Factors and effects of urban to rural migration: Case study of Kigali city inhabitants’ resettlement in Mayange sector in Bugesera district. [ we will keep updating it] !! Introduction Rural to urban migration is a form of internal migration that refers to the movement of people from the country side to cities usually the capital and secondary cities. In Africa, it is estimated that over 20 million people move from rural to urban areas between 1950s and 1970s (Lall, Selod, & Shalizi, 2006). During 1960s, rural to urban migration was intensive in Europe due to industrial development and job opportunities(Albert & Hárs, 2012). Rural to urban migration in Latin American began 1930s with movement of people from rural areas to the cities (Dufour & Piperata, 2004). The analysis of inter-municipal youth migration flows between 2010-2015 indicated that 9%, 6% and 10% of all total migrants from Mexico, Peru and Ecuador respectively moved from rural areas to urban areas for employment opportunities(Cazzuffi & Fernández, 2018). Rural to urban migration was mainly due to the pull and push factors; push factors included lack of jobs, lack of access to land, famine, drought, various kind of poverty (Macharia, 2003). while pull factors mainly includes employment as very many rural dwellers move from agricultural to industrial and services jobs, high wages, high labor demands, better standards of living, better services and infrastructure provision in urban centers(Helbich & Leitner, 2009). In countries with higher number rural dwellers, agriculture is the common practiced economic activity, with the increasing agricultural mechanization and limited access to credits and technology, as greatly posed as barrier to effective agricultural production and this has led to ruralurban migration. The increasing levels of urbanization in southern countries have severely influenced rural to urban migration (Tacoli, 2003). This has resulted into shortage of adequate housing, overcrowding and congestion, emergency of slums and informal housing occupation, pollution and supply of unclean water that result into the easy spread of diseases such as dysentery, cholera (Janet &Paul, 2019). In recent years more developing state and governments have embarked on the rural development programs to help slow down the rural urban migration. In 2013, 80% of the governments had policies in place to lower rural to urban and this was reflected as an increase from 38% registered in 1996, according to world population policies(United Nations, 2013). In addition migration generally is a continuous and repeated event rather than a single event and difficult to measure. It also lacks of standard data sources or uniform approach due to the factor that it is studied by the researchers in all social science (National Research Council, 1993). Most of the recent studies have shifted from the rural population movements towards the cities to the reverse situation. Nearly any city has been formed and reorganized by suburbanization process, which have provoked population development to urban fringes. Occupants benefit from a few points of interest of these areas, including better air quality, living close to nature, enjoying attractiveness of landscapes, less traffic, whereas still having great accessibility to the center city (Helbich & Leitner, 2009). Urban to rural migration Due to high level of urbanization the world urban areas have been greatly overcrowded this has increased exposure to environmental hazards, shortage of affordable housing and high cost of land etc…., (Tacoli, McGranahan, & Satterthwaite, 2015). These pose health threats to people and as a result people result to move safer areas. In European and American cities have under gone a change their spatial patterns where they have been changed and organized by urbanization process (Helbich & leitner, 2009). In the United States, suburbanization started in 1970s and was also observed in Europe in the early 1990s, for example in Spain and Italy(Caglar, 2015). This has been characterized by rapid movement of people from the urban area to the country side which is referred to urban exodus(Helbich & Leitner, 2009). Over 40% of all people living in urban areas consider leaving the areas for environment that are less crowded. This has stimulated population movement to urban fringes and probably rural areas (Green, 2013). In the modern world the leading of urban to rural migration is mainly the need to efficient access to public goods like good air quality, living close to nature and enjoying attractiveness of landscapes, less traffic etc..,(Helbich & Leitner, 2009). Other than the basic economic activities are increasing in rural areas such as industrialization, rural electrification, quality infrastructure, high agricultural productivity and postharvest processing. These are mainly through lowering transport costs and economies of scale. Although, with the best of these economic activities, rural areas do not provide such a potential source of labor. Therefore, this limited labor supply in the country side will require rural in migration (Brown & Wardwell, 2013). Urban to rural migration was not applied to one country like the USA, but it also exists in other countries like Japan, Norway, Sweden, Italy, Denmark etc..,. Each of these countries have experienced either a reversal in direction or a decrease in the number of rural to urban migrants. This instance emerged in France, Germany, and Netherlands in 1960 but spread to the countries in 1970 (Brown & Wardwell, 2013). In the past 2-3 years, large US cities have experienced a huge wave of urban to rural migration of almost 27,000 residents aged 25 to 39 residents mainly referred to as millennials moving from urban to rural areas. In 2018, 38,000 millennials migrated from New York City to the country side due to presence cheap and school (John&Paul, 2019). In Rwanda urban to rural was considered the second most common type of migration in 2011 making up to 27% of all internal population movement and rural were destination of 61% of internal migrants since 2011 (World Bank, 2017). Kigali city districts are also the main origin of migrants moving elsewhere, 43% of all recent migrants in the bordering centers came from Kigali city (World Bank, 2017). Problem statement. Kigali city established in 1907 as Germany colonial outpost and trading center, is the capital and the largest city of Rwanda. It is located between 290 44’0’’ E, 290 43’0’’ E and 20 35’0’’ S, 20 37’0’’E. Kigali city covers 730km 2 (Manirakiza, Mugabe, Nsabimana, & Nzayirambaho, 2019). The administration reform of 2005 made Kigali city of five provinces of Rwanda (Twarabamenye, 2020). It is made up of three districts of Gasabo, Nyarugenge, and Kicukiro with 35 sectors (City of Kigali, 2013), 161 cells and 1061 villages (Manirakiza et al., 2019). It is among the fastest growing cities in Africa with a strong population annual growth rate of 4.0 %( NISR, 2012). The population of Kigali city was approximately 1.3 million people with gross density of 1780 people per km2 in2018 (City of Kigali, 2020). Urban extent was 13880ha in 2014 increasing at an average annual rate of 4.9 % since 1999. The urbanized areas was occupied the of the land area 12.1% while the remaining 87.9% is rural area(Baffoe, Malonza, Manirakiza, & Mugabe, 2020). The current development of Kigali is guided by different zoning regulations established in 2008(Manirakiza et al., 2019) .And revised in 2020 (Enrico et al., 2020). The aim of Kigali zoning regulations was to provide a consistent framework implementing the city’s updated master and directing public and private sector growth (Enrico et al., 2020). The goals, definitions and regulations ensure that construction proceeds in logical pattern in the city. Kigali zoning regulations included: agricultural zone that aim to protect the sustainability of agricultural in the city by preventing farm land from being converted to non-farming uses, natural conservation zone that aims to conserve designated open space in its natural state, industrial zone that regulate industrial uses within the various industrial zones of Kigali, public facilities regulations that apply public facilities provided for the wellbeing of the community within various government owned or privately owned the in Kigali city and mixed-use and commercial zones in Kigali are governed by regulations and guidelines that apply to mixed-use and commercial uses within the city’s various commercial zones (Enrico et al.,2020). Etc.., According to Kigali master plan 2020, the existing land uses in Kigali included; residential, commercial, public facilities, industries, natural area agriculture, open space, water bodies, infrastructure and special uses. Agricultural, natural area, residential and infrastructure take up most of Kigali land area with 457.95 km2, 123.61 km2, 80.87 km2 and 27.99 km2 respectively (City of Kigali, 2020). To meet the housing standards, an individual should request for construction permit from city of Kigali one stop center. All arrangements of the Rwanda building code, counting the securing of essential building permits and certificates of inhabitance, along with the necessities of all other appropriate developments codes or directions, might be met to set up an adornment private unit (Baffoe et al., 2020). The adornment unit should fulfill these standards: living area of an accessory residential unit shall occupy a minimum of 9 m2 per single occupancy and 15 m2 for double occupancy, in no case shall the floor area exceed fifty(50%) percent of the gross livable floor area of total structure, etc..., (Enrico et al.,2020). The median cost of construction of residential houses is 12 millions Rwandan Francs with variation of approximately 3% in either direction, accounting for 60% of the total value of the property each of housing owners possess (City of Kigali, 2020). Regardless of the fact that some Kigali districts like Nyarugenge has over 700000 confirmed clay deposits (MINICOM,2011), construction materials are still expensive in Kigali city. Housing affordability in East African cities like Kigali is commonly impacted by low household income, high construction costs, limited access to bank loans, construction materials, and investment taxes (Uwayezu & Vries, 2020). This suggests a two pattern of migration out of Kigali. On the one hand, due to the high cost of living ( high housing costs), relatively young, low to middle income city dwellers are pushed out of the capital and settle in its rural fringes, close enough to benefit from the city’s economic density (World Bank, 2017). On the other hand, city dwellers who are relatively older and uneducated, and for whom the city does not provide sustainable employment [Not complete idea !!]. Males are less likely to leave but this effect is mediated by age: as men grow older they are more likely to leave city. Between 2002 and 2012, the population the sectors bordering Kigali increased 40%, compared to 30% overall increase (World Bank, 2017). The migration to the outskirts of the capital reflects both a push towards density and a push out of the city: 54% residents in Kigali are poor and low income, earning between 38 and 225$ per month. Around 13% of them are extremely poor, earning less than 38$ per month. Access to decent housing has thus been a major concern for the city’s poor, low and middle residents (Uwayezu & Vries, 2020). It appears that other factors, such as the higher price of land in Kigali and stricter building codes are driving expansion into neighboring districts, rather than a lack of land. This results in difficulty obtaining permits and high construction costs (World Bank, 2017). These factors have sparked growth on the city's outskirts. There are also reasons to believe that zoning has stifled both population densification and the growth of some economic activities in Kigali, where stricter zoning standards were adopted earlier than in other cities (informal sector). This is because the misalignment of zoning and existing land use can necessitate extensive resettlement and redevelopment (as seen in some of Kigali's settlement upgrades), and in some cases increases the risk of displacing the urban poor. This is due in part to the fact that the adopted zoning standards, which include building regulations, minimum plot sizes, and maximum plot coverage ratios, limit both residential and commercial activities. This is likely to drive some investors, as well as general economic activity, to areas where zoning has not yet been completed and/or planning codes are not strictly enforced (World Bank, 2017). People choose to live in a specific neighborhood for a variety of reasons, including the availability of basic social infrastructure (e.g., schools, health centers, water and electricity), the affordability of the land, the type of construction material used, and the overall view of the site. The ease of obtaining a building permit, as well as social cohesion, are also important(Baffoe et al., 2020). We need to add some sentences about the consequences of the migration Example 1: the achievement of the urbanisation goals as stated in the NST1 and Vison 2050 may not be possible if people are leaving Kigali city! Example 2: what about impacts on land use in the destination areas, speculative land market and land deprivation for the existing landowners, etc. Example 3: positive aspects of this migration for the destination areas !! , etc. Another short text is needed: it should be about the destination areas for people who migrate from Kigali city towards the neighbouring rural areas. Bugesera should be mentioned, so that it becomes possible to introduce Mayange sector as the study area. Research Objectives Main objective The main objective of this study is to analyse the determinants of urban to rural migration between Kigali city and rural neighbourhoods and their social, economic and environmental effects. This study will be carried out in Bugesera district, Mayange sector which is one of the destination areas for the migrants from Kigali city. Specific objectives 1. To ascertain main factors influencing the migration of Kigali city inhabitants towards the neighboring rural Districts 2. To analyze the pulling factors for the migration of Kigali city inhabitants to Mayange sector. 3. To identify possible social, economic and environmental effects of population migration from Kigali city to Mayange sector. 4. To suggest strategies for mitigating negative effects resulting from this migration Research questions 1. What are the main factors that influence the movements of people from Kigali city to its neighboring districts? 2. What are the pulling factors that attract people from Kigali city to mayange sector? 3. What impacts have the migration of Kigali dwellers had on the availability and affordability of land and housing in mayange sector? 4. What are possible social, economic and environmental effects of population migration from Kigali city to Mayange? 5. What are the effective strategies to minimize negative effects caused by migration of people from Kigali to mayange sector? Study area Improvement is needed: Make a brief presentation of the study area in relation to Bugesera District, and point out the issues of the current movement of people towards that areas. The study area of our research is Mayange sector, it is one of 15 sectors that make up Bugesera district. It located between 2011’34’’S and 3007’19’’E in the center of Bugesera district, bordered by Gashora and Rilima in the east; Nyamata in the north; Musenyi, Mareba and Ngeruka in the west; Kamabuye and Rweru in south. It covers the total surface area of 146.8 square kilometers with seven cells, villages and population of 29835 people with population density of 203 inhabitants per Square kilometer. Many of the residents in Mayange sector are farmers. Research methodology [ Talk about all research methods that you will use in a summarised way, but one by one] See the example: This qualitative study will be based on primary and secondary data sources. Essential information almost spatial information will be collected through interviews, studies by surveys, field observation and coordinate perceptions. The interviews will be based on organized close and openended questions and unstructured questions to enable respondents give reliable information. The respondents will be chosen according to their origin (birth place) location, level of education and jobs due to different levels of education of responders, interviewers had to interpret/translate responses from Kinyarwanda as local language to English due to their prepared semi structured questionnaire. Field observation will be used to identify different development patterns of different fields in the sector like access to the roads and fresh water in many areas, electrification, different infrastructures like markets, hospitals and health centers, schools and universities, industries all achieved by cooperation of private government and private sectors. The fundamental research method for this study is literature review; this mainly included; Books, journal articles, reports, government documents served to review the literature related to urban_ rural migration. The authors are social scientists and geographers both from Rwanda and other part of the world. The data banks and search engines of PDF Drive, Google Scholar and web citation index will also be used to retrieve articles and books. The statistical materials have been found on the website and annual of National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) and World Bank statistics on Rwanda. All these were used in the collection of data. The acquired data from either primary or secondary sources will then be analyzed, manipulated, managed, compiled and disseminated into clear illustrations like maps, tables, graphs and related pictures and discussed further. Data manipulation and analysis will mainly be done using the GIS software. This will include the production of different kinds of maps, tables and graphs like the land use maps. These will be used to in the interpretation of different phenomena of our study. Research matrix Revise it , based on the new research objectives Research objectives To ascertain main factors influencing the migration of Kigali city inhabitants towards the neighboring rural Districts Research questions - What are the main factors that influence the movements of people from Kigali city to its neighboring districts? Research methods and data sources -Interview, surveys by using observations, and questionnaire. - Literature review about urban-rural migration. -review of some government documents and reports about internal migration -review of documents about the general development of Kigali neighbor hood Expected data - Factors influencing the migration of Kigali city inhabitants towards the neighboring rural districts. Impacts To analyze the pulling factors for the migration of Kigali city inhabitants to Mayange sector. To identify possible social, economic and environmental effects of population migration from Kigali city to Mayange sector. - - What are the pulling factors that attract people from Kigali city to mayange sector? What are possible social, economic and environmental effects of population migration from Kigali city to Mayange -review of some government documents and reports about internal migration -review of documents about the general development of Kigali neighbor hood -Interview, surveys by using observations and questionnaire. -Literature review about the cost of living in Kigali city -review of documents about the general development of Kigali city (master plans.) -community based interviews based on the cost of utilities - Cost of land and housing in mayange sector. Cost of construction materials in mayange sector. Cost of social services like education and health in mayange sector. Rental costs in mayange sector Movement effects of people moving from Kigali city to the neighboring district. - Possible solutions to the negative effects caused by migration of people from Kigali to neighboring districts. Extent environmental degradation as result of migration from Kigali city to mayange sector Different economic To suggest strategies for mitigating negative effects resulting from this migration - What are the effective strategies to minimize negative effects caused by migration of people from Kigali to mayange sector? -Interview, surveys by using observations, and questionnaire. -Review of literature about the pulling factors to mayange sector. -review of literature about the pushing factors from Kigali city. -Review of documents on the general push and pull factors of urban –rural migration. activities carried out by mayange inhabitants. Difference between the cost of utilities like water, electricity in Kigali city and mayange. Cost of food stuffs in mayange sector and Kigali city To know those negative effects. Possible ways to mitigate negative effects resulting from migration To know measures of government of Rwanda that taken in order to control urban to rural migration this can help to reduce negative effects. Albert, F., & Hárs, Á. (2012). Social impact of emigration and rural-urban migration in Central and Eastern Europe. Final Report-Hungary, EU, Budapest. doi: http://ec. europa. eu/social/BlobServlet. Baffoe, G., Malonza, J., Manirakiza, V., & Mugabe, L. (2020). Understanding the concept of neighbourhood in Kigali City, Rwanda. Sustainability, 12(4), 1555. Brown, D. L., & Wardwell, J. M. (2013). New directions in urban–rural migration: The population turnaround in rural America: Elsevier. Caglar, A. (2015). Urban migration trends, challenges and opportunities in Europe. World Migration Report. 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