Quant
Yearly Outlook 2022
Research Analysts:
Raj Deepak Singh
rajdeepak.singh@icicisecurities.com
Nandish Patel
nandish.patel@icicisecurities.com
Dipesh Dedhia
dipesh.dedhia@icicisecurities.com
Siddhesh Jain
siddhesh.jain@icicisecurities.com
2022: Nifty all set for 20800
Rate hike amid economic rebound = buoyant market
2022: Nifty target at 20800
TINA factor : Equities remain favourite
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Deepening of Indian markets: Domestic flows
Sectoral Analysis: Change in sectoral leadership too evident?
Nifty rebalancing expected in 2022
Quant Picks for 2022
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
2
Rate hike amid economic rebound = buoyant market
US Fed interest rate vs. Nifty (2003-2008)
6500
0.5
Oct-19
Dec-19
Aug-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Feb-19
Oct-18
Dec-18
Aug-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Feb-18
Oct-17
Dec-17
Aug-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
4500
Feb-17
5500
0
• In the last two rate hike cycles, equities have been major performers among all asset classes. Notably, both rate hikes also coincided with
an economic recovery. From an Indian perspective, the movement seen during 2003-07 was one of the strongest seen till date. With global
central banks preparing for rate hikes due to the ongoing inflationary pressure, a repeat of 2003-07 cannot be ruled out
• After the dot com bubble, interest rates were in a declining trajectory. They started moving upwards from 2004 onwards. The move started
during that phase continued till 2007 amid intermediate noise that was quite limited
• In 2013 also, when tapering discussion started, equity markets witnessed an initial setback before seeing strong positive momentum in the
next couple of years. From an Indian perspective, apart from a minor correction of almost 15% during June-August 2013 due to nearly
$3.8 billion FII outflows, markets remained buoyant for the next few years
December 23, 2021
US Interest rate
1
Oct-16
Jul-08
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-07
Oct-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-04
Apr-04
0
Jul-03
0
Oct-03
1
Jan-03
1000
7500
Dec-16
2
2000
1.5
8500
Aug-16
3000
9500
Apr-16
3
2
Jun-16
4000
10500
Feb-16
4
2.5
11500
US Interest rate
5000
3
US Fed rates %
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
3
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
5
Apr-03
Nifty
12500
6000
NIFTY
13500
6
US Fed rates %
Dec-15
Nifty
NIFTY
7000
US Fed interest rate vs. Nifty (2015-2019)
2022: Nifty target at 20800...
• The Nifty has moved above its long term mean+2*sigma levels on multiple occasions in
the past but has rarely sustained above it in the last 12 years. Moreover, it has managed to
test its Mean+3*sigma levels for the first time since 2008
20700
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
• We believe it is a new trend in the making where Mean+2*sigma levels (currently near
15700) should act as a support while the Nifty should achieve the target of its
mean+3*sigma levels in coming months. Extrapolating the current move further, we
expect the Nifty to move towards 20800 in coming months
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
4
Nifty to replicate momentum seen in 2003-07
Nifty movement during 2003-07
• The Nifty witnessed a major bull run in 2003-07 where it
rallied from 1450 to 6420 levels in the span of next four years
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
• The Nifty has moved largely in the band of its 2*sigma and
3*sigma levels for a major part of four years amid
intermediate smaller corrections where the Nifty has found
support near its 2*sigma levels on multiple occasions
providing various entry opportunities
Nifty above 2* sigma levels in 2021
• After the sharp fall of 2020, the Nifty managed to move
above its 2*sigma levels in late December 2020. Since then,
it has remained above its 2*sigma levels
• We believe we are going to witness a multiyear positive
move, where the Nifty will remain largely between 2*sigma
and 3*sigma levels
• The current mean+2*sigma levels is placed near 15700,
which should act as immediate support for the index. With
time, we believe it will move higher
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
5
Despite outperformance, TINA factor to further help equities
10 Year
3 Year
Bonds
Commodity & real estate
1 Year
10 Year
Brazil
International Real Estate
Hongkong
SPDR Real Estate
Japan
Vanguard Real Estate
China
LME Copper
UK
Spot Silver
Taiwan
Spot Gold
3 Year
1 Year
10 Year
3 Year
1 Year
Global Inflation linked
Global High yield
US Aggregate
WTI Crude Oil
USA
Global Aggregate
Bloomberg Com. Index
India
-25%
25%
75%
125%
175%
225%
-30.0%
-5.0%
20.0%
45.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%
 Bond markets have enjoyed an almost uninterrupted bull run for more than a decade since 2008 as low interest rates amid monetary
stimulus were major tools for central banks. With looming high inflation and yields turning negative, not much scope is left for further
returns in bonds
 Despite the sharp rebound seen in commodities, they have failed to generate higher returns. Despite the recent surge in demand for
industrial metals, normalisation in supply dynamics along with slowing demand from China is likely to keep commodity prices in check.
 Equities continued to be the best performer among asset classes. Both India and the US provided above 250% returns in the last 10 years.
We believe lack of alternatives for returns would continue to favour equities and they will remain in focus in coming years.
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
6
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Global equities
Deepening of Indian markets: Domestic flows
Number of active Retail Demat accounts
Demat Account
• The Covid pandemic has triggered/brought many changes
globally. One of them was the sharp surge in small category
participants (retail category)
% Change
70
60
36%
27%
40
30
20
14%
FIIs vs. domestic market share (total Demat holdings)
12%
13%
9%
10
Foreign %
Domestic %
2021*
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
0
55%
56%
58%
58%
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
In Lakhs
50
• In India, retail participants were growing at a CAGR of almost
15.5% till 2020. Post Covid, a sharp rise was observed
59%
57%
57%
* Till August 2021
43%
43%
2021
2020
41%
2019
42%
2018
42%
2017
44%
2016
• This growth has further led to an increase in their market
share, which is currently at its highest point in history
45%
2015
• Fund flows from domestic investors have witnessed a
sharp rise compared to FIIs. Direct retail as well as mutual
funds have shown significant growth. Total market share
of domestic investors (DII+HNI+Retail) has moved to
59% from 55% since 2015
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
7
Thus, Indian equities display resilience despite FII outflows…
6
12
12
-9200
9
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
DEC-21
APR-21
SEP-19
MAY-19
-75000
-75000
-38000
NOV-18
MAY-18
40
MAR-20
-7000
12
-35000
5
-4000
11
FIIs Outflow in crore
SEP-17
DEC-16
FEB-16
SEP-15
JUN-15
AUG-13
JUN-13
JUN-13
Correction%
.
5
-14000
5
MAR-18
-109
11
-4000
-4800
17
DEC-17
-9100
12
-15000
12
-35000
16
-29000
10
-28000
10
-13000
Relation of FIIs outflows during intermediate correction
•
Being a major driver of equities, FIIs have been a major force behind the sharp moves in the market. The intensity of the moves was always
correlated with the FII flows. We have analysed the data since 2013 and found several occasions where the Nifty has corrected from 10% to
15% amid significant FII outflows
•
However, in the last one and a half months, the Nifty has witnessed a correction of almost 11% where FIIs outflows have almost touched
~| 80,000 crore, which is the one of the highest ever in history in such a short span of time. Similar outflows were seen in February-March
2020 during the Covid outbreak, causing an almost 40% correction in the Nifty. Currently, with similar outflows, markets have absorbed the
selling pressure and saw declines of just over 11%. This resilience can be attributed to significantly increased participation of DIIs and retail
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
8
Sectoral Analysis: Change in sectoral leadership too evident?
Bank Nifty/ NSE IT Price ratio
Nifty/NSE IT price ratio
2.4
BankNifty/IT ratio
2.5
NSE IT/Nifty
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.2
0.9
1.3
0.6
0.3
•
•
•
•
Jan-21
Jan-20
Jan-19
Jan-18
Jan-17
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
0
Jan-02
Jan-21
Jan-20
Jan-19
Jan-18
Jan-17
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
0.7
Banking and technology are the major drivers of the index. However, in the last couple of years, banking has taken a backseat while the
technology space has significantly outperformed
The price ratio of Bank Nifty vs. Nifty IT indices has been continuously declining in the last four years and has gradually moved towards
levels of 1 from highs of 2.2 seen in mid-2017. However, the current price ratio of 1 has acted as a strong support for the ratio in the past.
There are chances that it may start witnessing a fresh up move from here onwards
Historically, the price ratio has reverted from 1 on multiple occasions like in 2004, 2007 and 2014, followed by an outperformance of the
Bank Nifty by 90-100%. Also, since the ratio has shown a tendency of seven year cycle, it should not be ignored
In contrast, due to structural changes in the technology space, continued outperformance cannot be ruled out. However, at the current
juncture, we would like to wait for a couple of quarters before shifting the bias
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
9
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
1
Sectoral Analysis: Outperformance of tech compensating banking
32000
•
In the last eight years, the Bank Nifty violated its mean levels in
2013, 2016 and 2020. However, the recovery was sharp and the
banking index managed to test its 2*sigma levels
•
The Bank Nifty took three years to violate its mean levels in 2013
whereas in 2016 it took four years. We believe the current up
trend in the Bank Nifty should continue as there could be
possibility of consolidation in a broader range
•
After the 2020 fall, mean levels deteriorated. However, as the
index has moved towards its 2*sigma levels, we feel the mean
levels would also move higher. In that case, support for the
index should be placed near 32000 levels whereas on upsides
we feel it should head towards 44500 levels
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Bank Nifty expected to move towards 44500
NSE IT should be buoyant above Mean+2*sigma
•
In the last 10 years, IT stocks have shown resilience against
broader volatility. The rally in the IT space started from mid-2012
and then moved above its 2*sigma levels
•
In the bull run of 2013-15, intermediate corrections found support
near their mean + 2 sigma levels
•
After consolidating in a broader range and hovering near its 2*
sigma levels in 2017-19, a fresh breakout was seen in the IT pack
•
We feel the current positive momentum in the IT space should
continue with the index well placed to move towards 37000 levels.
In case of intermediate corrections like in 2013-15, 2*sigma levels
should provide support, which is near 33000 levels
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
10
Besides technology; realty, retail & capital goods to find favour…
FII sectoral fund flow (April 2020-March 2021)
-5
-34
Banks
Technology
Oil & Gas
Pharma
Metals
Auto
Fin. Services
Cap. Goods
Realty
-19
-34
-2
• FIIs have net withdrawn around | 75,000 crore from the
secondary markets since the start of October 2021. Major share
of the outflows was borne by banks, which saw outflows of
almost | 34,000 crore since April 2021
• Retail, realty and capital goods space witnessed gradual inflows
despite the continued outflows on part of FIIs
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
11
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
-3
-19
Con. Durables
-40
-3
BANKS
47
BANKS
-1
TECHNOLOGY
3
TECHNOLOGY
3
0
-20
-2
21
OIL & GAS
3
OIL & GAS
12
PHARMA
3
21
12
6
-5
6
METALS
47
14
PHARMA
14
AUTO
3 5
13
10%
• Indian equity markets experienced record inflows of | 2,74,032
crore during FY20-21 (April 2020-March 2021). Secondary
markets have seen inflows of almost | 2,11,000 crore during the
period. Bulk of this inflow was parked in the banking and
financial services space that soaked up almost | 90,000 crore
April 21- Nov 21
31
6
23%
-3
46
FIN. SERVICES
3
REALTY
13
31
CON. DURABLES
CAPITAL GOODS
6
RETAIL
20
27
Retail
in Thousand Cr (|)
40
10%
35%
115%
FII sectoral fund flow
Apr 20- Mar21
46
20%
METALS
69%
112%
156%
23%
-3
CAP. GOODS
94%
6%
AUTO
REALTY
33%
76%
3
24%
7%
FIN. SERVICES
5
45%
79%
FIIs flows in Thousand crore
3
5%
-1
83%
Percentage change
CON. DURABLES
75%
107%
27
FIIs flows in Thousand crore
RETAIL
Percentage change
FII sectoral fund flow (December 2020-April 2021)
Broader markets should outperform Nifty
Price ratio ( Nifty Midcap/Nifty)
Nifty Midcap/Nifty ratio
2.2
~70%
2
1.8
~50%
1.6
1.4
~-30%
1.2
~-30%
Mar-21
Mar-20
Mar-19
Mar-18
Mar-17
Mar-16
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
0.8
•
The price ratio of the midcap index vs. the Nifty is in a recovery stage suggesting the outperformance of the midcap index vis-à-vis the
Nifty since March 2020. Even after the recent correction in markets, the ratio has been consolidating above its support line of 1.6 against
market volatility
•
According to the previous observation, there was ~30% correction in 2008, 2013 and 2018, followed by an outperformance of midcap
index by 50-70% in 2007 and 2017. Hence, we feel that a similar outperformance trend has commenced from March 2020 where we saw
the ratio go up by 10% till December 2021. Hence, there is a lot to recover still
•
Thus, the top stocks of the Nifty midcap 100 index should remain in focus along with its other components
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
12
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
~-30%
1
Nifty rebalancing expected in 2022
Nifty likely inclusions
Nifty likely exclusions
No
Stock
Sector
No
Stock
Sector
1
Apollo Hospital
Pharma
50098
1
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.
Oil & gas
29762
2
Info Edge (India) Ltd.
Technology
49911
2
Coal India Ltd.
Energy
31652
Avg MCAP( | Crores since Aug 01)
Avg MCAP( | Crores since Aug 01)
No
Stock
Sector
Future contenders
NSE100 likely exclusions
NSE100 likely inclusions
Avg MCAP( | Crores since Aug 01)
No
Stock
Sector
1
Mind Tree
Technology
68222
1
Yes Bank
2
SRF Ltd
Chemicals
61934
2
Indraprastha Gas Oil & Gas
No
Stock
Sector
Trigger
31565
1
Adani Total Gas
Oil & Gas
F&O inclusion
36113
2
Hindustan Zinc
Metals
F&O inclusion
3
Zomato
Others
F&O inclusion
4
Nykaa
Others
F&O inclusion + 6 months trading
5
Paytm
Financials
F&O inclusion + 6 months trading
Avg MCAP( | Crores since Aug 01)
Banking
• For the coming review, we feel Mind Tree and SRF would be a part of NSE100 whereas Yes Bank and Indraprastha Gas would be
excluded from the NSE100 basket
• Stocks like Adani Total Gas and Hindustan Zinc remain top contenders for NSE100 but they are not part of F&O yet. Hence, before the
coming review, if these stocks are included in F&O then they became obvious choices to be part of NSE100. Few others like Zomato,
Nykaa, Paytm require a six-month trading period and F&O inclusion. Once these criteria are fulfilled, then they would be major contenders
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
13
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
• For the coming Nifty rebalancing, based on free float market capitalisation method, probable candidates to enter the Nifty are
Apollo Hospitals and Info Edge
• Avenue Supermarts (D-Mart) continues to be the top contender for Nifty inclusion but only F&O stocks are added in the Nifty.
Hence, D-Mart would be part of the Nifty only once it starts trading in the F&O segment
• IOC and Coal India are likely to be excluded from the Nifty. Threshold for Hero MotoCorp to be out from the Nifty is requirement of
market cap of more than | 53,197 crore (as on date). Hence, if any other stock fulfils that requirement in the next review then Hero
MotoCorp would be excluded
Quant Picks for 2022
Stocks
Sectors
Initiation Range
Target
Stoploss
Upside Potential
Mindtree
Technology
4500-4620
5810
3925
26%
Reliance
Oil&Gas
2300-2360
2960
1990
25%
PVR Limited
Media
1290-1330
1680
1120
26%
State Bank of India
Banks
445-460
580
384
26%
Apollo Hospitals
Healthcare
4700-4820
6045
4098
25%
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Quant Picks for 2022
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
14
Quant Pick: Buy Mindtree in range of | 4500-4620;
Target: | 5810; Stop loss: | 3925; Time Frame: 12 months
Delivery Z-Score
Data Snapshot
4575
0.91
2906
1151087
93%
39.7
Significant high delivery volume was
seen in the last couple of months while
the stock continues to outperform
indicating aggressive buying.
1.0
Z-Score
Spot Price
Beta
12M Avg Price (|)
12M Avg Volume (|)
3M Avg Roll (%)
HV 30 Day (% Annualised)
1.5
0.5
0.0
-0.5
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
20-Dec-21
8-Dec-21
26-Nov-21
15-Nov-21
2-Nov-21
21-Oct-21
Technology stocks have been one of the biggest outperformers in the post Covid
scenario. Mindtree is one of the few stocks in the midcap technology space, which is
trading near life-time high levels. At the same time, the stock has largely remained
above its mean+2*sigma levels. Also, considering the sharp up move seen in the
last couple of years, a round of consolidation cannot be ruled out. However, we
expect Mindtree to remain above its mean+2*sigma levels. Moreover, since the
stock is likely to be part of NSE100 indices in the next rebalancing, additional fund
buying in the stock is expected in the coming weeks.
8-Oct-21
-1.0
i
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
15
Quant Pick: Buy Reliance Industries in range of | 2300-2360;
Target: | 2960; Stop loss: | 1990; Time Frame: 12 months
Delivery Z-Score
Data Snapshot
Spot Price
Beta
12M Avg Price (|)
12M Avg Volume (|)
3M Avg Roll (%)
HV 30 Day (% Annualised)
2363
0.88
2187
8388292
93%
35.8
Delivery Z-score remained low
suggesting no major delivery
based selling in the recent
weakness seen in the stock.
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Reliance Industries has been finding support near its Mean+1*sigma levels
since March 2017 on multiple occasions and has exhibited strong reversals.
Due to the recent market weakness, the stock has moved closer to these
levels once again, which provides a fresh entry opportunity from a medium
term perspective.
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
16
Quant Pick: Buy PVR Ltd in range of | 1290-1330;
Target: | 1680; Stop loss: | 1120; Time Frame: 12 months
Delivery Z-Score
Data Snapshot
Spot Price
Beta
12M Avg Price (|)
12M Avg Volume (|)
3M Avg Roll (%)
HV 30 Day (% Annualised)
1350
1.26
1409
1250617
92%
55.8
Pick-up in delivery volumes at lower
levels suggests healthy upsides
expected. The volatility in the stock has
also reduced significantly favouring
upsides
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
PVR Ltd has exhibited a significant underperformance in the last many quarters
due to the Covid-19 impact. Historically, mean levels have acted as trend reversal
levels for PVR. Apart from the Covid scenario in the last two years, it has not
spent much time below it. Currently, the stock is trading near its long term mean
levels of 1350. As volatility has also contracted in the stock compared to last year,
there is a high chance of fresh momentum coming back in the stock.
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
17
Quant Pick: Buy State Bank of India in range of | 445-460;
Target: | 580; Stop loss: | 384; Time Frame: 12 months
Delivery Z-Score
Data Snapshot
Lower volatility in the stock along
with sharp increase in delivery Z
score suggests better risk reward at
current levels
1.5
1.0
Z-Score
Spot Price
463
Beta
1.31
12M Avg Price (|)
409
12M Avg Volume (|)
35507607
3M Avg Roll (%)
93%
HV 30 Day (% Annualised)
31.2
0.5
0.0
-0.5
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
19-Dec-21
11-Dec-21
3-Dec-21
25-Nov-21
17-Nov-21
9-Nov-21
1-Nov-21
24-Oct-21
PSU banks found a new lease of life last year while sectoral leader SBI
made fresh lifetime highs after a consolidation of more than a decade.
We believe the stock is in a major uptrend and any declines remain a
buying opportunity. Moreover, historically, mean+1*sigma has been
a good entry opportunity in the stock. Due to the recent market
weakness, the stock has retraced towards these levels, providing a
fresh entry opportunity.
16-Oct-21
8-Oct-21
-1.0
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
18
Quant Pick: Buy Apollo Hospitals in range of | 4700-4820;
Target: | 6045; Stop loss: | 4095; Time Frame: 12 months
Delivery Z-Score
Data Snapshot
Spot Price
Beta
12M Avg Price (|)
12M Avg Volume (|)
3M Avg Roll (%)
HV 30 Day (% Annualised)
4864
0.61
3757
959703
92%
58.9
Despite high volatility in the stock
delivery Z score remained low. Recent
declines provides better risk reward
at current levels.
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Since September 2020, Apollo Hospitals has continuously found
support near its mean+1.5*sigma levels. It has seen a sharp move in
the last couple of months as expectations are building up for inclusion
in the Nifty. With liquidity flows likely to remain higher, stocks are
likely to perform better. Currently, the stock is trading near its
mean+1.5*sigma levels where we expect the stock to witness fresh
buying interest
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
19
Quant Yearly Picks performance of 2021
Stocks
Sectors
Initiation Range
Target
Stoploss
Remarks
Bharti Airtel
Telecom
490-510
620
440
Profits Booked
Biocon
Pharmaceutcials
445-465
580
385
Stoploss Triggered
Tech Mahindra
Technology
900-930
1160
775
Profits Booked
Bharat Forge
Automobiles
525-550
690
455
Target Achieved
Petronet LNG
Oil&Gas
248-258
325
218
Stoploss Triggered
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Quant Yearly Picks performance - 2021
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
20
Head – Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road no.7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Pankaj Pandey
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
21
Disclaimer
We /I, Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Nandish Patel BCOM, Dipesh Dedhia BCOM, MBA (Finance), Siddhesh Jain, BFM, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that
above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.
ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and
with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest
private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on
www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of
companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the
recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.
Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary
with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational
purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at
the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to
your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific
recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign
exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk
Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings,
corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies
mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in
whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
December 23, 2021
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
22
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in
any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis,
ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been
suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.