customers +The intensity of competition +Relative bargaining power at different levels within the value chain. The Spectrum of Industry Structures Perfect Competition Oligopoly Duopoly Monopoly Concentration Many firms A few firms Two firms One firm Entry and Exit Barriers No barriers Product Differentiation Homogeneous Product Potential for product differentiation Perfect Information flow Imperfect availability of information Information Significant barriers High barriers Porter’s Five Forces of Competition Framework SUPPLIERS Bargaining power of suppliers INDUSTRY COMPETITORS POTENTIAL Threat of ENTRANTS new entrants Threat of Rivalry among existing firms SUBSTITUTES substitutes Bargaining power of buyers BUYERS The Structural Determinants of Competition BUYER POWER • Buyers’ price sensitivity • Relative bargaining power THREAT OF ENTRY •Capital requirements •Economies of scale •Absolute cost advantage •Product differentiation •Access to distribution channels •Legal/ regulatory barriers •Retaliation INDUSTRY RIVALRY •Concentration •Diversity of competitors •Product differentiation •Excess capacity & exit barriers •Cost conditions BUYER POWER • Buyers’ price sensitivity • Relative bargaining power SUBSTITUTE COMPETITION • Buyers’ propensity to substitute • Relative prices & performance of substitutes Threat of Substitutes Extent of competitive pressure from producers of substitutes depends upon: + Buyers’ propensity to substitute + The price-performance characteristics of substitutes. The Threat of Entry Entrants’ threat to industry profitability depends upon the height of barriers to entry. The principal sources of barriers to entry are: + Capital requirements + Economies of scale + Absolute cost advantage + Product differentiation + Access to channels of distribution + Legal and regulatory barriers + Retaliation Bargaining Power of Buyers Buyer’s price sensitivity Relative bargaining power • Cost of purchases as % of buyer’s total costs. • How differentiated is the purchased item? • How intense is competition between buyers? • How important is the item to quality of the buyers’ own output? • Size and concentration of buyers relative to sellers. • Buyer’s information . • Ability to backward integrate. Note: analysis of supplier power is symmetric Rivalry Between Established Competitors The extent to which industry profitability is depressed by aggressive price competition depends upon: + Concentration (number and size distribution of firms) + Diversity of competitors (differences in goals, cost structure, etc.) + Product differentiation + Excess capacity and exit barriers + Cost conditions o Extent of scale economies o Ratio of fixed to variable costs Profitability and Market Growth ROI (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Return sales Return onon sales Return investment Return onon investment Cash flow/Investment Cash flow/ Investment -5 0 to 5% 5% to Less than -5% < -5% -5% to 0-5% to 00 to 5% 5% to10% 10%> 10% Over 10% ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH OF MARKET DEMAND The Impact of Unionization on Profitability None Percentage of employees unionized 1%-35% 35%-60% 60-75% >75% ROI (%) 25 24 23 18 19 ROS (%) 10.8 9.0 9.0 7.9 7.9 ROI = Return on Investment ROS = Return on Sales Applying Five - Forces Analysis Forecasting Industry Profitability + Past profitability a poor indicator of future profitability. + If we can forecast changes in industry structure we can predict likely impact on competition and profitability. Strategies to Improve Industry Profitability • What structural variables are depressing profitability • Which can be changed by individual or collective strategies? Drawing Industry Boundaries : Identifying the Relevant Market + What industry is BMW in: o World Auto industry o European Auto industry o World luxury car industry? + Key criterion: SUBSTITUTABILITY o On the demand side : are buyers willing to substitute between types of cars and across countries o On the supply side : are manufacturers able to switch production between types of cars and across countries + May need to analyze industry at different levels for different types of decision Identifying Key Success Factors Pre-requisites forsuccess success Pre-requisites for What do customers want? How does the firm survive competition Analysis of competition Analysis of demand • Who are our customers? • What do they want? • What drives competition? What are drives •• What the competition? main • What are the dimensions of main competition? dimensions of competition? •How • Howintense intenseis iscompetition? competition? • Howcan canwe weobtain obtainaasuperior •How superior competitive competitive position? position? KEY SUCCESS FACTORS Identifying Key Success Factors Through Modeling Profitability: The Airline Industry Profitability Income ASMs = Yield = x Load factor - Unit Cost Revenue RPMs • Strength of competition on routes. • Responsiveness to chaanging market conditions • % business travelers. • Achieving differentiation advantage x RPMs ASMs - • Price competitiveness. • Efficiency of route planning. • Flexibility and responsiveness. • Customer loyalty. • Meeting customer requirements. ASM = Available Seat Miles Expenses ASMs • Wage rates. • Fuel efficiency of planes. • Employee productivity. • Load factors. • Administrative overhead. RPM = Revenue Passenger Miles Identifying Key Success Factors by Analyzing Profit Drivers: Retailing Sales mix of products Return on Sales Avoiding markdowns through tight inventory control Max. buying power to minimize cost of goods purchased ROCE Max. sales/sq. foot through: *location *product mix *customer service *quality control Sales/Capital Employed Max. inventory turnover through electronic data interchange, close vendor relationships, fast delivery Minimize capital deployment through outsourcing & leasing SUMMARY: What Have We Learned? Forecasting Industry Profitability + Past profitability a poor indicator of future profitability. + If we can forecast changes in industry structure we can predict likely impact on competition and profitability. Strategies to Improve Industry Profitability • • What structural variables are depressing profitability? Which can be changed by individual or collective strategies? Defining Industry Boundaries • • Key criterion: substitution The need to analyze market competition at different levels of aggregation (depending on the issues being considered) Key Success Factors • Starting point for the analysis of competitive advantage Strategic Advantage Profile (SAP) OCP VRIO FRAMEWORK +Resource-asset, competency, skill,knowledge e.g. patents, brand name, +Value: Does it provide competitive advantage? +Rarity: Do other competitors possess it? +Imitability: Is it costly for others to imitate? +Organisation: Is the firm organised to exploit the resource? VRIO Steps +Identify firms resources-S&W +Combine firms strength into specific capabilities +Appraise-profit potential, sustainable competitive advantage, ability to convert it to a profitable proposition +Select strategy -firm’s resources& capability relative to external opportunity +Identify resource gaps and invest in upgrading weaknesses Strategic Advantage Profile (SAP) - Steps 1) 2) 3) The organization should identify the factors which are relevant for determining success in the industry concerned. At the next level, the organization should measure its performance on these factors in comparison to its competitors. Based on the comparison, the organization can find out whether it has advantage or disadvantage in terms of various factors. An advantage is the situation which helps the organization to do better than its competitors. A disadvantage is the situation which affects the competitive position of the organization adversely. Further, advantages/disadvantages should be measured in terms of degree because all advantages/disadvantages may not be equal. After identifying advantages, the next step is to measure their sustainability because any advantage may turn into disadvantage due to change in environmental factors. For example, many companies had competitive advantage in pre-liberalized era which turned into disadvantage because of entry of new competitors in post-liberalized era. Strategic Advantage Profile (SAP) SAP is a summary statement, which provides an overview of the advantages and disadvantages in key areas likely to affect future operations of the firm. It is a tool for making a systematic evaluation of the strategic advantage factors, which are significant for the company in its environment. The following is an example of the SAP analysis of a hypothetical company Capability Factor Competitive strengths / Weakness •Finance High cost of capital, reserves & surplus •Marketing Fierce competition, company position secure •Operational Excellent -parts & components available •Personnel Quality of management & personnel par with competition •General High Quality experienced top management -take proactive stance Competitor Analysis Concerns of an Org.’s competitive analysis 1. Who are our competitors? 2. How can our competitors be grouped meaningfully? 3. What are our competitors’ strengths and weaknesses? 4. What are our competitors’ objectives and strategies? 5. How are our competitors likely to react to changes in the marketing environment? Concerns of an Org.’s competitive analysis (1) Competitor identification 1. Who are our competitors? Similar specific-same product, technology and target market Similar general-same product area, but different segments e.g. Haagen daze vs. Wall’s Different specific-same need satisfied by different means e.g. Eurostar vs. British airway Different general-competing for discretionary spend e.g. holiday vs. new car Concerns of an Org.’s competitive analysis (2) 2. How can our competitors be grouped meaningfully? Different characteristics for identifying Strategic groupings Source: Adapted from Wilson et al. (1992). Concerns of an Org.’s competitive analysis (3) 3. What are competitive strengths and weaknesses • Requires use of various information sources. • Consider in terms of critical success factors: e.g. manufacturing, technical and financial strength, relationships with supplier and customer, its market and segment, product range, its volume, cash and profits etc. • Information can be used to plan and launch attack. Concerns of an Org.’s competitive analysis (4) 4. What are our competitors’ objectives and strategies? Objectives – related to cash generation, market share, technological leadership, quality recognition Find clues in product portfolio. Strategy - related to its positioning, marketing mix etc. etc. Concerns of an Org.’s competitive analysis (5) 5. How are our competitors likely to react to changes in the marketing environment? Learn by experience Not easy to predict its reaction due to: its cost structures, positions, product life cycle, industrial position etc. relative market Useful information about competitors Source: Wilson et al. (1992). Competitor Analysis Future Objectives How do our goals compare to our competitors’ goals? Where will emphasis be placed in the future? What is the attitude toward risk? What drives the competitor? Competitor Analysis Future Objectives How do our goals compare to our competitors’ goals? Where Current will emphasis be Strategy placed inHow the future? are they currently What is the attitude competing? toward risk? Does this strategy support changes in the competitive structure? What is the competitor doing? What can the competitor do? Competitor Analysis Future Objectives What does the competitor believe about itself and the industry? How do our goals compare to our competitors’ goals? Where Current will emphasis be Strategy placed in the future? How are we currently What is the attitude competing? Assumptions toward risk? Does thisDo strategy we assume the future support changes in the will be volatile? competition structure? What assumptions do our competitors hold about the industry and themselves? Are we assuming stable competitive conditions? Competitor Analysis Future Objectives What are the competitor’s capabilities? How do our goals compare to our competitors’ goals? Where Current will emphasis be Strategy placed in the future? How are we currently What is the attitude competing? Assumptions toward risk? Does this Dostrategy we assume the future supportwill changes in the be volatile? competition Whatstructure? assumptions do our competitors hold about the Capabilities industry and themselves? What are my competitors’ Are we operating under strengths and weaknesses? a status quo? How do our capabilities compare to our competitors? Dynamic Head-to-Head Rivalry Future Objectives How do our goals compare to our competitors’ goals? Where Current will emphasis be Strategy placed in the future? How are we currently What is the attitude competing? Assumptions toward risk? Does this Dostrategy we assume the future supportwill changes in the be volatile? competition Whatstructure? assumptions do our Capabilities competitors hold about the industry and themselves? What are my competitors’ Are we operating strengths under and weaknesses? a status quo? How do our capabilities compare to our competitors? Response What will our competitors do in the future? Where do we have a competitive advantage? How will this change our relationship with our competition? Market Analysis The role of market analysis is to determine the attractiveness of market and to understand its evolving opportunities and threats as they relate to internal strength and weakness of the firm Dimensions of Market Analysis (David A. Aaker) +Market size (current and future) +Market growth rate +Market profitability +Industry cost structure +Distribution channel +Market trends +Key success factors Market Size The size of the market can be evaluated based on: + Present sales + Potential sales (if expanded) Some information sources for determining market size: + Government data + Trade associations + Financial data from major players + Customer survey Market Growth Rate A simple means of forecasting the market growth rate is to extrapolate (infer or estimate) historical data into the future. While this method may provide a first-order estimate, it does not predict important turning points. A better method is to study growth drivers such as demographic information and sales growth in complementary products. Ultimately, the maturity and decline stages of the product life cycle will be reached. Some leading indicators of the decline phase include: + Price pressure caused by competition + Decrease in brand loyalty + Emergence of substitute products + Market saturation + Lack of growth drivers Market Profitability While different firms in the market will have different levels of profitability, the average profit potential for a market can be used as a guideline for knowing how difficult it is to make money in the market. Industry Cost Structure The cost structure is important for identifying key factors for success. To this end, Porter’s value chain model is useful for determining where value is added and for isolating the costs. The cost structure also is helpful for formulating strategies to develop a competitive advantage. For example, in some environments the experience curve effect can be used to develop a cost advantage over competitors. Experience Curve Diagram Distribution Channel The following aspects of the distribution system are useful in a market analysis: + Existing distribution channel o can be described by how direct they are to the customer. + Trends and emerging channels o new channels can offer the opportunity to develop a competitive advantage. + Channel power structure o for example, in the case of a product having little brand equity, retailers have negotiating power over manufacturers and can capture more margin. Market Trends Changes in the market are important because they often are the source of new opportunities and threats. The relevant trends are industrydependent, but some examples include changes in price sensitivity, demand for variety, and level of emphasis on service and support. Regional trends also may be relevant. Key Success Factors o Elements that are necessary in order for the firm to achieve its marketing objectives. few examples are: o Access to essential unique resources o Ability to achieve economies of scale o Access to distribution channels o Technological progress It is important to consider that key success factors may change over time, especially as the product progresses through its life cycle. Analysis of the External Environment The External Environment General Environment +Dimensions in the broader society that influence an industry and the firms within it: o Demographic o Economic o Political/legal o Sociocultural o Technological o Global The General Environment: Segments and Elements Analysis of the External Environments +General environment o Focused on the future +Industry environment o Focused on factors and conditions influencing a firm’s profitability within an industry +Competitor environment o Focused on predicting the dynamics of competitors’ actions, responses and intentions Analysis of the Internal Environment Competitive Advantage +Firms achieve strategic competitiveness and earn above-average returns when their core competencies are effectively: o Acquired. o Bundled. o Leveraged. +Over time, the benefits of any value-creating strategy can be duplicated by competitors. Competitive Advantage (cont’d) +Sustainability of a competitive advantage is a function of: o The rate of core competence obsolescence due to environmental changes. o The availability of substitutes for the core competence. o The difficulty competitors have in duplicating or imitating the core competence. Internal Analyses’ Outcomes Unique resources, capabilities, and competencies (required for sustainable competitive advantage) By studying the internal environment, firms identify what they can do The Context of Internal Analysis +Global Economy o Traditional sources of advantages can be overcome by competitors’ international strategies and by the flow of resources throughout the global economy. +Global Mind-Set o The ability to study an internal environment in ways that are not dependent on the assumptions of a single country, culture, or context. +Analysis Outcome o Understanding how to leverage the firm’s bundle of heterogeneous resources and capabilities. Components of Internal Analysis Leading to Competitive Advantage and Strategic Competitiveness Creating Value +By exploiting their core competencies or competitive advantages, firms create value. +Value is measured by: o Product performance characteristics o Product attributes for which customers are willing to pay +Firms create value by innovatively bundling and leveraging their resources and capabilities. +Superior value Above-average returns Creating Competitive Advantage +Core competencies, in combination with productmarket positions, are the firm’s most important sources of competitive advantage. +Core competencies of a firm, in addition to its analysis of its general, industry, and competitor environments, should drive its selection of strategies. The Challenge of Internal Analysis +Strategic decisions in terms of the firm’s resources, capabilities, and core competencies: o Are non-routine. o Have ethical implications. o Significantly influence the firm’s ability to earn aboveaverage returns. The Challenge of Internal Analysis (cont’d) +To develop and use core competencies, managers must have: o Courage o Self-confidence o Integrity o The capacity to deal with uncertainty and complexity o A willingness to hold people (and themselves) accountable for their work Conditions Affecting Managerial Decisions about Resources, Capabilities, and Core Competencies Source: Adapted from R. Amit & P. J. H. Schoemaker, 1993, Strategic assets and organizational rent, Strategic Management Journal, 14: 33. Resources, Capabilities and Core Competencies Discovering Core Competencies Core Competencies Capabilities Resources •Tangible •Intangible + Resources o Are the source of a firm’s capabilities. o Are broad in scope. o Cover a spectrum of individual, social and organizational phenomena. o Alone, do not yield a competitive advantage. Resources +Resources o Are a firm’s assets, including people and the value of its brand name. o Represent inputs into a firm’s production process, such as: + + + + + Capital equipment Skills of employees Brand names Financial resources Talented managers +Types of Resources o Tangible resources + + + + Financial resources Physical resources Technological resources Organizational resources o Intangible resources + Human resources + Innovation resources + Reputation resources Tangible Resources • The firm’s borrowing capacity • The firm’s ability to generate internal funds Organizational Resources • The firm’s formal reporting structure and its formal planning, controlling, and coordinating systems Physical Resources • Sophistication and location of a firm’s plant and equipment • Access to raw materials Technological Resources • Stock of technology, such as patents, trademarks, copyrights, and trade secrets Financial Resources Sources: Adapted from J. B. Barney, 1991, Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage, Journal of Management, 17: 101; R. M. Grant, 1991, Contemporary Strategy Analysis, Cambridge, U.K.: Blackwell Business, 100–102. Intangible Resources Human Resources Innovation Resources Reputational Resources • • • • • • • • • • Knowledge Trust Managerial capabilities Organizational routines Ideas Scientific capabilities Capacity to innovate Reputation with customers Brand name Perceptions of product quality, durability, and reliability • Reputation with suppliers • For efficient, effective, supportive, and mutually beneficial interactions and relationships Sources: Adapted from R. Hall, 1992, The strategic analysis of intangible resources, Strategic Management Journal, 13: 136–139; R. M. Grant, 1991, Contemporary Strategy Analysis, Cambridge, U.K.: Blackwell Business, 101–104. Resources, Capabilities and Core Competencies Discovering Core Competencies Core Competencies Capabilities Resources •Tangible •Intangible +Capabilities o Represent the capacity to deploy resources that have been purposely integrated to achieve a desired end state o Emerge over time through complex interactions among tangible and intangible resources o Often are based on developing, carrying and exchanging information and knowledge through the firm’s human capital Resources, Capabilities and Core Competencies Discovering Core Competencies + Capabilities (cont’d) o The foundation of many capabilities lies in: Core Competencies Capabilities Resources •Tangible •Intangible + The unique skills and knowledge of a firm’s employees + The functional expertise of those employees o Capabilities are often developed in specific functional areas or as part of a functional area. Examples of Firms’ Capabilities Functional Areas Distribution Human resources Management information systems Marketing Management Manufacturing Research & development Capabilities Effective use of logistics management techniques Motivating, empowering, and retaining employees Effective and efficient control of inventories through point-of-purchase data collection methods Effective promotion of brand-name products Effective customer service Innovative merchandising Ability to envision the future of clothing Effective organizational structure Design and production skills yielding reliable products Product and design quality Miniaturization of components and products Innovative technology Development of sophisticated elevator control solutions Rapid transformation of technology into new products and processes Digital technology Resources, Capabilities and Core Competencies Discovering Core Competencies +Four criteria for determining strategic capabilities: o Value Core Competencies Capabilities Resources •Tangible •Intangible o Rarity o Costly-to-imitate o Nonsubstitutability Resources, Capabilities and Core Competencies Discovering Core Competencies + Core Competencies o Resources and capabilities that are the sources of a firm’s competitive advantage: + Distinguish a company competitively and reflect its personality. Core Competencies Capabilities Resources •Tangible •Intangible + Emerge over time through an organizational process of accumulating and learning how to deploy different resources and capabilities. Resources, Capabilities and Core Competencies Discovering Core Competencies + Core Competencies o Activities that a firm performs especially well compared to competitors. Core Competencies Capabilities Resources •Tangible •Intangible o Activities through which the firm adds unique value to its goods or services over a long period of time. Building Core Competencies Discovering Core Competencies Four Criteria of Sustainable Advantages +Four Criteria of Sustainable Competitive Advantage o Valuable capabilities o Rare capabilities o Costly to imitate o Nonsubstituable • • • • Valuable Rare Costly to imitate Nonsubstitutable The Four Criteria of Sustainable Competitive Advantage Valuable Capabilities • Help a firm neutralize threats or exploit opportunities Rare Capabilities • Are not possessed by many others Costly-to-Imitate Capabilities • Historical: A unique and a valuable organizational culture or brand name • Ambiguous cause: The causes and uses of a competence are unclear • Social complexity: Interpersonal relationships, trust, and friendship among managers, suppliers, and customers Nonsubstitutable Capabilities • No strategic equivalent Building Sustainable Competitive Advantage Discovering Core Competencies + Valuable capabilities o Help a firm neutralize threats or exploit opportunities. + Rare capabilities Four Criteria of Sustainable Advantages • • • • Valuable Rare Costly to imitate Nonsubstitutable o Are not possessed by many others. Building Sustainable Competitive Advantage Discovering Core Competencies Four Criteria of Sustainable Advantages + Costly-to-Imitate Capabilities o Historical + A unique and a valuable organizational culture or brand name o Ambiguous cause + The causes and uses of a competence are unclear o Social complexity • • • • Valuable Rare Costly to Imitate Nonsubstitutable + Interpersonal relationships, trust, and friendship among managers, suppliers, and customers Building Sustainable Competitive Advantage Discovering Core Competencies + Nonsubstitutable Capabilities o No strategic equivalent + Firm-specific knowledge + Organizational culture Four Criteria of Sustainable Advantages • • • • Valuable Rare Costly to imitate Nonsubstitutable + Superior execution of the chosen business model Outcomes from Combinations of the Criteria for Sustainable Competitive Advantage Scenario Analysis What is Scenario? Introduction +For Many years, it was believed obtaining accurate forecasts lay in the development of complex, quantitative models. +With just a little more time, a few more equations and a lot more dollars, these models would be able to provide forecast. +Many users have become disillusioned with forecasting models, attempt to predict the future from fancy mathematical manipulations of historical data. Feedback and feed-forward Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase The relations between possible, probable and desired future What is not Scenario? +Scenario is not a forecast, neither a vision +It does not seek numerical precision. It usually provides a more qualitative and contextual description of how the present will evolve in to the future. +It is not assured. Scenario analysis usually tries to identify a set of possible future, each of whose occurrence is plausible Definition of Scenario +Vocabulary: Scenario is an outline of a natural or expected course of events. +Kahn and Weiner: A hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention. +Porter An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be +Ringland: That part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future +Schnaars: Identify plausible future environments that the firm might face. Forecasting and Uncertainty Crude Oil Rigs in US, (Prediction) Crude Oil Rigs in US, (Reality) Future is not continuation of the past necessarily Scenario in Business +22% of “Fortune 1000”, were using scenario analysis in the 1970s +75% of these firms adopted the approach after the oil embargo in 1973 +It is essential to keep the number of factors that are considered to a minimum. Time Horizon +Scenario analysis has been used primarily in long-term forecasting. +Most firms that used scenario analysis employed 5-year horizon. +But in Xerox 15-year Shell, 15-year at least. +The content of scenario becomes progressively more vague as the time horizon lengthens. +The ideal time horizon of scenario analysis is specific to the industry, product or market under consideration. Historical Background +Herman Kahn: was writing scenarios as far back as the 1950s. +“Thinking the Unthinkable” +Shell in 1970s. +SRI (Stanford Research Institute): Future of American Society until 2000. SRi History The Number of Scenarios to Generate +Consensus is that three scenario are best. Although two tend to classified as “good-andbad”, while more than three become unmanageable in the hands of users. Arraying Scenarios + Scenarios are inevitably arrayed over some back-ground themes. + Four background themes: 1-Favorability to the Sponsor: Selecting an optimistic and then an pessimistic. “Surprise-free” or ‘baseline” scenario 2-Probability of Occurrence One of the scenarios is labeled as “most likely”. Scenarios are possibilities, not probabilities. 3-Single, Dominant Issue Sometimes there is a single dominant factor whose outcome is central to the item being forecast. Like economy, government policy. 4-Themes In most business applications there is more than a single unknown. There are many issues which compete, combine and interact with one another to characterize the future. Three scenarios as: Economic expansion, Environmental concern, and Technological domination. Scenario projects could be used for different purposes and with different focuses Characteristic of traditional planning compared with the scenario planning approach Scenario planning is well suited to the task of dealing with paradigmatic, non-linear change Methods of Constructing Scenarios 1-Highly Qualitative Procedures 2-Practical Procedures 3-Cross-Impact Analysis 1-Highly Qualitative Procedures +Kahn: -A simplistic intuition or an expression of bias rather than a careful synthesis and balancing of the analysis with more subtle qualitative considerations. -“Surprise-free” scenario +Godet: -”Exploratory Prospective Analysis” -Holistic and integrative analysis +Durand: -Intuitive analysis Critic: They rely so heavily on intuitive and subjective analysis that they are difficult to implement. 2-Practical Procedures +More practical means of generating scenarios in business environment: -Identifying factors are expected to affect forecasting situation at hand. -Postulating a set of plausible future values for each of these factors. -Selecting a few plausible scenarios from a large number of possible combinations of the values of these factors. +Two Approaches on selecting strategies: -Deductive -Inductive 3-Cross-Impact Analysis +Emerged from early work on the Delphi Technique +It’s Basic philosophy of Cross-Impact is that no development occurs in isolation. Rather, it is rendered more or likely by the occurrence of other events. +Cross-Impact attempts to capture these ‘crossimpacts’ from the judgmental estimates of experts. +Data from experts are then input into a computer simulation or mathematical program. Critic: Judgmental estimates are surely not amenable to any mathematical machinations. Few Comments on Scenarios 1. 2. 3. The most important part of scenario analysis is to think about the problem. The most difficult in scenario analysis is how to reduce a large number of potential future outcomes to a few plausible scenarios. The number of possible scenarios grows quickly as the number of factors increases. Two methods: -Inductive: If the number of factors is small (<5), examine every possible scenarios from this set. -Deductive: When many factors are considered, rather than examining every possible combination, set the tone of scenarios. It means to decide whether the scenarios will represent an optimistic and pessimistic views of the future, or characterize some dominant themes. Advantages of Scenario +Scenario writing is a planning instrument. +It is also an effective learning tool. Thinking in scenarios helps us understand the logic of developments, clarify driving forces, key factors, key players and our potential to exert an influence. +It proceeds more from the gut than from the computer. Although it may incorporate the results of quantitative models. +It shows a slight accuracy comparing with other models of forecasting. Specially when uncertainty is high. Scenario as powerful instrument +Brain-compatible format: Scenario thinking matches the way the brain function. Narrative format (images and stories) makes them easily memorable. +Opening-up of divergent thinking: By forcing your mind to think about qualitatively different directions, you train your capability to think the unthinkable. +Complexity-reducing format: Complex business or general environments can be reduced to a manageable amount of uncertainty. +Communicative format: Scenarios are easy to communicate and to discuss. Weaknesses of Scenario If scenarios are powerful, why haven’t they been more widely used? +Uncertainty in conclusions: It does not give one single answer about the future. Therefore it does not provide the security that is often required in decision making. +Counterintuitive to managerial simplicity: It does not accord with the managerial simplicity that says that there is one right answer to every question. Scenario planning is a more holistic or systemic approach to planning than traditional methods. +Soft methods and soft answers: Scenario techniques are usually qualitative, the results are often presented in qualitative terms that fir poorly with traditional numbers-oriented cultures. +Time consuming: Workshop-based methods are time consuming in terms of the number of hours and days the participants need to spend to get thorough results. +Secrecy: Most of Scenarios adopted in the companies are arcane and impractical Scenario Analysis at Shell Strategy • Shell makes use of a strategic planning process in which a series of “what if “ scenarios are created • The management at all levels is made to think strategically about the company’s business environment Shell’s scenario analysis Identify trends and their drivers Develop the what, why and how of different scenarios Identify parameters to monitor the environment Testimonial In early 1986, the price of oil fell to USD 10 per barrel and Shell’s scenario analysis proved successful as it was in a better position than its competitors to face the situation Develop contingent strategies to tackle each scenario • Shell has deployed processes and systems to anticipate future scenarios by analyzing the interplay of environmental factors and its impact on Shell’s business • Scenario analysis presents complex interactions of future in a simplified, easy to understandable form • By picking the more probable scenarios, the company can brace or prepare itself for exploiting future opportunities and challenges • It helps the company in formulating strategy and decide the trade-offs required SWOT Analysis SWOT Analysis Identifying internal strengths (S) and weaknesses (W) and also examining external opportunities (O) and threats (T) S W O T Things the company does well. Internal Things the company does not do well. Conditions in the external environment that favor strengths. External Conditions in the external environment that do not relate to existing strengths or favor areas of current weakness. ©South-Western College Publishing Strengths and Weaknesses INTERNAL Production Costs Marketing Skills Employee Capabilities Financial Resources Available Technology Company/Brand Image Wal- Mart SWOT Analysis Strengths + Wal-Mart is powerful retail brand. + Wal-Mart has grown substantially over recent years and has experienced global expansion. + Wal-Mart has a core competence involving its use of IT to support its international logistics system. + A focused strategy is in place for HRM and development. Wal- Mart SWOT Analysis Weaknesses + Wal- Mart is the World’s largest grocery retailer and control of its empire, despite its IT advantages, could leave it week in some areas due to the huge span of control + Since Wal-Mart sell products across many sectors, it may not have the flexibility of some of its more focused competitors. + The company is global, but has a presence in relatively few countries Worldwide. Opportunities and Threats EXTERNAL Social Technological Demographic Political/Legal Economic Competitive Wal- Mart SWOT Analysis Opportunities + To take over, merge with, or form strategic alliances with other global retailers. + There are tremendous opportunities for future business expansion. + New locations and store types offer Wal-Mart opportunities. + Opportunities exist for Wal-Mart to continue with its current strategy of large, super centres. Wal- Mart SWOT Analysis Threats + Being number one means that Wal-Mart is the target of competition, locally and globally. + Being a global retailer means that Wal-Mart is exposed to political problems in the countries where it has operations. + Intense price competition. TOWS Matrix Four Types of Strategies Threats Opportunities Weaknesses Strengths (TOWS) SO Strategies WO Strategies ST Strategies WT Strategies SO Strategies Threats Opportunities Weaknesses Strengths (TOWS) SO Strategies Use a firm’s internal strengths to take advantage of external opportunities WO Strategies Threats Opportunities Weaknesses Strengths (TOWS) WO Strategies Improving internal weaknesses by taking advantage of external opportunities ST Strategies Threats Opportunities Weaknesses Strengths (TOWS) ST Strategies Using firm’s strengths to avoid or reduce the impact of external threats. WT Strategies Threats Opportunities Weaknesses Strengths (TOWS) WT Strategies Defensive tactics aimed at reducing internal weaknesses and avoiding environmental threats. Strategy Analysis & Choice The TOWS Matrix + + + + List the firm’s key external opportunities List the firm’s key external threats List the firm’s key internal strengths List the firm’s key internal weaknesses Strategy Analysis & Choice The TOWS Matrix + Match internal strengths with external opportunities and record the resultant SO Strategies + Match internal weaknesses with external opportunities and record the resultant WO Strategies Match internal strengths with external threats and record the resultant ST Strategies Match internal weaknesses with external threats and record the resultant WT Strategies + + TOWS Matrix Leave Blank Strengths-S Weaknesses-W List Strengths List Weaknesses Opportunities-O SO Strategies WO Strategies List Opportunities Use strengths to take advantage of opportunities Overcome weaknesses by taking advantage of opportunities Threats-T ST Strategies WT Strategies List Threats Use strengths to avoid threats Minimize weaknesses and avoid threats