The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Chapter I INTRODUCTION Background of the Study Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in average global temperatures. In the current “nutrition,” the consumption of high-calorie, nutrient- poor foods high in fats and sweeteners is increasing throughout the developing world. The nutrition, implicated in the rapid rise of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases worldwide, is rooted in the processes of global change. In order to reduce the harmful effects of global warming and climate change, efforts must be made to reduce GHG emissions. Global change affects the nature of the food supply chain, thereby altering the quantity, type, cost, and desirability of foods available for consumption. Understanding the links between global change and nutrition can thus help policy makers develop policies, including food policies, for addressing the global burden of chronic disease. This case study explores how one of the central mechanisms of global change, the integration of the global marketplace, is affecting eating habits of people by specific food consumption trends in the context of the nutrition. Focusing on middle-income countries, it highlights the importance of three major processes of market integration: the production and trade of agricultural goods, foreign direct investment in food processing and retailing, and global food advertising and promotion. It finds that policies and processes designed to advance the globalization of the world economy in the areas of agriculture, trade, investment, and marketing are shaping dietary trends. Thus the policies designed to integrate the global food market matter for what people eat. 1 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Dietary outcomes also depend on the socioeconomic and well as changes in consumer behavior. The dynamic, competitive forces unleashed as a result of global change facilitate not only convergence in consumption habits (“Coca-Colonization”), but also adaptation to products targeted at different niche markets. This convergencedivergence duality raises the policy concern that global change will exacerbate uneven dietary development between rich and poor. As high-income groups in dynamic marketplace, lower-income groups may well experience convergence toward poor-quality obesogenic diets, as observed in Western countries. Health policy makers should pay greater attention to global change processes and policies in order to address some of the structural causes of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases worldwide, especially among groups with low socioeconomic status. The benefit of leveraging policies designed to integrate global food markets to encourage healthy diets is that relatively small changes at a macro-scale can have relatively large population-wide impacts. Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food systems stability. It will have an impact on human health, livelihood assets, food production and distribution channels, as well as changing purchasing power and market flows. Its impacts will be both short term, resulting from more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, and long term, caused by changing temperatures and precipitation pattern. People who are already vulnerable and food insecure are likely to be the first affected. Global Change is associated changing incomes and lifestyles. In addition, by radically altering the nature of the food supply chain, altering the quantity, type, cost, and desirability of foods available for consumption. 2 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Global Change affects food systems around the world. It changes the availability of and access to food through its effects on food production, procurement, and distribution. Such changes bring about a gradual shift in food culture, dietary consumption patterns, and nutritional status (Kennedy et al. 2004). A better understanding of the link between global change, the food supply, and the nutrition is essential in order to locate potential levers for policy interventions to improve diet quality. Statement of the Problem This case study explores how one of the central mechanisms of global change, the integration of the global marketplace, is affecting specific food consumption trends in the context of the eating habits of people. 1. What are the effects of global change on health and eating habits of the people? 2. Is there an impact of global change on food life-cycle towards the eating habit of people? 3. What are the factors affecting the health of the people? 3 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Significance of the Study Obesity and malnutrition, is becoming an epidemic in some countries and has been linked to heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, and serious diseases. Fast foods typically consist of adverse dietary factors including “Saturated and Trans fat, high glycogenic index, high energy density, and, increasingly, large portion size”. This research sought to address queries raised above and aims to be beneficial to the following: Government agencies, specifically in the Department of Health, to identify the alternative meal planning, preparations and economics. To provide safe, evidence -based dietary advice and management to individuals (in health and disease), as well as to institutions. Although many governments around the world are aware of the problem of chronic disease, the majority do not have comprehensive policies and budgets to develop integrated approaches to their prevention, surveillance, and control. Given the rapidity of the malnutrition. Non -governmental Organizations (NGOs) for developing national health policies. NGOs plays a more important role in lobbying for specific policy actions, conducting research into consumer concerns about obesity and unhealthy diets, and tracking commitments made by governments. Consumers, people who are the beneficiaries’ of natural resources. They should increase their awareness on what they eat and to know their food. Furthermore, results and findings will always be a source of information that can be channeled to other researchers who may have of same interest or may have similar studies in the future. 4 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People CHAPTER II REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND STUDIES Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures. Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in average global temperatures. This is caused primarily by increases in “greenhouse” gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Global Change is driven by series of interacting processes, among which the following are critical in driving the nutrition on eating habits of people: • Liberalization of international food trade; • Liberalization of foreign direct investment; • Global food advertising and promotion; • Emergence of global agribusiness and transnational food companies; and • Retail restructuring (notably the development of transnational supermarkets). Each of these processes is affected by what are termed here “global change policies”: policies that aim to, in some way, integrate local, national, or regional economies further into the global marketplace. These policies can be implemented at a range of scales—from local to global—by a wide range of stakeholders. Different perspectives give rise to an often polarized debate about the impacts of global change on health. Some say global change is good for health; others, that it is problematic. The reality is that global change is likely to bring threats, improving health in some circumstances and damaging it in others. 5 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Global change is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial run-off, precipitation and the interaction of these elements. These conditions determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. The overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production. Global warming would alter natural climate and environmental systems in many ways, leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, a reversal of ocean currents, and changes in precipitation patterns. These changes could impact social-economic activities, with serious implications for the well being of humans long into the future. At the same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus contributing to radioactive forcing. Land use change such as deforestation and desertification, together with use of fossil fuels, are the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide; agriculture itself is the major contributor to increasing methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in earth's atmosphere. Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as 6 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People well as soil properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variability in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. The Earth's average surface temperature has increased by 1 degree F in just over the last century. Consequently, agronomists consider any assessment has to be individually considering each local area. On the other hand, agricultural trade has grown in recent years, and now provides significant amounts of food, on a national level to major importing countries, as well as comfortable income to exporting ones. The international aspect of trade and security in terms of food implies the need to also consider the effects of climate change on a global scale. The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and new or changed insect pest incidence. In Africa and Latin America many rained crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected. Marine life and the fishing industry will also be severely affected in some places. Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops differently from region to region. For example, average crop yield is expected to drop down to 50% in Pakistan according to the UKMO scenario whereas corn production in Europe is expected to grow up to 25% in optimum hydrologic conditions. More favorable effects on yield tend to depend to a large extent on realization of the potentially beneficial effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and increase of efficiency in water use. Decrease in potential yields is likely to be caused 7 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People by shortening of the growing period, decrease in water availability. In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways: Productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops Agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers Environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity Rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and hydraulic amenities. Adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice. They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly because there is lack of information on many specific local regions, and include the uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the effects of technological changes on productivity, global food demands, and the numerous possibilities of adaptation. Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota adjustment. Rapid climate change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less time for optimum natural selection and adaption. Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) have investigated the potential impacts climate change could have on agriculture, and how this 8 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People would affect attempts at alleviating poverty in the developing world. They argued that the effects from moderate climate change are likely to be mixed for developing countries. Food supply Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure. In general, low-latitude areas are at most risk of having decreased crop yields, with low to medium confidence. They concluded that for about a 1 to 3°C global mean temperature increase (by 2100, relative to the 1990-2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low latitudes, and productivity increases in high latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was predicted to: increase up to around 3°C, Very likely decrease above about 3 to 4°C. Most of the studies on global agriculture had not incorporated a number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation. 9 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Effect on Agriculture Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the anticipated climate change. Despite the technological advances in the second half of 20th century, including the Green Revolution, weather and climate are still key factors in determining agricultural productivity in most areas of the world. The predicted changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns, as well as their associated impacts on water availability, pests, disease, and extreme weather events are all likely to affect substantially the potential of agricultural production. Literature on the economics of climate change suggests that although global crop production may be boosted slightly by global warming in the short term (before 2030), it will ultimately turn negative over the longer term. Moreover, the impact of climate change on agricultural production is unlikely to be evenly distributed across regions. Low latitude and developing countries are expected to suffer more from the agricultural effects of global warming, reflecting their disadvantaged geographic location, greater agricultural share in their economies, and limited ability to adapt to climate change In contrast, crop production in high latitude regions will generally benefit from climate change. In a recent global comprehensive estimate for over 100 countries. They predicted that global agricultural productivity would fall by 15.9% in the 2080s if global warming continues unabated, with developing countries experiencing a disproportionately larger decline of 19.7%. Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity. Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food 10 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions. Sea level rise Sea level was projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches). This projection was for the time period 2090-2099, with the increase in level relative to average sea levels over the 1980-1999 periods. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets. Sea level rise due to the collapse of an ice sheet would be distributed non-uniformly across the globe. The loss of mass in the region around the ice sheet would decrease the gravitational potential there, reducing the amount of local sea level rise or even causing local sea level fall. The loss of the localized mass would also change the moment of inertia of the Earth, as flow in the Earth's mantle will require 10–15 thousand years to make up the mass deficit. Crop Production System Cropping systems vary among farms depending on the available resources and constraints; geography and climate of the farm; government policy; economic, social and political pressures; and the philosophy and culture of the farmer. Shifting cultivation (or slash and burn) is a system in which forests are burnt, releasing nutrients to support cultivation of annual and then perennial crops for a period of several years. Then the plot is left fallow to re-grow forest, and the farmer moves to a new plot, returning after many more years (10-20). This fallow period is shortened if population 11 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People density grows, requiring the input of nutrients (fertilizer or manure) and some manual pest control. Annual cultivation is the next phase of intensity in which there is no fallow period. This requires even greater nutrient and pest control inputs. Further industrialization leads to the use of monocultures, when one cultivar is planted on a large acreage. Water resources Water crisis is a general term used to describe a situation where the available water within a region is less than the region's demand. The term has been used to describe the availability of potable water in a variety of regions by the United Nations and other world organizations. Others, for example the Food and Agriculture Organization, said in 2003 that there is no water crisis but steps must be taken to avoid one in the future. The major aspects of the water crisis are allegedly overall scarcity of usable water and water pollution. The negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh the benefits. All of the regions assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North America, Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), and small islands) showed an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems. Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on freshwater. With very high confidence, it was judged that many of these areas, e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa, and north-eastern Brazil, would suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. 12 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Effect on Carbon cycle Models have been used to assess the effect that climate change will have on the carbon cycle. In the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Inter-comparison Project, eleven climate models were used. Observed emissions were used in the models and future emission projections were based on the IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. Unanimous agreement was found among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the land and ocean carbon cycle to absorb human-induced CO2. As a result, a larger fraction of human-induced CO2 will stay airborne if climate change controls the carbon cycle. By the end of the 21st century, this additional CO2 in the atmosphere varied between 20 and 220 ppm for the two extreme models, with most models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. This additional CO2 led to a projected increase in warming of between 0.1 and 1.5 °C. Ozone and UV-B Some scientists think agriculture could be affected by any decrease in stratospheric ozone, which could increase biologically dangerous ultraviolet radiation B. Excess ultraviolet radiation B can directly affect plant physiology and cause massive amounts of mutations, and indirectly through changed pollinator behavior, though such changes are simple to quantify. However, it has not yet been ascertained whether an increase in greenhouse gases would decrease stratospheric ozone levels. In addition, a possible effect of rising temperatures is significantly higher levels of ground-level ozone, which would substantially lower yields. 13 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People ENSO effects on agriculture ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) will affect monsoon patterns more intensely in the future as climate change warms up the ocean's water. Crops that lie on the equatorial belt or under the tropical Walker circulation, such as rice, will be affected by varying monsoon patterns and more unpredictable weather. Scheduled planting and harvesting based on weather patterns will become less effective. Areas such as Indonesia where the main crop consists of rice will be more vulnerable to the increased intensity of ENSO effects in the future of climate change. However, as climate change affects ENSO and consequently delays planting, harvesting will be late and in drier conditions, resulting in less potential yields. Potential effects of global climate change on pests, diseases and weeds A very important point to consider is that weeds would undergo the same acceleration of cycle as cultivated crops, and would also benefit from carbonaceous fertilization. Since most weeds are C3 plants, they are likely to compete even more than now against C4 crops such as corn. However, on the other hand, some results make it possible to think that weedkillers could gain in effectiveness with the temperature increase. Global warming would cause an increase in rainfall in some areas, which would lead to an increase of atmospheric humidity and the duration of the wet seasons. Combined with higher temperatures, these could favor the development of fungal diseases. Similarly, because of higher temperatures and humidity, there could be an increased pressure from insects and disease vectors. 14 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Impact of agriculture on climate change The agricultural sector is a driving force in the gas emissions and land use effects thought to cause climate change. In addition to being a significant user of land and consumer of fossil fuel, agriculture contributes directly to greenhouse gas emissions through practices such as rice production and the raising of livestock; according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the three main causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed over the past 250 years have been fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture. Land use Agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas increases through land use in four main ways: CO2 releases linked to deforestation Methane releases from rice cultivation Methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle Nitrous oxide releases from fertilizer application Together, these agricultural processes comprise 54% of methane emissions, roughly 80% of nitrous oxide emissions, and virtually all carbon dioxide emissions tied to land use. The planet's major changes to land cover since 1750 have resulted from deforestation in temperate regions: when forests and woodlands are cleared to make room for fields and pastures, the albedo of the affected area increases, which can result in either warming or cooling effects, depending on local conditions. Deforestation also affects regional carbon reuptake, which can result in increased concentrations of CO2, the dominant greenhouse 15 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People gas. Land-clearing methods such as slash and burn compound these effects by burning biomatter, which directly releases greenhouse gases and particulate matter such as soot into the air. Livestock Livestock and livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuelintensive farming practices are responsible for over 18% of human-made greenhouse gas emissions, including: 9% of global carbon dioxide emissions 35-40% of global methane emissions (chiefly due to enteric fermentation and manure) 64% of global nitrous oxide emissions (chiefly due to fertilizer use. Livestock activities also contribute disproportionately to land-use effects, since crops such as corn and alfalfa are cultivated in order to feed the animals. Worldwide, livestock production occupies 70% of all land used for agriculture, or 30% of the land surface of the Earth. The environmental impact includes pollution and the use of resources such as fossil fuels, water, and land. According to a 2006 report by the Livestock, Environment And Development Initiative, the livestock industry is one of the largest contributors to environmental degradation worldwide, and modern practices of raising animals for food contributes on a "massive scale" to air and water pollution, land degradation, climate change, and loss of biodiversity. The initiative concluded that "the livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the 16 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global. In 2006 FAO estimated that meat industry contributes 18% of all emissions of greenhouse gasses. Animals fed on grain need more water than grain crops. In tracking food animal production from the feed through to the dinner table, the inefficiencies of meat, milk and egg production range from a 4:1 energy input to protein output ratio up to 54:1. The result is that producing animal-based food is typically much less efficient than the harvesting of grains, vegetables, legumes, seeds and fruits for direct human consumption. The production and consumption of meat and other animal products is associated with the clearing of rainforests, resource depletion, air and water pollution, land and economic inefficiency, species extinction, and other environmental harms. Aquaculture Fish is one of the most nutritional sources of animal protein with additional advantages such as lower fat content and beneficial fatty acids. In spite of this positive nutritional picture, however, the available research indicates that the use of seafood protein as an alternative for red meat in people’s diet is a short-term and inefficient solution; it would not fully address the problem of GHG emissions, and would pose a threat to the sea and ocean biodiversity. Further considerations connected to the use of fish are the high fossil fuel requirements and GHG emissions arising from fishing. The fossilfuel input in fishing is related to the vessels used for seafood extraction, transport and other stages of the fishing industry Effects on Human Health Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly 17 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People through changes in water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy. The effects of climate change to date have been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions. The climate change had altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species ad some infectious disease vectors. increased heat wave-related deaths: the health status of millions of people would be affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrheal diseases; increased frequency of cardiorespiratory diseases due to high concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases. climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall, IPCC expected that benefits would be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries. With very high confidence, they concluded that economic development was an important component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged to be sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change. The manner in which economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the benefits of growth are distributed in society. Examples of other important factors in determining the health of populations were listed as: education, health care, and public-health infrastructure 18 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Specific health impacts Malnutrition Malnutrition would increase due to climate change. Malnutrition is associated with climate variability and change. Drought reduces variety in diets and reduces overall consumption. This can lead to micronutrient deficiencies. The World Health Organization (WHO) conducted a regional and global assessment to quantify the amount of premature morbidity and mortality due to a range of factors, including climate change. Projections were made over future climate change impacts. Limited adjustments for adaptation were included in the estimates based on these projections. Projected relative risks attributable to climate change in 2030 varied by health outcome and region. Risks were largely negative, with most of the projected disease burden due to increases in diarrheal disease and malnutrition. These increases were primarily in low-income populations already experiencing a large burden of disease. Research Hypotheses: H0 There is no significant difference on the effects of global change on environment and the eating habits of the people. H1 There is a significant difference on the effects of global change on environment and the eating habits of the people 19 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Chapter III RESEARCH METHODOLOGY This chapter presents the methodology used by the researcher in the conduct of the study to evaluate the effects of global change on eating habits of people. This further discussed the research design used, the data gathering and instruments. The researcher will gather data through library research, journal, and articles and through the aid of networking sites. Considering on the research questions is raised. Research Design Descriptive method will be used in order to ascertain the status or condition which is in existence at the time of the undertaking. A sample survey will be employed in this research. Questionnaires will be constructed and used. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is used to determine sample test relationships. This method will allow the researcher to analyze the difference between two or more sample means by dividing the total sum squares. It tests the significant differences between classes means, this method is done by analyzing the variances. . 20 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People Chapter IV CONCLUSIONS Climate change is an increasingly significant global challenge and its negative impacts have been already felt in some regions of the world .One of the affected area is the environment especially the agriculture. I believe that the eating habits of people starts form the agricultural products and its by-products. The impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate. However, the impacts are not evenly distributed across the world. Developing countries would bear disproportionately large losses arising from climate change. Some significant adjustments in global agricultural production and trade, and consequently the distribution of income, may be accompanied by the changes of climate. Secondary and tertiary measures may also be beneficial to mitigate the harm from GHGs; however, we are advocating for a primary preventative measure. We must reduce emissions of GHGs, in order to avoid the negative impacts these emissions cause. Promotion of a diet of locally-grown and locally-sourced foods will reduce our emissions of GHGs, thus helping to protect our environment. This will also protect our health, and improve social and economic conditions locally. 21 The Effects of Global Change on the Eating Habits of People REFERENCES Harris, R. L., and M. J. Seid. 2004. Globalization and health in the new millennium. Perspectives on Global Development and Technology 3(1/2): 1–46. Bonanno, A., L. Busch, W. H. Friedland, L. Gouveia, and E. Mingione, eds. 1994. 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