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Econ Midterm 2 Study Guide

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Practice Test: Chapter 6
Score: 6/10
A real interest rate tells you…
How fast the purchasing power of your bank account rises over time
The real interest rate tells you how fast the purchasing power of your bank account rises over
time. The real interest rate adjusts for inflation, so it tells you how fast your account is rising in
purchasing power.
The nominal interest rate would tell you how fast the number of dollars in your bank account
rises over time.
Ms. Lane borrowed $1000 from her bank for one year at an interest rate of 10 percent.
During that year, the price level went up by 15 percent. Which of the following statements
is correct?
Ms. Lane’s repayment will give the bank less purchasing power than it originally loaned her
In 1931, President Herbert Hoover was paid a salary of $75,000. Government statistics
show a consumer price index of 15.2 for 1931 and 237 for 2015. President Hoover’s 1931
salary was equivalent to a 2015 salary of about…
$1,169,408
$75,000*(237/15.2) = $1,169,407.89
The nominal interest rate tells you…
How fast the number of dollars in the bank account rises over time
The nominal interest rate tells you how the number of dollars in your account rises over time,
whereas the real interest rate adjusts for inflation to tell you how the purchasing power of your
bank account rises over time.
Interest only accrues over time, so neither the nominal nor real interest rate tells you anything
about your bank account today.
The price index was 105 in Year 1 and 111 in Year 2. What was the inflation rate?
5.7%
To calculate the inflation rate, take the percentage change in the price index
(100%)*(111-105)/105 = 5.714%
In the CPI, goods and services are weighted according to…
How much consumers buy of each good or service
Which of the following statements is correct about the relationship between inflation and
interest rates?
In order to fully understand interest rates, we need to know how to correct for the effects of
inflation
Assume the market basket for the consumer price index has two products — meat and
potatoes — with the values in the table in 2006 and 2011 for price and quantity. 2006 is
the base year for choosing the market basket. The percentage increase in prices between
2006 and 2011 is…
Base Year
(2006)
Product
2011
Quantity
Price
Quantity
Price
Meat
100
$10
80
$14
Potatoes
200
$3
220
$3
25%
The market basket costs 100 x 10 + 200 x 3 + 1600 in 2006 and 100 x 14 + 200 x 3 = 2000 in
2011. This is a 25% increase.
If the CPI was 95 in 1955 and is 475 today, then $100 today purchases the same amount
of goods and services as…
$20 purchased in 1955
Ratio of prices today to prices in 1995
= (CPI today) / (CPI in 1955)
= 475 / 95
=5
Therefore, prices are 5 times higher today than they were in 1955
Therefore, something that costs $100 today would cost 100 / 5 = $20 in 1955
Multiply 100 by CPI1955 / CPItoday
If CPI changes from 125 to 120 between 2010 and 2011, how did prices change between
2010 and 2011?
Prices decreased by 4%
The percentage change is (-5/125) x 100 = -.04 x 100 = -4%
Practice Test: Chapter 7
Score: 3/10
Country Y has a population of 1,500, of whom 375 work 7 hours a day to make 128,000
final goods. Country Z has a population of 2,200, of whom 880 work 5 hours a day to make
384,000 final goods.
Country Y has lower productivity per labor hour and lower real GDP per person than country Z
This question involves too much calculation for an exam question. We'll assume that a final
good has the same value in both countries. We can then compare the ratio of final goods to
population for the two countries to get the GDP per person comparison. We can divide final
goods by the total number of hours worked per day in each country to get the comparison of
productivity per labor hour. Country Z is higher on both measures.
Last year real GDP per person in the imaginary nation of Olympus was $4,260. The year
before it was $4,100. By about what percentage did real GDP per person grow during the
period?
3.9%
(160/4,100) x 100 is 3.9
In some countries it is time consuming and costly to establish ownership of property.
Reforms to reduce these costs would likely…
Raise real GDP and productivity
Please refer to slide 51 of chapter 7. Institutions are the rules of the game in a society or, more
formally, are the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction. Establishing
ownership of property helps facilitate transactions in an economy and increases incentives for
work effort and innovation.
Which of the following is true about economic growth? Economic theory predicts that…
Poor countries can grow faster than rich countries, and South Korea and China are examples, but
for many poor countries it has not been true.
Phoenix furniture uses 12 workers, each working eight hours, to produce 192 rocking
chairs. Which of these is the best way of expressing Phoenix’s productivity?
2 rocking chairs per hour
Productivity is a measure of units of output per units of input. In this case the output is rocking
chairs and the input is hours of labor
12 workers*8 hours per worker = 96 hours
192 rocking chairs / 96 hours = 2 rocking chairs per hour
In a market economy, scarcity of resources is most clearly reflected in…
Market prices
Market prices reflect scarcity by imposing a cost people who consume goods and services . In
a competitive market, prices are high when the demand for goods is high relative to supply
implying that the goods are in relatively short supply.
Supply and demand are relationships between price and quantity and by themselves do not say
anything about scarcity.
The stock of resources does not say if those resources are scarce. For example, scientists may
be able to calculate how much oxygen is on earth but that does not mean humans are in short
supply of oxygen.
Which of the following pairs of terms refer to the same thing?
“Capital” and “Physical Capital”
Human capital can include an individual’s knowledge of technology, but it can also include other
things such as a person’s ability to understand complex mathematics, a person’s ability to do
complex tasks, a person’s ability to be organized, etc.
Consider a per-worker production function that has the usual shape and assume there is no
technological change or growth in human capital. Then if the United States increases
capital per hour worked by $40,000 every year between 2010 and 2014, we would expect to
see that
Real GDP per hour worked will increase by smaller increments each year between 2010 and
2014
All else equal, if there are diminishing returns, then…
Increases in the capital stock increase output by even smaller amounts
The Economic Development Minister of a country has a list of things she thinks may
explain her country’s low growth of real GDP per person relative to other countries. She
asks you to pick the one you think most likely explains her country’s growth. Which of the
following contributes to low growth?
Poorly enforced property rights
Practice Test: Chapter 8
Score: 4/10
Country A is a closed economy. The GDP in Country A is $100 billion ($1000 million).
Which of the following answers displays the country’s National Saving, Private Saving, and
Public Saving?
275, 300, -25
National Income Account
Value (Millions of Dollars)
Government Purchases (G)
200
Taxes minus Transfer Payments (T)
175
Consumption (C)
525
Investment (I)
275
A bond buyer is a…
Saver. Bond buyers may sell their bonds prior to maturity.
When someone buys a bond, they are giving money to the entity that issued the bond in
exchange for a promised series of payments. A person buying a bond uses their savings to
provide funds for another entity to borrow.
Bonds do not have to kept until maturity. Keeping a bond to maturity means holding the bond
until all of the promised payments have been made. Bonds can be sold to other people before
they mature. In that case the new owner of the bond will get the remaining promised
payments.
As an alternative to selling shares of a stock as a means of raising funds, a large company
could, instead…
Sell bonds
The slope of the supply of loanable funds curve represents the…
Positive relation between the interest rate and saving
Supply of loanable funds comes from savers, who have an incentive to save more when the
interest rate they will receive is higher.
Consider a closed economy. If national saving is greater than zero, which of the following
must be true?
Y–C–G>0
Happy Trails, a bicycle rental company, is considering purchasing three additional
bicycles. Each bicycle would cost them $249.66. At the end of the first year the increase
to their revenues would be $140 per bicycle. At the end of the second year the increase to
their revenues again would be $140 per bicycle. Thereafter, there are no increases to
their revenues. At which of the following interest rates is the sum of the present values of
the additional revenues closest to the price of a bicycle?
8%
Using the present value formula
How could we find national saving in a closed economy?
We add together public and private saving
Private saving is Y – T – C. If we add T we get Y – C, which is also I + G.
If we add together investment and government purchases, that would also be I + G
If we subtract government purchases from GDP, that would be C + I
In a closed economy, if Y, C, and T remained the same, a decrease in G would…
Increase public saving but not private saving.
In a closed economy:
S_public = T – G, so S_public increases when T is the same and G decreases
Also, S_private = S-S_public = (Y – C – G) – (T – G) = Y – C – T, that is, S_private will remain
the same as Y, C, T are the same
Kathleen is considering expanding her dress shop. If interest rates rise she is…
Less likely to expand. This illustrates why the demand for loanable funds slopes downward.
In 2002 mortgage rates fell and mortgage lending increased. Which of the following could
explain both of these changes?
The supply of loanable funds shifted rightward
The interest rate is the price in this market. If price falls and quantity increases, this could be
explained by a movement along the demand curve as supply shifts to the right.
Practice Test: Chapter 10
Score: 8/10
Efficiency-wage theory suggests that paying…
High wages might be profitable because they raise the efficiency of a firm’s workers
If the natural rate of unemployment is 4.7 percent and the actual rate of unemployment is
5.5 percent, then by definition there is…
Cyclical unemployment amounting to 0.8 percent of the labor force
Over the last half of the twentieth century, the difference between the labor-force
participation rates of men and women in the U.S…
Gradually decreased
The male labor force participation rate generally decreased, while the female labor force
participation rate generally increased. The gap was not entirely closed, as male labor force
participation is still higher than female labor force participation.
Which of the following is an example of an efficiency wage?
An above-equilibrium wage offered by a firm to attract a more talented pool of job applicants
Suppose that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that there were 62 million people
over age 25 whose highest level of education was some college or an associate degree. Of
these, 45.3 million were employed and 3.6 million were unemployed. What were the
labor-force participation rate and the unemployment rate for this group?
78.9% and 7.4%
The labor force is 45.3 + 3.6 = 48.9 million. The labor-force participation rate is (45.3/62) X
100, and the unemployment rate is (3.6/48.9) x 100.
The labor force is 45.3 + 3.6 = 48.9 million. The labor-force participation rate is (45.3/62) X
100, and the unemployment rate is (3.6/48.9) x 100.
Suppose that a large number of people who used to be looking for work stop looking.
Other things the same, this makes…
Both the number of people unemployed an in the labor force fall
According to the traditional analysis, if the local government imposed a minimum wage
of $4 in Productionville, how many people would be unemployed?
0
The equilibrium wage in Productionville, where the quantity of workers supplied equals the
quantity of workers demanded, is $6. At the equilibrium wage, everyone who wants to work is
able to and there is no unemployment (at least in this simple model). Minimum wages below
the equilibrium wage have no effect on the labor market. Therefore, because the minimum
wage of $4 is less then the equilibrium wage of $6, the enactment of the minimum wage does
not cause any unemployment.
Wage
Quantity
Demanded
Quantity
Supplied
$8
6,000
16,000
$7
9,000
14,000
$6
12,000
12,000
$5
15,000
10,000
$4
18,000
8,000
Which of the following includes everyone in the adult population that the Bureau of Labor
Statistics count as “unemployed”?
Anyone who is not employed, is available for work, has looked for work in the past four weeks,
and anyone who is on temporary layoff from a job and is waiting to be recalled
In the early 1900’s, Henry Ford introduced a…
High-wage policy, and this policy produced many of the effects predicted by efficiency-wage
theory.
If the government imposes a minimum wage of $8, then according to the traditional
analysis, how many workers will be unemployed?
4,000
Practice Midterm 2
Score: 16/30
Which of the following is a correct statement?
A corporation’s expected future profitability influences the demand for the stock
Buying a bond issued by Microsoft corporation makes you a part owner of the corporation
Bonds provide a higher average return than stocks, but they are also a more risky investment
If a corporation issues new stock, it is engaging in debt finance
Buying stock makes you a part owner of the firm and gives you a claim to part of its profits (this
is not true of owning bonds). Your willingness to pay for a firm’s stock should depend at least in
part on how profitable you expect it to be in the future.
Stocks are riskier than bonds, but offer the potential for higher returns
According to our model of the market for loanable funds, what would happen if changes
to tax policy encourage more saving at the same time that businesses become more
pessimistic about the profitability of investments in physical capital? We would expect…
The interest rate to fall with an unclear effect on the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds
More saving means the supply of loanable funds shifts to the right. Businesses becoming more
pessimistic means the demand for loanable funds shifts to the left. When supply shifts right and
demand shifts left, price (the interest rate) falls, and the effect on quantity is ambiguous.
Numerous students who were not working graduate from college and start looking for
jobs but are unable to find work. Compared to the situation before they graduated, what
happens to the unemployment rate (U) and the employment-population ratio (EPOP).
U increases and EPOP is unchanged
In comparisons of GDP per capita across countries:
Over long periods of time, small differences in growth rates can make a big difference in levels
of GDP per capita
A nation with very low GDP per capita has the potential to grow relatively quickly due to the
“catch up effect”
Differences in the quantity of economic institutions (for example, enforcement of property rights
and the rule of law) can contribute to differences in GDP levels and economic growth
All of the above
In a closed economy, if investment is larger than private saving
The government must have a budget surplus
In a closed economy, investment always equals national saving. National saving is private
saving plus public saving. So if investment is larger than private saving, public saving must be
positive. This means a budget surplus.
Suppose that over a period of several years the CPI shows that prices increased by 20%,
but a number new products were introduced and widely purchased, while the Bureau of
Labor Statistics kept its market basket the same. Which statement is true?
The true increase in cost of living was greater than 20%
If consumers bought the new products when they could have kept buying the old ones, the
availability of the new products is making them better off. By keeping the market basket the
same, the CPI is missing this effect.
Which of the following is an example of an efficiency wage?
An above equilibrium wage paid by a firm to reduce turnover costs
If between 2005 and 2019 an economy’s real GDP grew from $10 trillion to $40 trillion,
what was the average annual growth rate in the economy? (Hint: use the rule of 70.)
10%
This is doubling twice in 14 years or once in 7 years. By the rule of 70, the growth rate r must
solve 70/r = 7, so r = 10%
Ahmed bought the same goods and services this year as last year. But he has experienced
10% inflation. This means that…
His bundle of goods and services cost 10% more in dollars this year than last year
The inflation rate measures the percentage change in the cost of a bundle of goods and services.
It could be that different goods and services experiences different price changes; 10% inflation
does not imply that every price increased by 10%
Classify the following three scenarios by which of the determinants of productivity they
affect:
(1) Companies increase the percent of profits they invest in research and development
leading to an increase in the number of patents.
(2) A large fire leads to a factory closing down. Assume that no workers are harmed in
the fire but the factory is heavily damaged.
(3) The government enacts a program to create 20 new community colleges. Assume this
increases the number of students who attend community college to upgrade their skills.
Technological knowledge, physical capital per worker, human capital per worker
For the three scenarios below, identify, in order, the type of unemployment described.
(1) Amanda graduated with a computer science degree and wants to live in San
Francisco. There is a good market for people with her skills, but she wants to take some
time to find the position that is best for her. She moves to San Francisco and crashes on
a friend's couch while she interviews for jobs.
(2) A food processing factory decides to increase wages by 50% above what its
competitors are paying. They find that fewer workers quit or call in sick, and that the
quality of work is better than before. Their competitors respond by also increasing
wages. More workers want to work at these higher wages, but unemployment results
because businesses are not willing to hire everyone who wants to work.
(3) Li Wei owns a homebuilding company. During the downturn in 2009, few new homes
were being built, and he had no work for several subcontractors, who had to lay off
many workers.
Frictional, structural, cyclical
According to the figure above and the standard economic analysis, if a minimum wage was
set at 7, how many workers would be unemployed, in hundreds?
20
Suppose that a firm has an opportunity to borrow funds to undertake an investment
project. It would need to borrow $10,000 now and pay it back in a year, and the project
would increase its net revenue by $10,600 (in nominal dollars) one year from now and
have no other effects. Is this a profitable investment?
Yes, as long as the nominal interest rate on the loan is less than 6%
As long as the nominal interest rate is less than 6%, the number of dollars the firm will owe next
year will be less than $10,600. Another way to look at it is that the present value of $10,600
received in one year is greater than $1,000 if the interest rate is less than 6%
Year
1965
2010
Nominal Average
Hourly Earnings
$2.65
22.59
CPI (1982-1984 = 100)
32
219
The table above reports the nominal average hourly earnings in private industry and the
consumer price index for 1965 and 2010. How would you calculate 1965 average
earnings in 2010 dollars?
2.65 x (219/32)
If GDP grows at a rate of 3% per year, approximately how long will it take for GDP to
double in size?
23 years
By the rule of 70, it takes 70/3 years to double at a growth rate of 3%, so about 23 years
Suppose the working-age population of a fictional economy falls into the following
categories: 50 are retired; 60 have full-time employment; 30 have part-time
employment; 10 are not working but are actively looking for employment; and 10 would
like employment but are not working and are not actively looking for employment. The
official unemployment rate as calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor would equal…
(10/100) x 100
Kim and Khloe both spend all of their income on entertainment and food. The table
shows how they divide their spending between the two categories. Last year food prices
increased 5 percent and entertainment prices increased 7 percent. Which of the two
women experienced the larger percentage increase in the cost of living?
Khloe
Share of Budget
Food
Entertainment
60%
40%
50%
50%
Year
Kim
Khloe
The following table pertains to Farmtopia, an economy in which the typical consumer's
basket consists of 10 bags of rice and 5 bags of corn. What is the inflation rate between
year 1 and year 2?
35 percent
Year
Year
1
Year
2
Price of Rice
(Dollars per bag)
Price of Corn
(Dollars per bag)
$5
$10
$8
$11
If the correct expression for the present value of $1,000 received 4 years from now if the
interest rate is 3% is…
$1,000 / (1.03)^4
$1,000/(1.03)4 is the correct formula. If we start with this amount of money today and it
grows at 3% per year for 4 years it will equal $1,000.
According to the analysis in Chapter 8, which of the following is a result of an increase in
the budget deficit caused by an increase in government spending?
The supply of loanable funds shifts to the left
In a closed economy, GDP = $20,000, net taxes = $8,000, consumption = $7,500 and
government purchases = $6,000. What are, in order, private saving and public saving?
$4,500; $2,000
Some persons are counted as out of the labor force because they have made no serious or
recent effort to look for work. However, some of these individuals may want to work even
though they are too discouraged to make a serious effort to look for work. If these
individuals were counted as unemployed instead of out of the labor force, then…
Both the unemployment rate and labor-force participation rate would be higher
They would add to both the numerator and the denominator of the unemployment rate by
equal amounts, increasing the unemployment rate. They would increase the numerator of the
labor-force participation rate without changing the denominator (the working-age population).
A rapid increase in the number of workers, other things the same, is likely in the short
term to…
Raise real GDP, but decrease real GDP per person.
A rapid increase in the number of workers will likely increase GDP in the short term because
having more labor input makes it possible to produce more output. However, in the short
terms businesses will not have time to accumulate much additional physical capital.
Therefore, it is likely that the rapid increase in the number of workers will cause physical
capital per worker to fall. As seen in the graphs in assignment 2, lower levels of physical
capital per worker are associated with a lower level of real GDP per person.
Which of the following can explain why some countries have not experienced relatively
high growth rates in real GDP per capita despite relatively low initial levels of real GDP
per capita?
Countries that are relatively poor have a difficult time generating savings, and many have not
welcomed foreign investment
Countries that are relatively poor are more likely to experience wars and revolutions
Many of these developing countries do not have a functioning court system that can effectively
enforce laws
All of the above
Which of the following was not true about the U.S labor force participation rate between
1950 and 2000?
The overall participation rate, combining men and women, remained constant over the period
Most clothing purchased in the U.S. is imported from other countries. It follows from this
that increases in the price of clothing produced elsewhere
Have more effect on the CPI than on the GDP deflator
Imported goods are in the CPI market basket, but value added in other countries is not part of US
GDP and therefore not part of the market basket for the GDP deflator
Suppose the CPI was 140 in Year 1 and 147 in Year 2. The nominal interest rate during the
period was 9 percent. What was the real interest rate during this period?
4 percent
Inflation (the percentage change in CPI) was 5 percent. The real interest rate is the nominal rate
minus inflation
Country A and country B both increase their capital stock by one unit. Output in
country A increases by 12 while output in country B increases by 15. Other things the
same (number of workers, human capital per worker and technological knowledge),
diminishing returns implies that country A is
Richer than country B. If country A adds another unit of capital, output will increase by less than
12 units
Consider the figure above, showing real data for the prime age (25-54) population (units
on the y-axis are percent) from 2006-2016. While the curves are not labeled, you should
be able to choose from the answers below. The upper curve is ____ and the lower curve
is _____.
The labor force participation rate; the employment-population ratio
Alex buys 1,000 shares of stock issued by Greg Brewing. In turn, Greg uses the funds to
buy new machinery for one of its breweries.
Alex is saving; Greg is investing
Saving means not spending all of your income on consumption. Using some of your paycheck to
buy stock is an act of saving. So Alex is saving when he buys the stocks.
Investing is buying physical capital. So Greg is investing when he buys the machinery
Review Session
CPI: measures changes in the cost of a “market basket” bought by a typical consumer
- 100 x (cost of market basket in current year) / (cost of basket in base year)
- Index needed because different prices change at different rates
- Inflation rate is percentage change in CPI from one year to the next
- CPI uses a market basket based on recent past surveys of consumers
- If quality of goods and services improve or new products make people better off and CPI
does not adjust, inflation is overstated
- CPI and GDP deflator are similar but have different market baskets
o CPI market basket: reflect what consumers are actually buying
o GDP deflator: all that goes into GDP (imports not included)
- To adjust a year X value to the year Y price level, multiply by CPIy/CPIx
o Ex. $1,000 in 2000 is equivalent to $1000 x (CPI2020/CPI2000) in 2020 dollars
- Real interest rate = nominal rate – inflation rate
Economic Growth
- Countries have very different levels of GDP per capita and have grown at different rates
- Small differences in growth rates have big effects on the standard of living over long
periods
-
Rule of 70: 70/growth rate = number of years to double
o Y_t = Y_0 (1+r)^t (grows at a constant rate for a number of years)
Real GDP = Real GDP per capita x population
Growth rate of real GDP per capita = growth rate of real GDP – growth rate of population
GDP per capita differences are mainly due to differences in output/worker, what we call
productivity
Many poor countries have not been able to take advantage of catch-up growth, for
various reasons
Modern theories about economic growth emphasize the importance of the rules of the
game, the institutions
Institutions affect incentives. Inclusive institutions are good for growth
o Enforce property rights, rule of law, equal justice
Saving and Investment
- What are financial intermediaries?
o Institution that facilitates the movement of funds between lenders and borrowers
indirectly
- Differences between stocks and bonds
o Stocks give you partial ownership in a corporation
 Must appreciate in value and be sold later
o Bonds are a loan from you to a company or government
 Pay fixed interest over time
- Saving means not spending all of your income on consumption. Using some of your
paycheck to buy stock as an act of saving
- Investing is buying physical capital, as in the I component of GDP
- Saving = Investment in a closed economy
o I=Y–C–G
o T = net taxes, taxes paid minus transfer payments received
o S(public) = T – G
o S = S(private) + S(public) = Y – C – G = I
- Present Value of Xt at interest rate r, is Xt / (1 + r)^t
- Xt / (1 + r)^t would become X t after t years, if it grows at rate r
- Net present value adds up the costs and benefits of a project in present value terms
- A profitable project has a positive net present value, depends on the interest rate
- Market for Loanable Funds: supply is from national saving, demand is from firms who
want to invest
o a budget deficit reduces national saving and the supply of loanable funds
o which increases the interest rate and decreases quantity, decreasing investment
- Debt_t + Deficit_t = Debt_t+1
- Government debt grows when there are deficits
- Debt/GDP grows if debt grows faster than GDP, but falls if GDP is growing faster than
debt
- Low interest rates makes some macroeconomics less concerned about government debt
than they used to be, but current levels of deficits are not sustainable
Unemployment
- Employed: working or temporarily away (in last week); part time counts
- Unemployed: not working but available and actively looking (in last four weeks), or on
temporary layoff
- Labor Force: Employed + Unemployed
- Unemployment Rate: (Unemployed/Labor Force) x100
- There are some alternative measures (U4-U6)
- “Working age population”: civilian, non-institutionalized population 16 years and over;
also called adult population
- Employment-population ratio: (employed/working age population) x100
- Labor force participation rate: (labor force/ working age population) x100
- Increasing female labor force participation was a major trend in the last half of the 20th
century
- Types of Unemployment
o Cyclical: economic downturns, deviations from the natural rate
o Natural rate includes frictional + structural
o Frictional: associated with job search, usually short term in good economic times
o Structural: wages persistently above the level where quantity demanded =
quantity supplied
 Reasons include minimum wage, efficiency wages, and labor unions
o Pre-pandemic unemployment rate 3.5%--not much frictional or structural
unemployment
- Unemployment Insurance
o Normally replaces some wages for covered workers when they become
unemployed
 Changes incentives for job search, selectivity; probably increases
frictional unemployment a little, but important part of safety net
 Greatly expanded during pandemic. Interesting changes in ratio of those
receiving benefits to total unemployed
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