Quarterly Update Q2FY22 Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd Sustained higher margins, robust volume growth KIMS’ reported decent set of numbers with Revenue (INR 412cr up 1% YoY) miss our estimates by ~3%, however, EBITDA/PAT reported ahead of our estimates by 2%/10% to INR129cr/INR84cr. KIMS saw normalization of business as COVID related cases came down and elective surgeries picked up. Increased Patient flow, new doctor additions in existing specialties, consistent growth in Heart and Lung transplant programme & increasing normalization of business to pre-COVID levels resulted flat revenue. Gross profit grew 4% YoY & down 10% QoQ to INR 326cr in Q2FY22 with gross margin expanded by 280bps YoY to 79.2%. EBITDA margin came in at record level of 31.3% (v/s est. of 29.7%), mainly on account of tighter control on medical consumption cost, high occupancy and robust IP/OP volume. The acquired asset reported significant improvement in EBITDA margin to 20.7% in H1FY22 (vs 16.8% in FY21). KIMS reported record PAT of INR 84cr, on account of higher EBITDA margin and lower finance cost (down 58% YoY). Maintain ‘BUY’. Revenue sustained with higher volume KIMS’ Q2FY22 revenue was flat YoY even after significant reduction in COVID business, mainly on account of increase in volume and occupancy. IP/OP volume increased by 25%/55% YoY and 14%/54% QoQ and also occupancy increased to 59.8% from 55% in Q2FY21, mainly on account of increase in specialized treatment with the normalization, which was visible with the higher occupancy in its matured facilities. Revenue contribution from cash & insurance patients coming back to normal level of 60%/18% in Q2FY22 against 64%/23% in Q1FY22, which also impacted ARPOB as corporate/Arogyasri contribution increased to 11%/10% from 6%/8% in Q1FY22. KIMS reported ARPOB of INR 24,877 (down 6% YoY & 9% QoQ) and ARPP to INR 114,644 (down 19% YoY & 23% QoQ) mainly due to reduction in COVID cases. However, H1FY21 ARPOB was INR 25,460 (up 24% from FY21). Further, KIMS has guided for ARPOB to sustain around INR24,000-25,000, with improvement in volume. Average length of stay decreased to 4.6 days in Q2FY22 (v/s 5.5 days in Q1FY22 and 5.1 days in Q4FY21) with the normalization in business, which restricted the fall in ARPOB, and expected to come back to pre-COVID level of 4.3 days. Praveen Sahay Research Analyst praveen.sahay@edelweissfin.com Ajit Sahu Research Analyst ajit.sahu@edelweissfin.com CMP: INR 1,218 Rating: BUY Target Price: INR 1,651 Upside: 36% Bloomberg: 52-week range (INR): M cap (INR cr): Promoter Holding (%) KIMS:IN 938 / 1,398 9,401 38,84 Higher EBITDA margin to sustain with the pickup in non-COVID business KIMS recorded higher EBITDA margin of 31.3% in Q2FY22 and expected to maintain it in coming quarters. Non-Covid revenue/EBITDA stood at ~INR383cr/INR121cr (v/s est. INR380cr/INR118cr). EBITDA margin of KIMS’ matured/acquired assets in tier-II and III cities reached 24.1%/20.7% in H1FY22. Valuation and outlook: Maintain ‘BUY’ rating KIMS reported good improvement in non-COVID business in Q2FY22. We maintain our positive view on KIMS, on account of robust growth in non-COVID volume & improvement in occupancy, maintained higher margins with sustained focus on operational efficiency and strong expansion plans. The net cash at the end of quarter stood at INR 395cr (gross debt of INR 50cr). KIMS expected to pay INR 230cr (first tranche of acquisition cost) for Sunshine Hospitals acquisition in near term, even after that company has net cash. KIMS’s strong expansion plan for addition of ~2,300 beds over 36-48 months will be funded through mix of internal accrual and borrowing, with maintaining D/E at restricted level. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a target price of INR1,651/share. Year to March (Consol) Net Revenues EBITDA Net profit EPS (INR) EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%) Q2FY22 412 129 84 10.5 31.3% 20.5% Edelweiss Wealth Research Q2FY21 %Chg. YoY 410 141 90 11.6 34.5% 22.0% 0.5 -8.8 -6.5 -9.4 Q1FY22 473 144 92 11.5 30.4% 19.4% %Chg. QoQ -13.0 -10.4 -8.4 -8.4 H1FY22 885 272 176 22.0 30.8% 19.9% H1FY21 % Change 611 177 99 12.8 29.0% 16.2% 44.9 53.9 77.9 Date: November 11, 2021 1 Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd Q2FY22 Result Highlights Q2FY22 Q2FY21 %Chg. YoY Q1FY22 %Chg. QoQ H1FY22 H1FY21 % Change 412 410 0.5 473 -13.0 885 611 44.9 86 96 -11.3 112 -23.9 198 139 41.9 Gross Profit 326 313 4.2 361 -9.6 687 471 45.8 Operating expenses 197 172 14.8 217 -9.1 415 294 40.8 EBITDA 129 141 -8.8 144 -10.4 272 177 53.9 31 34 -9.3 30 3.0 31 52 -41.1 Particulars (INR cr) Net Revenues Cost of goods sold EBITDA margin Depreciation and amortization 18 16 10.5 17 6.2 35 33 5.6 111 125 -11.4 127 -12.6 237 144 65.2 Interest expenses 3 7 -58.2 6 -54.3 9 16 -42.6 Other income 5 2 254.7 4 26.5 10 6 64.2 EBIT PBT 113 119 -5.3 125 -9.1 238 133 78.1 Provision for tax 29 29 -1.4 33 -11.1 61 34 78.5 Core profit 84 90 -6.5 92 -8.4 176 99 77.9 0 0 176 99 Extraordinary Items Profit after tax 84 90 -6.5 92 -8.4 COGS 20.8 23.5 23.7 22.4 22.8 Operating expenses 48.0 42.0 45.9 46.9 48.2 EBITDA 31.3 34.5 30.4 30.8 29.0 Reported net profit 20.5 22.0 19.4 19.9 16.2 Tax rate (%) 25.5 24.5 26.1 25.8 25.8 Q2FY22 Q2FY21 Chg. YoY Q1FY22 %Chg. QoQ 24,877 26,404 -5.8% 27,289 -8.8% ARPP (INR) 114,644 142,025 -19.3% 149,132 -23.1% IP volume 36,205 28,865 25.4% 31,709 14.2% OP volume 280,385 181,201 54.7% 182,499 53.6% 4.6 NA 5.5 -0.9 77.9 As % of net revenues Particulars ARPOB (INR) ALOS (days) Edelweiss Wealth Research 2 Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd Q2FY22 Result Highlights Previous Outlook Acquisition Update: KIMS has communicated earlier for its inorganic expansion plans which will be adjacent to its core markets of AP and Telangana and this acquisition is fully in-line with the company’s strategy, which will further strengthen its position in its core market (AP & Telangana). KIMS acquired 51% stake in Sunshine in similar line to its earlier acquisitions, to maintain a culture of ownership of doctors and also doctors’ equity participation in the company keep the cost restricted. We believe that the acquisition was at reasonable valuation and will accelerate the growth momentum for the company. However, lower operating margins is cause of concern which we believe KIMS will improve in future with the consolidation. Overall, the acquisition deal is expected to be EPS accretive. We have consolidated Sunshine financials from FY23 onwards and also introduced FY24 estimates for KIMS. At CMP, the stock is trading at 19x/14x/13x FY22E/FY23E/FY24E EV/EBITDA. Maintain BUY. Q1FY22: KIMS reported strong Q1FY22 numbers on the back of Covid/vaccination businesses. KIMS will continue to benefit from its regional market leadership, strong cash flow generation and sustained focus on operational efficiency and capacity expansion. We believe KIMS is an attractive play in the booming healthcare services market due to its (a) planned capex for addition of 1,500 beds over 15-48 months, (b) growth in core revenue, (c) industry leading margins, and (d) reasonable valuations. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR1,535/share, valuing it at 23x FY23E EV/EBITDA. Acquisition Update Edelweiss Wealth Research Q1FY22 3 Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd Financials Income statement (Consolidated) (₹ cr.) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Income from operations 1123 1330 1640 2323 2423 Direct costs 278 289 371 525 548 Employee costs 198 220 271 395 412 Other expenses 595 670 812 1208 1241 Total operating expenses 873 959 1183 1733 1788 EBITDA 249 371 458 590 635 71 70 72 95 115 179 301 386 495 520 44 32 20 31 49 Depreciation and amortisation EBIT Interest expenses Other income Profit before tax Provision for tax 6 10 6 11 20 141 279 372 475 491 25 70 94 120 124 Core profit Extraordinary items 115 1 209 0 278 0 356 0 367 0 Profit after tax Minority Interest 116 4 209 -4 278 -3 356 -11 367 -13 Share from associates Adjusted net profit 0 120 0 205 0 275 0 345 0 354 7 8 8 8 8 16 26 34 43 44 7 8 8 8 8 Equity shares outstanding (mn) EPS (INR) basic Diluted shares (Cr) EPS (INR) fully diluted 16 26 34 43 44 Dividend per share 0 0 0 0 0 Dividend payout (%) 0 0 0 0 0 Common size metrics- as % of net revenues (INR crs) Year to March FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Operating expenses 77.8 72.1 72.1 74.6 73.8 6.3 5.2 4.4 4.1 4.7 Depreciation Interest expenditure 4.0 2.4 1.2 1.3 2.0 EBITDA margins 22.2 27.9 27.9 25.4 26.2 Net profit margins 10.7 15.4 16.8 14.8 14.6 Year to March FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenues 22.3 18.5 23.3 41.6 4.3 194.9 48.7 23.4 28.9 7.6 Growth metrics (%) EBITDA PBT -1033.8 98.5 33.2 27.8 3.3 Net profit -336.8 81.4 33.2 27.8 3.3 EPS -351.9 63.5 30.4 25.3 2.8 Edelweiss Wealth Research 4 Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd Financials Balance sheet (INR Cr.) Equity share capital Preference Share Capital (INR Cr) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E 74 78 80 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves & surplus 523 786 1261 1606 1960 Shareholders funds 598 864 1341 1686 2040 Borrowings (including lease) 369 240 90 380 380 Minority interest 13 12 12 12 12 Sources of funds 980 1116 1443 2078 2433 Gross block 1103 1188 1188 1538 1988 Depreciation 187 257 329 424 539 Net block 916 931 859 1114 1449 2 9 82 50 50 Total fixed assets 918 940 941 1164 1499 Unrealised profit 0 0 0 0 0 Investments 0 0 0 0 0 Capital work in progress Inventories 30 24 44 95 100 132 110 225 318 332 Cash and equivalents 46 284 506 886 904 Loans and advances 11 19 19 19 19 Sundry debtors Other current assets 0 0 0 0 0 Total current assets 220 437 794 1319 1354 Sundry creditors and others 157 231 270 382 398 7 27 27 27 27 Provisions Total CL & provisions 164 258 296 408 425 Net current assets 55 179 498 910 929 Net Deferred tax -34 5 5 5 5 Misc expenditure 41 -8 0 0 0 980 1116 1443 2078 2433 80 111 168 211 255 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E 114 209 278 356 367 Add: Depreciation 71 70 72 95 115 Add: Misc expenses written off 24 49 -8 0 0 -12 -39 0 0 0 4 -4 -3 -11 -13 200 284 339 440 469 -1 -115 97 32 1 Operating cash flow 202 399 242 408 468 Less: Capex 126 92 73 318 450 76 307 170 90 18 Uses of funds Book value per share (INR) Cash flow statement Year to March Net profit Add: Deferred tax Add: Others Gross cash flow Less: Changes in W. C. Free cash flow Edelweiss Wealth Research (INR crs) 5 Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd Financials Ratios Year to March ROAE (%) ROACE (%) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E 21 28 25 23 19 18.2 28.4 30.2 28.2 23 Debtors (days) 43 30 50 50 50 Current ratio 1.3 1.7 2.7 3.2 3 Debt/Equity 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0 Inventory (days) 10 7 10 15 15 Payable (days) Cash conversion cycle (days) Debt/EBITDA 51 63 60 60 60 2 -27 0 5 5 1 1 0 1 1 Adjusted debt/Equity 1 0 0 0 0 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Valuation parameters Year to March Diluted EPS (INR) 16 26 34 43 44 -352 64 30 25 3 CEPS (INR) 25 35 43 55 59 Diluted P/E (x) 76 46 35 28 28 Price/BV(x) 15 11 7 6 5 EV/Sales (x) 8 7 6 4 4 38 25 20 16 15 7 8 8 8 8 Y-o-Y growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Diluted shares O/S Basic EPS Basic PE (x) Dividend yield (%) Edelweiss Wealth Research 16 26 34 43 44 75.6 46.2 35.5 28.3 28 0 0 0 0 0 6 Edelweiss Broking Limited, 1st Floor, Tower 3, Wing B, Kohinoor City Mall, Kohinoor City, Kirol Road, Kurla(W) Board: (91-22) 4272 2200 Vinay Khattar Head Research vinay.khattar@edelweissfin.com VINAY KHATTAR Rating Expected to Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period Hold appreciate between 5-15% over a 12-month period Reduce Return below 5% over a 12-month period Digitally signed by VINAY KHATTAR Date: 2021.11.11 22:22:09 +05'30' 160 140 (Indexed) 120 100 80 60 40 20 KIMS Edelweiss Wealth Research 28-Oct-21 18-Oct-21 8-Oct-21 28-Sep-21 18-Sep-21 8-Sep-21 29-Aug-21 19-Aug-21 9-Aug-21 30-Jul-21 20-Jul-21 10-Jul-21 30-Jun-21 0 Sensex 7 Disclaimer Edelweiss Broking Limited ("EBL" or "Research Entity") is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") and is licensed to carry on the business of broking, depository services and related activities. 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This research report has been prepared and distributed by Edelweiss Broking Limited ("Edelweiss") in the capacity of a Research Analyst as per Regulation 22(1) of SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014 having SEBI Registration No.INH000000172. Edelweiss Wealth Research 9