Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com 402: Strategic Management Accounting Course Teacher: Md.Monowar Hossain MBA,FCIA,CIPFA(UK), FCPA,FCS,ACA,FCMA GM & Head of Internal Control and Compliance (ICC) AGRANI BANK LIMITED Email: md.monowar@gmail.com Page # 2 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com First edition : August - 2015 Second edition : October - 2015 Third edition : March – 2016 Fourth edition : October-2016 Subject Code :SMA 402 Strategic Management Accounting Professional Level –IV Course Objectives: To provide the students with an in-depth knowledge of management accounting to make them competent to prepare and analyses accounting data, apply it to a range of planning, control and decision-making situations and adopt it to accommodate changes. On completion of this course they will be able to: a. b. c. d. e. apply management accounting techniques in planning, control and decision-making situations. apply and evaluate alternative methods of investment appraisal. apply and evaluate techniques for allocating and managing resources. discuss and evaluate performance of strategic management accounting decisions. apply quantitative models for management planning and control. Class Plan Class No. 01 02 & 03 Code Topics 402.01 Capital Budgeting 402.02 Advanced Capital Budgeting Topics Details 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 04 402.03 Responsibility Accounting and Transfer Pricing in Decentralized Organization 05 & 06 402.03 Responsibility Accounting and Transfer Pricing in Decentralized Organization (continuing) 07 402.04 Measuring Organizational Performance 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. Capital Budgeting- An Investment Concept; Capital Budgeting Process; Cash Flow Estimation; Capital Budgeting Evaluation Methods: (i) Discounted Cash Flow Methods and (ii) Non-discounted Cash Flow Methods; The Ranking of Investment Projects; Post-investment Audit. The Effect of Depreciation on After-Tax Cash Flow; Sensitivity Analysis for Capital Budgeting Decisions Under Uncertainty; Inflation in the Capital Budgeting Process; Ranking Multiple Capital Projects; Ranking Projects Under Capital Rationing; Capital Budgeting in the Contemporary Manufacturing Environment; Strategic Cost Management and Capital Budgeting; Behavioral Issues in Capital Budgeting. Decentralization; Advantages and Disadvantages of Decentralization; Responsibility Accounting System; Types of Responsibility Centres; Traditional vs. Contemporary Responsibility Accounting; Limitations of Traditional Responsibility Accounting: Activity Based Management. Transfer Pricing: Transfer Price; Objectives of Transfer Price; Transfer Pricing Methods: (i) Cost-Based Transfer Prices, (ii) Market-Based Transfer Prices, (iii) Negotiated Transfer prices, (iv) Dual Transfer Pricing; Choosing the Right Transfer Pricing Method; Transfer price for Service Departmens; Multinational Transfer pricing; Behavioral Implications of Transfer Pricing. Traditional Financial Performance Measures: Divisional Profits, Cash Flow, Return on Investment, Residual Income; Page # 3 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com 08 402.05 Total Quality Management 09 402.06 Managing Productivity 10 402.07 Inventory Management and JIT 11 402.08 Quantitative Models for Planning and Control 12 402.09 Management Control 13 & 14 402.10 The Balanced Scorecard, Benchmarking, EMA and Six Sigma 34. Limitations of Traditional Methods for Evaluating Segment performance; 35. Non-financial Performance Measures; 36. Throughput as a Non-financial performance Measure; 37. Activity-Based Costing and performance Evaluation; 38. Performance Evaluation in Multinational Selling. 39. Definition of Quality; 40. TQM Implementation Guidelines; 41. Types of Conformance; 42. Costs of Quality43. Types of Quality Cost (QC), 44. Distribution of QC, 45. Reporting Quality Costs; 46. TQM in Service Organizations; 47. TQM and Management Accountants. 48. Definition Productivity; 49. Measuring Productivity: Partial and Total; 50. Measuring Changes in Activity Efficiency: 51. Activity Productivity Analysis, 52. process productivity Analysis; 53. Quality and Productivity. 54. Pull-System, 55. Setup and carrying costs, 56. The JIT Approach, 57. Due-date Performance, 58. The JIT Solution, 59. Avoidance of Shutdown and Process Reliability60. The JIT Approach; 61. Discounts and Price Increases, 62. JIT Purchasing Versus Holding Inventories; 63. JIT’s Limitations 64. Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRP-II). 65. Linear Programming 66. Effects of Constraints, 67. Linear Programming Requirements, 68. Optimal Solution under LP using Graph and simplex, 69. Critical Path Method; 70. Network Models: 71. PERT; 72. PERT-Cost Analysis; 73. Queuing theory; 74. Decision Tree Analysis; 75. Discounted Expected Value of Decision, 76. Game theory and investment analysis, 77. Transportation model, 78. shadow price and 79. Sensitivity analysis. 80. Definition of Management Control; 81. Objectives of Management Control; 82. Operational Control vs. Management Control; 83. Design of Management Control Systems: 84. Informal Systems and Formal Systems; 85. Open and closed Loop Control System, 86. Feedback: 87. Positive and Negative Feedback; 88. Behavioral Aspects of the Control process. 89. Balanced Scorecard: 90. Measuring Total Business unit performance – 91. The BSC – (i) Financial perspective – (ii) customer perspective – (iii) internal business process perspective – (iv) Learning and Growth perspective. Page # 4 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com 15 402.11 Strategic risk, Operational risk, Reporting risk and Compliance risk 92. Four perspectives and their sufficiency. 93. Benchmarking: 94. Meaning – 95. Benefits of Benchmarking analysis – 96. Types of benchmarking – 97. Benchmarking process – 98. TQM and Benchmarking – 99. Management accounting for benchmarking. 100. Environmental Management Accounting (EMA) – 101. Six Sigma. 102. Definition and distinguishing among strategic risk, operational risk, reporting risk, and compliance risk for a given organization. 103. The external risks related to the organization's strategic objectives, the impact of those risks, and the necessity for risk management. 104. Potential shifts in the external environment and implications of such shifts for a given organization's exposure to risk. 105. An appropriate risk response strategy, including procedures for managing risk, for a given organization. 106. Reporting mechanisms for compliance and risk issues (e.g. risk reporting, whistle blowing) within the context of a given organization. 107. Methods of measuring organizational performance in relation to internal operational goals set by the planning and budgeting function. Review Class /Exam Best practices and emerging issues in performance measurement in a given industry (e.g. strategy mapping, target setting, performance-based budgeting). Texts Books 1. Advanced Management Accounting 3rd Edition – Kaplan, R. S. and A. A. Atkinson. 1998 (Prentice–Hall). 2. Cost Management: Strategic for Management Decisions - Hilton, R. W., M. W. Maher, and F. H. Selto, 2003. 3. Cost Accounting, - L. Gayle Rayburn (6th edition) 4. Managerial Accounting: R.H. Garrison (10th edition) 5. Management Science - Turburn & Merdith (6th edition) Reference Books 1. Cost Management - Blocher, Chen & Lin (1st edition) - 1999 2. Cost Management: Hansen and Mowen (4th edition) 3. Cost Accounting: Barfield, Raiborn and Kinney (3rd edition) 4. Introduction to Management Accounting – C.T. Horngren (12th edition) Page # 5 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com CMA Professional Level –IV 402: Strategic Management Accounting Class No. 1 402.01 Capital Budgeting Capital is the stock of assets that will generate a flow of income in the future. Capital Budgeting- An Investment Concept; Capital Budgeting Process; Cash Flow Estimation; Capital Budgeting Evaluation Methods: Discounted Cash Flow Methods and Non-discounted Cash Flow Methods; The Ranking of Investment Projects; Post-investment Audit. Capital budgeting - is the planning process for allocating all expenditures that will have an expected benefit to the organization for more than one year. Capital budgeting is a process used by companies for evaluating and ranking potential expenditures or investments that are significant in amount. Capital budgeting is a process used by companies for evaluating and ranking potential expenditures or investments that are significant in amount. The large expenditures could include the purchase of new equipment, rebuilding existing equipment, purchasing delivery vehicles, constructing additions to buildings, etc. The large amounts spent for these types of projects are known as capital expenditures. Capital budgeting usually involves the calculation of each project's future accounting profit by period, the cash flow by period, the present value of the cash flows after considering the time value of money, the number of years it takes for a project's cash flow to pay back the initial cash investment, an assessment of risk, and other factors. Capital budgeting is a tool for maximizing a company's future profits since most companies are able to manage only a limited number of large projects at any one time. Capital Budgeting-An Investment Concept: Investment refers to an outlay of funds on which management expects a return. An investment creates value for shareholders when expected returns from investment exceed its cost. Making decisions having significant future benefits or costs for various entities and their stakeholders. Capital Expenditure refers to long term commitment of resources that provide future benefits to business. Why investment is made? Expansion Plants, Growth Strategies, Capacity Increase Increase of the efficiency of the manufacturing facilities Deploying of Fixed Assets, Copy Rights, Franchises, licenses, Patents Establishing new brands, new lines of business, new products Opening new offices, new factories, overseas branches Finance Manager is concerned with Planning and Financing investment decisions. Financing Decisions relate to determination of amount of long term finance and decision on sources for financing the same. Investment decisions also termed as "Capital Budgeting Decisions" involve Cost-Benefit Analysis. Investment decisions are based on careful consideration of factors like profitability, safety, liquidity, solvency, etc. Capital Budgeting Decisions o Cost reduction decisions - (Should a new equipment be purchase in order to reduce costs?) o Plant expansion decisions -(Should a new plant, warehouse, or other facility be acquired in order to increase capacity and sales?) o Equipment selection decisions -(Would machine A, machine B, or machine C be the most cost-effective?) o Lease or buy decisions - (Should new plant facility be leased or purchased?) o Equipment replacement decisions - (Should old equipment be replaced now or later?) Page # 6 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com Screening decisions – whether the proposed project meets some preset standards of acceptance Preference decisions – relate to selecting from among several competing courses of action Should we accept the machine? yes , if cost reduction promises a return of 20% before tax Which machine should replace an existing machine on the assembley line? Characteristics of Business Investment • Most business investments involve depreciable assets - which have little or no resale value at the end of their useful lives, thus any returns provided by such assets must be sufficient to: – provide a return on the original investment – return the total amount of the original investment itself • The returns on most business investments extend over long periods of time - the time value of money techniques must be employed Time Value of Money Which account? Interest 45% capitalized yearly Interest 40% capitalized quarterly year 1 X Beginning Interest End Y beginning interest End year 2 1,450 1,000 450 1,450 Q1 1,000 100 1,100 Q2 1,100 110 1,210 Page # 7 Q3 1,210 121 1,331 Q4 1,331 133 1,464 1,464 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com Future Value Present Value FV = PV ( 1 + i )n PV = FV / ( 1 + i ) n FV - Future Value i – interest rate n – number of periods PV - Present Value i - interest n – number of periods Capital Budgeting Process: 1. 2. 3. 4. Generating ideas—the most important part of the process. Analyzing individual proposals—including forecasting cash flows and evaluating the project. Planning the capital budget—this will take into account a firm’s financial and real resource constraints; it will decide which projects fit into the firm’s strategies. Monitoring and post-auditing—comparing actual results with predicted results and explaining the differences. This is very important; it helps improve the forecasting process and focuses attention on costs or revenues that are not meeting expectations. Complexity of Capital Budgeting Process The budgeting process needs the involvement of different departments in the business. Planning for capital investments can be very complex, often involving many persons inside and outside of the company. Information about marketing, science, engineering, regulation, taxation, finance, production, and behavioral issues must be systematically gathered and evaluated. The authority to make capital decisions depends on the size and complexity of the project. Lower-level managers may have discretion to make decisions that involve less than a given amount of money, or that do not exceed a given capital budget. Larger and more complex decisions are reserved for top management, and some are so significant that the company's board of directors ultimately has the decision-making authority. Like everything else, capital budgeting is a cost-benefit exercise. At the margin, the benefits from the improved decision making should exceed the costs of the capital budgeting efforts. Capital budgeting is the allocation of funds to long-lived capital projects. A capital project is a long-term investment in tangible assets. The principles and tools of capital budgeting are applied in many different aspects of a business entity’s decision making and in security valuation and portfolio management. A company’s capital budgeting process and prowess are important in valuing a company. Basic principles of Capital Budgeting • Decisions are based on cash flows. • The timing of cash flows is crucial. • Cash flows are incremental. • Cash flows are on an after-tax basis. • Financing costs are ignored. Capital budgeting is the process by which the financial manager decides whether to invest in specific capital projects or assets. In some situations, the process may entail in acquiring assets that are completely new to the firm. In other situations, it may mean replacing an existing obsolete asset to maintain efficiency. During the capital budgeting process answers to the following questions are sought: • What projects are good investment opportunities to the firm? • From this group which assets are the most desirable to acquire? • How much should the firm invest in each of these assets? Page # 8 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com Components of Capital Budgeting Initial Investment Outlay: It includes the cash required to acquire the new equipment or build the new plant less any net cash proceeds from the disposal of the replaced equipment. The initial outlay also includes any additional working capital related to the new equipment. Only changes that occur at the beginning of the project are included as part of the initial investment outlay. Any additional working capital needed or no longer needed in a future period is accounted for as a cash outflow or cash inflow during that period. Net Cash benefits or savings from the operations: Terminal Cash flow: This component is calculated as under:(The incremental change in operating revenues minus the incremental change in the operating cost = Incremental net revenue) minus (taxes) plus or minus (changes in the working capital and other adjustments). It includes the net cash generated from the sale of the assets, tax effects from the termination of the asset and the release of net working capital. The Net Present Value technique: Although there are several methods used in Capital Budgeting, the Net Present Value technique is more commonly used. Under this method a project with a positive NPV implies that it is worth investing in. Example: A company is studying the feasibility of acquiring a new machine. This machine will cost $350,000 and have a useful life of 3 years after which it will have no salvage value. It is estimated that the machine will generate operating revenues of $300,000 and incur $75,000 in annual operating expenses over the useful life of 3 years. The project requires an initial investment of $15,000 in working capital which will be recovered at the end of the 3 years. The firm’s cost of capital is 16%. The firm’s tax rate is 25%. Depreciation is not considered. Solution: Initial Investment is $350,000 Initial Net Working Capital is $15,000 Present Value of the annual operating cash flow after tax = ($300,000-$75,000) x (1-0.25) x PVIFA(16%,3years) = $225,000 x 0.75 x 2.2459 = $378,996 Note: The number 2.2459 can be obtained by using an ordinary calculator. Procedure to be followed: For Year 1, divide 1 by 1.16 = 0.8621 For Year 2, the calculator screen shows 0.8621, press the = key, you will get 0.7432 For Year 3, the calculator screen shows 0.7432, press the = key, you will get 0.6406 Add up all the three to get 2.2459 Since the asset will not have any salvage value at the end of the third year we need not calculate the Present Value. Present Value of the net working capital at the end of the project = $15,000 x PVIFA(16%,3rd year) = $15,000 x 0.6406 = $9,609 Net Present Value = ($ 350,000) + ($ 15,000) + $ 378,996 + $ 9,609 = $ 23,605 Since the NPV is positive it is feasible to purchase the equipment. Popular methods of capital budgeting include (1) Net Present Value (NPV), (2) Internal Rate of Return (IRR), (3) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and (4) Payback Period. Page # 9 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com Cash Flow Estimation: Estimating the cash flows is the most important part of the capital budgeting process. Cash flow estimation is a must for assessing the investment decisions of any kind. • New or Expansion Project • Other Cash Flow Estimation Issues • Replacement Project There are two basic types of projects, Expansion Type of Project and Replacement. In either of these two, we are concerned with the additional cash flows that will be provided. Expansion Replacement For the expansion project, this is straight forward. For the replacement type project, the additional In both types of projects we will have three cash flows are those that occur as a result of the categories of incremental cash flows: new project, in other words, the incremental cash (1) The Initial outlay/investment flows. From here onwards the term incremental (2) The Annual after-tax operating cash flows and will be used in both cases. (3) The terminal cash flows. Capital Budgeting Steps For a potential projecti. Forecast the project cash flows ii. Estimate the cost of capital iii. Discount the future cash flows at the cost of capital iv. Find NPV of project = PV of future cash flows - required investment, and accept if NPV > 0. A cost that has been incurred and may be related to a project but should not be a part of the decision to accept/ reject a project sunk cost The cash flows that the asset of project is expected to generate over its life incremental cash flows The cost of not choosing another mutually exclusive project by accepting a particular project opportunity cost • • • The effects on other parts of the firm externalities Cash Flow Estimation Need to estimate incremental after tax cash flows that the project is expected to generate. General form: Cash Flow = Incremental Net Income + Depreciation Other "special" cash flows - Initial costs - Extra ending or terminal cash flows at the end of the project's expected useful life. The specific cash flows that should be considered in a capital budgeting decision relevant cash flows Page # 10 Externalities - the effects on other parts of the firm. ex: a loss of sales in one retail store because another store opens in the same area Relevant Cash flows - specific cash flows that should be considered in a capital budgeting decision. only cash flows that change if the project is accepted should be included un the capital budgeting analysis. A sunk cost is an irrelevant cash flow October 17, 2016 The problem with using a risk adjusted cost of capital when trying to adjust for projects that are more risky or less risky than a firms average project is that these adjustmen ts are extremely subjective and difficult to justify Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com Basic Principles of Cash Flow Estimation Incremental principle: The cash flow of a project must be measured in incremental terms. To ascertain a project's incremental cash flow one has to look at what happens to the cash flows of the firm with the project and without the project. The difference between the two reflects the incremental cash flows attributable to the project. In estimating the incremental cash flows of a project, the following guidelines must be consider in mind: • Consider all incidental effects • Ignore sunk costs • Include opportunity costs • Question the allocation of overhead costs • Estimate working capital properly Separation principle There are two sides of a project: (1) The investment (or asset) side (2) The financing side The cash flows associated with these sides should be separated. Example: Suppose a firm is considering a 1 year project that requires an investment of $1,000 in fixed assets and working capital at time 0. The project is expected to generate a cash inflow of $ 1,200 at the end of the year 1 (only cash flow). The project will be financed entirely by debt carrying an interest rate @ 15% and maturity after 1 year. Assume that the project is in tax free sector. Financing side: Investment side: Time Cash flow Time Cash flow 0 + 1,000 0 - 1,000 1 - 1,150 1 + 1,200 Cost of capital : Rate of Return : @15% @20% Post-tax principle Cash flow should be measured on an after-tax basis. This is used to bring out the project cash flows with accuracy. Consistency principle Once you adopt an accounting principle or method, you should continue to follow it consistently in future accounting periods. Initial investment: Long-term funds invested in the project. This is equal to: Fixed assets + working capital margin (this represents the portion of current assets supported by long-term funds). Operating cash inflow: Profit after tax+ Depreciation + Other noncash charges + Interest on long-term borrowings (1-Tax Rate). Terminal cash inflow: Net salvage value of fixed assets + Net recovery of working capital margin. Initial outlay What is the cash flow at "time 0" ? General Steps: (Purchase price of the asset) Add:( shipping and installation costs) (Depreciable assets) Add: (Investment in working capital) Net Initial Outlay Page # 11 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com For expansion projects, this will consist of the cash flows resulting from acquiring the new asset and will consist of: (1) The Purchase price of the new asset (2) Installation costs of the new asset e.g. transportation, shipping, handling etc. (3) Increases in working capital requirements e.g. inventory i.e. raw materials, finished goods etc. (4) After-tax non-capital expenditures e.g. costs to train employees to operate asset (5) Investment tax credit (ITC) given by government due to the nature of the company's business. (This ITC could be given at any time during the project's life). Note - the sum of the cash flows at (1). And (2). above is equal to the recorded value of the new asset in the company's books. (i.e. the value at which the asset will be depreciated). For the replacement project, we would also have to incorporate: (6) those after-tax cash flows resulting from the sale of the existing asset. This is determined as follows: (1)Proceeds of sale. (2)Less: Current Book Value. (3)Profit/Loss (4)Less: Tax/Tax Credit (5)Profit/Loss after tax (6)Add: Current Book Value xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxx/(xxx) xxx/(xxx) xxx/(xxx) xxxxxxxx (7)After tax cash inflow (5) + (6) xxxxxxxx OR (1) Proceeds of sale xxxxxxxx (2) Less: Current Book Value xxxxxxxx (3) Profit/Loss xxx/(xxx) (4) Tax/Tax Credit xxx/(xxx) (5) After tax cash inflow (1) - (4) xxxxxxx Investment in Net Operating Working Capital Working Capital (net) = Current Assets - Current Liabilities Most new projects require additional short-term (current) assets and often additional current liabilities, such as Additional receivables from increased credit sales. Additional inventories (raw materials) necessary to produce additional new products. Additional trade credit (accounts payables) and taxes and wages payable. Any needed increase in Net Working Capital is an outflow of cash, but these outflows are recovered by the end of the project. Annual after-tax operating cash flows ( ^ = incremental and T = Tax rate) These cash flows occur on a yearly basis throughout the life of the new project. In practice, the yearly cash flows will not be constant but will more likely increase due to inflation. However, unless otherwise stated, we are assuming that the yearly cash flows will be constant. (1) ^ Revenues ....xxxxxxxx (2)Less: ^ Costs xxxxxxxx (3)Less: ^ Depreciation xxxxxxxx (4) ^ Profit before Tax xxxxxxxx (5)Less: ^Tax xxxxxxxx (6) ^ Profit after Tax xxxxxxxx (7)Add: ^ Depreciation xxxxxxxx (8)After tax cash flow (6) + (7) xxxxxxxx OR (1) (^ Revenues - ^ Costs)(1 - T) . ....xxxxxxxx (2) Add: (^ Depreciation)(T) . xxxxxxx (3) After tax cash flow (1) + (2) xxxxxxx Note - Interest expenses are not to be included as costs. In other words, they are not to be deducted from ^ Revenues when determining ^ Profit before tax (as normal accounting rules stipulate). Page # 12 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com To do this would be double counting as interest expense (cost of debt) is already accounted for in the cost of capital (which is used to discount the cash flows). Terminal cash flows For both the expansion and replacement projects this will comprises of those cash flows that occur as a result of termination of the new project. These may include: a. The after-tax cash flows resulting from the sale of the new asset (calculation is similar to above, see Initial outlay) b. Recovery of working capital, i.e. the working capital cash outflows experienced in the initial outlay will be recovered c. Any other after-tax clean-up costs Other types of cash flows: 1. Sunk costs These are cash outflows that have already occurred and therefore do not affect the capital budgeting decision. 2. Opportunity costs In Economics, this is referred to as benefits foregone. In other words, opportunity costs are benefits that are not going to be achieved due to a particular action/decision. These must be accounted for in the capital budgeting decision as cash outflows, on an after-tax basis. In a replacement project analysis, we assume that the existing asset will be sold and the new asset bought. However, if that 'old' asset were kept in operation until the end of its useful life, the company may have been able to receive some cash by selling it afterwards. If such a salvage value existed, then the company would not be able to fetch this amount if they went ahead and replaced the old asset with the new one. Therefore, the after-tax effects of this opportunity cost would have to be incorporated in the analysis. Using this example of the asset's foregone salvage value, the procedure for determining the after-tax effect would be identical to that mentioned earlier (see Initial outlay above), except that the result would be an after-tax cash outflow. 3. Externalities In Economics, this refers to the effects of a project on other parts of the firm/company. If the increased revenues or the cost savings derived by a new project result in decreased revenues for other existing projects/products in a company, this effect must be factored into the capital budgeting process. To account for this, the decreased revenues of the existing project/products must be applied to offset/ reduce the increased revenues of the new project (or be treated as increased costs of the new project). Alternatively, the increased revenues or the cost savings derived by the new project could result increased revenues for other existing projects/products in a company. In this case, the increased revenues of the other existing projects/products would be treated as additional increased revenues for the new project. For expansion, replacement or new project analysis, incremental effects on revenues and expenses must be considered. Careful estimation and evaluation of the timing and magnitude of incremental cash flows is very important. Important issues to be kept track of: Sunk cost Opportunity cost Erosion Synergy gains Working capital Capital expenditures Depreciation or cost recovery of assets Q1) How can the senior management play an active role in cash flow estimation? Ans. The senior management should play an active role in coordinating the activities of the various departments. This is because the final cash flow is prepared on basis of the inputs provided by various departments. The purchase and engineering departments may give estimates of initial investment involved. Marketing and product development teams may give sales forecasts. Production personnel, cost accountants, tax experts etc may give an estimate of operating costs. Apart from coordination, the senior management has Page # 13 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com to ensure consideration of all important factors. An important responsibility is to ensure that no deliberate bias is built into the cash flow estimation exercise. Q2) What are the errors that are typically found in estimation of cash flows? Ans. In simplified terms, the two types of errors found are underestimation and overestimation of cash flows. These may be done deliberately or unintentionally. As the term indicates underestimation means being conservative in estimation. Excessive underestimation of the cash inflows after project implementation should be avoided as one will not get a true picture. Consequently, the firm may end up rejecting even good projects. A conscious effort should therefore be made at avoiding underestimation. Q3) What are the instances of underestimation of cash flows? Ans. An example is when one ignores the intangible benefits arising due to the project like brand loyalty, market position etc. Often this occurs as it is difficult to estimate and quantify intangible benefits. Difficulty in estimation can also be cited as the reason for another type of underestimation when one ignores strategic payoffs. Typical examples of such strategic payoffs are the opening up of new markets or investment opportunities consequent to the concerned project being undertaken. Underestimation of cash flows also occurs when one underestimates the salvage value of the project. Q4) What is salvage value of the project? Ans. One of the key assumptions in project finance is that all assets have a useful life. At the end of the useful life, the assets are sold at salvage value. Thus in simplified terms, salvage value means recoverable value. Generally, the net salvage value of fixed assets is assumed to be only 5% of the original value. This is because the value of the fixed assets is assumed to depreciate (lose value) over a period of time due to wear and tear. However, in reality, the actual value realised (salvage value) is higher than the assumed 5%. Thus this assumption of salvage value often leads to underestimation. At the same time one should also be careful that there is no overestimation of cash flows. Q5) What are the causes of overestimation of cash flows? Ans. The common reason for overestimation is that as one tends to be emotionally attached to the project. Under such circumstances a person tends to ignore the risks attached to the project and focuses excessively on the positive aspects of the project. These types of errors can be avoided when the project is screened by more than one person. Another unfortunate reason for overestimation is the intentional over-statement of the benefits of the project. This is quite common when one has to choose from many projects due to lack of finance. Again the experienced senior management can assist in solving both these problems of over and under estimation effectively. Page # 14 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com Q6) How can these problems of over and under estimation be effectively solved? Ans. Often lack of experience is the reason for both overestimation and underestimation of the cash flows. This is exactly where the senior management can contribute effectively by using their valuable experience. The senior management should ensure that the estimates are based on a set of consistent assumptions. In practice, overestimation is far more common than underestimation of cash flows. In such circumstances, it is useful to subject the project to sensitivity analysis as a final step in evaluation. Q7) What is sensitivity analysis? Ans. In simplified terms, sensitivity analysis refers to situations when things go wrong. Sensitivity analysis can be carried out by identifying three (some analysts assume five) most critical assumptions. Typically, one of these factors is sales. Other factors could be cost of raw materials, cost of labor, interest rate etc. The financial model is then checked for negative impacts of these factors. For example, one impact could be drop in sales by 10%, another could be increase in the cost of raw materials & labor by 10%. Q8) When will the project pass the sensitivity analysis? Ans. One should first ascertain the negative impacts of each of the above mentioned factors individually. In case the project is viable even after considering the same, then the project has passed the sensitivity analysis. It will be excellent if the project is viable even after considering the negative impact of all these factors together. In such a case, the project is said to have passed the acid test of sensitivity analysis. An important step in sensitivity analysis is the identification of industry cost drivers. Q9) What are cost drivers of an industry? Ans. All industries have cost drivers. Cost drivers refer to the variables which contribute to a significant cost of the final product. For example, in case of ferroalloy and allied industries where melting is involved the cost of power is an important cost driver as it contributes to nearly 55% of the cost incurred in manufacturing the product. Similarly, in case of IT & financial service companies etc, salaries is a significant cost element. In case of FMCG industry, selling and distribution expenses are important cost drivers. Identification of cost drivers can help in identifying the strategic advantage enjoyed by the project. Problem No. 01 (a) (calculating working capital required) The amount of working capital required by a company can be estimated from information on the value of relevant working capital inputs and outputs, such as raw material costs and credit purchases, together with information on the length of the components of the cash conversion cycle. Assume that Muttakeen plc expects credit sales of US$18m in the next year and has budgeted production costs as follows: US$ m Raw materials 4.00 Direct labour 5.00 Production overheads 3.00 Total production costs 12.00 Raw materials are in inventory for an average of three weeks and finished goods are in inventory for an average of four weeks. All raw materials are added at the start of the production cycle, which takes five weeks and incurs labour costs and production overheads at a constant rate. Suppliers of raw materials allow four weeks’ credit, whereas customers are given 12 weeks to pay. The production takes place evenly throughout the year. Required: Calculate the total working capital requirement? (b) (Evaluating a change in trade receivables policy) Muttakeen plc has annual credit sales of $15m and allows 90 days’ credit. It is considering introducing a 2% discount for payment within 15 days, and reducing the credit period to 60 days. It estimates that 60% of its customers will take advantage of the discount, while the volume of sales will not be affected. The company finances working capital from an overdraft at a cost of 10%. Is the proposed change in policy worth implementing? Page # 15 October 17, 2016 Class Note: 402:SMA By Md.Monowar Hossain, FCMA,CPA,FCS,ACA md.monowar@gmail.com Problem No. 02 [Expansion type project}: FYR is considering the purchase of an industrial incubator for the production of day old chicks. The firm does not currently own such a machine. A consultant was paid Tk.250,000 six months ago to estimate the relevant cash flows which are summarized as follows: The incubator would save Tk.500,000 per year in costs and provide additional revenues of Tk.400,000 annually. It would cost Tk.1,400,000 and installation and shipping costs would amount to Tk.300,000 and Tk.100,00 respectively. FYR would need to train its staff to operate the incubator at an after-tax cost of Tk.200,000. The firm would also need to increase its stock of eggs at the hatchery by Tk.500,000. The company plans to issue debt to fund the project and this will increase interest expenses by Tk.465,000 per year. The machine will be depreciated towards a salvage value of Tk.400,000 over its useful life of 5 years. At the end of the machine’s useful life it is expected that it can be sold for Tk.500,000. The NBR will also give the firm a tax credit of Tk.74,993 at the end of the project as agreed with the firm for partial recovery of import duties. FYR has a cost of capital of 20% and a tax rate of 33 1/3 % Required: a) b) c) Calculate the NPV. Calculate the PI of the project? Should the project be accepted? Why or why not? Problem No. 03 [Replacement type project]: A local juice making company with a cost of capital of 15% and a marginal tax rate of 34%, is considering replacing the current hand-operated machine with an automated machine. The following information is available: Existing Situation: Proposed Situation Two full-time operators: salaries $12,000 each per year Cost of machine: $55,000 Cost of maintenance: $6,000 per year Installation costs: $6,000 Cost of defects: $5,000 per year Cost of defects: $2,500 per year Original cost of old machine: $40,000 Expected life: 5 years Expected life: 10 years and Age: 5 years Expected salvage value: $0 Expected salvage at the end of useful life: $5,000 Depreciation method: straight-line over 5 years Dep: Straight-line over 10 years down to a value of zero. Current salvage value: $10,000 Required: Determine the Payback Period and the IRR. Should the automated machine be acquired? Why? Page # 16 October 17, 2016